ALBERT

Description: We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of 2.0Wm(exp2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (2.0Wm2), nitrate (0.2Wm(exp2), organic carbon (0.2Wm(exp2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Description: We use aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC campaigns in April 2008 together with multiyear (2003-2008) CO satellite data from the AIRS instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to better understand the sources, transport, and interannual variability of pollution in the Arctic in spring. Model simulation of the aircraft data gives best estimates of CO emissions in April 2008 of 26 Tg month-1 for Asian anthropogenic, 9.1 for European anthropogenic, 4.2 for North American anthropogenic, 9.3 for Russian biomass burning (anomalously large that year), and 21 for Southeast Asian biomass burning. We find that Asian anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of Arctic CO pollution everywhere except in surface air where European anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance. Synoptic pollution influences in the Arctic free troposphere include contributions of comparable magnitude from Russian biomass burning and from North American, European, and Asian anthropogenic sources. European pollution dominates synoptic variability near the surface. Analysis of two pollution events sampled by the aircraft demonstrates that AIRS is capable of observing pollution transport to the Arctic in the mid-troposphere. The 2003-2008 record of CO from AIRS shows that interannual variability averaged over the Arctic cap is very small. AIRS CO columns over Alaska are highly correlated with the Ocean Nino Index, suggesting a link between El Nino and northward pollution transport. AIRS shows lower-than-average CO columns over Alaska during April 2008, despite the Russian fires, due to a weakened Aleutian Low hindering transport from Asia and associated with the moderate 2007-2008 La Nina. This suggests that Asian pollution influence over the Arctic may be particularly large under strong El Nino conditions.

Description: An analysis of the time series of MODIS-based and AERONET aerosol records over Beijing reveals two distinct periods, before and after 2007. The MODIS data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites were processed with the new Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm. A comparison of MAIAC and AERONET AOT shows that whereas MAIAC consistently underestimated peak AOT values by 10-20% in the prior period, the bias mostly disappears after mid-2007. Independent analysis of the AERONET dataset reveals little or no change in the effective radii of the fine and coarse fractions and of the Angstrom exponent. At the same time, it shows an increasing trend in the single scattering albedo, by approx.0.02 in 9 years. As MAIAC was using the same aerosol model for the entire 2000-2010 period, the decrease in AOT bias after 2007 can be explained only by a corresponding decrease of aerosol absorption caused by a reduction in local black carbon emissions. The observed changes correlate in time with the Chinese government's broad measures to improve air quality in Beijing during preparations for the Summer Olympics of 2008.

Description: An analysis of the time series of MODIS-based and AERONET aerosol records over Beijing reveals two distinct periods, before and after 2007. The MODIS data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites were processed with the new Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm. A comparison of MAIAC and AERONET AOT shows that whereas MAIAC consistently underestimated peak AOT values by 10-20% in the prior period, the bias mostly disappears after mid- 2007. Independent analysis of the AERONET dataset reveals little or no change in the effective radii of the fine and coarse fractions and of the Angstrom exponent. At the same time, it shows an increasing trend in the single scattering albedo, by ~0.02 in 9 years. As MAIAC was using the same aerosol model for the entire 2000-2010 period, the decrease in AOT bias after 2007 can be explained only by a corresponding decrease of aerosol absorption caused by a reduction in local black carbon emissions. The observed changes correlate in time with the Chinese government's broad measures to improve air quality in Beijing during preparations for the Summer Olympics of 2008.

Description: Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

Description: The approach to create a comprehensive emission inventory for the time period 1980 to 2000 is described in this paper. We have recently compiled an emission database, which we will use for a 21 year simulation of tropospheric aerosols with the GOCART model. Particular attention was paid to the time-dependent SO2, black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions. For the emission of SO2 from sporadically erupting volcanoes, we assembled emission data from the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, using the VEI to derive the volcanic cloud height and the SO2 amount, and amended this dataset by the SO2 emission data from the TOMS instrument when available. 3-dimensional aircraft emission data was obtained for a number of years from the AEAP project, converted from burned fuel to SO2 and interpolated to each year, taking the sparsity of the flight patterns into account. Other anthopogenic SO2 emissions are based on gridded emissions from the EDGAR 2000 database (excluding sources from aircraft, biomass burning and international ship traffic), which were scaled to individual years with country/regional based emission inventories. Gridded SO2 emissions from international ship traffic for 2000 and the scaling factors for other years are from [Eyring et al., 2005]. We used gridded anthropogenic black and organic carbon emissions for 1996 [Bond et al., 2005], again excluding aircraft, biomass burning and ship sources. These emissions were scaled with regional based emission inventories from 1980 to 2000 to derive gridded emissions for each year. The biomass burning emissions are based on a climatology, which is scaled with regional scaling factors derived from the TOMS aerosol index and the AVHRR/ATSR fire counts to each year [Duncan et al., 2003]. Details on the integration of the information from the various sources will be provided and the distribution patterns and total emissions in the final product will be discussed.