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  • 551.6  (38)
  • 538.7  (10)
  • English  (48)
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  • 2020-2022  (48)
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  • English  (48)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its governing processes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated in the Kiel Climate Model. Under LGM conditions, multidecadal AMOC variability is mainly forced by the surface heat flux variability linked to the East Atlantic pattern (EAP). In contrast, the multidecadal AMOC variability under preindustrial conditions is mainly driven by the surface heat flux variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Stand-alone atmosphere model experiments show that relative to preindustrial conditions, the change in AMOC forcing under LGM conditions is tightly linked to the differences in topography.
    Keywords: 551.6
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground-based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long-term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open-source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetic observatory data ; geomagnetic storm drivers ; historical geomagnetic storms ; supervised machine learning
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Baryonic matter in geospace is almost exclusively in a plasma state, with protons (H +) and to some extent ionized helium (He) and oxygen (O) being the dominant ion species. But also other heavier ion species and even molecular ions are present in geospace. The Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detectors (RAPID) on board the Cluster satellites can identify and characterize some of these ions by utilizing their measured time of flight and energy. Usually, the measurements are then assigned into three discrete species channels; protons (H +), helium (He), and a common channel for carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen (CNO), each with flux, energy, and angular information. But RAPID also has a Direct Event (DE) diagnostic mode in which the full time of flight and energy information for a limited number of incident particles are stored. With knowledge about energy losses in the various detector parts, it is then possible to derive the atomic mass of the incident particle. In this paper we report on results from a study of Cluster DE events during the years 2001–2018, with a particular emphasis of iron (Fe) ions. We show that suprathermal Fe ions can be found all over geospace covered by Cluster, and that the time variation is consistent with modulation by geomagnetic disturbances and solar activity. We do not find any clear correlations between detection of suprathermal Fe and meteor showers or sputtering off the moon.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; composition ; ion outflow ; energetic particles
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Thanks to mapping missions, like Ørsted, CHAMP, and Swarm, we have gained a detailed understanding of the geomagnetic field. High-resolution models like POMME, GRIMM, or CHAOS are able to describe the main parts of the Earth's magnetic field reliably. These models represent well contributions from the core and crustal fields. But their validity of describing magnetospheric field effects is limited to low activity periods (Kp ~ 0–2). Here, we study the differences between CHAMP magnetic observations and the predictions from CHAOS-6-x9, a recent version, outside this validity range. Systematic residuals appear at times of elevated activity. Mean amplitudes at the equator grow up to 12 nT around 20 hr magnetic local time for magnetic activity around Kp = 4.7. Negative residuals are obtained in the evening to midnight sector and positive ones in the morning. A seasonal dependence of the magnetospheric currents causes more negative deflections of the residuals in the winter than in the summer hemisphere. This hemispheric asymmetry cannot be accounted for by a degree 1 spherical harmonics function. A surprising observation is that the residuals show a clear longitude dependent pattern, which changes with local time. The analysis reveals that this feature can be interpreted as a Universal Time dependence of the residuals with a peak-to-peak amplitude of about 8 nT and a period of 12 hr at an activity level of Kp = 4.7. All these results call for a better parameterization of the magnetospheric current effects in a geomagnetic field model that is reliable at least up to moderate activity levels.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetic field ; geomagnetic field model ; magnetospheric currents ; ring current ; near-Earth magnetic effect
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Paleomagnetic records from sediments, archeological artifacts, and lava flows provide the foundation for studying geomagnetic field changes over 0–100 ka. Late Quaternary time-varying spherical harmonic models for 0–100 ka produce a global view used to evaluate new data records, study the paleomagnetic secular variation on centennial to multimillennial timescales, and investigate extreme regional or global events such as the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion. Recent modeling results (GGF100k and LSMOD.2) are compared to previous studies based on regional or global stacks and averages of relative geomagnetic paleointensity variations. Time-averaged field structure is similar on Holocene, 100 ky, and million-year timescales. Paleosecular variation activity varies greatly over 0–100 ka, with large changes in field strength and significant morphological changes that are especially evident when field strength is low. GGF100k exhibits a factor of 4 variation in geomagnetic axial dipole moment, and higher-resolution models suggest that much larger changes are likely during global excursions. There is some suggestion of recurrent field states resembling the present-day South Atlantic Anomaly, but these are not linked to initiation or evolution of excursions. Several properties used to characterize numerical dynamo simulations as “Earth-like” are evaluated and, in future, improved models may yet reveal systematic changes linked to the onset of geomagnetic excursions. Modeling results are useful in applications ranging from ground truth and data assimilation in geodynamo simulations to providing geochronological constraints and modeling the influence of geomagnetic variations on cosmogenic isotope production rates.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; Holocene ; paleomagnetic records ; geomagnetic field variations
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: The magnetic equator in the Brazilian region has moved over 1,100 km northward since 1957, passing the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (TTB), in northern Brazil, around 2013. We recovered and processed TTB hourly mean values of the geomagnetic field horizontal (H) component from 1957 until 2019, allowing the investigation of long-term changes in the daily variation due to the influence of secular variation, solar activity, season, and lunar phase. The H day-to-day variability and the occurrence of the counter electrojet at TTB were also investigated. Until the 1990s, ionospheric solar quiet currents dominated the quiet-time daily variation at TTB. After 2000, the magnitude of the daily variation became appreciably greater due to the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) contribution. The H seasonal and day-to-day variability increased as the magnetic equator approached, but their amplitudes normalized to the average daily variation remained at similar levels. Meanwhile, the amplitude of the lunar variation, normalized in the same way, increased from 5% to 12%. Within the EEJ region, the occurrence rate of the morning counter electrojet (MCEJ) increased with proximity to the magnetic equator, while the afternoon counter electrojet (ACEJ) did not. EEJ currents derived from CHAMP and Swarm satellite data revealed that the MCEJ rate varies with magnetic latitude within the EEJ region while the ACEJ rate is largely constant. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model based on different geomagnetic main field configurations suggest that long-term changes in the geomagnetic daily variation at TTB can be attributed to the main field secular variation.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetism ; space physics ; geomagnetic daily variation ; solar quiet currents ; equatorial electrojet ; equatorial ionosphere
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; large ensembles ; SMILEs ; Regional Climate Model ; precipitation extremes ; subdaily ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: An abundance of evidence indicates that the tropics are expanding. Despite many attempts to decipher the cause, the underlying dynamical mechanism driving tropical expansion is still not entirely clear. Here, based on observations, multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and purposefully designed numerical experiments, the variations and trends of the tropical width are explored from a regional perspective. We find that the width of the tropics closely follows the displacement of oceanic midlatitude meridional temperature gradients (MMTG). Under global warming, as a first-order response, the subtropical ocean experiences more surface warming because of the mean Ekman convergence of anomalously warm water. The enhanced subtropical warming, which is partially independent of natural climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, leads to poleward advance of the MMTG and drives the tropical expansion. Our results, supported by both observations and model simulations, imply that global warming may have already significantly contributed to the ongoing tropical expansion, especially over the ocean-dominant Southern Hemisphere.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Tropical Expansion ; Ocean Circulation ; Jet Stream ; Storm Track ; Mid-latitude Temperature Gradients ; Global Warming
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Vb cyclones are major drivers of extreme precipitation and floods in the study area of hydrological Bavaria (Germany). When assessing climate change impacts on Vb cyclones, internal variability of the climate system is an important underlying uncertainty. Here, we employ a 50-member single-model initial-condition large ensemble of a regional climate model to study climate variability and forced change on Vb cyclones. An artificial neural network detects cutoff lows over central Europe, which are associated with extreme precipitation Vb cyclones. Thus, machine learning filters the large ensemble prior to cyclone tracking. Our results show a striking change in Vb seasonality with a strong decrease of Vb cyclones in summer (−52%) and a large increase in spring (+73%) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. This change exceeds the noise of internal variability and leads to a peak shift from summer to spring. Additionally, we show significant increases in the daily precipitation intensity during Vb cyclones in all seasons.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Vb-cyclones ; Machine Learning ; Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) ; Single-Model Large Ensembles ; Internal Variability ; Floods
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice-ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long-term climate integrations using a locally eddy-resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long-term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy-resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin-up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de-drifting” climate runs after the short spin-up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy-permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; FESOM ; ocean model ; climate model ; unstructured mesh ; Finite Volume
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; 551.6 ; land use change ; climate change projections ; terrestrial ecosystems ; vegetation modeling ; ecosystem service indicators ; legacy effects
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Abstract One of the most intriguing facets of the climate system is that it exhibits variability across all temporal and spatial scales; pronounced examples are temperature and precipitation. The structure of this variability, however, is not arbitrary. Over certain spatial and temporal ranges, it can be described by scaling relationships in the form of power laws in probability density distributions and autocorrelation functions. These scaling relationships can be quantified by scaling exponents which measure how the variability changes across scales and how the intensity changes with frequency of occurrence. Scaling determines the relative magnitudes and persistence of natural climate fluctuations. Here, we review various scaling mechanisms and their relevance for the climate system. We show observational evidence of scaling and discuss the application of scaling properties and methods in trend detection, climate sensitivity analyses, and climate prediction.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; scaling ; climate variability ; memory ; scaling mechanisms ; paleoclimate ; power law
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: We reconstructed the variability of the Earth's strongest hydrological system, the Indian monsoon, over the interval 6.24 to 4.91 Ma at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 353 Site U1448 in the Andaman Sea. We integrated high-resolution benthic and planktic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopes with Mg/Ca measurements of the mixed layer foraminifer Trilobatus sacculifer to reconstruct the isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw) and the gradient between planktic and benthic foraminiferal δ13C. A prominent increase in mixed layer temperatures of ~4°C occurred between 5.55 and 5.28 Ma, accompanied by a change from precession- to obliquity-driven variability in planktic δ18O and δ18Osw. We suggest that an intensified cross-equatorial transport of heat and moisture, paced by obliquity, led to increased summer monsoon precipitation during warm stages after 5.55 Ma. Transient cold stages were characterized by reduced mixed layer temperatures and summer monsoon failure, thus resembling late Pleistocene stadials. In contrast, an overall cooler background climate state with a strengthened biological pump prevailed prior to 5.55 Ma. These findings highlight the importance of internal feedback processes for the long-term evolution of the Indian monsoon.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Indian monsoon ; Miocene-Pliocene transition ; Bay of Bengal ; Mg/Ca paleothermometry ; stable isotopes ; orbital forcing
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Forest canopies present irregular surfaces that alter both the quantity and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation inputs. The drop size distribution (DSD) of rainfall varies with rainfall event characteristics and is altered substantially by the forest stand properties. Yet, the influence of two major European tree species, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. karst), on throughfall DSD is largely unknown. In order to assess the impact of these two species with differing canopy structures on throughfall DSD, two optical disdrometers, one above and one below the canopy of each European beech and Norway spruce, measured DSD of both incident rainfall and throughfall over 2 months at a 10-s resolution. Fractions of different throughfall categories were analysed for single-precipitation events of different intensities. While penetrating the canopies, clear shifts in drop size and temporal distributions of incoming rainfall were observed. Beech and spruce, however, had different DSD, behaved differently in their effect on diameter volume percentiles as well as width of drop spectrum. The maximum drop sizes under beech were higher than under spruce. The mean ± standard deviation of the median volume drops size (D50) over all rain events was 2.7 ± 0.28 mm for beech and 0.80 ± 0.04 mm for spruce, respectively. In general, there was a high-DSD variability within events indicating varying amounts of the different throughfall fractions. These findings help to better understand the effects of different tree species on rainfall partitioning processes and small-scale variations in subcanopy rainfall inputs, thereby demonstrating the need for further research in high-resolution spatial and temporal properties of rainfall and throughfall.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; canopy drip ; canopy interaction ; disdrometer ; droplets ; interception ; rain intensity ; rain rate ; splash droplets
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Precipitation extremes with devastating socioeconomic consequences within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are expected to become more frequent in the near future. The complexity in SAMS behavior, however, poses severe challenges for reliable future projections. Thus, robust paleomonsoon records are needed to constrain the high spatiotemporal variability in the response of SAMS rainfall to different climatic drivers. This study uses Ti/Ca ratios from X-ray fluorescence scanning of a sediment core retrieved off eastern Brazilian to trace precipitation changes over the past 322 Kyr. The results indicate that despite the spatiotemporal complexity of the SAMS, insolation forcing is the primary pacemaker of variations in the monsoonal system. Additional modulation by atmospheric pCO2 suggests that SAMS intensity over eastern Brazil will be suppressed by rising CO2 emissions in the future. Lastly, our record reveals an unprecedented strong and persistent wet period during Marine Isotope Stage 6 driven by anomalously strong trade winds.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; South American Monsoon System (SAMS)
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; chill models ; chill requirement ; heat requirement ; Prunus sp. ; spring frost risk ; temperate trees ; warm winters
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: A full-vector paleomagnetic record, comprising directional data and relative paleointensity (rPI), was derived from 16 sediment cores recovered from the southeastern Black Sea. The obtained data were used to create a stack covering the time window between 68.9 and 14.5 ka. Age models are based on radiocarbon dating and correlations of warming/cooling cycles monitored by high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) elementary ratios and by ice-rafted debris (IRD) in Black Sea sediments to the sequence of “Dansgaard-Oeschger” (D-O) events defined from the Greenland ice core oxygen isotope stratigraphy. The reconstructed prominent lows in paleointensity at about 64.5, 41.2, and 34.5 ka are coeval with the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, the Laschamps, and the Mono Lake excursions, respectively. For a further analysis, the stacked Black Sea paleomagnetic record was converted into one component being parallel to the direction expected from a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) and two components perpendicular to it (EW, inclined NS), representing definitely only non-GAD components of the geomagnetic field. Discussions of the field configurations at the Black Sea site are focused on the three excursional events. The Norwegian-Greenland Sea excursion was dominated by a decaying axial dipole and persisting weak nondipole field, with directional variations still within the range of normal secular variations. The Laschamps excursion comprises two full polarity transitions and a short stable interval of reversed polarity in between. The Mono Lake excursion was mostly dominated by a nondipole field, though with a less pronounced weakening of the axial dipole component.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; Black Sea ; Norwegian-Greenland Sea excursion ; Laschamps excursion ; Mono Lake excursion ; paleosecular variations
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; causal discovery algorithms ; teleconnections ; seasonal forecast ; machine learning ; wheat forecast ; climate precursors
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Rising global temperatures over the last decades have increased heat exposure among populations worldwide. An accurate estimate of the resulting impacts on human health demands temporally explicit and spatially resolved monitoring of near-surface air temperature (Ta). Neither ground-based nor satellite-borne observations can achieve this individually, but the combination of the two provides synergistic opportunities. In this study, we propose a two-stage machine learning-based hybrid model to estimate 1 × 1 km2 gridded intra-daily Ta from surface skin temperature (Ts) across the complex terrain of Israel during 2004–2016. We first applied a random forest (RF) regression model to impute missing Ts from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra satellites, integrating Ts from the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) satellite and synoptic variables from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data sets. The imputed Ts are in turn fed into the Stage 2 RF-based model to estimate Ta at the satellite overpass hours of each day. We evaluated the model's performance applying out-of-sample fivefold cross validation. Both stages of the hybrid model perform very well with out-of-sample fivefold cross validated R2 of 0.99 and 0.96, MAE of 0.42°C and 1.12°C, and RMSE of 0.65°C and 1.58°C (Stage 1: imputation of Ts, and Stage 2: estimation of Ta from Ts, respectively). The newly proposed model provides excellent computationally efficient estimation of near-surface air temperature at high resolution in both space and time, which helps further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; air temperature ; health 〈 6. application/context ; health exposure ; MODIS ; random forest ; remote sensing 〈 1. tools and methods ; statistical methods 〈 1. tools and methods ; surface skin temperature
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; sea surface temperature patterns ; internal variability ; global climate models ; large ensembles ; model evaluation
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: Mapping spatial and temporal variability of urban microclimate is pivotal for an accurate estimation of the ever-increasing exposure of urbanized humanity to global warming. This particularly concerns cities in arid/semi-arid regions which cover two fifths of the global land area and are home to more than one third of the world's population. Focusing on the desert city of Be'er Sheva Israel, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of urban–rural and intra-urban temperature variability by means of satellite observation, vehicular traverse measurement, and computer simulation. Our study reveals a well-developed nocturnal canopy layer urban heat island in Be'er Sheva, particularly in the winter, but a weak diurnal cool island in the mid-morning. Near surface air temperature exhibits weak urban–rural and intra-urban differences during the daytime (〈1°C), despite pronounced urban surface cool islands observed in satellite images. This phenomenon, also recorded in some other desert cities, is explained by the rapid increase in surface skin temperature of exposed desert soils (in the absence of vegetation or moisture) after sunrise, while urban surfaces are heated more slowly. The study highlights differences among the three methods used for describing urban temperature variability, each of which may have different applications in fields such as urban planning, climate change mitigation, and epidemiological research.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Israel ; desert city ; urban microclimate ; mapping methods
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: During the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) field campaign ∼900 radiosondes were launched from 12 stations in southern West Africa from 15 June to 31 July 2016. Subsequently, data-denial experiments were conducted using the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the radiosondes' impact on the quality of analyses and forecasts. As observational reference, satellite-based estimates of rainfall and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) as well as the radiosonde measurements themselves are used. With regard to the analyses, the additional observations show positive impacts on winds throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere, while large lower-tropospheric cold and dry biases are hardly reduced. Nonetheless, downstream, that is farther inland from the radiosonde stations, we find a significant increase (decrease) in low-level night-time temperatures (monsoon winds) when incorporating the DACCIWA observations, suggesting a possible linkage via weaker cold air advection from the Gulf of Guinea. The associated lower relative humidity leads to reduced cloud cover in the DACCIWA analysis. Closer to the coast and over Benin and Togo, DACCIWA observations increase low-level specific humidity and precipitable water, possibly due to changes in advection and vertical mixing. During daytime, differences between the two analyses are generally smaller at low levels. With regard to the forecasts, the impact of the additional observations is lost after a day or less. Moderate improvements occur in low-level wind and temperature but also in rainfall over the downstream Sahel, while impacts on OLR are ambiguous. The changes in precipitation appear to also affect high-level cloud cover and the tropical easterly jet. The overall rather small observation impact suggests that model and data assimilation deficits are the main limiting factors for better forecasts in West Africa. The new observations and physical understanding from DACCIWA can hopefully contribute to reducing these issues.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; data-denial experiment ; field campaign ; radiosonde measurements ; West African monsoon
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The driving factors that influence the spatial and annual variability of thunderstorms across Europe are still poorly understood. Due to a lack of long-term, reliable and consistent information about the occurrence of convective storms, a weather type classification has been developed that estimates thunderstorm probability from a combination of appropriate meteorological quantities on the mesoscale. Based on this approach, the temporal and spatial variability of convection-favouring environments is investigated between 1958 and 2014 using a high-resolution reanalysis dataset. To identify potential drivers for convective days, typical upper-level flow patterns were deduced using a multivariate approach. Our results suggest a strong link between local-scale thunderstorm activity and large-scale flow and air mass properties, such as stability, moisture, or vertical lifting. For example, while all over central Europe the most prominent pattern is given by a southwesterly flow type over the respective area, distinct regional discrepancies regarding further favourable flow types are observed. The crucial role of large-scale flow is further studied by assessing the relation between Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and widespread convective activity. It is found that positive phases of the East Atlantic or Scandinavian patterns go along with a significant enhancement of convection-favouring conditions in several European regions, which can be explained by anomalies in the large-scale temperature and flow fields. Sea-surface temperature over the Bay of Biscay likewise impacts the convective environment, with the largest positive effect over the western part of the study area.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; East Atlantic pattern ; large-scale flow ; NAO ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; SCAND ; Scandinavian pattern ; teleconnection patterns ; thunderstorms ; weather classification schemes
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; equilibrium climate sensitivity ; climate models
    Language: English
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic North Atlantic is experiencing rapid changes in the surface climate and sea ice distribution, with impacts for the coupled climate system and the local society. This study utilizes observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) from 1980–2016 across the whole Svalbard archipelago, and sea ice extent (SIE) from operational sea ice charts to conduct a systematic assessment of climatologies, long-term changes and regional differences. The proximity to the warm water mass of the West Spitsbergen Current drives a markedly warmer climate in the western coastal regions compared to northern and eastern Svalbard. This imprints on the SIE climatology in southern and western Svalbard, where the annual maxima of 50–60% area ice coverage are substantially less than 80–90% in the northern and eastern fjords. Owing to winter-amplified warming, the local climate is shifting towards more maritime conditions, and SIE reductions of between 5 and 20% per decade in particular regions are found, such that a number of fjords in the west have been virtually ice-free in recent winters. The strongest decline comes along with SAT forcing and occurs over the most recent 1–2 decades in all regions; while in the 1980s and 1990s, enhanced northerly winds and sea ice drift can explain 30–50% of SIE variability around northern Svalbard, where they had correspondingly lead to a SIE increase. With an ongoing warming it is suggested that both the meteorological and cryospheric conditions in eastern Svalbard will become increasingly similar to what is already observed in the western fjords, namely suppressed typical Arctic climate conditions.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Arctic warming ; climatology ; observations ; sea ice ; surface meteorology ; Svalbard
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: We present the new Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS). We demonstrate that ARTHUS measurements resolve (1) the strength of the inversion layer at the planetary boundary layer top, (2) elevated lids in the free troposphere during daytime and nighttime, and (3) turbulent fluctuations in water vapor and temperature, simultaneously, also during daytime. Very stable and reliable performance was demonstrably achieved during more than 2,500 hr of operations time experiencing a huge variety of weather conditions. ARTHUS provides temperature profiles with resolutions of 10–60 s and 7.5–100 m vertically in the lower free troposphere. During daytime, the statistical uncertainty of the water vapor mixing ratio is 〈2 % in the lower troposphere for resolutions of 5 min and 100 m. Temperature statistical uncertainty is 〈0.5 K even up to the middle troposphere. ARTHUS fulfills the stringent WMO breakthrough requirements on nowcasting and very short range forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Water-Vapor and Temperature Raman lidar ; Atmospheric Boundary Layer ; Thermodynamic Profiler ; Turbulence ; Temperature inversion layers
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: The seasonal cycle of rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is dominated by the latitudinal migration and activity of the tropical rain belt (TRB). The TRB exhibits high interannual variability in the GHA and the reasons for the recent dry period in the Long Rains (March–May) are poorly understood. In addition, few studies have addressed the rainfall fluctuations during the Msimu Rains (Dec.–Mar.) in the southern GHA region. Interannual variations of the seasonal cycle of the TRB between 1981 and 2018 were analysed using two statistical indices. The Rainfall Cluster Index (RCI) describes the seasonal cycle as a succession of six characteristic rainfall patterns, while the Seasonal Location Index (SLI) captures the latitudinal location of the TRB. The SLI and RCI depict the full seasonal cycle of the TRB supporting interpretations of the interannual variations and trends. The Msimu Rains are dominated by two clusters with opposite rainfall characteristics between the Congo Basin and Tanzania. The associated anomalies in moisture flux and divergence indicate variations in the location of the TRB originating from an interplay between low-level air flows from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and tropical and subtropical teleconnections. The peak period of the Long Rains shows a complex composition of five clusters, which is tightly connected to intraseasonal and interannual variability of latitudinal locations of the TRB. A persistent location of the TRB near the equator, evidenced in a frequent occurrence of a cluster related to an anomalously weak Walker circulation, is associated with wet conditions over East Africa. Dry Long Rains are associated with strong and frequent latitudinal variations of the TRB position with a late onset and intermittent rainfall. These results offer new opportunities to understand recent variability and trends in the GHA region.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Greater Horn of Africa ; seasonal cycle of rainfall ; ropical rain belt ; interannual variability
    Language: English
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: State-of-the-art paleoclimate research strongly depends on the availability of time-equivalent markers as chronological control to disentangle interrelationships in the climate system from regional to global scale. Geomagnetic reversals are regarded as excellent age constraints because they are global events and independent from climatic conditions. However, spatial variations of timing and internal dynamics of reversals may limit their precision. Our 1.2 Ma high-resolution (~25 cm/kyr) sediment record from Lake Ohrid is promising to precisely depict the Matuyama-Brunhes (MB) reversal and the Jaramillo subchron. Two generations of diagenetic ferrimagnetic minerals are present in glacial intervals of the Lake Ohrid record. Early diagenetic greigite acquired a quasi synsedimentary chemical magnetization, while a late diagenetic greigite formation, triggered by the upward diffusion of H2S-rich waters, obscures the polarity record at the top of the Jaramillo. Interglacial intervals are unaffected by greigite formation, likely due to low iron concentrations. Based on an orbitally tuned age model with tephrostratigraphic markers, the base of Jaramillo can be precisely dated to 1072.4 ka, and the MB reversal to 778.5 ka. Both polarity reversals occurred very rapidly in our record, lasting 2.3 and 1 kyr, respectively. Our results reveal that the dipole component of the Earth's magnetic field fell below the nondipole components only for a short duration in the Mediterranean region. The comparison of the timing of the MB boundary across different archives implies that the onset of the reversal provides a more synchronous age marker compared to often used midpoint ages.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; magnetostratigraphy ; diagenesis ; rock magnetism ; greigite ; fast magnetic reversals ; Matuyama-Brunhes
    Language: English
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; Kp index ; geomagnetic activity ; empirical prediction ; solar wind ; forecast ; AI
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Estimates of radiative fluxes under cloud-free conditions (“clear-sky”) are required in many fields, from climatic analyses of solar transmission to estimates of solar energy potential for electricity generation. Ideally, these fluxes can be obtained directly from measurements of solar fluxes at the surface. However, common standard methods to identify clear-sky conditions require observations of both the total and the diffuse radiative fluxes at very high temporal resolution of minutes, which restricts these methods to a few, well-equipped sites. Here we propose a simple method to estimate clear-sky fluxes only from typically available global radiation measurements (Rsd) at (half-)hourly resolution. Plotting a monthly sample of observed Rsd against the corresponding incoming solar radiation at the top of atmosphere (potential solar radiation) reveals a typical triangle shape with clear-sky conditions forming a distinct, linear slope in the upper range of observations. This upper slope can be understood as the fractional transmission of solar radiation representative for cloud-free conditions of the sample period. We estimate this upper slope through quantile regression. We employ data of 42 stations of the worldwide Baseline Surface Radiation Network to compare our monthly estimates with the standard clear-sky identification method developed by Long and Ackerman (2000, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900077). We find very good agreement of the derived fractional solar transmission (R2 = 0.73) across sites. These results thus provide confidence in applying the proposed method to the larger set of global radiation measurements to obtain further observational constraints on clear-sky fluxes and cloud radiative effects.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; cloud-free ; clear-sky ; global radiation ; transmission ; quantile regression
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the long-term response to doubled atmospheric CO2 and likely between 1.5 and 4.5 K. Conventional general circulation models do not convincingly narrow down this range, and newly developed nonhydrostatic models with relatively fine horizontal resolutions of a few kilometers have thus far delivered diverse results. Here we use the nonhydrostatic ICON model with the physics package normally used for climate simulations at resolutions as fine as 5 km to study the response to a uniform surface warming in an aquaplanet configuration. We apply the model in two setups: one with convection parametrization employed and one with explicit convection. ICON exhibits a negative total feedback independent of convective representation, thus providing a stable climate with an ECS comparable to other general circulation models, though three interesting new results are found. First, ECS varies little across resolution for both setups but runs with explicit convection have systematically lower ECS than the parametrized case, mainly due to more negative tropical clear-sky longwave feedbacks. These are a consequence of a drier mean state of about 6% relative humidity for explicit convection and less midtropospheric moistening with global warming. Second, shortwave feedbacks switch from positive to negative with increasing resolution, originating foremost in the tropics and high latitudes. Third, the model shows no discernible high cloud area feedback (iris effect) in any configuration. It is possible that ICON's climate model parametrizations applied here are less appropriate for cloud resolving scales, and therefore, ongoing developments aim at implementing a more advanced prognostic cloud microphysics scheme.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; ICON ; climate change feedbacks ; aquaplanet ; high resolution ; explicit convection ; ECS
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: Climate models have substantial biases in the climatological latitude of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet and the time scale of annular mode variability and disagree on the jet response to climate change. Zonally symmetric dry dynamical cores are often used for idealized modeling of the jet response to forcing and its sensitivity to model setup changes. The limits to which these models represent the key mechanisms that control the jet in complex models or the real world have not been systematically investigated. Here we show that substantial intermodel differences in jet latitude and strength can arise from differences in dynamical cores and resolved topography. Including topography and a more realistic surface drag in a dry model substantially alters the jet response to changes in drag strength. Using real-world maps, enhanced drag over land shifts the jet poleward, whereas enhanced drag over the ocean leads to an equatorward shift. No universal relationship between annular mode time scale and forced response emerges in the dry model with topography. These results suggest that zonally symmetric models with Rayleigh drag lack important mechanisms that control the behavior of the midlatitude jet in coupled climate models. A dry model with topography and quadratic surface drag can fill this gap in the model hierarchy.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; eddy-driven jet ; dynamical core ; drag ; idealized models ; topography
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of a great variety of state-of-the-art precipitation datasets against gauge observations over the Karun basin in southwestern Iran. In particular, we consider (a) gauge-interpolated datasets (GPCCv8, CRU TS4.01, PREC/L, and CPC-Unified), (b) multi-source products (PERSIANN-CDR, CHIRPS2.0, MSWEP V2, HydroGFD2.0, and SM2RAIN-CCI), and (c) reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA5, CFSR, and JRA-55). The spatiotemporal performance of each product is evaluated against monthly precipitation observations from 155 gauges distributed across the basin during the period 2000–2015. This way, we find that overall the GPCCv8 dataset agrees best with the measurements. Most datasets show significant underestimations, which are largest for the interpolated datasets. These underestimations are usually smallest at low altitudes and increase towards more mountainous areas, although there is large spread across the products. Interestingly, no overall performance difference can be found between precipitation datasets for which gauge observations from Karun basin were used, versus products that were derived without these measurements, except in the case of GPCCv8. In general, our findings highlight remarkable differences between state-of-the-art precipitation products over regions with comparatively sparse gauge density, such as Iran. Revealing the best-performing datasets and their remaining weaknesses, we provide guidance for monitoring and modelling applications which rely on high-quality precipitation input.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; evaluation ; interpolated dataset ; Karun basin ; precipitation datasets ; reanalysis dataset ; satellite rainfall estimate
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co-occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co-occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47- and 12-fold, respectively, compared to the present-day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central-East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; compound climate extremes ; population exposure ; regional climate change ; Africa ; CORDEX-CORE ; regional climate models
    Language: English
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common data set and evaluation metrics make intercomparison between studies difficult. Here we present a benchmark data set for data-driven medium-range weather forecasting (specifically 3–5 days), a topic of high scientific interest for atmospheric and computer scientists alike. We provide data derived from the ERA5 archive that has been processed to facilitate the use in machine learning models. We propose simple and clear evaluation metrics which will enable a direct comparison between different methods. Further, we provide baseline scores from simple linear regression techniques, deep learning models, as well as purely physical forecasting models. The data set is publicly available at https://github.com/pangeo-data/WeatherBench and the companion code is reproducible with tutorials for getting started. We hope that this data set will accelerate research in data-driven weather forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; machine learning ; NWP ; artificial intelligence ; benchmark
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Meteorological droughts have large impacts on society and the environment. A better understanding and quantification of their occurrences can be highly relevant for the development of proper climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience strategies. Here we examine meteorological droughts from observed data covering the 1971–2000 period for the Fulda catchment in Germany by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index. The joint dependency of drought duration and severity is modelled by a copula function, which relates their univariate distributions in a functional relationship. Recurrence intervals are further calculated as a function of the joint relationship and univariate marginals. Future projections are investigated in which downscaled EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections for the period 2021–2050 are used together with the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in order to analyse and compare future joint patterns of duration and severity of events. We find that drought duration and severity present a clear interdependency supporting the choice of a bivariate model. Results suggest substantial differences in the future joint relationship duration–severity. Depending on the RCM and RCP, drought patterns show different magnitude of changes in the future. The projected changes are different for the different returns periods. RCP8.5 shows more severe events and longer drought durations than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The uncertainties of the projected patterns also depend on the RCP and RCM and are larger for higher return periods.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate change ; copulas ; drought duration and severity ; drought events ; extremes ; Fulda catchment ; Standardized Precipitation Index
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2021-09-06
    Description: Abstract Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between −200 and ~1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be ~22 and ~37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be ~10–20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh-water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long-term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; analogues downscaling ; climate change ; CMIP5 predictions ; Eastern Mediterranean ; seasonal precipitation ; synoptic classification ; weather regimes
    Language: English
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Research on improving the prediction skill of climate models requires refining the quality of observational data used for initializing and tuning the models. This is especially true in the polar regions where uncertainties about the interactions between sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere are driving ongoing monitoring efforts. The Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) is an European Space Agency (ESA) candidate mission which promises to offer high resolution, low uncertainty observation capabilities at the 1.4, 6.9, 10.65, 18.7, and 36.5 GHz frequencies. To assess the potential impact of CIMR for sea ice parameter retrieval, a comparison is made between retrievals based on present AMSR2 observations and a retrieval using future CIMR equivalent observations over a data set of validated sea ice concentration (SIC) values. An optimal estimation retrieval method (OEM) is used which can use input from different channel combinations to retrieve seven geophysical parameters (sea ice concentration, multi-year ice fraction, ice surface temperature, columnar water vapor, liquid water path, over ocean wind speed, and sea surface temperature). An advantage of CIMR over existing radiometers is that it would provide higher spatial resolution observations at the lower frequency channels (6.9, 10.65, and 18.7 GHz) which are less sensitive to atmospheric influence. This enables the passive microwave based retrieval of SIC and other surface parameters with higher resolution and lower uncertainty than is currently possible. An information content analysis expands the comparison between AMSR2 and CIMR to all retrievable surface and atmospheric parameters. This analysis quantifies the contributions to the observed signal and highlights the differences between different input channel combinations. The higher resolution of the low frequency CIMR channels allow for unprecedented detail to be achieved in Arctic passive microwave sea ice retrievals. The presence of 1.4 GHz channels on board CIMR opens up the possibility for thin sea ice thickness (SIT) retrieval. A combination of collocated AMSR2 and SMOS observations is used to simulate a full CIMR suite of measurements, and the OEM is modified to include SIT as a retrieval parameter. The output from different retrieval configurations is compared with an operational SIT product. The CIMR instrument can provide increased accuracy for SIC retrieval at very high resolutions with a combination of the 18.7 and 36.5 GHz channels while also maintaining sensitivity for atmospheric water vapor retrieval. In combination with the 1.4 GHz channels, SIT can be added as an eighth retrieval parameter with performance on par with existing operational products.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; sea ice ; satellite semote sensing ; passive microwave ; Arctic ; optimal estimation ; information content analysis
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Meteorologists in the energy industry increasingly draw upon the potential for enhanced sub-seasonal predictability of European surface weather following anomalous states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). How the link between the SPV and the large-scale tropospheric flow translates into forecast skill for surface weather in individual countries – a spatial scale that is particularly relevant for the energy industry – remains an open question. Here we quantify the effect of anomalously strong and weak SPV states at forecast initial time on the probabilistic extended-range reforecast skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting country- and month-ahead-averaged anomalies of 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and precipitation. After anomalous SPV states, specific surface weather anomalies emerge, which resemble the opposing phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that forecast skill is, to first order, only enhanced for countries that are entirely affected by these anomalies. However, the model has a flow-dependent bias for 2 m temperature (T2M): it predicts the warm conditions in Western, Central and Southern Europe following strong SPV states well, but is overconfident with respect to the warm anomaly in Scandinavia. Vice versa, it predicts the cold anomaly in Scandinavia following weak SPV states well, but struggles to capture the strongly varying extent of the cold air masses into Central and Southern Europe. This tends to reduce skill (in some cases significantly) for Scandinavian countries following strong SPV states, and most pronounced, for many Central, Southern European, and Balkan countries following weak SPV states. As most of the weak SPV states are associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), our study thus advices particular caution when interpreting sub-seasonal regional T2M forecasts following SSWs. In contrast, it suggests that the model benefits from enhanced predictability for a considerable part of Europe following strong SPV states.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; energy ; European countries ; polar vortex ; stratosphere ; sub-seasonal forecast skill ; sudden stratospheric warming ; surface weather
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: High-quality time series of meteorological observations are required for reliable assessments of climate trends. To analyze inhomogeneities in time series, parallel measurements can be used. Germany's national meteorological service DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) operates a network of climate reference stations. At these stations, manual and automatic observations have been taken in parallel. These parallel measurements therefore allow analyzing the impact of the transition on the homogeneity of time series of several meteorological parameters. Here, we present results for temperature. The differences between automatic and manual measurements are tested on breakpoints caused by instrumental defects or changes in the measurement conditions. The time series are highly correlated such that small breaks can be identified. The detected breakpoints are verified against metadata if available. In the case of no available metadata information, a procedure is suggested to identify the inhomogeneous time series (manual or automatic time series). Afterwards, the time series are homogenized. The homogenized time series are used to analyze the impact of changing the observing system from manual to automatic measurements on daily mean temperature.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; automatization ; breakpoint detection ; climate observations ; homogenization ; parallel measurements ; temperature series
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: Understanding the dynamic evolution of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts during both storm and nonstorm times is a challenging task. The U.S. National Science Foundation's Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) focus group “Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling” has selected two storm time and two nonstorm time events that occurred during the second year of the Van Allen Probes mission for in-depth study. Here, we perform simulations for these GEM challenge events using the 3D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code. We set up the outer L* boundary using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites and validate the simulation results against satellite observations from both the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites and Van Allen Probe missions for 0.9-MeV electrons. Our results show that the position of the plasmapause plays a significant role in the dynamic evolution of relativistic electrons. The magnetopause shadowing effect is included by using last closed drift shell, and it is shown to significantly contribute to the dropouts of relativistic electrons at high L*. We perform simulations using four different empirical radial diffusion coefficient models for the GEM challenge events, and the results show that these simulations reproduce the general dynamic evolution of relativistic radiation belt electrons. However, in the events shown here, simulations using the radial diffusion coefficients from Brautigam and Albert (2000) produce the best agreement with satellite observations.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; radiation belt ; simulation ; relativistic electrons ; magnetopause shadowing ; wave-particle interaction ; plasmapause
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: The paper describes an update of the GECCO (German contribution to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project) ocean synthesis, now in its version 3, and provides an evaluation of the results with assimilated and independent data. GECCO3 covers the 71-year period 1948–2018 and differs from its predecessor by returning to a single assimilation window instead of partitioning the period in 5-year-long overlapping windows which was previously necessary to yield convergence. A solution to the convergence problem is presented. GECCO3 is intended to be used for the initialization of coupled climate models and is configured for the higher-resolution version of the earth system model (MPI-ESM) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. It uses the bathymetry and grid of the MPI-ESM with quasi-uniform resolution of 0.4°, thereby providing the first global eddy-permitting synthesis based on the adjoint method. The synthesis additionally features the estimation of various mixing parameters and can regionally choose between explicit or parametrized eddy fluxes. Except for the altimeter data in tropical regions, GECCO3 is in better agreement with the assimilated data than GECCO2. The improvements relative to the in situ data partly result from the much larger amount of Argo data, which show lower model–data differences. Global heat content changes are in good agreement with recent estimates, but show uptake almost exclusively in the top 700 m. An alternative version of GECCO3, created by starting from different first-guess control parameters, was used to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and state due to lack of convergence. This estimate suggests a large uncertainty related to the uptake of heat into the lower layers, while estimates of mean meridional transport of heat and freshwater are not affected.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; 551.46 ; climate model initialization ; eddy-permitting ocean synthesis ; heat content change ; ocean transports
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: China is the world's second-largest economy, and its capital Beijing has been suffering from severe haze pollution in recent years. However, how the winter haze events in Beijing vary under different global warming scenarios is still open for debate. In order to analyse long-term winter haze characteristics in Beijing in the future, we have simulated haze events using the haze weather index (HWI) for the warming periods of 1.5 and 2.0°C, based on 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results indicate that 16 CMIP5 models have preferable performance in simulating the spatial pattern and occurrence frequency of winter haze events in Beijing. We highlight that in the 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming period (2020s–2050s), Beijing will face a significant increasing trend (6–9% growth rate) in the occurrence of winter haze events compared with the reference period (1986–2005). The frequency of winter haze events under the RCP4.5 increases less than under the RCP8.5 in the 1.5°C warming period but is closer to RCP8.5 in the 2.0°C warming period. The increase of winter haze events with respect to natural factors in Beijing could be attributed to stronger atmospheric inversions, weaker East Asian winter monsoons, and a shallowing East Asian trough induced by global warming. Our results will provide scientific instructions for environmental departments to better face meteorological hazards, such as air pollution episodes, thereby improving the early warning mechanism system for global warming.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; 1.5°C ; 2.0°C ; China ; CMIP5 ; global warming ; haze
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: Ocean heat transport is often thought to play a secondary role for Arctic surface warming in part because warm water which flows northward is prevented from reaching the surface by a cold and stable halocline layer. However, recent observations in various regions indicate that occasionally, warm water is found directly below the surface mixed layer. Here we investigate Arctic Ocean surface energy fluxes and the cold halocline layer in climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. An ensemble of 15 models shows decreased sea ice formation and increased ocean energy release during fall, winter, and spring for a high-emission future scenario. Along the main pathways for warm water advection, this increased energy release is not locally balanced by increased Arctic Ocean energy uptake in summer. Because during Arctic winter, the ocean mixed layer is mainly heated from below, we analyze changes of the cold halocline layer in the monthly mean Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data. Fresh water acts to stabilize the upper ocean as expected based on previous studies. We find that in spite of this stabilizing effect, periods in which warm water is found directly or almost directly below the mixed layer and which occur mainly in winter and spring become more frequent in high-emission future scenario simulations, especially along the main pathways for warm water advection. This could reduce sea ice formation and surface albedo.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; 551.6 ; Arctic ; climate change ; cold halocline ; climate modeling
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Northern Hemisphere subtropics ; poleward shift ; MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble ; forced response ; natural variability ; time of emergence
    Language: English
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: Nonrainy days have rather different hydrologic and radiative conditions than rainy days, but few investigations considered how these different conditions contribute to the observed global warming. Here, we show that global warming is considerably stronger on nonrainy days using observations from China. We find that trends in mean temperature on nonrainy days are about 0.1 ° C/10 yr higher than on rainy days, and that about 80% of the total temperature increase is contributed by nonrainy days. The main reason is likely to be a stronger sensitivity of downwelling longwave radiation to greenhouse forcing on nonrainy days due to fewer clouds and water vapor compared with rainy days, which is not a hydrological effect but mainly a radiative effect. Our findings are consistent with the stronger mean temperature trends in drier regions and imply that the different temperature sensitivities on nonrainy and rainy days may have profound effects on natural and social systems.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; global warming ; rainy day ; temperature trend
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2021-10-26
    Description: The relationship between River Ammer flood frequency variability, extreme summer climate over Europe, and solar forcing is investigated. First, we used observational data to evaluate extreme weather and climate anomaly patterns associated with flood and solar forcing as well as the possible dynamical mechanisms behind them. Then, the annual resolution flood layer record from the Lake Ammer sediments is analysed to evaluate millennial-scale variability of floods and possible related extreme climate patterns back to 5,500 years BP. A composite analysis reveals that observed River Ammer flood frequency variability at interannual to multidecadal time scales is connected to large-scale extreme precipitation and temperature patterns. From a synoptic-scale perspective, the extreme precipitation pattern associated with floods is related to an increase in the frequency of high upper-level potential vorticity (PV) events over western Europe and a decrease over eastern Europe and western Russia. Increased (decreased) frequency of upper-level high PV events is related to more (less) surface extreme precipitation occurrence. Furthermore, we show that increased frequency of upper-level high PV events over western Europe is associated with enhanced blocking activity over eastern Europe. Therefore, the out of phase interannual to millennial-scale variations of River Ammer flood frequency and solar irradiance, as presented in previous studies, can be explained by a solar modulation of eastern European-western Russia summer blocking and associated upstream upper-level wave breaking activity. In addition, we identify two distinct quasi-periodic signals in both frequency of Lake Ammer flood layer and solar irradiance records with periods of ~900 years and ~2,300 years. We argue that similar cycles should dominate millennial-scale variations of blocking activity in eastern Europe-western Russia as well as extreme precipitation and flood frequency variability over central and western Europe during the last ~5,500 years.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; floods ; extreme precipitation ; potential vorticity ; solar forcing
    Language: English
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2021-10-26
    Description: Opportunistic constant target matching is a new method for satellite intercalibration. It solves a long-standing issue with the traditional simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) method, namely, that it typically provides only data points with cold brightness temperatures for humidity sounding instruments on sun-synchronous satellites. In the new method, a geostationary infrared sensor (SEVIRI) is used to select constant target matches for two different microwave sensors (MHS on NOAA 18 and Metop A). We discuss the main assumptions and limitations of the method and explore its statistical properties with a simple Monte Carlo simulation. The method was tested in a simple case study with real observations for this combination of satellites for MHS Channel 3 at 183 ± 1 GHz, the upper tropospheric humidity channel. For the studied 3-month test period, real observations are found to behave consistently with the simulations, increasing our confidence that the method can be a valuable tool for intercalibration efforts. For the selected case study, the new method confirms that the bias between NOAA 18 and Metop A MHS Channel 3 is very small, with absolute value below 0.05 K.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; satellite ; calibration ; collocation ; microwave ; infrared
    Language: English
    Type: map
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