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  • 1
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    Recent Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl increase due to atmospheric circulation changes (2014)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-11-01
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 2
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    Tropical deep convection and its impact on composition in global and mesoscale models – Part 2: Tracer transport (2010)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2010-08-27
    Description: The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemistry transport, and climate chemistry models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 hours) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to differ between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for the modelling of the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through species such as bromoform, or for the transport of short lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are found to be strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and boundary layer mixing parameterisations of the models. The location of rapid transport into the upper troposphere is similar among the models, and is mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, none of the models indicates significant enhancement in upward transport over western Africa. The mean mixing ratios of an idealised CO like tracer in the upper tropical troposphere are found to be sensitive to the surface CO mixing ratios in the regions with the most active convection, revealing the importance of correctly modelling both the location of convective transport and the geographical pollutant emission patterns.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    Quantifying uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century (2010)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2010-05-06
    Description: Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
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    Modelling the effect of denitrification on polar ozone depletion for Arctic winter 2004/2005 (2011)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-12
    Description: A three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (CTM), SLIMCAT, has been used to quantify the effect of denitrification on ozone loss for the Arctic winter 2004/2005. The simulated HNO3 is found to be highly sensitive to the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) scheme used in the model. Here the standard SLIMCAT full chemistry model, which uses a thermodynamic equilibrium PSC scheme, overpredicts the ozone loss for Arctic winter 2004/2005 due to the overestimation of denitrification and stronger chlorine activation than observed. A model run with a coupled detailed microphysical denitrification scheme, DLAPSE (Denitrification by Lagrangian Particle Sedimentation), is less denitrified than the standard model run and better reproduces the observed HNO3 as measured by Airborne SUbmillimeter Radiometer (ASUR) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments. Overall, denitrification is responsible for a ~30 % enhancement in O3 depletion compared with simulations without denitrification for Arctic winter 2004/2005, which is slightly larger than the inferred impact of denitrification on Arctic ozone loss for previous winters from different CTMs simulations. The overestimated denitrification from standard SLIMCAT simulation causes ~5–10 % more ozone loss at ~17 km compared with the simulation using the DLAPSE PSC scheme for Arctic winter 2004/2005. The calculated partial column ozone loss from SLIMCAT using the DLAPSE scheme is about 130 DU by mid-March 2005, which compares well with the inferred column ozone loss from ozonesondes and satellite data (127±21 DU).
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
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    Interactions of meteoric smoke particles with sulphuric acid in the Earth's stratosphere (2012)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-16
    Description: Nano-sized meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) with iron-magnesium silicate compositions, formed in the upper mesosphere as a result of meteoric ablation, may remove sulphuric acid from the gas-phase above 40 km and may also affect the composition and behaviour of supercooled H2SO4-H2O droplets in the global stratospheric aerosol (Junge) layer. This study describes a time-resolved spectroscopic analysis of the evolution of the ferric (Fe3+) ion originating from amorphous ferrous (Fe2+)-based silicate powders dissolved in varying Wt % sulphuric acid (30–75 %) solutions over a temperature range of 223–295 K. Complete dissolution of the particles was observed under all conditions. The first-order rate coefficient for dissolution decreases at higher Wt % and lower temperature, which is consistent with the increased solution viscosity limiting diffusion of H2SO4 to the particle surfaces. Dissolution under stratospheric conditions should take less than a week, and is much faster than the dissolution of crystalline Fe2+ compounds. The chemistry climate model UMSLIMCAT (based on the UKMO Unified Model) was then used to study the transport of MSPs through the middle atmosphere. A series of model experiments were performed with different uptake coefficients. Setting the concentration of 1.5 nm radius MSPs at 80 km to 3000 cm−3 (based on rocket-borne charged particle measurements), the model matches the reported Wt % Fe values of 0.5–1.0 in Junge layer sulphate particles, and the MSP optical extinction between 40 and 75 km measured by a satellite-borne spectrometer, if the global meteoric input rate is about 20 tonnes per day. The model indicates that an uptake coefficient ≥0.01 is required to account for the observed two orders of magnitude depletion of H2SO4 vapour above 40 km.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
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    Analysis of stratospheric NO2 trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-09-28
    Description: The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E) is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1% decade−1 and −3.6 ± 0.9% decade−1 are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1% decade−1, −4.3 ± 1.4% decade−1, and −3.6 ± 2.2% decade−1, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5% decade−1 trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3 → NO3 + O2 reaction. Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility that a strengthening of the Dobson-Brewer circulation, which reduces the time available for N2O photolysis in the stratosphere, could also contribute to the observed decline in stratospheric NO2 above Jungfraujoch.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 7
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    Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations (2011)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-03-25
    Description: Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly) cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
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    Constraining the N2O5 UV absorption cross section from spectroscopic trace gas measurements in the tropical mid-stratosphere (2014)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-16
    Description: The absorption cross section of N2O5, σN2O5(λ, T), which is known from laboratory measurements with the uncertainty of a factor of 2 (Table 4-2 in (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) JPL-2011; the spread in laboratory data, however, points to an uncertainty in the range of 25 to 30%, Sander et al., 2011), was investigated by balloon-borne observations of the relevant trace gases in the tropical mid-stratosphere. The method relies on the observation of the diurnal variation of NO2 by limb scanning DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy) measurements (Weidner et al., 2005; Kritten et al., 2010), supported by detailed photochemical modelling of NOy (NOx(= NO + NO2) + NO3 + 2N2O5 + ClONO2 + HO2NO2 + BrONO2 + HNO3) photochemistry and a non-linear least square fitting of the model result to the NO2 observations. Simulations are initialised with O3 measured by direct sun observations, the NOy partitioning from MIPAS-B (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding – Balloon-borne version) observations in similar air masses at night-time, and all other relevant species from simulations of the SLIMCAT (Single Layer Isentropic Model of Chemistry And Transport) chemical transport model (CTM). Best agreement between the simulated and observed diurnal increase of NO2 is found if the σN2O5(λ, T) is scaled by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.8 in the UV-C (200–260 nm) and by a factor of 0.9 ± 0.26 in the UV-B/A (260–350 nm), compared to current recommendations. As a consequence, at 30 km altitude, the N2O5 lifetime against photolysis becomes a factor of 0.77 shorter at solar zenith angle (SZA) of 30° than using the recommended σN2O5(λ, T), and stays more or less constant at SZAs of 60°. Our scaled N2O5 photolysis frequency slightly reduces the lifetime (0.2–0.6%) of ozone in the tropical mid- and upper stratosphere, but not to an extent to be important for global ozone.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 9
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    Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects (2011)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-01
    Description: Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to the 1960s.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 10
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    Results from a new linear O3 scheme with embedded heterogeneous chemistry compared with the parent full-chemistry 3-D CTM (2011)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2011-02-14
    Description: A detailed full-chemistry 3-D chemistry and transport model (CTM) is used to evaluate the current stratospheric O3 parameterisation in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and to obtain an alternative version of the ozone scheme implicitly including heterogeneous chemistry. The approach avoids the inaccurate treatment currently given to heterogeneous ozone chemistry in the ECMWF model, as well as the uncertainties of a cold-tracer. The new O3 scheme (COPCAT) is evaluated within the same CTM used to calculate it. It is the first time such a comparison has been possible, providing direct information on the validity of the linear parameterisation approach for stratospheric ozone. Simulated total column and O3 profiles are compared against Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations. COPCAT successfully simulates polar loss and reproduces a realistic Antarctic O3 hole. The new scheme is comparable to the full-chemistry in many regions for multiannual runs. The parameterisation produces less ozone over the tropics around 10 hPa, compared to full-chemistry and observations. However, this problem can be ameliorated by choosing a different ozone climatology for the scheme. The new scheme is compared to the current ECMWF scheme in the same CTM runs. The Antarctic O3 hole with the current ECMWF scheme is weaker and disappears earlier than with the new COPCAT scheme. Differences between the current ECMWF scheme and COPCAT are difficult to explain due to the different approach used for heterogeneous chemistry and differences in the photochemical models used to calculate the scheme coefficients. Results with the new COPCAT scheme presented here show that heterogeneous and homogeneous ozone chemistry can be included in a consistent way in a linear ozone parameterisation, without any additional tunable parameters, providing a parameterisation scheme in better agreement with the current knowledge of stratospheric O3 chemistry than previous approaches.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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