ALBERT

Description: Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.

Description: There is evidence that a self-sustaining ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has started, potentially leading to its disintegration. The associated sea level rise of more than 3m would pose a serious challenge to highly populated areas including metropolises such as Calcutta, Shanghai, New York City, and Tokyo. Here, we show that the WAIS may be stabilized through mass deposition in coastal regions around Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. In our numerical simulations, a minimum of 7400 Gt of additional snowfall stabilizes the flow if applied over a short period of 10 years onto the region (−2 mm year−1 sea level equivalent). Mass deposition at a lower rate increases the intervention time and the required total amount of snow. We find that the precise conditions of such an operation are crucial, and potential benefits need to be weighed against environmental hazards, future risks, and enormous technical challenges.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and by studying the impacts on global surface warming.

Description: Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%.

Description: Germany wishes to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent by 2050. However, despite the success to date, the measures which have already been planned and implemented are not sufficient for achieving this ambitious goal. In addition to the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, German industry is also responsible for releasing considerable volumes of global warming gases. In its Climate Action Plan 2050, the Federal Government has for the first time set a sector target for industry. The present acatech POSITION PAPER analyses the options for (re)utilising and storing CO2 (Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) which come into consideration for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. It is recommended that a wide-ranging public debate about the use of CCU and CCS be conducted in the near future. Only then will it be possible to take account of reservations about CCU and CCS, further develop suitable technology in good time and bring it to market maturity so that the necessary infrastructure can be planned, approved, funded and constructed.

Description: Airborne influenza virus transmission is depending on climate. Infected individuals are able to travel to any country in the world within one day. In this study we combine these two insights to investigate the influence of climate change on pandemic spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases, like influenza. Well-known recent examples for pandemics are severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2002/2003) and H1N1 (Influenza A virus subtype, 2009), which have demonstrated the vulnerability of a strongly connected world.

Description: Air pollution has large impacts on the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), affecting not just the health of people and ecosystems, but also climate, the cryosphere, monsoon patterns, water availability, agriculture, and incomes (established but incomplete). Although the available data are not comprehensive, they clearly show that the HKH receives significant amounts of air pollution from within and outside of the region, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), a region where many rural areas are severely polluted. In addition, the HKH receives transboundary pollution from other parts of Asia. This chapter surveys the evidence on regional air pollution and considers options for reducing it, while underlining the need for regional collaboration in mitigation efforts. As described in Chap. 1, the HKH region is fragile and rapidly changing; while the outcome of the interplay of complex drivers is difficult to predict, it will have major consequences. That holds true for air pollution as well.

Description: GRASP (Governance of Resources for Arctic Sustainable Policy and Practice) is an inter- and transdisciplinary research project jointly developed in 2014 by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) and the Jade University of Applied Sciences

Description: Trade is the lifeblood of the global economy, but few would consider it a social good. Instead, our views on trade have polarized between two extremes: ‘free trade’ ideologues who regard trade as an end in itself, and ‘protectionists’ who view it as a destructive force to be contained. But there is another way to trade – one with the interests of people, not profit, at its heart. In this visionary work Christian Felber, founder of the Economy for the Common Good movement, offers a dazzling new paradigm for the global trading order. Confronting the ‘free trade religion’ which has reigned since Adam Smith, Felber champions an alternative approach in which trade serves the wider interests of society, incorporating the key issues of our time: human rights, climate change, and the growing divide richer and poorer countries. He proposes the groundbreaking idea of an ‘Ethical Trade Zone’, founded on a principled approach to tariffs and trade policies, and built with international cooperation on trade, taxation and labour.

Description: The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Description: This paper describes and quantifies three different energy policy pathways for Spain’s energy transition: government-centred, represented by the socialist party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE); market-centred, represented by the conservative party (Partido Popular, PP); and grassroots, represented by Unidas Podemos.

Description: Die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz von Energieinfrastrukturen und klimapolitischen Maßnahmen stellt einen wesentlichen Erfolgsfaktor für die Transformation des Energiesystems dar. Das folgende Kapitel beschreibt konzeptionelle Grundlagen bezüglich der Definition und Dimensionierung des Akzeptanzbegriffs sowie deren psychologische Grundlagen und beleuchtet relevante Einflussfaktoren auf die Akzeptanz von Energieinfrastrukturen wie Erneuerbaren Energien und dem Ausbau des Stromnetzes. Es werden Praxisbeispiele aus unterschiedlichen Anwendungsfeldern berichtet und konkrete Möglichkeiten diskutiert, auf lokaler Ebene akzeptable Lösungen zu erreichen, wobei die besondere Rolle einer konstruktiven Partizipationskultur für die Akzeptanz und die gesellschaftliche Transformation aufgezeigt wird.

Description: The paper applies the concept of systemic risks to natural disasters, more precisely to the combination of natural and human-induced disasters. the paper highlights policy implications of these strategies and calls out for an integrated, inclusive and adaptive management approach for the systemic aspects of natural hazards.

Description: Here we present the results of the demonstration tests that took place in Summer 2018 during the final months of the four-year Best Paths project. Details will be given on the assembly and finalizing of the demonstrator installation as well as the testing strategy defined for HVDC superconducting cables and adopted in the project. Some possibilities of installation within the electricity grids will also be discussed.

Description: Die Konferenz »Bits & Bäume« (2018 in Berlin) bot das bis dato größte Debattenforum für Digitalisierung und Nachhaltigkeit. Über 50 Autor*innen aus Tech-Szene, Nachhaltigkeitsbewegung und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit zeigen in diesem Buch zur Konferenz, wie die Digitalisierung den sozial-ökologischen Wandel voranbringen kann. Die Beiträge beleuchten die Auswirkungen unseres Digitalkonsums im Globalen Süden, den nachhaltigen Umgang mit Daten oder die Risiken und Potenziale eines digitalisierten Wirtschaftssystems. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei stets die drängende Frage: Welche Digitalisierung wollen wir? Die verschiedenen Antworten auf diese Frage machen deutlich: Eine zukunftsfähige Digitalisierung muss sich weniger an Interessen einzelner Wirtschaftsakteure, sondern am Gemeinwohl orientieren.

Description: Current efforts at the International Seabed Authority to develop regulations pertaining to the exploitation of deep seabed minerals would benefit from a moment of reflection on the future governance of these resources. As the Area and its resources have been declared a common heritage of mankind, this principle must be taken into account when designing the future governance of activities in the Area.

Description: In dem Discussion Paper werden die Bedingungen und Herausforderungen für den transformativen Forschungsansatz des IASS diskutiert.

Description: Die vier Kopernikus-Projekte zur Erforschung der Energiewende werden vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) gefördert und sind Ende 2016 angelaufen. Im Mittelpunkt des hier beschriebenen Kopernikus-Projekts ENavi steht die Roadsmap für eine systemisch verknüpfte Navigation in Richtung Energiewende. Dieser Statusbericht beschreibt die wesentlichen Ergebnisse. Vor allem die aus vielen Mosaiksteinen der 13 Arbeitspakete zusammengesetzten Collagen zu den drei Schwerpunktthemen liefern Einblicke in nachhaltige Strukturen und Anforderungen für Stromsystem, Wärmeversorgung und Mobilität.

Description: In order to fulfill multiple sustainable development targets, most prominently human development, poverty eradication and climate change mitigation, African countries need infrastructure that cover basic needs while at the same time promote industrialization and value creation. G20 countries can support African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) incentivizing low carbon development by phasing out subsidies and eventually putting a price on carbon and (4) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments.

Description: Sufficiency is one important strategy for sustainable development. At an individual level, we need a better understanding of the relationship between sufficiency attitude and CO2 footprint. In this paper, we analyze sufficiency as a psychological determinant of low-carbon lifestyles and introduce an empirical measurement scale for individual sufficiency attitudes. Sufficiency aims at a total reduction of resource consumption, which is urgently needed to achieve our climate and sustainable development goals. This paper explores individual attitude towards a sufficiency-oriented lifestyle as a driver of a low carbon footprint. Survey data of 310 participants was analyzed to test whether individual sufficiency attitude manifests in people’s carbon footprint. The results provide evidence for this relationship but its strength varies between behavioral domains ‐ that is, heating, electricity, food consumption, everyday mobility, air travel. Potential structural and individual barriers to reducing CO2 emissions are discussed as possible factors that could explain differences between the behavioral domains. We argue that intrapersonal factors matter for sustainable lifestyles but that policy-making and structural change should complement and facilitate voluntary endeavors to achieve low-carbon lifestyles.

Description: Tiếp cận điện năng là vô cùng cần thiết để thúc đẩy kinh tế và phát triển con người. Đây cũng là một động lực quan trọng cho phát triển kinh tế của mỗi quốc gia. Tiếp cận các dạng năng lượng hiện đại, đặc biệt là điện năng, thậm chí còn quan trọng hơn nữa đối với việc phát triển kinh tế-xã hội khu vực nông thôn (có trình độ phát triển cơ sở hạ tầng thấp hơn so với khu vực thành thị). “Điện khí hóa toàn diện” nhằm đạt được các mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế-xã hội (cũng như các mục tiêu phát triển bền vững (SDG)) của Việt Nam sẽ đòi hỏi mọi hộ dân, gia đình, cơ sở sản xuất nông nghiệp, doanh nghiệp địa phương và cộng đồng dân cư nông thôn đều được tiếp cận điện năng 24/7. Để đạt được mục tiêu này, Chính phủ Việt Nam đã tập trung chủ yếu vào việc tạo điều kiện tiếp cận điện năng cho người dân bằng cách mở rộng lưới điện quốc gia. Gần 98% hộ dân ở thành thị và nông thôn Việt Nam đều được điện khí hóa thông qua phương thức này. Tuy nhiên, việc tiếp cận điện năng của 2 % dân số còn lại, tập trung chủ yếu ở các khu vực có điều kiện địa hình không thuận lợi cho việc mở rộng lưới điện quốc gia vẫn còn là vấn đề kinh tế-kỹ thuật cần bàn luận. Để giải quyết vấn đề này, các cuộc thảo luận đã được tiến hành nhằm tìm hiểu xem liệu các giải pháp hệ thống năng lượng tái tạo độc lập có hiệu quả chi phí cao có thể hỗ trợ cho công cuộc điện khí hóa cho 2 % dân số còn lại hay không cũng như thúc đẩy phát triển kinh tế-xã hội hơn nữa cho nhóm người này.

Description: Wer eine CO2-Besteuerung fordert und gleichzeitig die Einkünfte zurück an die Bevölkerung geben will, statt sie zu investieren, schwächt die Wirkung des Instruments deutlich ab, argumentiert Johan Lilliestam vom Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam in seinem Standpunkt. Wirkungsvoller seien zum Beispiel Änderungen des Strommarktdesigns und Infrastrukturprogramme, um klimaneutralen Technologien den Aufbruch aus ihren Nischen zu ermöglichen.

Description: New energies form new energy landscapes (Apostol, Palmer, Pasqualetti, Smardon, & Sullivan, 2016; Gailing & Leibenath, 2013). Energy carriers converge within space and open up leeway and scope for design. Different spaces are affected: offshore and onshore, plains and mountains, waters, volcanic areas, coastal regions, deserts, etc. Different energy sources and types of technology are used and integrated through grids. Grids are increasingly governed as smart energy systems equipped with smart meters and apps etc., linked with smart mobility.

Description: With our attitudes and behavior, which aim at promoting sustainable behavior, we face a temporal dilemma – a temporal conflict between short-term and long-term interests. Accordingly, psychological time is an essential variable in understanding how people decide between options of short-term self-interest, which can be experienced at present, and long-term common interest, such as sustainable development with an outcome that lies far in the future. Present feelings are often so powerful that considerations of future events are neglected. Individuals differ in their emphasis on present and future dimensions. A stronger future orientation and a mindful present orientation are positive predictors of sustainable behavior; hedonistic and impulsive present orientations are negative predictors. We discuss the concept of the balanced time perspective as the propensity to consciously switch among the time orientations of past, present, and future. Fitting with their overall psychological profile, individuals with a balanced time perspective might display a range of sustainable attitudes and behaviors.

Description: Die deutsche Energiewende wird in dem Beitrag als umkämpfter Prozess interpretiert. Mittels einer politökonomischen Analyseperspektive werden die komplexen Artikulationsverhältnisse von ökonomischen Entwicklungen, zivilgesellschaftlichen Auseinandersetzungen und staatlichen Politiken analysiert. Das zentrale Argument des Beitrags ist, dass in den letzten Jahren die Dynamiken hin zu einem regenerativen Energieregime im Strombereich abgebremst wurden. Damit hat sich der Charakter der Energiewende von einem stark umkämpften, bestehende Macht- und Herrschaftsverhältnisse in Frage stellenden Prozess hin zu einem Prozess des geordneten, im Rahmen des auf Exportmärkte ausgerichteten deutschen Modells eines „Koordinierten Kapitalismus“ verbleibenden Übergangs verschoben. Im Verkehrsbereich hingegen ist die Dominanz fossiler Energieträger ungebrochen. Die Potentiale und Restriktionen des Wandels hin zu einem post-fossilen Mobilitätsregime sind zu berücksichtigen, um ein umfassenderes Bild der Energietransformation zu zeichnen.

Description: The article interprets the German “Energiewende” as a contested process. The complex articulation of economic developments, civil society disputes and state policies are analyzed from a political-economy perspective. The central argument is that in recent years the dynamics towards a renewable energy regime in the electricity sector have been slowed down. This is accompanied by a shift of the character of the “Energiewende” from a highly contested process of questioning existing power structures to a process of an orderly and gradual transition, remaining within the framework of the German model of “Coordinated Capitalism”, which is geared towards export markets. In the transport sector, however, the dominance of fossil fuels remains unchanged. In order to draw a comprehensive picture of the energy transformation, the potentials and restrictions of the transformation towards a post-fossil mobility regime are discussed.

Description: The files include results to out study investigating the possibility for renewable electricity autarky in Europe. For each administrative unit on the continental, national, regional, and municipal levels these files include: * Name, country, population, current electricity demand, land cover statistics, shared coast with exclusive economic zone * Potential in terms of area [km2], installable capacity [MW], annual electricity yield [TWh]

Description: This paper proposes “making refuge” as a conceptual placeholder and an analytical rubric, a guiding ethos and praxis, for the engaged Buddhist aspiration of responding to the social, political, economic, and planetary crises facing the world. Making refuge is conceived as the work of building the conditions of trust and safety necessary for living and dying well together as co-inhabitants of diverse communities and habitats. The paper will explain the rationale for making refuge by connecting the dharmic understanding of dukkha with feminist conceptualizations of the body and vulnerability. This will chart some theoretical and methodological pathways for engaged Buddhism to further its liberatory aspirations in reciprocity with emergent movements in radical critical theory, contemplative studies, and social and ecological activism. The paper will also examine the effects of white supremacy in U.S. Buddhism through the framework of making refuge. This will demonstrate how political healing and restorative justice might be cultivated through a dispositional ethics that pays appropriate attention to the vulnerabilities facing oppressed people.

Description: This study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector; this was carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS1 project with the aim of assessing the co-benefits of a low-carbon energy transition in the country. Four scenarios for the future development of the electricity sector in South Africa were analysed: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Least Cost planning scenario (CSIR_LC); Department of Environmental Affairs Rapid Decarbonisation scenario (DEA_RD); Integrated Resource Plan 2016 (IRP 2016); and Integrated Resource Plan Policy Adjusted scenario 2018 (IRP 2018).

Description: This policy brief makes three recommendations for strengthening international cooperation in support of a global energy transition.

Description: The "Berlin Air quality and Ecosystem Research: Local and long-range Impact of anthropogenic and Natural hydrocarbons" (BAERLIN2014) campaign was conducted during the 3 summer months (June–August) of 2014. During this measurement campaign, both stationary and mobile measurements were undertaken to address complementary aims. This paper provides an overview of the stationary measurements and results that were focused on characterization of gaseous and particulate pollution, including source attribution, in the Berlin–Potsdam area, and quantification of the role of natural sources in determining levels of ozone and related gaseous pollutants. Results show that biogenic contributions to ozone and particulate matter are substantial. One indicator for ozone formation, the OH reactivity, showed a 31 % (0.82 ± 0.44 s−1) and 75 % (3.7 ± 0.90 s−1) contribution from biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for urban background (2.6 ± 0.68 s−1) and urban park (4.9 ± 1.0 s−1) location, respectively, emphasizing the importance of such locations as sources of biogenic NMVOCs in urban areas. A comparison to NMVOC measurements made in Berlin approximately 20 years earlier generally show lower levels today for anthropogenic NMVOCs. A substantial contribution of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol to PM10 concentrations was quantified. In addition to secondary aerosols, source apportionment analysis of the organic carbon fraction identified the contribution of biogenic (plant-based) particulate matter, as well as primary contributions from vehicles, with a larger contribution from diesel compared to gasoline vehicles, as well as a relatively small contribution from wood burning, linked to measured levoglucosan.

Description: Humans have a long history of mobility on a spectrum from voluntary migration to forced displacement in response to social, political and environmental change. While many migration drivers exist, climate change is likely to amplify the environmental drivers of migration. At least 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052 are projected if global warming continues to increase at the current rate. The associated impacts are diverse and include temperature and precipitation extremes in most inhabited regions and increased probability of drought and flood. Migration can be an important and useful adaptive response to climate impacts when it increases household resilience and reduces socio-economic vulnerabilities, and yet can also have negative health consequences. The climate–migration–health nexus entails complex interactions including the following: first, climate-related risks to health faced by migrants at all stages of the migration journey. Second, the impacts of migration itself on health with possible specific health implications of climate-related migration. This article provides a brief overview of climate-related migration, identifies climate hotspots where substantial migration and displacement are anticipated and explores the health implications of climate-related migration.

Description: This paper discusses proposals for tabular standards in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In particular, we focus on Keynes’ proposal for an international tabular standard (ITS) as the gold standard unravelled in the 1930s. The paper explains the origins of Keynes’ ITS proposal which pegged the value of an international reserve to a broad index of primary commodities, weighted in terms of their value in world production. We argue that the ITS should be viewed as an important and enduring component of Keynes’ ideal long-run vision for anchoring the international monetary system, even post-Bretton Woods.

Description: In four short meditations, approaches to time and the future are explored through both a time and futures lens. A compressed poetic form of expression is used to distil the essence of the processes involved. The shapes emerge in the writing and once discernable they begin to guide the choice of words. Theory becomes a playful activity that draws on a deep and extensive pool of time theory. The first meditation expresses the difficulty for conventional social science to engage with the future. The second depicts temporal relations of modernity that encompass features shared by humanity across the ages. The third piece explores time encoded in nature, money and society. The last meditation engages with approaches to sustainability and indicates the significant differences that arise with the respective standpoints of the present future and future present. It closes the circle back to the first meditation on disciplinary challenges presented by the temporal and engagement with future presents.

Description: This chapter explores aspects of the relationship between the financial system and resource industries, starting with general criteria for sound investment and an overview of the various materials and resources that need to be distinguished. To this end, the focus is first placed on fossil energy commodities that do not lend themselves to management in a circular economy, before the metals and mining sector and its regulation are presented. The global transformation of energy systems presents an opportunity to phase out a non-circular industry and replace it with one that is characterised less by commodities for consumption and more by commodities for the manufacture of energy conversion equipment and durable investment goods. Combining the energy and mineral resource industries, the impact of the decline of fossil energy industries is discussed, including the implications for international trade, economic activity, public finance and the financial sector. The chapter concludes with the general argument that the financial system is affected by changes in the resource industries and their shift to a circular economy, and that it can facilitate that shift if the political, legal and regulatory framework is right. Finally, a suite of criteria for investment in support of resource sector transformation and the circular economy is proposed.

Description: This report is intended to provide a review of the relevant governance frameworks currently in place for the management of high seas biodiversity in these regions. The report uses the issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations for a new legally binding BBNJ agreement under the United Nations, as well as selected Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 targets, as a lens through which to assess progress towards conservation and sustainable use.

Description: In recent years, manifold ways to deal with the ecological crisis are subsumed under the header “transition/ transformation to sustainability” or even “Great” transformation. This chapter critically discusses the current debate from the perspective of a Polanyian understanding of a Great Transformation. The authors argue that the current debate suffers from a narrow analytical approach to transformation ignoring the dynamics of global capitalism and the power relations involved. Thus, a “new critical orthodoxy” of knowledge about transformation is emerging which runs the danger of contributing to ecologizing capitalism while ignoring the root causes of social-ecological crises. Based on Polanyi, but also on regulation theory, the authors distinguish between three types of transformation which focus either on an adaptation of the current institutional systems or on a new phase of green capitalism. Beside these two types, however, a post-capitalist Great Transformation requires more profound structural changes and exceeds the accumulation imperative as much as other structural constraints of capitalist development.

Description: The world going low carbon is believed to put an end to petrostates, and to force incumbent oil producers to diversify their economies away from fossil fuels. This article challenges this assumption. Whether petrostates are in for the long game or end up with a ‘panic and pump’ strategy, it is argued, is a function of the lifting costs and the social costs of producing oil. What is more, the low‐carbon energy transition may well throw petrostates an additional lifeline, as fast decarbonizing OECD countries will shed some of their most energy‐intensive sectors, including refineries and petrochemicals, which opens up new export opportunities. Particularly for Middle Eastern petrostates it may therefore be very rational to further specialize in the high‐carbon segment. The policy challenge, therefore, will be twofold: managing a rapidly changing energy system in order to secure the transformation dividends it will bring, for human security and economic welfare; and balancing the (geo) political after pains of the incumbent fuels leaving the system.

Description: Der NaWis-Verbund will Impulse für eine transdisziplinäre und transformative Wissenschaft geben. Dafür wollen die Partnerinstitutionen Forschungsmethoden entwickeln und diese in gesellschaftlich relevanten Problemfeldern anwenden. Zudem sollen Kriterien zur Qualitätssicherung und Wirkungskontrolle erstellt werden.

Description: Im Diskurs um eine nachhaltige Entwicklung ist unter anderem die Frage nach distributiver Gerechtigkeit, das heißt der gerechten Verteilung von begrenzten Ressourcen, von hoher Bedeutung Dem Bildungsbereich wird hier eine bedeutende Rolle zugewiesen, Individuen soll der Kompetenzerwerb zur Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen Zukunft ermöglicht werden. Ziel dieses Beitrages ist es, aufzuzeigen, dass es in diesem Kontext auch notwendig ist, die Institutionen selbst als Orte zu gestalten, die als gerecht wahrgenommen werden, da diese wichtige Sozialisationsinstanzen darstellen. Psychologische Erkenntnisse bezüglich der Wahrnehmung und der Effekte von Gerechtigkeit können Hinweise dazu liefern, wie Schule gestaltet werden könnte, um zur Leitidee einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung beizutragen. Hier sind Modelle zur Gerechtigkeitswahrnehmung und relevante Persönlichkeitskonstrukte wie der Gerechte-Welt-Glauben oder die Ungerechtigkeitssensibilität von Bedeutung. Die hier vorgestellten empirischen Ergebnisse stellen nachhaltigkeitsrelevante Effekte von erfahrener (Un)gerechtigkeit im Schulalltag vor. Hieraus lassen sich Implikationen sowohl für die Lehrerbildung als auch für die Schulorganisation ableiten.

Description: Die internationale Zusammenarbeit zur Förderung einer globalen Energiewende befindet sich im Aufwind. Initiativen und Foren für multilaterale Kooperation werden durch wachsendes bilaterales Engagement ergänzt.

Description: Anne-Katrin Holfelder geht der Frage nach, welche impliziten Wissensbestände bei Jugendlichen in Diskussionen nachhaltigkeitsrelevanter Themen urteils- und handlungsleitend sind. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine Diskrepanz zwischen den auf expliziter Ebene geäußerten Einstellungen und Werten einerseits und den aus den impliziten Wissensbeständen rekonstruierten urteils- und handlungsleitenden Aspekten andererseits. Durch die Anbindung an den didaktischen Ansatz „Alltagsphantasien“ erscheint es im Kontext einer Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung (BNE) notwendig, die rekonstruierten impliziten Wissensbestände sowohl in konzeptionelle als auch in didaktische Überlegungen einzubeziehen.

Description: Profound societal transformations are needed to move society from unsustainability to greater sustainability under continually changing social and environmental conditions. A key challenge is to understand the influences on and the dynamics of collective behavior change toward sustainability. In this paper we describe our approach to (1) understanding how affective narrative expressions influence transitions to more sustainable collective behaviors and (2) how that understanding, as well as the potential for using narrative expressions in modeling of social movements, can become a basis for improving community responses to change in a rapidly changing world. Our focus is on narratives that express visions of desirable futures and narratives that reflect individual and social identities, on the cultures and contexts in which they are embedded, exchanged, and modified, and through which they influence the dynamics of social movements toward sustainability. Using an analytical categorization of narrative expressions of case studies in the Caribbean, Micronesia, and Africa, we describe insights derived from the narratives of vision and social identities in diverse communities. Finally, we suggest that narrative expressions may provide a basis for agent-based modeling to expand thinking about potential development pathways of social movements for sustainable futures.

Description: Climate has for a long time been a taken-for-granted background against which social, political and economic interactions have taken place. But this taken-for-granted background is cleaving. It is becoming hard to ignore the potential repercussions of a changing climate, and the uneven impact of certain forms of human society and energy cultures that risk undermining their own environmental conditions.In a comprehensive and accessible way, this book:Drawing on the insights of various disciplines and citing numerous examples, Society and Climate probes the interplay between society, science and climate, and warns against making any easy assumptions.

Description: Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) as a solar radiation management (SRM) technology may provide a cost-effective means of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change, being perhaps orders of magnitude less expensive than greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. At the same time, SAI technologies have deeply uncertain economic and environmental impacts and complex ethical, legal, political, and international relations ramifications. Robust governance strategies are needed to manage the many potential benefits, risks, and uncertainties related to SAI. This perspective reviews the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)’s guidelines for emerging risk governance (ERG) as an approach for responsible consideration of SAI, given the IRGC’s experience in governing other more conventional risks. We examine how the five steps of the IRGC’s ERG guidelines would address the complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks presented by SAI. Diverse risks are identified in Step 1, scenarios to amplify or dissipate the risks are identified in Step 2, and applicable risk management options identified in Step 3. Steps 4 and 5 involve implementation and review by risk managers within an established organization. For full adoption and promulgation of the IRGC’s ERG guidelines, an international consortium or governing body (or set of bodies) should be tasked with governance and oversight. This Perspective provides a first step at reviewing the risk governance tasks that such a body would undertake and contributes to the growing literature on best practices for SRM governance.

Description: Deutschland will seine Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2050 um 80 bis 95 Prozent vermindern. Die bereits vorgesehenen und umgesetzten Maßnahmen sind jedoch trotz der bisherigen Erfolge nicht ausreichend, um dieses ambitionierte Ziel zu erreichen. Neben dem Sektor der Energiewirtschaft als größter Quelle der Treibhausgasemissionen werden in Deutschland erhebliche Mengen im Industriesektor freigesetzt. Im Klimaschutzplan 2050 hat die Bundesregierung erstmals ein Sektorziel für die Industrie festgelegt. Die vorliegende acatech POSITION analysiert die Optionen der Verwertung und Speicherung von CO2 – Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) und Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) –, die für die Minderung von Treibhausgasemissionen aus Industrieprozessen infrage kommen. Es wird empfohlen, zeitnah Diskussionen über Potenziale und Bedingungen des Einsatzes von CCU und CCS unter Beteiligung einer breiten Öffentlichkeit zu führen. Nur dann können Vorbehalte gegenüber CCU und CCS berücksichtigt, geeignete Technologien rechtzeitig fortentwickelt und zur Marktreife gebracht werden, damit auch die nötige Infrastruktur geplant, genehmigt, finanziert und errichtet werden kann.

Description: The natural capital of the vast deep ocean is significant yet not well quantified. The ecosystem services provided by the deep sea provide a wide range of benefits to humanity. Proposed deep-sea economic activities such as fishing, deep-sea mining and bioprospecting therefore need to be assessed in this context. In addition to quantifying the economic benefits and costs of such activities on their own, their potential impact on the deep-sea natural capital also needs to be considered. This article describes such a natural capital approach, identifies relevant ecosystem services and looks at how a range of proposed commercial activities could be assessed in this context. It suggests a methodology for such analysis and suggests an approach to a sustainable blue deep-sea economy that is consistent with environmental precaution. It will close with suggestions of how potential risks can best be handled. The article aims to show that modern environmental economics based on natural capital can provide a useful framework for deciding future deep-sea efforts.

Description: This brief seeks to identify approaches to SSC results assessment led or supported by Governments of the South. It explores how some Southern partners are conducting initiatives to assess the results of SSC and whether and how these initiatives are affecting the way they conduct their SSC. Finally, the brief reflects upon the potential of such initiatives to foster the contribution of South-South cooperation to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development and Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Description: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this paper argues that African countries, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Description: Einen spannenden, aktions- und forschungsorientierten Einstieg in die Themenfelder Klima und Rohstoffe ermöglicht die Zukunftsbox Kohlenstoff, die das IASS in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Futurium entwickelt hat. Die Materialien eignen sich für Schülergruppen jeder Schulform ab Klassenstufe 8. Die Zukunftsbox kann fachübergreifend eingesetzt werden. Mit ihr will das IASS einen Beitrag zur Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung leisten.

Description: The role of investor countries remains poorly understood in the contemporary “land grab” debate. This book provides a comparative historical-institutional and politico-economic account of “land grabbing” from a home country perspective. Specifically, the book investigates large-scale land acquisitions from two investor countries: the UK and China. The regional focus is on Sub-Saharan Africa, a major target of such land-consuming investments since 2000. The assessment provides an empirical-analytical account of 40 Chinese and British “land grab” projects that occurred during 2000-2015. It also reviews the specific details of the home country’s industrial set-up, development challenges, ideological framing, political economy, and significant events critical to understanding what is happening. The book advances three arguments: Firstly, it shows that Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) mentioned in the “land grab” literature reflects the demands of the country’s resource-intensive and market-dependent manufacturing industry, and is part of economic upgrading. In the case of the UK, large-scale land acquisitions occur in response to reforms in the host countries, to international and domestic energy and climate policies, and to reindustrialization efforts. Secondly, the comparative analysis reveals that in spite of their politico-economic differences, both countries share many similarities, such as the multiplicity of agencies, structures, and events involved, the guiding ideology in place, and the institutional framework supporting such OFDI projects. Notably, both countries’ governments consider outward foreign direct investments (of which “land grabs” form a part) as a strategic instrument to pursue particular national development ambitions. These projects allegedly “push the limits” of profitable business and/or social mobility in an increasingly globalized economy, and serve as a tool to “fight the limits” of national development trajectories that cannot provide sufficient (and good) jobs, erode the national resource base, and are strongly vulnerable in their reliance on export markets. Thirdly, the book reviews the main features of late 19th century colonial and imperial practices, to be aware of important factors and dynamics in the evaluation of contemporary land acquisitions.

Description: A major hurdle for implementing CCU technologies is often their economic viability as well as the social acceptance for using such technologies. Therefore, assessments regarding the economic and social impacts of CCU technologies are needed. Being among the biggest emitters of anthropogenic CO2, the cement industry requires affordable pathways towards a sustainable future. CCU technologies could potentially contribute to this direction. A technological concept developed in this field is the so called "accelerated carbonation" process. Hereby, CO2 is reacted with activated minerals to form carbonates. The carbonates could potentially be used for multiple purposes, such as fillers or cement additives or for land reclamation projects. Some policy advice reports use the accelerated carbonation process as a positive example for the utilization of CO2 as a feedstock, because unlike most other CCU concepts, the carbonation reaction is energetically favorable. Although the concept is not new, the accelerated carbonation routes lack detailed and comparable economic assessments in literature. In this contribution, economic assessments of several carbonation routes will be presented, uncovering the advantages of certain routes towards an economically viable implementation. Moreover, the evaluation of the circumstances under which these novel technologies become economically feasible as well as the analysis of key factors which can be influenced in order to promote economic feasibility will be investigated. Understanding the economics of accelerated carbonation routes is essential for their further development and deployment in the context of broader sustainability strategies.

Description: This handbook offers the first comprehensive, state-of-the-field guide to past weather and climate and their role in human societies. Bringing together dozens of international specialists from the sciences and humanities, this volume describes the methods, sources, and major findings of historical climate reconstruction and impact research. Its chapters take the reader through each key source of past climate and weather information and each technique of analysis; through each historical period and region of the world; through the major topics of climate and history and core case studies; and finally through the history of climate ideas and science. Using clear, non-technical language, The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History serves as a textbook for students, a reference guide for specialists and an introduction to climate history for scholars and interested readers.

Description: In a monetary economy of production, Say’s law is not verified for many reasons. On the basis of these refutations, it is possible to state that the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process is structurally lower than the value of production. We study here the dynamics of such an economy and obtain two main results. First, the long-term debt of this economy has to increase along a growth phase to enable demand to grow at the same pace as supply. Secondly, due to the repayment of this debt, the gap between supply and the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process widens along a growth phase.

Description: A comprehensive overview is provided evaluating direct real-world CO2 emissions of both diesel and petrol cars newly registered in Europe between 1995 and 2015. Before 2011, European diesel cars emitted less CO2 per kilometre than petrol cars, but since then there is no appreciable difference in per-km CO2 emissions between diesel and petrol cars. Real-world CO2 emissions of diesel cars have not declined appreciably since 2001, while the CO2 emissions of petrol cars have been stagnant since 2012. When adding black carbon related CO2-equivalents, such as from diesel cars without particulate filters, diesel cars were discovered to have had much higher climate relevant emissions until the year 2001 when compared to petrol cars. From 2001 to 2015 CO2-equivalent emissions from new diesel cars and petrol cars were hardly distinguishable. Lifetime use phase CO2-equivalent emissions of all European passenger vehicles were modelled for 1995–2015 based on three scenarios: the historic case, another scenario freezing percentages of diesel cars at the low levels from the early 1990s (thus avoiding the observed “boom” in new diesel registrations), and an advanced mitigation scenario based on high proportions of petrol hybrid cars and cars burning gaseous fuels. The difference in CO2-equivalent emissions between the historical case and the scenario avoiding the diesel car boom is only 0.3%. The advanced mitigation scenario would have been able to achieve a 3.4% reduction in total CO2-equivalent emissions over the same time frame. The European diesel car boom appears to have been ineffective at reducing climate-warming emissions from the European transport sector.

Description: The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and is home to numerous small islands. Many of these have already vanished, and those remaining are continuing to lose ground. Over a few decades several of these small places were abandoned as the waters started to roll over the lands around the mid-nineteenth century. Houses were torn down, while some people moved within or to other islands and others migrated to solid ground when other measures failed to secure the small islands. Some people left earlier than others, but there were moments when it became difficult to retain the society of the islands. By telling the story of the Chesapeake Islands, this paper outlines the reactions of individuals and society to changes in their living environment. The aim of the article is thereby to explore the variables influencing human thresholds to migration in times of changing environments. Societal factors, as well as natural stimuli, are explored that led to migration at a certain time and place. By drawing attention to the sinking islands in the Chesapeake, I advocate the consideration of examples from the Western Hemisphere in debates on island loss and migration.

Description: In search for sustainability of the oceans, the concept of resilience arises as a necessary perspective from which to analyse what course of action to take. Resilience refers to the capacity of a system to absorb change, but also to adapt and develop in face of those changes. Resilience thinking has recently permeated the sphere of legal studies, and the two fields have been interested in exploring the impact they have on one another. To explore this interaction further in the context of the management of the oceans, the present paper looks at areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) as a socio-ecological system. It argues that the law can be a tool for improving the resilience of a system, but that it must, for that purpose, be able to ensure at least some adaptive capacity. In light of the upcoming, consolidated regime for the sustainable management of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) through the development of an internationally legally binding agreement on the topic, and considering the uncertainty surrounding our knowledge of ABNJ, this paper suggests to look at the BBNJ agreement from the perspective of resilience thinking. The paper explores how this perspective could bring new insights to the development of the BBNJ agreement, as well as the emerging literature linking law and resilience.

Description: Early in October, the German government introduced its “climate package.” It is a comprehensive bill aimed at reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing a sustainable energy transformation, especially in sectors that have not succeeded in these tasks so far: Transportation, buildings, and industry. The bill features annual emission budgets for each sector that are in line with the country’s goal of reducing overall emissions to 55-56 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Among the proposed measures to support these reductions are a carbon price, a tax break for train tickets and building retrofits, and tax credits for commuters. NGOs and think tanks are heavily criticizing the bill for its lack of ambition and the laxity of its instruments. The carbon price has been deemed far too low to be effective, the compliance mechanisms to enforce each sector’s emission budget as well as the external monitoring mechanisms too weak. Overall, experts agree, the bill fails to trigger the large-scale transformation necessary in Germany to ensure Germany’s compliance with its 2030 targets.

Description: This book systematically introduces historical trajectories and dynamics of environmental policy and governance in India. Following the features of environmental policy in India as outlined in Chapter 1, subsequent chapters explore domestic and international factors that shape environmental policy in the country. The chapters examine the interplay between governmental and non-governmental actors, and the influence of social mobilisation and institutions on environmental policy and governance. Analysing various policy trajectories, the chapters identify and explore five central environmental policy subsystems: forests, water, climate, energy and city development. The authors drill down into the social, economic, political and ecological dimensions of each system, shedding light on why striking a balance between national economic growth and environmental sustainability is so challenging. Drawing on political science theories of policy processes and related theoretical concepts, this innovative edited volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of environmental policy and politics and South Asian studies more broadly.

Description: Im Jahr 2005 erschien das »ABC der Globalisierung«. Inzwischen zeigen sich die Auswirkungen der neoliberalen Globalisierung in aller Deutlichkeit: Aus dem Wohlfahrtsversprechen ist eine Welt der globalen ­(Un)Ordnung ­geworden. 114 Autorinnen und Autoren greifen in 126 Stichwörtern die aktuellen Entwicklungen auf, erarbeiten politische Orientierungspunkte und zeigen Alternativen.

Description: Air pollution in the Kathmandu valley is influenced by a variety of domestic and industrial sources such as garbage and biomass burning, brick kilns, and vehicular emissions. During non-monsoon seasons, the air quality index is considered hazardous, and consequently, air pollution is a leading cause of death in Nepal. During winter and spring of 2017-18, part two of the Nepal Ambient Monitoring and Source Testing Experiment (NAMaSTE-2) involved stationary sampling of gas and aerosol phase species in four locations across Nepal as well as 14 mobile measurement drives throughout the Kathmandu valley, Nepal. This work presents spatially and temporally resolved aerosol mass spectrometry and gas phase measurements from a mobile laboratory capable of high time resolution aerosol composition measurements. Spatially resolved aerosol composition results highlight chemical differences in aerosol due to strong regional sources, topography, and meteorology. For example, aerosol composition in regions with a high concentration of brick kilns had enhanced concentrations of sulfate aerosol, consistent with emission factors measured from brick kilns. Similarly, small towns outside of Kathmandu exhibited strongly elevated concentrations of chloride and organic aerosol due to garbage burning. These results are important for apportionment of the aerosol burden in the valley to their sources, and the consequent reduction of aerosol emissions.

Description: This report presents the results of the third and the last workshop in the series “Yamal 2040” organised within Blue-Action work package WP5 “Delivering and valuing climate and information services”. The Blue-Action team at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in cooperation with the Primakov National Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Science (IMEMO) and Foresight Intelligence, and with inputs provided by the National Oceanographic Center (UKRI-NOC) and the M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP-RAS) in the Blue-Action work package WP2 “Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes” developed forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with multiple developments in the Arctic and help stakeholders to adapt to them. This case study looks at a specific region, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in Arctic Russia (YNAO or Yamal region), a region with substantial ongoing and planned petroleum and shipping activities. Together with stakeholder groups, the team has co-developed a suite of scenarios to describe possible futures for this region in 2040 by incorporating cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. The scenarios are the outcome of a truly co-design and co-development process involving partners, stakeholders and using various foresight methods tailored to the project’s needs. These methods allow to constructively deal with cognitive biases, thus enabling participants to think out of the box when planning the future. This approach is very helpful in tackling complex issues linked to numerous interacting uncertainties.

Description: Ein Klimaschutzgesetz, wie Ministerin Schulze es plant, hülfe nicht nur dem Klima, sondern auch den Unternehmen. Es gäbe ihren Investitionen einen sicheren Rahmen.

Description: Proteste gegen den Ausbau von Stromtrassen und Windparks zeigen: Technische Lösungen allein reichen nicht aus, um den Umbau des Energiesystems voranzubringen. Bürgerinnen und Bürger wollen die Energiewende mitgestalten und sich in Planungs- und Entscheidungsprozesse einbringen. Doch welche Kommunikations- und Partizipationsverfahren tragen dazu bei, die Energiewende effektiv, fair und sozialverträglich zu gestalten? Das Akademienprojekt „Energiesysteme der Zukunft“ (ESYS) hat in seiner Analyse „Partizipation und Kommunikation in der Energiewende“ verschiedene Instrumente untersucht. Die Autorinnen und Autoren empfehlen, bei Entscheidungen über neue Technologien, Anlagen oder Netzen einen frühzeitigen und transparenten Dialog mit allen Beteiligten zu führen. Nur so kann die Politik Lösungen finden, die sachorientiert, nachvollziehbar und angemessen sind.

Description: Das Gruppendelphi-Verfahren ermöglicht einen wissensbasierten und konstruktiven Diskurs mit einer interdisziplinären Gruppe an Experten, die unterschiedliche Sichtweisen und Urteile präsentieren. Dieses Lehrbuch führt in die Grundlagen der Methode des Gruppendelphis ein und stellt dessen praktische Anwendung anschaulich und anhand von konkreten Forschungsprojekten dar. Das Gruppendelphi wurde in Anlehnung an das klassische Delphi-Verfahren zur Entwicklung von wissensbasierten Interpretationen, politischen Leitbildern und Planungsaufgaben mit dem Ziel der Kalibrierung von interdisziplinären Expertenurteilen entwickelt. Die Anwendung des Verfahrens in der Forschungspraxis verdeutlicht die Vielfalt an Einsatzmöglichkeiten und offenbart die dabei auftretenden Stärken und Schwächen. Eine besondere Herausforderung stellt die Entwicklung des standardisierten Fragebogens, dem methodischen Herzstück des Gruppendelphi-Verfahrens, dar.

Description: Einleitung Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 1-3 Das klassische Delphi-Verfahren: Konzept und Vorgehensweise Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 7-25 Das Gruppendelphi: Konzept und Vorgehensweise Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 27-43 Experteneinbindung für ein Gruppendelphi Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 45-56 Die Fragebogenkonstruktion eines Gruppendelphis Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 57-85 Die Auswertung eines Gruppendelphis Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 87-92 Zusammenfassung Teil I Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 93-95 Gruppendelphi zur Analyse des Wissenstandes Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 99-110 Gruppendelphi zur Identifikation von Handlungsempfehlungen Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 111-122 Gruppendelphi als Evaluationsinstrument Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 123-140 Gruppendelphi zur Plausibilisierung von Forschungsergebnissen Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 141-156 Zusammenfassung Teil II Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 157-160 Praktische und pragmatische Implikationen Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 163-171 Kombinationsmöglichkeiten mit anderen Forschungsmethoden Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 173-180 Zusammenfassung Teil III Niederberger, Marlen (et al.) Seiten 181-182

Description: Inhabitants of Pacific Small Island States are facing multiple socio-ecological pressures and the impacts of global climate change aggravate the situation. In order to reduce present and future vulnerabilities it is necessary to address the causes of such detrimental alterations and to find sustainable ways to cope with present and projected challenges. Studying people’s perspectives and agency, or in other words, their perceptions and behaviour, can help to better understand how sustainable practices can be motivated and can contribute to an increased efficiency of mitigation and adaptation projects. Despite increasing research related to environmental changes and their resulting impacts for the Pacific island region, the breadth of perspectives of local people is often under-represented in science and policy. This thesis therefore illustrates the role and diversity of perceptions that guide human behaviour in the context of addressing environmental challenges. Based on a summary of theoretical considerations three major areas of relevant perceptions have been identified. These include perceptions related to environmental change, coping strategies, and social processes. In a survey study (N=180) perceptions of climate-related environmental changes and ways of addressing resulting impacts have been investigated in Tuvalu, Samoa, and Tonga. The results reveal that the respondents perceive a multitude of alterations and attribute them mainly to irresponsible human behaviour. The perceptions of the intensity of change and the degree of perceived impacts vary within and between island states. A certain fraction of this variance can be explained by geographical and climatic differences between the islands and sociodemographic variables. People’s perspectives on their ability to cope with the impacts on their lives reflect not only the diversity of measures that locals use, but also their will to adapt and the acknowledgement of their own responsibilities. However, the perception of lacking skills, opportunities, and low self-efficacy are likely to hinder effective adaptation. Sustainable ways of adaptation could therefore be encouraged by offering information about effective measures, skills to implement them, and the availability of materials. Here, the study results regarding the expectations that locals have of other actors, such as governments, NGOs, and the church, can be helpful for developing coherent support. The findings could be incorporated by local organizations to a) further identify specific needs of communities, b) work on tailored information about environmental change and effective coping strategies, and c) find ways for approaching and motivating different demographic groups. Thereby, this dissertation could contribute to an enhanced understanding of the complexity of local perspectives on current developments and to advance strategies for a transition to more sustainable lifestyles.