ALBERT

Description: Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.

Description: This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Description: There is evidence that a self-sustaining ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has started, potentially leading to its disintegration. The associated sea level rise of more than 3m would pose a serious challenge to highly populated areas including metropolises such as Calcutta, Shanghai, New York City, and Tokyo. Here, we show that the WAIS may be stabilized through mass deposition in coastal regions around Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. In our numerical simulations, a minimum of 7400 Gt of additional snowfall stabilizes the flow if applied over a short period of 10 years onto the region (−2 mm year−1 sea level equivalent). Mass deposition at a lower rate increases the intervention time and the required total amount of snow. We find that the precise conditions of such an operation are crucial, and potential benefits need to be weighed against environmental hazards, future risks, and enormous technical challenges.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and by studying the impacts on global surface warming.

Description: Climate change is arguably the most severe challenge facing our planet during the 21st century. Human interference with the climate system (mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use) has increased the global and annual mean air temperature at the Earth's surface by roughly 0.8 °C since the 19th century (IPCC, 2013). The year 2014 was the hottest one on record so far (NOAA, 2015a), and at the time of writing, 2015 appears to be on track to set a new record (NOAA, 2015b). This trend of increasing temperatures will continue into the future: by 2100, the globe could warm by another 4 °C or so if emissions are not decisively reduced within the next decades (IPCC, 2013). There is broad agreement that a warming of this magnitude would have profound impacts both on the environment and on human societies (IPCC, 2014a), and that climate change mitigation via a transformation to decarbonized economies and societies has to be achieved to prevent the worst of these impacts (IPCC, 2014b). The spatial and temporal extent of the climate challenge deeply connects it to ethical questions as well. These arise both from the fact that the poorest people on Earth are not significantly contributing to global emissions, but may well feel the impacts most severely, and from the long‐term commitment to future warming and climate change impacts – like sea level or the partial melting of the large ice sheets – which will be felt by future generations. In essence, past and future greenhouse gas emissions seriously affect a large fraction of the still growing human population on our planet and profoundly shape the environment in which our children and grandchildren will have to live in. Humanity therefore has a moral obligation to address the climate challenge. This will have to combine successful negotiations on a binding and effective international climate agreement and bottom‐up initiatives from individuals or communities. There is a wide range of global threats that certainly require humanity's urgent attention (see the recent report by the World Economic Forum, 2015). These global risks include water, food and energy security, population growth, infectious diseases, and international security, for example. However, climate change is often regarded as one of the most profound global problems. This is mainly due to the sheer scale of climate change impacts – both in terms of its global and temporal spread and of the variety of sectors affected by it – that sets it apart from other planetary challenges. Indeed, recent high‐level initiatives highlight the importance of climate change, including the ground‐breaking encyclical of Pope Francis, the G7 countries' pledge to phase out fossil fuels or Barack Obama's new climate mitigation proposal. But climate change cannot be considered isolated from other challenges. Indeed, climate change is a truly cross‐cutting issue affecting many sectors and connected to other global challenges. For example, climate change has the potential to impact global water supplies, agricultural production, human health, and our energy infrastructure. In turn, the way in which we produce our energy and food has a profound effect on the Earth's climate system. Finally, the impacts of policies in one of the fields on the other challenges need to be explored if truly sustainable solutions to global problems shall be achieved. These close connections – and the societal and technical challenges of climate mitigation (IPCC 2014b) and adaptation (IPCC 2014a) – require interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary thinking; we hope that our new journal Global Challenges can serve as a highly visible forum for research bridging classical scientific disciplines, for ideas which have the potential to directly influence future climate policy and for discussions about new research and different policy options. Within the climate change focus of Global Challenges , we therefore invite submissions related to climate change of the highest quality, with a clear focus on the global view of the climate problem and with relevance for (global) climate policy or bottom‐up initiatives which are a significant step towards a solution of the climate challenge. We explicitly invite submissions connecting climate change to the other challenges covered by the journal. In addition to original research papers, we will regularly commission commentary pieces and review articles highlighting the most relevant recent developments in climate research and policy as well as the most exciting open research questions. I firmly believe that a journal like Global Challenges with its broad scope, its cross‐cutting nature, its focus on policy relevance, and its open‐access publication model is an important and innovative outlet for high‐quality research work on global problems in general. Concerning climate change in particular, I am looking forward to working with the editorial team, the staff at Wiley and the global climate science community to develop Global Challenges into one of the major journals in the field.

Description: Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%.

Description: Germany wishes to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent by 2050. However, despite the success to date, the measures which have already been planned and implemented are not sufficient for achieving this ambitious goal. In addition to the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, German industry is also responsible for releasing considerable volumes of global warming gases. In its Climate Action Plan 2050, the Federal Government has for the first time set a sector target for industry. The present acatech POSITION PAPER analyses the options for (re)utilising and storing CO2 (Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) which come into consideration for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. It is recommended that a wide-ranging public debate about the use of CCU and CCS be conducted in the near future. Only then will it be possible to take account of reservations about CCU and CCS, further develop suitable technology in good time and bring it to market maturity so that the necessary infrastructure can be planned, approved, funded and constructed.

Description: Airborne influenza virus transmission is depending on climate. Infected individuals are able to travel to any country in the world within one day. In this study we combine these two insights to investigate the influence of climate change on pandemic spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases, like influenza. Well-known recent examples for pandemics are severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2002/2003) and H1N1 (Influenza A virus subtype, 2009), which have demonstrated the vulnerability of a strongly connected world.

Description: Air pollution has large impacts on the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), affecting not just the health of people and ecosystems, but also climate, the cryosphere, monsoon patterns, water availability, agriculture, and incomes (established but incomplete). Although the available data are not comprehensive, they clearly show that the HKH receives significant amounts of air pollution from within and outside of the region, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), a region where many rural areas are severely polluted. In addition, the HKH receives transboundary pollution from other parts of Asia. This chapter surveys the evidence on regional air pollution and considers options for reducing it, while underlining the need for regional collaboration in mitigation efforts. As described in Chap. 1, the HKH region is fragile and rapidly changing; while the outcome of the interplay of complex drivers is difficult to predict, it will have major consequences. That holds true for air pollution as well.

Description: GRASP (Governance of Resources for Arctic Sustainable Policy and Practice) is an inter- and transdisciplinary research project jointly developed in 2014 by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) and the Jade University of Applied Sciences

Description: Trade is the lifeblood of the global economy, but few would consider it a social good. Instead, our views on trade have polarized between two extremes: ‘free trade’ ideologues who regard trade as an end in itself, and ‘protectionists’ who view it as a destructive force to be contained. But there is another way to trade – one with the interests of people, not profit, at its heart. In this visionary work Christian Felber, founder of the Economy for the Common Good movement, offers a dazzling new paradigm for the global trading order. Confronting the ‘free trade religion’ which has reigned since Adam Smith, Felber champions an alternative approach in which trade serves the wider interests of society, incorporating the key issues of our time: human rights, climate change, and the growing divide richer and poorer countries. He proposes the groundbreaking idea of an ‘Ethical Trade Zone’, founded on a principled approach to tariffs and trade policies, and built with international cooperation on trade, taxation and labour.

Description: The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Description: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this brief argues that Africa, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in Africa by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Description: This paper describes and quantifies three different energy policy pathways for Spain’s energy transition: government-centred, represented by the socialist party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE); market-centred, represented by the conservative party (Partido Popular, PP); and grassroots, represented by Unidas Podemos.

Description: This chapter is a joint effort by natural and legal scientists to make the case for the dramatic consequences black carbon (BC) emissions mainly from outside the Arctic region have on the Arctic ecosystem, and how BC has recently become the specific focus of a regime complex. The authors provide scientific knowledge about the sources, pathways, and climate impacts of BC emissions, and stress the special relevance of possible near-immediate climate benefits from BC emission reduction in the Arctic. Further consideration is given to the crucial importance of the governance responses to these opportunities and challenges. Thus, the second part of the chapter critically discusses the status and prospects of current multilateral BC emission reduction efforts in the context of the Arctic Council, the International Maritime Organization, and the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a fundamental component of all life on Earth. Due to the considerable increase in emissions, particularly industrial emissions, CO2has, however, become a waste product and greenhouse gas damaging to the climate and, consequently, a threat to both humanity and nature. For almost 50years, chemical research has been pursuing the idea of making the CO2 molecule useful as a raw material(Aresta and Dibenedetto 2010). Within the context of the oil crises of the 1970s, and contingent on the currentneed for climate protection, there has been a rise in global interest in the research and development oftechnologies which could make CO2 useful as a source of carbon. Several regions in Europe, but also in North America and Asia have started sponsorship programmes to support the development of such technologies (BMBF 2014, Climate-KIC 2014, U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] n.d.).The goal of these efforts is to integrate this climatedamaging gas in extremely diverse industrial productionprocesses as a raw material. The use of CO2 would not only allow for the production of useful raw materials and products, such technologies could alsoemulate a natural carbon cycle (Peters et al. 2011). At the same time, they have the potential to reduce the consumption of other fossil resources and, in so doing, they might not only contribute to the extension of the resource base, but also reduce missionswhilst providing protection for natural resources (von der Assen et al. 2013). Technological breakthroughs and advancements are currently observedin carbon capture technologies in the catalysis and transformation of CO2 (Aresta 2010, Mikkelsen et al. 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Styring et al. 2011, Wilcox 2012, Smit et al. 2014, Klankermayer and Leitner 2015), and the first innovative CO2-based productsare already coming onto the markets.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: Here we present the results of the demonstration tests that took place in Summer 2018 during the final months of the four-year Best Paths project. Details will be given on the assembly and finalizing of the demonstrator installation as well as the testing strategy defined for HVDC superconducting cables and adopted in the project. Some possibilities of installation within the electricity grids will also be discussed.

Description: Current efforts at the International Seabed Authority to develop regulations pertaining to the exploitation of deep seabed minerals would benefit from a moment of reflection on the future governance of these resources. As the Area and its resources have been declared a common heritage of mankind, this principle must be taken into account when designing the future governance of activities in the Area.

Description: The second session on integrated ocean management was kicked-off by Sebastian Unger (IASS Potsdam). In his keynote presentation he highlighted the great political moment for moving towards integrated ocean governance, which could be even further advanced through (a) innovating instruments, (b) complementary strategies at national, regional and global scale, and (c) capacity-building and sustainable finance. In particular, he argued that the regional level could act as a broker for integration, as there are well-established institutions at regional level, where agreement can be reached more easily than at global level and which allows for a meaningful implementation of the ecosystem approach. In the discussion moderation by Management Board member Gert Verreet, discussants pointed out that in Europe, many of the institutions (e.g. at sea-basin level), instruments (e.g. Marine Spatial Planning) and commitment to integrated ocean management were already in place; however, a better implementation was necessary.

Description: In order to fulfill multiple sustainable development targets, most prominently human development, poverty eradication and climate change mitigation, African countries need infrastructure that cover basic needs while at the same time promote industrialization and value creation. G20 countries can support African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) incentivizing low carbon development by phasing out subsidies and eventually putting a price on carbon and (4) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments.

Description: Sufficiency is one important strategy for sustainable development. At an individual level, we need a better understanding of the relationship between sufficiency attitude and CO2 footprint. In this paper, we analyze sufficiency as a psychological determinant of low-carbon lifestyles and introduce an empirical measurement scale for individual sufficiency attitudes. Sufficiency aims at a total reduction of resource consumption, which is urgently needed to achieve our climate and sustainable development goals. This paper explores individual attitude towards a sufficiency-oriented lifestyle as a driver of a low carbon footprint. Survey data of 310 participants was analyzed to test whether individual sufficiency attitude manifests in people’s carbon footprint. The results provide evidence for this relationship but its strength varies between behavioral domains ‐ that is, heating, electricity, food consumption, everyday mobility, air travel. Potential structural and individual barriers to reducing CO2 emissions are discussed as possible factors that could explain differences between the behavioral domains. We argue that intrapersonal factors matter for sustainable lifestyles but that policy-making and structural change should complement and facilitate voluntary endeavors to achieve low-carbon lifestyles.

Description: Various geoengineering technologies that would deliberately alter the climate system have been proposed as a way to alleviate risks of global warming. Technologies that would shield incoming sunlight to cool the planet, so called solar radiation management (SRM), are particularly controversial. Considering insights from social studies of simulation modeling and research on expectations in science and technology, I argue that climate modeling has a central role in producing visions of SRM. I draw upon an empirical analysis of scientific research on SRM to examine how a creative play with technological ideas becomes possible through climate modeling. This enables scientists to project and study environmental impacts of speculative SRM methods in virtual experiments and to develop and refine ideas for adjusting sunlight. Hence, while climate models are used to improve scientific understandings of climate system behavior and to anticipate possible environmental impacts of SRM, they also become inventive tools, allowing scientists to envision novel ways of climate control and optimization. Given the importance of simulation studies to knowledge production on SRM, I critically reflect on the challenges that arise when visions about an engineered climate future are first and foremost produced in climate simulations.

Description: New energies form new energy landscapes (Apostol, Palmer, Pasqualetti, Smardon, & Sullivan, 2016; Gailing & Leibenath, 2013). Energy carriers converge within space and open up leeway and scope for design. Different spaces are affected: offshore and onshore, plains and mountains, waters, volcanic areas, coastal regions, deserts, etc. Different energy sources and types of technology are used and integrated through grids. Grids are increasingly governed as smart energy systems equipped with smart meters and apps etc., linked with smart mobility.

Description: With our attitudes and behavior, which aim at promoting sustainable behavior, we face a temporal dilemma – a temporal conflict between short-term and long-term interests. Accordingly, psychological time is an essential variable in understanding how people decide between options of short-term self-interest, which can be experienced at present, and long-term common interest, such as sustainable development with an outcome that lies far in the future. Present feelings are often so powerful that considerations of future events are neglected. Individuals differ in their emphasis on present and future dimensions. A stronger future orientation and a mindful present orientation are positive predictors of sustainable behavior; hedonistic and impulsive present orientations are negative predictors. We discuss the concept of the balanced time perspective as the propensity to consciously switch among the time orientations of past, present, and future. Fitting with their overall psychological profile, individuals with a balanced time perspective might display a range of sustainable attitudes and behaviors.

Description: The files include results to out study investigating the possibility for renewable electricity autarky in Europe. For each administrative unit on the continental, national, regional, and municipal levels these files include: * Name, country, population, current electricity demand, land cover statistics, shared coast with exclusive economic zone * Potential in terms of area [km2], installable capacity [MW], annual electricity yield [TWh]

Description: This paper proposes “making refuge” as a conceptual placeholder and an analytical rubric, a guiding ethos and praxis, for the engaged Buddhist aspiration of responding to the social, political, economic, and planetary crises facing the world. Making refuge is conceived as the work of building the conditions of trust and safety necessary for living and dying well together as co-inhabitants of diverse communities and habitats. The paper will explain the rationale for making refuge by connecting the dharmic understanding of dukkha with feminist conceptualizations of the body and vulnerability. This will chart some theoretical and methodological pathways for engaged Buddhism to further its liberatory aspirations in reciprocity with emergent movements in radical critical theory, contemplative studies, and social and ecological activism. The paper will also examine the effects of white supremacy in U.S. Buddhism through the framework of making refuge. This will demonstrate how political healing and restorative justice might be cultivated through a dispositional ethics that pays appropriate attention to the vulnerabilities facing oppressed people.

Description: The BEST PATHS project is focused on the development and demonstration of grid equipment suitable for bulk power transmission across Europe. This work summarises the different cable conductor designs envisioned during the first 2.5 years of the superconducting demonstrator, taking benefit of the improved performance of MgB2 wires produced by Columbus Superconductors. The results of extensive validation tests carried out at CERN on two cables manufactured by Nexans are also presented.

Description: Lumbini, in southern Nepal, is a UNESCO world heritage site of universal value as the birthplace of Buddha. Poor air quality in Lumbini and surrounding regions is a great concern for public health as well as for preservation, protection and promotion of Buddhist heritage and culture. We present here results from measurements of ambient concentrations of key air pollutants (PM, BC, CO, O3) in Lumbini, first of its kind for Lumbini, conducted during an intensive measurement period of 3 months (April–June 2013) in the pre-monsoon season. The measurements were carried out as a part of the international air pollution measurement campaign; SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – Atmospheric Brown Clouds). The main objective of this work is to understand and document the level of air pollution, diurnal characteristics and influence of open burning on air quality in Lumbini. The hourly average concentrations during the entire measurement campaign ranged as follows: BC was 0.3–30.0 µg m−3, PM1 was 3.6–197.6 µg m−3, PM2. 5 was 6.1–272.2 µg m−3, PM10 was 10.5–604.0 µg m−3, O3 was 1.0–118.1 ppbv and CO was 125.0–1430.0 ppbv. These levels are comparable to other very heavily polluted sites in South Asia. Higher fraction of coarse-mode PM was found as compared to other nearby sites in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. The ΔBC ∕ ΔCO ratio obtained in Lumbini indicated considerable contributions of emissions from both residential and transportation sectors. The 24 h average PM2. 5 and PM10 concentrations exceeded the WHO guideline very frequently (94 and 85 % of the sampled period, respectively), which implies significant health risks for the residents and visitors in the region. These air pollutants exhibited clear diurnal cycles with high values in the morning and evening. During the study period, the worst air pollution episodes were mainly due to agro-residue burning and regional forest fires combined with meteorological conditions conducive of pollution transport to Lumbini. Fossil fuel combustion also contributed significantly, accounting for more than half of the ambient BC concentration according to aerosol spectral light absorption coefficients obtained in Lumbini. WRF-STEM, a regional chemical transport model, was used to simulate the meteorology and the concentrations of pollutants to understand the pollutant transport pathways. The model estimated values were ∼ 1. 5 to 5 times lower than the observed concentrations for CO and PM10, respectively. Model-simulated regionally tagged CO tracers showed that the majority of CO came from the upwind region of Ganges Valley. Model performance needs significant improvement in simulating aerosols in the region. Given the high air pollution level, there is a clear and urgent need for setting up a network of long-term air quality monitoring stations in the greater Lumbini region.

Description: Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of emitted VOCs. The box model simulations approximating stagnant conditions and the maximal ozone production chemical regime reproduced the 2 ppbv increase in ozone per degree Celsius from the observational and regional model data over central Europe. The simulated ozone–temperature relationship was more sensitive to mixing than the choice of chemical mechanism. Our analysis suggests that reductions in NOx emissions would be required to offset the additional ozone production due to an increase in temperature in the future.

Description: This study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector; this was carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS1 project with the aim of assessing the co-benefits of a low-carbon energy transition in the country. Four scenarios for the future development of the electricity sector in South Africa were analysed: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Least Cost planning scenario (CSIR_LC); Department of Environmental Affairs Rapid Decarbonisation scenario (DEA_RD); Integrated Resource Plan 2016 (IRP 2016); and Integrated Resource Plan Policy Adjusted scenario 2018 (IRP 2018).

Description: PAH concentrations were measured in total suspended particle (TSP) samples collected from six sites along two south-north transects across the central Himalayas from April 2013 to March 2014. The annual average TSP and PAH (especially 5- and 6-ring compounds) concentrations were found to decrease noticeably northwards along both transects. At rural and urban sites, the TSP and PAH concentrations showed clear seasonal variations, with the lower concentrations around the mid-monsoon season and the higher values in the winter season. Meanwhile, at the remote sites (e.g., Nyalam and Zhongba), these pollutants generally remained constant throughout the year but with relatively higher levels during the pre-monsoon season. Both IndP/(IndP + BghiP) and Fla/(Fla + Pyr) ratios suggested that atmospheric PAHs from urban and rural sites were mainly associated with emissions from biomass burning, coal burning and petroleum combustion. However, the contribution of biomass burning increased at remote sites. Similar compositions of PAHs were found at three remote sites located on both sides of the Himalayas (Jomsom, Zhongba, and Nyalam), suggesting that the northern side of the Himalayas may be affected by anthropogenic emissions from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) via long-range atmospheric transport. This work provides a database of PAHs in central Himalayas for further assessing environmental risk of air pollution in the remote regions.

Description: This policy brief makes three recommendations for strengthening international cooperation in support of a global energy transition.

Description: Known as "the Third Pole" (TP), the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains hold the largest aggregate of glaciers outside the pole regions. Recent monitoring and projection indicated an accelerated glacier decline and increasing glacier runoff. The long-range transport of South Asian atmospheric pollutants, including light absorbing impurities (LAIs) such as black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can absorb the solar radiation in the atmosphere and reduce albedo after being deposited onto the cryosphere, thereby promoting glacier and snow melt. A coordinated atmospheric pollution monitoring network has been launched covering the TP with emphasis on trans-Himalayan transects since 2013. TSP were collected for 24h at an interval of 3-6 days. BC/OC, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals were measured. Results reveal a consistent decrease in almost all analyzed parameters from south to north across the Himalayas. Geochemical signatures of carbonaceous aerosols indicate dominant sources of biomass burning and vehicle exhaust, in line with results of PAHs. Integrated analysis of satellite images and air mass trajectories suggest that the trans-boundary air pollution occurred episodically and concentrated in pre-monsoon seasons via upper air circulation, through-valley wind, and local convection. Simulation results showed that carbonaceous aerosols produced positive/negative shortwave radiative forcing in the atmosphere/ground surface. Aerosols increased surface air temperatures by 0.1-0.5℃ over the TP and decreased temperatures in South Asia during the monsoon season. Surface snow/ice samples were collected from benchmark glaciers to estimate the impacts of LAIs on glacier melt with model assistance. BC (37%) and MD (32%) contribute to the summer melting of Laohugou Glacier in the northern TP. MD (38%) contributed more glacier melt than BC (11%) on Zhadang Glacier in the southern TP. In the southeastern TP, BC and MD contribute to 30% of the total glacier melt, up to 350 mm w.e. yr-1. The monitoring network and ongoing studies point to trans-boundary pollution as an increasing stressor for the TP environment, and highlighted the link between atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes as well as other surface ecosystems over high mountain regions.

Description: The "Berlin Air quality and Ecosystem Research: Local and long-range Impact of anthropogenic and Natural hydrocarbons" (BAERLIN2014) campaign was conducted during the 3 summer months (June–August) of 2014. During this measurement campaign, both stationary and mobile measurements were undertaken to address complementary aims. This paper provides an overview of the stationary measurements and results that were focused on characterization of gaseous and particulate pollution, including source attribution, in the Berlin–Potsdam area, and quantification of the role of natural sources in determining levels of ozone and related gaseous pollutants. Results show that biogenic contributions to ozone and particulate matter are substantial. One indicator for ozone formation, the OH reactivity, showed a 31 % (0.82 ± 0.44 s−1) and 75 % (3.7 ± 0.90 s−1) contribution from biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for urban background (2.6 ± 0.68 s−1) and urban park (4.9 ± 1.0 s−1) location, respectively, emphasizing the importance of such locations as sources of biogenic NMVOCs in urban areas. A comparison to NMVOC measurements made in Berlin approximately 20 years earlier generally show lower levels today for anthropogenic NMVOCs. A substantial contribution of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol to PM10 concentrations was quantified. In addition to secondary aerosols, source apportionment analysis of the organic carbon fraction identified the contribution of biogenic (plant-based) particulate matter, as well as primary contributions from vehicles, with a larger contribution from diesel compared to gasoline vehicles, as well as a relatively small contribution from wood burning, linked to measured levoglucosan.

Description: Humans have a long history of mobility on a spectrum from voluntary migration to forced displacement in response to social, political and environmental change. While many migration drivers exist, climate change is likely to amplify the environmental drivers of migration. At least 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052 are projected if global warming continues to increase at the current rate. The associated impacts are diverse and include temperature and precipitation extremes in most inhabited regions and increased probability of drought and flood. Migration can be an important and useful adaptive response to climate impacts when it increases household resilience and reduces socio-economic vulnerabilities, and yet can also have negative health consequences. The climate–migration–health nexus entails complex interactions including the following: first, climate-related risks to health faced by migrants at all stages of the migration journey. Second, the impacts of migration itself on health with possible specific health implications of climate-related migration. This article provides a brief overview of climate-related migration, identifies climate hotspots where substantial migration and displacement are anticipated and explores the health implications of climate-related migration.

Description: This volume explores the governance of the transforming Arctic from an international perspective. Leading and emerging scholars in Arctic research investigate the international causes and consequences of contemporary Arctic developments, and assess how both state and non-state actors respond to crucial problems for the global community. Long treated as a remote and isolated region, climate change and economic prospects have put the Arctic at the forefront of political agendas from the local to the global level, and this book tackles the variety of involved actors, institutional politics, relevant policy issues, as well as political imaginaries related to a globalizing Arctic. It covers new institutional forms of various stakeholder engagement on multiple levels, governance strategies to combat climate change that affect the Arctic region sooner and more strongly than other regions, the pros and cons of Arctic resource development for the region and beyond, and local and trans-boundary pollution concerns. Given the growing relevance of the Arctic to international environmental, energy and security politics, the volume helps to explain how the region is governed in times of global nexuses, multi-level politics and multi-stakeholderism.

Description: This paper discusses proposals for tabular standards in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In particular, we focus on Keynes’ proposal for an international tabular standard (ITS) as the gold standard unravelled in the 1930s. The paper explains the origins of Keynes’ ITS proposal which pegged the value of an international reserve to a broad index of primary commodities, weighted in terms of their value in world production. We argue that the ITS should be viewed as an important and enduring component of Keynes’ ideal long-run vision for anchoring the international monetary system, even post-Bretton Woods.

Description: In four short meditations, approaches to time and the future are explored through both a time and futures lens. A compressed poetic form of expression is used to distil the essence of the processes involved. The shapes emerge in the writing and once discernable they begin to guide the choice of words. Theory becomes a playful activity that draws on a deep and extensive pool of time theory. The first meditation expresses the difficulty for conventional social science to engage with the future. The second depicts temporal relations of modernity that encompass features shared by humanity across the ages. The third piece explores time encoded in nature, money and society. The last meditation engages with approaches to sustainability and indicates the significant differences that arise with the respective standpoints of the present future and future present. It closes the circle back to the first meditation on disciplinary challenges presented by the temporal and engagement with future presents.

Description: Partnering for a Sustainable Ocean: The Role of Regional Ocean Governance in ImplementingSDG14 highlights the major role that regional ocean governance can play in theimplementation of SDG14. It assesses the mandates of different regional frameworks, showcasesexisting regional efforts contributing to the specific targets underpinning SDG14, andidentifies key contributions that regional initiatives can make to the overarching challengesof the 2030 Agenda. AcknowledgementsKey messages1. Regional cooperations are is essential for ocean sustainabilityRegional approaches to ocean governance make it possible for States and stakeholders tocooperate at an ecosystem scale and work together across sectors and national boundaries.2. Most of the SDG14 targets can be addressed through regional initiativesRegional approaches and instruments can play a key role in meeting most of the SDG14 targets,with particular relevance in the areas of marine pollution, sustainable ocean management,fisheries, conservation, and economic benefits for Small Island Developing States and LeastDeveloped Countries.3. Regional ocean governance is a driver for the development of integrated approachesRegional approaches can help advance ocean governance by bringing all relevant actorstogether, taking the interdependencies among SDG14 targets into account, and providingco-benefits for the other SDGs.4. Regional ocean governance efforts require greater support to overcome gaps and institutionalweaknesses.Regional cooperation is key to the success of SDG14 and the 2030 Agenda, and should befurther strengthened, including through capacity building and the development of regionalpartnerships.

Description: This chapter explores aspects of the relationship between the financial system and resource industries, starting with general criteria for sound investment and an overview of the various materials and resources that need to be distinguished. To this end, the focus is first placed on fossil energy commodities that do not lend themselves to management in a circular economy, before the metals and mining sector and its regulation are presented. The global transformation of energy systems presents an opportunity to phase out a non-circular industry and replace it with one that is characterised less by commodities for consumption and more by commodities for the manufacture of energy conversion equipment and durable investment goods. Combining the energy and mineral resource industries, the impact of the decline of fossil energy industries is discussed, including the implications for international trade, economic activity, public finance and the financial sector. The chapter concludes with the general argument that the financial system is affected by changes in the resource industries and their shift to a circular economy, and that it can facilitate that shift if the political, legal and regulatory framework is right. Finally, a suite of criteria for investment in support of resource sector transformation and the circular economy is proposed.

Description: This report is intended to provide a review of the relevant governance frameworks currently in place for the management of high seas biodiversity in these regions. The report uses the issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations for a new legally binding BBNJ agreement under the United Nations, as well as selected Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 targets, as a lens through which to assess progress towards conservation and sustainable use.

Description: In recent years, manifold ways to deal with the ecological crisis are subsumed under the header “transition/ transformation to sustainability” or even “Great” transformation. This chapter critically discusses the current debate from the perspective of a Polanyian understanding of a Great Transformation. The authors argue that the current debate suffers from a narrow analytical approach to transformation ignoring the dynamics of global capitalism and the power relations involved. Thus, a “new critical orthodoxy” of knowledge about transformation is emerging which runs the danger of contributing to ecologizing capitalism while ignoring the root causes of social-ecological crises. Based on Polanyi, but also on regulation theory, the authors distinguish between three types of transformation which focus either on an adaptation of the current institutional systems or on a new phase of green capitalism. Beside these two types, however, a post-capitalist Great Transformation requires more profound structural changes and exceeds the accumulation imperative as much as other structural constraints of capitalist development.

Description: The world going low carbon is believed to put an end to petrostates, and to force incumbent oil producers to diversify their economies away from fossil fuels. This article challenges this assumption. Whether petrostates are in for the long game or end up with a ‘panic and pump’ strategy, it is argued, is a function of the lifting costs and the social costs of producing oil. What is more, the low‐carbon energy transition may well throw petrostates an additional lifeline, as fast decarbonizing OECD countries will shed some of their most energy‐intensive sectors, including refineries and petrochemicals, which opens up new export opportunities. Particularly for Middle Eastern petrostates it may therefore be very rational to further specialize in the high‐carbon segment. The policy challenge, therefore, will be twofold: managing a rapidly changing energy system in order to secure the transformation dividends it will bring, for human security and economic welfare; and balancing the (geo) political after pains of the incumbent fuels leaving the system.

Description: Profound societal transformations are needed to move society from unsustainability to greater sustainability under continually changing social and environmental conditions. A key challenge is to understand the influences on and the dynamics of collective behavior change toward sustainability. In this paper we describe our approach to (1) understanding how affective narrative expressions influence transitions to more sustainable collective behaviors and (2) how that understanding, as well as the potential for using narrative expressions in modeling of social movements, can become a basis for improving community responses to change in a rapidly changing world. Our focus is on narratives that express visions of desirable futures and narratives that reflect individual and social identities, on the cultures and contexts in which they are embedded, exchanged, and modified, and through which they influence the dynamics of social movements toward sustainability. Using an analytical categorization of narrative expressions of case studies in the Caribbean, Micronesia, and Africa, we describe insights derived from the narratives of vision and social identities in diverse communities. Finally, we suggest that narrative expressions may provide a basis for agent-based modeling to expand thinking about potential development pathways of social movements for sustainable futures.

Description: Climate has for a long time been a taken-for-granted background against which social, political and economic interactions have taken place. But this taken-for-granted background is cleaving. It is becoming hard to ignore the potential repercussions of a changing climate, and the uneven impact of certain forms of human society and energy cultures that risk undermining their own environmental conditions.In a comprehensive and accessible way, this book:Drawing on the insights of various disciplines and citing numerous examples, Society and Climate probes the interplay between society, science and climate, and warns against making any easy assumptions.

Description: Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution  ∼  20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2.5 by 10–60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20 % for PM2.5 and between 10 and 25 % for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO3−, were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models' predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models' skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model–measurement comparison.

Description: The Best Paths European project investigates the feasibility of technological innovations that could advance high-capacity transmission links. These innovations include a demonstrator project dedicated to superconducting electric lines, which aims to validate the novel MgB2 technology for GW-level HVDC power transmission. This paper focuses on the research, development and design activities for the 10 kA cable conductor, which were carried out in the first two years of the project.

Description: Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) as a solar radiation management (SRM) technology may provide a cost-effective means of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change, being perhaps orders of magnitude less expensive than greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. At the same time, SAI technologies have deeply uncertain economic and environmental impacts and complex ethical, legal, political, and international relations ramifications. Robust governance strategies are needed to manage the many potential benefits, risks, and uncertainties related to SAI. This perspective reviews the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)’s guidelines for emerging risk governance (ERG) as an approach for responsible consideration of SAI, given the IRGC’s experience in governing other more conventional risks. We examine how the five steps of the IRGC’s ERG guidelines would address the complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks presented by SAI. Diverse risks are identified in Step 1, scenarios to amplify or dissipate the risks are identified in Step 2, and applicable risk management options identified in Step 3. Steps 4 and 5 involve implementation and review by risk managers within an established organization. For full adoption and promulgation of the IRGC’s ERG guidelines, an international consortium or governing body (or set of bodies) should be tasked with governance and oversight. This Perspective provides a first step at reviewing the risk governance tasks that such a body would undertake and contributes to the growing literature on best practices for SRM governance.

Description: Next week thousands of leaders and ocean experts will descend upon New York City to wrestle with an urgent problem: How can we protect the world’s oceans?

Description: The Academic Working Group (AWG) on International Governance of Climate Engineering is aninternational group of senior academics who have been assembled to formulate perspectives on theinternational governance of climate engineering research and potential deployment, with a focus on proposedsolar radiation management (SRM) technologies. The AWG was convened by the Forum for ClimateEngineering Assessment.The group has been tasked with:1. Assessing the existing SRM governance conversation;2. Identifying key debates and open questions;3. Providing a fresh, authoritative analysis of governance pathways; and4. Producing crisp, policy-relevant governance recommendations.The first meeting of the AWG took place March 6-9, 2016 at the School of International Service, AmericanUniversity in Washington, DC and was focused on providing the working group members with a high-levelintroduction to the SRM conversation. More details about the meeting can be found here.The second meeting of the AWG took place September 22-24, 2016 at the Pocantico Meeting Center of theRockefeller Brothers Fund in Tarrytown, New York. As is the case with all materials resulting from meetingsheld at The Pocantico Center, the views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the RockefellerBrothers Fund, its trustees, or its staff.The meeting was principally concerned with finalizing the organization and crafting of the high-level contentof the working group’s joint report. The following report details the main points of discussion at the secondAWG meeting. It then outlines the main outcomes from the event and indicates the groups’ next steps.

Description: The natural capital of the vast deep ocean is significant yet not well quantified. The ecosystem services provided by the deep sea provide a wide range of benefits to humanity. Proposed deep-sea economic activities such as fishing, deep-sea mining and bioprospecting therefore need to be assessed in this context. In addition to quantifying the economic benefits and costs of such activities on their own, their potential impact on the deep-sea natural capital also needs to be considered. This article describes such a natural capital approach, identifies relevant ecosystem services and looks at how a range of proposed commercial activities could be assessed in this context. It suggests a methodology for such analysis and suggests an approach to a sustainable blue deep-sea economy that is consistent with environmental precaution. It will close with suggestions of how potential risks can best be handled. The article aims to show that modern environmental economics based on natural capital can provide a useful framework for deciding future deep-sea efforts.

Description: This brief seeks to identify approaches to SSC results assessment led or supported by Governments of the South. It explores how some Southern partners are conducting initiatives to assess the results of SSC and whether and how these initiatives are affecting the way they conduct their SSC. Finally, the brief reflects upon the potential of such initiatives to foster the contribution of South-South cooperation to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development and Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Description: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this paper argues that African countries, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Description: Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar.

Description: The role of investor countries remains poorly understood in the contemporary “land grab” debate. This book provides a comparative historical-institutional and politico-economic account of “land grabbing” from a home country perspective. Specifically, the book investigates large-scale land acquisitions from two investor countries: the UK and China. The regional focus is on Sub-Saharan Africa, a major target of such land-consuming investments since 2000. The assessment provides an empirical-analytical account of 40 Chinese and British “land grab” projects that occurred during 2000-2015. It also reviews the specific details of the home country’s industrial set-up, development challenges, ideological framing, political economy, and significant events critical to understanding what is happening. The book advances three arguments: Firstly, it shows that Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) mentioned in the “land grab” literature reflects the demands of the country’s resource-intensive and market-dependent manufacturing industry, and is part of economic upgrading. In the case of the UK, large-scale land acquisitions occur in response to reforms in the host countries, to international and domestic energy and climate policies, and to reindustrialization efforts. Secondly, the comparative analysis reveals that in spite of their politico-economic differences, both countries share many similarities, such as the multiplicity of agencies, structures, and events involved, the guiding ideology in place, and the institutional framework supporting such OFDI projects. Notably, both countries’ governments consider outward foreign direct investments (of which “land grabs” form a part) as a strategic instrument to pursue particular national development ambitions. These projects allegedly “push the limits” of profitable business and/or social mobility in an increasingly globalized economy, and serve as a tool to “fight the limits” of national development trajectories that cannot provide sufficient (and good) jobs, erode the national resource base, and are strongly vulnerable in their reliance on export markets. Thirdly, the book reviews the main features of late 19th century colonial and imperial practices, to be aware of important factors and dynamics in the evaluation of contemporary land acquisitions.

Description: A major hurdle for implementing CCU technologies is often their economic viability as well as the social acceptance for using such technologies. Therefore, assessments regarding the economic and social impacts of CCU technologies are needed. Being among the biggest emitters of anthropogenic CO2, the cement industry requires affordable pathways towards a sustainable future. CCU technologies could potentially contribute to this direction. A technological concept developed in this field is the so called "accelerated carbonation" process. Hereby, CO2 is reacted with activated minerals to form carbonates. The carbonates could potentially be used for multiple purposes, such as fillers or cement additives or for land reclamation projects. Some policy advice reports use the accelerated carbonation process as a positive example for the utilization of CO2 as a feedstock, because unlike most other CCU concepts, the carbonation reaction is energetically favorable. Although the concept is not new, the accelerated carbonation routes lack detailed and comparable economic assessments in literature. In this contribution, economic assessments of several carbonation routes will be presented, uncovering the advantages of certain routes towards an economically viable implementation. Moreover, the evaluation of the circumstances under which these novel technologies become economically feasible as well as the analysis of key factors which can be influenced in order to promote economic feasibility will be investigated. Understanding the economics of accelerated carbonation routes is essential for their further development and deployment in the context of broader sustainability strategies.

Description: This handbook offers the first comprehensive, state-of-the-field guide to past weather and climate and their role in human societies. Bringing together dozens of international specialists from the sciences and humanities, this volume describes the methods, sources, and major findings of historical climate reconstruction and impact research. Its chapters take the reader through each key source of past climate and weather information and each technique of analysis; through each historical period and region of the world; through the major topics of climate and history and core case studies; and finally through the history of climate ideas and science. Using clear, non-technical language, The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History serves as a textbook for students, a reference guide for specialists and an introduction to climate history for scholars and interested readers.

Description: Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering – proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo – there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar geoengineered climate and identify major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can build upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges and risks presented by solar geoengineering.

Description: In a monetary economy of production, Say’s law is not verified for many reasons. On the basis of these refutations, it is possible to state that the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process is structurally lower than the value of production. We study here the dynamics of such an economy and obtain two main results. First, the long-term debt of this economy has to increase along a growth phase to enable demand to grow at the same pace as supply. Secondly, due to the repayment of this debt, the gap between supply and the demand issued from the revenues generated by the production process widens along a growth phase.

Description: Decision-support tools are increasingly popular for informing policy decisions linked to environmental issues. For example, a number of decision-support tools on transport planning provide information on expected effects of different measures (actions, policies, or interventions) on air quality, often combined with information on noise pollution or mitigation costs. These tools range in complexity and scale of applicability, from city to international, and include one or several polluting sectors. However, evaluation of the need and utility of tools to support decisions on such linked issues is often lacking, especially for tools intended to support local authorities at the city scale. Here we assessed the need for and value of combining air pollution and climate change mitigation measures into one decision-support tool and the existing policy context in which such a tool might be used. We developed a prototype decision-support tool for evaluating measures for coordinated management of air quality and climate change; and administered a survey in which respondents used the prototype to answer questions about demand for such tools and requirements to make them useful. Additionally, the survey asked questions about participants’ awareness of linkages between air pollution and climate change that are crucial for considering synergies and trade-offs among mitigation measures. Participants showed a high understanding of the linkages between air pollution and climate change, especially recognizing that emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants come from the same source. Survey participants were: European, predominantly German; employed across a range of governmental, non-governmental and research organizations; and responsible for a diversity of issues, primarily involving climate change, air pollution or environment. Survey results showed a lack of awareness of decision-support tools and little implementation or regular use. However, respondents expressed a general need for such tools while also recognizing barriers to their implementation, such as limited legal support or lack of time, finances, or manpower. The main barrier identified through this study is the mismatch between detailed information needed from such tools to make them useful at the local implementation scale and the coarser scale information readily available for developing such tools. Significant research efforts at the local scale would be needed to populate decision-support tools with salient mitigation alternatives at the location of implementation. Although global- or regional-scale information can motivate local action towards sustainability, effective on-the-ground implementation of coordinated measures requires knowledge of local circumstances and impacts, calling for active engagement of the local research communities.

Description: Turkey’s energy policy focuses on the promotion of coal and nuclear power. Althoughsustainable energy legislation is in place and respective targets have been defined,implementation is lagging behind and sustainable energy takes a back seat in thecountry’s political debate. Internationally, Turkey is concerned with regional (energy)geopolitics much more than with sustainability. In G20 negotiations on sustainableenergy, Turkey might emerge as a laggard, particularly in matters related to the reductionof coal use.

Description: A comprehensive overview is provided evaluating direct real-world CO2 emissions of both diesel and petrol cars newly registered in Europe between 1995 and 2015. Before 2011, European diesel cars emitted less CO2 per kilometre than petrol cars, but since then there is no appreciable difference in per-km CO2 emissions between diesel and petrol cars. Real-world CO2 emissions of diesel cars have not declined appreciably since 2001, while the CO2 emissions of petrol cars have been stagnant since 2012. When adding black carbon related CO2-equivalents, such as from diesel cars without particulate filters, diesel cars were discovered to have had much higher climate relevant emissions until the year 2001 when compared to petrol cars. From 2001 to 2015 CO2-equivalent emissions from new diesel cars and petrol cars were hardly distinguishable. Lifetime use phase CO2-equivalent emissions of all European passenger vehicles were modelled for 1995–2015 based on three scenarios: the historic case, another scenario freezing percentages of diesel cars at the low levels from the early 1990s (thus avoiding the observed “boom” in new diesel registrations), and an advanced mitigation scenario based on high proportions of petrol hybrid cars and cars burning gaseous fuels. The difference in CO2-equivalent emissions between the historical case and the scenario avoiding the diesel car boom is only 0.3%. The advanced mitigation scenario would have been able to achieve a 3.4% reduction in total CO2-equivalent emissions over the same time frame. The European diesel car boom appears to have been ineffective at reducing climate-warming emissions from the European transport sector.

Description: Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC) on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of  〈  2.5 µm) and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600 ppm result in  ∼  3600 [95 % CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb) of non-CO2 aviation emissions as −13.3 mW m−2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect) and tropospheric ozone.Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC  =  15 ppm) has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by  ∼  620 [95 % CI: 230–1020] mortalities a−1 and increase REcomb by +7.0 mW m−2.We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000 ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE). We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud condensation nuclei, reducing the aviation-induced CAE by a factor of 10. Applying high FSCs at aviation cruise altitudes combined with ULSJ fuel at lower altitudes results in reduced aviation-induced mortality and increased negative RE compared to the baseline aviation scenario.

Description: The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and is home to numerous small islands. Many of these have already vanished, and those remaining are continuing to lose ground. Over a few decades several of these small places were abandoned as the waters started to roll over the lands around the mid-nineteenth century. Houses were torn down, while some people moved within or to other islands and others migrated to solid ground when other measures failed to secure the small islands. Some people left earlier than others, but there were moments when it became difficult to retain the society of the islands. By telling the story of the Chesapeake Islands, this paper outlines the reactions of individuals and society to changes in their living environment. The aim of the article is thereby to explore the variables influencing human thresholds to migration in times of changing environments. Societal factors, as well as natural stimuli, are explored that led to migration at a certain time and place. By drawing attention to the sinking islands in the Chesapeake, I advocate the consideration of examples from the Western Hemisphere in debates on island loss and migration.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: In search for sustainability of the oceans, the concept of resilience arises as a necessary perspective from which to analyse what course of action to take. Resilience refers to the capacity of a system to absorb change, but also to adapt and develop in face of those changes. Resilience thinking has recently permeated the sphere of legal studies, and the two fields have been interested in exploring the impact they have on one another. To explore this interaction further in the context of the management of the oceans, the present paper looks at areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) as a socio-ecological system. It argues that the law can be a tool for improving the resilience of a system, but that it must, for that purpose, be able to ensure at least some adaptive capacity. In light of the upcoming, consolidated regime for the sustainable management of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) through the development of an internationally legally binding agreement on the topic, and considering the uncertainty surrounding our knowledge of ABNJ, this paper suggests to look at the BBNJ agreement from the perspective of resilience thinking. The paper explores how this perspective could bring new insights to the development of the BBNJ agreement, as well as the emerging literature linking law and resilience.