Publication Date:
1998-01-01
Description:
A one-dimensional time-dependent flowline model of Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, has been used to test the glacier’s response to climatic warming. Mass-balance variations over the last 100 years are obtained from observations of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and a reconstruction of the ELA based on a statistical correlation between temperature and ELA. For the period prior to AD 1882, for which no reliable climate data exist, we chose equilibrium-line altitudes that enabled us to simulate accurately the glacier length from AD 1602.The model simulates the historical glacier length almost perfectly and glacier geometry very well. It underestimates glacier-surface velocities by 1-18%. Following these reference experiments, we investigated the response of Rhonegletscher to a number of climate-change scenarios for the period AD 1990-2100. For a constant climate equal to the 1961-90 mean, the model predicts a 6% decrease in glacier volume by AD 2100. Rhonegletscher will retreat by almost 1 km over the next 100 years at this scenario. At a warming rate of 0.04 K a-1, only 4% of the glacier volume will be left by AD 2100.
Print ISSN:
0022-1430
Electronic ISSN:
1727-5652
Topics:
Geography
,
Geosciences
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