ALBERT

Description: The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemistry transport, and climate chemistry models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 hours) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to differ between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for the modelling of the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through species such as bromoform, or for the transport of short lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are found to be strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and boundary layer mixing parameterisations of the models. The location of rapid transport into the upper troposphere is similar among the models, and is mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, none of the models indicates significant enhancement in upward transport over western Africa. The mean mixing ratios of an idealised CO like tracer in the upper tropical troposphere are found to be sensitive to the surface CO mixing ratios in the regions with the most active convection, revealing the importance of correctly modelling both the location of convective transport and the geographical pollutant emission patterns.

Description: The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a high global resolution (N216, ~0.83° × ~0.56°, ~60 km) to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km) is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

Description: We examine the effects of ozone precursor emissions from megacities on present-day air quality using the global chemistry–climate model UM-UKCA (UK Met Office Unified Model coupled to the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model). The sensitivity of megacity and regional ozone to local emissions, both from within the megacity and from surrounding regions, is important for determining air quality across many scales, which in turn is key for reducing human exposure to high levels of pollutants. We use two methods, perturbation and tagging, to quantify the impact of megacity emissions on global ozone. We also completely redistribute the anthropogenic emissions from megacities, to compare changes in local air quality going from centralised, densely populated megacities to decentralised, lower density urban areas. Focus is placed not only on how changes to megacity emissions affect regional and global NOx and O3, but also on changes to NOy deposition and to local chemical environments which are perturbed by the emission changes. The perturbation and tagging methods show broadly similar megacity impacts on total ozone, with the perturbation method underestimating the contribution partially because it perturbs the background chemical environment. The total redistribution of megacity emissions locally shifts the chemical environment towards more NOx-limited conditions in the megacities, which is more conducive to ozone production, and monthly mean surface ozone is found to increase up to 30% in megacities, depending on latitude and season. However, the displacement of emissions has little effect on the global annual ozone burden (0.12% change). Globally, megacity emissions are shown to contribute ~3% of total NOy deposition. The changes in O3, NOx and NOy deposition described here are useful for quantifying megacity impacts and for understanding the sensitivity of megacity regions to local emissions. The small global effects of the 100% redistribution carried out in this study suggest that the distribution of emissions on the local scale is unlikely to have large implications for chemistry–climate processes on the global scale.

Description: Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly) cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

Description: The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP), chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h) within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF). The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

Description: The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km) to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km) is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

Description: We introduce a methodology to visualise rapid vertical and zonal tropical transport pathways. Using prescribed sea-surface temperatures in four monthly model integrations for 2005, we characterise preferred transport routes from the troposphere to the stratosphere in a high resolution climate model. Most efficient transport is modelled over the Maritime Continent (MC) in November and February, i.e., boreal winter. In these months, the ascending branch of the Walker Circulation over the MC is formed in conjunction with strong deep convection, allowing fast transport into the stratosphere. In the model the upper tropospheric zonal winds associated with the Walker Circulation are also greatest in these months in agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We conclude that the Walker circulation plays an important role in the seasonality of fast tropical transport from the lower and middle troposphere to the upper troposphere and so impacts at the same time the potential supply of surface emissions to the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and subsequently to the stratosphere.

Description: The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

Description: We introduce a methodology to visualise rapid vertical and zonal tropical transport pathways. Using prescribed sea-surface temperatures in four monthly model integrations for 2005, preferred transport routes from the troposphere to the stratosphere are found in the model over the Maritime Continent (MC) in November and February, i.e., boreal winter. In these months, the ascending branch of the Walker Circulation over the MC is formed in conjunction with strong deep convection, allowing fast transport into the stratosphere. At the same time, the downwelling branch of the Walker Circulation is enhanced over the East Pacific, compared to other months in 2005, reducing locally the upward transport from emissions below. We conclude that the Walker circulation plays an important role in the seasonality of fast tropical transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere and so impacts at the same time the potential supply of surface emissions.

Description: The continuing growth of the world's urban population has led to an increasing number of cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The higher emissions of pollutants, coupled to higher population density, makes predictions of air quality in these megacities of particular importance from both a science and a policy perspective. Global climate models are typically run at coarse resolution to enable both the efficient running of long time integrations, and the ability to run multiple future climate scenarios. However, when considering surface ozone concentrations at the local scale, coarse resolution can lead to inaccuracies arising from the highly non-linear ozone chemistry and the sensitivity of ozone to the distribution of its precursors on smaller scales. In this study, we use UM-UKCA, a global atmospheric chemistry model, coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model, to investigate the impact of model resolution on tropospheric ozone, ranging from global to local scales. We focus on the model's ability to represent the probability of high ozone concentrations in the summer and low ozone concentrations, associated with polluted megacity environments, in the winter, and how this varies with horizontal resolution. We perform time-slice integrations with two model configurations at typical climate resolution (CR, ~150 km) and at a higher resolution (HR, ~40 km). The CR configuration leads to overestimation of ozone concentrations on both regional and local scales, while it gives broadly similar results to the HR configuration on the global scale. The HR configuration is found to produce a more realistic diurnal cycle of ozone concentrations and to give a better representation of the probability density function of ozone values in urban areas such as the megacities of London and Paris. We discuss the possible causes for the observed difference in model behaviour between CR and HR configurations and estimate the relative contribution of chemical and meteorological factors at the different scales.