ALBERT

Description: Das globale Ernährungssystem ist in der Krise. Der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine hat einen starken Preisanstieg für Lebensmittel, Düngemittel und Treibstoff ausgelöst und damit eine Verschlechterung der Ernährungssicherheit insbesondere in Ländern mit niedrigem und mittlerem Einkommen. Gleichzeitig bedrohen Dürren und Extremwetterereignisse die Ernten weltweit. Mangel- und Fehlernährung existieren in zunehmendem Maße nebeneinander und kosten ebenso wie die Folgen der globalen Umweltzerstörung viele Menschenleben. Derzeit fokussiert sich die politische Diskussion vor allem auf den Anpassungsbedarf der Produktionsseite. Eine Kombination mit Anpassungen der Konsumseite sind jedoch unerlässlich, um Produzent*innen zu entlasten und die diversen Krisen gemeinsam anzugehen. Insbesondere die deutliche Reduktion von Konsum und Produktion tierischer Lebensmittel ist ein zentraler Hebel, um das globale Ernährungssystem resilienter, fairer und nachhaltiger zu gestalten. In diesem Policy Brief weisen wir auf die Dringlichkeit entsprechender politischer Maßnahmen hin und machen drei konkrete Umsetzungsvorschläge: Einrichtung eines Transformationsfonds für die Umstellung, Etablierung wirkungsvoller Lenkungsabgaben und Aufbau zukunftsweisender Institutionen zur Transformation des Ernährungssystems.

Description: In den 10 Must-Knows aus der Biodiversitätsforschung legen 45 Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler fundiert und allgemein verständlich Fakten zur biologischen Vielfalt dar. Sie analysieren die komplexen Systeme der Erde, indem sie zehn Schlüsselbereiche hervorheben, von denen wiederum jeder untrennbar mit allen anderen verbunden ist. Sie zeigen Wege auf, um einen weiteren Verlust an Artenvielfalt und Ökosystemen zu stoppen und die biologische Vielfalt zu fördern. Ihr Ziel ist, für Politik und Gesellschaft wissenschaftlich gesicherte Bewertungen der aktuellen Erkenntnisse für bessere politische Entscheidungen und Maßnahmen auf lokaler, regionaler, nationaler und globaler Ebene zur Verfügung zu stellen, um die Vielfalt des Lebens – die Biodiversität – zu erhalten. Dies sind die 10MustKnows 2022: 1. Klima- und Biodiversitätsschutz zusammen verwirklichen 2. Planetare Gesundheit stärken 3. Unsichtbare Biodiversität beachten 4. Biokulturelle Lebensräume fördern 5. Wald nachhaltig nutzen 6. Landwirtschaft umbauen 7. Land und Ressourcen schützen 8. Transnationale Infrastrukturen und Bildung für Nachhaltigkeit 9. Zugang und offene Nutzung von Forschungsdaten sichern 10. Biodiversitätsfreundliche Anreize setzen

Description: Dieses Kurzdossier analysiert die Auswirkungen der Energiekrise auf die Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems zur Klimaneutralität 2045 sowie Strategien zur Beseitigung der Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von russischen Erdgasimporten.

Description: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: Niger has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Niger: (1) agroforestry and farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees, (2) integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), (3) irrigation and (4) improved fodder management for livestock. The impact assessment includes climate projections based on two future emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydrological modelling on water availability, modelling and comparison of future yields of four dominant crops (sorghum, millet, maize and cowpeas) and an as-sessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, the four adaptation strategies suggested by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, cost-effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is projected to increase further in Niger, up to +1.3 °C (SSP1-RCP2.6) and +4.2 °C (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, in reference to 2004. The mean annual precipitation sum is also projected to increase until 2050 under both emissions scenarios, with a slight decrease in the interannual variability. In the second half of the century, this trend in precipitation is likely to continue (SSP3-RCP7.0) or decrease slightly (SSP1-RCP2.6), while the year-to-year variability would increase. Greater annual rates of groundwater recharge due to increasing precipitation amounts and higher annual mean river discharge are expected until mid-century. Sorghum yields would decline in general, by 20-50% (SSP1-RCP2.6) or 40-75% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, compared to 2005. Crop models hinted at an increase in the suitability of sorghum and millet, and no significant change for maize and cowpeas in Niger under both emissions scenarios. In addition, the potential for multiple cropping would de-crease from mid-century, limiting farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, the grazing potential is likely to decrease in the south and increase in the central regions of Niger, under SSP1-RCP2.6, while it is expected to increase in the whole country under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, risk-independent, with a medium to high risk mitigation potential, and can bring about various co-benefits. FMNR practice can be highly recommended, as the upscaling potential is high and the climate resilience of local livelihoods will be strengthened. ISFM can help to improve water use efficiency and benefit from positive environmental and social outcomes. Irrigation has a medium potential to improve livelihoods of smallholder farmers but is also a support-intensive adaptation strategy that needs to be carefully implemented in order to avoid overexploitation of local water resources. Lastly, improved fodder management, especially al-falfa production, contributes to building up resilience of livestock farming systems and affects women and youth employment positively. Gener-ally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can yield additional benefits and active stake-holder engagement as well as participatory ap-proaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation as well as development planning and investments in order to strengthen the climate resilience of the Nigerien agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers.

Description: Das globale Agrar- und Ernährungssystem befindet sich im Wandel. Die Folgen des Klimawandels und andere Umweltauswirkungen beeinflussen agrarische Produktionsmuster, Ernteerträge und Ernährungssicherheit - nicht nur lokal vor Ort, sondern auch entlang der Lieferketten. Anpassungen der Ernährungsgewohnheiten füh - ren zu einer veränderten Nachfrage. Global ist eine Veränderung des Agrar- und Ernährungssystems aus min - destens vier Gründen geboten: Erstens ist die Landwirtschaft Hauptverursacherin des Artensterbens und trägt zum Klimawandel bei. Zweitens leidet nach wie vor ein Zehntel der Weltbevölkerung unter Hunger. Drittens verschärfen Fehlernährung und Übergewicht in den meisten Ländern der Welt bestimmte Krankheiten und verursachen gesellschaftliche Kosten. Viertens lebt in Industrieländern der überwältigende Teil der Nutztiere in Massentierhaltung. In diesem Beitrag ordnen wir die Krise des Agrar- und Ernährungssystems in Europa anhand ausgewählter in- terdisziplinärer Sichtweisen ein. Dabei zeigen wir auf, dass eine wissenschaftliche Annäherung an die Ursachen und potentiellen Lösungsmöglichkeiten der Ernährungskrise quantitativer Analysen und Modellierung be- darf, welche die komplexen Interaktionen von natürlichen und sozial-ökonomischen Systemen abbilden. Wir zeigen außerdem, dass zusätzlich auch normative Antworten darauf, wie die Lasten der Ernährungswende zu verteilen sind, notwendig sind. Darüber hinaus hängen die Ziele der Ernährungswende davon ab, welchen moralischen Wert und Schutz wir Nutztieren und intakten Ökosystemen zusprechen, und wie wir globale Nahrungsmittelsicherheit schaffen wollen. Als Lösungsmöglichkeiten für die gesellschaftlichen Probleme des Agrar- und Ernährungssystems wer- den Diversifizierung von Handelsbeziehungen und länderübergreifende Anpassungsstrategien, Bildung für Nachhaltige Entwicklung, eine sozial gerecht ausgestaltete Bepreisung der Umweltkosten des Konsums von Tierprodukten und Schritte zur Umsetzung des gesellschaftlichen Konsens zur Abschaffung der Massentierhaltung betrachtet. Der Beitrag macht darauf aufmerksam, dass das Thema nicht nur die Abgrenzung der Problemfelder Arten- sterben, Gesundheit, Hunger und Tierschutz sprengt, sondern auch der verschiedenen Bewertungsmaßstäbe wie der ethischen Bewertung, der ökonomischen Effizienz und des partizipativen Dialogs. Für letzteren fehlt es oftmals an umfassender interdisziplinärer Wissenschaftskommunikation.

Description: Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes, modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize, cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties, (2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity. Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.