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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 195-204 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Infinite dam ; resolvent operator ; Lévy process ; integrated Markov chain
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We consider an infinite-capacity storage system. The cumulative input to the system is assumed to be either (a) a non-decreasing Lévy process or (b) an integrated continuous-time Markov chain. Reward accumulates at a rate depending on the instantaneous release rate. The objective is to choose the release rule in such a way as to maximize the expected total discounted return. In this note we show how to determine the expected discounted return when the release rate is either constant or a linear function of the content.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 213-239 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic hydrology ; perturbation ; random fields ; graph theory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Nonlinear interactions and feedbacks in frontal dynamics are studied with two-dimensional quasigeostrophic, semigeostrophic and primitive equation models for given cases of moderate surface cold fronts. According to the degree of approximation these feedbacks are in effect as a result of geostrophic and ageostrophic advection configuring the further frontal development and the associated energy-transfers between the geostrophic and the ageostrophic scales. The most prominent feedback processes, including the feedback connected with the ageostrophic along-front windv ag , are theoretically reviewed. In cases of smallv ag values, their effects on form and horizontal scale of the frontal secondary circulation are discussed by comparing the products of different model versions and the cross-frontal spectral analysis of the ageostrophic wind fields. To scrutinize the role played by thev ag -field, further experiments were based on a hierarchy ofv ag -substitutes parameterized by the momentum equation of the crossfrontal winddu/dt=fv ag . Tentative results show the tendency towards very localized effects.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 405-423 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper investigates the distribution chain of foodstuffs from the factory or port to the customer, from the point of view of the different energy inputs needed. Connections between the changes in the structure of the distribution system and changes in energy consumption are looked for. A model is developed for an energy audit of a distribution system. It is used to calculate the energy requirements of the Finnish food distribution system in the recent past, at present, and for a partial rearrangement of the system, i.e., with home deliveries replacing shopping trips by car. All parts of the distribution system have become more energy intensive as the structure of the distribution system has changed over time. The items related to households stand out as the largest energy consumers. The home delivery example shows an energy conservation potential worth pursuing further.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 369-387 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper provides an overview of the evolution of interregional disparities in Europe and in the United States in recent decades, considering also the changes that economic integration over the 1990s and beyond may bring. The assumptions of the existing paradigms on differential regional change are placed in perspective, by relating them to past and ongoing changes in interregional disparities. Data on the European (EC) and United States cases are analyzed, providing insights into past performance and into its possible causes. A final section then discusses the characteristics of regional inversion processes, and their potential for reducing interregional disparities as economic integration advances. These macro-level characteristics are related to micro-level processes in which innovation (technological, organizational, institutional) plays a central role, allowing less developed regions to bypass a rigid or static domestic spatial division of labor through the inversion process.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Unbiased plotting position ; General Extreme Value distribution ; order statistics
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Expressions for the expected values of GEV order statistics have been derived in simple summation form and in terms of probability weighted moments. Using exact plotting positions from GEV order statistics a new unbiased plotting position formula has been developed for the General Extreme Value distribution. The formula can, explicitly, take into account the coefficient of skewness, γ (or the shape parameter, k), of the underlying distribution. The developed formula better approximates the exact plotting positions as compared to other existing formulae and is quite easy to use.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 14-32 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic hydrology ; random fields ; space transformation ; perturbation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper develops concepts and methods to study stochastic hydrologic models. Problems regarding the application of the existing stochastic approaches in the study of groundwater flow are acknowledged, and an attempt is made to develop efficient means for their solution. These problems include: the spatial multi-dimensionality of the differential equation models governing transport-type phenomena; physically unrealistic assumptions and approximations and the inadequacy of the ordinary perturbation techniques. Multi-dimensionality creates serious mathematical and technical difficulties in the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow, due to the need for large mesh sizes and the poorly conditioned matrices arising from numerical approximations. An alternative to the purely computational approach is to simplify the complex partial differential equations analytically. This can be achieved efficiently by means of a space transformation approach, which transforms the original multi-dimensional problem to a much simpler unidimensional space. The space transformation method is applied to stochastic partial differential equations whose coefficients are random functions of space and/or time. Such equations constitute an integral part of groundwater flow and solute transport. Ordinary perturbation methods for studying stochastic flow equations are in many cases physically inadequate and may lead to questionable approximations of the actual flow. To address these problems, a perturbation analysis based on Feynman-diagram expansions is proposed in this paper. This approach incorporates important information on spatial variability and fulfills essential physical requirements, both important advantages over ordinary hydrologic perturbation techniques. Moreover, the diagram-expansion approach reduces the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance function.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 41-65 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Moment ratio diagrams ; Log-Pearson Type III ; Generalized Gamma ; geometric mean ; harmonic mean
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We refocus attention on moment ratio diagrams and their uses in hydrology with four major objectives: (1) to summarize the information available in the literature about possible uses of the traditional moment ratio diagram introduced by Karl Pearson, which uses the coefficient of skewness and of kurtosis to compare the shapes of various distributions commonly used in hydrology; (2) to complete this traditional MRD by integrating into it the regions occupied by the log-Pearson Type III and generalized gamma distributions which are more and more used in hydrology; (3) to present another MRD which uses ratios of moments of orders −1 (harmonic mean), quasi zero (geometric mean) and 1 (arithmetic mean); (4) to stress the need to consider the different MRD's (along with the more recently introduced L-moment ratio diagrams) as complementary tools for choosing between distributions fitted to hydrologic data. Finally, using Monte Carlo simulation we compare the two types of diagrams as tools to identify and discriminate between different distributions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 109-130 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Particle models ; transport equations ; parameter identification ; adjoint modelling ; cost function ; gradient
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract For the simulation of the transport of dissolved matter particle models can be used. In this paper a technique is developed for the identification of uncertain parameters in these models. This model calibration is formulated as an optimization problem and is solved with a gradient based algorithm. Here adjoint particle tracks are used for the calculation of the gradient of the cost function. The performance of the calibration method is illustrated by simulations and an application to a river Rhine water quality calamity in November 1986.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 146-160 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): EOF analysis ; numerical approximations ; sampling effects
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of spatial random fields involves calculation of the eigenfunctions of the covariance kernel of the field. For real-world applications, a numerical approximation is necessary because the process is spatially discretized. An approximation for two-dimensional fields is proposed and then, analytical solutions of the integral problem are derived and used to study the accuracy of the numerical approximations. Sampling effects are also considered.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 11
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 66-82 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Parameter identification ; multiscale ; transport ; adaptive
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Large scale fluctuations in the conductivity field are regionalized and estimated via a maximum likelihood, adjoint-state methodology. Small-scale fluctuations within each region are estimated adaptively via a Kalman-like stochastic filter. The variance and integral scale within each region are assumed to control the small-scale fluctuations. A Monte Carlo technique is used to examine the distribution of large-scale conductivity estimates.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 12
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 83-83 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 13
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 33-40 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Fractal ; flood-frequency ; scale-invariant
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract In order to study historical flood-frequency records we plot the log of the number of floods on a river per unit time in which the peak discharge exceeds a specified value against the log of that value. For ten benchmark stations we find good correlations with scale-invariant (fractal) statistics. We suggest that the underlying physical processes associated with the generation of floods are sufficiently scale invariant over time scales from one to one hundred years that they provide a rational basis for the application of scale-invariant statistics. Our results fall within the range of flood-frequency estimates made by other statistical techniques. We propose that the ratio of the ten-year peak discharge to the one-year peak discharge β is a quantitative measure of flood potential. With scale invariance β is also the ratio of the one-hundred year flood to the ten-year flood. We find that the values of β for ten stations on rivers throughout the country range from 2.04 to 8.11 and find strong regional variations that can be correlated in terms of climate. Our results are consistent with the observed fractal statistics in sedimentary sections. We have also carried out R/S analyses for the ten stations and have obtained values of the Hurst exponent. We find that the Hurst exponent cannot be used for flood-frequency forecasting.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 14
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 131-145 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Safety ; reliability analysis ; uncertainty analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 15
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 102-108 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Sedimentation ; probability density function ; synthetic study ; development
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract An important problem in sedimentation analysis is the development of a channel section that preserves, as best as possible, the current sedimentation regime even though the flood frequency tendencies have been altered due to land development within the catchment. In order to accomplish this task, a methodology is needed that estimates sediment transport capacity for various channel configurations. Such a procedure is described which allows the computation of the total sediment transport capacity for each of several T-year return frequency runoff hydrographs. This information is used to obtain an approximate probability distribution for the total sediment transport capacity, and the mean and standard deviation of this distribution are computed. Comparing the results for the catchment in its present state with a future developed state, using a selection of new channel parameters, indicates how to improve the channel to control changes in sedimentation due to development. The analysis procedure provides a basis for estimating a new channel configuration such that the new flow conditions retain, as best as possible, the existing condition sedimentation effects, and hence retain the natural sediment supply and transport trends even though runoff flow rates have changed due to land development within the catchment. The results of Wilson Creek are typical of the several sites examined, see Table 3 below. The T=2, T=5, T=25, and T=100 year values for total sediment transport capacity, in kilotons, are 6.9, 39.4, 61.3, and 96.7 with a mean of 17.1 and standard deviation of 19.3. After development with no change in the channel the respective values increase to: 17.9, 84.6, 128.1, and 258.0 with a mean of 39.1 and standard deviation of 44.3. A new channel can be constructed which will reduce these sediment transport capacity values, after development, to 5.2, 41.0, 62.0, and 124.8 with a mean of 17.4 and standard deviation of 22.0.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 16
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 163-177 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was employed to derive a new method of parameter estimation for the 3-parameter log-logistic distribution (LLD3). Monte Carlo simulated data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Simulation results showed that POME's performance was superior in predicting quantiles of large recurrence intervals when population skew was greater than or equal to 2.0. In all other cases, POME's performance was comparable to other methods.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 17
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 179-194 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Hydrological processes ; power laws ; spurious self-correlation ; lake hydrology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Empirical power laws are frequently used to relate parameters in complex hydrological and hydrometeorological processes. The validity of power laws relating two parameters with a common variable may be compromised by spurious influences of the common variable. Theoretical results are presented that allow both the spurious self-correlation coefficient and the slope of a spurious self-correlation to be determineda priori. Raising a common variable to a higher power in either parameter amplifies the spurious effects. Power law regression equations are not single-valued analytical functions and must not be treated as such. Because of the strong influence of a common variable on the correlation coefficient, the transfer of a common variable from one side of a power-law regression equation to another (by cross-multiplying) may severely distort the results. Examples from lake hydrology are presented.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 18
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 255-268 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Groundwater hydrology ; solute transport ; master equation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The mean value of a density of a “cloud of points” described by a generalized Liouville equation associated with a convection dispersion equation governing adsorbing solute transport yields a joint concentration probability density. The general technique can be applied for either linear or nonlinear adsorption; here the application is restricted to linear adsorption in one-dimensional transport. The equation generated for the joint concentration probability density is in the general form of a Fokker-Planck equation, but with a suitable coordinate transformation, it is possible to represent it as a diffusion equation with variable coefficients.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 19
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 283-297 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A stochastic flood model with a Weibull distribution for flood exceedances is examined and compared to the traditional exponential-based model in terms of predictive and descriptive properties. The model is based upon the traditional representation of the flood mechanism as a Poisson counting process. It is expected that the more flexible Weibull distribution will be capable of modeling flood series which exhibit a wider range of variability than the exponential model. The Weibull-based model is shown to possess predictive properties which are superior to the exponential model when samples exhibit coefficients of variation less than 1.5 and sample sizes are on the order of 2 events per year. These characteristics are shown to exist in many observed flood series in the Gulf Coast of the United States.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 20
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 269-281 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Runoff ; stochastic interpolation ; objective analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The paper treats the problem of interpolating annual runoff from regular streamflow measurements in a regional scale applying objective methods. These methods are adapted to point processes like temperature and precipitation. Modifications are needed to account for the fact that streamflow is an integrated process following the hierarchical structure of river systems. The most straightforward method is therefore to relate the interpolation to the existing river network. For theoretical reasons it is preferable to interpolate the lateral inflow rather than the flow in the river itself. Procedures for the interpolation with the different approaches are developed and discussed. Special attention is put on the question how the equation of continuity can be satisfied. The Laagen drainage basin in southern Norway is used as a test area. The data consist of annual observations of streamflow and digital map information on river networks and drainage basin boundaries.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 21
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 101-102 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 22
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 135-143 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents a general overview of strategies relevant to strengthen the network potential of Swedish medium-sized cities. In several respects, these cities have reached dominant positions in their regional framework. In the emerging network economy, industrial firms and service institutions become increasingly exposed to competition, not only within the national framework but also in the international context. Several medium-sized cities in Sweden are in a vulnerable position. They are in need of the development of new types of strategies. The most vital aspects are to develop an entrepreneurial urban governance, to strengthen import links which promote new specialization efforts, to establish strategic alliances with other cities, and to finance the renewal of infrastructure.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 23
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 159-176 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The length of time that individuals are unemployed has considerable political and policy significance. Important questions about the factors influencing the duration of unemployment remain to be answered. The purpose of this paper is to carry out an empirical investigation of the factors that cause unemployment to be of a longer or shorter duration. Such factors are identified within a micro-economic framework drawn from human capital and job search theories. Event history methods and panel data are used to model unemployment duration. The data come from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) which contains weekly information on labor force status over about a two and a half year period, as well as data on a number of individual and locational attributes. Evidence from the empirical investigation suggests that migration, temporary layoff and income during unemployment combine with individual characteristics to influence the duration of unemployment spells.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 24
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 221-237 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Methods for examining interdependencies between the timing of migration events and other major events in the life histories of individuals are presented. Individual locational histories are treated as realizations of discrete-state, continuous-time random variables, with migration or mobility events corresponding to transitions between states. The timing of migration is compared to the timing of other transitions in individual life histories, including changes in household organization and labor force status, by investigating the durations of time separating the two kinds of transitions. Empirical investigations are carried out using longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 25
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 239-256 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Existing utility-based models of complex choice behavior do not adequately deal with the interdependencies of chained choices. In this paper, we introduce a model of multi-purpose shopping which is aimed at overcoming this shortcoming. In the proposed model, dependencies between choices within as well as between trips are covered by a recursive definition of trip utility. The standard log-likelihood estimation procedure is used to calibrate the model. Simulation experiments show that estimation results are satisfactorily accurate and robust. Comparison of the model to a conventional choice model using simulated data indicates that even low tendencies to make multi-purpose trips have a significant influence on predicted destination choice. Furthermore, it is shown that conventional models do not satisfactorily predict simulated multi-purpose behavior.
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  • 26
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 283-295 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper seeks to continue the building of a common foundation for spatial statistics and geostatistics. Equations from the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model of spatial statistics for estimating missing geo-referenced data have been found to be exactly those best linear unbiased estimates obtained with the exponential semi-variogram model of kriging, but in terms of the inverse covariance matrix rather than the covariance matrix itself. Further articulation of such relations, between the moving average (MA) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) or autoregressive response (AR) models of spatial statistics, and, respectively, the linear and Gaussian semi-variogram models of kriging, is outlined. The exploratory graphical and numerical work summarized in this paper indicates the following: (a) there is evidence to pair the moving average and linear models; (b) the simultaneous autoregressive and autoregressive response model pair with a Bessel function (modified of the second kind and order one) rather than the Gaussian semi-variogram model; (c) both specification error and measurement error can give rise to the nugget effect discussed in geostatistics; (d) restricting estimation to a geographic subregion introduces edge effects that increasingly bias semi-variogram model parameter estimates as the degree of spatial autocorrelation increases toward its upper limit; and (e) the theoretical spectral density function for a simultaneous autoregressive model is a direct extension of that for the conditional autoregressive model.
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  • 27
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Papers in regional science 72 (1993), S. 313-335 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Choice problems are concerned with agents (such as individuals and firms) who have to select one alternative from a set of alternatives. Static models for such processes are well known, e.g., the multinomial logit model. However, such models are limited in their usefulness since the time factor is excluded. In addition, the introduction of social interaction among the individuals involved in the choice process is not allowed in most models. This paper aims to overcome these limitations. The choice process is treated in a stochastic framework, using a master equation approach. This means that uncertainties can be introduced in the perception of the relative advantages of the choice alternatives as seen by the agent. It is well known that synergy effects play a crucial role in most choice considerations. Those effects can be treated via the introduction of appropriate transition rates and yield the dynamics of the probability that a certain distribution of choices can be found, with the multinomial logit solution as a limiting case. Nested decision structures, i.e., decisions at a certain time that are influenced by all previous choices are of greater interest. The dynamic modeling of such a sequence of decisions requires new ideas and a detailed analysis of every single step. The possibility of both the arisal of new alternatives and of the disappearance of old ones must be taken into account. Small differences in subsequent utilities could lead to a dynamic selection process of a specific alternative. The stochastic choice model can be applied to problems of neural networks, to innovation theory and travel choice, among others.
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  • 28
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 25-39 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary During the last phase of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme everyday launchings of high altitude balloons were carried out at three locations i.e. Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77.5°E), Hyderabad (17.2°N, 78.3°E) and Bhubaneshwar (21.3°N, 85.5°E) for measuring winds and temperature between 1 and 30 km altitude in a campaign mode from 23 January 1989 to 31 March 1989. The data thus obtained have been examined to determine the characteristics of tropical/equatorial waves. Spectral analysis of the time series (68 points) of both zonal and meridional wind components using Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) reveal the presence of waves with periods between 4–30 days. Strong oscillations centered around 5 days and 18 days seem to dominate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at all the three stations. While 5 day wave has an amplitude of about 2 m/s, the 18 day wave has an amplitude between 8–10 m/s in the zonal and 5–6 m/s in meridional component around tropopause. Its amplitude is maximum over Hyderabad and decreases somewhat on either side i.e. over Trivandrum and Bhubaneshwar. Weekly rocket wind data from Balasore near Bhubaneshwar show that 18–20 day wave continues to propagate vertically in the altitude range of 30–60 km. Temperature data also exhibits similar oscillations with amplitude of about 1 K for 4–5 day wave and 2–3 K for 18 day wave maximising just above tropopause (∼ 18 km). It is found that some of the observed wave modes, particularly the 18 day wave have characteristics matching those of forced Rossby wave rather than Kelvin wave while the 5 day and 9 day waves have characteristics matching those of mixed Rossby-gravity waves. The latter may be generated due to convective forcing in the troposphere while the former may be penetrating from the midlatitudes.
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  • 29
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 141-143 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 30
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The Swiss Middleland is a 300×50 km large plain embedded between the Jura, whose highest elevations are between 1000 and 2000m MSL, and the Alps, whose highest peaks are about 400m MSL. Because this plain is the main residence area of Switzerland with a great variety of emission sources, it is also a location with high photosmog concentrations during the summer months. Within the framework of the Swiss POLLUMET (Air Pollution and Meteorology) programme, an initial summer smog field experiment was carried out during July 1990 with the participation of different research groups from Switzerland and Germany. The measurements showed that the ozone concentrations within the atmospheric boundary layer were remarkably variable. The highest concentrations in the upper mixed layer varied between 100 and 130 ppb. The background ozone concentration in the upper atmospheric boundary layer increased from day to day. However, a clear indication of long-range transport could not be found. Remarkable local and regional concentration differences are not only based on the complex structure of the large emission sources (highways, urban plumes). They are also the result of the interaction of convectively driven motion systems like slope and valley winds and mountain-plain circulation.
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  • 31
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 165-176 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The Adélie Land coastal section of East Antarctica is known for strong katabatic winds. Although the primary forcing of these persistent drainage flows has been attributed to the radiative cooling of the sloping ice topography, effects of ambient horizontal pressure gradients can play a central role in shaping the Antarctic surface wind regime as well. Oberrvations of the katabatic wind at the near-coastal Adélie Land station D-10 have been sorted into strong and weak wind classes. Concurrent radiosonde ascents at nearby Dumont D'Urville have been used to depict the timeaveraged large scale conditions accompanying the katabatic wind classes. Results suggest that strong katabatic wind cases are associated with low pressure over the coastal margin and easterly upper level motions. Numerical simulations have been conducted to examine the effect of prescribed large scale forcing on the evolution of the katabatic wind. The model runs indicate that the ambient environment plays a key role in the development and intensity of the katabatic wind regime.
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  • 32
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 197-217 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The relationship between clouds and the surface radiative fluxes over the Arctic Ocean are explored by conducting a series of modelling experiments using a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model. The sensitivity of radiative flux to perturbations in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth are determined. These experiments illustrate the substantial effect that clouds have on the state of the sea ice and on the surface radiative fluxes. The effect of clouds on the net flux of radiation at the surface is very complex over the Arctic Ocean particularly due to the presence of the underlying sea ice. Owing to changes in surface albedo and temperature associated with changing cloud properties, there is a strong non-linearity between cloud properties and surface radiative fluxes. The model results are evaluated in three different contexts: 1) the sensitivity of the arctic surface radiation balance to uncertainties in cloud properties; 2) the impact of interannual variability in cloud characteristics on surface radiation fluxes and sea ice surface characteristics; and 3) the impact of climate change and the resulting changes in cloud properties on the surface radiation fluxes and sea ice characteristics.
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  • 33
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 153-163 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper employs a mobile capital version of the Harris-Todaro model to analyze the backward incidence of pollution abatement policies on some key variables of interest. Among other things, we show that national incomemay fall as a result of stronger pollution controls. However, more restrictive pollution controls cause the urban rate of unemployment to fall unambiguously.
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  • 34
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 143-152 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract A generalized version of the Heckscher-Ohlin model of trade has been developed by A. V. Deardorff for thel-factor,m-commodity, andn-country case. To test the validity of the Deardorff's model, first the factor content and commodity composition of trade between the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and the rest of the United States (ROUS) are estimated. These estimated values are then employed in a model to examine the degree of importance of relatively cheap energy and capital prices and relatively expensive wage rates in determining the level and composition of the PNW's trade with the rest of the United States. This study finds that the Pacific Northwest has a comparative advantage in the production of those goods which intensively use energy and capital and sparingly use labor in their production processes. This finding is, of course, in accord with the prediction of Deardorff's model.
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  • 35
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 191-210 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The relationship between producer supply areas and the location of production is considered for a particular class of manufacturing activity. The spatial structure of production is examined by means of a free-entry model, in which producers within a region compete for access to a dispersed commodity input. The situation at long-run equilibrium may be characterised in terms of the output of each producer, the size and shape of his supply area, and the frequency and spacing of producers. This is seen to depend on the prevailing price which is exogenously determined. Various features of the equilibrium are then discussed, including the manner in which it differs from the conventional competitive equilibrium.
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  • 36
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 295-296 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 37
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 315-326 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract A series of proportional hazards models are used to study the relationship between migration history and migration behavior for a sample of young adults from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The results support the argument that migration is a selective process. College educated young adults have a greater hazard rate of making an initial migration but a lower hazard rate of re-migration, suggesting they have less need of corrective geographic behavior. Individuals who have moved two or more times are less responsive to national unemployment conditions than first time migrants. Migration is related to the timing of unemployment within a sojourn. The findings suggest that migrant stock is an important determinant of how labor markets function.
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  • 38
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 95-115 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In modelling trade competition for final products within a sector, the assumption of product homogeneity is often quite unrealistic. Even where the demand for different versions of the product can be attributed to relatively independent submarkets, considerable heterogeneity may still exist within each submarket. For each submarket, such as that for a medium-priced family car, it is assumed that more product heterogeneity exists between countries or regions than within them. Heterogeneity between regions is related to the existence of importers, acting as intermediate agents, who make trade-offs between cif import prices of goods and the willingness-to-pay by consumers. Aggregate spatial supply and demand functions based on plausible distributional assumptions are presented and estimated using a unified theoretical basis for each regional grouping of producers, importers and consumers. Conditions for simultaneous equilibrium for these three sets of agents are established, and illustrated via a small numerical example.
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  • 39
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 259-283 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Recent research has emphasized path-dependence and the effect of vintage factors in urban development. Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are cities where the modern CBD is not in its historic location. Distance from the historic center is taken as a proxy of housing and infrastructure vintage. A polycentric urban population density function is used to assess the relative importance of distance from the CBD and from the historic center in explaining population density. Additionally, I examine econometrically the validity of a number of population density functions, and analyze the structure of the error variance and the design of appropriate measures of goodness of fit and hypothesis tests for regression models of population density. The results show that distance from the historical center is an important factor in explaining population density but its explanatory power has declined over time. It is more significant than distance from the CBD in explaining residential density in Tel Aviv and gross density in Jerusalem. It explains a larger proportion of the variance in gross density in the inner city than does distance from the CBD, but vice versa in the suburbs.
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  • 40
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 363-370 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper examines the stability of a free entry spatial equilibrium when firms set collusive Loschian prices. Drawing on developments in game theory it is shown that (Loschian) collusive pricing is feasible and sustainable only if firms earn excess profits. The final section of the paper briefly examines some of the comparative static properties of the model.
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  • 41
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 377-377 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 42
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 27 (1993), S. 285-293 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The role of a region as an appropriate entity for theoretical analysis is reviewed in the last several decades of English language economics literature. Concluding that regional analysis currently has a marginal role within theoretical economics, several suggestions are presented for research directions that would reinvigorate regional theory as a distinct part of economic inquiry. Suggestions include the use of concepts of industrial organization theory, such as fixed factor proportions for explaining regional resource utilization, the use of market size as a variable for explaining firm behavior at the regional level, and viewing a region as a set of inter-related institutions which can influence a region's growth path.
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  • 43
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 227-235 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A model of the polluted arctic troposphere is constructed to estimate the magnitude and seasonal variation of the climate forcing function of arctic haze. Using a pill-box “bathtub model” for the Arctic and envisioning it to be filled with pollution from industrial sources in Eurasia, we estimate that maximum climate perturbation from arctic contamination occurs in the spring months. The major perturbation to the radiation budget is a lowering of the albedo (heating) of the earth-atmosphere system around the vernal equinox and is due to a trace amount (about 5% by mass) of black carbon associated with the removal-resistant submicron mode of aerosols. The black carbon over the reflecting polar ice/snow introduces a heating of about 1.5 degree per day into the haze layer.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 44
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 69-89 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A simple one dimensional wind model, designed for diffusion calculations in flat environments with obstructions, is proposed. It covers the surface layer and up to a maximum height of 500 m with three levels. The lowest level is the internal boundary layer, in which the influence of the immediate environment is manifest. The second is the surface layer in which the wind profile is characterized by the fetch conditions further upstream. The third is the spiral layer, where the wind turns with height. The actual depth of the surface layer is estimated by the model. In both the surface layer and the internal boundary layer, Monin-Obukhov theory is applied. The spiral layer is represented by a classical Ekman-Taylor solution matched at the top of the surface layer. This conceptual model is then tested with data from a meteorological mast at Garching (near Munich, Germany).
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  • 45
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 91-100 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A one-dimensional kinematic model is used to investigate the effects of silver iodide seeding in the region of a Cb cloud between isotherms of −8°C and −12°C. The agent interaction with cloud atmosphere is simulated by an improved microphysical model version which includes phoretic processes. The behaviour of the different agent types is investigated using the maximum values of agent mixing ratios and corresponding agent particle masses and radii. It is shown that the agent residence time in the seeding zone significantly depends on vertical velocity. The residence time is comparable to that previously reported. On the other side, the final graupel production decreases slightly when vertical velocity increases, while the corresponding graupel production is quite different for agents used. The main agent nucleation mechanisms are the Brownian coagulation of cloud droplets, inertial impact of cloud droplets and deposition nucleation.
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  • 46
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 101-111 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC) limited area Eta Model predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) tropical cyclonesConnie, Irma, Damien andJason. The initial positions and intensities of the tropical cyclone vortices from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, which are used as initial data, do not quite agree with the observations. These disagreements produce additional erros in predicting the tropical cyclone tracks. To improve the initial position of the vortex, the flow is split into the small and the large scale motions, and during the first two hours of the integration, the small-scale part is forced in small steps towards its observed position. The adjustment is performaed with the reduced model dynamics (adjustment processes only) and no physics. With the adjustment during the first two hours of the integration, the model successfully adjusts to the new position of the initial vortex. After the completion of the adjustment stage, the model runs normally, i.e., without any modification. The tracks of the 48-h forecasts with the adjusted initial vortices are parallel to the tracks obtained in the control forecasts without the adjustment. However, e.g., the mean absolute error of the positions during 48-h forecast of the tropical cycloneConnie was reduced from 174 km in the control case to 129 km in the case with adjustment of the position. The latent heat, the thermal energy, the kinetic energy and the total energy of the extracted small scale vortices are calculated every three hours of the integration time. These small-scale energies obtained in the 48-h control forecast are compared to those of the rund with the initial vortex adjustment to monitor the “spin up” of the model.
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  • 47
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    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 113-127 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) has resulted in the first ever quality mesoscale data set in the Australian tropics. This provides the first observational confirmation of previous hypotheses, modelling experiments and refinement of the parametrization of convective processes. During the AMEX a large area of convective activity off northwestern Australia accompanied four tropical cyclones onset:Connie, Irma, Damien andJason. As already reported by the author, the Eta Model of the University of Belgrade and the National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC), successfully predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of these cyclones. Using again the AMEX tropical cyclone cases, in the present study the sensitivity of the Eta Model is examined with respect to the initial and boundary conditions, the vertical coordinate and orography, the location of the initial vortex, the surface fluxes of heat and moisture, the sea surface temperature and the Betts-Miller convection parametrization scheme. Also, some available forecasts of the AMEX tropical cyclones were intercompared. These included the forecasts obtained by the Eta Model, the T106 global (then) operational European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, the ECMWF T106 limited area model and the Florida State University (FSU) limited area model. A review of the intercomparison results suggests that the Eta Model is highly competitive with the other sophisticated models, both in terms of quality and the computational effort required.
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  • 48
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 129-135 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The spectral distributions of the pressure gradient force errors of the spectral and the finite-difference techniques used in combination with the σ vertical coordinate were examined in an idealized case of an atmosphere at rest and in hydrostatic equilibrium. The vertical temperature profile was piece-wise linear in lnp, with an inversion at the bottom. Trapezoidal mountains of different widths were used. The same amounts of input information were given to both the spectral and the finite-difference methods. In the rms sense, the spectral errors were generally much larger than those of the finite-difference method. However, on the larger and medium scales, a remarkable similarity of the error spectra of the two methods was found. The build up of the error of the spectral method occurs at the smallest scales. This may explain difficulties in documenting the error in higher resolution spectral models where the contribution to the total error in this part of the spectrum may be removed as the small-scale noise by the horizontal smoothing and/or filtering. In order to reduce the small-scale noise generation, the finite-difference pressure gradient force may be used in spectral models.
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  • 49
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 137-145 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The effect of simple quasi-nonhydrostatic approximations in a numerical model of a gravity current are discussed. Two methods for including non-hydrostatic effects are explored. The reasons for the limited success of a first method is discussed briefly.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Opposing wind region adjacent to the sea-breeze frontal zone on 20 September 1989 was investigated observationally using the data from a single Doppler radar measurement. Found are small-scale high wind cores located close to the zone. Their location is at the altitude of several hundred meters and their sizes are around several hundred meters. It is demonstrated that these cores have an effect of enhancing low-level wind shear associated with the sea-breeze frontal zone.
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  • 51
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 177-182 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary In this paper, a retrieval method is put forword to establish climatic model an empirical. Time series of monthly mean temperature (T), pressure (P) and rainfall (R) in Tianjin are used to retrieve a set of dynamical equations to describe approximately the local climate. The results show that the methodology appears to hold promise for a wide variety of applications. Last, the evolution characteristics and the interior interaction mechanism of the local climate are discussed.
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  • 52
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 153-167 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary An eddy effect of tropical deep convection on the large-scale momentum, resp vorticity budget is investigated. The process is specified by a simple parameterization approach which is based on a concept of rotating clouds exerting a momentum on the large-scale flow. The cloud rotation is associated with the thermal properties of a cloud ensemble by the principle of conservation of potential vorticity. A decomposition of cloud classes is applied in consistency with the thermodynamical parameterization scheme of Arakawa and Schubert (1974). The parameterization is tested with observations of GATE74, Phase III. The data are processed on a B/C-scale grid (55km) in a region within 9N and 16N, and between 21W and 27W, and with a vertical resolution of 41 levels. The parameterization results correspond to the observed patterns, especially in situations with strong large-scale wind shear. The findings suggest that certain large-scalle flow regimes provoke convective scale momentum generation rather than redistributing large-scale momentum by convective circulations.
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  • 53
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 169-175 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Lightning is more frequent in deep convective storms formed by conditional instability. It has been shown that conditional instability increases with the wet bulb potential temperature. The incidence of lightning in Gaborone, Botswana was monitored over a period of two years with a CGR3 flash counter. The data were compared with the measured wet bulb temperatures. The results indicate that the monthly lightning activity in Gaborone increases by an order of magnitude for every 2°C rise in wet bulb temperature. There is also evidence to show that, in general, the ratio of lightning incidence to rainfall is significantly reduced as the wet bulb temperature decreases. Periods of continuous rain over a few days were generally characterised by a fall in the wet bulb temperature with a corresponding decrease in lightning activity. In consistence, one such nine day period was observed where the lightning incidence was sustained right through when the wet bulb temperature did fall. However, there is some evidence to indicate that the relationship does not hold very well during unusual winter lightning activity.
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  • 54
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 183-203 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary An energy balance based statistical parameterization of the soil moisture availability has been developed and implemented in the Florida State University Global Spectral Model to test its performance in long range prediction. Specifically, a soil moisture parameter based on a moisture budget analysis has been introduced to estimate the Bowen ratio. It is expressed as an evolutive function of the model predicted rainfall and surface temperature and takes into account some of the ground characteristics through its dependence on albedo and surface elevation. This scheme is used in conjunction with a prognostic equation for surface temperature to estimate the different energy fluxes at the surface. A 42 waves triangular truncation global spectral model with 12 vertical levels has been used to perform parallel simulations, one of which includes the new planetary boundary layer parameterization. Seasonal simulations covering the onset and active phase of the West African monsoon have been carried out for the period between May and August 1979. A comprehensive comparison of the components of the surface energy balance between the two experiments has been carried out for different climatic regimes over the North African continent during the northern summer. The new scheme appears to capture the essence of the surface layer physics in a simple formulation of the processes and has introduced an interesting description of the surface fluxes. Significant modulation of the surface temperature and its diurnal cycle amplitude were obtained. This was particularly evident over arid zones where extremely high surface temperatures were predicted by a simpler scheme. An important and coherent interaction between the principal physical processes parameterized in the model has resulted from the introduction of the new scheme and has led to a better representation of the surface flux balance.
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  • 55
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 205-224 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The sensitivity of short-term climate to soil moisture parameterization has been investigated using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model. This is done through the implementation of a simple and realistic soil moisture availability in a prognostic equation for the surface temperature. The results from two seasonal simulations between 11 May and 31 August 1979 are discussed with an emphasis on the Sahelian regions. These experiments indicated that most of the significant changes that resulted from the new parameterization occurred at and near the surface. Above the surface, land surface effects were strongly diffused and for most of the cases were not conclusively discernible. At the surface, however, soil moisture appeared to be a parameter of large influence. Important modulations in the surface temperature were obtained. The time dependence of the soil moisture availability has led to an evolution of the surface heat sources in the model resulting in an apparent northward propagation of the centers of maximum temperature as the rainfall season progressed over the north African continent from May to August. This has had an important effect on the distribution of the primary variables and showed significant departures from the control. The interaction introduced by the new scheme between the physical processes parameterized in the model, has resulted in a differential modification of the rainfall distribution, and the changes in the hydrological cycle have remarkably affected the summer Sahelian rainfall.
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  • 56
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 85-101 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Runoff ; correlation ; drainage basin ; network
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The application of objective methods for interpolation of stochastic fields is based on the assumption of homogeneity with respect to the correlation function, i.e. only the relative distance between two points is of importance. This is not the case for runoff data which is demonstrated in this paper. Taking into consideration the structure of the river network and the related drainage basin supporting areas theoretical expressions are derived for the correlation function for flow along a river from its outlet and upstream. The results are exact for a rectangular drainage basin. For more complex basin geometry a grid approximation is suggested. The found relations are demonstrated on a real world example with a good agreement between the theoretically calculated correlation functions and empirical data.
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  • 57
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 161-162 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 58
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 205-212 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A Nearest Neighbor Method (NNM) is used to forecast daily river flows that were measured at a single location over a time period spanning about seventy years. A parsimonious three parameter NNM is developed in the context of Nonlinear Dynamics and the dependence between forecast error and length of history used to construct forecasts is investigated. Comparison is made to Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The NNM is found to provide improved forecasts.
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  • 59
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 241-253 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Parameter identification ; multiscale ; adaptive ; inverse
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract An inverse problem is posed in terms of log-conductivities which are decomposed into macroscale deterministic and microscale stochastic components. The macroscale and microscale conductivities conceptualize hierarchical, scale-dependent aquifer parameters. A deterministic parameter estimation scheme divides a flow domain into a limited number of macroscale constant conductivity zones. A stochastic microscale parameter estimation scheme is used to obtain fluctuations about the macroscale averages in terms of geostatistical models. Both the macroscale and the microscale conductivities are estimated via maximum likelihood, adjoint-state methodologies. Monte Carlo-type approaches are used to examine the distribution of macroscale and microscale conductivity estimates.
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  • 60
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 299-314 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Sediment transport model ; sensitivity analysis ; uncertainty analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Computerized sediment transport models are frequently employed to quantitatively simulate the movement of sediment materials in rivers. In spite of the deterministic nature of the models, the outputs are subject to uncertainty due to the inherent variability of many input parameters in time and in space, along with the lack of complete understanding of the involved processes. The commonly used first-order method for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses is to approximate a model by linear expansion at a selected point. Conclusions from the first-order method could be of limited use if the model responses drastically vary at different points in parameter space. To obtain the global sensitivity and uncertainty features of a sediment transport model over a larger input parameter space, the Latin hypercubic sampling technique along with regression procedures were employed. For the purpose of illustrating the methodologies, the computer model HEC2-SR was selected in this study. Through an example application, the results about the parameters sensitivity and uncertainty of water surface, bed elevation and sediment discharge were discussed.
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  • 61
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 41-54 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Differences in the convective potential of troughs passing over the plateau of southern Africa in the early summer are assessed using operational synoptic weather data and radiosonde time-height sections. Wet and dry trough cases are chosen on the basis of the intensity and distribution of rainfall, sharp thermodynamic changes across the plateau and the passage of a geopotential wave. Composite differences are computed and indicate a high-low geopotential anomaly in the east-west direction, and a threefold increase in precipi-table water from 15 mm in dry cases to 28 mm in wet cases. The 500 hPa structure obtained by differencing wet and dry composites is dominated by low geopotentials and cyclonic vorticity over the plateau near 25°S, 25°E, and high geopotentials and anticyclonic vorticity to the south over the oceans near 40°S, 30°E. The dipole anomaly suggests a diffluent tilted baroclinic wave in the subtropical jet stream in convective cases. A double jet streak structure in the wet events enhances upper divergence which contributes to widespread uplift in the mid-troposphere. A case study comparison highlights the importance of pre-frontal moist influx, the kinematic trigger and thermodynamic instability.
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  • 62
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The performance of three different vertical mixing schemes embedded in a global coarse resolution OGCM under both annual and monthly mean forcing are compared. These schemes are the integral model of Kraus and Turner and the differential parametrisations of Pacanowski and Philander and Henderson-Sellers (EDD1 scheme). The simulations of mean climatological conditions suggest that, with respect to climate change studies, the Kraus-Turner and the EDD1 schemes are overall more robust than the Pacanowski and Philander parametrisation. With respect to anomalous climatic conditions (i.e. decay of imposed SST anomalies), all three schemes indicate that the lifespan and penetration depth of a cold anomaly is somewhat greater than for a warm one. Also, the EDD1 scheme portrays the evolution process of the SST anomalies somewhat differently than the other two schemes.
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  • 63
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 139-140 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 64
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 101-115 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Tropical cyclones (TC) in the data-sparse SW Indian Ocean region are studied through climatological and statistical associations and case study structure. Differences between summers with more and less TC are identified with a view to the prediction of seasonal frequencies. In summers with more TC, upper easterlies and lower westerlies over the equatorial zone north of Madagascar form a Walker cell anomaly in conjunction with the east phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), while sea surface temperatures (SST) are above normal in the preceding spring (〉28°C). In the sub-tropics, easterly trade winds strengthen while mid-latitude westerlies shift polewards and SST are below normal (〈23°C). OLR departures in “more TC” summers are 〈−15 Wm−2 over region frequented by tropical cyclones. Two tropical cyclone events are selected for analysis which rank highest in terms of rainfall on Mauritius. Danielle formed near 13°S, 65°E and tracked southwest across Mauritius on 19 January 1964. A radiosonde time-height section is analysed for departures from climatology and thermodynamic structure. The profile of equivalent potential temperature is rather uniform near the center of the TC, decreasing from 350°K near the surface. Dry stable air is present in the 600hPa layer around the perimeter. TC Hyacinthe was quasistationary to the east of Madagascar causing rainfall in excess of 500 cm on Reunion Island from 15–27 January 1980. OLR anomaly plots and satellite imagery indicate that Hyacinthe was spawned in association with an eastward moving convective wave and reached maximum intensity (−92 Wm−2) and radius (〉1000 km) from 21 to 26 January 1980.
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  • 65
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 73-99 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary We examine a family of tall (up to 20 km) cumulonimbus complexes that develop almost daily over an adjacent pair of flat islands in the Maritime Continent region north of Darwin, Australia, and that are known locally as “Hectors”. Nine cases observed by a rawinsonde network, surface observations (including radiation and soil measurements), the TRMM/TOGA radar, and one day of aircraft photography are used to analyse the development, rainfall, surface energy budgets, and vertical structure of these convective systems. The systems undergo convective merging which is similar to that observed in previous Florida studies and is multiplicative in terms of rainfall. About 90% of the total rainfall comes from the merged systems, which comprise less than 10% of convective systems, and this has implications for the manner in which tropical rainfall is parameterised in largerscale numerical models. By comparison to the West Indies, GATE, and Florida, the Hector environment contains a weaker basic flow, with less vertical shear. The main thermodynamic difference is that the Darwin area has an unstable upper troposphere and very high tropopause. Numerical modelling results support earlier observations of updraughts in excess of 30 ms−1 in this region, but show that only modest convective drafts are experienced below the freezing level (5 km). The surface fluxes over the islands are estimated from a Monash University study to be mainly in latent form from evapotranspiration, with a Bowen ratio only slightly larger than that commonly observed over oceans. These surface fluxes are crucial to the development of a suitable mixed layer to support deep convection. The flux estimates agree with the observed changes below the cloud base and provide sufficient information for calculations of the bounds on precipitation efficiency. Of particular interest are the observations of Hector development on a day when the islands were under a dense cirrus overcast. We find that the islands still provide sufficient net sensible and latent heat fluxes to initiate convection.
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  • 66
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 179-194 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Asa step in the development of a fully coupled regional model of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, atmospheric and sea ice models have been adapted to a western Arctic domain centered on the Bering Strait. Lateral boundary conditions derived from operational analyses drive the models through simulations on grids having horizontal resolutions of 21 km and 7 km. Sensitivities to the presence of sea ice are large after only 48 hours, by which time the surface temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are 10–15°C higher without sea ice than with sea ice. The temperatures, in turn, modify the fields of sea level pressure, surface wind and precipitation. By influencing the surface wind stress through the static static stability, the surface state feeds back to the surface momentum exchange, ice/ocean transport, and the rate of formation of new ice. The results also show a resolution-dependence of the surface winds, precipitation rates and new ice formation rates, particularly in areas in which the coastal configuration and topography are spatially complex. The experiments will be augmented by the implementation of an ocean model on the same grids.
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  • 67
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 147-164 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Synoptic activity for the Arctic is examined for the period 1952–1989 using the National Meteorological Center sea level pressure data set. Winter cyclone activity is most common near Iceland, between Svalbard and Scandinavia, the Norwegian and Kara seas, Baffin Bay and the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago; the strongest systems are found in the Iceland and Norwegian seas. Mean cyclone tracks, prepared for 1975–1989, confirm that winter cyclones most frequently enter the Arctic from the Norwegian and Barents seas. Winter anticyclones are most frequent and strongest over Siberia and Alaska/Yukon, with additional frequency maxima of weaker systems found over the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland. During summer, cyclonic activity remains common in the same regions as observed for winter, but increases over Siberia, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Central Aretic, related to cyclogenesis over northern parts of Eurasia and North America. Eurasian cyclones tend to enter the Aretic Ocean from the Laptev Sea eastward to the Chukchi Sea, augmenting the influx of systems from the Norwegian and Barents seas. The Siberian and Alaska/Yukon anticyclone centers disappear, with anticyclone maxima forming over the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Beaufort seas, and southeastward across Canada. Summer cyclones and anticyclones exhibit little regional variability in mean central pressure, and are typically 5–10 mb weaker than their winter counterparts. North of 65°N, cyclone and anticyclone activity peaks curing summer, and is at a minimum during winter. Trends in cyclone and anticyclone activity north of 65°N are examined through least squares regression. Since 1952, significant positive trends are found for cyclone numbers during winter, spring and summer, and for anticyclone numbers during spring, summer and autumn.
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  • 68
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 219-226 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) as seen from satellite (NOAA-series), and sea ice concentration in Mer Dumont d'Urville, Eastern Antarctica were analyzed. For the time period 1974–1990 available radiative flux data showed a slight increase of 1.8 W/m2 or 1% for the period. If thistrend should continue — trends over a 16-year period in any geophysical data is a rather questionable concept in isolation — a 4°C warming would be observed from space for this polar region over a century. The observed increase is, however, in agreement with Dumont d'Urville, the only ground station within the study area, which displayed a similar temperature increase (Periard and Pettré, 1991). Further it is in agreement with the general temperature increase which has been observed for the high southern latitudes (Boden et al., 1990). In addition, models of climatic change due to increased CO2 and other trace gases predict for polar regions values of similar size. Sea ice concentration showed a slight decrease for the time period 1974–1989, for which data were available. However, a relationship existed between the radiative flux and the ice concentration, not only for the actual data, but also for the deviation series with the annual cycles removed. A correlation factor of −0.74 was found; the sensitivity for an increase of 10% in ice concentration was −2.9 W/m2. This represents a temperature change as seen from space of about 1°C for a 10% change in sea ice concentration.
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  • 69
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 239-258 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The feasibility of using satellite data for climate research over the Greenland ice sheet is discussed. In particular, we demonstrate the usefulness of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area Coverage (LAC) and Global Area Coverage (GAC) data for narrow-band albedo retrieval. Our study supports the use of lower resolution AVHRR (GAC) data for process studies over most of the Greenland ice sheet. Based on LAC data time series analysis, we can resolve relative albedo changes on the order of 2–5%. In addition, we examine Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) passive microwave data for snow typing and other signals of climatological significance. Based on relationships between in situ measurements and horizontally polarized 19 and 37 GHz observations, wet snow regions are identified. The wet snow regions increase in aerial percentage from 9% of the total ice surface in June to a maximum of 26% in August 1990. Furthermore, the relationship between brightness temperatures and accumulation rates in the northeastern part of Greenland is described. We found a consistent increase in accumulation rate for the northeastern part of the ice sheet from 1981 to 1986.
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  • 70
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Relaxation coefficients for Davies' lateral boundary scheme for limited-area numerical weather prediction models are constructed in such a way that, under idealized conditions, the unwanted partial reflection of outgoing waves (leaving the limited area) at the boundary is minimized.
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  • 71
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 51 (1993), S. 259-274 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Meteorological and glaciological analyses are integrated to examine the precipitation trends during the last three decades over the ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland. For Antarctica, the best data source is provided by glaciologically-measured trends of snow accumulation, and for limited sectors of East Antarctica consistency with precipitation amounts calculated from the atmospheric water balance equation is obtained. For Greenland, precipitation rates parameterized from atmospheric analyses yield the only comprehensive depiction. The precipitation rate over Antarctica appears to have increased by about 5% over a time period spanning the accumulation means for the 1955–65 to 1965–75 periods, while over Greenland it has decreased by about 15% since 1983 with a secondary increase over the southern part of the ice sheet starting in 1977. At the end of the 10-year overlapping period, the global sea-level impact of the precipitation changes over Antarctica dominates that for Greenland and yields a net ice-sheet precipitation contribution of roughly 0.02 mm yr−1. These changes are likely due to marked variations in the cyclonic forcing affecting the ice sheets, but are only weakly reflected in the temperature regime, consistent with the episodic nature of cyclonic precipitation. These conclusions are not founded on high quality data bases. The importance of such changes for understanding global sea-level variations argues for a modest research effort to collect simultaneous meteorological and glaciological observations in order to describe and understand the current precipitation variations over both ice sheets. Some suggestions are offered for steps that could be taken.
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  • 72
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 49-57 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A simple systematic method has been developed to investigate the laws of conservation for approximating model equations. The main purpose of this paper is to identify these model equations as approximations of continuous Hamiltonian systems. If this identification is possible, the laws of conservation of the model system can be investigated as for a finite dimensional Hamiltonian system. Obviously, this method can be applied only in the case where the original continuous equations are Hamiltonian. The applicability of the general method has been verified by using three well-known finite-difference schemes as examples. These examples show that this technique is a possible systematic way to construct new conservative finite-difference approximations, as well as to identify the conserved quantities of well-known schemes.
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  • 73
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The global nature of the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) have been investigated by applying a frequency filter to daily data for the summer monsoon months (June to September) during two contrasting years—1987, a deficient monsoon year and 1988, an excess monsoon year. Several meteorological parameters at five levels in the troposphere have been examined. Regions with large amplitude of these oscillations are isolated for each year. The results indicate that the global spatial distribution of these oscillations is more in a deficient year than in an excess year, in particular over the Indian subcontinent and the EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions. The principal modes of variability during these two years have been investigated through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The first two eigenmodes of 850 hPa zonal wind explain nearly 50% of the variance. The dipole type of structure between the Indian and the Pacific region is more apparent in 1987 than in 1988. Time-longitude cross sections of the filtered zonal wind over the equatorial regions clearly show that eastward propagation is detected in 1987, but is virtually absent in 1988. It is also seen that the 30–60 day filtered winds are stronger during the monsoon of 1987 than in 1988.
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  • 74
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 15-35 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2–3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of aconvective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.
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  • 75
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 52 (1993), S. 59-68 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary In this study, the response of a dynamically unstable shear flow with a critical level to periodic forcing is presented. An energy argument is proposed to explain the upshear tilt of updrafts associated with disturbances in two-dimensional stably stratified flows. In a dynamically unstable flow, the energy equation requires an upshear tilt of the perturbation streamfunction and vertical velocity whereU z is positive. A stability model is constructed using an iteration method. An upshear tilt of the vertical velocity and the streamfunction fields is evident in a dynamically unstable flow, which is required by energy conversion from the basic shear to the growing perturbation wave energy according to the energy argument. The momentum flux profile indicates that the basic flow is decreased (increased) above (below) the critical level. Thus, the shear instability tends to smooth the shear layer. Following the energy argument, a downshear tilt of the updraft is produced in an unstably stratified flow since the perturbation wave energy is negative. The wave energy budget indicates that the disturbance is caused by a thermal instability modified by a shear flow since the potential energy grows faster than the kinetic energy.
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  • 76
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 109-119 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Expansive soils ; Bauchi ; Nigeria
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Field and chemical data show that soils in some parts of Bauchi State, Nigeria, are rich in illite (20–35%), montmorillonite (60–75%), and kaolinite (45–73%). These expansive clays cause the soils to shrink and swell alternatively in response to the seasonal supply of moisture; resulting in observed damaging cracks. Plasticity index (PI) determinations on these soils are high (7–13.4%) suggesting that they are potentially hazardous. The attendant hazards and huge losses to the State are blamed on the expansive nature of these soils. The hazardous conditions can be mitigated by adopting proper construction precautions as well as by using chemical additives such as lime and phosphates, to lower the PI and help to increase the strength of the soils.
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  • 77
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 133-153 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; northeastern Italy ; attenuation relations ; source geometry
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The Cornell and Gumbel approaches to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment have been applied in northeastern Italy to test the influence of various input parameters. Problems related to earthquake source geometry, seismicity descriptors, and attenuation of two ground-motion parameters of engineering interest (peak ground acceleration and macroseismic intensity) have been analyzed. The results seem to be very sensitive to this last variable (attenuation), while different methodologies can lead to very similar evaluations, if properly applied. Properly applied means that all the input parameters are prepared to satisfy the conditions of the chosen approach. In addition, the seismotectonic knowledge of the study region conditions the choice of approach to be applied.
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  • 78
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 191-193 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 79
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 173-185 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Mediterranean ; epicenter ; seismicity
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The earthquake catalogue of the European area, 1901–1985, with unified magnitudes, has been used for the preparation of epicentre maps of the Mediterranean area. Epicentres have been plotted on three sheets for different magnitude ranges,M B (orm B ) ≥ 5, 0,M S (orm B ) = 4.4–4.9,M S (orm B ) ≤ 4.3, according to the estimated levels of homogeneity. The first map (M ≥ 5) enables an objective comparison of seismicity over the whole Mediterranean area. The other two maps are complementary without the guarantee of completeness. Epicentres define the position of principal earthquake zones and levels of earthquake activity. The maps also serve as the starting point for further data processing. Graphs illustrating the time variation of earthquake activity in the whole area and the mean magnitude-frequency relationships are included.
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  • 80
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 195-195 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 81
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 199-199 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 82
    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 200-200 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 83
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 219-235 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Rome ; local earthquakes ; vulnerability ; intensity estimation ; historical earthquakes
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The city of Rome is subjected to moderate seismic risk due to both local and external seismicity. Up to now, the maximum intensity felt has never exceeded VIII MCS. The 1 November 1895 (I o = VII) and 31 August 1909 (I o = VI) earthquakes demonstrate that small local events can also cause damage in a large old city. In the present work, we have re-evaluated the intensity values of those two events by means of automatic processing. A comparison between the present results with geological evidence and previous studies is shown, especially for the historical centre of Rome. For the first time, the 1909 earthquake instrumental magnitudeM L = 3.6 has been calculated from original recordings.
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  • 84
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 211-218 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Time predictable model ; Benioff zone ; Aegean Sea
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km ≤h ≤ 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT t = 0.20M min + 0.19M p +a, whereT t is the repeat time (in years),M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and ‘a’ parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean. By assuming that the ratioT/T t, whereT is the observed andT t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M s ≥ 6.5) and very strong (M s ≥ 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P 〉 0.9) for the strong and high (P 〉 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h 〈 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.
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  • 85
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 201-210 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Indian subcontinent ; geodynamic unit ; seismotectonics ; earthquake
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Major geotectonic elements that are seismically active in the near-shore areas of the Indian subcontinent are the Mekran fault off the coast of Pakistan, the western part of the Narmada-Son lineament, the West Coast Fault off the west coast of India - a southward extension of the Cambay Rift, the Palghat Gap, the Godavari and Mahanadi grabens, transecting rather at an angle to the eastern coast of India and the Arakan-Yoma arcuate belt of Burma, which is a part of the global Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, continuing southwards into the Andaman-Nicobar island complex and the Java-Sumatra trench on the ocean floor of the advancing Indo-Australian Plate. The coastal belt exhibits varied degrees of seismicity from intensely seismic areas, like the Mekran coast off Pakistan, Kutch (India) and the Arakan-Yoma belt of Burma, with earthquake magnitudes of more than 8.0, while the intervening coastal areas of the Peninsular India are moderately seismic to aseismic. The remaining areas, namely, the major part of the coastal belt of Bay of Bengal in India and Bangladesh are broadly aseismic. However, the active Godavari graben and the eastern part of the coast of Bangladesh are frequented by low to moderate magnitude earthquakes. An extension of the active Arakan-Yoma belt in the Bay of Bengal in the form of the Andaman-Nicobar Island complex is highly seismic with a maximum earthquake magnitude of more than 8.0, while the Lakshadweep-Minicoy island complex, situated on the Chagos-Laccadive ridge is moderately seismic. This broad picture of coastal and marginal seismicity is corroborated by the geodynamics of the northern part of the Indo-Australian Plate. Observations along the coastal areas during historic and recent times, however, confirm the absence of significant ‘tsunamis’, though very mild tsunami surges have occasionally been observed along the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. No active volcanoes are known to exist in the coastal areas. Water reservoirs situated near the marginal areas of the Peninsular Shield exhibit moderate to intense seismic activities, viz. Ukai, Bhatsa, Koyna, Parambikulam, Sholayar, Idduki, and Kinnersani.
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  • 86
    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 93-95 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 87
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    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 39-57 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Normal and abnormal floods ; indigenous adjustments ; structural measures ; regulated flood levels ; embankment compartmentalization
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Based on a systematic sample survey among the residents of two contrasting floodplain environments - the Tista floodplain (a shallow flood area) and the Ganges-Brahmaputra floodplain (a deep flood area) - this study tests a central hypothesis that the floodplain residents of Bangladesh preferred regulation of flood levels as the main flood alleviation measure. The study found that, despite significant differences in property setting, flood hazard experience and the nature of indigenous adjustments to floods between the two sample areas, an overwhelming 95% of the respondents from each area preferred regulation of flood levels within a range of 0.3 to 2.0 m. The study attempts to provide an explanation for the popularity of regulated flood levels in the context of indigenous adjustments of floodplain crops and infrastructures tonormal flood levels in Bangladesh, which coincided with the respondents' preferred range of flood levels. The study points out that the objective of the UNDP/World Bank-sponsored embankment compartmentalization projects also coincides with this goal of regulating flood levels. However, to test the physical limitations of regulating water levels between neighbouring compartments and to assess the environmental impacts of the proposed projects, the study stresses the need for initiating environmental baseline surveys on the pilot compartmentalization project, which is located on the left bank of the Brahmaputra.
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  • 88
    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 59-73 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Cascadia tsunami danger ; shallow water equations ; Puget Sound ; Cascadia subduction zone ; numerical modeling ; tsunami source ; tsunami models
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Tsunamis are numerically modeled using the nonlinear shallow-water equations for three hypothetical Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitudes and currents are tabulated for 131 sites along the North American coast. Earthquake source parameters are chosen to satisfy known subduction zone configuration and thermal constraints. These source parameters are used as input to compute vertical sea-floor displacement. The three earthquakes modeled are moment magnitude 8.8, 8.5, and 7.8. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitude for theMw = 8.8 earthquake is near 6 m normal to the fault break and maximum current is near 3.5 m/s. Maximum amplitudes decrease by about one-half north and south of the fault break in the source region. Tsunami amplitudes vary along the Alaskan coast from less than 0.5 to 1.6 m. The modeled amplitudes for theMw = 8.8 quake decrease to less than 0.4 m south of Point Conception, CA. TheMw = 7.8 earthquake generates a tsunami with a maximum amplitude of less than 1 m normal to the source. North and south of the fault break the maximum amplitude again decreases by about one-half. In all the models, amplitudes and currents arc less than one-sixth of the outer coast value within Puget Sound.
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  • 89
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    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 75-91 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Oil spill ; oil drift ; Tenyo Maru ; Tully Eddy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We provide background oceanography and observations and hindcast simulations of spreading oil leaked from the wreck of theTenyo Maru, a fishing vessel that sank off the western entrance to Juan de Fuca Strait in July 1991. The vessel sank in the region of the Tully Eddy on the continental shelf. Although this eddy is normally present in summer, its location shifts and its ‘trapping time’ varies considerably. The spread of theTenyo Maru oil is represented reasonably well by assuming the eddy to be a littler further to the east and north of its position as observed during drifter studies in 1986. Observations in 1985 showed that the preferred exit route of surface water from the eddy was toward the southeast, the direction followed by theTenyo Maru oil in 1991; however, other drift paths are possible, and under different weather conditions the oil could have drifted toward the Vancouver Island coast.
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  • 90
    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. v 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 91
    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 1-23 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Debris flow ; viscous and low-viscous debris flow ; intermittent and continuous debris flow ; rheological behavior ; geosound ; prediction and warning
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents a classification of debris flows in China. These are classified into four related types according to their formation factors, material components, fluid properties, and movement patterns. Details of field observations of debris flow in China are also given. Several ways of using the parameters of debris flow are listed as well as their applied results. Some equations are formulated using velocity, discharge, and impact force. In addition, the paper presents a comprehensive approach to the prevention of debris flows.
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  • 92
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 25-39 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Seismic deformation ; factor analysis ; semivariogram ; underground temperature ; Bouguer ; anomaly ; fault length ; topography ; central Italy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Geological and geophysical data of an area of central Italy have been used for statistically comparing with the distribution of the mean seismic deformation. This parameter has been calculated by adding the square root of the energy released by earthquakes inside a cell, the dimensions of which have been fixed after performing an analysis of spatial autocorrelation. Underground temperatures, fault length, and topographic altitude showed a good single linear correlation with seismicity. Factor analysis has been employed to reduce the number of original variables, taking into account their mutual correlation; then, with the new uncorrelated variables, a good multiple linear correlation has been found, considering seismic deformation as a dependent variable. The analysis of residuals for the multiple regression shows the existence of areas with different seismic activity than predicted by the model: a discussion of the residuals pattern follows, considering the geological setting of the area.
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  • 93
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 59-82 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Earthquake hazards ; building contents ; occupant behavior ; occupant risk analysis ; physically disabled people ; self-protective actions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract There is a need to study hazards faced by physically disabled people during earthquakes. A literature review showed the importance of occupant behavior as a factor that contributes to casualty during earthquakes. A survey questionnaire was used to study the behavioral responses of 33 disabled residents, none of whom sustained injury, during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. An occupant risk analysis methodology was developed to study the sequence of activities of the disabled people. Severe restrictions in the physical capabilities of the respondents did not appear to increase their exposure to hazards. Overall, the physically disabled occupants did not think of themselves as vulnerable, and those who felt vulnerable initiated self-protective action in response to the hazards present in their immediate surroundings.
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  • 94
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 187-189 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 95
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 155-171 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Residential buildings ; vulnerability function ; loss function ; seismic hazard ; specific risk
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper is concerned with an investigation of the damage to residential buildings in two areas within Gilan and Zanjan provinces, Iran, caused by the Manjil-Rudbar earthquake of 20 June 1990. A statistical correlation between the observed ground motion and the damage to the residential buildings is derived for overall damaged buildings and expressed as the vulnerability function. The loss function is calculated by combining the seismic hazard with the vulnerability function. The study of vulnerability and annual seismic hazard shows that the specific annual risk for the range of motion of 0.18 to 0.5 g is equal to 0.02. This indicates that the specific risk for semi-engineered residential buildings with a lifetime of 20 years is about 33%. This study also shows that in large cities, such as Tehran, located in seismic areas, the extent of damage according to the vulnerability function will be 45 and 70% for expected maximum accelerations of 0.3 and 0.4 g, respectively.
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  • 96
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 41-57 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Earthquake hazard (maximum magnitude, activity rate,b-value) ; Sweden ; extreme and complete catalog parts ; threshold magnitude ; magnitude uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The maximum magnitude, the activity rate, and the Gutenberg-Richterb parameter as earthquake hazard parameters, have been evaluated for Sweden. The maximum likelihood method permits the combination of historical and instrumental data. The catalog used consists of 1100 earthquakes in the time interval 1375–1989. The extreme part of the catalog contains only the strongest historical earthquakes, whereas the complete part is divided into several subcatalogs, each assumed complete above a specified threshold magnitude. The uncertainty in magnitude determination was taken into account. For southern Sweden, the calculations giveb-values of 1.04 (0.05) for the whole area south of 60° N and 0.98 (0.06) for a subregion of enhanced seismicity in the Lake Vänern area. For the whole area north of 60° N, theb-value is 1.35 (0.06) and for the seismicity zone along the Gulf of Bothnia 1.26 (0.06). The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.4 [ML(UPP) or MM(UPP)] is 1.8 for the whole southern Sweden, 1.3 for the Lake Vänern region, 3.7 for northern Sweden, and 2.4 for the region along the Gulf of Bothnia. The maximum expected regional magnitude is calculated to 4.9 (0.5) for a time span of 615 years for southern Sweden and the Lake Vänern subregion, and 4.3 (0.5) for a time span of 331 years for northern Sweden and the Gulf of Bothnia subregion. However, several historical earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in nearby areas of Norway indicate that the seismic potential may be higher.
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  • 97
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 98
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 121-132 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Induced seismicity ; time-dependent seismic hazard ; rockburst ; coal mines ; Poland ; Czechoslovakia
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts. The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics. The method proposed in this study is an example of ‘time-dependent’ on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.
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  • 99
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    Natural hazards 7 (1993), S. 99-108 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Counting interval ; Poisson model ; point processes ; earthquake statistics ; South Aegean ; intermediate depth earthquakes
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Decision on whether or not a specific stochastic model is an adequate description of the earthquake time series depends on (a) the characteristics of the earthquake sample (total time interval, magnitude range, inclusion or not of dependent events) and (b) the selection of counting interval,τ, which seems to be of crucial importance. Certain improvements are proposed for handling earthquake samples when tested against stochastic models. Particularly, it is proposed thatτ should be nonarbitrarily selected as equal to the mean return period of events of magnitude equal to or larger than the lower magnitude,M min, for which the data are complete. A methodological experiment has been performed using three data sets of South Aegean intermediate depth main shocks of variableM min. It is clear that the distribution gradually approaches the simple Poisson model as the counting interval decreasingly approaches a nonarbitrarily selected value, which indicates the important misleading effect of using arbitrarily selected counting intervals. The efficiency of the proposed improvements in stochastic modelling of volcanic eruption and tsunami time series is discussed.
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  • 100
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    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. iv 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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