ALBERT

Note: Erscheinungsjahr in Vorlageform:1995

Note: CONTENTS COMPOSITION OF THE OFFICE CONTENTS INTRODUCTION I. THE POLAR REGIONS: AN URGENT NEED FOR PROTECTION A. EXTREME BUT FRAGILE REGIONS 1. The Arctic Ocean 2. Antarctica B. FRANCE'S RESPONSIBILITY IN THE ANTARCTICA TREATY 1. The origins of the treaty and the Antarctic system 2. Mining a suspended issue 3. Tourism: a new peaceful threat? II. THE POLES: THEIR KEY ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE A. UNDERSTANDING PAST CLIMATES TO UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE CLIMATE 1. Recent ice cores from Greenland 2. lce cores from Antarctica 3. Ocean core samples: the transpolar link 4. The future of glacial core sampling B. THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION 1. The general circulation system 2. The importance of the creation of cold, deep waters 3. The Antarctic Ocean, a carbon sink C. THE POLAR REGIONS AT THE HEART OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 1. Will the Arctic ice shelf disappear in the summer? 2. Will Greenland melt completely? 3. Can a diagnosis be made concerning the assessment of Antarctica's mass? III. FRANCE'S FIRST-CLASS BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH A. AN EXCEPTIONAL HERITAGE 1. A unique geographic situation 2. 40 to 50 years of continuous observations B. ADAPTING TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS 1. Adapting to climate change 2. Understanding the adaptation to extreme environments C. INNOVATIVE RESEARCH 1. The equipment of animals 2. Hormonal, molecular and genetic research 3. The implications for the organization of research IV. OBSERVING THE EARTH, OBSERVING THE UNIVERSE A. OBSERVATORIES FOR THE EARTH AND THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 1. Seismology 2. Measuring gravity and terrestrial magnetism 3. Studying the stratosphere and monitoring the ozone layer '1. Observing the ionosphere B. ANTARCTIC ASTRONOMY: A NEW FIELD 1. Recognizing this fast-growing discipline 2. Concordia: the best site in the world/or astronomic observations? 3. Searching for meteorites in Antarctica 4. Measuring cosmic radiation V. PREPARING THE SPACE MISSIONS IN ANTARCTICA A. PREPARING AND VALIDATING THE SATELLITE MISSIONS 1. Space and the polar regions: preparation complementarity 2. Validating on the ground observations made from space B. PREPARING MANNED SPACE FLIGHTS AND MOON OR MARS-BASED STATIONS 1. Concordia - a unique research site 2. Studying behaviour in an extreme environment 3. Physiological studies C. TESTING EXPLORATION MATERIAL 1. American examples and projects 2. European perspectives VI. FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE POLAR REGIONS A. DEVELOPING FRANCE'S PRESENCE IN THE ARCTIC, STRENGTHENING ITS PRESENCE IN ANTARCTICA 1. Developing France's Arctic presence 2. Strengthening our presence in the southern regions B. IPEV (THE FRENCH PAUL-EMILE VICTOR INSTITUTE), AN AGENCY OF MEANS VII. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: A NECESSITY AND A GOAL A. HOW TO ENCOURAGE A EUROPEAN PROCESS? 1. The European Union: a sufficient framework? 2. The practical and political limitations of cooperation 3. Towards an Italian-German-French engine? B. WHAT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION FOR FRANCE ON THE EVE OF THE IPY? 1. Excellence, proximity and longevity: three key criteria for cooperation 2. Developing a network for the stations VIII. THE RAPPORTEUR'S CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS 1. Strategic regions 2. Regions to protect 3. Essential regions for understanding climate change 4. Life in the polar regions: of great value to humanity 5. The polar regions: an observatory for the Earth 6. Strongly support the development of astronomy at Concordia 7. Take advantage of the polar regions' complementarity with the space missions 8. Strengthen France's presence in the polar regions 9. Reorganize France's presence in the polar regions 10. Better coordinate polar research 11. Solve the problem of insufficient funding for polar-research logistics 12. Define a French strategy for European and international cooperation APPENDICES SPEAKERS PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1 MARCH 2007 SEMINAR: "OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE" PART ONE: LUNCH-DEBATE I. MR. HENRI REVOL, PRESIDENT OF THE OPECST II. MR. JEAN-LOUIS ETIENNE PART TWO: OFFICIAL OPENING SESSION I. INTRODUCTION A. MR. CHRISTIAN GAUDIN, SENATOR, RAPPORTEUR FOR THE OPECST B. MS. CATHERINE BRECHIGNAC, PRESIDENT OF THE CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE (CNRS) C. MR. MICHEL JARRAUD, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION D. MR. CHRISTIAN COINTAT, SENATOR, PRESIDENT OF THE ANTARCTIC AND ARTIC STUDY GROUP II. OFFICIAL OPENING OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR IN FRANCE BY MR. CHRISTIAN PONCELET, PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE III. THEMATIC DEBATE-THE POLES: INDICATORS AND EVIDENCE FOR MANKIND A. MS. NELLY OLIN, MINISTER OF ECOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT B. MS. VALERIE MASSON-DELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST, CEA C. MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST, CNRS D. MS. JOELLE ROBERT-LAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST, CNRS E. DEBATE IV. CLOSING SPEECHES A. MR. FRAN〈;:OIS GOULARD, MINISTER FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AND RESEARCH B. HIS SERENE HIGHNESS PRINCE ALBERT II OF MONACO APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. VALERIE MASSONDELMOTTE, CLIMATOLOGIST - CEA APPENDIX 2: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MS. JOELLE ROBERTLAMBLIN, ANTHROPOLOGIST - CNRS APPENDIX 3: DOCUMENTS PRESENTED BY MR. YVON LE MAHO, BIOLOGIST- CNRS

Note: Contents Preface PART I Framework of Climate Science CHAPTER 1 Overview of Climate Science Climate and Climate Change 1-1 Geologic Time Tools of Climate Science: Temperature Scales 1-2 How This Book Is Organized Development of Climate Science 1-3 How Scientists Study Climate Change Overview of the Climate System 1-4 Components of the Climate System 1-5 Climate Forcing 1-6 Climate System Responses 1-7 Time Scales of Forcing Versus Response 1-8 Differing Response Rates and Climate-System Interactions 1-9 Feedbacks in the Climate System Climate Interactions and Feedbacks: Positive and Negative Feedbacks CHAPTER 2 Climate Archives, Data, and Models Climate Archives, Dating, and Resolution 2-1 Types of Archives 2-2 Dating Climate Records 2-3 Climatic Resolution Climatic Data 2-4 Biotic Data 2-5 Geological and Geochemical Data Climate Models 2-6 Physical Climate Models 2-7 Geochemical Models PART II Tectonic-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 3 CO2and Long-Term Climate Greenhouse Worlds Faint Young Sun Paradox Carbon Exchanges Between Rocks and the Atmosphere 3-1 Volcanic Input of Carbon from Rocks to the Atmosphere 3-2 Removal of CO2 from the Atmosphere by Chemical Weathering Climatic Factors That Control Chemical Weathering Is Chemical Weathering Earth’s Thermostat? 3-3 Greenhouse Role of Water Vapor Is Life the Ultimate Control on Earth’s Thermostat? 3-4 Gaia Hypothesis Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon Subcycle Was There a “Thermostat Malfunction”? A Snowball Earth? CHAPTER Plate Tectonics and Long-Term Climate Plate Tectonics 4-1 Structure and Composition of Tectonic Plates 4-2 Evidence of Past Plate Motions Polar Position Hypothesis 4-3 Glaciations and Continental Positions Since 500 Myr Ago Modeling Climate on the Supercontinent Pangaea 4-4 Input to the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Brief Glaciation 440 Myr Ago 4-5 Output from the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea Tectonic Control of CO2 Input: BLAG Spreading-Rate Hypothesis 4-6 Control of CO2 Input by Seafloor Spreading 4-7 Initial Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis Tectonic Control of CO2Removal: Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis 4-8 Rock Exposure and Chemical Weathering 4-9 Case Study: The Wind River Basin of Wyoming 4-10 Uplift and Chemical Weathering 4-11 Case Study: Weathering in the Amazon Basin 4-12 Weathering: Both a Climate Forcing and a Feedback? CHAPTER 5 Greenhouse Climate What Explains the Warmth 100 Myr Ago? 5-1 Model Simulations of the Cretaceous Greenhouse 5-2 What Explains the Data-Model Mismatch? 5-3 Relevance of Past Greenhouse Climate to the Future Sea Level Changes and Climate 5-4 Causes of Tectonic-Scale Changes in Sea Level 5-5 Effect of Changes in Sea Level on Climate Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Calculating Changes in Sea Level Asteroid Impact Large and Abrupt Greenhouse Episode near 50 Myr Ago CHAPTER 6 From Greenhouse to Icehouse: The Last 50 Million Years Global Climate Change Since 50 Myr Ago 6-1 Evidence from Ice and Vegetation 6-2 Evidence from Oxygen Isotope Measurements 6-3 Evidence from Mg/Ca Measurements Do Changes in Geography Explain the Cooling? 6-4 Gateway Hypothesis 6-5 Assessment of Gateway Changes Hypotheses Linked to Changes in CO2 6-6 Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis 6-7 Evaluation of the Uplift Weathering Hypothesis Climate DebateTiming of the Uplift in Western North America Future Climate Change at Tectonic Scales Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Organic Carbon: Monterrey Hypothesis PART III Orbital-Scale Climate Change CHAPTER 7 Astronomical Control of Solar Radiation Earth’s Orbit Today 7-1 Earth’s Tilted Axis of Rotation and the Seasons 7-2 Earth’s Eccentric Orbit: Distance Between Earth and Sun Long-Term Changes in Earth’s Orbit 7-3 Changes in Earth’s Axial Tilt Through Time Tools of Climate Science: Cycles and Modulation 7-4 Changes in Earth’s Eccentric Orbit Through Time 7-5 Precession of the Solstices and Equinoxes Around Earth’s Orbit Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Earth’s Precession as a Sine Wave Changes in Insolation Received on Earth 7-6 Insolation Changes by Month and Season 7-7 Insolation Changes by Caloric Seasons Searching for Orbital-Scale Changes in Climatic Records 7-8 Time Series Analysis 7-9 Effects of Undersampling Climate Records 7-10 Tectonic-Scale Changes in Earth’s Orbit CHAPTER 8 Insolation Control of Monsoons Monsoon Circulations 8-1 Orbital-Scale Control of Summer Monsoons Orbital-Scale Changes in North African Summer Monsoons 8-2 “Stinky Muds” in the Mediteranean 8-3 Freshwater Diatoms in the Tropical Atlantic 8-4 Upwelling in the Equatorial Atlantic Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis: Regional Assessment 8-5 Cave Speleothems in China and Brazil 8-6 Phasing of Summer Monsoons Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Insolation-Driven Monsoon Responses: Chronometer for Tuning Monsoon Forcing Earlier in Earth’s History 8-7 Monsoons on Pangaea 200 Myr Ago 8-8 Joint Tectonic and Orbital Control of Monsoons CHAPTER 9 Insolation Control of Ice Sheets Milankovitch Theory: Orbital Control of Ice Sheets Modeling the Behavior of Ice Sheets 9-1 Insolation Control of Ice Sheet Size 9-2 Ice Sheets Lag Behind Summer Insolation Forcing 9-3 Delayed Bedrock Response Beneath Ice Sheets Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Ice Volume Response to Insolation 9-4 Full Cycle of Ice Growth and Decay 9-5 Ice Slipping and Calving Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet History 9-6 Ice Sheet History: δ18O Evidence 9-7 Confirming Ice Volume Changes: Coral Reefs and Sea Level Is Milankovich’s Theory the Full Answer? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Sea Level on Uplifting Islands CHAPTER 10 Orbital-Scale Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Methane Ice Cores 10-1 Drilling and Dating Ice Cores 10-2 Verifying Ice-Core Measurements of Ancient Air 10-3 Orbital-Scale Carbon Transfers: Carbon Isotopes Orbital-Scale Changes in CO2 10-4 Where Did the Missing Carbon Go? 10-5 δ13C Evidence of Carbon Transfer How Did the Carbon Get into the Deep Ocean? 10-6 Increased CO2 Solubility in Seawater 10-7 Biological Transfer from Surface Waters A Closer Look at Climate Science: Using δ13C to Measure Carbon Pumping 10-8 Changes in Deep-Water Circulation Orbital-Scale Changes in CH4 Orbital-Scale Climatic Roles: CO2and CH4 CHAPTER 11 Orbital-Scale Interactions, Feedbacks, and Unsolved Problems Climatic Responses Driven by the Ice Sheets Mystery of the 41,000-Year Glacial World 11-1 Did Insolation Really Vary Mainly at 41,000 Years? 11-2 Interhemispheric Cancellation of 23,000-Year Ice Volume Responses? 11-3 CO2 Feedback at 41,000 Years? Mystery of the ~100,000-Year Glacial World 11-4 How Is the Northern Ice Signal Transferred South? Why did the Northern Ice Sheets Vary at ~100,000 Years? Looking Deeper into Climate Science: Link Between Forcing and the Time Constants of Ice Response 11-5 Ice Interactions with Bedrock 11-6 Ice Interactions with the Local Environment 11-7 Ice Interactions with Greenhouse Gases PART IV Deglacial Climate Change CHAPTER 12 Last Glacial Maximum Glacial World: More Ice, Less Gas 12-1 Project CLIMAP: Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum 12-2 How Large Were the Ice Sheets? 12-3 Glacial Dirt and Winds Testing Model Simulations Against Biotic Data 12-4 COHMAP: Data-Model Comparisons 12-5 Pollen: Indicator of Climate on the Continents 12-6 Using Pollen for Data-Model Comparisons Data-Model Comparisons of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-7 Model Simulations of Glacial Maximum Climates 12-8 Climate Changes near the Northern Ice Sheets 12-9 Climate Changes far from the Northern Ice Sheets How Cold Were the Glacial Tropics? 12-10 Evidence for a Small Tropical Cooling 12-11 Evidence for a Large Tropical Cooling 12-12 Actual Cooling Was Medium-Small CHAPTER 13 Climate During and Since the Last Deglaciation Fire and Ice: Shift in the Balance of Power 13-1 When Did the Ice Sheets Melt? 13-2 Coral Reefs and Rising Sea Level 13-3 Glitches in the Deglaciation: Deglacial Two-Step To

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Note: Contents Preface 1 Data Analysis in Earth Sciences 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Collecting Data 1.3 Types of Data 1.4 Methods of Data Analysis Recommended Reading 2 Introduction to MATLAB 2.1 MATLAB in Earth Sciences 2.2 Getting Started 2.3 The Syntax 2.4 Data Storage 2.5 Data Handling 2.6 Scripts and Functions 2.7 Basic Visualization Tools Recommended Reading 3 Univariate Statistics 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Empirical Distributions Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Dispersion 3.3 Example of Empirical Distributions 3.4 Theoretical Distributions Uniform Distribution Binomial or Bernoulli Distribution Poisson Distribution Normal or Gaussian Distribution Logarithmic Normal or Log-Normal Distribution Student's t Distribution Fisher's F Distribution Χ2 or Chi-Squared Distribution 3.5 Example ofTheoretical Distributions 3.6 Thet-Test 3.7 TheF-Test 3.8 The Χ2-Test Recommended Reading 4 Bivariate Statistics 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Pearson's Correlation Coefficient 4.3 Classical Linear Regression Analysis and Prediction 4.4 Analyzing the Residuals 4.5 Bootstrap Estimates of the Regression Coefficients 4.6 Jackknife Estimates of the Regression Coefficients 4.7 Cross Validation 4.8 Reduced Major Axis Regression 4.9 Curvilinear Regression Recommended Reading 5 Time-Series Analysis 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Generating Signals 5.3 Blackman-Tukey Autospectral Analysis 5.4 Blackman-Tukey Crossspectral Analysis 5.5 Interpolating and Analyzing Unevenly-Spaced Data 5.6 Evolutionary Blackman-Tukey Powerspectrum 5.7 Lomb-Scargle Powerspectrum 5.8 Wavelet Powerspectrum 5.9 Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis (by N. Marwarn) Phase Space Portrait Recurrence Plots Recommended Reading 6 Signal Processing 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Generating Signals 6.3 Linear Time-Invariant Systems 6.4 Convolution and Filtering 6.5 Comparing Functions for Filtering Data Series 6.6 Recursive and Nonrecursive Filters 6.7 Impulse Response 6.8 Frequency Response 6.9 Filter Design 6.10 Adaptive Filtering Recommended Reading 7 Spatial Data 7.1 Types of Spatial Data 7.2 The GSHHS Shoreline Data Set 7.3 The 2-Minute Gridded Global Elevation Data ETOPO2 7.4 The 30-Arc Seconds Elevation Model GTOPO30 7.5 The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SRTM 7.6 Gridding and Contouring Background 7.7 Gridding Example 7.8 Comparison of Methods and Potential Artifacts 7.9 Statistics of Point Distributions Test for Uniform Distribution Test for Random Distribution Test for Clustering 7.10 Analysis of Digital Elevation Models (by R. Gebbers) 7.11 Geostatistics and Kriging (by R. Gebbers) Theorical Background Preceding Analysis Variography with the Classical Variogram Kriging Discussion of Kriging Recommended Reading 8 Image Processing 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Datastorage 8.3 Importing, Processing and Exporting Images 8.4 Importing, Processing and Exporting Satellite Images 8.5 Georeferencing Satellite Images 8.6 Digitizing from the Screen Recommended Reading 9 Multivariate Statistics 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Principal Component Analysis 9.3 Independent Component Analysis (by N. Marwan) 9.4 Cluster Analysis Recommended Reading 10 Statistics on Directional Data 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Graphical Representation 10.3 Empirical Distributions 10.4 Theoretical Distributions 10.5 Test for Randomness of Directional Data 10.6 Test for the Significance of a Mean Direction 10.7 Test for the Difference of Two Sets of Directions Recommended Reading General Index

Note: Contents: List of contributors. - 1 Introduction / Herman H. Shugart, Rik Leemans and Gordon B. Bonan. - Part 1 Processes in boreal forests. - 2 Silvics of the circumpolar boreal forest tree species / Nedialko Nikolov and Harry Helmisaari. - 3 The reproductive process in boreal forest trees / John C. Zasada, Terry L. Sharik and Markku Nygren. - 4 Soil temperature as an ecological factor in boreal forests / Gordon B. Bonan. - 5 Fire as a controlling process in the North American boreal forest / Serge Payette. - 6 The role of forest insects in structuring the boreal landscape / C. S. Holling. - Part 2 Patterns in space and time in boreal forests. - 7 The transition between boreal forest and tundra / Luc Sirois. - 8 The southern boreal-northern hardwood forest border / John Pastor and David J. Mladenoff. - 9 Transitions between boreal forest and wetland / F. Z. Glebov and M. D. Korzukhin. - 10 Remote sensing technology for forest ecosystem analysis / K. Jon Ranson and Darrel L. Williams. - 11 The nature and distribution of past, present and future boreal forests: lessons for a research and modeling agenda / Allen M. Solomon. - Part 3 Computer models for synthesis of pattern and process in the boreal forest. - 12 Individual-tree-based models of forest dynamics and their application in global change research / Herman H. Shugart and I. Colin Prentice. - 13 Population-level models of forest dynamics / M. D.Korzukhin and M. Ya. Antonovski. - 14 A spatial model of long-term forest fire dynamics and its applications to forests in western Siberia / M. Ya. Antonovski, M. T. Ter-Mikaelian and V. V. Furyaev. - 15 A simulation analysis of environmental factors and ecological processes in North American boreal forests / Gordon B. Bonan. - 16 The biological component of the simulation model for boreal forest dynamics / Rik Leemans. - 17 Role of stand simulation in modeling forest response to environmental change and management interventions / Peter Duinker, Ola Salinäs and Sten Nilsson. - 18 Concluding comments / Herman H. Shugart, Rik Leemans and Gordon B. Bonan. - References. - Index.

Note: Contents: Preface. - Acknowledgements. - Chapter 1 Climate. - 1.1 The components of climate. - 1.2 Climate modelling and climate prediction. - 1.3 Climate changes and human perception. - 1.4 Feedback mechanisms in climate. - 1.4.1 The ice-albedo feedback mechanism. - 1.4.2 The water vapour “greenhouse”. - 1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks. - 1.4.4 Combining feedback effects. - 1.5 Perturbations on the climate system. - 1.5.1 External causes of climatic change. - 1.5.2 Internal causes of climatic change. - 1.6 Range of questions for climate modelling. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 2 A history of and introduction to climate models. - 2.1 Introducing climate modelling. - 2.2 Types of climate models. - 2.2.1 Energy balance climate models. - 2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective climate models. - 2.2.3 Two-dimensional climate models. - 2.2.4 General circulation climate models. - 2.3 History of climate modelling. - 2.4 Sensitivity of climate models. - 2.5 Parameterization of climatic processes. - 2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling. - Chapter 3 Energy balance models. - 3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget. - 3.2 The structure of energy balance models. - 3.3 Parameterizing the climate system for energy balance models. - 3.4 A BASIC energy balance climate model. - 3.5 Experiments with energy balance models. - 3.5.1 Explicit modelling of the cryosphere. - 3.6 Box models — another form of energy balance model. - 3.6.1 A simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere. - 3.6.2 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model. - 3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple models. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 4 Radiative-convective models. - 4.1 The concept of a radiative-convective climate model. - 4.2 The structure of global radiative-convective models. - 4.3 Radiation computation. - 4.3.1 Shortwave radiation. - 4.3.2 Longwave radiation. - 4.3.3 Eleat balance at the ground. - 4.4 Convective adjustment. - 4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative-convective models. - 4.6 Development of radiative-convective models. - 4.6.1 Cloud amount and height predicted from ‘convection’. - 4.6.2 A water vapour transport model. - 4.7 Radiation: the driver of climate. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 5 Two-dimensional models. - 5.1 Why two-dimensional models?. - 5.2 Two-dimensional statistical dynamical climate models. - 5.3 Convection, cloud cover and precipitation in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models. - 5.4 Radiation and surface characterization in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models. - 5.4.1 Radiation. - 5.4.2 Surface characterization. - 5.5 Intercomparison of a two-and a three-dimensional model. - 5.6 Other types of two-dimensional models. - 5.6.1 An upgraded energy balance model. - 5.6.2 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model. - 5.7 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?. - Recommended reading. - Chapter 6 General circulation climate models. - 6.1 The structure of general circulation climate models. - 6.2 Dynamics in general circulation climate models. - 6.2.1 Cartesian (or rectangular) grid general circulation climate models. - 6.2.2 Spectral general circulation climate models. - 6.3 Physics in general circulation climate models. - 6.3.1 Radiative transfer. - 6.3.2 Boundary layer. - 6.3.3 Surface parameterization. - 6.3.4 Convection. - 6.3.5 Large scale rainfall. - 6.4 Including ‘other’ elements in general circulation climate models. - 6.4.1 Cloud prediction. - 6.4.2 Modelling the cryosphere. - 6.5 Land surface parameterization in general circulation climate models. - 6.6 Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate models. - 6.7 Future climate projects and their importance to general circulation climate models. - 6.8 Epilogue. - Recommended reading. - Appendices. - A. Glossary. - B. Climate models: examples of simple microcomputer software. - I. Daisyworld: a simple biospheric feedback climate model. - II. Modelling the climatic impact of anthropogenerated albedo change. - III. An energy balance climate model (EBM). - IV. Carbon dioxide feedback using a simple ocean model. - General Bibliography. - Index.

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components 15.3.4

Note: Contents Preface Acknowledgments 1. Statistics for Spatial Data 1.1 Spatial Data and Spatial Models 1.2 Introductory Examples 1.2.1 Geostatistical Data 1.2.2 Lattice Data 1.2.3 Point Patterns 1.3 Statistics for Spatial Data: Why? PART I GEOSTATISTICAL DATA 2. Geostatistics 2.1 Continuous Spatial Index 2.2 Spatial Data Analysis of Coal Ash in Pennsylvania 2.2.1 Intrinsic Stationarity 2.2.2 Square-Root-Differences Cloud 2.2.3 The Pocket Plot 2.2.4 Decomposing the Data into Large- and Small-Scale Variation 2.2.5 Analysis of Residuals 2.2.6 Variogram of Residuals from Median Polish 2.3 Stationary Processes 2.3.1 Variogram 2.3.2 Covariogram and Correlogram 2.4 Estimation of the Variogram 2.4.1 Comparison of Variogram and Covariogram Estimation 2.4.2 Exact Distribution Theory for the Variogram Estimator 2.4.3 Robust Estimation of the Variogram 2.5 Spectral Representations 2.5.1 Valid Covariograms 2.5.2 Valid Variograms 2.6 Variogram Model Fitting 2.6.1 Criteria for Fitting a Variogram Model 2.6.2 Least Squares 2.6.3 Properties of Variogram-Parameter Estimators 2.6.4 Cross-Validating the Fitted Variogram 3. Spatial Prediction and Kriging 3.1 Scale of Variation 3.2 Ordinary Kriging 3.2.1 Effect of Variogram Parameters on Kriging 3.2.2 Lognormal and Trans-Gaussian Kriging 3.2.3 Cokriging 3.2.4 Some Final Remarks 3.3 Robust Kriging 3.4 Universal Kriging 3.4.1 Universal Kriging of Coal-Ash Data 3.4.2 Trend-Surface Prediction 3.4.3 Estimating the Variogram for Universal Kriging 3.4.4 Bayesian Kriging 3.4.5 Kriging Revisited 3.5 Median-Polish Kriging 3.5.1 Gridded Data 3.5.2 Nongridded Data 3.5.3 Median Polishing Spatial Data: Inference Results 3.5.4 Median-Based Covariogram Estimators are Less Biased 3.6 Geostatistical Data, Simulated and Real 3.6.1 Simulation of Spatial Processes 3.6.2 Conditional Simulation 3.6.3 Geostatistical Data 4. Applications of Geostatistics 4.1 Wolfcamp-Aquifer Data 4.1.1 Intrinsic-Stationarity Assumption 4.1.2 Nonconstant-Mean Assumption 4.2 Soil-Water Tension Data 4.3 Soil-Water-Infiltration Data 4.3.1 Estimating and Modeling the Spatial Dependence 4.3.2 Inference on Mean Effects (Spatial Analysis of Variance) 4.4 Sudden-Infant-Death-Syndrome Data 4.5 Wheat-Yield Data 4.5.1 Presence of Trend in the Data 4.5.2 Intrinsic Stationarity 4.5.3 Median-Polish (Robust) Kriging 4.6 Acid-Deposition Data 4.6.1 Spatial Modeling and Prediction 4.6.2 Sampling Design 4.7 Space-Time Geostatistical Data 5. Special Topics in Statistics for Spatial Data 5.1 Nonlinear Geostatistics 5.2 Change of Support 5.3 Stability of the Geostatistical Method 5.3.1 Estimation of Spatial-Dependence Parameters 5.3.2 Stability of the Kriging Predictor 5.3.3 Stability of the Kriging Variance 5.4 Intrinsic Random Functions of Order k 5.5 Applications of the Theory of Random Processes 5.6 Spatial Design 5.6.1 Spatial Sampling Design 5.6.2 Spatial Experimental Design 5.7 Field Trials 5.7.1 Nearest-Neighbor Analyses 5.7.2 Analyses Based on Spatial Modeling 5.8 Infill Asymptotics 5.9 The Many Faces of Spatial Prediction 5.9.1 Stochastic Methods of Spatial Prediction 5.9.2 Nonstochastic Methods of Spatial Prediction 5.9.3 Comparisons and Some Final Remarks PART II LATTICE DATA 6. Spatial Models on Lattices 6.1 Lattices 6.2 Spatial Data Analysis of Sudden Infant Deaths in North Carolina 6.2.1 Nonspatial Data Analysis 6.2.2 Spatial Data Analysis 6.2.3 Trend Removal 6.2.4 Some Final Remarks 6.3 Conditionally and Simultaneously Specified Spatial Gaussian Models 6.3.1 Simultaneously Specified Spatial Gaussian Models 6.3.2 Conditionally Specified Spatial Gaussian Models 6.3.3 Comparison 6.4 Markov Random Fields 6.4.1 Neighbors, Cliques, and the Negpotential Function Q 6.4.2 Pairwise-Only Dependence and Conditional Exponential Distributions 6.4.3 Some Final Remarks 6.5 Conditionally Specified Spatial Models for Discrete Data 6.5.1 Binary Data 6.5.2 Counts Data 6.6 Conditionally Specified Spatial Models for Continuous Data 6. 7 Simultaneously Specified and Other Spatial Models 6.7.1 Simultaneously Specified Spatial Models 6.7.2 Other Spatial Models 6.8 Space-Time Models 7. Inference for Lattice Models 7.1 Inference for the Mercer and Hall Wheat-Yield Data 7.1.1 Data Description 7.1.2 Spatial Lattice Models 7.2 Parameter Estimation for Lattice Models 7.2.1 Estimation Criteria 7.2.2 Gaussian Maximum Likelihood Estimation 7.2.3 Some Computational Details 7.3 Properties of Estimators 7.3.1 Increasing-Domain Asymptotics 7.3.2 The Jackknife and Bootstrap for Spatial Lattice Data 7.3.3 Cross-Validation and Model Selection 7.4 Statistical Image Analysis and Remote Sensing 7.4.1 Remote Sensing 7 .4.2 Ordinary Discriminant Analysis 7.4.3 Markov-Random-Field Models 7.4.4 Edge Processes 7.4.5 Textured Images 7.4.6 Single Photon Emission Tomography 7.4.7 Least Squares and Image Regularization 7.4.8 Method of Sieves 7.4.9 Mathematical Morphology 7.5 Regional Mapping, Scotland Lip-Cancer Data 7.5.1 Exploratory Regional Mapping 7.5.2 Parametric Empirical Bayes Mapping 7.6 Sudden-Infant-Death-Syndrome Data 7.6.1 Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis 7.6.2 Auto-Poisson Model 7 .6.3 Auto-Gaussian Model 7. 7 Lattice Data, Simulated and Real 7.7.1 Simulation of Lattice Processes 7.7.2 Lattice Data PART III SPATIAL PATTERNS 8. Spatial Point Patterns 8.1 Random Spatial Index 8.2 Spatial Data Analysis of Longleaf Pines (Pinus palustris) 8.2.1 Data Description 8.2.2 Complete Spatial Randomness, Regularity, and Clustering 8.2.3 Quadrat Methods 8.2.4 Kernel Estimators of the Intensity Function 8.2.5 Distance Methods 8.2.6 Nearest-Neighbor Distribution Functions and the K Function 8.2.7 Some Final Remarks 8.3 Point Process Theory 8.3.1 Moment Measures 8.3.2 Generating Functionals 8.3.3 Stationary and Isotropic Point Processes 8.3.4 Palm Distributions 8.3.5 Reduced Second Moment Measure 8.4 Complete Spatial Randomness, Distance Functions, and Second Moment Measures 8.4.1 Complete Spatial Randomness 8.4.2 Distance Functions 8.4.3 K Functions, 8.4.4 Animal-Behavior Data 8.4.5 Some Final Remarks 8.5 Models and Model Fitting 8.5.1 Inhomogeneous Poisson Process 8.5.2 Cox Process 8.5.3 Poisson Cluster Process 8.5.4 Simple Inhibition Point Processes 8.5.5 Markov Point Process 8.5.6 Thinned and Related Point Processes 8.5.7 Other Models 8.5.8 Some Final Remarks 8.6 Multivariate Spatial Point Processes 8.6.1 Theoretical Considerations 8.6.2 Estimation of the Cross K Function 8.6.3 Bivariate Spatial-Point-Process Models 8.7 Marked Spatial Point Processes 8.7.1 Theoretical Considerations 8.7.2 Estimation of Moment Measures 8.7.3 Marked Spatial-Point-Process Models 8.8 Space-Time Point Patterns 8.9 Spatial Point Patterns, Simulated and Real 8.9.1 Simulation of Spatial Point Patterns 8.9.2 Spatial Point Patterns 9. Modeting Objects 9.1 Set Models 9.1.1 Fractal Sets 9.1.2 Fuzzy Sets 9.1.3 Random Closed Sets: An Example 9.2 Random Parallelograms in IR 2 9.3 Random Closed Sets and Mathematical Morphology 9.3.1 Theory and Methods 9.3.2 Inference on Random Closed Sets 9.4 The Boolean Model 9.4.1 Main Properties 9.4.2 Generalizations of the Boolean Model 9.5 Methods of Boolean-Model Parameter Estimation 9.5.1 Analysis of Random-Parallelograms Data 9.5.2 Analysis of Heather-Incidence Data 9.5.3 Intensity Estimation in the Boolean Model 9.6 Inference for the Boolean Model 9.7 Modeling Growth with Random Sets 9.7.1 Random-Set Growth Models 9.7.2 Tumor-Growth Data 9.7.3 Fitting the Tumor-Growth Parameters References Author Index Subject lndex

Note: CONTENTS Preface List of Contributors Introduction 1. Predicting the Hydrological Effects of Climate Change / J.A.A. Jones Section I Sensitivity of the Global Hydrosphere Section Summary 2. An Introduction to Global Water Dynamics / I. Kayane 3. Modelling the Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle: Upscaling Processes and Downscaling Weather Data / B. Bass, N. Akkur, J. Russo and J. Zack 4. Trends in Historical Steamflow Records / F.H.S. Chiew and T.A. McMahon Section II Regional Implications of Global Warming Section Summary 5. Hydrology of Northern North America under Global Warming / M.-K. Woo 6. Current Evidence on the Likely Impact of Global Warming on Hydrological Regimes in Europe / J.A.A. Jones 7. The Impact of Climatic Warming on Hydrological Regimes in China: An Overview / L. Changming and F. Guobin Section. Ill Precipitation Change and Variability Section Summary 8. The Influence of Topography, Season and Circulation on Spatial Patterns of Daily Precipitation / P.J. Robinson 9. Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Precipitation Forecasting / H.-T. Kung, L.Yu. Lin and S. Malasri 10. Generation of Sequences of Air Temperature and Precipitation for Estimation of the Hydrological Cycle in Changing Climatic Conditions in Poland / M. Gutry-Korycka and P. Werner 11. Some Aspects of Climatic Fluctuation at Four Stations on the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 40 Years / M. Yoshino 12. The Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niiio/Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Winter Precipitation in Ireland / S. Daultrey Section IV Impacts on Snow, Ice and Meltwaters Section Summary 13. Runoff Formation and Discharge Modelling of a Glacierized Basin in the Tianshan Mountains / K. Ersi, S. Yafeng, A. Ohmura and H. Lang 14. Impact of Future Climate Change on Glacier Runoff and the Possibilities for Artificially Increasing Melt Water Runoff in the Aral Sea Basin / A.N. Krenke and G.N. Kravchenko 15. Glaciers and Snowcover in Central Asia as Indicators of Climate Change in the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere System / V.B. Aizen and E.M. Aizen 16. Global Warming and the Trend toward Dryness in the Frigid High Mountains and Plateau of Western China / L.-S. Zhang Section V The Water Balance and Changing Regional Resources Section Summary 17. A Method to Assess the Effects of Climatic Warming on the Water Balance of Mountainous Regions / C. Liu and M.-K. Woo 18. Sensitivity Analyses for the Impact of Global Warming on Water Resources in Wales / C.P. Holt and J.A.A. Jones 19. Potential Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Australia / F.H.S. Chiew, Q.J. Wang, T.A. McMahon, B.C. Bates and P.H. Whetton 20. Dynamics of Stage Fluctuation in Yangzhouyongcuo Lake, Tibetan Plateau / T. Liu 21. Derivation of Surface Temperature, Albedo, and Radiative Fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau Based on Satellite Measurement / L. Shi 22. Climatic Warming and its Impact on the Water Resources of the Yalong River, China / D. Yuren and H. Yuguang 23. The Probable Impact of Global Change on the Water Resources of Patagonia, Argentina / R.M. Quintela, O.E. Scarpati, L.B. Spescha and AD. Capriolo 24. Long Term Trends in the Water Balance of Central Japan / K. Mori Conclusions 25. The Impact of Global Warming on Regional Hydrology and Future Research Priorities / J.A.A. Jones Index

Note: Contents Foreword xi OPENING ADDRESSES Professor G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General, World Meteorological Organization Dr M.K. Tolba, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme Dr F. Mayor, Director General, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Professor M.G.K. Menon, President, International Council of Scientific Unions Dr H. de Haen, Assistant Director General, Food and Agriculture Organization SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SESSIONS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE IPCC ASSESSMENT The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / B. Bolin Scientific Assessment of Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Working Group I Report / J.T. Houghton Greenhouse Gases and Other Climate Forcing Agents / U. Siegenthaler and E. Sanhueza Climate Change Prediction / J. F. B. Mitchell and Zeng Qingcun Climate Trends and Variability / M. Coughian and B.S. Nyenzi Climate Change Impact Studies: The IPCC Working Group II Report / Yu. Izrael Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources / H.E. Lins, I.A. Shiklomanov and E.Z. Stakhiv Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture, A Critical Assessment / S.K. Sinha Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Settlements, the Energy, Transport and Industrial Sectors; Human Health and Air Quality / M. Hashimoto and S. Nishioka The Response Strategies Working Group of the IPCC / F. Bernthal The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy / P. Vellinga and R.J. Swart Adaptation Measures / K.M. Sarma Limitation Strategies / K. Yokobori Report of the IPCC Special Committee on the Participation of Developing Countries / J. Ripert OVERVIEW OF THE WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME The World Climate Programme: Achievements and Challenges / J.P, Bruce Modern Data and Applications: World Climate Data Programme, World Climate Applications Programme / V.G. Boldirev Overview of the World Climate Research Programme / P. Morel World Climate Impact Studies Programme / J.C.I. Dooge CLIMATE RESEARCH Global Climate, Energy and Water Cycle / G.A. McBean Remote Sensing and Global Climate Change: Water Cycle and Energy Budget / H. Grassl World Ocean Circulation and Climate Change: Research Programmes and a Global Observing System / D.J. Baker Short Term Climate Variability and Predictions / J. Shukia Paleodata, Paleoclimates and the Greenhouse Effect / H. Oeschger Climate Prediction Based on Past and Current Analogues / M.I. Budyko Detection of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect on Climate / T.M.L. Wigley and S.C.B. Raper CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Water Climate, Water and Development / J. Sircoulon Drought Issues for the 1990s / M.H. Glantz and W. Degefu Agriculture and Food Agriculture and Food Systems / M.S. Swaminathan The Potential Effect of Climate Changes on Agriculture / M. Parry and Zhang Jiachen Oceans, Fisheries and Coastal Zones Effects of Global Climatic Change on Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries / T. Kawasaki Sea Level Rise and Coastal Zone Management / E.M. Eid and C.H. Huisbergen Energy Beginning to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions need not be Expensive: Examples from the Energy Sector / E. Mills, D. Wilson and TB. Johansson Land Use and Urban Planning Climate and Land Use in North Africa / M. Kassas Climate and Urban Planning / R. Taesler Human Dimensions Human Well-being, Diseases and Climate / W.H. Weihe and R. Mertens Population and Global Climate Change / D. Norse Public Information and Attitudes / R. Lamb Environment and Development Climate, Environment and Ecology / W.H. Schlesinger Climate, Tropical Ecosystems and the Survivability of Species / P. Olindo Some Possible Impacts of Climate Change on African Ecosystems / C.H.D. Magadza Forests Forests: Their Role in Global Change, with Special Reference to the Brazilian Amazon / E. Salati, R.L. Victoria, L.A. Martinelli and J. E. Richey Integrated Studies Climate Change and Risk Management / K. Turner, T. ORiordan and R. Kemp Climate, Climate Change, and the Economy / N.S. Jodha and W.J. Maunder Assessing the Regional Implications of Climate Variability and Change / W.E. Riebsame and A. Magalhaes SPECIAL PRESENTATION Climate Change and the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development / M.F. Strong TASK GROUPS AND CONSULTATION GROUP REPORTS Task Group I Climate, Hydrology and Water Resources Task Group 2 Agriculture and Food Task Group 3 Oceans, Fisheries and Coastal Zones Task Group 4 Energy Task Group 5 Land Use and Urban Planning Task Group 6 Human Dimensions of Climate Change Task Group 7 Environment and Development Task Group 8 Forests Task Group 9 WCP Overview Task Group 10 The World Climate Programme: Overview and Future Task Group 11 Scientific Components of International Agreements Task Group 12 Synthesis Consultation Group on the Special Needs of Developing Countries SUMMARIES OF PANEL DISCUSSIONS Global Climate Analogues and Global Climate Models Climate and Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development Industry's Response Co-operation in International Research Programmes CONFERENCE STATEMENT MINISTERIAL SESSIONS OPENING CEREMONY Introduction by Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General, WMO H.E. Mr. Arnold Koller, President of the Swiss Confederation His Majesty King Hussein Bin Talal, of the Royal Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan The Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland H.E. Mr. Michel Rocard, Prime Minister of France The Rt. Hon. Edward Fenech-Adami, Prime Minister of Malta The Rt. Hon. Bikenibeu Paeniu, Prime Minister of Tuvalu Statement by Dr. E. Saouma, Director General, FAO CLOSING CEREMONY Statement by Dr. F. Mayor, Director General, UNESCO MINISTERIAL DECLARATION Appendix 1 SWCC Inter-Agency Committees Appendix 2 Poster Session Papers Appendix 3 Statement by Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations Appendix 4 Participants at the Scientific/Technical Sessions Appendix 5 Countries and Organizations Represented at the Ministerial Sessions Appendix 6 Participating Non-Governmental Organizations Appendix 7 Acronyms Appendix 8 Units

Note: Teilw. in kyrill. Schr.

Note: Enth.: Giess, W.: Die in der Zentralem Namib von Südwestafrika / Namibia festgestellten Pflanzenarten und ihre Biotope

Note: Contents: 1. The rule we live by ; 2. Habits of the mind ; 3. A taste for fairness ; 4. Covenants without sword ; 5. Informational cascades and unpopular norms ; 6. The evolution of a fairness norm

Note: Erscheinungsjahr in Vorlageform:c 2005

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS PROLOGUE INDICATORS INTRODUCTION ICE VOLUME Glacial Moraines Shorelines Oxygen Isotopes Summary TEMPERATURE Mountaintop Temperatures Polar Temperatures Sea Surface Teiμperatures Continental Temperatures The Tropical Temperature Dilemma ARIDITY Precipitation Rock Varnish Dust ATMOSPHERIC GAS COMPOSITION Carbon Dioxide Methane Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Gases OCEANIC CHEMISTRY Trace Metals Carbon Isotopes RATE OF DEEP SEA VENTUATION CO3 Concentration Paleo pH Preservation Events CLOCKS INTRODUCTION THE RADIOCARBON CLOCK ANNUAL CLOCKS THE URANIUM-THORIUM CLOCK CLOCKS READING MORE THAN 50,000 YEARS THE POTASSIUM-ARGON CLOCK PLANETARY CLOCKS IN SITU PRODUCTION CLOCKS SUNDIALS RECORDS SETTING THE STAGE: 55 MILLION YEARS OF POLAR COOLING MILANKOVITCH CYCLES THE LAST 160,000 YEARS THE LAST TERMINATION DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS HEINRICH EVENTS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DANSGAARD-OESCHGER EVENTS AND HEINRICH EVENTS PHYSICS INTRODUCTION WATER VAPOR THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION FRESH WATER FLUXES MODE SWITCH TRIGGERS EPILOGUE BIBLIOGRAPHY PROBLEMS APPENDICES ∑CO2 and Alkalinity in the Sea What Drives Glacial Cycles? (Scientific American) The Great Ocean Conveyor (Oceanography)

Note: Univ. Kassel, Diss., 2009

Note: Contents: Preface. - Acknowledgments. - 1 How the Ocean-Atmosphere System Is Driven. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 The Amount of Energy Received by the Earth. - 1.3 Radiative Equilibrium Models. - 1.4 The Greenhouse Effect. - 1.5 Effects of Convection. - 1.6 Effects of Horizontal Gradients. - 1.7 Variability in Radiative Driving of the Earth. - 2 Transfer of Properties between Atmosphere and Ocean. - 2.1 Introduction. - 2.2 Contrasts in Properties of Ocean and Atmosphere. - 2.3 Momentum Transfer between Air and Sea, and the Atmosphere's Angular Momentum Balance. - 2.4 Dependence of Exchange Rates on Air-Sea Velocity, Temperature, and Humidity Differences. - 2.5 The Hydrological Cycle. - 2.6 The Heat Balance of the Ocean. - 2.7 Surface Density Changes and the Thermohaline Circulation of the Ocean. - 3 Properties of a Fluid at Rest. - 3.1 The Equation of State. - 3.2 Thermodynamic Variables. - 3.3 Values of Thermodynamic Quantities for the Ocean and Atmosphere. - 3.4 Phase Changes. - 3.5 Balance of Forces in a Fluid at Rest. - 3.6 Static Stability. - 3.7 Quantities Associated with Stability. - 3.8 Stability of a Saturated Atmosphere. - 3.9 Graphical Representation of Vertical Soundings. - 4 Equations Satisfied by a Moving Fluid. - 4.1 Properties of a Material Element. - 4.2 Mass Conservation Equation. - 4.3 Balance for a Scalar Quantity like Salinity. - 4.4 The Internal Energy (or Heat) Equation. - 4.5 The Equation of Motion. - 4.6 Mechanical Energy Equation. - 4.7 Total Energy Equation. - 4.8 Bernoulli's Equation. - 4.9 Systematic Effects of Diffusion. - 4.10 Summary List of the Governing Equations. - 4.11 Boundary Conditions. - 4.12 A Coordinate System for Planetary Scale Motions. - 5 Adjustment under Gravity in a Nonrotating System. - 5.1 Introduction: Adjustment to Equilibrium. - 5.2 Perturbations from the Rest State for a Homogenous Inviscid Fluid. - 5.3 Surface Gravity Waves. - 5.4 Dispersion. - 5.5 Short-Wave and Long-Wave Approximations. - 5.6 Shallow-Water Equations Derived Using the Hydrostatic Approximation. - 5.7 Energetics of Shallow-Water Motion. - 5.8 Seiches and Tides in Channels and Gulfs. - 6 Adjustment under Gravity of a Density-Stratified Fluid. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 The Case of Two Superposed Fluids of Different Density. - 6.3 The Baroclinic Mode and the Rigid Lid Approximation. - 6.4 Adjustments within a Continuously Stratified Incompressible Fluid. - 6.5 Internal Gravity Waves. - 6.6 Dispersion Effects. - 6.7 Energetics of internal waves. - 6.8 Internal Waves Generated at a Horizontal Boundary. - 6.9 Effects on Boundary-Generated Waves of Variations of Buoyancy Frequency with Height. - 6.10 Free Waves in the Presence of Boundaries. - 6.11 Waves of Large Horizontal Scale: Normal Modes. - 6.12 An Example of Adjustment to Equilibrium in a Stratified Fluid. - 6.13 Resolution into Normal Modes for the Ocean. - 6.14 Adjustment to Equilibrium in a Stratified Compressible Fluid. - 6.15 Examples of Adjustment in a Compressible Atmosphere. - 6.16 Weak Dispersion of a Pulse. - 6.17 Isobaric Coordinates. - 6.18 The Vertically Integrated Perturbation Energy Equation in Isobaric Coordinates. - 7 Effects of Rotation. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 The Rossby Adjustment Problem. - 7.3 The Transients. - 7.4 Applicability, to the Rotating Earth. - 7.5 The Rossby Radius of Deformation. - 7.6 The Geostrophic Balance. - 7.7 Relative Geostrophic Currents: The Thermal Wind. - 7.8 Available Potential Energy. - 7.9 Circulation and Vorticity. - 7.10 Conservation of Potential Vorticity for a Shallow Homogeneous Layer. - 7.11 Circulation in a Stratified Fluid and Ertel's Potential Vorticity. - 7.12 Perturbation Forms of the Vorticity Equations in a Uniformly Rotating Fluid. - 7.13 Initialization of Fields for Numerical Prediction Schemes. - 8 Gravity Waves in a Rotating Fluid. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Effect of Rotation on Surface Gravity Waves: Poincare Waves. - 8.3 Dispersion Properties and Energetics of Poincare Waves. - 8.4 Vertically Propagating Internal Waves in a Rotating Fluid. - 8.5 Polarization Relations. - 8.6 Energetics. - 8.7 Waves Generated at a Horizontal Boundary. - 8.8 Mountain Waves. - 8.9 Effects of Variation of Properties with Height. - 8.10 Finite-Amplitude Topographic Effects. - 8.11 Dissipative Effects in the Upper Atmosphere. - 8.12 The Liouville-Green or WKBJ Approximation. - 8.13 Wave Interactions. - 8.14 The Internal Wave Spectrum in the Ocean. - 8.15 Wave Transport and Effects on the Mean Flow. - 8.16 Quasi-geostrophic Flow (f Plane): The Isallobaric Wind. - 9 Forced Motion. - 9.1 Introduction. - 9.2 Forcing Due to Surface Stress: Ekman Transport. - 9.3 Wind-Generated Inertial Oscillations in the Ocean Mixed Layer. - 9.4 Ekman Pumping. - 9.5 Bottom Friction: Velocity Structure of the Boundary Layer. - 9.6 The Laminar Ekman Layer. - 9.7 The Nocturnal Jet. - 9.8 Tide-Producing Forces. - 9.9 Effect of Atmospheric Pressure Variations and Wind on Barotropic Motion in the Sea: The Forced Shallow-Water Equation. - 9.10 Baroclinic Response of the Ocean to Wind Forcing: Use of Normal Modes. - 9.11 Response of the Ocean to a Moving Storm or Hurricane. - 9.12 Spin-Down by Bottom Friction. - 9.13 Buoyancy Forcing. - 9.14 Response to Stationary Forcing: A Barotropic Example. - 9.15 A Forced Baroclinic Vortex. - 9.16 Equilibration through Dissipative Effects. - 10 Effects of Side Boundaries. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Effects of Rotation on Seiches and Tides in Narrow Channels and Gulfs. - 10.3 Poincare Waves in a Uniform Channel of Arbitrary Width. - 10.4 Kelvin Waves. - 10.5 The Full Set of Modes for an Infinite Channel of Uniform Width. - 10.6 End Effects: Seiches and Tides in a Gulf That Is Not Narrow. - 10.7 Adjustment to Equilibrium in a Channel. - 10.8 Tides. - 10.9 Storm Surges on an Open Coastline: The Local Solution. - 10.10 Surges Moving along the Coast: Forced Kelvin Waves. - 10.11 Coastal Upwelling. - 10.12 Continental Shelf Waves. - 10.13 Coastally Trapped Waves. - 10.14 Eastern Boundary Currents. - 11. The Tropics. - 11.1 Introduction. - 11.2 Effects of Earth's Curvature: Shallow-Water Equations on the Sphere. - 11.3 Potential Vorticity for a Shallow Homogeneous Layer. - 11.4 The Equatorial Beta Plane. - 11.5 The Equatorial Kelvin Wave. - 11.6 Other Equatorially Trapped Waves. - 11.7 The Equatorial Waveguide: Gravity Waves. - 11.8 Planetary Waves and Quasi-geostrophic Motion. - 11.9 Baroclinic Motion near the Equator. - 11.10 Vertically Propagating Equatorial Waves. - 11.11 Adjustment under Gravity near the Equator. - 11.12 Transient Forced Motion. - 11.13 Potential Vorticity for Baroclinic Motion: The Steady Limit. - 11.14 Steady Forced Motion. - 11.15 The Tropical Circulation of the Atmosphere. - 11.16 Tropical Ocean Currents. - 12 Mid-latitudes. - 12.1 Introduction. - 12.2 The Mid-latitude Beta Plane. - 12.3 Planetary Waves. - 12.4 Spin-Up of the Ocean by an Applied Wind Stress. - 12.5 Steady Ocean Circulation. - 12.6 Western Boundary Currents. - 12.7 Vertical Propagation of Planetary Waves in a Medium at Rest. - 12.8 Nonlinear Quasi-geostrophic Flow in Three Dimensions. - 12.9 Small Disturbances on a Zonal Flow Varying with Latitude and Height. - 12.10 Deductions about Vertical Motion from the Quasi-geostrophic Equations. - 13 Instabilities, Fronts, and the General Circulation. - 13.1 Introduction. - 13.2 Free Waves in the Presence of a Horizontal Temperature Gradient. - 13.3 Baroclinic Instability: The Eady Problem. - 13.4 Baroclinic Instability: The Charney Problem. - 13.5 Necessary Conditions for Instability. - 13.6 Barotropic Instability. - 13.7 Eddies in the Ocean. - 13.8 Fronts. - 13.9 The Life Cycle of a Baroclinic Disturbance. - 13.10 General Circulation of the Atmosphere. - Appendix One Units and Their SI Equivalents. - Appendix Two Useful