ALBERT

Anmerkung: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2019 , Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung Abbreviations 1 Introduction 1.1 Scientific background 1.1.1 Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere 1.1.2 The permafrost carbon climate feedback 1.1.3 Rapidly changing, deep permafrost environments 1.2 Aims of this dissertation 1.3 Investigated study areas 1.4 Basic method overview 1.4.1 Field work in the Arctic 1.4.2 Laboratory procedure 1.4.3 Analysis ofl andscape-scale carbon and nitrogen stocks 1.5 Thesis organization 1.6 Overview of publications 1.6.1 Publication#1 - Yedoma landscape publication 1.6.2 Publication#2 - Thermokarst lake sequence publication 1.6.3 Publication#3 - North Alaska Arctic river delta publication 1.6.4 Extended Abstract - Western Alaska river delta study 1.6.5 Appendices - Supplementary material and paper in preparation II Carbon and nitrogen pools in thermokarst-affected permafrost landscapes in Arctic Siberia 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Material and methods 2.3.1 Study area 2.3.2 Field Work 2.3.3 Laboratory analysis 2.3.4 Landform classification and upscaling C and N pools 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Sedimentological results 2.4.2 Sampling site SOC and N stocks 2.4.3 Upscaling: Landscape SOC and N stocks 2.4.4 Radiocarbon dates 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 Site specific soil organic C and N stock characteristics 2.5.2 Upscaling of C and N pools 2.5.3 Sediment and organic C accumulation rates 2.5.4 Characterizing soil organic carbon 2.5.5 The fate of organic carbon in thermokarst-affected yedoma in Siberia 2.6 Conclusions III Impacts of successive thermokarst lake stages on soil organic matter, Arctic Alaska 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Plain language summary 3.3 Introduction 3.4 Study site 3.5 Methods 3.5.1 Core collection 3.5.2 Biogeochemical analyses 3.5.3 Study area OC and N calculation 3.6 Results 3.6.1 Biogeochemistry 3.6.2 Sediment organic carbon and nitrogen stocks 3.6.3 Radiocarbon dates and carbon accumulation rates 3.6.4 Landscape C and N budget 3.7 Discussion 3.7.1 Impact of thermokarst lake dynamics on organic matter storage 3.7.2 High organic C and N stocks on the ACP 3.7.3 Landscape chronology 3.7.4 Organic matter accumulation 3.7.5 Future development 3.8 Conclusions IV Sedimentary and geochemical characteristics of two small permafrost-dominated Arctic river deltas in northern Alaska 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Study area 4.4 Material and Methods 4.4.1 Soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen storage 4.4.2 Radiocarbon dating and organic carbon accumulation rates 4.4.3 Grain size distribution 4.4.4 Scaling carbon and nitrogen contents to landscape level 4.5 Results 4.5.1 Carbon and nitrogen contents 4.5.2 Radiocarbon dates and accumulation rates 4.5.3 Grain size distribution 4.5.4 Arctic river delta carbon and nitrogen storage 4.6. Discussion 4.6.1 Significance of carbon and nitrogen stocks in Arctic river deltas 4.6.2 SOC and SN distribution with depth 4.6.3 Sedimentary characteristics 4.6.3.1 Accumulation rates 4.6.3.2 Sediment distribution 4.6.4 Impacts of future changes 4.6.5 Significance of remotely sensed upscaling results 4.7 Conclusions V Soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in Arctic river deltas - New data for three Western Alaskan deltas 5.1 Abstract 5.2 Introduction 5.3 Study sites 5.4 Methods 5.5 Results and discussion 5.5 Conclusions VI Discussion 6.1 Interregional comparison 6.2 Changing thermokarst landscapes and their global impact 6.3 A growing C and N data base 6.4 Outlook - potential follow-up projects VII Synthesis VIII References Appendix A Synthesis of SOC and N inventories Appendix B Supplementary material to Chapter II Appendix C Supplementary material to Chapter III Appendix D Supplementary material to Chapter IV Appendix E Supplementary material to Chapter V Appendix F Arctic river delta data set - Version 1.0 Acknowledgements - Danksagung

Anmerkung: Table of Contents Abstract Zusammenfassung List of Figures List of Tables 1. Introduction 1.1 Scientific Background 1.1.1 Arctic Climate Change 1.1.2 Permafrost Degradation 1.1.3 The Arctic Freshwater System and its Biogeochemistry 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Study Region and Methods 1.3.1 Study Area 1.3.2 Field Sampling and Measurements 1.3.3 Geochemical Analyses 1.3.4 Data Processing 1.4 Thesis Structure 1.5 Author Contributions 2. Spatial Variability of Dissolved Organic Carbon, Solutes and Suspended Sediment in Disturbed Low Arctic Coastal Watersheds 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Study Site 2.4 Methods 2.4.1 Stream Monitoring 2.4.2 Mapping of Disturbances 2.4.3 Flux Estimates and Statistics 2.5 Results 2.5.1 Catchment Disturbance 2.5.2 Runoff and Hydrochemistry 2.5.3 Lateral Transport of Stream Water 2.5.4 Hydrochemical Composition and Fluxes in Nearby Streams 2.6 Discussion 2.6.1 Total Runoff and Water Quality 2.6.2 Water Quality Changes from Headwaters to Downstream 2.6.3 Changes in Hydrochemistry and Isotopic Composition over Time 2.6.4 Importance of Disturbances for Hydrochemistry 2.7 Conclusions 2.8 Supplementary Material 3. Terrestrial Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (cDOM) in Arctic Catchments - Characterizing Organic Matter Composition Across the Arctic 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Study Area 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Field Methods and Hydrochemistry 3.3.2 Statistical Analyses 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Meteorological Conditions and General Hydrochemistry 3.4.2 DOC and cDOM Absorption Characteristics 3.4.3 Downstream Patterns of DOC and cDOM Along Longitudinal Transects 3.4.4 Temporal Trends ofDOC and cDOM with Changing Meteorological Conditions 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Limitations of cDOM Measurements from Terrestrial Sources 3.5.2 Catchment Processes and Biogeochemical Cycling 3.5.2.1 Regional Catchment Properties 3.5.2.2 Rainfall Events 3.5.2.3 Downstream Patterns and Impact of Permafrost Disturbance 3.5.3 Nature of cDOM-DOC Across the Terrestrial Arctic 3.6 Conclusion 3.7 Supplementary Material 4. Summer Rainfall DOC, Solute and Sediment Fluxes in a Small Arctic Coastal Catchment on Herschel Island (Yukon Territory, Canada) 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Study Site 4.4 Methodology 4.4.1 Weather data 4.4.2 Hydrology 4.4.3 Suspended Sediment and Hydrochemistry 4.4.4 Flux Estimates and Statistics 4.5 Results 4.5.1 Meteorological Conditions 4.5.2 Streamflow and Electrical Conductivity 4.5.3 Transport of Suspended Sediment and Organic Matter 4.5.4 Solute Transport 4.5.5 Alluvial Fan Sampling 4.6 Discussion 4.6.1 Hydrological Response 4.6.2 Water Quality and Fluxes 4.6.3 Rainfall Response and Flow Pathways 4.7 Conclusions 4.8 Supplementary Material 5. Synthesis 5.1 Impacts of Permafrost Degradation on Stream Biogeochemistry 5.2 Controls on DOM Quality across the Arctic 5.3 Biogeochemical Fluxes from Small Coastal Catchments to the Arctic Ocean 5.4 Challenges 5.5 Outlook Acronyms Bibliography Acknowledgements Eidesstattliche Erklärung

Anmerkung: Contents: 1 General introduction. - 1.1 Challenges of isotope-based temperature reconstructions. - 1.2 Thesis overview. - 1.3 Author contributions. - 2 Theoretical background. - 2.1 The isotopic composition of firn and ice. - 2.1.1 Fractionation of water isotopologues. - 2.1.2 Relationship with temperature. - 2.1.3 Measuring of the isotopic composition. - 2.2 Processes within the firn column. - 2.2.1 The firn column of polar ice sheets. - 2.2.2 The density of firn. - 2.2.3 The temperature profile of firn. - 2.2.4 Vapour diffusion in firn. - 2.3 Internal climate variability. - 3 Regional climate signal vs.local noise: a two-dimensional view of water isotopes. - 3.1 Introduction. - 3.2 Data and methods. - 3.3 Results. - 3.3.1 Trench isotope records. - 3.3.2 Single-profile representativity. - 3.3.3 Mean trench profiles. - 3.3.4 Spatial correlation structure. - 3.3.5 Statistical noise model. - 3.4 Discussion. - 3.4.1 Local noise vs. regional climate signal. - 3.4.2 Representativity of isotope signals. - 3.4.3 Implications. - 3.5 Conclusions. - 3.6 Appendix A: Derivation of noise model. - 3.6.1 Definitions. - 3.6.2 Derivation of model correlations. - 3.6.3 Estimation of parameters. - 3.7 Appendix B: Noise level after diffusion. - 4 Constraints on post-depositional isotope modifications in east antarctic firn. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 Data and methods. - 4.2.1 Sampling and measurements. - 4.2.2 Trench depth scale. - 4.2.3 Spatial variability of trench profiles. - 4.2.4 Quantification of downward advection, densification and diffusion. - 4.2.5 Statistical tests. - 4.3 Results. - 4.3.1 Comparison of T15 and T13 isotope data. - 4.3.2 Expected isotope profile changes. - 4.3.3 Temporal vs. spatial variability. - 4.4 Discussion. - 4.4.1 Densification, diffusion and stratigraphic noise. - 4.4.2 Additional post-depositional modifications. - 4.5 Conclusions. - 5 On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotope variations. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.2 Data and Methods. - 5.2.1 Data. - 5.2.2 Spectral analysis. - 5.2.3 Rice’s formula. - 5.2.4 Cycle length and amplitude estimation. - 5.2.5 Model for vertical isotope profiles. - 5.3 Results. - 5.3.1 Spectral analysis of isotope profiles. - 5.3.2 Theoretical and observed cycle length. - 5.3.3 Illustrative examples. - 5.3.4 Depth dependency of cycle length. - 5.3.5 Simulated vs. observed isotope variations. - 5.4 Discussion and summary. - 5.5 Conclusions. - 5.6 Appendix A: Input sensitivity. - 5.7 Appendix B: Additional results. - 5.8 Appendix C: Spectral significance testing. - 6 Timescale-dependency of antarctic isotope variations. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 Data and methods. - 6.2.1 DML and WAIS isotope records. - 6.2.2 Spectral model. - 6.2.3 Timescale-dependent signal-to-noise ratio. - 6.2.4 Effects of diffusion and time uncertainty. - 6.2.5 Present-day temperature decorrelation. - 6.3 Results. - 6.3.1 Illustration of model approach. - 6.3.2 DML and WAIS isotope variability. - 6.4 Discussion. - 6.4.1 Interpretation of noise spectra. - 6.4.2 Interpretation of signal spectra. - 6.4.3 Signal-to-noise ratios. - 6.4.4 Differences between DML and WAIS. - 6.5 Conclusions. - 7 Declining temperature variability from LGM to holocene. - 8 General discussion and conclusions. - 8.1 Short-scale spatial and temporal isotope variability. - 8.1.1 Local spatial variability. - 8.1.2 Seasonal to interannual variability. - 8.1.3 Spatial vs. temporal variability. - 8.2 Extension to longer scales. - 8.2.1 Spatial vs. temporal variability on interannual timescales. - 8.2.2 Holocene and longer timescales. - 8.3 Concluding remarks and outlook. - Bibliography. - A Methods to: declining temperature variability from lgm to holocene. - A.1 Temperature proxy data. - A.2 Model-based temperature and variability change. - A.3 Temperature recalibration of proxy records. - A.3.1 Recalibration of ice-core records. - A.3.2 Recalibration of marine records. - A.4 Variance and variance ratio estimation. - A.5 Noise correction. - A.5.1 Testing effect of noise correction. - A.6 Effect of ecological adaption and bioturbation. - A.7 Effect of proxy sampling locations. - B Layering of surface snow and firn: noise or seasonal signal?. - B.1 Introduction. - B.2 Materials and methods. - B.2.1 Firn-core density profiles. - B.2.2 Trench density profiles. - B.2.3 Dielectric profiling and density estimates. - B.2.4 Comparison of DEP and CT density. - B.2.5 Ion measurements. - B.3 Results. - B.3.1 2-D trench density data. - B.3.2 Spatial correlation structure. - B.3.3 Comparison of mean density, isotope and impurity profiles. - B.3.4 Spectral analysis of vertical density data. - B.4 Discussion. - B.4.1 Spatial variability. - B.4.2 Representativeness of single profiles. - B.4.3 Seasonal cycle in snow density. - B.4.4 Density layering in firn and impurities. - B.5 Conclusions. - Acknowledgements - Danksagung.

Anmerkung: Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 1.1Wissenschaftliche Zielsetzung 2 Grundlagen 2.1 Grundgleichungen 2.2 Potentielle Vorticity 2.3 Planetare Wellen 2.4 Atmosphärische Instabilität 2.5 Grenzschicht 2.6 Kopplung von Tropo- und Stratosphäre 3 Daten und Methoden 3.1 N-ICE2015 3.1.1 Expeditionsbeschreibung 3.1.2 Ziele der Expedition 3.2 Daten 3.2.1 Beobachtungsdaten 3.2.2 ERA-Interim Reanalyse 3.2.3 Das HIRHAM5 Modell 3.3 Analysemethoden 3.3.1 Temperaturinversionen 3.3.2 Vertikale Stabilität 3.3.3 Grenzschichthöhe 3.3.4 Eady Growth Rate 3.3.5 2d-Skalenfilterung und -Pattern-Korrelation 3.3.6 Nudging Experiment 4 Analyse der N-ICE2015 Radiosonden 4.1 Blick auf die Troposphäre 4.2 Fallstudie zum M2-Sturm: A 4.3 Zyklonencharakteristika 4.4 Temperaturinversionen und Stabilität 4.5 Vergleich mit ERA-Interim, SHEBA und Ny-Ålesund 4.6 Résumé der Expeditionsdaten 5 Nudging Studien mit HIRHAM5 5.1 Vergleich mit ERA-Interim 5.2 Vergleich der Simulationen 5.3 Fallstudie zum M2-Sturm: B 5.3.1 Synoptische Aktivität 5.4 Statistischer Vergleich 6 Einfluss der Stratosphäre 6.1 Stratosphäre im Winter 2014/2015 6.2 Fallstudie zum M2-Sturm: C 6.3 PV als Ladung 6.4 Résumé der Beobachtungen 7 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick A Zusätztliche Abbildungen B Literaturverzeichnis

Anmerkung: Contents: 1 Introduction to the Application of Paleoecological Techniques in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, Kaarina Weckström, Peter A. Gell, and C. Gregory Skilbeck. - PART I ESTARIES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT. - 2 Estuary Form and Function: Implications for Palaeoecological Studies / Peter Scanes, Angus Ferguson, and Jaimie Potts. - 3 Geology and Sedimentary History of Modern Estuaries / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Andrew D. Heap, and Colin D. Woodroffe. - 4 Paleoecological Evidence for Variability and Change in Estuaries: Insights for Management / Krystyna M. Saunders and Peter A. Gell. - PART II CORING AND DATING OF ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS. - 5 Sediment Sampling in Estuaries: Site Selection and Sampling Techniques / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Stacey Trevathan-Tackett, Pemika Apichanangkool, and Peter I. Macreadie. - 6 Some Practical Considerations Regarding the Application of 210Pb and 137Cs Dating to Estuarine Sediments / Thorbjoern Joest Andersen. - 7 Radiocarbon Dating in Estuarine Environments / Jesper Olsen, Philippa Ascough, Bryan C. Lougheed, and Peter Rasmussen. - PART III TECHNIQUES FOR PALAEOENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTIONS IN ESTUARINES. - 8 Lipid Biomarkers as Organic Geochemical Proxies for the Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of Estuarine Environments / John K. Volkman and Rienk H. Smittenberg. - 9 C/N ratios and Carbon Isotope Composition of Organic Matter in Estuarine Environments / Melanie J. Leng and Jonathan P. Lewis. - 10 Physical and Chemical Factors to Consider when Studying Historical Contamination and Pollution in Estuaries / Amanda Reichelt-Brushett, Malcolm Clark, and Gavin Birch. - 11 Diatoms as Indicators of Environmental Change in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, and Brendan Logan. - 12 Dinoflagellate Cysts as Proxies for Holocene Environmental Change in Estuaries: Diversity, Abundance and Morphology / Marianne Ellegaard, Barrie Dale, Kenneth N. Mertens, Vera Pospelova, and Sofia Ribeiro. - 13 Applications of Foraminifera, Testate Amoebae and Tintinnids in Estuarine Palaeoecology / Anupam Ghosh and Helena L. Filipsson. - 14 Ostracods as Recorders of Palaeoenvironmental Change in Estuaries / Jessica M. Reeves. - 15 Application of Molluscan Analyses to the Reconstruction of Past Environmental Conditions in Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard and Donna Surge. - 16 Corals in Estuarine Environments: Their Response to Environmental Changes and Application in Reconstructing Past Environmental Variability / Francisca Staines-Urías. - 17 Inferring Environmental Change in Estuaries from Plant Macrofossils / John Tibby and Carl D. Sayer. - 18 Applications of Pollen Analysis in Estuarine Systems / Joanna C. Ellison. - PART IV CASE STUDIES. - 19 Palaeo-Environmental Approaches to Reconstructing Sea Level Changes in Estuaries / Brigid V. Morrison and Joanna C. Ellison. - 20 Paleoecology Studies in Chesapeake Bay: A Model System for Understanding Interactions between Climate, Anthropogenic Activities and the Environment / Elizabeth A. Canuel, Grace S. Brush, Thomas M. Cronin, Rowan Lockwood, and Andrew R. Zimmerman. - 21 Paleosalinity Changes in the Río de la Plata Estuary and on the Adjacent Uruguayan Continental Shelf over the Past 1200 Years: An Approach Using Diatoms as a Proxy / Laura Perez, Felipe García-Rodríguez, and Till J.J. Hanebuth. - 22 Application of Paleoecology to Ecosystem Restoration: A Case Study from South Florida’s Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard. - 23 Paleolimnological History of the Coorong: Identifying the Natural Ecological Character of a Ramsar Wetland in Crisis / Peter A. Gell. - 24 Palaeoenvironmental History of the Baltic Sea: One of the Largest Brackish-water Ecosystems in the World / Kaarina Weckström, Jonathan P. Lewis, Elinor Andrén, Marianne Ellegaard, Peter Rasmussen, and Richard Telford. - Glossary. - Index

Anmerkung: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung Abbreviations and nomenclatureI 1. Introduction 1.1 Scientific background 1.1.1 Permafrost and ground ice 1.1.2 Organic carbon pools and fluxes into the Arctic Ocean 1.1.3 Climate warming and permafrost thaw 1.1.4 Permafrost degradation and coastal erosion 1.1.5 Study area Yukon coast and Qikiqtaruk 1.2 Knowledge gaps 1.3 Aims and objectives 1.4 Thesis structure and author's contribution 2. Eroding permafrost coasts release low amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from ground ice into the nearshore zone of the Arctic Ocean 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Study area 2.4 Methods 2.4.1 Field work 2.4.2 DOC concentration 2.4.3 DOC flux estimation 2.5 Results 2.5.1 Segmentation of the coast - literature synthesis 2.5.2 DOC concentration 2.5.3 DOC stocks and fluxes 2.6 Discussion 2.6.1 DOC concentrations in ground ice 2.6.2 DOC fluxes from the YC 2.6.3 DOC fluxes and the Arctic carbon budget 2.7 Conclusion and Outlook 2.8 Acknowledgements 3.Transformation of terrestrial organic matter along thermokarst-affected permafrost coasts in the Arctic 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Study area 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Field work 3.3.2 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.3.3 Organic matter 3.3.4 Statistics 3.3.5 Transformation of organic matter 3.3.6 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.4.2 Organic matter 3.4.3 C/N-ratios and δ13C 3.4.4 Biomarkers 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Transformation of organic matter in the disturbed zone 3.5.2 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.5.3 Environmental impact of the RTS 3.6 Conclusion 3.7 Acknowledgements 4. Rapid greenhouse gas release from eroding permafrost coasts 4.1 Summary 4.2 Background 4.3 Study site 4.4 Sampling and incubation setup 4.5 Findings and discussion 4.6 Conclusion 4.7 Methods 4.7.1 Incubation conditions 4.7.2 Gas measurements 4.7.3 Geo- and hydrochemical analysis 4.8 Acknowledgements 5. Synthesis 5.1 Mobilization of permafrost OC pools by coastal erosion 5.2 Transformation of permafrost OM on transit from land to sea 5.3 Fate and pathways of permafrost OC in the nearshore zone 5.4 Conclusion and outlook References Appendix I: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice I-1 Abstract I-2 Introduction I-3 Study area and study sites I-4 Material and methods I-4-1 Laboratory analyses I-4-2 Statistical methods I-5 Results I-5-1 DOC and DIC concentrations I-5-2 Correlation matrix I-5-3 Principal components I-5-4 Univariate Tree Model (UTM) I-6 Discussion I-6-1 DOC stocks in ground ice and relevance to carbon cycling I-6-2 Carbon sequestration and origin in relation to inorganic geochemistry I-6-3 DOC mobility and quality upon permafrost degradation I-7 Conclusions and outlook I-8 Acknowledgements Appendix II: Supplementary material for Chapter 2 II-1 Supplementary table - Ground ice and geochemical data II-2 Supplementary table - Coastal segments and DOC flux Appendix III: Supplementary material for Chapter 3 III-1 Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index map III-2 Photograph of a massive ice bed in a RTS III-3 Calculation of biomarker proxies III-4 Supplementary table - Summary of geochemical data III-5 Supplementary table - Summary of statistical analysis AppendixI V: Supplementary material for Chapter 4 IV-1 Design of the incubation experiment IV-2 Photograph of a standard incubation setup IV-3 Conversion of gas amounts into mass IV-4 Total and daily aerobic CH4 production IV-5 Histogram summarizing OC losses and CO2 emissions IV-6 Supplementary table - Summary of TOC, DOC, and pH data IV-7 Supplementary table - Summary of TN, TOC/TN, and δ13C-TOC data IV-8 Supplementary table - Summary of total CO2 and CH4 production data IV-9 Supplementary table - Comparison of incubation setups IV-10 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CO2 production data IV-11 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CH4 production data Acknowledgements-Danksagung

Anmerkung: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2017 , Table of Contents I. Abstract II. Deutsche Zusammenfassung 0 Challenge 1 Introduction 1.1 The treeline ecotone 1.2 Stand structure drivers in the treeline ecotone 1.3 Climate change and recent treeline changes 1.4 Methods for treeline studies 1.4.1 Overview 1.4.2 Field-based treeline studies 1.4.3 Modelling treeline dynamics 1.5 Study Area 1.6 The Siberian treeline ecotone 1.7 Larix as study Species 1.8 Objectives of this thesis 1.9 Thesis outline 1.10 Contribution of the authors 1.10.1 Manuscript!- published 1.10.2 Manuscript II - submitted 1.10.3 Manuscript III-in preparation 1.10.4 Manuscript IV-submitted 2 Manuscript I Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Materials and Methods 2.3.1 Reference sites 2.3.2 Description of the model LAVESI 2.3.3 The ODD-Protocol for LAVESI 2.3.4 Parameterization 2.3.5 Khatanga climate time-series 2.3.6 Sensitivity analysis 2.3.7 Model experiments 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Sensitivity analysis 2.4.2 Taymyr treeline application 2.4.3 Temperature experiments 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 Assessment of LAVESI sensitivity 2.5.2 Larix stand simulation under the Taymyr Peninsula weather 2.5.3 Transient Larix response to hypothetical future temperature changes 2.5.4 Conclusions 2.6 Acknowledgements 3 Manuscript II Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures - a field and simulation based study 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Study area 3.3.2 Field-based approach 3.3.3 Age analyses 3.3.4 Stand structure analyses 3.3.5 Seed analyses 3.3.6 Establishment history 3.3.7 Modelling approach 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Field data 3.4.2 Simulation study 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Data acquisition 3.5.2 Larch-stand patterns across the Siberian treeline ecotone 3.5.3 Warming causes densification in the forest-tundra 3.5.4 Intra-specific competition inhibits densification in the closed forest 3.5.5 Recruitment limitation decelerates densification and northward expansion ofthe single-tree tundra 3.6 Conclusions 3.7 Acknowledgements 4 Manuscript III Spatial patterns and growth sensitivity of larch stands in the Taimyr Depression 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Methods 4.3.1 Study Area 4.3.2 Field data collection 4.3.3 Spatial point patterns 4.3.4 Dendrological approach 4.4 Results 4.4.1 Spatial patterns 4.4.2 Tree growth 4.5 Discussion 4.5.1 Spatial patterns 4.5.2 Tree chronology characteristics 4.6 Conclusion 5 Manuscript IV Patterns of larch stands under different disturbance regimes in the lower Kolyma River area (Russian Far East) 5.1 Abstract 5.2 Introduction 5.3 Methods 5.3.1 Study area and field data collection 5.3.2 Site description 5.3.3 Dendrochronological approach 5.3.4 Statistical analyses 5.4 Results 5.4.1 General stand characteristics and age structure 5.4.2 Spatial patterns 5.5 Discussion 5.5.1 Fire related disturbances 5.5.2 Water-related disturbances: lake drainage, flooding, polygon development 5.5.3 Implications and conclusion 6 Synthesis and Discussion 6.1 Assessment of applied methods 6.1.1 Field-based observations: 6.1.2 Modelling 6.2 Overview of larch stand structures and spatial pattern on different spatial scales 6.2.1 Recent stand structures 6.2.2 Spatial Patterns 6.3 Stand structure drivers and treeline changes 6.3.1 Climate change 6.3.2 Disturbances 6.3.3 Autecology 6.4 Conclusion 6.5 Outlook 7 Appendix 7.1 Supplementary information for Manuscript I 7.2 Supplementary information for Manuscript II 7.2.1 Manuscript II: Appendix 1. Climatic information for the study region 7.2.2 Manuscript II: Appendix 2. Plot-specific values and krummholz appearance 7.2.3 Manuscript II: Appendix 3. Regression analysis for age data 7.2.4 Manuscript II: Appendix 4. Model description 7.3 Supplementary information for Manuscript III 7.4 Supplementary information for Manuscript IV 7.5 Supplementary information 8 References Danksagung Eidesstattliche Erklärung

Anmerkung: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung Abbreviations and Nomenclature 1. Introduction 1.1 Scientific Background 1.1.1 Climate and Permafrost 1.1.2 Remote Sensing 1.1.3 Research Questions 1.2 General Approach 1.3 Thesis Structure 1.4 Author’ s contributions 1.4.1 Chapter 2 1.4.2 Chapter 3 1.4.3 Chapter 4 1.4.4 Chapter 5 1.4.5 Appendix Paper 1 2. Detection of landscape dynamics in the Arctic Lena Delta withtemporally dense Landsat time-series Stacks 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Study Area and Data 2.3.1 Study Area 2.3.2 Data 2.3.3 Methods/processing 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Regional Scale changes 2.4.2 Local scale changes 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 Regional scale changes 2.5.2 Local scale changes 2.5.3 Data quality 2.5.4 Data usage and outlook 2.6 Conclusion 2.7 Data Archive 2.8 Acknowledgements 2.9 Appendix A. Supplementary Data 3. Landsat-Based Trend Analysis of Lake Dynamics across NorthernPermafrost Regions 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Study Sites 3.3.1 Alaska North Slope (NSL) 3.3.2 Alaska Kobuk-Selawik Lowlands (AKS) 3.3.3 Central Yakutia (CYA) 3.3.4 Kolyma Lowland (KOL) 3.4 Data and Methods 3.4.1 Data and Trend Analysis 3.4.2 Pixel-Based Machine-Leaming Classification 3.4.3 Object-Based Image Analysis 3.4.4 Data Quality and Post-Processing 3.4.5 Calculation of Lake Change Statistics 3.5 Results 3.5.1 NSL (Alaska North Slope) 3.5.2 AKS (Alaska Kobuk-Selawik Lowlands) 3.5.3 CYA (Central Yakutia) 3.5.4 KOL (Kolyma Lowland) 3.6 Discussion 3.6.1 Data Analysis 3.6.2 Comparison of Sites and Prior Studies 3.7 Conclusions 3.8 Supplementary Materials 3.9 Acknowledgements 3.10 Appendix A 4. Remotely sensing recent permafrost region disturbances across Arcticto Subarctic transects 4.1 Abstract 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Results 4.3.1 Lakes 4.3.2 Retrogressive Thaw Slumps 4.3.3 Wildfire 4.4 Discussion 4.5 Methods 4.5.1 Remote Sensing Data Processing 4.5.2 Auxiliary Data Sources 5. Tundra landform and Vegetation productivity trend maps for theArctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska 5.1 Abstract 5.2 Background & Summary 5.3 Methods 5.3.1 Polygonal tundra geomorphology mapping 5.3.2 Image processing 5.3.3 Image Classification 5.3.4 Decadal scale NDVI trend analysis 5.4 Data Records 5.5 Technical Validation 5.5.1 Tundra Geomorphology Map 5.5.2 NDVI Trend Map 5.6 Data Citation 6. Discussion/Synthesis 6.1 Landsat-based trend analysis 6.1.1 Spatial Scale 6.1.2 Time series analysis 6.1.3 Model complexity 6.2 Mapping of permafrost landscape dynamics 6.2.1 Lake dynamics 6.2.2 Wildfire 6.2.3 Retrogressive Thaw Slumps 6.3 Pan-arctic scale distribution and consequences of changes inpermafrost 6.4 Outlook Bibliography A-1. Appendix: Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions A-1.1 Abstract A-1.2 Introduction A-1.3 Methods A-1.4 Results A-1.5 Discussion Danksagung/Acknowledgements Eidesstattliche Erklärung

Anmerkung: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung 1 Motivation 2 Introduction 2.1 Arctic climate changes and their impacts on Coastal processes 2.2 Shoreline retreat along Arctic coasts 2.3 Impacts of Coastal erosion 2.3.1 Material fluxes 2.3.2 Retrogressive thaw slumps 2.3.3 Socio-economic impacts 2.4 Objectives 2.5 Study area 2.6 Thesis structure 2.7 Authors’ contributions 3 Variability in rates of Coastal change along the Yukon coast, 1951 to 2015 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Study Area 3.3 Data and Methods 3.3.1 Remote sensing data 3.3.2 Field survey data 3.3.3 Classification of shoreline 3.3.4 Transect-wise analyses of shoreline movements through time 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Temporal variations in shoreline change rates 3.4.2 Alongshore rates of change 3.4.3 Shoreline dynamics along field sites 3.4.4 Dynamics of lagoons, barrier Islands and spits (gravel features) 3.4.5 Yukon Territory land loss 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Temporal variations in shoreline change rates 3.5.2 Alongshore rates of change 3.5.3 Dynamics of lagoons, barrier Islands, and spits (gravel features) 3.5.4 Expected shoreline changes as a consequence of future climate warming 3.6 Conclusions Context 4 Coastal erosion of permafrost Solls along the Yukon Coastal Plain and Kuxes oforganic carbon to the Canadian Beaufort Sea 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Study Area 4.3 Methods 4.3.1 Sample collection and laboratory analyses 4.3.2 Soll organic carbon determinations 4.3.3 Flux of organic soil carbon and Sediments 4.3.4 Fate of the eroded soil organic carbon 4.4 Results 4.4.1 Ground lce 4.4.2 Organic carbon contents 4.4.3 Material fluxes 4.5 Discussion 4.5.1 Ground lce 4.5.2 Organic carbon contents 4.5.3 Material fluxes 4.5.4 Organic carbon in nearshore Sediments 4.6 Conclusion Context 5 Terrain Controls on the occurrence of Coastal retrogressive thaw slumpsalong the Yukon Coast, Canada 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Study Area 5.3 Methods 5.3.1 Mapping of RTSs and landform Classification 5.3.2 Environmental variables 5.3.3 Univariate regression trees 5.4 Results 5.4.1 Characteristics of RTS along the coast 5.4.2 Density and areal coverage od RTSs along the Yukon Coast 5.5 Discussion 5.5.1 Characteristics and distribution of RTSs along the Yukon Coast 5.5.2 Terrain factors explaining RTS occurrence 5.5.3 Coastal processes 5.6 Conclusions Context 6 Impacts of past and fiiture Coastal changes on the Yukon coast - threats forcultural sites, infrastructure and travel routes 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Study Area 6.3 Methods 6.3.1 Data for shoreline projections 6.3.2 Shoreline projection for the conservative scenario (S1) 6.3.3 Shoreline Projection for the dynamic scenario (S2) 6.3.4 Positioning and characterizing of cultural sites 6.3.5 Calculation of losses under the S1 and S2 scenarios 6.3.6 Estimation of future dynamics in very dynamic areas 6.4 Results and discussion 6.4.1 Past and future shoreline change rates 6.4.2 Cultural sites 6.4.3 Infrastructure and travel routes 6.5 Conclusions 7 Discussion 7.1 The importance of understanding climatic drivers of Coastal changes 7.2 The influence of shoreline change rates on retrogressive thaw slump activity 7.3 On the calculation of carbon fluxes from Coastal erosion along the Yukon coast 7.4 Impacts of present and future Coastal erosion on the natural and human environment 7.5 Synthesis 8 Summary and Conclusions Bibliography Supporting Material Data Set ds01 Table S1 Table S3 Abbreviations and Nomendature Acknowledgements

Anmerkung: Table of Contents Abstract Kurzfassung Abbreviations and nomenclature 1. Introduction 2. Scientific Background 2.1. Permafrost 2.2.Retrogressive Thaw Slumps 2.3. Inputs of Freshwater, Sediment and Carbon into the Canadian Beaufort Sea 3. Study Area 3.1. Regional Setting: Yukon Coast and Herschel Island 3.2. Retrogressive Thaw Slumps 4. Material and Methods 4.1. Field Work 4.1.1. Terrain Photography 4.1.2. Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) 4.1.3. Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 4.1.4. Micrometeorology 4.1.5. Discharge Measurement 4.1.6. Multiple Regression-Statistical Relationships between Micrometeorological Variables and Discharge 4.1.7. Sampling 4.2. Laboratory Analyses 4.2.1. Sedimentological Analyses 4.2.2. Hydrochemical Analyses 4.3. Fluxes of Sediment and (In-) Organic Matter 5. Results 5.1. Field Work 5.1.1. Terrain Photography 5.1.2. Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) 5.1.3. Light Detecting And Ranging (LiDAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 5.1.4. Micrometeorology 5.1.5. Discharge 5.1.6. Multiple Regression - Statistical Relationships between Micrometeorology and Discharge 5.2. Laboratory Analyses 5.2.1. Sedimentological Analyses 5.2.2. Hydrochemical Analyses 5.3. Fluxes of Sediment-meltwater 6. Discussion 6.1. Microclimatological and Geomorphological Factors Controlling Discharge 6.1.1. Diurnal Variations 6.1.2. Seasonal Variations 6.2. Contribution of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps to the Sediment Budget of the Yukon Coast 6.2.1. Origin of Outflow Material 6.2.2. Slump D in the Regional Context 6.2.3. Seasonal Sediment Budget Compilation for Slump D 6.2.4. Retrogressive Thaw Slump Occurrence along the Yukon Coast 6.2.5. Input to the Beaufort Sea 6.3. Projected Climatic Change and its Impact on Retrogressive Thaw Slump Outflow 6.4. Uncertainties and Limitations 6.5. Future Research 7. Conclusion 8. Appendix 8.1. Field Work 8.1.1. Slump D's northern headwall profile 8.1.2. Collinson Head slump 8.1.3. Herschel Island West Coast slump 8.1.4. Roland Bay slump 8.1.5. Kay Point slump 8.2. Laboratory Work 8.2.1. Volumetric Ice Content 8.2.2. Grain Size 8.3. Evolution of Slump D 8.3.1. Geo Eye satellite of Slump D 8.3.2. Aerial Oblique Photography of Slump D 8.3.3. LiDAR of Slump D 8.3.4. Time Lapse Photography of Slump D's Headwall 9. References 10. Financial and technical support 11. Acknowledgement - Danksagung

Anmerkung: Contents: 1 General Introduction. - 1.1 The Climate System. - 1.2 The Atmosphere. - 1.3 Energy Budget and Atmospheric Composition. - 1.4 The Water Cycle. - 1.5 Aerosols and Climate Change. - 1.6 Outline of this Textbook. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles. - 2 Atmospheric Aerosols. - 2.1 Definitions. - 2.2 Sources of Aerosols and Aerosol Precursors. - 2.2.1 Marine Aerosols. - 2.2.2 Desert Dust. - 2.2.3 Volcanic Aerosols. - 2.2.4 Biogenic Aerosols. - 2.2.5 Biomass Burning Aerosols. - 2.2.6 Aerosols from Fossil Fuel Combustion. - 2.3 Spatial and Temporal Aerosol Distributions. - 2.4 Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions. - 2.5 Climate Effects of Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 3 Physical, Chemical and Optical Aerosol Properties. - 3.1 Fine, Accumulation and Coarse Modes. - 3.2 Size Distribution. - 3.3 Chemical Composition. - 3.3.1 Aerosol Mixture. - 3.3.2 Inorganic Aerosols. - 3.3.3 Black Carbon Aerosols. - 3.3.4 Organic Aerosols. - 3.3.5 Geographic Distribution of Aerosol Chemical Composition. - 3.4 Refractive Index. - 3.5 Deliquescence, Efflorescence and Hysteresis. - 3.6 Definition of Aerosol Optical Properties. - 3.6.1 Absorption and Scattering Cross Sections. - 3.6.2 Phase Function. - 3.6.3 Upscatter Fractions. - 3.7 Calculation of Aerosol Optical Properties. - 3.7.1 Mie Theory. - 3. 7.2 Extinction, Scattering and Absorption. - 3.7.3 Optical Depth and Angström Coefficient. - 3.8 Optical Properties of Nonspherical Aerosols. - 3.9 Aerosols and Atmospheric Visibility. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 4 Aerosol Modelling. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 Emissions. - 4.2.1 Generalities. - 4.2.2 Fossil Fuels, Biofuels, and Other Anthropogenic Sources. - 4.2.3 Vegetation Fires. - 4.2.4 Sea Spray. - 4.2.5 Desert Dust. - 4.2.6 Dimethylsulphide. - 4.2.7 Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds. - 4.2.8 Volcanoes. - 4.2.9 Resuspension. - 4.3 Atmospheric Processes. - 4.3.1 Nucleation. - 4.3.2 Condensation of Semi-Volatile Compounds. - 4.3.3 Coagulation. - 4.3.4 In-Cloud Aerosol Production. - 4.3.5 Wet Deposition. - 4.3.6 Dry Deposition. - 4.3.7 Sedimentation. - 4.3.8 Aerosol Transport. - 4.4 Modelling Approaches. - 4.4.1 Bulk Approach. - 4.4.2 Sectional Approach. - 4.4.3 Modal Approach. - 4.5 Example: The Sulphur Budget. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 5 Interactions of Radiation with Matter and Atmospheric Radiative Transfer. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.2 Electromagnetic Radiation. - 5.2.1 Generalities. - 5.2.2 Definitions. - 5.3 Interactions of Radiation with Matter. - 5.3.1 Matter, Energy and Spectral Lines. - 5.3.2 Intensity of Spectral Lines. - 5.3.3 Spectral Line Profiles. - 5.3.4 Processes of lnteractions of Radiation with Matter. - 5.4 Modelling of the Interaction Processes. - 5.4.1 Molecular Absorption Coefficient. - 5.4.2 Scattering Phase Function. - 5.4.3 Molecular Scattering. - 5.4.4 Absorption and Scattering by Aerosols. - 5.4.5 Thermal Emission. - 5.5 Atmospheric Radiative Transfer. - 5.5.1 Equation of Radiative Transfer. - 5.5.2 Extinction Only. - 5.5.3 Scattering Medium. - 5.5.4 Plane-Parallel Atmosphere. - 5.5.5 Resolution of the Equation of Radiative Transfer. - 5.6 Absorption Bands, Energy, and Actinic Fluxes. - 5.6.1 Main Molecular Absorption Bands in the Atmosphere. - 5.6.2 Radiative Flux. - 5.6.3 Two-Flux Method. - 5.6.4 Stefan-Boltzmann Law. - 5.6.5 Radiative Budget. - 5.6.6 Actinic Fluxes. - 5.6.7 Polarization of Radiation. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 6 In Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosols. - 6.1 Introduction to Aerosol Remote Sensing. - 6.2 Passive Remote Sensing: Measurement of the Extinction. - 6.2.1 General Principles. - 6.2.2 Ground-Based Photometry. - 6.2.3 Spaceborne Occultation Measurements. - 6.2.4 Retrieval of Aerosol Size Distribution. - 6.3 Passive Remote Sensing: Measurement of the Scattering. - 6.3.1 General Principles. - 6.3.2 Ground-Based Measurement of Scattered Radiation. - 6.3.3 Spaceborne Measurements of Scattered Radiation. - 6.4 Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.4.1 General Principles. - 6.4.2 Spaceborne Nadir Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.4.3 Spaceborne Limb Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.5 Active Remote Sensing: Lidar. - 6.5.1 General Principles. - 6.5.2 The Lidar Equation. - 6.5.3 Raman Lidar. - 6.6 In Situ Aerosol Measurements. - 6.6.1 Measurement of Aerosol Concentrations. - 6.6.2 Measurement of Aerosol Chemical Composition. - 6.6.3 Measurement of Aerosol Scattering. - 6.6.4 Measurement of Aerosol Absorption. - 6.7 Conclusions. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 7 Aerosol Data Assimilation. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 Basic Principles of Data Assimilation. - 7.3 Applications of Data Assimilation for Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 8 Aerosol-Radiation Interactions. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Atmospheric Radiative Effects Due to Aerosols. - 8.2.1 Simplified Equation for Scattering Aerosols. - 8.2.2 Simplified Equation for Absorbing Aerosols. - 8.2.3 Radiative Transfer Calculations. - 8.2.4 Global Estimates and Sources of Uncertainty. - 8.3 Rapid Adjustments to Aerosol-Radiation Interactions. - 8.4 Radiative Impact of Aerosols on Surface Snow and Ice. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 9 Aerosol-Cloud lnteractions. - 39.1 Introduction. - 9 .1.1 Cloud Formation. - 9 .1.2 Cloud Distribution. - 9 .1.3 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions. - 9.2 Aerosol Effects on Liquid Clouds. - 9 .2.1 Saturation Pressure of Water Vapour. - 9.2.2 Kelvin Effect. - 9.2.3 Raoult's Law. - . - 9.2.4 Köhler Theory. - 9.2.5 Extensions to the Köhler Theory. - 9.2.6 CCN and Supersaturation in the Cloud. - 9.2.7 Dynamical and Radiative Effects in Clouds. - 9.2.8 Principle of the Cloud Albedo Effect. - 9.2.9 Observations of the Cloud Albedo Effect. - 9.2.10 Adjustments in Liquid Water Clouds. - 9.2.11 Rapid Adjustments Occurring in Liquid Clouds. - 9.3 Aerosols Effects on Mixed-Phased and Ice Clouds. - 9.3.1 Elements of Microphysics of Ice Clouds. - 9.3.2 Impact of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Ice Clouds. - 9.4 Forcing Due to Aerosol-Cloud lnteractions. - 9.5 Aerosols, Contrails and Aviation-Induced Cloudiness. - 9.5.1 Formation of Condensation Trails. - 9.5.2 Estimate of the Climate Impact of Contrails. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 10 Climate Response to Aerosol Forcings. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Radiative Forcing, Feedbacks and Climate Response. - 10.2.1 Radiative Forcing. - 10.2.2 Climate Feedbacks. - 10.2.3 Rapid Adjustments and Effective Radiative Forcing. - 10.2.4 Climate Response and Climate Efficacy. - 10.3 Climate Response to Aerosol Forcings. - 10.3.1 Equilibrium Response. - 10.3.2 Past Emissions. - 10.3.3 Detection and Attribution of Aerosol Impacts. - 10.3.4 Future Emissions Scenarios. - 10.4 Nuclear Winter. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 11 Biogeochemical Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Aerosols. - 11 .1 Introduction. - 11.2 Impact of Aerosols on Terrestrial Ecosystems. - 11.2.1 Diffuse Radiation and Primary Productivity. - 11.2.2 Aerosols as a Source of Nutrients. - 11.2.3 Acidification of Precipitation. - 11.3 Impact of Aerosols on Marine Ecosystems. - 11.4 Aerosols-Atmospheric Chemistry Interactions. - 11.4.1 Interactions with Tropospheric Chemistry. - 11.4.2 Impact of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Ozone Layer and Ultravialet Radiation. - 11.5 Climate Feedbacks Involving Marine Aerosols. - 11.5.1 Sulphate Aerosols from DMS Emissions. - 11.5.2 Marine Aerosols. - 11.5.3 Other Aerosols of Maritime Origin. - 11.6 Climate Feedbacks Involving Continental Aerosols. - 11.6.1 Secondary Organic Aerosols. - 11.6.2 Primary Aerosols of Biogenic Origin. - 11.6.3 Aerosols from Vegetation Fires. - 11.6.4 Desert Dust. - 11.7 Climate Feedbacks Involving Stratospheric Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 12 Strato

Anmerkung: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Anmerkung: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.

Anmerkung: Contents Introduction 1. Isotope hydrology: a historical perspective / P.K. Aggarwal, K. Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, J.R. Gat ISOTOPIC AND NUCLEAR METHODOLOGIES 2. Isotopic tracers for obtaining hydrologic parameters / H. Moser, W. Rauert 3. Hydrologic process studies using radionuclides produced by cosmic rays / D.Lal 4. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes / L.L. Gourcy, M. Groening, P.K. Aggarwal 5. Tritium in the hydrologic cycle / R.L. Michel 6. Assessing sources and transformations of sulphate and nitrate in the hydrosphere using isotope techniques / B. Mayer 7. Rare gases / H.H. Loosli, R. Purtschert 8. U and Th series nuclides in natural waters / A. Kaufman 9. Optical isotope ratio measurements in hydrology / E.R.Th. Kerstel, H.A.J. Meijer HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 10. Some classical concepts of isotope hydrology / J.R. Gat 11. Istotopes in lake studies: a historical perspective / K.Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, K. Rozanski 12. A review of isotope applications in catchment hydrology / T. Vitvar, P.K. Aggarwal, J.J. McDonnell 13. Contribution of isotopic and nuclear tracers to study of groundwaters / W.M. Edmunds 14. Dating of young groundwater / LN. Plummer 15. Dating of old groundwater - history, potential, limits and future / M.A. Geyh 16. Geotermal systems / Y.K. Kharaka, R.H. Mariner 17. Saline waters / J. Horita HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18. Isotopes in atmospheric moisture / K. Rozanski 19. How much climatic information do water isotopes contain? / G. Hoffmann, M. Cuntz, J. Jouzel, M. Werner 20. Stable isotopes through the holocene as recorded in low-latitude, high-altitude ice cores / L.G. Thompson, M.E. Davis 21. Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change / W.M. Edmunds 22. Isotopic palaeolimnology / F. Gasse Appendices A. List of seminal papers on isotope hydrology (the isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) B. List of papers presented at the 1st IAEA Symposium on Isotope Hydrology (Tokyo, 1963) C. Excerpts from report of 1st IAEA Panel on the Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology

Anmerkung: Potsdam, Univ., Habil.-Schr., 2005