ALBERT

Description: 'NASA is preparing to launch the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). This telescope will be larger than the Hubble Space Telescope, be launched on an Atlas missile rather than the Space Shuttle, have a segmented primary mirror, and be placed in a higher orbit. All these differences pose significant challenges.' This effort addresses the challenge of implementing an algorithm for aligning the segments of the primary mirror during the initial deployment that was designed by Philip Olivier and members of SOMTC (Space Optics Manufacturing Technology Center). The implementation was to be performed on the SIBOA (Systematic Image Based Optical Alignment) test bed. Unfortunately, hardware/software aspect concerning SIBOA and an extended time period for algorithm development prevented testing before the end of the study period. Properties of the digital camera were studied and understood, resulting in the current ability of selecting optimal settings regarding saturation. The study was successful in manually capturing several images of two stacked segments with various relative phases. These images can be used to calibrate the algorithm for future implementation. Currently the system is ready for testing.

Description: At the end of World War II Duane Deming, an internationally known economist enunciated what later came to be called "Total Quality Management" (TQM). The basic thrust of this economic theory called for companies and governments to identify their customers and to do whatever was necessary to meet their demands and to keep them satisfied. It also called for companies to compete internally. That is, they were to build products that competed with their own so that they were always improving. Unfortunately most U.S. corporations failed to heed this advice. Consequently, the Japanese who actively sought Deming's advice and instituted it in their corporate planning, built an economy that outstripped that of the U.S. for the next three to four decades. Only after U.S. corporations reorganized and fashioned joint ventures which incorporated the tenets of TQM with their Japanese competitors did they start to catch up. Other institutions such as the U.S. government and its agencies and schools face the same problem. While the power of the U.S. government is in no danger of being usurped, its agencies and schools face real problems which can be traced back to not heeding Deming's advice. For example, the public schools are facing real pressure from private schools and home school families because they are not meeting the needs of the general public, Likewise, NASA and other government agencies find themselves shortchanged in funding because they have failed to convince the general public that their missions are important. In an attempt to convince the general public that its science mission is both interesting and important, in 1998 the Science Directorate at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) instituted a new outreach effort using the interact to reach the general public as well as the students. They have called it 'Science@NASA'.

Description: The spectrum and light curve of the bright X-ray source CG X-1 in the field of the Circinus galaxy are reexamined. Previous analyses have concluded that the source is an accreting black hole of mass 〉 or approx. 50 solar masses although it has been noted that the light curve resembles that of an AM Herculis system. Here we show that the short period and an assumed main-sequence companion constrain the mass of the companion to less than 1 solar mass. Furthermore, a possible eclipse seen during one of the Chandra observations and a subsequent XMM-Newton observation constrain the mass of the compact object to less than 60 solar masses. If such a system lies in the Circinus galaxy, then the accreting object must either radiate anisotropically or strongly violate the Eddington limit. Even if the emission is beamed, then the companion star that intercepts this flux during eclipse will be driven out of thermal equilibrium and evaporate within approx. 10(exp 3) yr. We find that the observations cannot rule out an AM Herculis system in the Milky Way and that such a system can account for the variations seen in the light curve.

Description: NASA is preparing to launch the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). This telescope will be larger than the Hubble Space Telescope, be launched on an Atlas missile rather than the Space Shuttle, have a segmented primary mirror, and be placed in a higher orbit. All these differences pose significant challenges. This effort addresses the challenge of aligning the segments of the primary mirror during the initial deployment. The segments need to piston values aligned to within one tenth of a wavelength. The present study considers using a neuro-fuzzy model of the Fraunhofer diffraction theory. The intention of the current study was to experimentally verify the algorithm derived earlier. The experimental study was to be performed on the SIBOA (Systematic Image Based Optical Alignment) test bed. Unfortunately the hardware/software for SIBOA was not ready by the end of the study period. We did succeed in capturing several images of two stacked segments with various relative phases. These images can be used to calibrate the algorithm for future implementation. This effort is a continuation of prior work. The basic effort involves developing a closed loop control algorithm to phase a segmented mirror test bed (SIBOA). The control algorithm is based on a neuro-fuzzy model of SIBOA and incorporates nonlinear observers built from observer banks. This effort involves implementing the algorithm on the SIBOA test bed.

Description: Traditionally, study of the plasmasphere has involved terrestrial observation of local characteristics. Global modeling of the plasmasphere in such an observation regime made use of an ensemble of (sparse) local measurements. Recently, sensors aboard the IMAGE (Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration) satellite (in particular, the EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Imager) have created the potential for truly global study of the plasmasphere. IMAGE was launched in spring of 2000 in an orbit with apogee altitude 7.2 RE(Earth radii) and perigee altitude 1000 km. IMAGE's EUV sensor allows an external view of the distribution of cold plasma in the plasmasphere to be acquired. EUV is designed to image light emission at 30.4 nanometers, which is the emission wavelength of the He+ ion in the presence of solar radiation. He+ makes up approximately 15-20% of the plasma in the plasmasphere, thus imaging of He+ enables determination of plasma distribution. The EUV instrument provides a 90 deg by 84 deg field of view which is imaged as an equally spaced 150x140 pixel array on a spherical imaging surface. The EUV produces an image approximately every 10 minutes when the sensor is operating. Since EUV images contain line-of-sight integrations of plasma distributions, they do not directly express equatorial plane density (which would enable comparison of observed plasma distributions with predictions from models). Furthermore, the plasma density at any point in three-space is not known. The goal of our work was development of a technique that can enable plasma density to be determined throughout three-space. Our approach to creation of a three-space representation of the plasma distribution involves disintegrating the EUV lines of sight to form a volumetric map of plasma densities.

Description: The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) is studying a wide range of astronomical problems in the 905-1187 Angstrom wavelength region through the use of high resolution spectroscopy. The FUSE bandpass forms a nearly optimal complement to the spectral coverage provided by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), which extends down to approximately 1170 Angstroms. The photoionization threshold of atomic hydrogen (911 Angstroms) sets a natural short-wavelength limit for the FUV. FUSE was launched in June 1999 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Delta II rocket into a 768 km circular orbit. Scientific observations started later that year. This spectral region is extremely rich in spectral diagnostics of astrophysical gases over a wide range of temperatures (100 K to over 10 million K). Important strong spectral lines in this wavelength range include those of neutral hydrogen, deuterium, nitrogen, oxygen, and argon (H I, D I, N I, O I, and Ar I), molecular hydrogen (H2), five-times ionized oxygen (O VI), and several ionization states of sulfur (S III - S VI). These elements are essential for understanding the origin and evolution of the chemical elements, the formation of stars and our Solar System, and the structure of galaxies, including our Milky Way. FUSE is one of NASA's Explorer missions and a cooperative project of NASA and the space agencies of Canada and France. These missions are smaller, more scientifically focused missions than the larger observatories, like Hubble and Chandra. FUSE was designed, built and operated for NASA by the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Johns Hopkins University. Hundreds of astronomers world-wide are using FUSE for a wide range of scientific research. Some of the important scientific discoveries from the first two years of the mission are described.

Description: We present results of new ASCA observations of the low-luminosity AGN (LLAGN) NGC 4579 obtained in 1998 December 18 and 28, and we report on detection of variability of an iron K emission line. The X-ray luminosities in the 2-10 keV band for the two observations are nearly identical, L(sub X) approximately = 2 x 10(exp 4l) ergs/s, but they are approximately 35% larger than that measured in 1995 July by Terashima et al. (1998). An Fe K emission line is detected at 6.39 +/- 0.09 keV (source rest frame) which is lower than the line energy 6.73(sup +0.13, sub -0.12) keV in the 1995 observation. If we fit the Fe lines with a blend of two Gaussians centered at 6.4 keV and 6.73 KeV, the intensity of the 6.7 keV line decreased, while the intensity of the 6.4 keV line increased, within an interval of 3.5 years. This variability rules out thermal plasmas in the host galaxy as the origin of the ionized Fe line in this LLAGN. The detection and variability of the 6.4 keV line suggest that an optically thick standard accretion disk is present and subtends a large solid angle viewed from the nucleus at the Eddington ratio of L(sub Bol)/L(sub Eddington) approximately 2 x 10(exp -3) (Ho 1999). A broad disk-line profile is not clearly seen and the structure of the innermost part of accretion disk remains unclear.

Description: The bright variable star theta(sup 2) Tau was monitored with the star camera on the Wide-Field Infrared Explorer satellite. Twelve independent frequencies were detected down to the 0.5 mmag amplitude level. Their reality was investigated by searching for them using two different algorithms and by some internal checks: both procedures strengthened our confidence in the results. All the frequencies are in the range 10.8-14.6 cd(exp -1). The histogram of the frequency spacings shows that 81% are below 1.8 d; rotation may thus play a role in the mode excitation. The fundamental radial mode is not observed, although it is expected to occur in a region where the noise level is very low (55 mu mag). The rms residual is about two times lower than that usually obtained from successful groundbased multisite campaigns. The comparison of the results of previous campaigns with the new ones establishes the amplitude variability of some modes.

Description: Ground-based differential photometry is limited to a precision of order 10(exp -3) because of atmospheric effects. A space-based photometer should be limited only by the inherent instrument precision and shot noise. Laboratory tests have shown that a precision of order 10-5 is achievable with commercially available charged coupled devices (CCDs). We have proposed to take this one step further by performing measurements at a telescope using a Wollaston prism as a beam splitter First-order atmospheric effects (e.g., extinction) will appear to be identical in the two images of each star formed by the prism and will be removed in the data analysis. This arrangement can determine the precision that is achievable under the influence of second-order atmospheric effects (e.g., variable point-spread function (PSF) from seeing). These telescopic observations will thus provide a lower limit to the precision that can be realized by a space-based differential photometer.

Description: Analysis of the images produced by the first version (V1) of the Vulcan photometer indicated that two major sources of noise were sky brightness and image motion. To reduce the effect of the sky brightness, a second version (V2) with a longer focal length and a larger format detector was developed and tested. The first version consisted of 15-centimeter (cm) focal length, F/1.5 Aerojet Delft reconnaissance lens, and a 2048 x 2048 format front-illuminated charged coupled device (CCD) with 9 microns micropixels (Mpixels). The second version used a 30-cm focal length, F/2.5 Kodak AeroEktar lens, and a 4096 x 4096 format CCD with 9 micro pixels. Both have a 49-square-degree field of view (FOV) but the area of the sky subtended by each pixel in the V2 version is one-fourth that of the V1 version. This modification substantially reduces the shot noise due to the sky background and allows fainter stars to be monitored for planetary transits. To remove the data gap and consequent signal-level change caused by flipping the photometer around the declination axis and to reduce image movement on the detector, several other modifications were incorporated. These include modifying the mount and stiffening the photometer and autoguider structures to reduce flexure. This paper compares the performance characteristics of each photometer and discusses tests to identify sources of systematic noise.

Description: This report summarizes the technical parameters and the technical staff of the Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) system at the fundamental station Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO). It also gives an overview about the VLBI activities during the previous year. The outlook lists the outstanding tasks to improve the performance of GGAO.

Description: The joint airport weather studies (JAWS) project is discussed. The major objectives of the JAWS Project are a fundamental description of the phenomenon, a determination of the hazard potential and a definition of a protection and warning system, all of which are relative to low level wind shear. Aspects of the low level wind shear phenomenon. The principal focus, however, is the microburst. The microburst is fundamentally a rather simple atmospheric flow. It is a downdraft that, upon approaching the surface, spreads out horizontally, producing a diverging radial flow in all directions. For any direction that an aircraft flies through the microburst, it will first encounter increasing head winds; then the remnants of the downdraft; and then, increasing tail wind.

Description: A heavily instrumented F-106B aircraft was flown in thunderstorms to gather data for characterizing lightning at aircraft operating altitudes. Conventional weather finding techniques are supplemented with UHF lightning mapping radar to select the most active storm cells and the most likely altitude for obtaining direct lightning strikes to the airplane. One hundred seventy-six strikes were obtained in a 3 year period, mostly at an altitude of above 25,000 feet.

Description: A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Description: Marked surface inversions occur most frequently in dry continental climates, where low atmospheric humidity allows heat transfer by long wave thermal radiation. In the northern latitudes, surface inversions reach their maximum intensity during the winter, when the incoming Sun's radiation is negligible and radiative cooling is dominant during the long nights. During winter, air mass boundaries are sharp, which causes formation of marked surface inversions. The existence of these inversions and sharp boundaries increase the risk of wind shear. The information should refer to marked inversions exceeding a temperature difference of 10 deg C up to 1000 feet. The need to determine the temperature range over which he information is operationally needed and the magnitude of the inversion required before a notification to pilots prior to departure is warranted are outlined.

Description: The Gust Gradient Program is a data intensive effort involving tripple Doppler radar, a surface weather station mesonet and other aircraft. The Joint Airport Weather Studies was utilized to gain additional data. The data were used to fill in the gap in turbulence modeling.

Description: The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

Description: Recommendations based on need, cost, and achievement of flight safety are offered, and the re-evaluation of weather parameters needed for safe landing operations that lead to reliable and consistent automated observation capabilities are considered.

Description: The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

Description: The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Description: Rainfall characteristics using data from dense recording raingage networks is reviewed. Data from such networks have quantified temporal and spatial rainfall distributions, and have supplied specialized information about local and orographic effects. The natural variability, temporally and spatially, for annual, seasonal, monthly, and individual events is treated. Especially important are the spatial variations of precipitation as a function of synoptic type, precipitation type, amount, and duration. Results from dense raingage networks in Illinois, and some data from other climatic regions is also treated.

Description: A 10 channel scanning radiometer, built as a prototype for the coastal zone color scanner on the Nimbus 7 satellite, was flown on a high altitude aircraft during a Gymnodium breve bloom along the west coast of Florida. The remotely measured ocean color imagery shows what is probably the patchy structure of a G. breve bloom extending over a 60 km by 100 km area. This conclusion is based on visual inspection of bathymetry to infer bottom reflection trends and on a single growth truth measurement of B G. breve obtained the previous day. The image shows coherent blooms which extend scales up to 60 km in length.

Description: The snowmelt-runoff model developed for two small central European watersheds simulate daily streamflow on the 228 sq km Dinwoody Creek basin in Wyoming, using snowcover extent for LANDSAT and conventionally measured temperature and precipitation. For the six-month snowmelt seasons of 1976 and 1974, the simulated seasonal runoff volumes were within 5 and 1%, respectively, of the measured runoff. Also the daily fluctuations of discharge were simulated to a high degree by the model. Thus far the limiting basin size for applying the model has not been reached, and improvements can be expected if the hydrometeorological data can be obtained from a station inside the basin. LANDSAT provides an efficient way to obtain the critical snowcover input parameter required by the model.

Description: A large scale numerical time-dependent model of sea ice that takes into account the heat fluxes in and out of the ice, the seasonal occurrence of snow, and ice motions was used in an experiment to determine the response of the Arctic Ocean ice pack to a warming of the atmosphere. The degree of warming specified is that expected for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide with its associated greenhouse effect, a condition that could occur before the middle of the next century. The results of three 5-year simulations with a warmer atmosphere and varied boundary conditions were: (1) that in the face of a 5 K surface atmospheric temperature increase the ice pack disappeared completely in August and September but reformed in the central Arctic Ocean in mid fall; (2) that the simulations were moderately dependence on assumptions concerning cloud cover; and (3) that even when atmospheric temperature increases of 6-9 K were combined with an order-of-magnitude increase in the upward heat flux from the ocean, the ice still appeared in winter. It should be noted that a year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean has apparently not existed for a million years or more.

Description: During the summer of 1977, fire totaled 44 sq km of tundra vegetation according to measurements using LANDSAT imagery. Based on the experience gained from analysis of this fire using ground observations, satellite imagery, and topographic maps, it appears that natural drainages form effective fire breaks on the subdued relief of the Arctic coastal plain and northern foothills. It is confirmed that the intensity of the fire is related to vegetation type and to the moisture content of the organic rich soils.

Description: The geostationary and polar satellites comprising the current operational system are discussed. The data acquisition capabilities of both satellite types and their complementary functions are reviewed. The advanced very high resolution radiometer on the TIROS N satellites is particularly addressed along with the imaging and atmospheric sounding instrumentation aboard the GOES satellites. The dissemination of the satellite data to the prospective users is also discussed.

Description: Snow accumulation and depletion at specific locations can be monitored from space by observing related variations in microwave brightness temperatures. Using vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures from the Nimbus 6 electrically scanning microwave radiometer, a discriminant function can be used to separate snow from no snow areas and map snowcovered area on a continental basis. For dry snow conditions on the Canadian high plains, significant relationships between snow depth or water equivalent and microwave brightness temperature were developed which could permit remote determination of these snow properties after acquisition of a wider range of data. The presence of melt water in the snowpack causes a marked increase in brightness temperature which can be used to predict snowpack priming and timing of runoff. As the resolutions of satellite microwave sensors improve the application of these results to snow hydrology problems should increase.

Description: Methods using snowcovered area to update seasonal forecasts as snowmelt progresses are also being used in quasi-operational situations. The input of snowcovered area to snowmelt models for short term perdictions was attempted in two ways; namely, the modification of existing hydrologic models and/or the use of models that were specifically designed to use snowcovered area. A daily snowmelt runoff model was used with LANDSAT data to simulate discharge on remote basins in the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming. Daily predicted and actual flows compare closely, and, summarized over the entire snowmelt season (April 1 - September 30), the average difference is only three percent. The model and snowcovered area data are currently being tested on additional watersheds to determine the method's transferability.

Description: Presumably caused by lightning, a large fire occurred due east of Point Lay several kilometers southwest of the Kokolik River, the farthest north a fire was ever fought by Bureau of Land Management personnel in Alaska. The progress and area extent of the fire were determined by analysis of LANDSAT MSS band 5 and 7 imagery. Low altitude observations from helicopter showed the fire burned a range of vegetation and relief types which included low polygonized and upland tussock tundras. The burned area appeared wetter on the surface than the unburned area, due to a lack of moisture absorbing organic matter and the possible release of moisture from the deeper thawed zone. Suggestions for future investigations of the effects of fire on tundra and permafrost terrains are discussed.

Description: Programs for the development and operation of meteorological satellites from the TIROS 1 satellite and the establishment of NASA through the 1960's are described. The technical problems confronted in the development of the early satellite systems are discussed in addition to issues in international involvement and program support. The TIROS and Nimbus series satellites are primarily addressed.

Description: By using the most complete available records of direct beam radiation and volcanic eruptions, an historical analysis of the role of the latter in modulating the former was made. A very simple fallout and dispersion model was applied to the historical chronology of explosive eruptions. The resulting time series explains about 77 percent of the radiation variance, as well as suggests that tropical and subpolar eruptions are more important than mid-latitude eruptions in their impact on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. The simpler climatic models indicate that past hemispheric temperature can be stimulated very well with volcanic and CO2 inputs and suggest that climate forecasting will also require volcano forecasting. There is some evidence that this is possible some years in advance.

Description: Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Description: Examples of the use of geostationary satellites in meteorology are given. Studies of the rate of change of cumulus clouds and cloud systems and wind parameter determination from cloud motions are reviewed. Computer processed imagery products are also discussed.

Description: The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is described with particular emphasis on the military applications of METSAT data. Satellite operational support, data processing and image quality requirements are discussed.

Description: A historical overview of the pioneer projects for the development of meteorological satellites is given. In addition, the parallel development of the responsible space agencies and panels is addressed. The Vanguard 2 satellite, the first Earth radiation experiment, and the vidicon equipped TIROS-1 satellite are discussed.

Description: A brief review of the effects of climate and weather on the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruptions and the subsequent dispersion of ash and gases and the reciprocal influences of the eruptions on climate and climatology is presented. The effects of mesoscale destruction of snow fields and vegetation, a revised mountain profile, and ash deposits are addressed along with impacts on hemispheric climate and disruption of normal climatological observations, in the areas directly affected by the explosions and ashfall. Environmental and economic consequences are also considered.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: Geographic coverage frequency and geographic shot density for a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind velocity measuring system are measured. The equations of motion of the light path on the ground were derived and a computer program devised to compute shot density and coverage frequency by latitude-longitude sections. The equations for the coverage boundaries were derived and a computer program developed to plot these boundaries, thus making it possible, after an application of a map coloring algorithm, to actually see the areas of multiple coverage. A theoretical cross-swath shot density function that gives close approximations in certain cases was also derived. This information should aid in the design of an efficient data-processing system for the Doppler lidar.

Description: A block diagram of the joint airport weather studies program is presented. Background leading to the development of the program is reviewed. Basic studies, aircraft performance, and detection and warning techniques used to develop fine scale structure of thunderstorm dynamics and kinematics in the vicinity of a major airport; effect of thunderstorm low level wind shear on aircraft performance; and development of real time testing of flow level wind shear detection and warning techniques and displays are described.

Description: The prototype regional observation and forecast system (PROFS) outputs are demonstrated, functional design specifications to be used to procure and implement operational systems are outlined. Advanced candidate technologies are evaluated as an integral part of the process that leads to these outputs. Evaluation insures that future weather service systems will contain the optimum mix of technologies to be most cost effective in reducing the annual losses and deaths that are directly attributed to severe weather.

Description: The icing environment at altitudes below 10,000 feet were studied. The following questions are asked, are: (1) existing aircraft certification criteria applicable; (2) too stringent on icing for helos; (3) based on accurate data; (4) appropriate for low (10,000 ft) altitudes? The research plan is outlined: review historical icing data, obtain new measurements, collect modern icing data from other groups, and recommend LWC, OAT, and MVD criteria for helicopters. Estimated accuracies and known sources of error are included. It is concluded that the net effect of possible sources of error of both signs is uncertain.

Description: Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

Description: Doppler radar measurements of an intense wind shear occurance are discussed. The data suggest the presence of an incredibly strong low level jet outflow component of the microburst event, reaching 60 knots only 50 meters above the surface. Evidence also suggests that microbursts more typically occur in very weak thunderstorms that have hardly reached thunderstorm stage.

Description: The phenomenology of one class of strong thunderstorm downdrafts, microbursts, is described. Several aircraft accidents are analyzed in which a microburst was involved and a concept for an early warning wind shear sensor is presented.

Description: A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Description: A clear air turbulence (CAT) flight test to evaluate and test four different sensors in the detection and measuring of CAT and other meteorological targets that relate to turbulence is discussed. The primary types of CAT investigated were mountain wave CAT, jetstream CAT, CAT in cirrus clouds, and CAT in frontal wind shears, troughs, and ridges. The sensors included the CO2 pulsed Doppler lidar and three radiometers. One of the radiometers, at a frequency of 55.5 GHz, looked at atmospheric temperature structure. Another, at a frequency of 180.1 GHz, looked at atmospheric water vapor and investigated the feasibility of measuring at the microwave frequency the turbulence features seen in the infrared (IR) frequencies. An IR radiometer at 27 to 33 microns was the fourth sensor. This last device and the temperature structure radiometer worked well at all flight levels.

Description: The development of methods for the short range forecasting of visibility and ceiling conditions is discussed. Short range forecasts of one hour or less (5 or 30 minutes), immediately after a series of local observations can be expected to be more accurate and reliable than any forecast of more than one hour. These forecasts can be accomplished by the operational implementation of fully automated aviation observation systems and the utilization of statistical techniques such as the Generalized Equivalent Markov model.

Description: Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Description: The operational designs and performance capabilities of ground-based and airborne lightning detection systems are reviewed. The airborne Stormscope system is described and compared with onboard radar and the lightning detection and ranging system (LDAR). Two examples of difference-in-time-of-arrival systems for detecting spherics from discharges in electrified clouds are described: (1) The LDAR system and (2) Taylor's lightning mapping system. Next, an interferometric system adapted to lightning location is discussed. Finally, systems that are based upon crossed-loop magnetic direction finding principles but which have been refined and improved to accurately locate lightning discharges to ground are reviewed.

Description: The phenomenology of lightning and lightning measurement techniques are briefly examined with a particular reference to aeronautics. Developments made in airborne and satellite detection methods are reported. NASA research efforts are outlined which cover topics including in-situ measurements, design factors and protection, remote optical and radio frequency measurements, and space vehicle design.

Description: The ability of various types of remote probes to measure wind is discussed. Two important advantages over in-situ sensors are reported: (1) their ability to measure atmospheric parameters without disturbing the air flow; (2) their ability to scan through large volumes of the atmosphere with relative ease. Direct measurement sensors such as anemometers and wind vanes are categorized into two groups; active and passive. Acoustic radar, microwave radar, and lidar are included in the first group and the latter group is typified by the infrared radiometers.

Description: The problem of development of instrumentation for providing wind speed and direction information directly or indirectly to a pilot in the cockpit is considered. The pilots need for horizontal wind information at various stages of flight (i.e., at liftoff, in approach and departure corridors, and even in flight outside the terminal area) are emphasized.

Description: The basic reference material for gust design criteria are cited. The status of clear air turbulence meteorology (forecasting and detection) is discussed. The directions of further research technology is indicated.

Description: A list of icing instrumentation requirements are presented. Because of the Army's helicopter orientation, many of the suggestions are specific to rotary wing aircraft; however, some of the instrumentation are also suitable for general aviation aircraft.

Description: The types and usage categories of icing instrumentation are discussed. The state-of-the-art for the technology governing the use of icing instrumentation is reported with particular emphasis on ground based facilities for icing tests.

Description: The measurement of atmospheric turbulence is discussed in terms of a pilots viewpoint. Two areas of measurement are considered: frequency and severity of turbulence. Suggestions are given for helping the pilot solve the turbulence problem.

Description: An overview is given of the developmental status of aviation weather services. Particular attention is given to justifying the need for better, more reliable service. The accomplishments of several automatic weather stations are discussed.

Description: The dynamic and rapid growth of technology in the area of aviation meteorology research and development are described with emphasis on the measurement of hazardous weather phenomena. Aspects of both onboard instrumentation and ground based facilities are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness of in avoiding hazards due to atmospheric electricity and lightning. Methods of alleviating terminal are hazards such as fog, low visibility and ceilings are also described.

Description: Various aspects of aviation meteorology are discussed with respect to their relative effects on aircraft terminal operations. Existing data on turbulence and wind shear from aircraft and towers are summarized. The significance of obtaining more real time wind and temperature information is emphasized. The application and testing of various radiometer devices are also described. Airborne methods to indicate wind differences at flight altitude and at touchdown are reported.

Description: Three projects are suggested which could be done using the Doppler lidar. The first is a cooperative effort at BAO, the purpose of which is to check out instrumentation and contribute to boundary layer investigations at BAO. The second concerns unintended weather modification. Its purpose is to detect mechanisms by which regions of industry and urbanization modify weather. The cirrus cloud study proposes to characterize cirrus clouds by their lidar signal and to compare lidar and visually observed characteristics.

Description: General criteria for a flight test option are that: (1) there be a good opportunity for comparison with other measurement techniques; (2) the flow to be measured is of considerable scientific or practical interest; and (3) the airborne laser Doppler system is well suited to measure the required quantities. The requirement for comparison, i.e., ground truth, is particularly important because this is the first year of operation for the system. It is necessary to demonstrate that the system does actually measure the winds and compare the results with other methods to provide a check on the system error analysis. The uniqueness of the laser Doppler system precludes any direct comparison, but point measurements from tower mounted wind sensors and two dimensional fields obtained from radars with substantially different sampling volumes are quite useful.

Description: The experiment strives to improve understanding of the physics of convective precipitation. Major emphasis is placed on obtaining a good description of the whole convective precipitation system. A framework is presented within which single, significant, tractable problems are investigated.

Description: The objectives of the system are to provide the system operator with real time system performance check and to provide data recording of all SSMS data. Meteorologists are provided with real time indication of meteorological data measurements including aid for directing flight profiles in real time and aid for directing SSMS operations. A day-to-day feedback is provided to meteorologists, system operators, and flight crews for flight planning on subsequent flight tests days.

Description: The problem is to operate on two scalar fields to produce a vector field, to produce user products from the vector field, and to establish reliability of results. Data problems encountered include sparse measurements, irregular distribution, varying quality, imperfect orthogonality, aliasing due to sampling volume, and measurements not simultaneous. Desired algorithm characteristics, solution elements, and characteristics of the model are listed. The seven simulation elements, eight algorithm steps and the required user inputs are given.

Description: A group meeting was assembled to focus on the planning of specific experiments, to establish some priorities, identify interested scientists who would like to participate, establish any special requirements, make recommendations on data processing, and to prepare flight plan outlines. Since the number of convective storms in the CCOPE (Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment) field experiment area are limited to only a few days during the operational time period the flight plans must be designed with a hierarchy of abort experiments so that the easily identified and lowest probability events should take priority until their quota is filled.

Description: The development of pulsed and continuous wave Doppler lidars for atmospheric measurement is discussed. A description of how the lidar systems operate is presented. The scanning mode is also described.

Description: An interpretation of the Doppler lidar return is presented. Possible applications of the system to severe storm research are discussed. The present project schedule of the Doppler lidar system is outlined.

Description: Coherent Doppler lidar appears to hold great promise in contributing to the basic store of knowledge concerning flow field characteristics in the nonprecipitous regions surrounding severe storms. The Doppler lidar, through its ability to measure clear air returns, augments the conventional Doppler radar system, which is most useful in the precipitous regions of the storm. A brief description of the Doppler lidar severe storm measurement system is provided along with the technique to be used in performing the flow field measurements. The application of the lidar is addressed, and the planned measurement program is outlined.

Description: The Doppler lidar system is potentially a very powerful measurement system. Three areas concerning the system are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system to verify the results; (2) application of the system to agricultural burning in California central valley; and (3) oceanographic possibilities of the system.

Description: Doppler lidar measurements of phenomena associated with water clouds (such as aerosols) are discussed. The purpose of the measurements and details of executing the experiment are described.

Description: Four aspects of the Doppler lidar are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system; (2) design of the first field program; (3) potential areas of application; and (4) verification of Doppler lidar data by independent measurements.

Description: Areas of research which can be significantly aided by the Doppler lidar airborne system are described. The need for systematic development of the airborne Doppler lidar is discussed. The technology development associated with the systematic development of the system will have direct application to satellite systems for which the lidar also promises to be an effective instrument for atmospheric research.

Description: The potential application of the Doppler lidar measurements to the determination of material (e.g., water vapor) and energy budgets, momentum transports, etc., in the environment at all stages and in the development of convective clouds are discussed.

Description: The ability to map velocities over a large area on one side of the aircraft flight path offers a number of opportunities to elucidate scientific questions related to atmospheric dynamics. Several types of experiments which are possible are described.

Description: Calculation of eletric field vectors within and near an isolated thundercloud (which has a given volume charge distribution) is envisaged. The maximum field strength within the thundercloud is calculated. The effects of screening layers, both above and below the thundercloud may be investigated, as well time-dependent potential problem. The study can lead to a better understanding of the charge distributions in a thundercloud, which in turn may shed some light on the actual mechanism of charging of a thundercloud.

Description: Data of daily mean temperatures recorded at the Kennedy Center during the period of 1957-1977 were analyzed to forecast daily mean temperatures and their thirty-day moving averages for a period of ten to fifteen days in a given month. Since it is found that the standard deviation is linear in the mean, a logarithmic transformation of the data is used for finding an integrated moving average process IMA by the Box-Jenkins aproach. The first differences of the transformed data seem to fit a moving average model with parameter value 2, MA(2). The consideration of seasonality factor makes the fit worse.

Description: A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Description: Future developments in satellite meteorology are proposed and examined in the light of policy and funding changes.

Description: Atmospheric and surface fields produced from the TIROS N high resolution infrared sounder/microwave sounding unit data are discussed. The data were analyzed by direct physical inversion of the multispectral radiative transfer equation. Sea ice mapping and sea surface temperature determination are addressed.

Description: Some of the research opportunities that are available from geostationary satellite data, especially from MONEX during the Global Weather Experiment are described. In addition, the International Cloud Climatology Program is described and the use of satellite imagery in studying mesoscale convection complexes is discussed. Finally, information derived from satellite data on ocean winds is examined.

Description: The evidence that volcanic eruptions affect climate is reviewed. Single explosive volcanic eruptions cool the surface by about 0.3 C and warm the stratosphere by several degrees. Although these changes are of small magnitude, there have been several years in which these hemispheric average temperature changes were accompanied by severely abnormal weather. An example is 1816, the "year without summer" which followed the 1815 eruption of Tambora. In addition to statistical correlations between volcanoes and climate, a good theoretical understanding exists. The magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated following volcanic explosions agrees well with the observations. Volcanoes affect climate because volcanic particles in the atmosphere upset the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and infrared energy emitted by the Earth. These interactions can be observed. The most important ejecta from volcanoes is not volcanic ash but sulfur dioxide which converts into sulfuric acid droplets in the stratosphere. For an eruption with its explosive magnitude, Mount St. Helens injected surprisingly little sulfur into the stratosphere. The amount of sulfuric acid formed is much smaller than that observed following significant eruptions and is too small to create major climatic shifts. However, the Mount St. Helens eruption has provided an opportunity to measure many properties of volcanic debris not previously measured and has therefore been of significant value in improving our knowledge of the relations between volcanic activity and climate.

Description: The 89 s X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+09 was discovered during Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of SGR 1900+14 in 1996. Because of monitoring campaigns of SGR 1900+14, XTE J1906+09 was also monitored regularly in 1996 September, 1998 May-June, 1998 August-1999 July, and 2000 March-2001 January. A search for pulsations resulted in detections of only the two previously reported outbursts in 1996 September and 1998 August-September. Pulsed flux upper limits for the rest of the observations show that XTE J1906+09 is a transient X-ray pulsar and likely has a Be star companion. The RXTE all-sky monitor did not reveal XTE J1906+09. Pulse-timing analysis of the second outburst discovered a sinusoidal signature in the pulse frequencies that is likely produced by an orbital periastron passage. Fits to pulse phases using an orbital model and quadratic phase model have chi(exp 2) minima at orbital periods of 26-30 days for fixed mass functions of 5, 10, 15, and 20 solar masses. The pulse shape showed energy- and intensity-dependent variations. Pulse-phase spectroscopy quantified the energy-dependent variations. The phase-averaged spectrum used the pulse minimum spectrum as the background spectrum to eliminate effects from SGR 1900+14 and the Galactic ridge and was well fitted by an absorbed power law with a high-energy cutoff with column density N(sub H) = 6 +/- 1 x 10(exp 22)/sq cm, a photon index of 1.01 +/- 0.08, cutoff energy E(sub cut) = 11 +/- 1 keV, and e-folding energy E(sub fold) = 19 +/- 4 keV. Estimated 2-10 keV peak fluxes, corrected for contributions from the Galactic ridge and SGR 1900+14, are 6 x l0(exp -12) and 1.1 x 10(exp -10) ergs/sq cm/s for the 1996 and 1998 outbursts, respectively. XTE J1906+09 may be part of an unusual class of Be/X-ray binaries that do not lie on the general spin period versus orbital period correlation with the majority of Be/X-ray binaries.

Description: We present X-ray emission-line equivalent width images of the bright Galactic supernova remnant Cassiopeia A for the elements Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe using a 50,000 s observation with the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. The images essentially map the bulk of detectable ejecta of these elements over a wide range of surface brightnesses and show morphologies distinctly different from that of the broadband X-ray emission and the 4-6 keV continuum emission. The Si, S, Ar, and Ca maps, while different in turn from those of Fe, are similar to the distribution of fast optical ejecta knots in that they clearly delineate the X-ray counterpart of the northeast optical jet. Low surface brightness regions just outside the bright shell in the north and west are also shown to have strong line emission. The strong Fe emission is exterior to that of other elements in the east, as previously noted, but is generally coincident elsewhere. The projected interior has relatively little emission traced by high line equivalent widths.

Description: We report the discovery in archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data of a approx. 40 Hz quasi-periodic oscillation QPO) in the hard X-ray flux from the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105. The QPO is detected only in the hard X-ray band above approx. 13 keV and was discovered in observations in which the previously known 67 Hz QPO is present. The 40 Hz QPO has a typical rms amplitude of approx. 2% in the 13-27 keV band and a width of approx. 5.5 Hz (FWHM). We show that the 67 and 40 Hz QPOs are detected in the same observations in 1997 July and November. However, the QPO is not detected in observations from 1996 April, May, and June in which the 67 Hz QPO was first discovered. The frequency of the 67 Hz QPO is significantly higher in the 1997 observations by about 5% compared with the 1996 data. The identification of the 40 Hz QPO makes GRS 1915 + 105 the second black hole binary to show a pair of simultaneous high-frequency QPOs (the other being GRO J1655-40). The similarities between the properties of the 67 Hz QPO in GRS 1915+105 and the recently discovered 450 Hz QPO in GRO J1655-40 suggest that the pairs of frequencies in these systems may be produced by the same physical mechanism, with the frequency differences between the two being likely due to different black hole masses in the two systems. We discuss the implications of our result for the mass and spin of GRS 1915+105 as well as for models of X-ray variability in black holes and neutron stars.

Description: We map the average line-of-sight velocities of the X-ray-emitting mass in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A using measurements of the centroid of the Si-Healpha blend with the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. This 4 inch scale map confirms the broad trends noted in previous studies, namely, that the line-of-sight velocity scale is roughly 2000-3000 kilometers per second with relatively more blueshifted material in the southeastern region of the remnant than in the northwest; new details are that the northwestern region consists of two arcs, with the southernmost one representing the most redshifted X-ray-emitting material in Cas A. These results are consistent with contemporaneous results from XMM-Newton. The X-ray patterns resemble the complex velocity patterns measured at optical wavelengths for much denser ejecta, and they support the growing body of evidence that the explosion and subsequent evolution of Cas A were highly asymmetrical.

Description: We investigate the effect of pulsar polar cap (PC) heating produced by positrons returning from the upper pair formation front. Our calculations are based on a self-consistent treatment of the pair dynamics and the effect of electric field screening by the returning positrons. We calculate the resultant X-ray luminosities and discuss the dependence of the PC heating efficiencies on pulsar parameters, such as characteristic spin-down age, spin period, and surface magnetic field strength. In this study we concentrate on the regime where the pairs are produced in a magnetic field by curvature photons emitted by accelerating electrons. Our theoretical results are not in conflict with the available observational x-ray data and suggest that the effect of PC heating should significantly contribute to the thermal x-ray fluxes from middle-aged and old pulsars. The implications for current and future x-ray observations of pulsars are briefly outlined.

Description: We present a 2-10 keV ASCA (Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics) observation of the field around the soft gamma repeater SGR 1627-41. A quiescent X-ray source, whose position is consistent both with that of a recently discovered BeppoSAX X-ray source and with the Interplanetary Network localization for this soft gamma repeater, was detected in this observation. In 2-10 keV X-rays, the spectrum of the X-ray source may be fit equally well by a power-law, blackbody, or bremsstrahlung function, with unabsorbed flux equal to approximately 5 x 10(exp -12) ergs cm(exp -2) s(exp -1). We do not confirm a continuation of a fading trend in the flux, and we find no evidence for periodicity, both of which were noted in the earlier BeppoSAX observations.

Description: With the observation of low-energy radiation coming from the site of gamma-ray bursts in the hours to weeks after the initial gamma ray burst, it appears that astronomers have discovered a cosmological imprint made by the burster on its surroundings. This paper discusses the phenomenon of postburst emission in Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) gamma-ray bursts at energies usually associated with prompt emission. After summing up the background-subtracted signals from hundreds of bursts, it is found that tails out to hundreds of seconds after the trigger could be a common feature of events of a duration greater than 2 seconds, and perhaps of the shorter bursts at a lower and shorter-lived level. The tail component may be softer and seems independent of the duration (within the long-GRB sample) and brightness of the prompt burst emission. Some individual bursts have visible tails at gamma-ray energies, and the spectrum in a few cases differs from that of the prompt emission. For one of these bursts, GRB 991216, afterglow at lower energies was detected, which raised the possibility of seeing afterglow observations over large energy ranges using the next generation of GRB detectors in addition to sensitive space- or ground-based telescopes.

Description: We observe a slow-onset quiet-region filament eruption with the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh. This event occurred on 1999 April 18 and was likely the origin of a coronal mass ejection detected by SOHO at 08:30 UT on that day. In the EIT observation, one-half of the filament shows two stages of evolution: stage 1 is a slow, roughly constant upward movement at approximately 1 km/s lasting approximately 0.5 hr, and stage 2 is a rapid upward eruption at approximately 16 km/s occurring just before the filament disappears into interplanetary space. The other half of the filament shows little motion along the line of sight during the time of stage 1 but erupts along with the rest of the filament during stage 2. There is no obvious emission from the filament in the SXT observation until stage 2; at that time, an arcade of EUV and soft X-ray loops forms first at the central location of the filament and then expands outward along the length of the filament channel. A plot of EUV intensity versus time of the central portion of the filament (where the postflare loops initially form) shows a flat profile during stage 1 and a rapid upturn after the start of stage 2. This light curve is delayed from what would be expected if 'tether-cutting' reconnection in the core of the erupting region were responsible for the initiation of the eruption. Rather, these observations suggest that a loss of stability of the magnetic field holding the filament initiates the eruption, with reconnection in the core region occurring only as a by-product.

Description: The magnetic flux content of the Jovian magnetosphere is set by the internal dynamo, but those magnetic field lines are constantly being loaded by heavy ions at the orbit of lo and dragged inexorably outward by the centrifugal force. Vasyliunas has proposed a steady state reconnecting magnetospheric model that sheds plasma islands of zero net magnetic flux and returns nearly empty flux tubes to the inner magnetosphere. The Galileo observations indicate that beyond 40 Rj the current sheet begins to tear and beyond 50 Rj on the nightside explosively reconnects as the tearing site reaches the low density lobe region above and below the current sheet. Small events occur irregularly but on average about every 4 hours and large events about once a day. The magnetic flux reconnected in such events amounts up to about 70,000 Webers/sec and is sufficient to return the outwardly convected magnetic flux to the inner magnetosphere. Since this process releases plasmoids into the jovian tail, as do terrestrial substorms; since this process involves explosive reconnection across the current sheet on the nightside of the planet, as do terrestrial substorms; and since the process is a key in closing the circulation pattern of the magnetic and plasma flux, as it is in terrestrial substorms; we refer to these events as jovian substorms.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Description: A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Description: The Andre et al. (1976, 1978) third-order closure model, in which the time rate of change terms, the relaxation and rapid effects for pressure-related terms, and the clipping approximation are used along with the quasi-normal closure, is invoked in the study of turbulence in a cloudy layer that is radiatively cooled from above. A spurious oscillation whose greatest amplitude lies near the inversion is shown by analysis to arise from the mean gradient and buoyancy terms of the triple-moment equations. An attempt is made to damp the oscillation through the introduction of diffusion terms into the triple-moment equations. The results obtained are noted to be sensitive to the ad hoc eddy coefficient applied in the third-moment equations.

Description: Space-time mapping of VHF sources from four severe storms on June 19, 1980 reveals that lightning processes for cloud-to-ground (CG) and large intracloud (IC) flashes are confined to an altitude below about 10 km and closely associated with the central regions of high reflectivity. Another class of IC flashes produces a splattering of sources within the storms' main electrically active volumes and also within the large divergent wind canopy aloft. There is no apparent temporal association between the small high altitude IC flashes that occur almost continuously and the large IC and CG flashes that occur sporadically in the lower portions of storms.

Description: A variational principle for time dependent diffusion problems is presented and is demonstrated by applying it to simple seasonal climate models. Two cases are treated. The first, a North-Coakley-type model with constant properties, is used as a tutorial example for the application of the technique. For the second case, heat capacity and thermal conductivity are considered to be latitude dependent in order to treat the effects of land/ocean distribution on the seasonal temperature distribution over the earth. The variational equations are derived and approximate analytical solutions are developed which delineate the influences of the physical asymmetries of the hemispheres in producing an asymmetric annual cycle.

Description: Lorenz (1969) has considered the possibility that an atmospheric circulation pattern might recur, taking into account the definition of a pair of analogous flows or 'analogs'. The present investigation is concerned with a search of time series of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential heights for possible analogs. Attention is given to data and analysis procedure, analog quality, and error growth rates. The obtained results imply that the found analogs are not a useful tool for forecasting the evolution of the midlatitude flow on time scales of several days. It is pointed out, however, that the negative results should not be extended to other applications of analog forecasting.

Description: A series of experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of forecast skill to various data and data analysis techniques for the 0000 GMT case of January 21, 1979. These include the individual components of the FGGE observing system, the temperatures obtained with different satellite retrieval methods, and the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. It is found that NESS TIROS-N infrared retrievals seriously degrade a rawinsonde-only analysis over land, resulting in a poorer forecast over North America. Less degradation in the 72-hr forecast skill at sea level and some improvement at 500 mb is noted, relative to the control with TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method which utilizes a 6-hr forecast first guess. NESS VTPR oceanic retrievals lead to an improved forecast over North America when added to the control.

Description: An assessment is made of the extent to which polar filtering may seriously affect the skill of latitude-longitude NWP models, such as the U.S. Navy's NOGAPS, or the GLAS fourth-order model. The limited experiments which have been completed to date with the 4 x 5-deg, 9-level version of the latter model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects its forecasting skill very little, with only one exception in which the use of the PG filter significantly improved forecasting.

Description: The present investigation has as objective to take a detailed look at the intense squall line over Oklahoma on May 2-3, 1979, using GOES stereoscopy combined with GOES infrared data. The synoptic situation and data sources are considered along with the stereoscopically observed cloud top ascent rates. Cloud top observations of intense thunderstorms are discussed, taking into account a contouring technique, the interpretation of infrared cloud top temperature patterns, and small-scale structure and its variability. It is found that GOES IR cloud top temperatures grossly underestimate the actual cloud top height observed stereoscopically, especially for immature storms. It is difficult to define growing storms below about 10 km in the GOES infrared data.