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  • Articles
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  • CITATION GEO-LEO  (10)
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  • ddc:551.6  (9)
  • ddc:551.9  (1)
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  • Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ
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  • CITATION GEO-LEO  (10)
  • Articles and Proceedings (GFZpublic)
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  • 1
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation for tropical waves in the MJO skeleton model (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of tropical intraseasonal variability, with wide‐reaching impacts even on extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, predicting the MJO is challenging. One reason is the suboptimal state estimates obtained with standard data assimilation (DA) approaches. These are typically based on filtering methods with Gaussian approximations and do not take into account physical properties that are important specifically for the MJO. In this article, a constrained ensemble DA method is applied to study the impact of different physical constraints on the state estimation and prediction of the MJO. The quadratic programming ensemble (QPEns) algorithm utilized extends the standard stochastic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with specifiable constraints on the updates of all ensemble members. This allows us to recover physically more consistent states and to respect possible associated non‐Gaussian statistics. The study is based on identical twin experiments with an adopted nonlinear model for tropical intraseasonal variability. This so‐called skeleton model succeeds in reproducing the main large‐scale features of the MJO and closely related tropical waves, while keeping adequate simplicity for fast experiments on intraseasonal time‐scales. Conservation laws and other crucial physical properties from the model are examined as constraints in the QPEns. Our results demonstrate an overall improvement in the filtering and forecast skill when the model's total energy is conserved in the initial conditions. The degree of benefit is found to be dependent on the observational setup and the strength of the model's nonlinear dynamics. It is also shown that, even in cases where the statistical error in some waves remains comparable with the stochastic EnKF during the DA stage, their prediction is improved remarkably when using the initial state resulting from the QPEns.
    Description: Unsatisfactory predictions of the MJO are partly due to DA methods that do not respect non‐Gaussian PDFs and the physical properties of the tropical atmosphere. Therefore the QPEns, an algorithm extending a stochastic EnKF with state constraints, is tested here on a simplified model for the MJO and associated tropical waves. Our series of identical twin experiments shows, in particular, that a constraint on the truth's nonlinear total energy improves forecasts statistically and can, in certain situations, even prevent filter divergence. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft : Heisenberg Award (DFG JA1077/4‐1); Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB / TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Office of Naval Research (ONR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Impact of a large artificial lake on regional climate: A typical meteorological year Meso‐NH simulation results (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Large artificial lakes and reservoirs affect the meteorological regime of the shore area and the local climate takes on a number of new features that were previously absent. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe. An extensive set of numerical simulations using Meso‐NH mesoscale atmospheric model coupled with FLake (Freshwater Lake) scheme was carried out. The simulations covered a 12‐month period that was chosen to compose a so‐called Typical Meteorological Year. This artificial time period is meant to represent the typical meteorological conditions in the region and the model results are used to assess the changes in the local climate. To evaluate the raw impact of the reservoir, two different scenarios of simulations were compared: (A) with the reservoir as it exists nowadays and (B) without the reservoir using the older surface dataset. The results show decrease of air temperature during daytime (10–9°C) and nighttime increase (up to 10°C). In nearest towns, daily maximum temperature decreased and daily minimum temperature increased, which refers to milder weather conditions. Alqueva mainly showed suppression in fog formation in the nearby area. Local breeze regime was studied and monthly lake/land breezes were described.
    Description: Large lakes and artificial reservoirs can affect the meteorological regime of their coastal areas and impact the local climate. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe, studied on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric modelling data over the 12‐month period composed in a typical meteorological year for the region of interest.
    Description: ALOP project
    Description: COMPETE 2020 ICT project
    Description: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
    Description: TOMAQAPA
    Description: http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh54/Download
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Do tree species affect decadal changes in soil organic carbon and total nitrogen stocks in Danish common garden experiments? (2021)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Temperate forest soils are often considered as an important sink for atmospheric carbon (C), thereby buffering anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the effect of tree species composition on the magnitude of this sink is unclear. We resampled a tree species common garden experiment (six sites) a decade after initial sampling to evaluate whether forest floor (FF) and topsoil organic carbon (Corg) and total nitrogen (Nt) stocks changed in dependence of tree species (Norway spruce—Picea abies L., European beech—Fagus sylvatica L., pedunculate oak—Quercus robur L., sycamore maple—Acer pseudoplatanus L., European ash—Fraxinus excelsior L. and small‐leaved lime—Tilia cordata L.). Two groups of species were identified in terms of Corg and Nt distribution: (1) Spruce with high Corg and Nt stocks in the FF developed as a mor humus layer which tended to have smaller Corg and Nt stocks and a wider Corg:Nt ratio in the mineral topsoil, and (2) the broadleaved species, of which ash and maple distinguished most clearly from spruce by very low Corg and Nt stocks in the FF developed as mull humus layer, had greater Corg and Nt stocks, and narrow Corg:Nt ratios in the mineral topsoil. Over 11 years, FF Corg and Nt stocks increased most under spruce, while small decreases in bulk mineral soil (esp. in 0–15 cm and 0–30 cm depth) Corg and Nt stocks dominated irrespective of species. Observed decadal changes were associated with site‐related and tree species‐mediated soil properties in a way that hinted towards short‐term accumulation and mineralisation dynamics of easily available organic substances. We found no indication for Corg stabilisation. However, results indicated increasing Nt stabilisation with increasing biomass of burrowing earthworms, which were highest under ash, lime and maple and lowest under spruce. Highlights We studied if tree species differences in topsoil Corg and Nt stocks substantiate after a decade. The study is unique in its repeated soil sampling in a multisite common garden experiment. Forest floors increased under spruce, but topsoil stocks decreased irrespective of species. Changes were of short‐term nature. Nitrogen was most stable under arbuscular mycorrhizal species.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaff (DFG)
    Keywords: ddc:551.9 ; ddc:631.41
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    A nonlocal three‐dimensional turbulence parameterization (NLT3D) for numerical weather prediction models (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-30
    Description: With increasing resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, classical subgrid‐scale processes become increasingly resolved on the model grid. In particular, turbulence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is vertically already partially resolved in contemporary models. For classical local PBL schemes, resulting up‐gradient heat transports cannot be treated correctly. Thus, nonlocal turbulence schemes have been developed in the past. As the horizontal grid sizes of NWP models become smaller than a few kilometers, the large turbulence eddies in the PBL will also start to become partially resolved in the horizontal direction. A very flexible way to formulate nonlocal turbulent exchange is the transilient matrix method, which is used here to develop a new turbulence parameterization. The resulting NLT3D scheme applies transilient mixing matrices to subgrid‐scale transports in all three dimensions. We compare results of WRF real‐case simulations including our scheme, a classical local turbulence scheme (MYNN), and an existing nonlocal one‐dimensional scheme (ACM2) with observations from field campaigns over homogeneous terrain (CASES‐99) and complex terrain (CAPTEX). Over homogeneous terrain, all three schemes similarly well capture the observed surface fluxes and radiosonde profiles, whereas over complex terrain more differences become obvious. During a tracer release experiment (CAPTEX) over the Appalachian mountain region, the mixing and vertical extent of the PBL turn out to be decisive to reproduce the observed advection speed of the tracer‐marked air mass. Deeper mixing not only accelerates surface winds but also enables tracer to travel faster at higher altitudes and then mix back to the ground. As results from a version of NLT3D with only standard horizontal Smagorinsky diffusion (NLT1D) demonstrate, simulating three‐dimensional turbulence can be beneficial already at horizontal grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Decreasing grid sizes in numerical weather prediction models demand the inclusion of nonlocal effects and horizontal turbulence in turbulence parameterizations. This is the motivation for the development of the nonlocal three‐dimensional turbulence (NLT3D) scheme. Vertical nonlocal mixing accelerates the horizontal transport of near‐surface tracers by fast advection at higher altitudes (see figure), and horizontal turbulence enhances tracer dispersion. As validated by observations, both effects are beneficial to the forecast quality already at grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: Weather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons.
    Description: The overall sub‐seasonal forecast performance (biases and skill) for predicting seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes is highest in winter and lowest in summer. The year‐round skill horizon is shortest for the European Blocking and longest for the Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking (see figure). Furthermore, the winter skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex but reduced following a weak one. Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 4 and 7 tend to increase and phase 2 to decrease the year‐round skill horizon.
    Description: Helmholtz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: The Tianshan Mountains, with their status as ‘water tower’, receive quantities of precipitation that are among the highest in Central Asia. There are considerable knowledge gaps regarding the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over this water‐scarce region. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, this study evaluated the precipitation variations over Tianshan Mountains on different time scales by using Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test approaches and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The results show that (a) most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years; (b) the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐ and 6‐year quasi‐periods and low‐frequency variations with 12‐, 27‐year quasi‐periods. On the decadal scale, Tianshan had two dry periods (1950–1962 and 1973–1984) and two wet periods (1962–1972 and 1985–2016) and has experienced a tendency of continuous humidification since 2004; (c) the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains shows a strong seasonality. In total, 63.6% of all precipitation falls in spring and summer. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions. Obvious upward trends of precipitation over Eastern Tianshan were found in all seasons, with Eastern Tianshan entering a humid period as early as 1986. Northern and Central Tianshan experienced a decreasing trend in summer and spring. However, in the other seasons, those two sub‐Tianshan regions have been in humid periods since the 1990s. The precipitation over Western Tianshan showed an upward trend in summer and autumn. The obvious downward trends in spring and winter have led to dry periods in these two seasons from 1997–2014 to 2008–2016, respectively.
    Description: Most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions.
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin National Natural Science Foundation of China
    Description: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.
    Description: Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century.
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Recent evidence for warmer and drier growing seasons in climate sensitive regions of Central America from multiple global datasets (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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