ALBERT

Description: Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.

Description: This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Description: Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%.

Description: Airborne influenza virus transmission is depending on climate. Infected individuals are able to travel to any country in the world within one day. In this study we combine these two insights to investigate the influence of climate change on pandemic spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases, like influenza. Well-known recent examples for pandemics are severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2002/2003) and H1N1 (Influenza A virus subtype, 2009), which have demonstrated the vulnerability of a strongly connected world.

Description: GRASP (Governance of Resources for Arctic Sustainable Policy and Practice) is an inter- and transdisciplinary research project jointly developed in 2014 by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) and the Jade University of Applied Sciences

Description: The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a fundamental component of all life on Earth. Due to the considerable increase in emissions, particularly industrial emissions, CO2has, however, become a waste product and greenhouse gas damaging to the climate and, consequently, a threat to both humanity and nature. For almost 50years, chemical research has been pursuing the idea of making the CO2 molecule useful as a raw material(Aresta and Dibenedetto 2010). Within the context of the oil crises of the 1970s, and contingent on the currentneed for climate protection, there has been a rise in global interest in the research and development oftechnologies which could make CO2 useful as a source of carbon. Several regions in Europe, but also in North America and Asia have started sponsorship programmes to support the development of such technologies (BMBF 2014, Climate-KIC 2014, U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] n.d.).The goal of these efforts is to integrate this climatedamaging gas in extremely diverse industrial productionprocesses as a raw material. The use of CO2 would not only allow for the production of useful raw materials and products, such technologies could alsoemulate a natural carbon cycle (Peters et al. 2011). At the same time, they have the potential to reduce the consumption of other fossil resources and, in so doing, they might not only contribute to the extension of the resource base, but also reduce missionswhilst providing protection for natural resources (von der Assen et al. 2013). Technological breakthroughs and advancements are currently observedin carbon capture technologies in the catalysis and transformation of CO2 (Aresta 2010, Mikkelsen et al. 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Styring et al. 2011, Wilcox 2012, Smit et al. 2014, Klankermayer and Leitner 2015), and the first innovative CO2-based productsare already coming onto the markets.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: Here we present the results of the demonstration tests that took place in Summer 2018 during the final months of the four-year Best Paths project. Details will be given on the assembly and finalizing of the demonstrator installation as well as the testing strategy defined for HVDC superconducting cables and adopted in the project. Some possibilities of installation within the electricity grids will also be discussed.

Description: Current efforts at the International Seabed Authority to develop regulations pertaining to the exploitation of deep seabed minerals would benefit from a moment of reflection on the future governance of these resources. As the Area and its resources have been declared a common heritage of mankind, this principle must be taken into account when designing the future governance of activities in the Area.

Description: The second session on integrated ocean management was kicked-off by Sebastian Unger (IASS Potsdam). In his keynote presentation he highlighted the great political moment for moving towards integrated ocean governance, which could be even further advanced through (a) innovating instruments, (b) complementary strategies at national, regional and global scale, and (c) capacity-building and sustainable finance. In particular, he argued that the regional level could act as a broker for integration, as there are well-established institutions at regional level, where agreement can be reached more easily than at global level and which allows for a meaningful implementation of the ecosystem approach. In the discussion moderation by Management Board member Gert Verreet, discussants pointed out that in Europe, many of the institutions (e.g. at sea-basin level), instruments (e.g. Marine Spatial Planning) and commitment to integrated ocean management were already in place; however, a better implementation was necessary.

Description: In order to fulfill multiple sustainable development targets, most prominently human development, poverty eradication and climate change mitigation, African countries need infrastructure that cover basic needs while at the same time promote industrialization and value creation. G20 countries can support African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) incentivizing low carbon development by phasing out subsidies and eventually putting a price on carbon and (4) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments.

Description: Various geoengineering technologies that would deliberately alter the climate system have been proposed as a way to alleviate risks of global warming. Technologies that would shield incoming sunlight to cool the planet, so called solar radiation management (SRM), are particularly controversial. Considering insights from social studies of simulation modeling and research on expectations in science and technology, I argue that climate modeling has a central role in producing visions of SRM. I draw upon an empirical analysis of scientific research on SRM to examine how a creative play with technological ideas becomes possible through climate modeling. This enables scientists to project and study environmental impacts of speculative SRM methods in virtual experiments and to develop and refine ideas for adjusting sunlight. Hence, while climate models are used to improve scientific understandings of climate system behavior and to anticipate possible environmental impacts of SRM, they also become inventive tools, allowing scientists to envision novel ways of climate control and optimization. Given the importance of simulation studies to knowledge production on SRM, I critically reflect on the challenges that arise when visions about an engineered climate future are first and foremost produced in climate simulations.

Description: New energies form new energy landscapes (Apostol, Palmer, Pasqualetti, Smardon, & Sullivan, 2016; Gailing & Leibenath, 2013). Energy carriers converge within space and open up leeway and scope for design. Different spaces are affected: offshore and onshore, plains and mountains, waters, volcanic areas, coastal regions, deserts, etc. Different energy sources and types of technology are used and integrated through grids. Grids are increasingly governed as smart energy systems equipped with smart meters and apps etc., linked with smart mobility.

Description: With our attitudes and behavior, which aim at promoting sustainable behavior, we face a temporal dilemma – a temporal conflict between short-term and long-term interests. Accordingly, psychological time is an essential variable in understanding how people decide between options of short-term self-interest, which can be experienced at present, and long-term common interest, such as sustainable development with an outcome that lies far in the future. Present feelings are often so powerful that considerations of future events are neglected. Individuals differ in their emphasis on present and future dimensions. A stronger future orientation and a mindful present orientation are positive predictors of sustainable behavior; hedonistic and impulsive present orientations are negative predictors. We discuss the concept of the balanced time perspective as the propensity to consciously switch among the time orientations of past, present, and future. Fitting with their overall psychological profile, individuals with a balanced time perspective might display a range of sustainable attitudes and behaviors.

Description: Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of emitted VOCs. The box model simulations approximating stagnant conditions and the maximal ozone production chemical regime reproduced the 2 ppbv increase in ozone per degree Celsius from the observational and regional model data over central Europe. The simulated ozone–temperature relationship was more sensitive to mixing than the choice of chemical mechanism. Our analysis suggests that reductions in NOx emissions would be required to offset the additional ozone production due to an increase in temperature in the future.

Description: Known as "the Third Pole" (TP), the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains hold the largest aggregate of glaciers outside the pole regions. Recent monitoring and projection indicated an accelerated glacier decline and increasing glacier runoff. The long-range transport of South Asian atmospheric pollutants, including light absorbing impurities (LAIs) such as black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can absorb the solar radiation in the atmosphere and reduce albedo after being deposited onto the cryosphere, thereby promoting glacier and snow melt. A coordinated atmospheric pollution monitoring network has been launched covering the TP with emphasis on trans-Himalayan transects since 2013. TSP were collected for 24h at an interval of 3-6 days. BC/OC, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals were measured. Results reveal a consistent decrease in almost all analyzed parameters from south to north across the Himalayas. Geochemical signatures of carbonaceous aerosols indicate dominant sources of biomass burning and vehicle exhaust, in line with results of PAHs. Integrated analysis of satellite images and air mass trajectories suggest that the trans-boundary air pollution occurred episodically and concentrated in pre-monsoon seasons via upper air circulation, through-valley wind, and local convection. Simulation results showed that carbonaceous aerosols produced positive/negative shortwave radiative forcing in the atmosphere/ground surface. Aerosols increased surface air temperatures by 0.1-0.5℃ over the TP and decreased temperatures in South Asia during the monsoon season. Surface snow/ice samples were collected from benchmark glaciers to estimate the impacts of LAIs on glacier melt with model assistance. BC (37%) and MD (32%) contribute to the summer melting of Laohugou Glacier in the northern TP. MD (38%) contributed more glacier melt than BC (11%) on Zhadang Glacier in the southern TP. In the southeastern TP, BC and MD contribute to 30% of the total glacier melt, up to 350 mm w.e. yr-1. The monitoring network and ongoing studies point to trans-boundary pollution as an increasing stressor for the TP environment, and highlighted the link between atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes as well as other surface ecosystems over high mountain regions.

Description: The "Berlin Air quality and Ecosystem Research: Local and long-range Impact of anthropogenic and Natural hydrocarbons" (BAERLIN2014) campaign was conducted during the 3 summer months (June–August) of 2014. During this measurement campaign, both stationary and mobile measurements were undertaken to address complementary aims. This paper provides an overview of the stationary measurements and results that were focused on characterization of gaseous and particulate pollution, including source attribution, in the Berlin–Potsdam area, and quantification of the role of natural sources in determining levels of ozone and related gaseous pollutants. Results show that biogenic contributions to ozone and particulate matter are substantial. One indicator for ozone formation, the OH reactivity, showed a 31 % (0.82 ± 0.44 s−1) and 75 % (3.7 ± 0.90 s−1) contribution from biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for urban background (2.6 ± 0.68 s−1) and urban park (4.9 ± 1.0 s−1) location, respectively, emphasizing the importance of such locations as sources of biogenic NMVOCs in urban areas. A comparison to NMVOC measurements made in Berlin approximately 20 years earlier generally show lower levels today for anthropogenic NMVOCs. A substantial contribution of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol to PM10 concentrations was quantified. In addition to secondary aerosols, source apportionment analysis of the organic carbon fraction identified the contribution of biogenic (plant-based) particulate matter, as well as primary contributions from vehicles, with a larger contribution from diesel compared to gasoline vehicles, as well as a relatively small contribution from wood burning, linked to measured levoglucosan.

Description: This paper discusses proposals for tabular standards in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In particular, we focus on Keynes’ proposal for an international tabular standard (ITS) as the gold standard unravelled in the 1930s. The paper explains the origins of Keynes’ ITS proposal which pegged the value of an international reserve to a broad index of primary commodities, weighted in terms of their value in world production. We argue that the ITS should be viewed as an important and enduring component of Keynes’ ideal long-run vision for anchoring the international monetary system, even post-Bretton Woods.

Description: In four short meditations, approaches to time and the future are explored through both a time and futures lens. A compressed poetic form of expression is used to distil the essence of the processes involved. The shapes emerge in the writing and once discernable they begin to guide the choice of words. Theory becomes a playful activity that draws on a deep and extensive pool of time theory. The first meditation expresses the difficulty for conventional social science to engage with the future. The second depicts temporal relations of modernity that encompass features shared by humanity across the ages. The third piece explores time encoded in nature, money and society. The last meditation engages with approaches to sustainability and indicates the significant differences that arise with the respective standpoints of the present future and future present. It closes the circle back to the first meditation on disciplinary challenges presented by the temporal and engagement with future presents.

Description: This chapter explores aspects of the relationship between the financial system and resource industries, starting with general criteria for sound investment and an overview of the various materials and resources that need to be distinguished. To this end, the focus is first placed on fossil energy commodities that do not lend themselves to management in a circular economy, before the metals and mining sector and its regulation are presented. The global transformation of energy systems presents an opportunity to phase out a non-circular industry and replace it with one that is characterised less by commodities for consumption and more by commodities for the manufacture of energy conversion equipment and durable investment goods. Combining the energy and mineral resource industries, the impact of the decline of fossil energy industries is discussed, including the implications for international trade, economic activity, public finance and the financial sector. The chapter concludes with the general argument that the financial system is affected by changes in the resource industries and their shift to a circular economy, and that it can facilitate that shift if the political, legal and regulatory framework is right. Finally, a suite of criteria for investment in support of resource sector transformation and the circular economy is proposed.

Description: This report is intended to provide a review of the relevant governance frameworks currently in place for the management of high seas biodiversity in these regions. The report uses the issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations for a new legally binding BBNJ agreement under the United Nations, as well as selected Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 targets, as a lens through which to assess progress towards conservation and sustainable use.

Description: Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution  ∼  20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2.5 by 10–60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20 % for PM2.5 and between 10 and 25 % for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO3−, were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models' predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models' skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model–measurement comparison.

Description: The Academic Working Group (AWG) on International Governance of Climate Engineering is aninternational group of senior academics who have been assembled to formulate perspectives on theinternational governance of climate engineering research and potential deployment, with a focus on proposedsolar radiation management (SRM) technologies. The AWG was convened by the Forum for ClimateEngineering Assessment.The group has been tasked with:1. Assessing the existing SRM governance conversation;2. Identifying key debates and open questions;3. Providing a fresh, authoritative analysis of governance pathways; and4. Producing crisp, policy-relevant governance recommendations.The first meeting of the AWG took place March 6-9, 2016 at the School of International Service, AmericanUniversity in Washington, DC and was focused on providing the working group members with a high-levelintroduction to the SRM conversation. More details about the meeting can be found here.The second meeting of the AWG took place September 22-24, 2016 at the Pocantico Meeting Center of theRockefeller Brothers Fund in Tarrytown, New York. As is the case with all materials resulting from meetingsheld at The Pocantico Center, the views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the RockefellerBrothers Fund, its trustees, or its staff.The meeting was principally concerned with finalizing the organization and crafting of the high-level contentof the working group’s joint report. The following report details the main points of discussion at the secondAWG meeting. It then outlines the main outcomes from the event and indicates the groups’ next steps.

Description: This brief seeks to identify approaches to SSC results assessment led or supported by Governments of the South. It explores how some Southern partners are conducting initiatives to assess the results of SSC and whether and how these initiatives are affecting the way they conduct their SSC. Finally, the brief reflects upon the potential of such initiatives to foster the contribution of South-South cooperation to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development and Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Description: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this paper argues that African countries, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Description: Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar.

Description: This handbook offers the first comprehensive, state-of-the-field guide to past weather and climate and their role in human societies. Bringing together dozens of international specialists from the sciences and humanities, this volume describes the methods, sources, and major findings of historical climate reconstruction and impact research. Its chapters take the reader through each key source of past climate and weather information and each technique of analysis; through each historical period and region of the world; through the major topics of climate and history and core case studies; and finally through the history of climate ideas and science. Using clear, non-technical language, The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History serves as a textbook for students, a reference guide for specialists and an introduction to climate history for scholars and interested readers.

Description: In a monetary economy of production, Say’s law is not verified for many reasons. On the basis of these refutations, it is possible to state that the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process is structurally lower than the value of production. We study here the dynamics of such an economy and obtain two main results. First, the long-term debt of this economy has to increase along a growth phase to enable demand to grow at the same pace as supply. Secondly, due to the repayment of this debt, the gap between supply and the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process widens along a growth phase.

Description: Turkey’s energy policy focuses on the promotion of coal and nuclear power. Althoughsustainable energy legislation is in place and respective targets have been defined,implementation is lagging behind and sustainable energy takes a back seat in thecountry’s political debate. Internationally, Turkey is concerned with regional (energy)geopolitics much more than with sustainability. In G20 negotiations on sustainableenergy, Turkey might emerge as a laggard, particularly in matters related to the reductionof coal use.

Description: Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC) on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of  〈  2.5 µm) and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600 ppm result in  ∼  3600 [95 % CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb) of non-CO2 aviation emissions as −13.3 mW m−2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect) and tropospheric ozone.Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC  =  15 ppm) has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by  ∼  620 [95 % CI: 230–1020] mortalities a−1 and increase REcomb by +7.0 mW m−2.We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000 ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE). We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud condensation nuclei, reducing the aviation-induced CAE by a factor of 10. Applying high FSCs at aviation cruise altitudes combined with ULSJ fuel at lower altitudes results in reduced aviation-induced mortality and increased negative RE compared to the baseline aviation scenario.

Description: The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and is home to numerous small islands. Many of these have already vanished, and those remaining are continuing to lose ground. Over a few decades several of these small places were abandoned as the waters started to roll over the lands around the mid-nineteenth century. Houses were torn down, while some people moved within or to other islands and others migrated to solid ground when other measures failed to secure the small islands. Some people left earlier than others, but there were moments when it became difficult to retain the society of the islands. By telling the story of the Chesapeake Islands, this paper outlines the reactions of individuals and society to changes in their living environment. The aim of the article is thereby to explore the variables influencing human thresholds to migration in times of changing environments. Societal factors, as well as natural stimuli, are explored that led to migration at a certain time and place. By drawing attention to the sinking islands in the Chesapeake, I advocate the consideration of examples from the Western Hemisphere in debates on island loss and migration.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: We formulate and elicit Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) for assessing possible characteristics of the 2030 German new passenger car fleet, including market shares of different vehicle types, CO2 emissions, user costs, and CO2 abatement costs for internal combustion engine vehicles including hybrid electric vehicles (ICE); plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV); and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Seven technology and environmental experts from the German Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) sector were elicited for key relationships and conditional probability values in the model, yielding seven distinct BBNs able to predict how different future technology, economic and policy scenarios will influence model projections. The 2030 scenarios include differing amounts of technological advancement in battery development, regulation, and fuel and electricity greenhouse gas intensities. Across the expert models, 2030 baseline fleet greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to be at 50–65% of 2008 new fleet emissions. They can be further reduced to 40–50% of the emissions of the 2008 new fleet through a combination of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, a larger share of biofuels in the fuel mix, and a stricter regulation of car CO2 emissions in the European Union. The experts' BBNs predict that the 2030 ICE will have lower user costs per kilometer than PHEV or BEV for most scenarios, and that ICE will remain the dominant vehicle type in the 2030 German new fleet. According to all of the experts' BBNs, CO2 abatement costs are negative for the 2030 ICE in all scenarios, but can be positive or negative for PHEV and BEV, depending on the expert model and scenario assumed. Critical areas where expert models agree and differ serve to highlight where reductions in uncertainty regarding future technology, economic, environmental and regulatory relationships are most needed to improve our ability to predict and anticipate future vehicle fleet composition and vehicle performance.

Description: India is undergoing structural urban and economic transitions and has set ambitiouspolicy targets to meet its rising energy needs for development. Expanding coal andrenewables are two important pillars of this undertaking and, since 2008, climate protectionis of increasing concern. India’s international engagements reflect these motivationsof both energy security and climate change, where India is increasingly engagingin transfer of clean and efficient energy technologies to developing countries like itself.

Description: The German Energiewende – literally translated as “energy turnaround” – is an outstandingexample of a national effort to transform an energy system. Driven by publicopposition to nuclear energy, and by efforts to combat climate change, the Energiewendebuilds on a massive expansion of renewable energy as well as improvements inenergy efficiency. So far, efforts have focused on the electricity sector, while progressin the heating and transport sector has been very limited. In addition, Germany alsohas a long track record of promoting sustainable energy with its international energypolicies.

Description: Air pollution in the Kathmandu valley is influenced by a variety of domestic and industrial sources such as garbage and biomass burning, brick kilns, and vehicular emissions. During non-monsoon seasons, the air quality index is considered hazardous, and consequently, air pollution is a leading cause of death in Nepal. During winter and spring of 2017-18, part two of the Nepal Ambient Monitoring and Source Testing Experiment (NAMaSTE-2) involved stationary sampling of gas and aerosol phase species in four locations across Nepal as well as 14 mobile measurement drives throughout the Kathmandu valley, Nepal. This work presents spatially and temporally resolved aerosol mass spectrometry and gas phase measurements from a mobile laboratory capable of high time resolution aerosol composition measurements. Spatially resolved aerosol composition results highlight chemical differences in aerosol due to strong regional sources, topography, and meteorology. For example, aerosol composition in regions with a high concentration of brick kilns had enhanced concentrations of sulfate aerosol, consistent with emission factors measured from brick kilns. Similarly, small towns outside of Kathmandu exhibited strongly elevated concentrations of chloride and organic aerosol due to garbage burning. These results are important for apportionment of the aerosol burden in the valley to their sources, and the consequent reduction of aerosol emissions.

Description: Integration and harmonization of large spatial data sets is not only since the introduction of the spatial data infrastructure INSPIRE a big issue. The process of extracting and combining spatial data from heterogeneous source formats, transforming that data to obtain the required quality for particular purposes and loading it into a data store, are common tasks. The procedure of Extraction, Transformation and Loading of data is called ETL process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can take over many of these tasks but often they are not suitable for processing large datasets. ETL tools can make the implementation and execution of ETL processes convenient and efficient. One reason for choosing ETL tools for data integration is that they ease maintenance because of a clear (graphical) presentation of the transformation steps. Developers and administrators are provided with tools for identification of errors, analyzing processing performance and managing the execution of ETL processes. Another benefit of ETL tools is that for most tasks no or only little scripting skills are required so that also researchers without programming background can easily work with it. Investigations on ETL tools for business approaches are available for a long time. However, little work has been published on the capabilities of those tools to handle spatial data. In this work, we review and compare the open source ETL tools GeoKettle and Talend Open Studio in terms of processing spatial data sets of different formats. For evaluation, ETL processes are performed with both software packages based on air quality data measured during the BÄRLIN2014 Campaign initiated by the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS). The aim of the BÄRLIN2014 Campaign is to better understand the sources and distribution of particulate matter in Berlin. The air quality data are available in heterogeneous formats because they were measured with different instruments. For further data analysis, the instrument data has been complemented by other georeferenced data provided by the local environmental authorities. This includes both vector and raster data on e.g. land use categories or building heights, extracted from flat files and OGC-compliant web services. The requirements on the ETL tools are now for instance the extraction of different input datasets like Web Feature Services or vector datasets and the loading of those into databases. The tools also have to manage transformations on spatial datasets like to work with spatial functions (e.g. intersection, union) or change spatial reference systems. Preliminary results suggest that many complex transformation tasks could be accomplished with the existing set of components from both software tools, while there are still many gaps in the range of available features. Both ETL tools differ in functionality and in the way of implementation of various steps. For some tasks no predefined components are available at all, which could partly be compensated by the use of the respective API (freely configurable components in Java or JavaScript).

Description: Inhabitants of Pacific Small Island States are facing multiple socio-ecological pressures and the impacts of global climate change aggravate the situation. In order to reduce present and future vulnerabilities it is necessary to address the causes of such detrimental alterations and to find sustainable ways to cope with present and projected challenges. Studying people’s perspectives and agency, or in other words, their perceptions and behaviour, can help to better understand how sustainable practices can be motivated and can contribute to an increased efficiency of mitigation and adaptation projects. Despite increasing research related to environmental changes and their resulting impacts for the Pacific island region, the breadth of perspectives of local people is often under-represented in science and policy. This thesis therefore illustrates the role and diversity of perceptions that guide human behaviour in the context of addressing environmental challenges. Based on a summary of theoretical considerations three major areas of relevant perceptions have been identified. These include perceptions related to environmental change, coping strategies, and social processes. In a survey study (N=180) perceptions of climate-related environmental changes and ways of addressing resulting impacts have been investigated in Tuvalu, Samoa, and Tonga. The results reveal that the respondents perceive a multitude of alterations and attribute them mainly to irresponsible human behaviour. The perceptions of the intensity of change and the degree of perceived impacts vary within and between island states. A certain fraction of this variance can be explained by geographical and climatic differences between the islands and sociodemographic variables. People’s perspectives on their ability to cope with the impacts on their lives reflect not only the diversity of measures that locals use, but also their will to adapt and the acknowledgement of their own responsibilities. However, the perception of lacking skills, opportunities, and low self-efficacy are likely to hinder effective adaptation. Sustainable ways of adaptation could therefore be encouraged by offering information about effective measures, skills to implement them, and the availability of materials. Here, the study results regarding the expectations that locals have of other actors, such as governments, NGOs, and the church, can be helpful for developing coherent support. The findings could be incorporated by local organizations to a) further identify specific needs of communities, b) work on tailored information about environmental change and effective coping strategies, and c) find ways for approaching and motivating different demographic groups. Thereby, this dissertation could contribute to an enhanced understanding of the complexity of local perspectives on current developments and to advance strategies for a transition to more sustainable lifestyles.

Description: The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000–2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone–relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (mo3 − T, climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty.

Description: The background, purpose, and design of this special section are briefly explained in this introductory article. Three aspects emerged from the articles in this special section and are highlighted to provide a frame of reference for the reader: (1) a paradigm shift towards adaptive and integrative disaster risk governance; (2) a framework that situates adaptive and integrative risk governance in the context of transformation toward sustainability; and (3) the introduction of “implementation science” as a concept, method, and emerging field that brings natural and social sciences, engineering, and humanities jointly to bear in risk mitigation and adaptation.

Description: Tenders are a fast spreading instrument to attract and procure new generation capacity from renewable energy sources. However, there is a need for current analysis of experiences as in many countries tenders were introduced only few years ago. The objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date comparison of tender results for wind power and photovoltaics in Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa. We analyze and discuss rates of completion, market concentration and auction prices, based on data and literature research as well as expert interviews. Data on project status shows that rates of on-schedule completion are well below 100% ranging between 14% in Brazil and 41% in South Africa (wind). However, final rates of completion of 100% are possible (South Africa). With exception of France current data suggests cancellation rates of less than 5%. A systematic connection between project cancellations and the instrument of tenders could not be identified. The market share of the five largest owners differs largely between the countries and ranges from 33% (Italy) to 70% (South Africa). Despite the high level in South Africa, the significant oversubscription of tender volumes suggests that free price formation likely was not constrained. Nevertheless, small actors (〈50 MW total capacity) are rare in Brazil and South Africa. For Italy their share cannot be determined due to lack of data. In all countries except Brazil auction prices have continuously fallen by 33% (Italy, wind energy) to 76% (South Africa, photovoltaics). In Brazil, the auction price increased from auction round eight to 14 from 50% to 85% of the first auction price. However, auction prices are highly dependent on factors outside of the support scheme of tenders (e.g. interest rates), so that their evolution and level are not a suitable indicator to determine whether tenders lead to minimal support costs.

Description: Education is essential for economic and human development. The effectiveness of education governance, however, is severely inhibited by the condition of (limited) statehood. This chapter sets out to present an overview of the specific characteristics that define education governance, how its effectiveness is assessed, who the main actors are and how they and their interplay strengthens or inhibits education effectiveness in areas of limited statehood (ALS). Empirically, the chapter mainly draws upon sub-Saharan Africa as a region that is prone to exhibit ALS. After providing an overview of empirical findings on the effectiveness of the activities of state and non-state actors—and their joint activities—in ALS, the chapter concludes by formulating policy recommendations for increasing education effectiveness under conditions of limited statehood.

Description: Methane pyrolysis experiments using a quartz glass-steel bubble column reactor filled with liquid tin and cylindrical quartz glass rings serving as a packed bed were conducted at various liquid metal temperature levels in the range of 930–1175 °C. Besides the liquid metal temperature, special attention was paid to the influence of the feed gas volume flow rate in the range of 50–200 mln/min and the inlet feed gas dilution with nitrogen. Increasing liquid metal temperatures resulted in increasing hydrogen yields, leading to a maximum hydrogen yield of 78% at 1175 °C and 50 mln/min methane volume flow rate. Within all experimental runs, less than 1.5 mol-% intermediate products were detected in the product gas. The produced carbon appeared as a powder consisting of flake shaped agglomerations in the size range of 15–20 μm, wherein the particle size varied from 40 nm to 100 nm. During the experiments, the produced carbon was completely separated and accumulated at the top surface of the liquid metal. Only minor quantities were transported with the off gas stream. Within the liquid metal inventory, a thin carbon layer of about 10 μm, probably partly showing the formation of nanotubes, in the hot reaction zone, had been deposited on the quartz glass reactor wall.

Description: Risk perception differs from scientific or statistical assessment of risks. More than reflecting probability and magnitude, risk perception also includes aspects such as voluntariness of risk, possibility of personal control, or familiarity. It is also based on intuitive processes of making inferences, social values, and cultural beliefs. They follow specific patterns of semantic images and facilitate judgments about acceptability. Risk perceptions should not be seen as irrational responses to complex phenomena but rather as indicators for individual and societal concerns that require management and communication action.

Description: The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20% reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

Description: Japan’s energy policy remains dominated by the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011.While the government continues to be committed to nuclear power, its future is uncertain.Japanese greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly as nuclear energyhas been replaced by gas and coal. Ambitious policies in the transport sector promotebattery electric and fuel cell vehicles. The introduction of feed-in tariffs favoured thebuild-up of non-residential solar photovoltaics. As part of its climate commitments,Japan aims to further expand the use of renewables, improve energy efficiency andrestart nuclear energy.

Description: The Paris Agreement has been hailed as a victory for multilateralism. However, collective efforts to reach the Paris goals are presently insufficient to protect those adversely affected by the impacts of climate change who stand to suffer loss and damage (L&D). This calls for an assessment to what extent those most vulnerable and adversely affected by climate impacts can shape decisions on L&D. Taking an international law perspective, the article finds that despite a strong normative demand, the mandate and procedures for participation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are presently insufficient to lend an effective voice to affected communities in the negotiations. The article considers the suitability and political feasibility of the affected persons’ organisations (APO) model of representation in the climate regime, specifically in the context of the L&D negotiations. It argues that this model could in principle be useful to enhance the participation of communities vulnerable to and affected by L&D. However, the article finds that in order for the APO model to become a political reality in the specific context of L&D, conceptual challenges of who is affected need to be addressed and a shift in the framing of L&D is required.

Description: Air pollution resulting from rapid urbanization and associated human activities in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal has been leading to serious public health concerns over the past 2 decades. These concerns led to a multinational field campaign SusKat-ABC (Sustainable atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – Atmospheric Brown Clouds) that measured different trace gases, aerosols and meteorological parameters in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions during December 2012 to June 2013 to understand local- to regional-scale processes influencing air quality of the Kathmandu Valley. This study provides information about the regional distribution of ozone and some precursor gases using simultaneous in situ measurements from a SusKat-ABC supersite at Bode, Nepal, and two Indian sites: a high-altitude site, Nainital, located in the central Himalayan region and a low-altitude site, Pantnagar, located in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The diurnal variations at Bode showed a daytime buildup in O3 while CO shows morning and evening peaks. Similar variations (with lower levels) were also observed at Pantnagar but not at Nainital. Several events of hourly ozone levels exceeding 80ppbv were also observed at Bode. The CO levels showed a decrease from their peak level of about 2000ppbv in January to about 680ppbv in June at Bode. The hourly mean ozone and CO levels showed a strong negative correlation during winter (r2 = 0.82 in January and r2 = 0.71 in February), but this negative correlation gradually becomes weaker, with the lowest value in May (r2 = 0.12). The background O3 and CO mixing ratios at Bode were estimated to be about 14 and 325ppbv, respectively. The rate of change of ozone at Bode showed a more rapid increase ( ∼ 17ppbvh−1) during morning than the decrease in the evening (5–6ppbvh−1), suggesting the prevalence of a semi-urban environ. The lower CO levels during spring suggest that regional transport also contributes appreciably to springtime ozone enhancement in the Kathmandu Valley on top of the local in situ ozone production. We show that regional pollution resulting from agricultural crop residue burning in northwestern IGP led to simultaneous increases in O3 and CO levels at Bode and Nainital during the first week of May 2013. A biomass-burning-induced increase in ozone and related gases was also confirmed by a global model and balloon-borne observations over Nainital. A comparison of surface ozone variations and composition of light non-methane hydrocarbons among different sites indicated the differences in emission sources of the Kathmandu Valley and the IGP. These results highlight that it is important to consider regional sources in air quality management of the Kathmandu Valley.

Description: This IASS study considers the potential of the G20 to shape a global transition to sustainable energy, urgentlyneeded in order to achieve the UN’s climate and sustainability goals. The G20, a group of major emerging andindustrialised economies, is a high-level political forum that brings together a heterogeneous set of members.The Group carries great weight in international energy governance, and accounts for 80 percent of the world’s totalprimary energy consumption and 82 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Thus, decisions and actions ofthe G20 and its members have the capacity to significantly impact global energy systems.The study analyses the energy sector developments of 14 G20 members (Argentina, Brazil, China, European Union,France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the United States).Short case studies trace major trends and policy initiatives in the countries and identify both potential conflictsof interest and existing common ground within the G20. Each study offers an assessment of potential impulsesoriginating from the respective case, and how these might help foster international cooperation for advancing aglobal energy transition.

Description: Table of Contents1. Introduction and Main Insights from the Study - Sybille Roehrkasten, Sonja Thielges and Rainer Quitzow http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069032. The G20 and its Role in Global Energy Governance - Sybille Roehrkasten and Kirsten Westphal http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069073. Argentina: From an Energy Stalemate Towards Shale Gas Expansion and Creating a Renewables Market - Moïra Jimeno http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069104. Brazil: Long Tradition of Renewables-Based Energy Supply and Ethanol Diplomacy - Sybille Roehrkasten http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19069135. China: Emerging Global Power in Clean Energy? - Rainer Quitzow http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19088896. The EU: In the Midst of Crisis – Downgraded SustainableEnergy Ambitions - Kirsten Westphal http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108887. France: Reducing Nuclear Dominance and Promoting a Low-Carbon Energy System - Carole Mathieu http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108918. Germany: Promoting an Energiewende Domestically and Globally - Sybille Roehrkasten and Karoline Steinbacher http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:19108959. India: Meeting Energy Needs for Development While Addressing Climate Change - Madhura Joshi and Radhika Khosla http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191089710. Indonesia: A Long Way to Low-Carbon Development - Jens Marquardt http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090011. Japan: Dominated by Fukushima and Tackling Hard Problemsin Decarbonisation - Llewelyn Hughes http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090312. Russia: A Gas Superpower Striving for Nuclear Expansion and Starting to Support Renewables - Alexander Gusev http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191090713. Saudi Arabia: Oil as a Burden in the Struggle for Energy Diversification - Sebastian Sons http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091014. South Africa: Carbon-Intensive Economy and a Regional Renewable Energy Frontrunner - Agathe Maupin http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091315. Turkey: Great Potential, Missing Will - Jörn Richert http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:191091616. The United States: Domestic Transitions and International Leadership Towards Low-Carbon Energy - Karoline Steinbacher http://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:1910919

Description: Here, expert authors delineate approaches that can support both decision makers as well as their concerned populations in overcoming unwarranted fears and in elaborating policies based on scientific evidence. Four exemplary focus areas were chosen for in-depth review, namely: - The scientific basis of risk management - Risk management in the area of environmental and ecological policy - Risk management in radiation medicine - Risk management in context with digitalization and robotics General as well as specific recommendations are summarized in a memorandum. Fundamental thoughts on the topic are presented in the introductory part of the book. The idea for and contents of the book were developed at a workshop on “Sustainable Risk Management: How to manage risks in a sensible and responsible manner?” held in Feldafing at Lake Starnberg (Germany) on April 14 to 16, 2016. The book offers important information and advice for scientists, entrepreneurs, administrators and politicians.

Description: Multi-stakeholder participation (MSP) has become a central feature in several institutions and processes of global governance. Those who promote them trust that these arrangements can advance the deliberative quality of international institutions, and thereby improve the democratic quality, legitimacy and effectiveness of both the institutional landscape, as well as decisions made within it. This paper employs a heuristic framework to analyze the deliberative quality of MSP. Specifically, it applies Dryzek’s deliberative systems framework to the case of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS). The assessment shows that the CFS improves the deliberative quality of food security governance by including and facilitating the transmission of discourses from the public to the empowered spaces. However, the deliberative quality of CFS could be higher with stronger accountability mechanisms in place, more meta-deliberation and adoption of CFS outcomes at national and local levels. Reflecting on the limitations of using this heuristic framework to assess MSP, we conclude that the analysis would benefit from more explicit consideration of different forms of power that are part of the social relations between actors involved in such settings. By proposing this analytical approach, we expect to advance a heuristic framework for assessing deliberation in an international context of the growing importance of MSP in sustainability and global governance.

Description: What are the main challenges of capacity development in the marine context, and what are possible approaches to meet them? During the first UN Ocean Conference, a consortium of different collaborating institutions representing the scientific community, international development cooperation and civil society invited participants to exchange their experiences on enhancing capacities for the sustainable management and the use of the ocean and its resources. During the side event “Capacity development for sustainable ocean governance: Lessons learned from academia, policy and practice”, participants discussed the relevance of capacity development for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 14 (SDG14 – Life below water). Being practitioners in the field of capacity development themselves, participants contributed valuable insights according to their own experiences. This document summarizes the main points of the discussion: it briefly introduces the different concepts of capacity development and elaborates the main challenges and possible approaches according to the contributions made during the side event. In a last step, the document summarizes the conclusions drawn from the participants’ exchange of experiences.

Description: Puzzled by how geographical changes in the Arctic might cause changes in state behavior the authors of this article have been inspired to return to the roots of geopolitical reasoning. By combining insights from the intellectual roots of the geopolitical tradition with empirical data on geographical changes as well as policy changes in the Arctic today, we investigate the degree to which geopolitics, in the sense of geography influencing politics, is still a useful approach in the discipline of International Relations (IR). In limiting our primary focus to the state level, and investigating the period since the turn of the millennium, this article seeks to develop new knowledge concerning if, how, and to what extent geography matters in international politics. Our empirical investigation indicates that geographical changes in the Arctic have indeed had an effect on power relations among several states. Overall, this article shows that geography is an important factor in IR in the sense of enabling or empowering state actors. However, while it appears that physical geography is a possible factor in the cases analyzed to explain changes in identified power potentials, it does not always account for these changes on its own. Economic, political, legal, and historical factors also play a role in the observed power shifts.

Description: In an international context, auctions are becoming increasingly common as a support scheme for renewable energies. In this case study, we analyze the Brazilian experience with wind power in the period from 2009 to 2015 with regard to the development of auction prices, rates of completion and market concentration. Inflation-adjusted auction prices in Brazil decreased by 54% until the end of 2012, before subsequently growing again to 87% of the first round price. The declines in prices can be attributed to the increasing experience of actors and the increasing level of competition among project developers, investors and turbine manufacturers. Various factors played a role in the price increase, including both regulatory changes such as a modification of grid connection terms, as well as external factors such as the falling value of the Brazilian real against the US dollar. Only 14% of wind projects from the first eight auction rounds were completed on schedule. The reasons cited for this include delayed grid connections, delays resulting from environmental feasibility permits, supply bottlenecks for wind power plants, the bankruptcy of the turbine manufacturer IMPSA or delayed financing approval by the Brazilian development bank BNDES. However, the number of project cancellations is low to date, so that a final rate of completion of between 89% and 98% is likely to be achieved. The number of owners of wind power projects has increased from 16 to 49 actors. The market share of the five largest owners has declined from nearly 60% to 37%. The ratio of pre-qualified to awarded capacity was consistently at over five, and the Herfindahl Index suggests an unconcentrated market. These findings indicate that the level of competition is sufficient to ensure free price formation in the market. The owners are primarily large, financially strong project planners, energy providers or investment firms.

Description: Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures,increase of carbon storage, storm water control, and recreational space, as well as at poverty alleviation. Theseurban greening programs, however, do not take into account how closely human and natural systems are coupledin urban areas. Compared with the surroundings of cities, elevated temperatures together with high anthropogenicemissions of air and water pollutants are quite typical in urban systems. Urban and sub-urban vegetation respondto changes in meteorology and air quality and can react to pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead tounforeseen negative effects on air quality resulting from urban greening programs. The potential of emissions ofvolatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants toproduce ozone has long been recognized. This ozone formation potential increases under rising temperatures.Here we investigate how emissions of VOC from urban vegetation affect corresponding ground-level ozoneand PM10 concentrations in summer and especially during heat wave periods. We use the Weather Researchand Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks inthe Berlin-Brandenburg region, Germany during the two summers of 2006 (heat wave) and 2014 (referenceperiod). VOC emissions from vegetation are calculated by MEGAN 2.0 coupled online with WRF-CHEM. Ourpreliminary results indicate that the contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase bymore than twofold during heat wave periods. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas in thecontext of a changing climate and discuss potential tradeoffs of urban greening programs.

Description: This chapter analyses two groups of non-profit external non-state governance actors that are active in areas of limited statehood (ALS): international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs). After some examples of the collective goods these actors provide in contexts of limited statehood, their effectiveness is assessed in terms of output, outcome, and impact. It is found that in ALS, the activities of MSPs and INGOs can become part of the solution, but may also exacerbate existing problems. Empirical research shows that it is already demanding for INGOs and MSPs to produce good output in ALS, let alone broader impact. The analysis provides insights on the conditions under which INGOs and MSPs can—and cannot—successfully provide governance in ALS and how their activities impact limited statehood itself. Finally, the findings are discussed against the background of recent trends affecting governance by external state and non-state actors in ALS.

Description: A realistic simulation of physical and dynamical processes in the Arctic atmosphere and its feedbacks with the surface conditions is still a challenge for state-of-the-art Arctic climate models. This is of critical importance because studies of, for example, transport of pollutants from middle latitudes into the Arctic rely on the skill of the model in correctly representing atmospheric circulation including the key mechanisms and pathways of pollutant transport. In this work the performance of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) with two land surface model schemes (Noah and NoahMP) and two reanalysis data sets for creation of lateral boundary conditions (ERA-interim and ASR) is evaluated focusing on meteorological surface properties and atmospheric dynamics. This includes the position and displacement of the polar dome and other features characterizing atmospheric circulation associated to sea ice maxima/minima extent within the Eurasian Arctic. The model simulations analyzed are carried out at 15-km horizontal resolution over a period of five years (2008 to 2012). The WRF model simulations are evaluated against surface meteorological data from automated weather stations and vertical profiles from radiosondes. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main features of the atmospheric dynamics and vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere reasonably well. The influence of the choice of the reanalyses used as initial and lateral boundary condition and of the LSM on the model results is complex and no combination is found to be clearly superior in all variables analyzed. The model results show that a more sophisticated formulation of land surface processes does not necessarily lead to significant improvements in the model results. This suggests that other factors such as the decline of the Arctic sea ice, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, atmosphere-ocean interaction, and boundary layer processes are also highly important and can have a significant influence on the model results. The “best” configuration for simulating Arctic meteorology and processes most relevant for pollutant transport (ASR + NoahMP) is then used in a simulation with WRF including aerosols and chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate black carbon (BC) concentrations in and around the Arctic and to assess the role of the modeled atmospheric circulation in the simulated BC concentrations inside the Arctic domain. Results from simulations with chemistry are evaluated against aerosol optical depth from several Aeronet stations and BC concentrations and particle number concentrations from several stations from the EBAS database. The results with WRF-Chem show a strong dependency of the simulated BC concentration on the modeled meteorology and the transport of the pollutants around our domain. The results also show that biases in the modeled BC concentrations can also be related to the emission data. Significant improvements of the models and of our understanding of the impact of anthropogenic BC emissions on the Arctic strongly depends on the availability of suitable, long-term observational data of concentrations of BC and particulate matter, vertical profiles of temperature and humidity and wind.

Description: Climate change poses a range of current and future health risks that health professionals need to understand, track, and manage. However, conventional monitoring and evaluation (M&E) as practiced in the health sector, including the use of indicators, does not adequately serve this purpose. Improved indicators are needed in three broad categories: (1) vulnerability and exposure to climate-related hazards; (2) current impacts and projected risks; and (3) adaptation processes and health system resilience. These indicators are needed at the population level and at the health systems level (including clinical care and public health). Selected indicators must be sensitive, valid, and useful. And they must account for uncertainties about the magnitude and pattern of climate change; the broad range of upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes; and the complexities of adaptation itself, including institutional learning and knowledge management to inform iterative risk management. Barriers and constraints to implementing such indicators must be addressed, and lessons learned need to be added to the evidence base. This paper describes an approach to climate and health indicators, including characteristics of the indicators, implementation, and research needs.

Description: This book outlines how Germans convinced their politicians to pass laws allowing citizens to make their own energy, even when it hurt utility companies to do so. It traces the origins of the Energiewende movement in Germany from the Power Rebels of Schönau to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s shutdown of eight nuclear power plants following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. The authors explore how, by taking ownership of energy efficiency at a local level, community groups are key actors in the bottom-up fight against climate change. Individually, citizens might install solar panels on their roofs, but citizen groups can do much more: community wind farms, local heat supply, walkable cities and more. This book offers evidence that the transition to renewables is a one-time opportunity to strengthen communities and democratize the energy sector – in Germany and around the world.

Description: Having been enmeshed in modernity’s quest for innovative progress on one hand, and in attempts at fundamental critique and warning on the other, academic research nowadays struggles both with a positive conceptual framing of sustainability transformations and with redefining its own roles vis-à-vis policy formulation and societal debate. Expectations towards “transformative research” partially involve the necessity to stronger contribute to societally-defined normative goals. This, however, has the potential to blur the demarcation of research as an independent functional system. Addressing this challenge, the headings of “transdisciplinarity” and “co-creation” promise renewed relevance through procedural modesty, but tend to do so at the expense of substantial goal articulations. The corresponding science society narratives either leave the articulation of sustainability goals to real-world ‘processes,’ thus deferring them into nebulous futures and negating a distinct normative contribution of science itself (beyond process facilitation). Or they simply revert to environmentalist notions of danger prevention, as in the planetary boundaries concept – with limited communicative impact in local policy arenas. In our contribution, we develop a typology of different understandings of transformative research based on explicit and implicit narrative elements of sustainability discourses. If sustainability research were to truly – and not only rhetorically – embrace the term “transformation,” it would have to reflexively seek to reposition itself between semantics of danger prevention and innovation, the latter being a precondition for any substantially loaded transformation concept. This, in itself, is hard enough with hindsight not only to the normative tensions between precaution and adaptation, conservation and betterment, that inevitable arise in almost every developmental context; and it becomes even more difficult when wanting to maintain a productive relationship with actual policy deliberations. To this adds the third, and decisive, key element of modern sustainability discourse: justice. It makes for good stories – including heroes and villains – and seems therefore an ideal candidate for framing sustainability communication. Its semantics, on the other hand, may cause unease for those who wish to be a counterpart to “all relevant stakeholders.” Our conceptual sketch is based on interviews and qualitative discourse analysis (MAXQDA) within our own sustainability research institute and within broader domains of marine and urban mobility policies. We critically reflect on structural elements for narratives of sustainability, such as actor constellations, purpose-agency-ratios, and metaphors, thereby covering substantial parts of the sustainability discourse.

Description: Climate change is one of the largest challenges of our time. One of the major causes of anthropogenic climate change, carbon dioxide, also leads to ocean acidification. Left unaddressed, these two challenges will alter ecosystems and fundamentally change life, as we know it. Under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and through the Paris Agreement, there is a commitment to keep global temperature increase to well below two degrees Celsius. This will require a variety of strategies including increased renewable power generation and broad scale electrification, increased energy efficiency, and carbon-negative technologies. We believe that Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is necessary to prove that a technology could contribute to the mitigation of environmental impacts and that Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) will show how the technology could be competitively delivered in the market. Together the guidelines for LCA and TEA that are presented in this document are a valuable toolkit for promoting carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technology development.

Description: Evaluation research can provide policy advice on the basis of evidence that it is increasingly expected to rely upon. At the same time, policy advice itself can take on the role of the evaluandum and become the very object of evaluation. Both these dimensions of the evaluation-advice interface merit attention. However, while there are criteria for the evaluation of policy advice, the use of evaluation for policy advice remains a black box, as this is part of less formal communication and consultation. This notwithstanding, this article will offer an introduction to the various reasons for – as well as various contexts of – evaluation’s increasing importance in policy advice.