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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Given limited scientific agreement on approaches and methodologies, estimates of climate-change adaptation costs vary widely. Here, we present a meta-analysis of aggregate adaptation costs in developing countries, across three roughly homogeneous groups of estimates, i.e. national plan-based, bottom-up science-based, and global top-down estimates. We show that the level of global warming, a country's economic status, and methodology applied, are the main determinants for the estimated costs of adaptation. Not surprisingly, adaptation costs are much higher at high levels of global warming by 2050 and 2100, diverging from low levels of warming from the 2030s. Consequently, strong global mitigation action could reduce the adaptation costs by three quarters by 2100. Next, adaptation costs are higher for high-income countries in absolute dollar value, but costs are higher relative to gross domestic product for low-income countries. The integrated assessment model based estimates are at the higher end of the range at the global scale, but the estimates based on the sectoral impacts aggregation approach are higher in case of bottom-up estimates. Regardless of the methodology applied, current climate finance pledges of USD100 billion by 2020 - for both mitigation and adaptation - would fall far short of estimated global adaptation costs.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-05
    Description: The classic partitioning between slow-moving, low-wavenumber planetary waves and fast-moving, high-wavenumber synoptic waves is systematically extended by means of a wavenumber/phase speed spectral decomposition to characterize the day-to-day evolution of Rossby wave activity in the upper troposphere. This technique is employed to study the origin and the propagation of circumglobal Rossby wave patterns (CRWPs), amplified Rossby waves stretching across the Northern Hemisphere in the zonal direction and characterized by few, dominant wavenumbers. Principal component analysis of daily anomalies in spectral power allows for two CRWPs to emerge as dominant variability modes in the spectral domain during boreal winter. These modes correspond to the baroclinic propagation of amplified Rossby waves from the Pacific to the Atlantic storm track in a hemispheric flow configuration displaying enhanced meridional gradients of geopotential height over midlatitudes. The first CRWP is forced by tropical convection anomalies over the Indian Ocean and features the propagation of amplified Rossby wave packets over northern midlatitudes, while the second one propagates rapidly over latitudes between 35° N and 55° N and appears to have extratropical origin. Propagation of Rossby waves from the Atlantic eddy-driven jet to the African subtropical jet occurs for both CRWPs following anticyclonic wave breaking.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-07-13
    Description: Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-11-10
    Description: Il giorno 9 Novembre 2022, alle 06:07:24 UTC (07:07:24 ora locale) un terremoto di magnitudo momento (MW) pari a 5.5 ha interessato la Costa Marchigiana Pesarese (Pesaro Urbino). A causa della magnitudo del mainshock e del livello di danneggiamento riscontrato, l’INGV ha attivato il gruppo operativo EMERSITO (http://emersitoweb.rm.ingv.it/index.php/it/), il cui obiettivo è di svolgere e coordinare le campagne di monitoraggio per studi di effetti di sito e di microzonazione sismica. Durante le prime fasi di un’emergenza sismica, l’attività principale del gruppo operativo EMERSITO consiste, attraverso la costituzione di gruppi di lavoro, nel reperimento delle informazioni geologiche e geofisiche, nell’analisi dei dati sismici esistenti, nella pianificazione di misure sismologiche e geofisiche ed in attività propedeutiche alla microzonazione sismica. Nel caso specifico della sequenza sismica della Costa Marchigiana Pesarese: - sono state reperite informazioni di letteratura sugli effetti di sito già osservati nella zona colpita, sulla cartografia geologica e sulla microzonazione sismica disponibile; - sono state reperite le informazioni di caratterizzazione dei siti delle stazioni sismiche permanenti presenti nell’area (http://itaca.mi.ingv.it/ItacaNet_31 e http://crisp.ingv.it) e sono stati rianalizzati alcuni dati disponibili (http://eida.ingv.it/). - è stata pianificata l’installazione di una rete sismica temporanea nella zona colpita dal terremoto, nei comuni di Ancona e Senigallia. La scelta delle aree è stata guidata principalmente dalla prossimità con l’area epicentrale, dalla disponibilità di studi di microzonazione sismica e di carte geologiche a differenti scale di rappresentazione, dalla distribuzione dei parametri di scuotimento del suolo e della sismicità in tempo reale.
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.
    Description: Published
    Description: SE220
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: This contribution illustrates the state of the art on the development of the multiparametric network in Sicily in the last three years. This region is wellknown for the strong earthquakes (M〉6.5) which struck in historic time. However, the coverage of the seismic network developed in the last decades was not fully optimized to the need of the seismic surveillance. Since 2017, the group belonging to the National Earthquake Observatory (ONT) which operates in Sicily launched a developing plan of the preexisting seismic network in the framework of the project FISR “Sale Operative Integrate e Reti di Monitoraggio del futuro: l’INGV 2.0 (S.O.I.R.)”. Such update will end by the next years thanks to the project “GRINT Italian Research Infrastructure for Geosciences” in the framework of the “Programma Operativo Nazionale” (PON) of the Italian Ministry for the University and Research. This plan envisages both the upgrade of monitoring systems in the already existing nodes, and the integration of new nodes. The main objective is to build a multiparametric network which integrates the main seismic network, with the monitoring of other geophysical signals through the implementation of other sensors: accelerometers, geodetic GPS, radon detectors, and corner reflectors. We also illustrate the plan for the realization of a redundant network which could support the tasks of the main infrastructure in case of failure of the latter. Finally, we present some experimental urbanscale networks which in the future could support the main infrastructure.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-40
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Rete Sismica Nazionale ; Rete multiparametrica ; Sicilia ; National Seismic Network ; Multiparametric network; ; Sicily
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-12-13
    Description: Da venerdì 4 novembre a domenica 6 novembre 2022, si è tenuta una esercitazione nazionale denominata “Exe Sisma dello Stretto 2022” in un'area del territorio della Regione Calabria e della Regione Sicilia caratterizzata da una elevatissima pericolosità sismica. L’esercitazione è stata indetta e coordinata dal Dipartimento della Protezione Civile e aveva l’obiettivo di verificare la risposta operativa a un evento sismico significativo del Servizio Nazionale della Protezione Civile, di cui anche l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia fa parte. Durante le tre giornate, l’INGV ha avuto modo di testare tutte le procedure che l’Istituto ha codificato a partire da quelle del “Protocollo di Ente per le emergenze sismiche e da maremoto”. Dopo che INGV ha dato l’avvio all’intera esercitazione simulando il terremoto di magnitudo MW 6.2 (ML 6.0) alle ore 09:00 UTC in provincia di Reggio Calabria (5 km a SW dal comune di Laganadi), e ha, quindi, inviato il messaggio per il potenziale maremoto con un livello di allerta arancione; inoltre, il Presidente INGV ha prontamente convocato l’Unità di Crisi e attivato tutti Gruppi Operativi. Questi ultimi, nell’ambito dello scenario esercitativo, hanno verificato che i flussi di comunicazione interna e tutte le attività necessarie in emergenza sismica, presenti nei relativi protocolli operativi, risultassero rispettati. L’obiettivo primario dell’esercitazione è stato quindi quello di validare le attività previste e di aggiornare il personale afferente ai Gruppi Operativi stessi. Tra di essi, SISMIKO, che rappresenta il GO dedicato al coordinamento delle reti sismiche mobili INGV in emergenza, nelle settimane precedenti l’esercitazione ha predisposto tutte le attività che intendeva testare, descrivendole brevemente nel Documento d’impianto INGV e con maggior dettaglio in quello del Gruppo Operativo. A pochi giorni dalla chiusura dell’esercitazione, un terremoto di magnitudo ML 5.7 (MW 5.5) registrato alle ore 06:07 UTC del 09 novembre 2022 ha spostato l’attenzione dalla simulazione alla realtà.
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
    Description: Published
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: SISMIKO ; Esercitazione ; Exercise ; Rischio Sismico Seismic risk ; Seismic risk ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Duvalo “volcano” is a site of anomalous geogenic degassing close to Ohrid (North Macedonia) not related to volcanic activity, despite its name. CO2 flux measurements made with the accumulation chamber (321 sites over ∼50,000 m2) showed fluxes up to nearly 60,000 g m−2 d−1, sustaining a total output of ∼67 t d−1. Soil gas samples were taken at 50 cm depth from sites with high CO2 fluxes and analyzed for their chemical and isotope composition. The gas is mainly composed by CO2 (〉90%) with significant concentrations of H2S (up to 0.55%) and CH4 (up to 0.32%). The isotope compositions of He (R/RA 0.10) and of CO2 (δ13C ∼ 0‰) exclude significant mantle contribution, while δ13C-CH4 (∼−35‰) and δ2H-CH4 (∼−170‰) suggest a thermogenic origin for CH4. The area is characterized by intense seismic activity and Duvalo corresponds to an active tectonic structure bordering the Ohrid graben. The production of H2S within the stratigraphic sequence may be explained by thermochemical reduction of sulfate. The uprising H2S is partially oxidized to sulfuric acid that, reacting with carbonate rocks, releases CO2. The tectonic structure of the area favors fluid circulation, sustaining H2S production and oxidation, CO2 production and allowing the escape of the gases to the atmosphere. In the end, Duvalo represents a tectonic-related CO2 degassing area whose gases originate mostly, if not exclusively, in the shallowest part of the crust (〈10 km). This finding highlights that even systems with trivial mantle contribution may sustain intense CO2 degassing (〉1,000 t km−2 d−1).
    Description: Published
    Description: e2021GC010198
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Geogenic degassing ; CO2 fluxes ; 04. Solid Earth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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