ALBERT

Description: Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Description: Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Description: Final Document is attached. The Robotic External Leak Locator (RELL) was deployed to the International Space Station (ISS) with the goal of detecting and locating on-orbit leaks around the ISS. Three activities to investigate and corroborate the background natural and induced environment of ISS were performed with RELL as part of the on-orbit validation and demonstration conducted in November December 2016. The first demonstration activity pointed RELL directly in the ram and wake directions for one orbit each. The ram facing measurements showed high partial pressure for mass-to-charge ratio 16, corresponding to atomic oxygen (AO), as well as the presence of mass-to-charge ratio 17. RELLs view in the wake-facing direction included more ISS structure and several Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on-orbit vents were detected, including the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA), Russian segment ECLSS, and Sabatier vents. The second demonstration activity pointed RELL at three faces of the P1 Truss segment. Effluents from ECLSS and European Space Agency (ESA) Columbus module on-orbit vents were detected by RELL. The partial pressures of mass-to-charge ratios 17 and 18 remained consistent with the first on-orbit activity of characterizing the natural environment. The third demonstration activity involved RELL scanning an Active Thermal Control System (ATCS) radiator. Three locations along the radiator were scanned and the angular position of RELL with respect to the radiator was varied. Mass-to-charge ratios 16 and 17 both had upward shifts in partial pressure when pointing toward the Radiator Beam Valve Modules (RBVMs), likely corresponding to a known, small ammonia leak.

Description: Earth science research and application requirements for multispectral data have often been driven by currently available remote sensing technology. Few parametric studies exist that specify data required for certain applications. Consequently, data requirements are often defined based on the best data available or on what has worked successfully in the past. Since properites such as spatial resolution, swath width, spectral bands, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), data quantization, and band-to-band registration drive sensor platform and spaceraft system architecture and cost, analysis of these criteria is important to objectively optimize system design. Remote sensing data requirements are also linked to calibration and characterization methods. Parameters such as spatial resolution, radiometric accuracy, and geopositional accuracy affect the complexity and cost of calibration methods. However, there are few studies that quantify the true accuracies required for specific problems. As calibration methods and standards are proposed, it is important that they be tied to well-known data requirements. The Application Research Toolbox (ART) developed at Stennis Space Center provides a simulation-based method for multispectral data requirements development. The ART produces simulated data sets from hyperspectral data through band synthesis. Parameters such as spectral band shape and width, SNR, data quantization, spatial resolution, and band-to-band registration can be varied to create many different simulated data products. Simulated data utility can then be assessed for different applications so that requirements can be better understood. This paper describes the ART and its applicability for rigorously deriving remote sensing data requirements.

Description: Final document is attached. This paper proposes an enhanced control technique for stationkeeping maneuvers to reduce delta-v costs for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO). A scheduled circularization control technique exploits patterns in the evolution of the line of apsides and eccentricity to achieve a significant reduction in stationkeeping delta-v costs based on spacecraft requirements. The technique is compared against previous algorithms implemented for maneuver operations of the Lunar Prospector and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) missions in the USA and KAGUYA in Japan. Through Monte Carlo analysis, the efficacy and robustness of the proposed method are verified, and the technique is shown to meet the operational requirements of KPLO.

Description: This paper details a novel scheme for autonomous component health management (ACHM) with failed actuator detection and failed sensor detection, identification, and avoidance. This new scheme has features that far exceed the performance of systems with triple-redundant sensing and voting, yet requires fewer sensors and could be applied to any system with redundant sensing. Relevant background to the ACHM scheme is provided, and the simulation results for the application of that scheme to a single-axis spacecraft attitude control system with a 3rd order plant and dual-redundant measurement of system states are presented. ACHM fulfills key functions needed by an integrated vehicle health monitoring (IVHM) system. It is: autonomous; adaptive; works in realtime; provides optimal state estimation; identifies failed components; avoids failed components; reconfigures for multiple failures; reconfigures for intermittent failures; works for hard-over, soft, and zero-output failures; and works for both open- and closed-loop systems. The ACHM scheme combines a prefilter that generates preliminary state estimates, detects and identifies failed sensors and actuators, and avoids the use of failed sensors in state estimation with a fixed-gain Kalman filter that generates optimal state estimates and provides model-based state estimates that comprise an integral part of the failure detection logic. The results show that ACHM successfully isolates multiple persistent and intermittent hard-over, soft, and zero-output failures. It is now ready to be tested on a computer model of an actual system.

Description: The Earth science community needs to generate consistent and standard definitions for spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric properties describing passive electro-optical Earth observing sensors and their products. The parameters used to describe sensors and to describe their products are often confused. In some cases, parameters for a sensor and for its products are identical; in other cases, these parameters vary widely. Sensor parameters are bound by the fundamental performance of a system, while product parameters describe what is available to the end user. Products are often resampled, edge sharpened, pan-sharpened, or compressed, and can differ drastically from the intrinsic data acquired by the sensor. Because detailed sensor performance information may not be readily available to an international science community, standardization of product parameters is of primary performance. Spatial product parameters described include Modulation Transfer Function (MTF), point spread function, line spread function, edge response, stray light, edge sharpening, aliasing, ringing, and compression effects. Spectral product parameters discussed include full width half maximum, ripple, slope edge, and out-of-band rejection. Radiometric product properties discussed include relative and absolute radiometry, noise equivalent spectral radiance, noise equivalent temperature diffenence, and signal-to-noise ratio. Geometric product properties discussed include geopositional accuracy expressed as CE90, LE90, and root mean square error. Correlated properties discussed include such parameters as band-to-band registration, which is both a spectral and a spatial property. In addition, the proliferation of staring and pushbroom sensor architectures requires new parameters to describe artifacts that are different from traditional cross-track system artifacts. A better understanding of how various system parameters affect product performance is also needed to better ascertain the utility of existing datasets and products as well as to specify the performance of new sensors and products. Examples of simulations performed for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission illustrate how various parameters affect system and product performance. Specific examples include the effects of ground sample distance, MTF, and band-to-band registration on various products.

Description: Scientists at NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate are creating a well-characterized Verification & Validation (V&V) site at the Stennis Space Center. This site enables the in-flight characterization of remote sensing systems and the data they acquire. The data are predominantly acquired by commercial, high spatial resolution satellite systems, such as IKONOS and QuickBird 2, and airborne systems. The smaller scale of these newer high resolution remote sensing systems allows scientists to characterize the geometric, spatial, and radiometric data properties using a single V&V site. The targets and techniques used to characterize data from these newer systems can differ significantly from the techniques used to characterize data from the earlier, coarser spatial resolution systems. Scientists are also using the SSC V&V site to characterize thermal infrared systems and active LIDAR systems. SSC employs geodetic targets, edge targets, radiometric tarps, and thermal calibration ponds to characterize remote sensing data products. This paper presents a proposed set of required measurements for visible through long-wave infrared remote sensing systems and a description of the Stennis characterization. Other topics discussed include: 1) The use of ancillary atmospheric and solar measurements taken at SSC that support various characterizations; 2) Additional sites used for radiometric, geometric, and spatial characterization in the continental United States; 3) The need for a standardized technique to be adopted by CEOS and other organizations.

Description: The pre-launch ground infrared calibration of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) N-Q Imager and Sounder is presented. Ground calibration provides information necessary to the accurate on-orbit calibration of these radiometers. Infrared channels are calibrated in a thermal vacuum environment, under minimum and maximum mission operation temperatures, using a variable-temperature warm target to simulate the Earth scene and a cold target to simulate the space scene. Brightness temperatures derived from observation of the instrument internal calibration target, used for on-orbit calibration, are compared to brightness temperatures of the external calibration target as a check of relative accuracy using these two sources. Changes to the GOES N-Q specification from GOES I-M are highlighted, as well as results of noise, relative calibration accuracy, and spectral response performance to date. For completeness, results of spatial and pointing performance will be presented. Enhancements to test methodology and data processing techniques are highlighted throughout.

Description: The Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) has been designed to advance our understanding of the terrestrial cryosphere. Developing a more complete understanding of fluxes, storage, and transformations of water and energy in cold land areas is a critical focus of the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy, the NASA Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) Initiative, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), and the GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP). The movement of water and energy through cold regions in turn plays a large role in ecological activity and biogeochemical cycles. Quantitative understanding of cold land processes over large areas will require synergistic advancements in 1) understanding how cold land processes, most comprehensively understood at local or hillslope scales, extend to larger scales, 2) improved representation of cold land processes in coupled and uncoupled land-surface models, and 3) a breakthrough in large-scale observation of hydrologic properties, including snow characteristics, soil moisture, the extent of frozen soils, and the transition between frozen and thawed soil conditions. The CLPX Plan has been developed through the efforts of over 60 interested scientists that have participated in the NASA Cold Land Processes Working Group (CLPWG). This group is charged with the task of assessing, planning and implementing the required background science, technology, and application infrastructure to support successful land surface hydrology remote sensing space missions. A major product of the experiment will be a comprehensive, legacy data set that will energize many aspects of cold land processes research. The CLPX will focus on developing the quantitative understanding, models, and measurements necessary to extend our local-scale understanding of water fluxes, storage, and transformations to regional and global scales. The experiment will particularly emphasize developing a strong synergism between process-oriented understanding, land surface models and microwave remote sensing. The experimental design is a multi-sensor, multi-scale (1-ha to 160,000 km ^ {2}) approach to providing the comprehensive data set necessary to address several experiment objectives. A description focusing on the microwave remote sensing components (ground, airborne, and spaceborne) of the experiment will be presented.