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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Leveraging Green Power: Environmental Rules for Project Finance (2008)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2008, 3, art3 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Environmental policies of providers of international finance - namely the World Bank, export credit agencies, and Equator Principles banks - provide interesting cases within which to study the power of business not as only an input to the political process or as a constraint on politics, but also as a conduit for both state and non-state actors.This paper shows how targeting financial actors has allowed NGOs to transform their rather weak discursive power base into instrumental power over business actors in other sectors. NGOs have channeled their power through states, consumers, and financial institutions; this has allowed them to augment discursive power over their targets with additional indirect, yet more immediate, forms of structural and instrumental power. As a consequence of both direct and indirect NGO pressure, financial institutions have adopted environmental policies. This article posits a theoretical explanation of the underspecified power relationships in NGO strategies that allow NGOs to exploit weak links in commodity chains for their campaigns.This paper argues that financial institutions wield considerable structural power through their ability to control access to finance. It is particularly this power base which has made them prime targets for NGOs campaigning for the greening of infrastructure development projects. As a consequence of NGO pressure, financial institutions have adopted environmental policies which in turn have provided the World Bank and Equator banks with additional sources of discursive power.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Power of Socialization: Engaging the Diamond Industry in the Kimberley Process (2008)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2008, 3, art2 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Research on conflict in resource-rich countries suggests that resource extraction companies contribute to tension but not development. In recent times, public-private partnerships (PPPs) have flourished, in which set up regulation is not against business but in joint cooperation with corporate actors. Yet PPPs are criticized for serving business self-interest and increasing business power rather than the common good. The paper takes the Kimberley Process and the diamond industry as an example to examine the multi-faceted nature of business power when this PPP was negotiated. The core of the argument is that realist-informed perspectives about business power in PPPs and constructivist accounts emphasizing socialization and social learning processes only tell one part of the story. While demonstrating that the diamond industry acted as a both a socializing and socialized agent, the analysis of the different facets of power shows that structural and discursive power were crucial elements in making socialization happen in the first place.
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Power of Transnational Private Governance: Financialization and the IASB (2008)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2008, 3, art4 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This investigation of accounting standard setting as a case of business power in global governance links together three facets of power. First we examine the discursive power of international accounting standards in the ongoing process of financialization, which we break into two dynamics centered on profit and control. We argue that the selection of accounting paradigms does not concern measurement accuracy but is rather a choice of perspectives between finance and production when presenting economic reality as numbers. Drawing on evidence from the contestation between Rhenish capitalism and the financial perspective, we then explain why, despite the overwhelming structural power of finance, instrumental power exercised in political lobbying over accounting standards can still have considerable success.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Power of Business (2008)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2008, 3, art1 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The introduction to the special issue develops a systematic and theoretically grounded framework for assessing business power in global governance. It is shown that power is said to have shifted from the world of states to the world of business. However, in order to evaluate such a claim first a differentiation of power in its instrumental, structural, and discursive facets is necessary. It is furthermore explained that the strength of such a three-dimensional assessment is that it combines different levels of analysis and considers actor-specific and structural dimensions and their material and ideational sources. Following a short introduction to the more empirical articles is provided summarizing their commonalities and differences.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Other Side of the Coin: Conceptualizing the Relationship between Business and the State in the Age of Globalisation (2008)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2008, 3, art5 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The concluding article to the special issue critically reflects on arguments and analysis presented in the preceding articles. It argues that globalisation, new forms of private authority and the increased power of transnational business have not generally weakened the state, but rather advanced a business-oriented transformation of statehood. To understand this transformation the article first provides a very short overview of the state-globalisation debate. Subsequently, it deals more explicitly with the state theoretical debate. In particular, it brings together neo-Marxist and post-Weberian conceptualisations in order to address both the social nature of the state and the particular forms and processes by which it is interactively embedded in the economy and society. After an outline of the transformation of statehood and the strategic options for non-state actors, the article concludes with some critical remarks on the future of democratic politics.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Varieties of Capitalism and the Auto Industry's Environmental Initiatives: National Institutional Explanations for Firms' Motivations (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 1, art4 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The auto industry is usually considered to be a global industry. Yet the majority of passenger cars are still manufactured and sold in industrialised states where its largest firms are headquartered. The central claim made is that despite the auto industry being comprised of multinational corporations, there are clear national differences in the motivations firms cite for environmental initiatives. US firms are more focused on traditional material factors, especially market forces. However, German and Japanese firms are more focused on social concerns and internally-driven strategies. They have more normative, non-market rationales for their environmental initiatives. By analysing what firms themselves say motivates them to improve the environmental performance of their products, via a qualitative analysis of recent environmental reports by German, US and Japanese firms, as well as interviews conducted with key personnel, the conclusion reached is as follows. While the question of 'greenwashing' versus real commitment to reduce the environmental impact of the industry's products remains relevant, the institutional basis of capitalist relations in their home state (i.e. their home state's variety of capitalism) suggests different nationally appropriate and conducive paths to environmental commitments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Targeting Corporate Political Strategy: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. Accounting Industry (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 2, art1 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: By analyzing the interaction between a business firm and multiple government institutions (including a regulatory agency, an executive and a bicameral legislature), we develop predictions about how firms target their political strategies at different branches of government when seeking more favorable public policies. The core of our argument is that firms will target their resources at the institution that is 'pivotal' in the policy-making process. We develop a simple framework, drawing on the political science literature, which identifies pivotal institutions in different types of political environments. We find empirical support for our thesis in an analysis of how U.S. accounting firms shifted their political campaign contributions between the House and Senate in response to the threat of new regulations governing auditor independence during the 1990s.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://www.bepress.com/bap/vol9/iss2/art1
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Ownership Biases and FDI in China: Evidence from Two Provinces (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 1, art1 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Jiangsu and Zhejiang are of two of China's most prosperous and dynamic provinces. This paper first presents a factual account of two empirical phenomena: 1) FDI has played a more substantial role in the economic development of Jiangsu than in Zhejiang, and 2) ownership biases against domestic private firms in Jiangsu were more substantial than in Zhejiang. The paper hypothesizes that there is a connection between these two empirical phenomena. Specifically, ownership biases against domestic private firms increase preferences for FDI because FDI provides a measure of relative property rights security. Thus a biased domestic private firm has an incentive to move its assets and/or future growth opportunities to the foreign sector. The paper uses two private-sector surveys--one conducted in 1993 and the other in 2002--to provide an empirical test of this hypothesis. Our analysis shows, controlling for a variety of firm-level attributes and industry and regional characteristics, those private firms which perceive ownership biases to be more severe are more likely to form joint ventures with foreign firms.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An Obsolescing Bargain in Chad: Shifts in Leverage between the Government and the World Bank (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 2, art4 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper applies the insights of obsolescing bargaining theory to a situation in which a host country interacted with both multinational corporations and an international organization, the World Bank. Drawing on resource curse literature and the Rubinstein bargaining model, we demonstrate the continued usefulness of obsolescing bargaining theory by explaining why the World Bank had to renegotiate its initial bargain with Chad in the Chad-Cameroon Oil Pipeline Project. The paper explores how specific bargaining parameters changed over time in this case and suggests how resource curse dynamics and their impact on domestic politics might be particularly relevant for bargaining between host countries and international actors. The case study serves as a warning to international financial institutions and corporations alike with regard to the ways in which obsolescing bargains can arise in the contemporary global political-economy.
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Economic Inequality and Political Power: A Comparative Analysis of Argentina and Brazil (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 1, art3 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we analyze the distribution of pay and changing trends of inequality in Argentina and Brazil, illuminating the specific winners and losers, by region and by economic activity (sector). In both countries we find that inequality rose in the neoliberal period, but that it declined following the severe crises of neoliberal policy, in 1993 in Brazil and in late 2001 in Argentina. This period of post-neoliberalism is characterized in both countries by a decline in the economic weight of the financial sector and a recovery of the position of the civil service. In both countries, the rise in inequality leading to the crisis produced an increase in the relative position of the major metropolitan centers; this positional advantage also declined modestly in the post-crisis recovery period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Understanding Interest System Diversity: Health Interest Communities in the American States (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 2, art2 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Recent work suggests that the most fruitful approach to accounting for variations in interest system diversity of any type lies in understanding variations in interest system density (Lowery, Gray and Fellowes 2005). We build on this insight by examining the sources of variation in the substantive diversity of health interests in the American states, focusing on how the densities of several sub-guilds of health interest organizations vary in their responses to changes in the sizes of the constituencies that give rise to them and variations in the policy and political energy supporting their mobilization. We discuss the concept of interest system diversity in the first section of the paper, highlighting its multiple meanings and the limits of prior research. This is followed by a close empirical examination of 14 sub-guilds of state health interest organizations. We conclude by discussing the inherent difficulties of understanding interest system diversity.
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An "African" Gospel: American Evangelical Radio in West Africa, 1954-1970 (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art3 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: During the second half of the twentieth century, Christianity underwent an epochal transformation from a predominantly Western religion to a world religion largely defined by non-Western adherents in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Broadcast media, spearheaded by American evangelical missionaries, played an important role in the globalization of Christianity. After WWII, conservative Protestant missionaries from the United States established a ``far-flung global network" of radio stations around the world with the avowed purpose of proselytizing the entire globe. In Liberia, American missionaries organized Station ELWA, the first evangelical station in Africa. The medium of radio proved well suited to the ``universal" mission of American evangelicals, particularly after the expansion of worldwide ownership in transistor radios during the 1960s. Yet the success of missionary radio stations such as ELWA rested on an extensive process of translation into local customs and practices. Between 1954 and 1970, ELWA officials and workers constructed transmission platforms, political relations, language services, receiver distribution campaigns, and community networks. These constructs functioned as the crucial grids through which the ``universal" meaning of evangelicalism was produced at the grass-roots level. As the history of ELWA in Liberia makes clear, American evangelical broadcasters acquired converts only by adapting their gospel message to fit particular churches, cultures, and contexts across the globe. Localizing missionary radio required the appropriation of indigenous cultural capital, the transposition of national partners, and the active agency of audiences on the ground.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Who Rides the Storm? Political Institutions and Trade Adjustment (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 1, art2 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Both policymakers and scholars have expressed concern that trade has increased inequality in advanced industrialized countries (AICs). We argue that the impact of trade on inequality depends on the availability of public goods, such as educational opportunities, that allow displaced workers to upgrade their skills and adjust to trade. The provision of public goods, in turn, depends on political institutions: institutions that unify budgetary powers promote public-good spending while institutions that separate budgetary powers discourage it. Trade should thus increase inequality more (reduce inequality less) in countries with a high separation of budgetary powers. We test and find support for these hypotheses with a cross-sectional time-series analysis of fourteen AICs. Our results imply that trade can improve aggregate welfare without worsening economic inequities, but only if governments adopt complementary policies that facilitate human capital formation and labor-market adjustment.
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Trade Openness, Country Size and Economic Volatility: The Compensation Hypothesis Revisited (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 9.2007, 2, art3 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: A prominent variant of the compensation hypothesis rests on the premise that increased trade exposure heightens domestic economic volatility, prompting demands for compensation via generous systems of transfers and services. Economic theory suggests that because the expansion of international trade entails integration into larger, deeper, more stable markets, and may entail risk diversification, it may actually promote rather than reduce stability. By the same token, however, economic theory also suggests that smaller economies should experience greater levels of volatility than larger economies, and thus also greater levels of insecurity. The evidence presented here suggests that the level of domestic economic volatility in the developed economies, during the latter half of the twentieth century, may indeed have been driven by the size and depth of markets. And critically, for these countries international trade integration may have eased rather than accentuated domestic economic volatility.
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Food for the Masses (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art6 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Phyllis Thompson reviews Kenneth Kiple's A Movable Feast: Ten Millennia of Food Globalization.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    School of Zbigniew (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art5 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Daniel J. Sargent reviews Zbigniew Brzezinski's Second Chance.
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The ``Logic of the Air": Aviation and the Globalism of the ``American Century" (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art2 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: "The 'Logic of the Air': Aviation and the Globalism of the 'American Century' " examines the cultural history of aviation in relation to the rise of the United States as a world power. In the context of World War II, the so-called air age entailed new conceptions of American national identity and global responsibility. Aviation inspired internationalist visions of "one world" - a globe divided only by latitudes and longitudes, as depicted by the iconic logo of Pan American Airways. However, aviation also sustained the nationalist vision of an "American Century' defined by U.S. geopolitical, economic, and ideological power. The airplane promised to extend America's frontiers "to infinity," as Pan Am President Juan T. Trippe was fond of saying. Ultimately, aviation helped define a nationalist globalism that construed America's interests as the world's interests. The cultural "logic of the air" embodied the universalizing aspirations of American foreign policy, yet also signified what was exceptional about the United States; aviation both instantiated American empire and denied that it was such. The article traces this dynamic by examining both cultural representations of aviation and U.S. international aviation policy.
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Power, Modernity and Traditional Cultures (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art4 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: A fable and a dream about the intersection of global and local culture.
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Contradictions of Techno-Nationalism and Techno-Globalism: A Historical Perspective (2007)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    New global studies 1.2007, 1, art1 
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    ISSN: 1940-0004
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Techno-nationalism and techno-globalism are descriptive and prescriptive categories for understanding the impact of technology on society and vice versa. They reflect the underlying assumptions made by analysts of the place of technology in the world, and denote ideologies, rather than technological policies or realities. They also help us to realize that standard accounts of the nation and globalization are not as securely based as they appear. Indeed, nations and states are important in ways techno-nationalism does not capture, and the international and global dimension is crucial in ways which that techno-globalism overlooks. Yet an analysis of both terms yields building blocks to a more sophisticated appreciation of the linkages between the nation, technological innovation and globalization.
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Government-Business Relations in the Construction of Mercosur (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 1, art3 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Democratic consolidation was the top priority of re-democratized Argentina and Brazil. Regional integration was also part of this goal from two perspectives: from the outside, through a treaty that diminished the scope for political manoeuvring by the military and increased international support for the incumbent administrations, and; from within, through encouragement of a proactive role for business in integration that would give it democratic legitimacy, while, at the same time, exercising democratic practices. Argentine and Brazilian political classes expected to combine these two aspects but soon had to face business reluctance. Government-business relations in the construction of Mercosur reflected government attempts to balance the trade-off between the approaches from without and from within. Although business was largely excluded from the strategic formulation of integration, in a democratic context, governments have to accommodate societal interests. This occurred through a significant overlap between powerful business interests and the executive's plans. The achievement of integration helped consolidate democracy and the choices made by political elites drove forward the democratic process.
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  • 21
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Does Firm Size Matter? Analyzing Business Lobbying in the United States (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 2, art4 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In the study of corporate political activity in the United States, scholars have consistently relied on samples comprised entirely or principally of large firms. While scholars have raised the issue of bias in these samples, there have been no systematic examinations of the consequences for causal inference. We address this issue directly by comparing the results of comprehensive models that examine corporate lobbying using both large-firm and randomly-generated samples. We find that while there are some notable differences, they are certainly not so large as to lead us to question fundamentally the results of decades of scholarship. In short, the results generated using a random sample lead to causal inferences largely consistent with those in the theoretical and empirical literature. In particular, firms' resources and interactions with government condition both their decisions to lobby and the level of their activity.
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  • 22
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    Electronic Resource
    Trade Openness and Preferences for Redistribution: A Cross-National Assessment of the Compensation Hypothesis (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 2, art1 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Compensation hypothesis, which has established a link between trade openness of countries and levels of government spending, has been widely accepted in the literature on trade policy and international globalization. However, the nature of the distribution effects produced by trade is likely to determine the existence of more or less redistribution demands from the median voter, and therefore government growth. In this paper I hypothesize that the effects of trade openness on redistribution demands are not homogeneous between countries, and I argue that they depend both on the type-of-factor endowment of the economy and the size of the sectors more likely to be affected by trade. I test this hypothesis with ISSP data for 23 countries, both with a country level and an individual level analysis. The results show that redistribution demands issued from trade openness of the median voter of a country are largely conditional on GDP per capita and size of potential loser sectors such as manufacturing: while trade has a negative effect on pro-redistribution preferences in "poor" and/or in "low manufacturing" countries; it positively affects pro-redistribution preferences in "rich" and/or in "high manufacturing" countries. Additionally, I empirically observe that the size of the loser sector plays a more important mediating role than the type-of-factor endowment of the economy.
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  • 23
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    Strategic Responses to Deregulation and Their Performance Implications in the U.S. Airline Industry (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 2, art2 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This study examines the relationships between deregulation, business strategy (low cost, differentiation, and scope), size, and firm performance in the U.S. airline industry based on archival data for the Major, National, and Large Regional air carriers in the U.S. from 1972 to 1995. Cross-sectional time series regression analysis shows that deregulation had a significant impact on the strategic choices made by airlines. Results also support a significant relationship between business strategy and firm performance. Further, the study found that firm size moderates the environment-business strategy relationship and the business strategy-firm performance relationship, thereby supporting the salience of firm size as a contingency variable in strategy studies.
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  • 24
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    Direct Targeting as an NGO Political Strategy: Examining Private Authority Regimes in the Forestry Sector (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 3, art1 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In recent years, International Political Economy literature on "politics beyond state" has emphasized the role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in broader policy processes, both national and international. In addition to their impact on states, NGOs influence the policies of non-state actors such as firms via public and private politics. Dissatisfied with the progress firms have made in response to public regulation, NGOs have sponsored private authority regimes in several issue areas and pushed firms to participate in them. Across the world, the contest between NGOs and firms has provoked substantial behavioral and programmatic change--including widespread participation in these private authority regimes--among firms seeking to escape NGO pressures. Using firm-level data, this paper examines why direct targeting has not led firms in the U.S. forest products sector to participate in an NGO-sponsored private authority regime, the Forest Stewardship Council. This global regime has been adopted widely in Europe, but U.S.-based forestry firms have tended to favor a domestic industry-sponsored regime, the Sustainable Forestry Initiative. Our analysis suggests that the desire of firms to maintain control over their institutional environment in light of hostile relations with NGOs has led US-based firms to favor the Sustainable Forestry Initiative.
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    The Corporate Context of Lobbying Activity (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 1, art1 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Despite extensive research on political activity on the part of corporations, clear and consistent findings remain elusive. We identify three reasons for this failure. First, most of the empirical literature on corporate political activity simply studies the wrong phenomena by examining political action committees rather than lobbying more generally. Second, the literature studies an excessively narrow sample of organizations that might engage in lobbying, focusing almost always on extremely large corporations, which inevitably attenuates variance on many of the variables hypothesized to influence engagement in political activity. And third, prior work is rarely attentive to the diversity of corporate activities, narrowly conceptualizing vital aspects of the business context that might influence decisions to engage in political activity. Based on this critique, we develop and test new models of corporate political activity, finding that the diversity of the economic context within which firms work and firm size matter a great deal, if in ways somewhat different from those reported in prior work.
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    Institutional Origins of Unemployment Compensation: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing World, 1946-2000 (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 1, art2 
    Details
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Why do some countries institutionalize a social program compensating the unemployed while others do not? My main argument is that the choice to have an unemployment insurance program is a function of 1) the distribution of unemployment risks within a country and 2) political processes through which demands for insurance are realized. The distribution of industrial-specific risks and workers' employment status are the driving force in shaping workers' demands. In developing countries, these demands are more likely to be realized under democratic regimes. An event history model for 102 developing countries from 1946 to 2000 is used to test the arguments.
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    Ownership Structure and Corporate Diversification (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 1, art4 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the motivation and impact of corporate diversification in Chinese listed firms. We find that in local government owned-firms there is a non-linear relationship between the level of firm diversification and state ownership. As state ownership increases from zero, the level of diversification decreases. After state ownership reaches a certain level, the level of diversification increases as state ownership increases. There is no evidence that ownership is related to corporate diversification in non-state-owned firms or central government-owned firms. We also document that diversification is negatively related to firm performance in local government-owned firms. However, there is no evidence that diversification is negatively related to the firm performance in non-state-owned firms or central government-owned firms. Our findings suggest that agency problems are responsible for local government owned-firms taking value-reducing diversification strategies.
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    Innovation-Based Industrial Policy in Emerging Economies? The Case of Israel's IT Industry (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 3, art3 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In the last decade, few countries have figured prominently as cases of late-late developers that achieved worldwide success with their Information Technology (IT) industries. This paper focuses on the Israeli case and argues that uniquely in that group, and in contradiction to the model proposed by late development theories, Israel's competitive advantage in the IT industries, is in Research and Development (R&D). The paper's main arguments are that (a) the declared aim of Israel's industrial policy has been to develop a "science-based" industrial system similar to what we see in Israel today; (b) however, these policies, focused on diffusion and not on creation of capabilities, were successful only because of the existence of an already sophisticated and extensive R&D capability in the universities - markedly different from other Newly Industrialized Countries. Looking at the present the paper concludes that the same operational model that led Israel's IT industry to success might now be undermining its future growth.
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    Party Linkages and Economic Policy: An Examination of Indira Gandhi's India (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 3, art4 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: We know from observation that some democracies intervene deeply in their domestic economies while others adopt a more laissez faire approach. Can we explain these differences solely with ideology, or are other political influences also at work? I argue in this paper that elected leaders sometimes opt for hefty economic regulation purely to generate sources of patronage that can be used to maintain their political positions. Leaders are most tempted to take this approach, I contend, when their political parties are not stably linked to sources of electoral support. Unstably linked governing parties will tend to have very short time horizons, focusing on the immediate objective of avoiding massive vote losses in the next election. As a result, they will be less concerned with the potential future damage that a patronage-based policy may inflict on the national economy. I find support for this argument with a close examination of Indian economic policy under Indira Gandhi. Prime Minister Gandhi, I contend, increased the Indian state's control over trade, industrial production, and credit allocation just as the Congress Party's linkages to the electorate were destabilizing.
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    Coalition Formation and Models of Capitalism (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 3, art2 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Why do different industrial democracies employ different processes in determining trade policy and different models of capitalism? Two variables account for the nature of the decision-making process for trade policy. First, the level of inter-industry factor mobility determines if class or sectoral coalitions predominate. Second, the size of policy coalitions depends on which branch of government dominates trade policy. Legislatures favor minimum winning coalitions, while executives favor maximal coalitions. These two variables condition different patterns of coalition making: partisan, pluralist, corporatist, and interventionist. I illustrate this theory analyzing the development of policymaking concerning trade in France and Sweden.
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    The Political Economy of Outsourcing in the European Union and the East-European Enlargement (2006)
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 8.2006, 2, art3 
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    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper explores the East-West dichotomy of outsourcing in the European Union in the context of its 2004 eastward enlargement. The purpose of the study is to shed light on the connection between outsourcing and the causal logic of regional integration. The conventional view is that the transfer of business operations from Western Europe to low-cost locations to the east represents a process of outsourcing West-European jobs which deprives the EU core of growth opportunities to the exclusive benefit of the new members from Eastern Europe. This analysis posits the systemic functions of EU outsourcing as a mechanism of economic homogenization in the regional market along its three principal dimensions: investment, commodity trade, and labor mobility. At the macro-level, outsourcing complements capital movements and trade, and acts as a substitute for labor mobility. Keeping labor mobility "down" is the main value added of EU outsourcing. Empirically, its relevance to the regional market is established in an input-output framework of relationships with indicators of economic convergence (homogenization effects) and labor mobility (substitution effects) in the EU. Positive correlations with indices of business synchronization and weak negative correlations with measures of labor supply and wages suggest that outsourcing fits well both with strategies fostering market integration and those counterbalancing the politically sensitive labor mobility in the EU. There is no significant evidence to suggest that, at the aggregate level, outsourcing has independent substitution effects with regard to unemployment rates and wages in Western Europe. The geographic expansion of EU integration, therefore, is not a proxy for losses of social welfare in the West. The paper concludes that as the cost efficiency and resource allocation functions of outsourcing facilitate the homogenizing dynamics of regional integration, it is likely to become increasingly subsumed under EU-level regulation and monitoring in a trade-off between the regional interest and domestic sectoral concerns.
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    Anaerobic Bioremediation of Groundwater Containing a Mixture of 1,1,2,2-Tetrachloroethane and Chloroethenes (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 193-206 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: bioremediation ; Dehalococcoides ; dechlorination ; microcosm ; tetrachloroethane ; trichloroethene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract This study investigated the biotransformation pathways of 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane (1,1,2,2-TeCA) in the presence of chloroethenes (i.e. tetrachloroethene, PCE; trichloroethene, TCE) in anaerobic microcosms constructed with subsurface soil and groundwater from a contaminated site. When amended with yeast extract, lactate, butyrate, or H2 and acetate, 1,1,2,2-TeCA was initially dechlorinated via both hydrogenolysis to 1,1,2-trichloroethane (1,1,2-TCA) (major pathway) and dichloroelimination to dichloroethenes (DCEs) (minor pathway), with both reactions occurring under sulfidogenic conditions. In the presence of only H2, the hydrogenolysis of 1,1,2,2-TeCA to 1,1,2-TCA apparently required the presence of acetate to occur. Once formed, 1,1,2-TCA was degraded predominantly via dichloroelimination to vinyl chloride (VC). Ultimately, chloroethanes were converted to chloroethenes (mainly VC and DCEs) which persisted in the microcosms for very long periods along with PCE and TCE originally present in the groundwater. Hydrogenolysis of chloroethenes occurred only after highly reducing methanogenic conditions were established. However, substantial conversion to ethene (ETH) was observed only in microcosms amended with yeast extract (200 mg/l), suggesting that groundwater lacked some nutritional factors which were likely provided to dechlorinating microorganisms by this complex organic substrate. Bioaugmentation with an H2-utilizing PCE-dechlorinating Dehalococcoides spp. -containing culture resulted in the conversion of 1,1,2,2-TeCA, PCE and TCE to ETH and VC. No chloroethanes accumulated during degradation suggesting that 1,1,2,2-TeCA was degraded through initial dichloroelimination into DCEs and then typical hydrogenolysis into ETH and VC.
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    Impacts of Bioremediation Schemes on Bacterial Population in Naphthalene-Contaminated Marine Sediments (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 227-235 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: community fingerprint ; polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon ; 16S rRNA
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Microcosm experiments were conduced in which the surface of marine sediment was contaminated with naphthalene and subjected to either of three different bioremediation schemes, i.e., biostimulation (BS) by supplementing with slow-release nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, bioaugmentation (BA) by inoculating with Cycloclasticus sp. E2, an aromatics-degrading bacterium identified to play an important role for aromatic-hydrocarbon degradation in marine environments and combination (CB) of BS and BA. These three schemes were found to be similarly effective for removing naphthalene, while naphthalene disappearance in sediment without any treatment (WT) was slower than those in the treated sediments. Shifts in bacterial populations during and after bioremediation were analyzed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene fragments. It was found that the Cycloclasticus rRNA type occurred as the strongest bands in the course of naphthalene degradation. Clustering analysis of DGGE profiles showed that bacterial populations in the WT, BS and CB sediments differed consistently from those in the uncontaminated control, while the profile for the BA sediment was finally included in the cluster for uncontaminated control sediments after a 150-day treatment. The results suggest that bioaugmentation with ecologically competent pollutant-degrading bacteria is an ecologically promising bioremediation scheme.
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    Isolation of Fenitrothion-degrading Strain Burkholderia sp. FDS-1 and Cloning of mpd Gene (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 275-283 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: biodegradation ; Burkholderia ; fenitrothion ; mpd gene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract A short rod shaped, gram-negative bacterium strain Burkholderia sp. FDS-1 was isolated from the sludge of the wastewater treating system of an organophosphorus pesticides manufacturer. The isolate was capable of using fenitrothion as the sole carbon source for its growth. FDS-1 first hydrolyzed fenitrothion to 3-methyl-4-nitrophenol, which was further metabolized to nitrite and methylhydroquinone. The addition of other carbon source and omitting phosphorus source had little effect on the hydrolysis of fenitrothion. The gene encoding the organophosphorus hydrolytic enzyme was cloned and sequenced. The sequence was similar to mpd, a gene previously shown to encode a parathion-methyl-hydrolyzing enzyme in Plesiomonas sp. M6. The inoculation of strain FDS-1 (106 cells g−1) to soil treated with 100 mg fenitrothion emulsion kg−1 resulted in a higher degradation rate than in noninoculated soils regardless of the soil sterilized or nonsterilized. These results highlight the potential of this bacterium to be used in the cleanup of contaminated pesticide waste in the environment.
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    2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid (2,4-D) Utilization by Delftia acidovorans MC1 at Alkaline pH and in the Presence of Dichlorprop is Improved by Introduction of the tfdK Gene (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 263-273 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: Delftia acidovorans MC1 ; 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) ; 2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy) propanoic acid (2,4-DP) ; effect of tfdK gene ; simultaneous utilization of 2,4-D and 2,4-DP ; uptake characteristics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Growth of Delftia acidovorans MC1 on 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and on racemic 2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)propanoic acid ((RS)-2,4-DP) was studied in the perspective of an extension of the strain’s degradation capacity at alkaline pH. At pH 6.8 the strain grew on 2,4-D at a maximum rate (μmax) of 0.158 h−1. The half-maximum rate-associated substrate concentration (Ks) was 45 μM. At pH 8.5 μmax was only 0.05 h−1 and the substrate affinity was mucher lower than at pH 6.8. The initial attack of 2,4-D was not the limiting step at pH 8.5 as was seen from high dioxygenase activity in cells grown at this pH. High stationary 2,4-D concentrations and the fact that μmax with dichlorprop was around 0.2 h−1 at both pHs rather pointed at limited 2,4-D uptake at pH 8.5. Introduction of tfdK from D. acidovorans P4a by conjugation, coding for a 2,4-D-specific transporter resulted in improved growth on 2,4-D at pH 8.5 with μmax of 0.147 h−1 and Ks of 267 μM. Experiments with labeled substrates showed significantly enhanced 2,4-D uptake by the transconjugant TK62. This is taken as an indication of expression of the tfdK gene and proper function of the transporter. The uncoupler carbonylcyanide m-chlorophenylhydrazone (CCCP) reduced the influx of 2,4-D. At a concentration of 195 μM 2,4-D, the effect amounted to 90% and 50%, respectively, with TK62 and MC1. Cloning of tfdK also improved the utilization of 2,4-D in the presence of (RS)−2,4-DP. Simultaneous and almost complete degradation of both compounds occurred in TK62 up to D = 0.23 h−1 at pH 6.8 and up to D = 0.2 h−1 at pH 8.5. In contrast, MC1 left 2,4-D largely unutilized even at low dilution rates when growing on herbicide mixtures at pH 8.5.
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    Efforts to Explain and Control the Prolonged Thermophilic Period in Two-phase Olive Oil Mill Sludge Composting (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 285-292 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: composting ; crude oil ; olive mill wastewater ; olive oil mills ; olive tree branches ; olive tree leaves ; sludge ; woodchips
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The aim of this paper was to evaluate the use of different bulking agents in different ratios as a means to control, optimise and eventually reduce the duration of the thermophilic period in two-phase olive oil mill sludge (OOMS) composting. The bulking agents used were: (i) olive tree leaves (OTL), (ii) olive tree shredded branches (OTB) and (iii) woodchips (WDC). The selection of these materials was based on their abundance and availability on the island of Crete, the southernmost point of Greece. The ratios studied were: Pile 1, OOMS:OTL in 1:1 v/v; Pile 2, OOMS:WDC in 1:1.5 v/v; Pile 3, OOMS:OTL in 1:2 v/v; Pile 4, OOMS:OTL:OTB in 1:1:1 v/v; and Pile 5, OOMS:OTL:OTB in 1:1:2 v/v. The composting system used was that of windrows with the volume of each pile approximately 20–25 m3. The experiments took place over two consecutive years. A composting turner was used and turnings were performed at one and two week intervals. In each pile a variety of physiochemical parameters were monitored. Temperature remained high in all five trials. Piles 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 temperatures recorded values of above 50 °C for 106, 158, 160, 175 and 183 days, respectively. Volumes were reduced by approximately 67%, 62%, 63%, 80% and 84%, respectively. Temperature remained high, mainly due to the presence in large amounts of oily substances which during their complete oxidation release important amounts of energy and aid the cometabolism of more stable molecules such as lignin. This process is better described as the slow “burning” of a “fuel” mixture in an “engine” than composting. This approach is based on the extensive similarities of this process to that of crude oil sludge or similar waste composting.
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    The Impact of Bioaugmentation on Metal Cyanide Degradation and Soil Bacteria Community Structure (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 207-217 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: biodegradation ; DGGE ; K2Ni(CN)4 soil bacterial populations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Metal cyanides are significant contaminants of many soils found at the site of former industrial activity. In this study we isolated bacteria capable of degrading ferric ferrocyanide and K2Ni(CN)4. One of these bacteria a Rhodococcus spp. was subsequently used to bioaugment a minimal medium broth, spiked with K2Ni(CN)4, containing 1 g of either an uncontaminated topsoil or a former coke works site soil. Degradation of the K2Ni(CN)4 was observed in both soils, however, bioaugmentation did not significantly impact the rate or degree of K2Ni(CN)4 removal. Statistical analysis of denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles showed that the topsoil bacterial community had a higher biodiversity, and its structure was not significantly affected by either K2Ni(CN)4 or bioaugmentation. In contrast, profiles from the coke works site indicated significant changes in the bacterial community in response to these additions. Moreover, in both soils although bioaugmentation did not affect rates of biodegradation the Rhodococcus spp. did become established in the communities in broths containing both top and coke works soil. We conclude that bacterial communities from contaminated soils with low biodiversity are much more readily perturbed through interventions such as contamination events or bioaugmentation treatments and discuss the implications of these findings for bioremediation studies.
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    Isolation and Characterization of a Pseudomonas Oleovorans Degrading the Chloroacetamide Herbicide Acetochlor (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 219-225 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: acetochlor ; degradation ; isolation ; Pseudomonas oleovorans
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract To date, no pure bacterial cultures that could degrade acetochlor have been described. In this study, one strain of microorganism capable of degrading acetochlor, designated as LCa2, was isolated from acetochlor-contaminated soil. The strain LCa2 is Pseudomonas oleovorans according to the criteria of Bergey’s manual of determinative bacteriology and sequence analysis of the partial 16S rRNA gene. Optimum growth temperature and pH were 35 °C and 8.0, respectively. The strain could degrade 98.03% of acetochlor treated at a concentration of 7.6 mg l−1 after 7 days of incubation and could tolerate 200 mg l−1 of acetochlor. When the acetochlor concentration became higher, the degradation cycle became longer. The acetochlor biodegradation products were identified by GC–MS based on mass spectral data and fragmentation patterns. The main plausible degradative pathways involved dechlorination, hydroxylation, N-dealkylation, C-dealkylation and dehydrogenation.
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    Bioremediation by Composting of Heavy Oil Refinery Sludge in Semiarid Conditions (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 251-261 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: bioremediation ; composting ; ecotoxicity ; oil sludge
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The present work attempts to ascertain the efficacy of low cost technology (in our case, composting) as a bioremediation technique for reducing the hydrocarbon content of oil refinery sludge with a large total hydrocarbon content (250–300 g kg−1), in semiarid conditions. The oil sludge was produced in a refinery sited in SE Spain The composting system designed, which involved open air piles turned periodically over a period of 3 months, proved to be inexpensive and reliable. The influence on hydrocarbon biodegradation of adding a bulking agent (wood shavings) and inoculation of the composting piles with pig slurry (a liquid organic fertiliser which adds nutrients and microbial biomass to the pile) was also studied. The most difficult part during the composting process was maintaining a suitable level of humidity in the piles. The most effective treatment was the one in which the bulking agent was added, where the initial hydrocarbon content was reduced by 60% in 3 months, compared with the 32% reduction achieved without the bulking agent. The introduction of the organic fertiliser did not significantly improve the degree of hydrocarbon degradation (56% hydrocarbon degraded). The composting process undoubtedly led to the biodegradation of toxic compounds, as was demonstrated by ecotoxicity tests using luminescent bacteria and tests on plants in Petri dishes.
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    The ACCEL Model for Accelerating the Detoxification Kinetics of Hydrocarbons Requiring Initial Monooxygenation Reactions (2006)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (2006), S. 237-250 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: activated sludge ; dichlorophenol ; monooxygenation ; nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide ; phenolics ; specific growth rate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The two-tank accelerator/aerator modification of activated sludge significantly increases the biodegradation of hydrocarbons requiring initial monooxygenation reactions, such as phenol and 2,4-dichlorophenol (DCP). The small accelerator tank has a controlled low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration that can enrich the biomass in NADH + H+. It also has a very high specific growth rate (μacc) that up-regulates the biomass’s content of the monooxygenase enzyme. Here, we develop and test the ACCEL model, which quantifies all key phenomena taking place when the accelerator/aerator system is used to enhance biodegradation of hydrocarbons requiring initial monooxygenations. Monooxygenation kinetics follow a multiplicative relationship in which the organic substrates (phenol or DCP) and DO have separate Monod terms, while the biomass’s content of NADH + H+ has a first-order term. The monooxygenase enzyme has different affinities (K values) for phenol and DCP. The biomass’s NADH + H+ content is based on a proportioning of NAD(H) according to the relative rates of NADH + H+ sources and sinks. Biomass synthesis occurs simultaneously through utilization of acetate, phenol, and DCP, but each has its own true yield. The ACCEL model accurately simulates all trends for one-tank and two-tank experiments in which acetate, phenol, and DCP are biodegraded together. In particular, DCP removal is affected most by DOacc and the retention-time ratio, Θacc/Θtotal. Adding an accelerator tank dramatically increases DCP removal, and the best DCP removal occurs for 0.2 〈 DOacc  〈 0.5 mg/l and 0.08 〈 Θacc/Θtotal 〈 0.2. The rates of phenol and DCP utilization follow the multiplicative relationship with a maximum specific rate coefficient proportional to μacc. Finally, μacc increases rapidly for Θacc/Θtotal 〈 0.25, acetate removal in the accelerator fuels the high μacc, and the biomass’s NADH + H+ content increases very dramatically for DOacc 〈 0.25 mg/l.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10532-005-5019-8
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    Information Specificity and Hazard Risk Potential as Moderators of Trust Asymmetry (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Trust in risk managers appears to be an important antecedent of public acceptance for many hazards. However, such trust may be fragile since research suggests that negative performance information has a greater impact than positive performance information (Slovic, 1993). Closer examination of these findings suggests two potential moderators of this valence-related asymmetry—information specificity and hazard risk potential. First, we predicted that the asymmetry would be less evident for low versus high specificity information (risk management policies vs. concrete events). Second, we predicted that it would also be less evident for a low- versus high-risk hazard (pharmaceutical vs. nuclear industry). Study 1 reanalyzed Slovic's original trust asymmetry data for the nuclear industry. In line with Prediction 1, trust asymmetry was less evident for policy than event-related information. Using a new set of items with more clearly defined levels of specificity, Study 2 replicated and extended these findings for the high-risk hazard (nuclear power). In line with Prediction 2, trust asymmetry was even less evident for the low-risk hazard (pharmaceuticals). Positive policies in this industry actually had a greater impact on trust than negative ones, in contrast to previous findings. Results support an information diagnosticity account of earlier findings and suggest that trust in risk managers may be more robust than previously believed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00659.x
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    Precautionary Regulation in Europe and the United States: A Quantitative Comparison (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the United States is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the United States is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the United States was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected nonrandomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the United States for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the United States are equally precautionary and where Europe or the United States has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00662.x
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    Risk Perception and Technological Development at a Societal Level (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article tests the hypothesis that the exposure to the threat to societies posed by the introduction of new technologies is associated with a normalization of risk perception. Data collected in 2000 by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on environmental issues were used to explore this hypothesis. Representative samples from 25 countries were employed to assess the national levels of perceived threat to the environment associated with a series of technologies and activities. These values were correlated with economic indicators (mainly from the World Bank) of the diffusion of each of the technologies or activities in each country. Results indicate a negative association of risk perception with the level of technological prevalence (societal normalization effect) and a positive association with the rate of growth of the technology (societal sensitivity effect). These results indicate that the most acute levels of perceived environmental risk are found in those countries where the level of technological prevalence is low but where there has recently been substantial technological development. Environmental awareness is a mediator of the relationship between risk perception and the indices of technological diffusion. This result means that: (1) societal normalization of risk is not a direct consequence of prevalence of the technology, but is driven by awareness of technological development and that (2) societal sensitivity to risk is associated with lower levels of environmental awareness.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00664.x
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    Using Choice Experiments to Assess People's Preferences for Railway Transports of Hazardous Materials (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00660.x
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    Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00665.x
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    How Much Uncertainty is Too Much and How Do We Know? A Case Example of the Assessment of Ozone Monitor Network Options (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Limited time and resources usually characterize environmental decision making at policy organizations such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In these climates, addressing uncertainty, usually considered a flaw in scientific analyses, is often avoided. However, ignoring uncertainties can result in unpleasant policy surprises. Furthermore, it is important for decisionmakers to know how defensible a chosen policy option is over other options when the uncertainties of the data are considered. The purpose of this article is to suggest an approach that is unique from other approaches in that it considers uncertainty in two specific ways—the uncertainty of stakeholder values within a particular decision context and data uncertainty in the light of the decision-contextual data–values relationship. It is the premise of this article that the interaction between data and stakeholder values is critical to how the decision options are viewed and determines the effect of data uncertainty on the relative acceptability of the decision options, making the understanding of this interaction important to decisionmakers and other stakeholders. This approach utilizes the recently developed decision analysis framework and process, multi-criteria integrated resource assessment (MIRA). This article will specifically address how MIRA can be used to help decisionmakers better understand the importance of uncertainty on the specific (i.e., decision contextual) environmental policy options that they are deliberating.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00666.x
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    Perception of Mobile Phone and Base Station Risks (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N= 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00672.x
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    Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00675.x
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    An Ecological Risk Assessment of Nonnative Boas and Pythons as Potentially Invasive Species in the United States (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The growing international trade in live wildlife has the potential to result in continuing establishment of nonnative animal populations in the United States. Snakes may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species, as exemplified by the decimation of Guam's vertebrate fauna by the accidentally introduced brown tree snake. Herein, ecological and commercial predictors of the likelihood of establishment of invasive populations were used to model risk associated with legal commercial imports of 23 species of boas, pythons, and relatives into the United States during the period 1989–2000. Data on ecological variables were collected from multiple sources, while data on commercial variables were collated from import records maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Results of the risk-assessment models indicate that species including boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), ball pythons (Python regius), and reticulated pythons (P. reticulatus) may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species. Recommendations for reducing risk of establishment of invasive populations of snakes and/or pathogens include temporary quarantine of imports to increase detection rates of nonnative pathogens, increasing research attention to reptile pathogens, reducing the risk that nonnative snakes will reach certain areas with high numbers of federally listed species (such as the Florida Keys), and attempting to better educate individuals purchasing reptiles.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00621.x
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    Public Perceptions of Risk to Forest Biodiversity (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This study examines the perceived risks to forest biodiversity and perceived effectiveness of biodiversity conservation strategies among the general public. It tests the hypotheses that perceived risk to forest biodiversity is influenced by cognitive factors (value orientation and knowledge) and social-cultural factors (such as gender and environmental membership) and that risk perceptions influence other cognitive constructs such as support for natural resource policy and management. Data were collected from a sample of the general public (n= 596) in British Columbia, Canada by mail survey in 2001. Results show that insects and disease were perceived as the greatest risk. Educating the public and industry about biodiversity issues was perceived as a more effective conservation strategy than restricting human uses of the forest. Value orientation was a better predictor of perceptions of risk and perceived effectiveness of conservation strategies than knowledge indicators or social-cultural variables. Examining the indirect effects of social-cultural variables, however, revealed that value orientation may amplify the effect of these variables and suggests that alternative paths of influence should be included. Perceived risk showed an inconsistent association with perceived effectiveness of conservation strategies.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00623.x
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    A Disciplinary Perspective on the Epistemological Status of Risk (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A unique multidisciplinary perspective on the risk literature is used to establish a fresh and provocative argument regarding the epistemological understanding and definition of risk. Building on economic conceptualizations that distinguish risk from uncertainty and argue that risk is an ordered application of knowledge to the unknown, the survey identifies each of the disciplines as having a particular knowledge approach with which they confront the unknown so as to order its randomness and convert it into a risk proposition. This epistemological approach suggests the concept of risk can act as a mirror, reflecting the preoccupations, strengths, and weaknesses of each discipline as they grapple with uncertainty. The conclusion suggests that the different disciplines can, and desirably should, act in concert toward a cumulative appreciation of risk that progresses our understanding of the concept. One way in which the article challenges risk experts to join disciplinary forces in a collaborative effort is to holistically appreciate and articulate the concept of political risk calculation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00625.x
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    The Greater Ability of Graphical Versus Numerical Displays to Increase Risk Avoidance Involves a Common Mechanism (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: By displaying a risk reduction of 50% graphically rather than numerically, Stone, Yates, and Parker significantly increased professed risk-avoidant behavior. The current experiments replicated this effect at various risk ratios. Specifically, participants were willing to spend more money to reduce a risk when the risk information was displayed by asterisks rather than by numbers for risk-reduction ratios ranging from 3% to 97%. Transforming the amount participants were willing to spend to logarithms significantly improved a linear fit to the data, suggesting that participants convert this variable within the decision-making process. Moreover, a log-linear model affords an exceptional fit to both the graphical and numerical data, suggesting that a graphical presentation elicits the same decision-making mechanism as does the numerical display. In addition, the data also suggest that each person removed from harm is weighted more by some additional factor in the graphical compared to the numerical presentations.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00624.x
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    Erratum to Risk in Perspective: Insight and Humor in the Age of Risk Management, reviewed by Paul Slovik, in Risk Analysis, 25(2), 2005 (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.25_03_02.x
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    Quantitative Estimates of Risk for Noncancer Endpoints (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: While quantitative estimates of risk have been a standard practice in cancer risk assessment for many years, no similar practice is evident in noncancer risk assessment. We use two recent examples involving methylmercury and arsenic to illustrate the negative impact of this discrepancy on risk communication and cost-benefit analysis. We argue for a more balanced treatment of cancer and noncancer risks and suggest an approach for reaching this goal.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00589.x
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    Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00590.x
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    Residential Radon in Canada: An Uncertainty Analysis of Population and Individual Lung Cancer Risk (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Following a comprehensive evaluation of the health risks of radon, the U.S. National Research Council (US-NRC) concluded that the radon inside the homes of U.S. residents is an important cause of lung cancer. To assess lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure in Canadian homes, we apply the new (US-NRC) techniques, tailoring assumptions to the Canadian context. A two-dimensional uncertainty analysis is used to provide both population-based (population attributable risk, PAR; excess lifetime risk ratio, ELRR; and life-years lost, LYL) and individual-based (ELRR and LYL) estimates. Our primary results obtained for the Canadian population reveal mean estimates for ELRR, PAR, and LYL are 0.08, 8%, and 0.10 years, respectively. Results are also available and stratified by smoking status (ever versus never). Conveniently, the three indices (ELRR, PAR, and LYL) reveal similar output uncertainty (geometric standard deviation, GSD ≈ 1.3), and in the case of ELRR and LYL, comparable variability and uncertainty combined (GSD ≈ 4.2). Simplifying relationships are identified between ELRR, LYL, PAR, and the age-specific excess rate ratio (ERR), which suggest a way to scale results from one population to another. This insight is applied in scaling our baseline results to obtain gender-specific estimates, as well as in simplifying and illuminating sensitivity analysis.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00587.x
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    Development of the PEARLS Model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup) and Use of Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Internal Exposure to PM2.5 in Toronto (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Air pollution is a current and growing concern for Canadians, and there is evidence that ambient levels that meet current exposure standards may be associated with mortality and morbidity in Toronto, Canada. Evaluating exposure is an important step in understanding the relationship between particulate matter (PM) exposure and health outcomes. This report describes the PEARLS model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup), which predicts exposure distributions for 11 age-gender population subgroups in Toronto to PM2.5 (PM with a median aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model uses physiological and activity pattern characteristics of each subgroup to determine region-specific lung exposure to PM2.5, which is defined as the mass of PM2.5 deposited per unit time to each of five lung regions (two extrathoracic, bronchial, bronchiolar, and alveolar). The modeling results predict that children, toddlers, and infants have the broadest distributions of exposure, and the greatest chance of experiencing extreme exposures in the alveolar region of the lung. Importance analysis indicates that the most influential model variables are air exchange rate into indoor environments, time spent outdoors, and time spent at high activity levels. Additionally, a “critical point” was defined and introduced to the PEARLS to investigate the effects of possible threshold-pathogenic phenomena on subgroup exposure patterns. The analysis indicates that the subgroups initially predicted to be most highly exposed were likely to have the highest proportion of their population exposed above the critical point. Substantial exposures above the critical point were predicted in all subgroups for ambient concentrations of PM2.5 commonly observed in Toronto after continuous exposure of 24 hours or more.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00591.x
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    Probability Distributions for Showering and Bathing Water-Use Behavior for Various U.S. Subpopulations (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: It has been shown that bathroom-type water uses dominate personal exposure to water-borne contaminants in the home. Therefore, in assessing exposure of specific population groups to the contaminants in the water, understanding population water-use behavior for bathroom activities as a function of demographic characteristics is vital to realistic exposure estimates. In this article, shower and bath frequencies and durations are analyzed, presented, and compared for various demographic groups derived from analyses of the National Human Activities Pattern Survey (NHAPS) database and the Residential End Uses of Water Study (REUWS) database as well as from a review of current literature. Analysis showed that age and level of education significantly influenced shower and bath frequency and duration. The frequency of showering and bathing reported in NHAPS agreed reasonably well with previous studies; however, durations of these events were found to be significantly longer. Showering frequency reported in REUWS was slightly less than that reported for NHAPS; however, durations of showers reported in REUWS are consistent with other studies. After considering the strengths and weaknesses of each data set and comparing their results to previous studies, it is concluded that NHAPS provides more reliable frequency data, while REUWS provides more reliable duration data. The shower- and bath-use behavior parameters recommended in this article can aid modelers in appropriately specifying water-use behavior as a function of demographic group in order to conduct reasonable assessments of exposure to contaminants that enter the home via the water supply.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00592.x
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    Additivity of Information Value in Two-Act Linear Loss Decisions with Normal Priors (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Information about two uncertainties is superadditive in value if the value of information for resolving both uncertainties together exceeds the sum of the value of information for resolving each uncertainty alone. For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is superadditive. An approximate condition is also presented. The level of additivity of information value has implications for how risk-management resources should be allocated to acquisition of information. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the basic problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00594.x
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    Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling to Address Nonlinear Kinetics and Changes in Rodent Physiology and Metabolism Due to Aging and Adaptation in Deriving Reference Values for Propylene Glycol Methyl Ether and Propylene Glycol Methyl Ether Acetate (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based on transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during Weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues (i.e., brain) was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based on a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based on the presence or the absence of sedation at each time point, species, and sex in the two-year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of 10. Nonlinear kinetics, which was predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, complicate interspecies, and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches that differ with respect to the order in which these extrapolations were performed: (1) default approach of interspecies extrapolation to determine the human equivalent concentration (PBPK modeling) followed by uncertainty factor application, and (2) uncertainty factor application followed by interspecies extrapolation (PBPK modeling). The resulting reference values for these two approaches are substantially different, with values from the latter approach being seven-fold higher than those from the former approach. Such a striking difference between the two approaches reveals an underlying issue that has received little attention in the literature regarding the application of uncertainty factors and interspecies extrapolations to compounds where saturable kinetics occur in the range of the NOAEL. Until such discussions have taken place, reference values based on the former approach are recommended for risk assessments involving human exposures to PGME and PGMEA.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00588.x
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    A Multilayered Box Model for Calculating Preliminary Remediation Goals in Soil Screening (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In the process of screening a soil against a certain contaminant, we define the health-risk-based preliminary remediation goal (PRG) as the contaminant concentration above which some remedial action may be required. Thus, PRG is the first standard (or guidance) for judging a site. An overestimated PRG (a too-large value) may cause us to miss some contaminated sites that can threaten human health and the environment. An underestimated PRG (a too-small value), on the other hand, may lead to unnecessary cleanup and waste tremendous resources. The PRGs for soils are often calculated on the assumption that the contaminant concentration in soil does not change with time. However, that concentration usually decreases with time as a result of different chemical and transport mechanisms. The static assumption thus exaggerates the long-term exposure dose and results in a too-small PRG. We present a box model that considers all important transport processes and obeys the law of mass conservation. We can use the model as a tool to estimate the transient contaminant concentrations in air, soil, and ground water. Using these concentrations in conjunction with appropriate health-risk parameters, we may estimate the PRGs for different contaminants. As an example, we calculated the tritium PRG for residential soils. The result is quite different from, but within the range of, the two versions of the corresponding PRG previously recommended by the U.S. EPA.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00593.x
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    A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00595.x
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    Compressed Natural Gas Bus Safety: A Quantitative Risk Assessment (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 × 10−5 fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 × 10−6 and 4.0 × 10−5, respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00596.x
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    Aggregate, Disaggregate, and Hybrid Analyses of Ecological Risk Perceptions (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Laypeople's perceptions of health and safety risks have been widely studied, but only a few studies have addressed perceptions of ecological hazards. We assembled a list of 39 attributes of ecological hazards from the literatures on comparative risk assessment, ecological health, environmental conservation and management, environmental psychology, and risk perception. In Study 1, 125 laypeople evaluated 83 hazards on subsets of this attribute set. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged over participants) revealed six oblique factors: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability. These factors predicted mean judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness. In Study 2, 30 laypeople each evaluated 34 hazards on 17 attributes and 3 dependent variables. Aggregate-level factor analysis of these data replicated the appropriate portion of the factor solution and yielded similar regression results. Parallel analyses at the individual-participant level yielded factors that explained less variance in judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, and acceptability. However, the decrease in explanatory power was much less than is often reported for disaggregate-level analyses of psychometric data. This discrepancy illustrates the importance of distinguishing between the level of analysis (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the focus of analysis (distinctions among hazards versus distinctions among participants). In a hybrid analysis, aggregate-level factor scores predicted individual participants' riskiness judgments reasonably well. Psychometric studies such as these provide a sound empirical basis for selecting attributes of ecological hazards for use in comparative risk assessment.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00599.x
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    Using Integrated Geospatial Mapping and Conceptual Site Models to Guide Risk-Based Environmental Clean-Up Decisions (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Government and private sector organizations are increasingly turning to the use of maps and other visual models to provide a depiction of environmental hazards and the potential risks they represent to humans and ecosystems. Frequently, the graphic presentation is tailored to address a specific contaminant, its location and possible exposure pathways, and potential receptors. Its format is usually driven by the data available, choice of graphics technology, and the audience being served. A format that is effective for displaying one contaminant at one scale at one site, however, may be ineffective in accurately portraying the circumstances surrounding a different contaminant at the same site, or the same contaminant at a different site, because of limitations in available data or the graphics technology being used. This is the daunting challenge facing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which is responsible for the nation's legacy wastes from nuclear weapons research, testing, and production at over 100 sites in the United States. In this article, we discuss the development and use of integrated geospatial mapping and conceptual site models to identify hazards and evaluate alternative long-term environmental clean-up strategies at DOE sites located across the United States. While the DOE probably has the greatest need for such information, the Department of Defense and other public and private responsible parties for many large and controversial National Priority List or Superfund sites would benefit from a similar approach.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00600.x
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    Risk Analysis of Finnish Peacekeeping in Kosovo (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00597.x
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    Predictive Genetic Testing for Alzheimer's Disease: Impact upon Risk Perception (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The aim of this study was to determine the impact on risk perceptions of disclosing genetic test results used to estimate the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Adult children (n= 149) of people with AD were randomized to one of two groups—Intervention group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on age, gender, family history, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; Control group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on the same risk factors excluding APOE genotype. Perceptions of personal risk (PPR) for AD were assessed six weeks after risk assessments. PPR were correlated with actual lifetime risk estimates (r= 0.501; p 〈 0.0001). After controlling for lifetime risks communicated to participants, age, and number of affected relatives, PPR scores among those with an ɛ4-positive test result (the test result associated with increased AD susceptibility) (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7)) were not different from the PPR scores in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F(1,91)= 1.98; p= 0.162). Again, controlling for lifetime risk estimates, age, and number of affected relatives, the PPR score of those receiving an ɛ4-negative test result was significantly lower (adjusted mean: 3.1 (SD: 0.8)) than those in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F(1,95)= 6.23; p= 0.014). Perceptions of risk of developing AD are influenced by genetic test disclosure in those receiving ɛ4-negative, but not those receiving ɛ4-positive test results. Despite the reduced perceptions of risk in the former group, there was no evidence of false reassurance (i.e., perceiving risks as equal to or lower than population risks of AD), although this possibility should be assessed in other testing contexts.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00598.x
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    Bringing Social Standards into Project Evaluation Under Dynamic Uncertainty (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Society often sets social standards that define thresholds of damage to society or the environment above which compensation must be paid to the state or other parties. In this article, we analyze the interdependence between the use of social standards and investment evaluation under dynamic uncertainty where a negative externality above a threshold established by society requires an assessment and payment of damages. Under uncertainty, the party considering implementing a project or new technology must not only assess when the project is economically efficient to implement but when to abandon a project that could potentially exceed the social standard. Using real-option theory and simple models, we demonstrate how such a social standard can be integrated into cost-benefit analysis through the use of a development option and a liability option coupled with a damage function. Uncertainty, in fact, implies that both parties interpret the social standard as a target for safety rather than an inflexible barrier that cannot be overcome. The larger is the uncertainty, in fact, the greater will be the tolerance for damages in excess of the social standard from both parties.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00602.x
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    Toward Cost-Benefit Analysis of Acute Behavioral Effects of Toluene in Humans (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: There is increasing interest in being able to express the consequences of exposure to potentially toxic compounds in monetary terms in order to evaluate potential cost-benefit relationships of controlling exposure. Behavioral effects of acute toluene exposure could be subjected to cost-benefit analysis if the effects of toluene were quantitatively compared to those of ethanol ingestion, which has been monetized for applied contexts. Behavioral effects of toluene and ethanol were quantified by meta-analysis of studies from the peer-reviewed literature describing their effects on choice reaction time (reaction time in a test requiring a subject to choose among two or more alternatives before responding). The internal doses of these compounds were estimated by a general physiological and toxicokinetic (GPAT) simulation from exposure parameters provided in the reports. The reported effects were converted to a common metric (proportion of baseline) and related to the estimated internal doses of toluene and ethanol, from which dose-effect equations were fitted. The estimated effect of toluene was compared to the estimated effect of ethanol on the same dependent variable by deriving a dose-equivalence equation (DEE) to express the dose of toluene as an equivalent dose of ethanol on the basis of equal effect magnitude. A nomogram was constructed by GPAT simulation to relate the environmental exposure concentration of toluene to the equivalent effect magnitude of a range of ethanol internal doses. Behavioral effects and their evaluation are determined by internal doses, which in turn are determined by a variety of variables. In addition to concentration and duration of exposure, which determine internal dose by pharmacokinetic processes, the activity level of exposed persons is a major factor. This analysis provides a continuous function of the consequences of toluene exposure expressed as ethanol-equivalent doses within confidence limits. The resulting function has the potential to estimate the monetary values of behavioral deficits caused by a range of exposures to toluene from existing monetized information on ethanol.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00601.x
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    Risk in Perspective: Insight and Humor in the Age of Risk Management (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00605.x
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    Letter to the Editor (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00561.x
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    Modeling Growth of Clostridium perfringens in Pea Soup During Cooling (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Clostridium perfringens is a pathogen that mainly causes food poisoning outbreaks when large quantities of food are prepared. Therefore, a model was developed to predict the effect of different cooling procedures on the growth of this pathogen during cooling of food: Dutch pea soup. First, a growth rate model based on interpretable parameters was used to predict growth during linear cooling of pea soup. Second, a temperature model for cooling pea soup was constructed by fitting the model to experimental data published earlier. This cooling model was used to estimate the effect of various cooling environments on average cooling times, taking into account the effect of stirring and product volume. The growth model systematically overestimated growth of C. perfringens during cooling in air, but this effect was limited to less than 0.5 log N/ml and this was considered to be acceptable for practical purposes. It was demonstrated that the growth model for C. perfringens combined with the cooling model for pea soup could be used to sufficiently predict growth of C. perfringens in different volume sizes of pea soup during cooling in air as well as the effect of stirring, different cooling temperatures, and various cooling environments on the growth of C. perfringens in pea soup. Although fine-tuning may be needed to eliminate inaccuracies, it was concluded that the combined model could be a useful tool for designing good manufacturing practices (GMP) procedures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00567.x
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    Meta-Analysis of Food Safety Information Based on a Combination of a Relational Database and a Predictive Modeling Tool (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The management of microbial risk in food products requires the ability to predict growth kinetics of pathogenic microorganisms in the event of contamination and growth initiation. Useful data for assessing these issues may be found in the literature or from experimental results. However, the large number and variety of data make further development difficult. Statistical techniques, such as meta-analysis, are then useful to realize synthesis of a set of distinct but similar experiences. Moreover, predictive modeling tools can be employed to complete the analysis and help the food safety manager to interpret the data. In this article, a protocol to perform a meta-analysis of the outcome of a relational database, associated with quantitative microbiology models, is presented. The methodology is illustrated with the effect of temperature on pathogenic Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes, growing in culture medium, beef meat, and milk products. Using a database and predictive models, simulations of growth in a given product subjected to various temperature scenarios can be produced. It is then possible to compare food products for a given microorganism, according to its growth ability in these products, and to compare the behavior of bacteria in a given foodstuff. These results can assist decisions for a variety of questions on food safety.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00568.x
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    Uncertainty Distribution Associated with Estimating a Proportion in Microbial Risk Assessment (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The uncertainty associated with estimates should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment. Each input's uncertainty can be characterized through a probabilistic distribution for use under Monte Carlo simulations. In this study, the sampling uncertainty associated with estimating a low proportion on the basis of a small sample size was considered. A common application in microbial risk assessment is the estimation of a prevalence, proportion of contaminated food products, on the basis of few tested units. Three Bayesian approaches (based on beta(0, 0), beta 〈inlineGraphic alt="inline image" href="urn:x-wiley:02724332:RISA565:RISA_565_mu1" location="equation/RISA_565_mu1.gif"/〉, and beta(l, 1)) and one frequentist approach (based on the frequentist confidence distribution) were compared and evaluated on the basis of simulations. For small samples, we demonstrated some differences between the four tested methods. We concluded that the better method depends on the true proportion of contaminated products, which is by definition unknown in common practice. When no prior information is available, we recommend the beta 〈inlineGraphic alt="inline image" href="urn:x-wiley:02724332:RISA565:RISA_565_mu2" location="equation/RISA_565_mu2.gif"/〉 prior or the confidence distribution. To illustrate the importance of these differences, the four methods were used in an applied example. We performed two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the proportion of cold smoked salmon packs contaminated by Listeria monocytogenes, one dimension representing within-factory uncertainty, modeled by each of the four studied methods, and the other dimension representing variability between companies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00565.x
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    A Poultry-Processing Model for Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A poultry-processing model for a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of campylobacter is presented, which can also be applied to other QMRAs involving poultry processing. The same basic model is applied in each consecutive stage of industrial processing. It describes the effects of inactivation and removal of the bacteria, and the dynamics of cross-contamination in terms of the transfer of campylobacter from the intestines to the carcass surface and the environment, from the carcasses to the environment, and from the environment to the carcasses. From the model it can be derived that, in general, the effect of inactivation and removal is dominant for those carcasses with high initial bacterial loads, and cross-contamination is dominant for those with low initial levels. In other QMRA poultry-processing models, the input-output relationship between the numbers of bacteria on the carcasses is usually assumed to be linear on a logarithmic scale. By including some basic mechanistics, it is shown that this may not be realistic. As nonlinear behavior may affect the predicted effects of risk mitigations; this finding is relevant for risk management. Good knowledge of the variability of bacterial loads on poultry entering the process is important. The common practice in microbiology to only present geometric mean of bacterial counts is insufficient: arithmetic mean are more suitable, in particular, to describe the effect of cross-contamination. The effects of logistic slaughter (scheduled processing) as a risk mitigation strategy are predicted to be small. Some additional complications in applying microbiological data obtained in processing plants are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00569.x
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    A Linear Model for Managing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance Originating in Food Animals (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A linear population risk model used by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) estimates the risk of human cases of campylobacteriosis caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter. Among the cases of campylobacteriosis attributed to domestically produced chicken, the fluoroquinolone resistance is assumed to result from the use of fluoroquinolones in poultry in the United States. Properties of the linear population risk model are contrasted with those of a farm-to-fork model commonly used for microbial risk assessments. The utility of the linear population model for the purpose for which it was used by CVM is discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00570.x
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    A Model of Hygiene Practices and Consumption Patterns in the Consumer Phase (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18–29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0–4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5–17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00566.x
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    Benchmark Analysis: Shopping with Proper Confidence (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We discuss the issue of using benchmark doses for quantifying (excess) risk associated with exposure to environmental hazards. The paradigm of low-dose risk estimation in dose-response modeling is used as the primary application scenario. Emphasis is placed on making simultaneous inferences on benchmark doses when data are in the form of proportions, although the concepts translate easily to other forms of outcome data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00636.x
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    Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling “long” tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00641.x
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    Why Has Safety Improved at Rail-Highway Grade Crossings? (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The number of collisions and fatalities at rail-highway intersections in the United States has declined significantly over the past 30 years, despite considerable increases in the volume of rail and highway traffic. This article disaggregates the improvement into its constituent causes. Negative binomial regressions are conducted on a pooled data set for 49 states from 1975 to 2001. The analysis concludes that about two-fifths of the decrease is due to factors such as reduced drunk driving and improved emergency medical response that have improved safety on all parts of the highway network. The installation of gates and/or flashing lights accounts for about a fifth of the reduction. The development in the 1970s and early 1980s of the Operation Lifesaver public education campaign, and the installation of additional lights on locomotives in the mid 1990s, each led to about a seventh of the reduction. Finally, about a tenth is due to closure of crossings resulting from line abandonments or consolidation of little-used crossings.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00642.x
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    What Is a Life Worth? Robustness of VSL Values from Contingent Valuation Surveys (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a key input for estimating the benefits of policies that save lives. Several recent studies have obtained estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation surveys, i.e., by asking people to say how much they would pay to reduce their risk of dying. This article examines statistical factors that may influence the estimates of the VSL obtained from such surveys. We examine the importance of distributional assumptions, the choice of the welfare statistics of interest, the procedure for computing them, outliers, undesirable response effects, and internal validity of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses. We illustrate the importance of these factors using dichotomous-choice and open-ended WTP data from four recent contingent valuation surveys.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00646.x
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    Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Safety systems are important components of high-consequence systems that are intended to prevent the unintended operation of the system and thus the potentially significant negative consequences that could result from such an operation. This presentation investigates and illustrates formal procedures for assessing the uncertainty in the probability that a safety system will fail to operate as intended in an accident environment. Probability theory and evidence theory are introduced as possible mathematical structures for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty associated with the performance of safety systems, and a representation of this type is illustrated with a hypothetical safety system involving one weak link and one strong link that is exposed to a high temperature fire environment. Topics considered include (1) the nature of diffuse uncertainty information involving a system and its environment, (2) the conversion of diffuse uncertainty information into the mathematical structures associated with probability theory and evidence theory, and (3) the propagation of these uncertainty structures through a model for a safety system to obtain representations in the context of probability theory and evidence theory of the uncertainty in the probability that the safety system will fail to operate as intended. The results suggest that evidence theory provides a potentially valuable representational tool for the display of the implications of significant epistemic uncertainty in inputs to complex analyses.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00644.x
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    Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00645.x
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    An Interagency Comparison of Screening-Level Risk Assessment Approaches (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Approaches to risk assessment have been shown to vary among regulatory agencies and across jurisdictional boundaries according to the different assumptions and justifications used. Approaches to screening-level risk assessment from six international agencies were applied to an urban case study focusing on benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) exposure and compared in order to provide insight into the differences between agency methods, assumptions, and justifications. Exposure estimates ranged four-fold, with most of the dose stemming from exposure to animal products (8–73%) and plant products (24–88%). Total cancer risk across agencies varied by two orders of magnitude, with exposure to air and plant and animal products contributing most to total cancer risk, while the air contribution showed the greatest variability (1–99%). Variability in cancer risk of 100-fold was attributed to choices of toxicological reference values (TRVs), either based on a combination of epidemiological and animal data, or on animal data. The contribution and importance of the urban exposure pathway for cancer risk varied according to the TRV and, ultimately, according to differences in risk assessment assumptions and guidance. While all agency risk assessment methods are predicated on science, the study results suggest that the largest impact on the differential assessment of risk by international agencies comes from policy and judgment, rather than science.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00649.x
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    A Numerical Solution to the Nonhomogeneous Two-Stage MVK Model of Cancer (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In this article, we describe a straightforward method for solving the probability of at least one malignant cell by time t, and the associated hazard function, in the general (i.e., nonhomogeneous) two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model of cancer. The method consists of solving four coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Kolmogorov backward equations for this process. The relationship of this method to previously proposed solutions is discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00651.x
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    Benchmark Dose of Lead Inducing Anemia at the Workplace (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: To estimate the critical dose of lead inducing anemia in humans, the effects of lead on hemoglobin (Hb) and hematocrit (Hct) levels and red blood cell (RBC) count were examined in 388 male lead-exposed workers with blood lead (BPb) levels of 0.05–5.5 (mean 1.3) μmol/L by using the benchmark dose (BMD) approach. The BPb level was significantly related to Hb (regression coefficient β=–0.276), RBC (β=–11.35), and Hct (β=–0.563) among the workers (p 〈 0.001) when controlling for age and working status. The average BPb levels were significantly higher in the workers with anemia (1.85 μmol/L), based on the WHO criteria, than in those without anemia (1.26 μmol/L). The benchmark dose levels of BPb (i.e., lower 95% confidence limits of BMD), calculated from the K-power model set at an abnormal probability of 5% in unexposed workers and an excess risk of 5% in exposed workers were estimated to be 0.94 μmol/L (19.5 μg/dl) for Hb, 0.94 μmol/L (19.4 μg/dl) for RBC, and 1.43 μmol/L (29.6 μg/dl) for Hct. These findings suggest that reduction in hematopoietic indicators may be initiated at BPbs below the level currently considered without effect.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00652.x
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    Optimal Tracking and Testing of U.S. and Canadian Herds for BSE: A Value-of-Information (VOI) Approach (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) tests a subset of cattle slaughtered in the United States for bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE). Knowing the origin of cattle (U.S. vs. Canadian) at testing could enable new testing or surveillance policies based on the origin of cattle testing positive. For example, if a Canadian cow tests positive for BSE, while no U.S. origin cattle do, the United States could subject Canadian cattle to more stringent testing. This article illustrates the application of a value-of-information (VOI) framework to quantify and compare potential economic costs to the United States of implementing tracking cattle origins to the costs of not doing so. The potential economic value of information from a tracking program is estimated to exceed its costs by more than five-fold if such information can reduce future losses in export and domestic markets and reduce future testing costs required to reassure or win back customers. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this conclusion is somewhat robust to many technical, scientific, and market uncertainties, including the current prevalence of BSE in the United States and/or Canada and the likely reactions of consumers to possible future discoveries of BSE in the United States and/or Canada. Indeed, the potential value of tracking information is great enough to justify locating and tracking Canadian cattle already in the United States when this can be done for a reasonable cost. If aggressive tracking and testing can win back lost exports, then the VOI of a tracking program may increase to over half a billion dollars per year.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00648.x
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    A Benefit-Cost Analysis of Retrofitting Diesel Vehicles with Particulate Filters in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In the Mexico City metropolitan area, poor air quality is a public health concern. Diesel vehicles contribute significantly to the emissions that are most harmful to health. Harmful diesel emissions can be reduced by retrofitting vehicles with one of several technologies, including diesel particulate filters. We quantified the social costs and benefits, including health benefits, of retrofitting diesel vehicles in Mexico City with catalyzed diesel particulate filters, actively regenerating diesel particulate filters, or diesel oxidation catalysts, either immediately or in 2010, when capital costs are expected to be lower. Retrofit with either type of diesel particulate filter or an oxidation catalyst is expected to provide net benefits to society beginning immediately and in 2010. At current prices, retrofit with an oxidation catalyst provides greatest net benefits. However, as capital costs decrease, retrofit with diesel particulate filters is expected to provide greater net benefits. In both scenarios, retrofit of older, dirtier vehicles that circulate only within the city provides greatest benefits, and retrofit with oxidation catalysts provides greater health benefits per dollar spent than retrofit with particulate filters. Uncertainty about the magnitude of net benefits of a retrofit program is significant. Results are most sensitive to values used to calculate benefits, such as the concentration-response coefficient, intake fraction (a measure of exposure), and the monetary value of health benefits.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00650.x
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    Improbability of Igneous Intrusion Promoting a Critical Event in Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposed in Unsaturated Tuff (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In their regulations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission permit the omission of features, events, or processes with probabilities of 〈10−4 in 104 yr (e.g., a constant frequency of 〈10−8 per yr) in assessments of the performance of radioactive waste disposal systems. Igneous intrusion (or “volcanism”) of a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain for radioactive waste is one disruptive event that has a probability with a range of uncertainty that straddles this regulatory criterion and is considered directly in performance assessment calculations. A self-sustained nuclear chain reaction (or “criticality”) is another potentially disruptive event to consider, although it was never found to be important when evaluating the efficacy of radioactive waste disposal since the early 1970s. The thesis of this article is that the consideration of the joint event—volcanism and criticality—occurring in any 10,000-year period following closure can be eliminated from performance calculations at Yucca Mountain. The probability of the joint event must be less than the fairly well-accepted but low probability of volcanism. Furthermore, volcanism does not “remove” or “fail” existing hydrologic or geochemical constraints at Yucca Mountain that tend to prevent concentration of fissile material. Prior to general corrosion failure of waste packages, the mean release of fissile mass caused by a low-probability, igneous intrusive event is so small that the probability of a critical event is remote, even for highly enriched spent nuclear fuel owned by the U.S. Department of Energy. After widespread failure of packages occurs, the probability of the joint event is less than the probability of criticality because of the very small influence of volcanism on the mean fissile mass release. Hence, volcanism plays an insignificant role in inducing criticality over any 104-yr period. We also argue that the Oklo reactors serve as a natural analogue and provide a rough bound on probability of criticality given favorable hydrologic or geochemical conditions on the scale of the repository that is less than 0.10. Because the product of this bound with the probability of volcanism represents the probability of the joint event and the product is less than 10−4 in 104 yr, consideration of the joint event can be eliminated from performance calculations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00653.x
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    Understanding Organizational Safety Using Value-Focused Thinking (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Decision analysis is recognized as the right way to make risk management decisions, using probabilistic techniques to assess the accident risk. It is also accepted that the decisions that individuals in the organization make affect the likelihood of an accident and thus managerial and organizational factors should be included in the risk modeling process. However, decision analytic techniques have not been used to understand the decisions that are made by these individuals. The initial domain for this research is marine transportation. We use the framework of value-focused thinking in order to understand safety decisions made within our research partner organization, a major domestic oil tanker operator. We describe the results of interviews held with managers and employees from this organization. Through these interviews, we sought to understand the values these experts apply in their roles within the organization and the objectives they seek to achieve to contribute to its overall safety performance. The end result is a framework that not only portrays the fundamental objectives of safe operations for various roles in the organization, but also interconnects these different decision contexts. We believe that this approach is fundamentally different from those used in previous work and that this is an interesting application of value-focused thinking.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00654.x
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    Empirical Bayes and Adjusted Estimates Approach to Estimating the Relation of Mortality to Exposure of PM10 (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Forward Links to Citing Articles 
 
 Retraction. In the framework of the APHEIS program (Air Pollution and Health: A European Information System), a health impact assessment of air pollution in 26 European cities was performed for particles of an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10). For short-term effects, it was based on overall estimates from the APHEA-2 project (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach). These city-specific risk assessments require city-specific concentration-response functions, raising the question of which concentration-response is most appropriate. Estimates from city-specific models are more specific, but have greater uncertainty than those provided from multicity analyses. We compared several estimates derived from the city-specific analyses in cities that were part of the APHEA-2 project, as well as in a city that was not included in APHEA-2 but was part of the APHEIS project. These estimates were: the estimates from a local regression model, the adjusted estimates based on two significant effect modifiers identified through meta-regression models, and the city-specific empirical Bayes (shrunken) estimates and their underlying distribution. The shrunken and adjusted estimates were used to improve the estimation of city-specific concentration-response function. From these different estimates, attributable numbers of deaths per year were calculated. The advantages and limits of the different approaches are discussed through real data and in a simulation study.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00606.x
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  • 92
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    “A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The weather forecast says that there is a “30% chance of rain,” and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like “It might rain tomorrow.” Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts––Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a “30% chance of rain tomorrow” means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow “30% of the time,” followed by “in 30% of the area.” To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x
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  • 93
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    Validation of a Method for Estimating Long-Term Exposures Based on Short-Term Measurements (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A method for estimating long-term exposures from short-term measurements is validated using data from a recent EPA study of exposure to fine particles. The method was developed a decade ago but long-term exposure data to validate it did not exist until recently. In this article, exposure data from repeated visits to 37 persons over 1 year (up to 28 measurements per person) are used to test the model. Both fine particle mass and elemental concentrations measured indoors, outdoors, and on the person are examined. To provide the most stringent test of the method, only two single-day distributions are randomly selected for each element to predict the long-term distributions. The precision of the method in estimating the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation appears to be of the order of 10%, with no apparent bias. The precision in estimating the 99th percentile ranges from 19% to 48%, again without obvious bias. The precision can be improved by selecting a number of pairs of single-day distributions instead of just one pair. Occasionally, the method fails to provide an estimate for the long-term distribution. In that case, a repeat of the random selection procedure can provide an estimate. Although the method assumes a log-normal distribution, most of the distributions tested failed the chi-square test for log-normality. Therefore, the method appears suitable for application to distributions that depart from log-normality.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00045-i1
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  • 94
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    Genetic Diversity of Invasive Species in the Great Lakes Versus Their Eurasian Source Populations: Insights for Risk Analysis (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Combining DNA variation data and risk assessment procedures offers important diagnostic and monitoring tools for evaluating the relative success of exotic species invasions. Risk assessment may allow us to understand how the numbers of founding individuals, genetic variants, population sources, and introduction events affect successful establishment and spread. This is particularly important in habitats that are “hotbeds” for invasive species—such as the North American Great Lakes. This study compares genetic variability and its application to risk assessment within and among three Eurasian groups and five species that successfully invaded the Great Lakes during the mid 1980s through early 1990s; including zebra and quagga mussels, round and tubenose gobies, and the ruffe. DNA sequences are compared from exotic and native populations in order to evaluate the role of genetic diversity in invasions. Close relatives are also examined, since they often invade in concert and several are saline tolerant and are likely to spread to North American estuaries. Results show that very high genetic diversity characterizes the invasions of all five species, indicating that they were founded by very large numbers of propagules and underwent no founder effects. Genetic evidence points to multiple invasion sources for both dreissenid and goby species, which appears related to especially rapid spread and widespread colonization success in a variety of habitats. In contrast, results show that the ruffe population in the Great Lakes originated from a single founding population source from the Elbe River drainage. Both the Great Lakes and the Elbe River populations of ruffe have similar genetic diversity levels—showing no founder effect, as in the other invasive species. In conclusion, high genetic variability, large numbers of founders, and multiple founding sources likely significantly contribute to the risk of an exotic species introduction's success and persistence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00655.x
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  • 95
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    Testing and Expanding a Model of Cognitive Processing of Risk Information (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Scholars have begun to explore the role of modes of information processing and related audience characteristics in reactions to risky situations and risk information.(11, 12, 14, 17, 18, 20)“Information processing” concerns how people attend to and consider available information: systematic processors analyze messages and situations carefully, while heuristic processors skim and use cues (e.g., opinions of trusted reference groups) for quick judgments. This article uses scenarios about a semi-hypothetical industrial facility, in particular risk comparisons being considered by its manager for inclusion in a talk to the community, to explore the impact of information processing. Information insufficiency, self-assessed capacity to understand information, and information-seeking propensities are tested for potential effects on information processing about industrial risks by people living near industry. As well as testing established models, this article explores the additional explanatory value of involvement, relevance, and ability (Earle et al., 1990) and objective knowledge. Both existing model variables and new ones have significant effects on information seeking and information processing in this case, and partly confirm earlier results. Trumbo(17,18) found that heuristic processors saw lower risk and systematic processors higher risk from suspected cancer clusters. In this study, reporting knowledge about local industrial risks as insufficient for one's purposes and self-reported avoidance of such information both raised ratings of the facility's risk and lowered ratings of its acceptability. Neither type of information processing significantly affected risk or acceptability judgments, but both increased risk ratings and heuristic processing had more effect than systematic processing. Positive ratings of risk comparisons' clarity and meaningfulness decreased risk and increased acceptability ratings, dominated other information variables in predictive power, and exceeded risk, benefit, and trust in contribution to acceptability judgments. Despite differences across studies in designs and variables, and the embryonic development of appropriate (self-reported) measures for use in field surveys, these results confirm the potential value of further research in how information seeking and processing affect risk beliefs and reactions to risk communications.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00609.x
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  • 96
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    Approximations and Heuristics for the “Cause-Modified” Life Table (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Life-table analysis can help to gauge the lifetime impacts that accrue from modifications to (age-specific) baseline mortality. Modifications of interest include those stemming from risk-factor-related exposures or from interventions. The specific algorithm used in these analyses can be called a cause-modified life table (a generalization of the cause-deleted life table). The author presents an approach for approximating that algorithm and uses it to obtain remarkably simplified expressions for approximating three indices of common interest: life-years lost (LYL), excess lifetime risk ratio (ELRR), and risk of exposure-induced death (REID). These efforts are restricted to the special case of multiplicative increases to baseline mortality (modeled as an excess rate ratio, ERR). The simplified expressions effectively “break open” what is often treated as a “black-box” calculation. Several insights result. For a practical range of risk factor impacts (ERRs), each index can be related to the ERR as a function of a baseline summary statistic and a “characteristic number” specific to the population and cause of interest. Conveniently, those numbers help form “rules of thumb” for translating among the three indices and suggest heuristics for extrapolating indices across populations and causes of death.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00610.x
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    Hazardous Factories: Nigerian Evidence (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The past 15 years have seen an increasing governmental and corporate concern for the environment worldwide. For governments, information about the environmental performance of the industrial sector is required to inform macro-level decisions about environmental targets such as those required to meet UN directives. However, in many African, Asian, and Latin American countries, researching and reporting company environmental performance is limited. This article serves as a contribution to filling the gap by presenting evidence of physical and chemical risk in Nigerian factories. One hundred and three factories with a total of 5,021 workers were studied. One hundred and twenty physical and chemical hazards were identified and the result shows a high number of workers exposed to such hazards. The study also reveals that workers' awareness level of chemical hazards was high. Yet the danger was perceived in behavioral terms, especially by manufacturing firms, which tend to see environmental investment in an increasingly global economy as detrimental to profitability.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00614.x
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    Priority Setting for the Distribution of Localized Hazard Protection (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We address the problem of distributing safety-enhancing devices across a region, where each identical device provides for only local protection of the population. The devices protect nonidentical sectors of the population. The sectors of population are exposed to nonidentical intensities of hazard. A method for the screening and prioritizing of needs for the protective devices is described. An approach of risk-benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty is recommended as follows. Measures of hazard intensity and population exposure are identified. Exogenous parameters that influence assessments of risks, benefits, and costs are identified. Uncertainties of the exogenous parameters are propagated by interval analysis. Several tiers of the plausibility of need for protection are identified. The tiers are useful in setting priorities for the distribution of the safety devices. The method is demonstrated in an engineering application to roadway lighting, but has implications for disaster preparedness, anti-terrorism, transportation safety, and other arenas of public safety.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00611.x
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    Some Limitations of Qualitative Risk Rating Systems (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Qualitative systems for rating animal antimicrobial risks using ordered categorical labels such as “high,”“medium,” and “low” can potentially simplify risk assessment input requirements used to inform risk management decisions. But do they improve decisions? This article compares the results of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment systems and establishes some theoretical limitations on the extent to which they are compatible. In general, qualitative risk rating systems satisfying conditions found in real-world rating systems and guidance documents and proposed as reasonable make two types of errors: (1) Reversed rankings, i.e., assigning higher qualitative risk ratings to situations that have lower quantitative risks; and (2) Uninformative ratings, e.g., frequently assigning the most severe qualitative risk label (such as “high”) to situations with arbitrarily small quantitative risks and assigning the same ratings to risks that differ by many orders of magnitude. Therefore, despite their appealing consensus-building properties, flexibility, and appearance of thoughtful process in input requirements, qualitative rating systems as currently proposed often do not provide sufficient information to discriminate accurately between quantitatively small and quantitatively large risks. The value of information (VOI) that they provide for improving risk management decisions can be zero if most risks are small but a few are large, since qualitative ratings may then be unable to confidently distinguish the large risks from the small. These limitations suggest that it is important to continue to develop and apply practical quantitative risk assessment methods, since qualitative ones are often unreliable.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00615.x
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  • 100
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    Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rabies Entering Great Britain from North America via Cats and Dogs (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Great Britain has been rabies-free since 1922, which is often considered to be in part due to the strict laws requiring that imported cats and dogs be vaccinated and quarantined for 6 months immediately on entry into the country. Except for two isolated incidents, this quarantine policy has contributed to ensuring that Great Britain has remained free of rabies. In 2000, amendments to the UK quarantine laws were made and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was launched for companion animals traveling from European Union countries and rabies-free islands. Since its introduction, it has been proposed that other countries including North America should be included within the UK scheme. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to assist in the policy decision to amend the long-standing quarantine laws for dogs and cats from North America. It was determined that the risk of rabies entry is very low and is dependent on the level of compliance (i.e., legally conforming to all of the required regulations) with PETS and the number of pets imported. Assuming 100% compliance with PETS and the current level of importation of cats and dogs from North America, the annual probability of importing rabies is lower for animals traveling via PETS (7.22 × 10−6, 95th percentile) than quarantine (1.01 × 10−5, 95th percentile). These results, and other scientific evidence, directly informed the decision to expand the PETS scheme to North America as of December 2002.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00613.x
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