ALBERT

Note: Contents Foreword xi OPENING ADDRESSES Professor G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General, World Meteorological Organization Dr M.K. Tolba, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme Dr F. Mayor, Director General, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Professor M.G.K. Menon, President, International Council of Scientific Unions Dr H. de Haen, Assistant Director General, Food and Agriculture Organization SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SESSIONS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE IPCC ASSESSMENT The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / B. Bolin Scientific Assessment of Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Working Group I Report / J.T. Houghton Greenhouse Gases and Other Climate Forcing Agents / U. Siegenthaler and E. Sanhueza Climate Change Prediction / J. F. B. Mitchell and Zeng Qingcun Climate Trends and Variability / M. Coughian and B.S. Nyenzi Climate Change Impact Studies: The IPCC Working Group II Report / Yu. Izrael Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources / H.E. Lins, I.A. Shiklomanov and E.Z. Stakhiv Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture, A Critical Assessment / S.K. Sinha Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Settlements, the Energy, Transport and Industrial Sectors; Human Health and Air Quality / M. Hashimoto and S. Nishioka The Response Strategies Working Group of the IPCC / F. Bernthal The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy / P. Vellinga and R.J. Swart Adaptation Measures / K.M. Sarma Limitation Strategies / K. Yokobori Report of the IPCC Special Committee on the Participation of Developing Countries / J. Ripert OVERVIEW OF THE WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME The World Climate Programme: Achievements and Challenges / J.P, Bruce Modern Data and Applications: World Climate Data Programme, World Climate Applications Programme / V.G. Boldirev Overview of the World Climate Research Programme / P. Morel World Climate Impact Studies Programme / J.C.I. Dooge CLIMATE RESEARCH Global Climate, Energy and Water Cycle / G.A. McBean Remote Sensing and Global Climate Change: Water Cycle and Energy Budget / H. Grassl World Ocean Circulation and Climate Change: Research Programmes and a Global Observing System / D.J. Baker Short Term Climate Variability and Predictions / J. Shukia Paleodata, Paleoclimates and the Greenhouse Effect / H. Oeschger Climate Prediction Based on Past and Current Analogues / M.I. Budyko Detection of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect on Climate / T.M.L. Wigley and S.C.B. Raper CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Water Climate, Water and Development / J. Sircoulon Drought Issues for the 1990s / M.H. Glantz and W. Degefu Agriculture and Food Agriculture and Food Systems / M.S. Swaminathan The Potential Effect of Climate Changes on Agriculture / M. Parry and Zhang Jiachen Oceans, Fisheries and Coastal Zones Effects of Global Climatic Change on Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries / T. Kawasaki Sea Level Rise and Coastal Zone Management / E.M. Eid and C.H. Huisbergen Energy Beginning to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions need not be Expensive: Examples from the Energy Sector / E. Mills, D. Wilson and TB. Johansson Land Use and Urban Planning Climate and Land Use in North Africa / M. Kassas Climate and Urban Planning / R. Taesler Human Dimensions Human Well-being, Diseases and Climate / W.H. Weihe and R. Mertens Population and Global Climate Change / D. Norse Public Information and Attitudes / R. Lamb Environment and Development Climate, Environment and Ecology / W.H. Schlesinger Climate, Tropical Ecosystems and the Survivability of Species / P. Olindo Some Possible Impacts of Climate Change on African Ecosystems / C.H.D. Magadza Forests Forests: Their Role in Global Change, with Special Reference to the Brazilian Amazon / E. Salati, R.L. Victoria, L.A. Martinelli and J. E. Richey Integrated Studies Climate Change and Risk Management / K. Turner, T. ORiordan and R. Kemp Climate, Climate Change, and the Economy / N.S. Jodha and W.J. Maunder Assessing the Regional Implications of Climate Variability and Change / W.E. Riebsame and A. Magalhaes SPECIAL PRESENTATION Climate Change and the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development / M.F. Strong TASK GROUPS AND CONSULTATION GROUP REPORTS Task Group I Climate, Hydrology and Water Resources Task Group 2 Agriculture and Food Task Group 3 Oceans, Fisheries and Coastal Zones Task Group 4 Energy Task Group 5 Land Use and Urban Planning Task Group 6 Human Dimensions of Climate Change Task Group 7 Environment and Development Task Group 8 Forests Task Group 9 WCP Overview Task Group 10 The World Climate Programme: Overview and Future Task Group 11 Scientific Components of International Agreements Task Group 12 Synthesis Consultation Group on the Special Needs of Developing Countries SUMMARIES OF PANEL DISCUSSIONS Global Climate Analogues and Global Climate Models Climate and Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development Industry's Response Co-operation in International Research Programmes CONFERENCE STATEMENT MINISTERIAL SESSIONS OPENING CEREMONY Introduction by Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General, WMO H.E. Mr. Arnold Koller, President of the Swiss Confederation His Majesty King Hussein Bin Talal, of the Royal Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan The Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland H.E. Mr. Michel Rocard, Prime Minister of France The Rt. Hon. Edward Fenech-Adami, Prime Minister of Malta The Rt. Hon. Bikenibeu Paeniu, Prime Minister of Tuvalu Statement by Dr. E. Saouma, Director General, FAO CLOSING CEREMONY Statement by Dr. F. Mayor, Director General, UNESCO MINISTERIAL DECLARATION Appendix 1 SWCC Inter-Agency Committees Appendix 2 Poster Session Papers Appendix 3 Statement by Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations Appendix 4 Participants at the Scientific/Technical Sessions Appendix 5 Countries and Organizations Represented at the Ministerial Sessions Appendix 6 Participating Non-Governmental Organizations Appendix 7 Acronyms Appendix 8 Units

Note: CONTENTS Preface Symbols Introduction Test procedure Theory Evaluation of the experimental results Example evaluation Results and discussion Literature cited Appendix A. Measured and computed discharge

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Introduction Data collection and processing Analysis General Variations in ridging Ridge height distributions Occurrence of high ridges The tail of the distribution Extreme values Applications to offshore design Conclusions Literature cited Appendix A. Tabulated ice ridge data

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Conversion factors Introduction Descriptions of road test sections Test equipment and procedures. Field repetitive plate bearing tests Data analysis General Layered-elastic analysis of the pavement systems Statistical analysis. Flexural analysis Summary and conclusions Literature cited Appendix A: Resilient surface deflections for the test points

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Introduction Locale and techniques Observations Vertical variations in crystal orientation Regional variations in crystal orientation Summary of observations Causes Initial ice skim Earth’s magnetic field Currents Conclusions and consequences Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Conversion factors Introduction Descriptions of road test sections Test equipment and procedures Field repetitive plate bearing tests Data analysis General Layered-elastic analysis of the pavement systems Statistical analysis Flexural analysis Summary and conclusions Literature cited Appendix A: Resilient surface deflections for the test points

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Introduction Previous work Methods and results Methods of analysis Salinity-chlorophyll a associations Discussion Comparison of ice and water column standing crops Estimated mass of ice associated chl. a Mechanism of ice algae formation in the Weddell Sea Differences between the biological environments of fast and drifting pack ice Conclusions Literature cited Appendix A. Species variations - ice and water column

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Introduction Test sites and ice cover properties Beam testing Results Discussion Conclusions Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Nomenclature Introduction Segregation freezing Analysis Heat conduction in the nascent ice layer Water flow in the unfrozen soil Heat transfer in the unfrozen soil Energy balance at the segregation-freezing front Numerical computation Literature cited Appendix A. Essence of Portnov’s method Appendix B. Frost-heaving without air available

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Summary Introduction Background Objective and procedure Theory of plane surface waves Waveguide design and characteristics Physical apparatus Frequency characteristics Spatial distribution of Ey above the guide Guide wave length Surface wave interaction with a slab discontinuity Experiments with a trough Discussion and conclusions Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Abstrac Preface Introduction Analysis of stress Geometry of the Mohr circle Stress characteristic directions Analysis of strain rate Constitutive equations Strain-rate characteristic directions Constitutive geometry Strain-rate tensor The dyadic expression Plastic work rate Coordinate transformation Example The stress solution Velocity equations in the a-characteristic curvilinear coordinates The constant speed solution Velocity equations in the constant density region Solution in the first constant-density subregion Solution in the second constant-density subregion Solution in the passive region Conclusion Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Page Abstract Preface Conversion factors: U.S. customary to metric (SI) units of measurement Background Objectives Profiling system Approach Profiling method Data reduction and interpretation Results Conclusions Recommendations Literature cited Appendix A. Comparison of ground and aerial data

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Conversion factors: U.S. customary to metric (SI) units of measurement Introduction Theory Solution by superposition Solution by Fourier integral Solution by Fourier series Application and results Literature cited Appendix A: Bearing capacity of river ice for military vehicles Appendix B: Vehicle specifications Appendix C: Fortran II computer program

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Foreword Introduction Terminology Principles of cutting Forces acting on a single cutter Theoretical Ideas on cutting Experimental data on cutting forces Effect of chipping depth on tool forces Effect of rake angle on tool forces Effect of relief angle on cutting forces Effect of side rake on tool forces Effect of base angle or face profile on tool forces Effect of rounding at the cutting edge Effect of tool width on cutting forces Tool compliance and force fluctuations Effect of tool speed on cutting forces Effect of rock properties on cutting forces Tool interaction and kerf spacing Effect of multiple pass cutting on tool forces Effect of tool wear on cutting forces Development of wear Energetics of cutting Energetics of parallel-motion tools Variation of specific energy with chipping depth for a single tool Effect of rake angle on specific energy Effect of relief angle on specific energy Effect of side rake on specific energy Effect of base angle or face profile on specific energy Effect of tip radius on specific energy Effect of tool width on specific energy Effect of tool speed on specific energy Variation of specific energy with rock properties Effect of kerf spacing on specific energy Effect of multiple pass cutting on specific energy Effect of tool wear on specific energy General summary Literature cited Appendix Α. Additional data for ice Appendix Β. Conversion factors: U.S. customary and metric units of measurement

Note: CONTENTS Abstract Preface Conversion factors: US, customary to metric (SI) units of measurement Introduction Infrared camera Core samples State House State House Annex State Library Legislative Office Building Public Health Complex Highway Garage Fish and Game Offlces Supreme Court John O. Morton Building Department of Health and Welfare Laboratory Economics of roof reinsulation Conclusions and recommendations Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Page Abstract Preface Conversion factors for U.S.customary and SI units Introduction Materials, instruments, measurements Experiments with water freezing in fine pores Freezing experiments with bulk water Summary and conclusions Literature cited

Note: Contents Abstract Preface Introduction Test site Pile driving equipment Test instrumentation Testing procedures Pile driving data Pile type vs driving resistance Closed-end vs open-end piles Calculated bearing capacity of pile Effect of pile driving on the embedment medium Pile inclination Slurried-in-place piles Pile load test data Strain gage instrumentation and results Pile excavation Discussion and conclusions Literature cited Appendix A: Theoretical elastic deflection of piles supported by skin friction Appendix B: Trench floor arching study

Note: CONTENTS Page Abstract Preface Introduction Low slope roof problems and repair costs Protected membrane roofs and materials Installations of protected membrane roofs Performance evaluation Test program Effectiveness Thermal efficiency Heat balance Internal cooling due to rain Moisture absorption and thermal conductivity of insulations Durability and life expectancy Fire resistance Patent considerations Costs of roofs Design considerations Proposed specifications Conclusions and recommendations Literature cited

Note: Contents Introduction The discovery Age of the island Island visit Other islands of grounded ice Discussion Literature cited

Note: Contents Abstract Preface Summary Introduction Previous work Results Models for predicting thickness from ice freeboard Comparison between measured and predicted thicknesses Spectral behavior of measured and predicted profiles Comparisons of ice thickness using airborne laser profilometry Conclusions Literature cited Appendix A: Misgivings on isostatic imbalance as a mechanism for sea ice cracking

Note: Contents Preface 1 Introduction 1.1 The necessity for measurements 1.2 Definition of a measurement 1.3 Historical aspects 2 Measurement basics 2.1 Overview of methods 2.1.1 Direct and indirect methods 2.1.2 In-situ and remote sensing methods 2.1.3 Instantaneous and integrating methods 2.1.4 On-line and off-line methods, post-processing 2.1.5 Flux measurements 2.2 Main measurement principles 2.3 Measurements by inversion 2.3.1 Inversion with one variable 2.3.2 Inversion with more than one variable 2.3.3 Well-posed and ill-posed problems 2.4 Measurement instruments 2.4.1 Active and passive instruments 2.4.2 Analogue and digital instruments 2.5 Measurement platforms 2.6 Measurement variables 2.7 General characteristics of measured data 2.8 Data logging 2.9 Quality assurance/quality control 3 In-situ measurements of state variables 3.1 Thermometers 3.1.1 Liquid-in-glass thermometers 3.1.2 Bimetal thermometers 3.1.3 Resistance thermometers, thermistors 3.1.4 Thermocouples, thermopiles 3.1.5 Sonic thermometry 3.1.6 Measurement of infrared radiation 3.1.7 Soil thermometer 3.1.8 Recommendations for temperature measurements 3.2 Measuring moisture 3.2.1 Hygrometer 3.2.2 Psychrometers 3.2.3 Dewpoint determination 3.2.4 Capacitive methods 3.2.5 Recommendations for humidity measurements 3.3 Pressure sensors 3.3.1 Barometers 3.3.2 Hypsometers 3.3.3 Electronic barometers 3.3.4 Microbarometer 3.3.5 Pressure balance 3.3.6 Recommendations for pressure measurements 3.4 Wind measurements 3.4.1 Estimation from visual observations 3.4.2 Wind direction 3.4.3 Cup anemometer 3.4.4 Pressure tube 3.4.5 Hot wire anemometer 3.4.6 Ultrasonic anemometer 3.4.7 Propeller anemometer 3.4.8 Recommendations for wind measurements 4 In-situ methods for observing liquid water and ice 4.1 Precipitation 4.1.1 Rain sensors (Present Weather Sensors) 4.1.2 Rain gauges (totalisators) 4.1.3 Pluviographs 4.1.4 Disdrometer 4.1.5 Special instruments for snow 4.1.6 Recommendations for precipitation measurements 4.2 Soil moisture 4.2.1 Gravimetric methods 4.2.2 Neutron probes 4.2.3 Time domain reflectrometry (TDR) 4.2.4 Tensiometers 4.2.5 Resistance block tensiometer 4.2.6 Recommendations for soil moisture measurements 5 In-situ measurement of trace substances 5.1 Measurement of trace gases 5.1.1 Physical methods 5.1.2 Chemical methods 5.1.3 Recommendations for the measurement of trace gases 5.2 Particle measurements 5.2.1 Determination of the particle mass 5.2.2 Measuring particle size distributions 5.2.3 Measurement of the chemical composition of particles 5.2.4 Measuring the particle structure 5.2.5 Saltiphon 5.2.6 Recommendations for particle measurements 5.3 Olfactometry 5.4 Radioactivity 5.4.1 Counter tubes 5.4.2 Scintillation counters 5.4.3 Recommendations for radioactivity monitoring 6 In-situ flux measurements 6.1 Measuring radiation 6.1.1 Measuring direct solar radiation 6.1.2 Measuring shortwave irradiance 6.1.3 Measuring longwave irradiance 6.1.4 Measuring the total irradiance 6.1.5 Measuring chill 6.1.6 Sunshine recorder 6.1.7 Recommendations for radiation measurements 6.2 Visual range 6.3 Micrometeorological flux measurements 6.3.1 Cuvettes 6.3.2 Surface chambers 6.3.3 Mass balance method 6.3.4 Inferential method 6.3.5 Gradient method 6.3.6 Bowen-ratio method 6.3.7 Flux variance method 6.3.8 Dissipation method 6.3.9 Eddy covariance method 6.3.10 Eddy accumulation methods 6.3.11 Disjunct eddy covariance method 6.3.12 Recommendations for the measurement of turbulent fluxes 6.4 Evaporation Atmometers 6.4.2 Lysimeters 6.4.3 Evaporation pans and tanks 6.4.4 Recommendations for evaporation measurements 6.5 Soil heat flux 6.6 Inverse emission flux modelling 7 Remote sensing methods 7.1 Basics of remote sensing 7.2 Active sounding methods 7.2.1 RADAR 7.2.2 Windprofilers 7.2.3 SODAR 7.2.4 RASS 7.2.5 LIDAR 7.2.6 Further LIDAR techniques 7.3 Active path-averaging methods 7.3.1 Scintillometers 7.3.2 FTIR 7.3.3 DOAS 7.3.4 Quantum cascade laser 7.4 Passive methods 7.4.1 Radiometers 7.4.2 Photometers 7.4.3 Infrared-Interferometer 7.5 Tomography 7.5.1 Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique 7.5.2 Algebraic Reconstruction Technique (ART) 7.5.3 Smooth Basis Function Minimization (SBFM) 8 Remote sensing of atmospheric state variables 8.1 Temperature 8.1.1 Near-surface temperatures 8.1.2 Temperature profiles 8.2 Gaseous humidity 8.2.1 Integral water vapour content 8.2.2 Vertical profiles 8.2.3 Large-scale humidity distribution 8.3 Wind and turbulence 8.3.1 Small-scale near-surface turbulence 8.3.2 Horizontal wind fields 8.3.3 Vertical wind profiles 8.3.4 Turbulence profiles 8.3.5 Cloud winds 8.3.6 Ionospheric winds 8.4 Mixing-layer heights 8.4.1 LIDAR 8.4.2 SODAR 8.5 Turbulent fluxes 8.6 Ionospheric electron densities 8.7 Recommendations for remote sensing of state variables 9 Remote sensing of water and ice 9.1 Precipitation 9.1.1 RADAR 9.1.2 Precipitation measurements from satellites 9.2 Clouds 9.2.1 Cloud base 9.2.2 Cloud cover 9.2.3 Cloud movement 9.2.4 Water content 9.3 Recommendations for remote sensing of liquid water and ice 10 Remote sensing of trace substances 10.1 Trace gases 10.1.1 Horizontal path-averaging methods 10.1.2 Vertical column densities 10.1.3 Sounding methods 10.2 Aerosols 10.2.1 Aerosol optical depths (AOD) 10.2.2 Sounding methods 10.3 Recommendations for remote sensing of trace substances 11 Remote sensing of surface properties 11.1 Properties of the solid surface 11.1.1 Surface roughness 11.1.2 Land surface temperature 11.1.3 Soil moisture 11.1.4 Vegetation 11.1.5 Snow and ice 11.1.6 Fires 11.2 Properties of the ocean surface 11.2.1 Altitudes of the sea surface 11.2.2 Wave heights 11.2.3 Sea surface temperature 11.2.4 Salinity 11.2.5 Ocean currents 11.2.6 Ice cover, size of ice floes 11.2.7 Algae and suspended sediment concentrations 12 Remote sensing of electrical phenomena 12.1 Spherics 12.1.1 Directional analyses 12.1.2 Distance analyses 12.2 Optical lightning detection 13 Outlook on new developments Literature Subject index Appendix: Technical guidelines and standards Index to the Appendix

Note: Contents Table 1 Daily records Table 2 Extreme temperatures Table 3 Montly means Table 4 Mean temperature in the years 1775-1975 Table 5 Daily means of extreme temperatures Table 6 Relative frequency of daily maximum temperature in months Table 7 Relative frequency of daily minimum temperature Table 8 Relative frequency of relative humidity Table 9 Relative frequency of pressure Table 10 Relative frequency of wind Table 11 Relative frequency of cloud amount Table 12 Relative frequency of daily rainfall Table 13 Statistical characteristics of daily observations Table 14 Monthly means in 5 years periods Table 15 Monthly means in 10 years periods Table 16 Monthly means in 50 years periods Table 17 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in the years 1776-1975 Table 18 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 5 years periods Table 19 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 10 years periods Table 20 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 50 years periods Table 21 Mean daily temperature corresponding to the percent of the exceeding probability , In tschechischer, russischer und englischer Sprache

Note: Contents Table 1 Daily records Table 2 Extreme temperatures Table 3 Montly means Table 4 Mean temperature in the years 1775-1975 Table 5 Daily means of extreme temperatures Table 6 Relative frequency of daily maximum temperature in months Table 7 Relative frequency of daily minimum temperature Table 8 Relative frequency of relative humidity Table 9 Relative frequency of pressure Table 10 Relative frequency of wind Table 11 Relative frequency of cloud amount Table 12 Relative frequency of daily rainfall Table 13 Statistical characteristics of daily observations Table 14 Monthly means in 5 years periods Table 15 Monthly means in 10 years periods Table 16 Monthly means in 50 years periods Table 17 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in the years 1776-1975 Table 18 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 5 years periods Table 19 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 10 years periods Table 20 Monthly means of statistical characteristics in 50 years periods Table 21 Mean daily temperature corresponding to the percent of the exceeding probability , In tschechischer, russischer und englischer Sprache , Zum Teil in kyrillischer Schrift

Note: Contents: Preface. - 1. Overview of climate variability and climate science. - 1.1 Climate dynamics, climate change and climate prediction. - 1.2 The chemical and physical climate system. - 1.2.1 Chemical and physical aspects of the climate system. - 1.2.2 El Niño and global warming. - 1.3 Climate models: a brief overview. - 1.4 Global change in recent history. - 1.4.1 Trace gas concentrations. - 1.4.2 A word on the ozone hole. - 1.4.3 Some history of global warming studies. - 1.4.4 Global temperatures. - 1.5 El Niño: an example of natural climate variability. - 1.5.1 Some history of El Niño studies. - 1.5.2 Observations of El Niño: the 1997-98 event. - 1.5.3 The first El Niño forecast with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. - 1.6 Paleoclimate variability. - Notes. - 2. Basics of global climate. - 2.1 Components and phenomena in the climate system. - 2.1.1 Time and space scales. - 2.1.2 Interactions among scales and the parameterization problem. - 2.2 Basics of radiative forcing. - 2.2.1 Blackbody radiation. - 2.2.2 Solar energy input. - 2.3 Globally averaged energy budget: first glance. - 2.4 Gradients of radiative forcing and energy transports. - 2.5 Atmospheric circulation. - 2.5.1 Vertical structure. - 2.5.2 Latitude structure of the circulation. - 2.5.3 Latitude-Iongitude dependence of atmospheric climate features. - 2.6 Ocean circulation. - 2.6.1 Latitude-longitude dependence of oceanic climate features. - 2.6.2 The ocean vertical structure. - 2.6.3 The ocean thermohaline circulation. - 2.7 Land surface proeesses. - 2.8 The carbon cycle. - Notes. - 3. Physical processes in the climate system. - 3.1 Conservation of momentum. - 3.1.1 Coriolis force. - 3.1.2 Pressure gradient force. - 3.1.3 Velocity equations. - 3.1.4 Application: geostrophic wind. - 3.1.5 Pressure-height relation: hydrostatic balance. - 3.1.6 Application: pressure coordinates. - 3.2 Equation of state. - 3.2.1 Equation of state for the atmosphere: ideal gas law. - 3.2.2 Equation of state for the ocean. - 3.2.3 Application: atmospheric height-pressure-temperature relation. - 3.2.4 Application: thermal circulations. - 3.2.5 Application: sea level rise due to oceanic thermal expansion. - 3.3 Temperature equation. - 3.3.1 Ocean temperature equation. - 3.3.2 Temperature equation for air. - 3.3.3 Application: the dry adiabatic lapse rate near the surface. - 3.3.4 Application: decay of a sea surface temperature anomaly. - 3.3.5 Time derivative following the parcel. - 3.4 Continuity equation. - 3.4.1 Oceanic continuity equation. - 3.4.2 Atmospheric continuity equation. - 3.4.3 Application: coastal upwelling. - 3.4.4 Application: equatorial upwelling. - 3.4.5 Application: conservation of warm water mass in an idealized layer above the thermocline. - 3.5 Conservation of mass applied to moisture. - 3.5.1 Moisture equation for the atmosphere and surface. - 3.5.2 Sources and sinks of moisture, and latent heat. - 3.5.3 Application: surface melting on an ice sheet. - 3.5.4 Salinity equation for the ocean. - 3.6 Moist processes. - 3.6.1 Saturation. - 3.6.2 Saturation in convection; lifting condensation level. - 3.6.3 The moist adiabat and lapse rate in convective regions. - 3.6.4 Moist convection. - 3.7 Wave processes in the atmosphere and ocean. - 3.7.1 Gravity waves. - 3.7.2 Kelvin waves. - 3.7.3 Rossby waves. - 3.8 Overview. - Notes. - 4. El Niño and year-to-year climate prediction. - 4.1 Recap of El Niño basics. - 4.1.1 The Bjerknes hypothesis. - 4.2 Tropical Pacific climatology. - 4.3 ENSO mechanisms I: extreme phases. - 4.4 Pressure gradients in an idealized upper layer. - 4.4.1 Subsurface temperature anomalies in an idealized upper layer. - 4.5 Transition into the 1997-98 El Niño. - 4.5.1 Subsurface temperature measurements. - 4.5.2 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the onset of El Niño. - 4.5.3 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the transition to La Niña. - 4.6 El Niño mechanisms II: dynamics of transition phases. - 4.6.1 Equatorial jets and the Kelvin wave. - 4.6.2 The Kelvin wave speed. - 4.6.3 What sets the width of the Kelvin wave and equatorial jet?. - 4.6.4 Response of the ocean to a wind anomaly. - 4.6.5 The delayed oscillator model and the recharge oscillator model. - 4.6.6 ENSO transition mechanism in brief. - 4.7 El Niño prediction. - 4.7.1 Limits to skill in ENSO forecasts. - 4.8 El Niño remote impacts: teleconnections. - 4.9 Other interannual climate phenomena. - 4.9.1 Hurricane season forecasts. - 4.9.2 Sahel drought. - 4.9.3 North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes. - Notes. - 5. Climate models. - 5.1 Constructing a climate model. - 5.1.1 An atmospheric model. - 5.1.2 Treatment of sub-grid-scale processes. - 5.1.3 Resolution and computational cost. - 5.1.4 An ocean model and ocean-atmosphere coupling. - 5.1.5 Land surface, snow, ice and vegetation. - 5.1.6 Summary of principal climate model equations. - 5.1.7 Climate system modeling. - 5.2 Numerical representation of atmospheric and oceanic equations. - 5.2.1 Finite-difference versus spectral models. - 5.2.2 Time-stepping and numerical stability. - 5.2.3 Staggered grids and other grids. - 5.2.4 Parallel computer architecture. - 5.3 Parameterization of small-scale processes. - 5.3.1 Mixing and surface fluxes. - 5.3.2 Dry convection. - 5.3.3 Moist convection. - 5.3.4 Land surface processes and soil moisture. - 5.3.5 Sea ice and snow. - 5.4 The hierarchy of climate models. - 5.5 Climate simulations and climate drift. - 5.6 Evaluation of climate model simulations for present-day climate. - 5.6.1 Atmospheric model climatology from specified SST. - 5.6.2 Climate model simulation of climatology. - 5.6.3 Simulation of ENSO response. - Notes. - 6. The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks. - 6.1 The greenhouse effect in Earth's current climate. - 6.1.1 Global energy balance. - 6.1.2 A global-average energy balance model with a one-layer atmosphere. - 6.1.3 Infrared emissions from a layer. - 6.1.4 The greenhouse effect: example with a completely IR-absorbing atmosphere. - 6.1.5 The greenhouse effect in a one-layer atmosphere, global-average model. - 6.1.6 Temperatures from the one-layer energy balance model. - 6.2 Global warming I: example in the global-average energy balance model. - 6.2.1 Increases in the basic greenhouse effect. - 6.2.2 Climate feedback parameter in the one-layer global-average model. - 6.3 Climate feedbacks. - 6.3.1 Climate feedback parameter. - 6.3.2 Contributions of climate feedbacks to global-average temperature response. - 6.3.3 Climate sensitivity. - 6.4 The water vapor feedback. - 6.5 Snow/ice feedback. - 6.6 Cloud feedbacks. - 6.7 Other feedbacks in the physical climate system. - 6.7.1 Stratospheric cooling. - 6.7.2 Lapse rate feedback. - 6.8 Climate response time in transient climate change. - 6.8.1 Transient climate change versus equilibrium response experiments. - 6.8.2 A doubled-CO2 equilibrium response experiment. - 6.8.3 The role of the oceans in slowing warming. - 6.8.4 Climate sensitivity in transient climate change. - Notes. - 7. Climate model scenarios for global warming. - 7.1 Greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate forcings. - 7.1.1 Scenarios, forcings and feedbacks. - 7.1.2 Forcing by sulfate aerosols. - 7.1.3 Commonly used scenarios. - 7.2 Global-average response to greenhouse warming scenarios. - 7.3 Spatial patterns of warming for time-dependent scenarios. - 7.3.1 Comparing projections of different climate models. - 7.3.2 Multi-model ensemble averages. - 7.3.3 Polar amplification of warming. - 7.3.4 Summary of spatial patterns of the response. - 7.4 Ice, sea level, extreme events. - 7.4.1 Sea ice and snow. - 7.4.2 Land ice. - 7.4.3 Extreme events. - 7.5 Summary: the best-estimate prognosis. - 7.6 Climate change observed to date. - 7.6.1 Temperature trends and natural variability: scale dependence. - 7.6.2 Is the observed trend consistent with natural variability or anthropogenic forcing?. - 7.6.3 Sea ice, land ice, ocean heat storage and sea level rise. - 7.7 Emissions