ALBERT

Description: The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) of intermediate complexity has been a useful tool in recent assessments of long-term climate changes, including both paleo-climate modelling and uncertainty assessments of future warming. Since the last official release of the UVic ESCM 2.9 and the two official updates during the last decade, considerable model development has taken place among multiple research groups. The new version 2.10 of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model presented here will be part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). More precisely it will be used in the intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC), such as the C4MIP, the Carbon Dioxide Removal and Zero Emissions Commitment model intercomparison projects (CDR-MIP and ZECMIP, respectively). It now brings together and combines multiple model developments and new components that have come about since the last official release of the model. The main additions to the base model are (i) an improved biogeochemistry module for the ocean, (ii) a vertically resolved soil model including dynamic hydrology and soil carbon processes, and (iii) a representation of permafrost carbon. To set the foundation of its use, we here describe the UVic ESCM 2.10 and evaluate results from transient historical simulations against observational data. We find that the UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. The spatial distribution of many ocean tracers, including temperature, salinity, phosphate and nitrate, also agree well with observed tracer profiles. The good performance in the ocean tracers is connected to an improved representation of ocean physical properties. For the moment, the main biases that remain are a vegetation carbon density that is too high in the tropics, a higher than observed change in the ocean heat content (OHC) and an oxygen utilization in the Southern Ocean that is too low. All of these biases will be addressed in the next updates to the model.

Description: The reason for the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 during the last deglaciation remains unknown. Most recent hypotheses invoke Southern Hemisphere processes such as shifts in midlatitude westerly winds. Coeval changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are poorly quantified, and their relation to the CO2 increase is not understood. Here we compare simulations from a global, coupled climate–biogeochemistry model that includes a detailed representation of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) with a synthesis of high-resolution δ13C reconstructions from deep-sea sediments and ice core data. In response to a prolonged AMOC shutdown initialized from a preindustrial state, modeled δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC) decreases in most of the surface ocean and the subsurface Atlantic, with largest amplitudes (more than 1.5‰) in the intermediate-depth North Atlantic. It increases in the intermediate and abyssal South Atlantic, as well as in the subsurface Southern, Indian, and Pacific oceans. The modeled pattern is similar and highly correlated with the available foraminiferal δ13C reconstructions spanning from the late Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~19.5–18.5 ka BP) to the late Heinrich stadial event 1 (HS1, ~16.5–15.5 ka BP), but the model overestimates δ13CDIC reductions in the North Atlantic. Possible reasons for the model–sediment-data differences are discussed. Changes in remineralized δ13CDIC dominate the total δ13CDIC variations in the model but preformed contributions are not negligible. Simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 and its isotopic composition (δ13CCO2) agree well with ice core data. Modeled effects of AMOC-induced wind changes on the carbon and isotope cycles are small, suggesting that Southern Hemisphere westerly wind effects may have been less important for the global carbon cycle response during HS1 than previously thought. Our results indicate that during the early deglaciation the AMOC decreased for several thousand years. We propose that the observed early deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2 and the decrease in δ13CCO2 may have been dominated by an AMOC-induced decline of the ocean's biologically sequestered carbon storage.

Description: The mechanism for the observed initial rise of atmospheric CO2 during the last deglaciation remains unknown. Most recent hypotheses invoke Southern Hemisphere processes such as shifts in mid-latitude westerly winds. Here we compare simulations from a global, coupled climate-biogeochemistry model including carbon isotopes (δ13C) with a synthesis of high-resolution deep sea δ13C reconstructions as well as ice core data. The reconstructions from Heinrich Stadial Event 1 (HS1, ~ 19–15 ka BP) are constistent with model simulations of a large multi-millennial reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results suggest that the rise in atmospheric CO2 and decrease in its δ13C composition (δ13CO2) observed during the early deglacial may have been caused by an AMOC induced decline of the ocean's biologically sequestered carbon storage without the need to invoke changes in Southern Hemisphere winds.

Description: A major tipping point of Earth's history occurred during the mid-Pliocene: the onset of major Northern-Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) and of pronounced, Quaternary-style cycles of glacial-to-interglacial climates, that contrast with more uniform climates over most of the preceding Cenozoic and continue until today (Zachos et al., 2001). The severe deterioration of climate occurred in three steps between 3.2 Ma (warm MIS K3) and 2.7 Ma (glacial MIS G6/4) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). Various models (sensu Driscoll and Haug, 1998) and paleoceanographic records (intercalibrated using orbital age control) suggest clear linkages between the onset of NHG and the three steps in the final closure of the Central American Seaways (CAS), deduced from rising salinity differences between Caribbean and the East Pacific. Each closing event led to an enhanced North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and this strengthened the poleward transport of salt and heat (warmings of +2–3°C) (Bartoli et al., 2005). Also, the closing resulted in a slight rise in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport to northwestern Eurasia (Lunt et al., 2007), which probably led to an enhanced precipitation and fluvial run-off, lower sea surface salinity (SSS), and an increased sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, hence promoting albedo and the build-up of continental ice sheets. Most important, new evidence shows that the closing of the CAS led to greater steric height of the North Pacific and thus doubled the low-saline Arctic Throughflow from the Bering Strait to the East Greenland Current (EGC). Accordingly, Labrador Sea IODP Site 1307 displays an abrupt but irreversible EGC cooling of 6°C and freshening by ~2 psu from 3.25/3.16–3.00 Ma, right after the first but still reversible attempt of closing the CAS.

Description: A major tipping point of Earth's history occurred during the mid-Pliocene: the onset of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) and pronounced, Quaternary-style cycles of glacial-to-interglacial climates, that contrast with more uniform climates over most of the preceding Cenozoic, that and continue until today. The severe deterioration of climate occurred in three steps between 3.2 Ma (warm MIS K3) and 2.7 Ma (glacial MIS G6/4). Various models and paleoceanographic records (intercalibrated using orbital age control) suggest clear linkages between the onset of NHG and three steps in the final closure of the Central American Seaways (CAS), deduced from rising salinity differences between Caribbean and East Pacific. Each closing event led to enhanced North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and strengthened the poleward transport of salt and heat (warmings of +2–3°C). Also, the closing resulted in a slight rise in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport to northwestern Eurasia, which led to enhanced precipitation and fluvial run-off, lower sea surface salinity (SSS), and increased sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, hence promoting albedo and the build-up of continental ice sheets. Most important, the closing of CAS led to greater steric height of the North Pacific and thus doubled the low-saline Arctic Throughflow from the Bering Strait to the East Greenland Current (EGC). Accordingly, Labrador Sea IODP Site 1307 displays an abrupt but irreversible EGC cooling of 6°C and freshening by ~1 psu from 3.16–3.00 Ma, right after the first but still reversible attempt of closing the CAS.

Description: The dominant source of inter-model differences in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs) are cloud radiative effects on Earth's energy budget. Intermediate complexity models, while able to run more efficiently, often lack cloud feedbacks. Here, we describe and evaluate a method for applying GCM-derived shortwave and longwave cloud feedbacks from 4 × CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum experiments to the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. The method generally captures the spread in top-of-the-atmosphere radiative feedbacks between the original GCMs, which impacts the magnitude and spatial distribution of surface temperature changes and climate sensitivity. These results suggest that the method is suitable to incorporate multi-model cloud feedback uncertainties in ensemble simulations with a single intermediate complexity model.

Description: Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are acidifying the ocean, affecting calcification rates in pelagic organisms and thereby modifying the oceanic alkalinity cycle. However, the responses of pelagic calcifying organisms to acidification vary widely between species, contributing uncertainty to predictions of atmospheric CO2 and the resulting climate change. Meanwhile, ocean warming caused by rising CO2 is expected to drive increased growth rates of all pelagic organisms, including calcifiers. It thus remains unclear whether anthropogenic CO2 will ultimately increase or decrease the globally-integrated pelagic calcification rate. Here, we assess the importance of this uncertainty by introducing a variable dependence of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production on calcite saturation state (ΩCaCO3) in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, an intermediate complexity coupled carbon-climate model. In a series of model simulations, we examine the impact of this parameterization on global ocean carbon cycling under two CO2 emissions scenarios, both integrated to the year 3500. The simulations show a significant sensitivity of the vertical and surface horizontal alkalinity gradients to the parameterization, as well as the removal of alkalinity from the ocean through CaCO3 burial. These sensitivities result in an additional oceanic uptake of carbon when calcification depends on ΩCaCO3 (of up to 13 % of total carbon emissions), compared to the case where calcification is insensitive to acidification. In turn, this response causes a reduction of global surface air temperature of up to 0.4 °C in year 3500, a 13 % reduction in the amplitude of warming. Narrowing these uncertainties will require better understanding of both temperature and acidification effects on pelagic calcifiers. Preliminary examination suggests that alkalinity observations can be used to constrain the range of uncertainties and may exclude large sensitivities of CaCO3 production on ΩCaCO3.

Description: Analysis of observations and sensitivity experiments with a new three-dimensional global model of stable carbon isotope cycling elucidate the processes that control the distribution of δ13C in the contemporary and preindustrial ocean. Biological fractionation dominates the distribution of δ13CDIC of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due to the sinking of isotopically light δ13C organic matter from the surface into the interior ocean. This process leads to low δ13CDIC values at dephs and in high latitude surface waters and high values in the upper ocean at low latitudes with maxima in the subtropics. Air–sea gas exchange provides an important secondary influence due to two effects. First, it acts to reduce the spatial gradients created by biology. Second, the associated temperature dependent fractionation tends to increase (decrease) δ13CDIC values of colder (warmer) water, which generates gradients that oppose those arising from biology. Our model results suggest that both effects are similarly important in influencing surface and interior δ13CDIC distributions. However, air-sea gas exchange is slow, so biological effect dominate spatial δ13CDIC gradients both in the interior and at the surface, in constrast to conclusions from some previous studies. Analysis of a new synthesis of δ13CDIC measurements from years 1990 to 2005 is used to quantify preformed (δ13Cpre) and remineralized (δ13Crem) contributions as well as the effects of biology (Δδ13Cbio) and air–sea gas exchange (δ13C*). The model reproduces major features of the observed large-scale distribution of δ13CDIC, δ13Cpre, δ13Crem, δ13C*, and Δδ13Cbio. Residual misfits are documented and analyzed. Simulated surface and subsurface δ13CDIC are influenced by details of the ecosystem model formulation. For example, inclusion of a simple parameterization of iron limitation of phytoplankton growth rates and temperature-dependent zooplankton grazing rates improves the agreement with δ13CDIC observations and satellite estimates of phytoplankton growth rates and biomass, suggesting that δ13C can also be a useful test of ecosystem models.

Description: The size of the bio-available (i.e. "fixed") nitrogen inventory in the ocean influences global marine productivity and the biological carbon pump. Despite its importance, the pre-industrial rates for the major source and sink terms of the oceanic fixed nitrogen budget, N2 fixation and denitrification, respectively, are not well known. However, these processes leave distinguishable imprints on the ratio of stable nitrogen isotopes, δ15N, which can therefore help to infer their patterns and rates. Here we use δ15N observations from the water column and a new database of seafloor measurements to constrain rates of N2 fixation and denitrification predicted by a global three-dimensional Model of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Isotopes (MOBI). Sensitivity experiments were performed to quantify uncertainties associated with the isotope effect of denitrification in the water column and sediments. They show that the level of nitrate utilization in suboxic zones, that is the balance between nitrate consumption by denitrification and nitrate replenishment by mixing (dilution effect), significantly affects the isotope effect of water column denitrification and thus global mean δ15NO3−. Experiments with lower levels of nitrate utilization within the suboxic zone (i.e. higher residual water column nitrate concentrations, ranging from 20–32 μM) require higher ratios of benthic to water column denitrification (BD:WCD = 0.75–1.4, respectively), to satisfy the global mean NO3− and δ15NO3− constraints in the modern ocean. This suggests that nitrate utilization in suboxic zones play an important role in global nitrogen isotope cycling. Increasing the net fractionation factor for benthic denitrification (ϵBD = 0–4‰) requires even higher ratios of benthic to water column denitrification (BD:WCD = 1.4–3.5, respectively). The model experiments that best reproduce observed seafloor δ15N support the middle to high-end estimates for the net fractionation factor of benthic denitrification (ϵBD = 2–4‰). Assuming a balanced fixed nitrogen budget, we estimate that pre-industrial rates of N2 fixation, water column denitrification, and benthic denitrification were approximately 195–345, 65–75, and 130–270 Tg N yr−1, respectively. Although uncertainties still exist, these results suggest that previous estimates of N2 fixation have been significantly underestimated and the residence time for oceanic fixed nitrogen is between ~ 1500–3000 yr.

Description: The size of the bioavailable (i.e., "fixed") nitrogen inventory in the ocean influences global marine productivity and the biological carbon pump. Despite its importance, the pre-industrial rates for the major source and sink terms of the oceanic fixed nitrogen budget, N2 fixation and denitrification, respectively, are not well known. These processes leave distinguishable imprints on the ratio of stable nitrogen isotopes, δ15N, which can therefore help to infer their patterns and rates. Here we use δ15N observations from the water column and a new database of seafloor measurements to constrain rates of N2 fixation and denitrification predicted by a global three-dimensional Model of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Isotopes (MOBI). Sensitivity experiments were performed to quantify uncertainties associated with the isotope effect of denitrification in the water column and sediments. They show that the level of nitrate utilization in suboxic zones, that is the balance between nitrate consumption by denitrification and nitrate replenishment by circulation and mixing (dilution effect), significantly affects the isotope effect of water column denitrification and thus global mean δ15NO3–. Experiments with lower levels of nitrate utilization within the suboxic zone (i.e., higher residual water column nitrate concentrations, ranging from 20 to 32 μM) require higher ratios of benthic to water column denitrification, BD : WCD = 0.75–1.4, to satisfy the global mean NO3– and δ15NO3– constraints in the modern ocean. This suggests that nitrate utilization in suboxic zones plays an important role in global nitrogen isotope cycling. Increasing the net fractionation factor ϵBD for benthic denitrification (ϵBD = 0–4‰) requires even higher ratios, BD : WCD = 1.4–3.5. The model experiments that best reproduce observed seafloor δ15N support the middle to high-end estimates for the net fractionation factor of benthic denitrification (ϵBD = 2–4‰). Assuming a balanced fixed nitrogen budget, we estimate that pre-industrial rates of N2 fixation, water column denitrification, and benthic denitrification were between 195–350 (225), 65–80 (76), and 130–270 (149) Tg N yr−1, respectively, with our best model estimate (ϵBD = 2‰) in parentheses. Although uncertainties still exist, these results suggest that marine N2 fixation is occurring at much greater rates than previously estimated and the residence time for oceanic fixed nitrogen is between ~ 1500 and 3000 yr.