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  • 1
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    10 Must-Knows aus der Biodiversitätsforschung 2022 (2022)
    Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-12
    Description: In den 10 Must-Knows aus der Biodiversitätsforschung legen 45 Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler fundiert und allgemein verständlich Fakten zur biologischen Vielfalt dar. Sie analysieren die komplexen Systeme der Erde, indem sie zehn Schlüsselbereiche hervorheben, von denen wiederum jeder untrennbar mit allen anderen verbunden ist. Sie zeigen Wege auf, um einen weiteren Verlust an Artenvielfalt und Ökosystemen zu stoppen und die biologische Vielfalt zu fördern. Ihr Ziel ist, für Politik und Gesellschaft wissenschaftlich gesicherte Bewertungen der aktuellen Erkenntnisse für bessere politische Entscheidungen und Maßnahmen auf lokaler, regionaler, nationaler und globaler Ebene zur Verfügung zu stellen, um die Vielfalt des Lebens – die Biodiversität – zu erhalten. Dies sind die 10MustKnows 2022: 1. Klima- und Biodiversitätsschutz zusammen verwirklichen 2. Planetare Gesundheit stärken 3. Unsichtbare Biodiversität beachten 4. Biokulturelle Lebensräume fördern 5. Wald nachhaltig nutzen 6. Landwirtschaft umbauen 7. Land und Ressourcen schützen 8. Transnationale Infrastrukturen und Bildung für Nachhaltigkeit 9. Zugang und offene Nutzung von Forschungsdaten sichern 10. Biodiversitätsfreundliche Anreize setzen
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 2022 (2022)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-12
    Description: In the 10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 45 scientists present facts about biodiversity in a well-founded and generally intelligible way. They analyse the complex systems of the earth by highlighting ten key areas, each of which, in turn, is inextricably linked to all the others. And they show ways to stop the continued loss of species diversity and ecosystems, and to promote biodiversity. The underlying aim is to provide policy-makers and society with scientifically validated assessments of the latest knowledge to facilitate improved policy decisions and action at local, regional, national and global levels, in order to conserve the diversity of life – biodiversity. These are the 10MustKnows 2022: 1. Achieving climate and biodiversity protection together 2. Strengthening planetary health 3. Considering hidden biodiversity 4. Promoting biocultural habitats 5. Using forests sustainably 6. Transforming agriculture 7. Protecting land and resources 8. Expanding transnational infrastructure and education for sustainability 9. Ensuring access and open use of research data 10. Setting biodiversity-friendly incentives
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 3
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    Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy (2021)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.
    Description: Published
    Description: SE220
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    High-Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and its Relevance: a Case Study in Italy (2021)
    SSA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-08
    Description: The spatial variability of the magnitude-frequency distribution is important to improve earthquake forecasting capabilities at different time scales. Here, we develop a novel approach, based on the weighted maximum likelihood estimation, to build a spatial model for the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law and its uncertainty, also for earthquake catalogs with a time-varying completeness magnitude. Then, we also provide a guideline based on the Bayes factor to measure the importance of the b-value spatial variability with respect to a model having a spatially uniform b-value. Finally, we apply the procedure to a new Italian instrumental earthquake catalog from 1960 to 2019 to investigate the b-value spatial variability over the Italian territory.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3778–3784
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e "precursori"
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting (2021)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-, and post-eruptive processes. These uncertainties can be differentiated into three fundamental types: (1) the natural variability of volcanic systems, usually represented as stochastic processes with parameterized distributions (aleatory variability); (2) the uncertainty in our knowledge of how volcanic systems operate and evolve, often represented as subjective probabilities based on expert opinion (epistemic uncertainty); and (3) the possibility that our forecasts are wrong owing to behaviors of volcanic processes about which we are completely ignorant and, hence, cannot quantify in terms of probabilities (ontological error). Here we put forward a probabilistic framework for hazard analysis recently proposed by Marzocchi and Jordan (2014), which unifies the treatment of all three types of uncertainty. Within this framework, an eruption forecasting or a volcanic hazard model is said to be complete only if it (a) fully characterizes the epistemic uncertainties in the model's representation of aleatory variability and (b) can be unconditionally tested (in principle) against observations to identify ontological errors. Unconditional testability, which is the key to model validation, hinges on an experimental concept that characterizes hazard events in terms of exchangeable data sequences with well-defined frequencies. We illustrate the application of this unified probabilistic framework by describing experimental concepts for the forecasting of tephra fall from Campi Flegrei. Eventually, this example may serve as a guide for the application of the same probabilistic framework to other natural hazards.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3509–3517
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Global Volume Distribution for Subaerial Volcanism on Earth (2022)
    Wiley-AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-11
    Description: Knowledge of the global distribution of Earth volcanism is critical in many fields of the Geosciences involving large-scale assessments, such as plate tectonics, global volcanic hazards, and climate change. Recent analysis has revealed that global eruption inter-event times are exponentially distributed, implying that on the global scale volcanic eruptions are Poisson distributed. Here, we employ those findings to calibrate a continuous frequency-volume distribution for subaerial eruptions of any size on Earth from small lava flows to super-eruptions. Obtaining such a continuous global distribution implies considering the existing data and the way they are collected and categorized into databases, as well as extending the available eruption volume data to eruption VEI classes less than 4. The continuous global distribution shows an initial log-normal section up to volumes of about 170 Mm3, followed by a power-law section, tapered on its extreme right-end side, encompassing about five orders of magnitude of eruption volumes. The potential implications are discussed in terms of short-term eruption forecasts of the size of an impending eruption, critical for volcanic emergency management.
    Description: Published
    Description: e2021JB021763
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Comparison of physical to numerical mixing with different tracer advection schemes in estuarine environments (2020)
    MDPI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kalra, T. S., Li, X., Warner, J. C., Geyer, W. R., & Wu, H. Comparison of physical to numerical mixing with different tracer advection schemes in estuarine environments. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7(10), (2019): 338, doi: 10.3390/jmse7100338.
    Description: The numerical simulation of estuarine dynamics requires accurate prediction for the transport of tracers, such as temperature and salinity. During the simulation of these processes, all the numerical models introduce two kinds of tracer mixing: (1) by parameterizing the tracer eddy diffusivity through turbulence models leading to a source of physical mixing and (2) discretization of the tracer advection term that leads to numerical mixing. Physical and numerical mixing both vary with the choice of horizontal advection schemes, grid resolution, and time step. By simulating four idealized cases, this study compares the physical and numerical mixing for three different tracer advection schemes. Idealized domains only involving physical and numerical mixing are used to verify the implementation of mixing terms by equating them to total tracer variance. Among the three horizontal advection schemes, the scheme that causes the least numerical mixing while maintaining a sharp front also results in larger physical mixing. Instantaneous spatial comparison of mixing components shows that physical mixing is dominant in regions of large vertical gradients, while numerical mixing dominates at sharp fronts that contain large horizontal tracer gradients. In the case of estuaries, numerical mixing might locally dominate over physical mixing; however, the amount of volume integrated numerical mixing through the domain compared to integrated physical mixing remains relatively small for this particular modeling system.
    Description: This study was funded through the Coastal Model Applications and Field Measurements Project and the Cross-shore and Inlets Project, US Geological Survey Coastal Marine Hazards and Resources Program.
    Keywords: Physical mixing ; Numerical mixing ; Advection schemes ; Estuarine mixing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Shoaling wave shape estimates from field observations and derived bedload sediment rates (2022)
    MDPI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kalra, T. S., Suttles, S. E., Sherwood, C. R., Warner, J. C., Aretxabaleta, A. L., & Leavitt, G. R. Shoaling wave shape estimates from field observations and derived bedload sediment rates. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 10(2), (2022): 223, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10020223.
    Description: he shoaling transformation from generally linear deep-water waves to asymmetric shallow-water waves modifies wave shapes and causes near-bed orbital velocities to become asymmetrical, contributing to net sediment transport. In this work, we used two methods to estimate the asymmetric wave shape from data at three sites. The first method converted wave measurements made at the surface to idealized near-bottom wave-orbital velocities using a set of empirical equations: the “parameterized” waveforms. The second method involved direct measurements of velocities and pressure made near the seabed: the “direct” waveforms. Estimates from the two methods were well correlated at all three sites (Pearson’s correlation coefficient greater than 0.85). Both methods were used to drive bedload-transport calculations that accounted for asymmetric waves, and the results were compared with a traditional excess-stress formulation and field estimates of bedload transport derived from ripple migration rates based on sonar imagery. The cumulative bedload transport from the parameterized waveform was 25% greater than the direct waveform, mainly because the parameterized waveform did not account for negative skewness. Calculated transport rates were comparable to rates estimated from ripple migration except during the largest event, when calculated rates were as much as 100 times greater, which occurred during high period waves.
    Description: USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program.
    Keywords: Asymmetric waveform ; Wave shape parameterization ; Sediment transport
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    Modeling the morphodynamics of coastal responses to extreme events: what shape are we in? (2022)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Sherwood, C. R., van Dongeren, A., Doyle, J., Hegermiller, C. A., Hsu, T.-J., Kalra, T. S., Olabarrieta, M., Penko, A. M., Rafati, Y., Roelvink, D., van der Lugt, M., Veeramony, J., & Warner, J. C. Modeling the morphodynamics of coastal responses to extreme events: what shape are we in? Annual Review of Marine Science, 14, (2022): 457–492, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-032221-090215.
    Description: This review focuses on recent advances in process-based numerical models of the impact of extreme storms on sandy coasts. Driven by larger-scale models of meteorology and hydrodynamics, these models simulate morphodynamics across the Sallenger storm-impact scale, including swash,collision, overwash, and inundation. Models are becoming both wider (as more processes are added) and deeper (as detailed physics replaces earlier parameterizations). Algorithms for wave-induced flows and sediment transport under shoaling waves are among the recent developments. Community and open-source models have become the norm. Observations of initial conditions (topography, land cover, and sediment characteristics) have become more detailed, and improvements in tropical cyclone and wave models provide forcing (winds, waves, surge, and upland flow) that is better resolved and more accurate, yielding commensurate improvements in model skill. We foresee that future storm-impact models will increasingly resolve individual waves, apply data assimilation, and be used in ensemble modeling modes to predict uncertainties.
    Description: All authors except D.R. were partially supported by the IFMSIP project, funded by US Office of Naval Research grant PE 0601153N under contracts N00014-17-1-2459 (Deltares), N00014-18-1-2785 (University of Delaware), N0001419WX00733 (US Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey), N0001418WX01447 (US Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center), and N0001418IP00016 (US Geological Survey). C.R.S., C.A.H., T.S.K., and J.C.W. were supported by the US Geological Survey Coastal/Marine Hazards and Resources Program. A.v.D. and M.v.d.L. were supported by the Deltares Strategic Research project Quantifying Flood Hazards and Impacts. M.O. acknowledges support from National Science Foundation project OCE-1554892.
    Keywords: Coastal morphodynamics ; Extreme storms ; Coastal modeling ; Sandy coasts ; Waves ; Sediment transport
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    Modeling of barrier breaching during hurricanes Sandy and Matthew (2022)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Hegermiller, C. A., Warner, J. C., Olabarrieta, M., Sherwood, C. R., & Kalra, T. S. Modeling of barrier breaching during hurricanes Sandy and Matthew. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 127(3), (2022): e2021JF006307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006307.
    Description: Physical processes driving barrier island change during storms are important to understand to mitigate coastal hazards and to evaluate conceptual models for barrier evolution. Spatial variations in barrier island topography, landcover characteristics, and nearshore and back-barrier hydrodynamics can yield complex morphological change that requires models of increasing resolution and physical complexity to predict. Using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, we investigated two barrier island breaches that occurred on Fire Island, NY during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and at Matanzas, FL during Hurricane Matthew (2016). The model employed a recently implemented infragravity (IG) wave driver to represent the important effects of IG waves on nearshore water levels and sediment transport. The model simulated breaching and other changes with good skill at both locations, resolving differences in the processes and evolution. The breach simulated at Fire Island was 250 m west of the observed breach, whereas the breach simulated at Matanzas was within 100 m of the observed breach. Implementation of the vegetation module of COAWST to allow three-dimensional drag over dune vegetation at Fire Island improved model skill by decreasing flows across the back-barrier, as opposed to varying bottom roughness that did not positively alter model response. Analysis of breach processes at Matanzas indicated that both far-field and local hydrodynamics influenced breach creation and evolution, including remotely generated waves and surge, but also surge propagation through back-barrier waterways. This work underscores the importance of resolving the complexity of nearshore and back-barrier systems when predicting barrier island change during extreme events.
    Description: C. A. Hegermiller is grateful to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program for support. This project was supported by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program and the Office of Naval Research, Increasing the Fidelity of Morphological Storm Impact Predictions Project. M. Olabarrieta acknowledges support from the NSF project OCE-1554892.
    Description: 2022-07-26
    Keywords: Breach ; Barrier island ; Hurricane
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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