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  • 2020-2023  (229)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
    Description: European Union Horizon 2020
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Lithium has limited biological activity and can readily replace aluminium, magnesium and iron ions in aluminosilicates, making it a proxy for the inorganic silicate cycle and its potential link to the carbon cycle. Data from the North Pacific Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean and Red Sea suggest that salinity normalized dissolved lithium concentrations vary by up to 2%–3% in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean. The highest lithium concentrations were measured in surface waters of remote North Pacific and Indian Ocean stations that receive relatively high fluxes of dust. The lowest dissolved lithium concentrations were measured just below the surface mixed layer of the stations with highest surface water concentrations, consistent with removal into freshly forming aluminium rich phases and manganese oxides. In the North Pacific, water from depths 〉2,000 m is slightly depleted in lithium compared to the initial composition of Antarctic Bottom Water, likely due to uptake of lithium by authigenically forming aluminosilicates. The results of this study suggest that the residence time of lithium in the ocean may be significantly shorter than calculated from riverine and hydrothermal fluxes.
    Description: Key Points: Li/Na ratios vary by up to 2%–3% in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Authigenic formation of aluminosilicates slightly deplete deep‐water lithium concentrations in the North Pacific. The residence time of lithium in the ocean is 240,000 ± 70,000 years, based on removal from North Pacific deep‐water.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: MoES, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004814
    Description: National Science Foundation USA
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.941888
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-08-23
    Description: The tightened climate mitigation targets of the EU green deal raise an important question: Which strategy should be used to achieve carbon emissions net neutrality? This study explores stakeholder-designed narratives of the future energy system development within the deep decarbonization context. European carbon net-neutrality goals are put under test in a model comparison exercise using state of the art Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) models: ETM-UCL, PRIMES and REMIND. Results show that while achieving the transition to carbon neutrality by mid-century is feasible under quite different future energy systems, some robust commonalities emerge. Electrification of end use sectors combined with large-scale expansion of renewable energy is a no-regret decision for all strategies; Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) plays an important role for achieving net-neutral targets under all scenarios, but is most relevant when demand-side changes are limited; hydrogen and synthetic fuels can be a relevant mitigation option for mid-century mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors; energy efficiency can reduce the supply system strain. Finally, high carbon prices (300–900€/tCO2) are needed under all strategies in order to achieve carbon net neutrality in 2050.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-09-29
    Description: The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-04-04
    Description: Observations in polar regions show that sea ice deformations are often narrow linear features. These long bands of deformations are referred to as Linear Kinematic Features (LKFs). Viscous‐plastic sea ice models have the capability to simulate LKFs and more generally sea ice deformations. Moreover, viscous‐plastic models simulate a larger number and more refined LKFs as the spatial resolution is increased. Besides grid spacing, other aspects of a numerical implementation, such as the placement of velocities and the associated degrees of freedom, may impact the formation of simulated LKFs. To explore these effects this study compares numerical solutions of sea ice models with different velocity staggering in a benchmark problem. Discretizations based on A‐,B‐, and C‐grid systems on quadrilateral meshes have similar resolution properties as an approximation with an A‐grid staggering on triangular grids (with the same total number of vertices). CD‐grid approximations with a given grid spacing have properties, specifically the number and length of simulated LKFs, that are qualitatively similar to approximations on conventional Arakawa A‐grid, B‐grid, and C‐grid approaches with half the grid spacing or less, making the CD‐discretization more efficient with respect to grid resolution. One reason for this behavior is the fact that the CD‐grid approach has a higher number of degrees of freedom to discretize the velocity field. The higher effective resolution of the CD‐discretization makes it an attractive alternative to conventional discretizations.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans plays an important role in the exchange of heat and freshwater between the atmosphere and the ocean and hence in the climate in general. Satellite observations of polar regions show that the ice drift sometimes produces long features that are either cracks (leads) and zones of thicker sea ice (pressure ridges). This phenomenon is called deformation. It is mathematically described by the non‐uniform way in which the ice moves. For numerical models of sea ice motion it is difficult to represent this deformation accurately. Details of the numerics may affect the way these models simulate leads and ridges, their number and length. Specifically, we find by comparing different numerical models, that the way the model variables are ordered on a computational grid to solve the mathematical equations of sea ice motion has an effect of how many deformation features can be represented on a grid with a given spacing between grid points. A new discretization (ordering of model variables) turns out to resolve more details of the approximated field than traditional methods.
    Description: Key Points: The placement of the sea ice velocity has a mayor influence on the number of simulated linear kinematic features (LKFs). The CD‐grid resolves twice as many LKFs compared to A, B, C‐grids. A, B, C‐grids on quadrilateral meshes resolve a similar number of LKFs as A‐grids on triangular meshes (with the same total number of nodes).
    Keywords: ddc:550 ; ddc:551.343
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-04-07
    Description: Hydrogen isotope ratios of sedimentary leaf waxes (δ2HWax values) are increasingly used to reconstruct past hydroclimate. Here, we add δ2HWax values from 19 lakes and four swamps on 15 tropical Pacific islands to an updated global compilation of published data from surface sediments and soils. Globally, there is a strong positive linear correlation between δ2H values of mean annual precipitation (δ2HP values) and the leaf waxes n‐C29‐alkane (R2 = 0.74, n = 665) and n‐C28‐acid (R2 = 0.74, n = 242). Tropical Pacific δ2HWax values fall within the predicted range of values based on the global calibration, and the largest residuals from the global regression line are no greater than those observed elsewhere, despite large uncertainties in δ2HP values at some Pacific sites. However, tropical Pacific δ2HWax values in isolation are not correlated with estimated δ2HP values from isoscapes or from isotope‐enabled general circulation models. Palynological analyses from these same Pacific sediment samples suggest no systematic relationship between any particular type of pollen distribution and deviations from the global calibration line. Rather, the poor correlations observed in the tropical Pacific are likely a function of the small range of δ2HP values relative to the typical residuals around the global calibration line. Our results suggest that δ2HWax values are currently most suitable for use in detecting large changes in precipitation in the tropical Pacific and elsewhere, but that ample room for improving this threshold exits in both improved understanding of δ2H variability in plants, as well as in precipitation.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Past precipitation patterns are difficult to reconstruct, limiting our ability to understand Earth’s climate system. Geochemists reconstruct past precipitation by measuring the amount of heavy hydrogen naturally incorporated into the waxy coating of leaves, which is preserved in mud that accumulates in lakes, soils, and oceans. Heavy hydrogen in leaf waxes is strongly correlated with local precipitation, allowing us to learn about rainfall intensity, temperature, and cloud movement. However, no existing calibration studies include sites from the tropical Pacific, home to the most intense rainfall on the planet and populations that rely on rain for drinking water and farming. We measured heavy hydrogen in leaf waxes from tropical Pacific islands and show that although values are within the global calibration error, no precipitation relationship exists within the region. Plant type distributions do not explain the lack of correlation, which is best attributed to poorly constrained estimates of heavy hydrogen in local rain and the relatively small range of variability within the region. At present, heavy hydrogen from ancient leaf waxes can show large changes in past precipitation, but improved process‐level understanding is needed to use this tool to understand smaller changes in the tropical Pacific and elsewhere.
    Description: Key Points: Leaf wax 2H/1H ratios are correlated with mean annual precipitation 2H/1H ratios globally, but not in the tropical Pacific. Deviations from the global relationship between precipitation leaf wax 2H/1H ratios cannot be predicted from palynological assemblages. Small range and large uncertainties in estimates of tropical Pacific precipitation 2H/1H ratios likely account for poor correlations.
    Description: Swiss National Science Foundation
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270
    Description: Department of Education and Training, Australian Research Council (ARC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
    Description: http://10.0.15.89/ethz-b-000412154
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; ddc:577.7
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: This work documents the ICON‐Earth System Model (ICON‐ESM V1.0), the first coupled model based on the ICON (ICOsahedral Non‐hydrostatic) framework with its unstructured, icosahedral grid concept. The ICON‐A atmosphere uses a nonhydrostatic dynamical core and the ocean model ICON‐O builds on the same ICON infrastructure, but applies the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximation and includes a sea‐ice model. The ICON‐Land module provides a new framework for the modeling of land processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle. The oceanic carbon cycle and biogeochemistry are represented by the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle module. We describe the tuning and spin‐up of a base‐line version at a resolution typical for models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The performance of ICON‐ESM is assessed by means of a set of standard CMIP6 simulations. Achievements are well‐balanced top‐of‐atmosphere radiation, stable key climate quantities in the control simulation, and a good representation of the historical surface temperature evolution. The model has overall biases, which are comparable to those of other CMIP models, but ICON‐ESM performs less well than its predecessor, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Problematic biases are diagnosed in ICON‐ESM in the vertical cloud distribution and the mean zonal wind field. In the ocean, sub‐surface temperature and salinity biases are of concern as is a too strong seasonal cycle of the sea‐ice cover in both hemispheres. ICON‐ESM V1.0 serves as a basis for further developments that will take advantage of ICON‐specific properties such as spatially varying resolution, and configurations at very high resolution.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: ICON‐ESM is a completely new coupled climate and earth system model that applies novel design principles and numerical techniques. The atmosphere model applies a non‐hydrostatic dynamical core, both atmosphere and ocean models apply unstructured meshes, and the model is adapted for high‐performance computing systems. This article describes how the component models for atmosphere, land, and ocean are coupled together and how we achieve a stable climate by setting certain tuning parameters and performing sensitivity experiments. We evaluate the performance of our new model by running a set of experiments under pre‐industrial and historical climate conditions as well as a set of idealized greenhouse‐gas‐increase experiments. These experiments were designed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and allow us to compare the results to those from other CMIP models and the predecessor of our model, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. While we diagnose overall satisfactory performance, we find that ICON‐ESM features somewhat larger biases in several quantities compared to its predecessor at comparable grid resolution. We emphasize that the present configuration serves as a basis from where future development steps will open up new perspectives in earth system modeling.
    Description: Key Points: This work documents ICON‐ESM 1.0, the first version of a coupled model based on the ICON framework. Performance of ICON‐ESM is assessed by means of CMIP6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima experiments at standard CMIP‐type resolution. ICON‐ESM reproduces the observed temperature evolution. Biases in clouds, winds, sea‐ice, and ocean properties are larger than in MPI‐ESM.
    Description: European Union H2020 ESM2025
    Description: European Union H2020 COMFORT
    Description: European Union H2020ESiWACE2
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft TRR181
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft EXC 2037
    Description: European Union H2020
    Description: Deutscher Wetterdienst
    Description: Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung
    Description: http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/
    Description: https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/modeling-with-icon/code-availability
    Description: http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=RUBY-0_ICON-_ESM_V1.0_Model
    Keywords: ddc:550.285 ; ddc:551.63
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: Calcareous foraminifer shells (tests) represent one of the most important archives for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstruction. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the relationship between environmental parameters and proxy signals, knowledge of the fundamental processes operating during foraminiferal biomineralization is essential. Here, we apply microscopic and diffraction‐based methods to address the crystallographic and hierarchical structure of the test wall of different hyaline foraminifer species. Our results show that the tests are constructed from micrometer‐scale oriented mesocrystals built of nanometer‐scale entities. Based on these observations, we propose a mechanistic extension to the biomineralization model for hyaline foraminifers, centered on the formation and assembly of units of metastable carbonate phases to the final mesocrystal via a non‐classical particle attachment process, possibly facilitated by organic matter. This implies the presence of metastable precursors such as vaterite or amorphous calcium carbonate, along with phase transitions to calcite, which is relevant for the mechanistic understanding of proxy incorporation in the hyaline foraminifers.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Foraminifers are single celled marine organisms typically half a millimeter in size, which form shells made of calcium carbonate. During their life, the chemical composition of their shells records environmental conditions. By analyzing fossil shells, past conditions can be reconstructed to understand ancient oceans and climate change. To do that correctly, we need to know exactly how foraminifers form their shell. We find that foraminifers build micrometer‐sized mesocrystals which are made of smaller building blocks. This means that the smallest building blocks form first and assemble to form a larger grain, which is oriented in a specific direction. To align all the building blocks, it is possible that they are first unstable and undergo transformation on assembly, during which their composition may change. By understanding and quantifying this process, the composition of the final fossil shell may be understood, ultimately leading to more reliable reconstructions of past environmental change.
    Description: Key Points: Hyaline foraminiferal shells are built of micrometer sized mesocrystalline units. Biomineralization likely includes the formation and assembly of nanoparticles. Nanometer sized units suggest non‐classical crystal growth.
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17617/3.D7HN3I
    Keywords: ddc:561.9 ; ddc:549
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-05
    Description: Prediction of stable mineral equilibria in the Earth's lithosphere is critical to unravel the tectonomagmatic history of exposed geological sections. While the recent advances in geodynamic modeling allow us to explore the dynamics of magmatic transfer in solid mediums, there is to date no available thermodynamic package that can easily be linked and efficiently be accounted for the computation of phase equilibrium in magmatic systems. Moreover, none of the existing tools fully exploit single point calculation parallelization, which strongly hinders their applicability for direct geodynamic coupling or for thermodynamic database inversions. Here, we present a new Mineral Assemblage Gibbs Energy Minimizer (magemin). The package is written as a parallel C library, provides a direct Julia interface, and is callable from any petrological/geodynamic tool. For a given set of pressure, temperature, and bulk‐rock composition magemin uses a combination of linear programming, extended Partitioning Gibbs Energy and gradient‐based local minimization to compute the stable mineral assemblage. We apply our new minimization package to the igneous thermodynamic data set of Holland et al. (2018), https://doi.org/10.1093/petrology/egy048 and produce several phase diagrams at supra‐solidus conditions. The phase diagrams are then directly benchmarked against thermocalc and exhibit very good agreement. The high scalability of magemin on parallel computing facilities opens new horizons, for example, for modeling reactive magma flow, for thermodynamic data set inversion, and for petrological/geophysical applications.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Understanding magmatic systems requires knowing how rocks melt. Because a single melting experiment can easily take weeks, it is impossible to do enough experiments to cover the whole range of pressure, temperature, and composition relevant for magmatic systems. We therefore need a way to interpolate in between conditions that are not directly covered by the experiments. It is long known that the best way to perform such interpolation is by using basic thermodynamic principles. For magmatic systems, this requires a well‐calibrated thermodynamic melting model. It also requires an efficient computational tool to predict the most stable configuration of minerals and melt. Since the 1980s, a number of such computational tools have been developed to perform a so‐called Gibbs energy minimization. These tools work very well for simpler systems but become very slow for recently developed, more realistic, melting models. Here, we describe a new method that combines some ideas of the previous methods with a new algorithm. Our method is faster and takes advantage of modern computer architectures. It can predict rock properties such as densities, seismic velocities, melt content, and chemistry. It can therefore be used to link physical observations with hard rock data of magmatic systems.
    Description: Key Points: A new, parallel, Gibbs energy minimization approach is presented to compute multiphase multicomponent equilibria. It predicts parameters like stable phases, melt content, or seismic velocities as a function of chemistry and temperature/pressure conditions. Examples and benchmark cases are presented that apply the approach to magmatic systems.
    Description: EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (ERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6347567
    Description: https://github.com/ComputationalThermodynamics/magemin.git
    Keywords: ddc:552
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-12-06
    Description: A new method to determine fluid flux at high pressures and temperatures has been developed and used to study serpentinites at subduction zone conditions. Drill cores of a natural antigorite‐serpentinite with a strong foliation were used in multi‐anvil experiments in the range of 2–5 GPa and 450–800°C. Fluids released upon dehydration are fixed by the formation of brucite in an adjacent fluid sink. The amount and distribution of brucite serves as a proxy for fluid flow. In our specific setup the sample reacted with the surrounding fluid sink to form an additional layer of olivine, which has the potential to limit fluid flux within our experiments. For conditions prior to serpentine dehydration we used Al(OH)3 as fluid source. Fluid in this experiment did not migrate through the serpentinite, indicating that serpentine has a low diffusivity. The experiments also show that small deviatoric stresses have an influence on the fluid flux and can cause an anisotropic fluid flux. Comparison between the time scales of the determined fluid flux with fluid production rates indicates fluid pressure buildup during dehydration reactions. Adjacent less permeable layers can inhibit fluid flux and cause fluid pressure buildup even at conditions when an interconnected pore space formed.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Subduction zones are regions where tectonic plates are recycled into the Earth's interior. Prior to subduction, the plates experienced extensive chemical interaction with the ocean water, forming hydrous minerals. Serpentine is an important hydrous mineral that can transport significant amounts of water into the Earth's interior. During subduction both pressure and temperature increase whereby hydrous minerals break down and release their water. The fluid migrates into the overlying mantle wedge, where it accounts for hydration as well as melting processes. The global flux balances would require this process to be very effective. However, it was so far not possible to measure the fluid flux at the subduction zone conditions in laboratories. In this study, we present a new method to determine the fluid flux prior and during dehydration. We found that prior to dehydration, the fluid flux in serpentinites is small. During dehydration the rocks ability to let fluids pass through increases. However, adjacent rocks with a low ability for fluid transport can further inhibit a fluid flux at these conditions. Generally, our experimental setup can be used for any system that immobilizes migrating fluids by hydration reactions.
    Description: Key Points: A new method to determine fluid flux at high pressure and temperature conditions is developed. Slow fluid migration in serpentinites promotes brittle fracturing in subduction zones. Fast fluid migration upon dehydration of serpentinites promotes large‐scale fluid flux, if not inhibited by adjacent less permeable layers.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: JSPS Japanese‐German Graduate Externship
    Description: Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003246
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24416/UU01-PB440D
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; fluid flux ; multi‐anvil ; serpentine ; brucite ; dehydration ; excess pressure
    Language: English
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