ALBERT

Note: CONTENTS: Flight plan 1996. - C130 schedule. - NGRIP 1996 Schedule. - Overview of 1996 schedule. - Camp Layout. - Buildings. - Number of field participants. - NGRIP 1996 Sub programs. - CARDS Radar test. - KMS Elevation measurements. - SITREP. - Terms of Reference during the field operation. - Accidents and Illness. - Mail to NGRIP participants. - Cargo shipments to Greenland. - Personnel transport 1996. - Booze and drugs. - Vacation in Greenland. - Shipping boxes. - Welcome to the NGRIP camp. - List of participants. - NGRIP camp load. - Kangerlussuaq and Surrounding Area. - Thule Air Base, Greenland, Base Operations. - Other useful information for Thule passengers. - Uplift 1996. - Typical specs for LC-130 and Twin Otter. - Useful data. - Coordination of C-130 in Kangerlussuaq. - Aviation weather reports. - Typical communication plan. - Summary of frequencies used in Greenland. - Phonetic alphabet. - Personal field equipment. - Map of GRIP camp. - NGRIP, Maps of one and two line set up. - NGRIP trenches. - Map of Greenland. - Map of north Greenland. - Map of ice divide north of GRIP. - Map of magnetic declination in Greenland. - Positions in Greenland. - Relevant distances and directions. - 1996 Twin Otter hours. - List of NGRIP addresses.

Note: CONTENTS Preface Introduction Sorption and desorption of organic contaminants Decontamination methods Aqueous cleaning methods Cleaning or rinsing with organic solvents Chemical neutralization methods Current protocols to decontaminate groundwater sampling devices Variations in methodology Special instructions for cleaning pumps Effectiveness of various decontamination methods Low-temperature considerations Conclusions Literature cited

Note: CONTENTS Page Preface Introduction Elastomers and sealant formulations Mechanical behavior of sealants Phenomenological behavior of rubbers and elastomers Hyperelastic constitutive model Examples of sealant behavior Mechanical response of seals Basic structural geometry and loading configurations of seals Conventional performance testing for studying the load and deformation response of joint and crack seals Response of seals to joint movements Summary and recommendations Literature cited Abstract

Note: CONTENTS Page Preface Nomenclature Introduction Experimental procedure Results and analysis Leading tire resistance Trailing tire resistance Deep snow Undercarriage drag Multiple passes Shallow snow resistance model Summary Literature cited Appendix A: Snow data Appendix B: Observations of snow deformation by a wheel Appendix C: Wheeled vehicle motion resistance data Abstract

Note: CONTENTS Page Preface Nomenclature Introduction Background Shallow snow Undisturbed snow on a firm substrate Undisturbed snow on a soft substrate Undisturbed snow over ice Disturbed, processed and packed snow Deep snow Ice Freezing or thawing ground conditions Bearing capacity of freezing ground Effect of thawing conditions on vehicle performance Speed made good Internal motion resistance Slopes Summary and recornmendations Literature cited Appendix A: Cold Regions Mobility Model CRM-1.F Appendix B: FORTRAN code using NRMM/CAMMS variables and format Appendix C: Traction coefficients on packed snow Appendix D: NRMM checkout data Abstract

Note: Masterarbeit, University of Waterloo, 1995 , TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE AUTHOR'S DECLARATION BORROWER'S PAGE ABSTRACT ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS DEDICATION LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF PLATES CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.2 PURPOSE 1.3 OBJECTIVES CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 INTRODUCTION 2.2 THERMAL REGIME 2.3 INHERENT PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS 2.4 HYDROLOGICAL REGIME 2.5 INTEGRATED STUDIES 2.6 SUMMARY CHAPTER 3 STUDY SITE LOCATION 3.1 INTRODUCTION 3.2 REGIONAL CLIMATE 3.3 GEOLOGY 3.4 VEGETATION 3.5 COLOUR LAKE BASIN CHAPTER4 INHERENT PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ACTIVE LAYER 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.2 METHODS 4.3 RESULTS 4.4 DISCUSSION 4.4.1 SS, EIF and GC Transects 4.4.2 Permafrost Transects 4.5 SUMMARY CHAPTER 5 THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ACTIVE LAYER 5.1 lNTRODUCTION 5.2 THEORY 5.2.1 Energy Balance 5.2.2 Active Layer Development 5.3 METHODS 5.3.1 Energy Balance 5.3.2 Ground Thermal Regime 5.3.3 Predicting of Active Layer Depths 5.4 RESULTS 5.4.1 Energy Balance 5.4.2 Ground Thermal Regime 5.4.3 Predicting Active Layer Depths 5.5 DISCUSSION 5.S.1 Energy Balance 5.5.2 Ground Temperatures and Ground Heat Flux 5.5.3 Predicting Active Layer Depths 5.6 SUMMARY CHAPTER 6 HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ACTIVE LAYER 6.1 INTRODUCTION 6.2 THEORY 6.2.1 Moisture Distribution 6.2.2 Maximum Storage within the Active Layer 6.3 METHODS 6.3.1 Moisture Profiles Using TDR 6.3.2 Precipitation and Evaporation 6.3.3 Changes in Water Storage in the Active Layer 6.3.4 Maximum Water Storage in the Active Layer 6.4 RESULTS 6.4.1 Moisture Distribution 6.4.1.1 Water Content Peaks 6.4.1.2 Apparent Unfrozen Water Content 6.4.1.3 Temporal Trends of a Typical Moisture Profile 6.4.1.4 Deviations from a Typical Site 6.4.1.5 Moisture Distribution Along a Hillslope 6.4.2 Precipitation Infiltration 6.4.3. Water Storage 6.5 DISCUSSION 6.5.1 Effect of Hydrology on Active Layer Development 6.5.1.1 Precipitation 6.5.1.2 Ice and Water Content 6.5.1.3 Seasonal Changes in Soil Moisture Distribution 6.5.2 Effect of Active Layer on Hydrology 6.5.2. 1 Impermeable Boundary 6.5.2.2 Subsurface Ponding 6.5.2.3 Permafrost/Active Layer Boundary Topography 6.5.2.4 Effect of Active Layer Hydrology on Surface Water 6.6 SUMMARY CHAPTER 7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ACTIVE LAYER DEVELOPMENT 7.1 INTRODUCTION 7.2 SUMMARY 7.3 CLIMATE CHANGE 7.3.1 Introduction 7.3.2 Increase of Temperature 7.3.3 Changing Precipitation 7.4 REMOTE SENSING 7.5 RECOMMENDATION FOR FuRTHER RESEARCH APPENDIX A PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS APPENDIX A.1: ACTIVE LAYER DEPTHS APPENDIX B THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS APPENDIX B.1: BASE CAMP METEOROLOGICAL STATION OBSERVATIONS APPENDIX B.2: DAILY ENERGY-BALANCE SUMMARY APPENDIX B.3: MONTHLY AVERAGES FROM THE DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE METEOROLOGICAL STATION APPENDIX B.4: EXAMPLE OF DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY BALANCE COMPONENTS APPENDIX B.5: SOIL TEMPERATURES AT THE INTENSIVE STUDY SITES APPENDIX B.6: ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE DAYS APPENDIX B.7: CURVE FOR FENWALL THERMISTORS APPENDIX B.8: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN √ADDT AND √TT APPENDIX C HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS APPENDIX C.1: VOLUMETRIC WATER CONTENT VALUES APPENDIX C.2: POTENTIAL INFILTRATION REFERENCES , Englisch

Note: CONTENTS: Flight plan 1996. - C130 schedule. - NGRIP 1996 Schedule. - Overview of 1996 schedule. - Camp Layout. - Buildings. - Number of field participants. - NGRIP 1996 Sub programs. - CARDS Radar test. - KMS Elevation measurements. - SITREP. - Terms of Reference during the field operation. - Accidents and Illness. - Mail to NGRIP participants. - Cargo shipments to Greenland. - Personnel transport 1996. - Booze and drugs. - Vacation in Greenland. - Shipping boxes. - Welcome to the NGRIP camp. - List of participants. - NGRIP camp load. - Kangerlussuaq and Surrounding Area. - Thule Air Base, Greenland, Base Operations. - Other useful information for Thule passengers. - Uplift 1996. - Typical specs for LC-130 and Twin Otter. - Useful data. - Coordination of C-130 in Kangerlussuaq. - Aviation weather reports. - Typical communication plan. - Summary of frequencies used in Greenland. - Phonetic alphabet. - Personal field equipment. - Map of GRIP camp. - NGRIP, Maps of one and two line set up. - NGRIP trenches. - Map of Greenland. - Map of north Greenland. - Map of ice divide north of GRIP. - Map of magnetic declination in Greenland. - Positions in Greenland. - Relevant distances and directions. - 1996 Twin Otter hours. - List of NGRIP addresses.

Note: N.F. entfällt ab 57.2000. - Volltext auch als Teil einer Datenbank verfügbar , Ersch. ab 2000 in engl. Sprache mit dt. Hauptsacht.

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components

Note: Contents: Abstract. - Acknowledgements. - Introduction: Environmental change, paleolimnology, and diatoms. - Chapter 1: Diatoms as indicators of salinity and brine composition. - Chapter 2: Diatoms as indicators of lake trophic status. - References. - Plates. - Appendices. - Species Index.

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components 15.3.4

Note: Dissertation, Hokkaido University, 1995 , Contents 1. Introduction 2. Global methane budget 2－1. Atmospheric methane concentration 2－2. Greenhouse effect of methane 2－3. Methane budget 2－3－1. Sources 2－3－2. Sinks 2-4．Methane emission from wetlands 24－1. Methanogenic bacteria 24－2. Controlling factors affecting microbial production of methane 24－3. Transport processes to the atmosphere 3. Physical and biological environments of eastern Siberia 3－1. Climate and Permafrost distribution 3－2. Tundra wetland 3－3. Alass in taiga region 4. Methane flux measurements 4－1. lntroduction 4－2. Method of field observation 4－2－1. Methane flux measurements 4－2－2. Other measurements 4－3. Results of the measurements at the tundra wetlands 4－3－1. Bykovsky Peninsula and Kalakliari lsland, Siberia 4－3－2. Mustakh Island, Siberia 4－3－3. Fairbanks, Alaska 4－4. Results of the measurements at alasses in taiga region 4－5. Summary and comparison with previous studies 5. Estimation of annual methane emission from tundra wetlands 5－1 Introduction 5－2. Relationship between methane emission and active layer conditions 5－3. Estimation of ground temperature profile and active layer thickness 5－3－1. One-dmensional thermal conduction model 5－3－2. Simulation of ground temperature profile at Kalakhari Island 5－4. Estimation of annual methane emission from Siberian tundra wetlands 5－5. Comparison with previous works 6. Estimation of methane emission change induced by a climate change 6－1. Prediction of future climatic warming 6－2. Evaluation of change of methane emission caused by a climatic warming 6－2－1. Equilibrium climatic change 6－2－2. Time-dependent climatic change 7. Conclusions Acknowledgnents References

Note: Zugl.: Bremen, Univ., Habil., 1993

Note: Contents Acknowledgements Editor's Preface Translator's Preface Preface to Volume I of the Russian edition, Polypodiaceae-Butomaceae Preface to Volume II of the Russian edition, Gramineae Abbreviations Used in Citing Floristic and Systematic Literature FAMILY I / Polypodiaceae—True Ferns GENUS 1 / Woodsia—Woodsia GENUS 2 / Cystopteris—Bladder Fern GENUS 3 / Dryopteris—Shield Fern GENUS 4 / Thelypteris—Thelypteris GENUS 5 / Gymnocarpium—Oak Fern GENUS 6 / Polystichum—Holly Fern GENUS 7 / Athyrium—Lady Fern GENUS 8 / Asplenium—Spleenwort GENUS 9 / Cryptogramma—Rock Brake GENUS 10 / Polypodium—Polypody FAMILY II / Ophioglossaceae—Adder's Tongue Family GENUS L / Botrychium—Moonwort FAMILY III / Equisetaceae—Horsetails GENUS 1 / Equisetum—Horsetail FAMILY IV / Lycopodiaceae—Club-Mosses GENUS 1 / Lycopodium—Club-Moss FAMILY V / Selaginellaceae—Selaginella Family GENUS 1 / Selaginella—Selaginella, Little Club-Moss FAMILY VI / Pinaceae—Pine Family GENUS IA / Abies—Fir GENUS 1 / Picea—Spruce GENUS 2 / Larix—Larch GENUS 3 / Pinus—Pine FAMILY VII / Cupressaceae—Cypress Family GENUS 1 / Juniperus—Juniper FAMILY VIII / Sparganiaceae—Bur-Reed Family GENUS 1 / Sparganium—Bur-Reed FAMILY IX / Potamogetonaceae—Pondweed Family GENUS 1 / Potamogeton—Pondweed GENUS 2 / Zostera—Eel-Grass FAMILY X / Juncaginaceae—Arrow-Grass Family GENUS 1 / Triglochin—Arrow Grass GENUS 2 / Scheuchzeria—Scheuchzeria FAMILY XI / Alismataceae—Water-Plantain Family GENUS 1 / Alisma—Water-Plantain FAMILY XII / Butomaceae—Flowering Rush Family GENUS 1 / Butomus—Flowering Rush FAMILY XIII / Gramineae—Grasses GENUS 1 / Typhoides—Reed Canary Grass GENUS 2 / Anthoxanthum—Vernal-Grass GENUS 3 / Hierochloe—Sweet Grass GENUS 4 / Milium—Wood Millet GENUS 5 / Phleum—Timothy GENUS 6 / Alopecurus—Foxtail GENUS 7 / Arctagrostis—Arctagrostis GENUS 8 / Agrostis—Bent GENUS 9 / Calamagrostis—Reed Grass GENUS 10 / Apera—Silky Bent GENUS 11 / Vahlodea—Vahlodea GENUS 12 / Deschampsia—Hair Grass GENUS 13 / Trisetum—Trisetum GENUS 14 / Helictotrichon—Oat Grass GENUS 15 I Beckmannia—Slough Grass GENUS 16 / Phragmites—Reed GENUS 17 / Molinia—Moor Grass GENUS 18 / Koeleria—June Grass GENUS 19 / Melica—Melic GENUS 20 / Pleuropogon—Semaphore Grass GENUS 21 / Dactylis—Cocksfoot GENUS 22 / Poa—Bluegrass GENUS 23 / Dupontia—Dupontia GENUS 24 / Arctophila—Arctophila GENUS 25 / Colpodium—Colpodium GENUS 26 / Catabrosa—Brook Grass GENUS 27 / Phippsia—Phippsia GENUS 27A / Glyceria—Manna Grass GENUS 28 / Puccinellia—Alkali Grass GENUS 29 / Festuca—Fescue GENUS 30 / Zerna—Perennial Brome Grass GENUS 31 / Bromus—Brome Grass GENUS 32 / Nardus—Matgrass GENUS 33 / Roegneria—Rhizomeless WheatGrass GENUS 34 / Elytrigia—WheatGrass GENUS 35 / Leymus—Wild Rye GENUS 36 / Hordeum—Barley APPENDIX I I Summary of Data on the Geographical Distribution of Vascular Plants of the Soviet Arctic TABLE 1 / Distribution of Vascular Plants of the Soviet Arctic, Polypodiaceae-Butomaceae TABLE 2 / Distribution of Vascular Plants of the Soviet Arctic, Gramineae Index of Plant Names

Note: R. C. Preece: Introduction - Island Britain: a Quaternary perspective / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:1-2, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.01 --- Brian M. Funnell: Global sea-level and the (pen-)insularity of late Cenozoic Britain / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:3-13, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.02 --- P. L. Gibbard: The formation of the Strait of Dover / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:15-26, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.03 --- D. R. Bridgland and B. D’Olier: The Pleistocene evolution of the Thames and Rhine drainage systems in the southern North Sea Basin / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:27-45, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.04 --- Andrew G. Bellamy: Extension of the British landmass: evidence from shelf sediment bodies in the English Channel / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:47-62, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.05 --- D. H. Keen: Raised beaches and sea-levels in the English Channel in the Middle and Late Pleistocene: problems of interpretation and implications for the isolation of the British Isles / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:63-74, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.06 --- J. D. Scourse and R. M. Austin: Palaeotidal modelling of continental shelves: marine implications of a land-bridge in the Strait of Dover during the Holocene and Middle Pleistocene / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:75-88, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.07 --- T. Meijer and R. C. Preece: Malacological evidence relating to the insularity of the British Isles during the Quaternary / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:89-110, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.08 --- A. J. Stuart: Insularity and Quaternary vertebrate faunas in Britain and Ireland / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:111-125, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.09 --- Antony J. Sutcliffe: Insularity of the British Isles 250 000–30 000 years ago: the mammalian, including human, evidence / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:127-140, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.10 --- Alan Turner: Evidence for Pleistocene contact between the British Isles and the European Continent based on distributions of larger carnivores / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:141-149, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.11 --- Adrian M. Lister: Sea-levels and the evolution of island endemics: the dwarf red deer of Jersey / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:151-172, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.12 --- K. D. Bennett: Insularity and the Quaternary tree and shrub flora of the British Isles / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:173-180, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.13 --- Robert J. N. Devoy: Deglaciation, Earth crustal behaviour and sea-level changes in the determination of insularity: a perspective from Ireland / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:181-208, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.14 --- Robin T. R. Wingfield: A model of sea-levels in the Irish and Celtic seas during the end-Pleistocene to Holocene transition / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:209-242, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.15 --- P. Coxon and S. Waldren: The floristic record of Ireland’s Pleistocene temperate stages / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 96:243-267, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.096.01.16

Note: CONTENTS: Preface. - Glossary of some Mongolian words. - Spelling. - 1. A brief history of botanical research in Mongolia. - 2. Introduction to the country. - 2.1 Geographical position and administrative division. - 2.2 Topography. - 2.3 Hydrography. - 2.4 Climate. - 2.5 Vegetation zones of Mongolia. - 3. Methods of vegetation analysis. - 4. The plant communities of Mongolia. - 4.1 Needle-leaved forest. - 4.2 Broad-leaved forest. - 4.3 Shrubbery. - 4.4 Tall-forb vegetation. - 4.5 Steppe. - 4.6 Vegetation of rocky and stony sites. - 4.7 Semi-desert vegetation. - 4.8 Desert vegetation. - 4.9 Alpine vegetation. - 4.10 Aquatic vegetation. - 4.11 Marshland vegetation. - 4.12 Montane seep water and stream vegetation. - 4.13 Isoeto-Nanojuncetea. - 4.14 Bidentetea. - 4.15 Hatophytic vegetation. - 4.16 Meadow and pasture. - 4.17 Arable fields. - 4.18 Ruderal vegetation. - 5. Human impact on plant communities. - 6. Vegetation profiles of some selected geographical areas. - 7. Future research on the vegetation of Mongolia. - 8. References. - 9. Index.

Note: Chapter 1. Structural Relaxation and the Glass Transition by Cornelius T. Moynihan, p. 1 - 20 Chapter 2. Relaxation in Silicate Melts: Some Applications by Donald B. Dingwell, p. 21 - 66 Chapter 3. Rheology and Configurational Entropy of Silicate Melts by P. Richet & Y. Bottinga, p. 67 - 94 Chapter 4. Viscoelasticity by Sharon L. Webb and Donald B. Dingwell, p. 95 - 120 Chapter 5. Energetics of Silicate Melts by Alexandra Navrotsky, p. 121 - 144 Chapter 6. Thermodynamic Mixing Properties and the Structure of Silicate Melts by Paul C. Hess, p. 145 - 190 Chapter 7. Dynamics and Structure of Silicate and Oxide Melts: Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Studies by Jonathan F. Stebbins, p. 191 - 246 Chapter 8. Vibrational Spectroscopy of Silicate Liquids by Paul F. McMillan and George H. Wolf, p. 247 - 316 Chapter 9. X-ray Scattering and X-ray Spectroscopy Studies of Silicate Melts by Gordon E. Brown, Jr., François Farges, and G. Calas, p. 317 - 410 Chapter 10. Diffusion in Silicate Melts by Sumit Chakraborty, p. 411 - 504 Chapter 11. Pressure Effects on Silicate Melt Structure and Properties by G. H. Wolf and Paul F. McMillan, p. 505 - 562 Chapter 12. Computer Simulations of Silicate Melts by Peter H. Poole, Paul F. McMillan, and George H. Wolf, p. 563 - 616

Note: Mohammed S. Ameen: Fractography: fracture topography as a tool in fracture mechanics and stress analysis. An introduction / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:1-10, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.01 --- Part 1: Fractographic Studies --- Methods of Observation, Data Collection and Processing/Quantitative Fractography --- Ömer Aydan and Yasuhiro Shimizu: Surface morphology characteristics of rock discontinuities with particular reference to their genesis / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:11-26, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.02 --- Mark W. Jessell, Simon J. D. Cox, Phillip Schwarze, and William L. Power: The anisotropy of surface roughness measured using a digital photogrammetric technique / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:27-37, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.03 --- Application of Fractography to Fracture Analysis from Core --- P. Bankwitz and E. Bankwitz: Fractographic features on joints of KTB drill cores (Bavaria, Germany) / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:39-58, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.04 --- Fractography Applied to the Analysis of Experimentally Produced Fractures in Rocks and Non-Rocks --- B. R. Kulander and Stuart L. Dean: Observations on fractography with laboratory experiments for geologists / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:59-82, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.05 --- C. Butenuth and M. H. de Freitas: The character of rock surfaces formed in Mode I / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:83-96, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.06 --- Fractography Applied to Fracture Analysis in Field Studies Aimed at Understanding Regional Tectonics --- Mohammed S. Ameen: Fractography and fracture characterization in the Permo-Triassic sandstones and the Lower Palaeozoic Basement, West Cumbria, UK / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:97-147, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.07 --- Mohammed S. Ameen: Fracture characterization in the Chalk and the evolution of the Thanet monocline, Kent, southern England / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:149-174, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.08 --- John C. Roberts: Fracture surface markings in Liassic limestone at Lavernock Point, South Wales / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:175-186, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.09 --- Part 2: Non-Fractographic Studies --- Miscellaneous Studies of Fractures --- J. W. Cosgrove: The expression of hydraulic fracturing in rocks and sediments / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:187-196, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.10 --- A. M. Goodwin: Spatial change in joint geometry in the Chalk of eastern England / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:197-213, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.11 --- Michael R. Gross, Mark P. Fischer, Terry Engelder, and Roy J. Greenfield: Factors controlling joint spacing in interbedded sedimentary rocks: integrating numerical models with field observations from the Monterey Formation, USA / Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 92:215-233, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.092.01.12