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  • 1
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    Reply to 'Sources of uncertainties in cod distribution models' (2015)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-22
    Description: Nature Climate Change 5 790 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2762
    Print ISSN: 1758-678X
    Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 2
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    Observed and modelled stability of overflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge (2008)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2008-09-27
    Description: Across the Greenland-Scotland ridge there is a continuous flow of cold dense water, termed 'overflow', from the Nordic seas to the Atlantic Ocean. This is a main contributor to the production of North Atlantic Deep Water that feeds the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which has been predicted to weaken as a consequence of climate change. The two main overflow branches pass the Denmark Strait and the Faroe Bank channel. Here we combine results from direct current measurements in the Faroe Bank channel for 1995-2005 with an ensemble hindcast experiment for 1948-2005 using an ocean general circulation model. For the overlapping period we find a convincing agreement between model simulations and observations on monthly to interannual timescales. Both observations and model data show no significant trend in volume transport. In addition, for the whole 1948-2005 period, the model indicates no persistent trend in the Faroe Bank channel overflow or in the total overflow transport, in agreement with the few available historical observations. Deepening isopycnals in the Norwegian Sea have tended to decrease the pressure difference across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, but this has been compensated for by the effect of changes in sea level. In contrast with earlier studies, we therefore conclude that the Faroe Bank channel overflow, and also the total overflow, did not decrease consistently from 1950 to 2005, although the model does show a weakening total Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as a result of changes south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Olsen, Steffen M -- Hansen, Bogi -- Quadfasel, Detlef -- Osterhus, Svein -- England -- Nature. 2008 Sep 25;455(7212):519-22. doi: 10.1038/nature07302.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. smo@dmi.dk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18818655" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Computer Simulation ; Denmark ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Ice/analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Pressure ; Scotland ; Seawater/*analysis ; *Water Movements
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 3
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    Quaternary coral reef refugia preserved fish diversity (2014)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-05-31
    Description: The most prominent pattern in global marine biogeography is the biodiversity peak in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Yet the processes that underpin this pattern are still actively debated. By reconstructing global marine paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years on the basis of sediment cores, we assessed the extent to which Quaternary climate fluctuations can explain global variation in current reef fish richness. Comparing global historical coral reef habitat availability with the present-day distribution of 6316 reef fish species, we find that distance from stable coral reef habitats during historical periods of habitat loss explains 62% of the variation in fish richness, outweighing present-day environmental factors. Our results highlight the importance of habitat persistence during periods of climate change for preserving marine biodiversity.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pellissier, Loic -- Leprieur, Fabien -- Parravicini, Valeriano -- Cowman, Peter F -- Kulbicki, Michel -- Litsios, Glenn -- Olsen, Steffen M -- Wisz, Mary S -- Bellwood, David R -- Mouillot, David -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2014 May 30;344(6187):1016-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1249853.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉University of Fribourg, Department of Biology, Chemin du Musee 10, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000 C Aarhus, Denmark. ; Laboratoire Ecologie des Systemes Marins Cotiers UMR 5119, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), Institut Francais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. ; IRD, UR 227 CoReUs, LABEX (Laboratoire d'Excellence) Corail, Laboratoire Arago, Boite Postale 44, FR-66651 Banyuls/mer, France. CESAB (Centre de Synthese et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversite)-FRB (Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversite), Immeuble Henri Poincare, Domaine du Petit Arbois, FR-13857 Aix-en-Provence cedex 3, France. ; Centre for Macroevolution and Macroecology, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. ; IRD, UR 227 CoReUs, LABEX (Laboratoire d'Excellence) Corail, Laboratoire Arago, Boite Postale 44, FR-66651 Banyuls/mer, France. ; Department of Ecology and Evolution, Biophore Building, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Quartier Sorge, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. ; Center for Ocean and Ice, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. ; Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000 C Aarhus, Denmark. Department of Ecology and Environment, DHI Water and Environment, 2970 Horsholm, Denmark. ; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia. ; Laboratoire Ecologie des Systemes Marins Cotiers UMR 5119, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), Institut Francais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia. david.mouillot@univ-montp2.fr.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24876495" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Animals ; Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; *Fishes
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 4
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    Arctic warming will promote Atlantic–Pacific fish interchange (2015)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-02-26
    Description: Potential interchange between north Atlantic and north Pacific fish communities is modelled for future Arctic conditions under climate change. Nature Climate Change 5 261 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2500
    Print ISSN: 1758-678X
    Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 5
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    Expected seismic shaking in Los Angeles reduced by San Andreas fault zone plasticity (2014)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-14
    Description: Computer simulations of large ( M  ≥ 7.8) earthquakes rupturing the southern San Andreas fault from SE to NW (e.g., ShakeOut, widely used for earthquake drills) have predicted strong long-period ground motions in the densely populated Los Angeles basin due to channeling of waves through a series of interconnected sedimentary basins. Recently, the importance of this waveguide amplification effect for seismic shaking in the Los Angeles basin has also been confirmed from observations of the ambient seismic field in the SAVELA experiment. By simulating the ShakeOut earthquake scenario (based on a kinematic source description) for a medium governed by Drucker-Prager plasticity, we show that nonlinear material behavior could reduce the earlier predictions of large long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles basin by up to 70% as compared to viscoelastic solutions. These reductions are primarily due to yielding near the fault, although yielding may also occur in the shallow low-velocity deposits of the Los Angeles basin if cohesions are close to zero. Fault zone plasticity remains important even for conservative values of cohesions, suggesting that current simulations assuming a linear response of rocks are overpredicting ground motions during future large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Off-fault Deformations and Shallow Slip Deficit from Dynamic Rupture Simulations with Fault Zone Plasticity (2017)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-07-21
    Description: Kinematic source inversions of major ( M ≥ 7) strike-slip earthquakes show that the slip at depth exceeds surface displacements measured in the field, and it has been suggested that this shallow slip deficit (SSD) is caused by distributed plastic deformation near the surface. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of M 7.2–7.4 earthquakes in elastoplastic media and analyze the sensitivity of SSD and off-fault deformation (OFD) to rock quality parameters. While linear simulations clearly underpredict observed SSD and OFDs, nonlinear simulations for a moderately fractured fault damage zone predict a SSD of 44–53% and OFDs of 39–48%, consistent with the 30–60% SSD and 46±10% (1 σ ) OFD reported for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake. Both SSD and OFDs are sensitive to the quality of the fractured rock mass inside the fault damage zone, and surface rupture is almost entirely suppressed in poor quality material.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
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    Stability and forcing of the Iceland-Faroe inflow of water, heat, and salt to the Arctic (2010)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-12-13
    Description: The flow of Atlantic water across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) is critical for conditions in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean by importing heat and salt. Here, we present a decade-long series of measurements from the Iceland-Faroe inflow branch (IF-inflow), which carries almost half the total Atlantic inflow. The observations show no significant trend in volume transport of Atlantic water, but temperature and salinity increased during the observational period. On shorter time scales, the observations show considerable variations but no statistically significant seasonal variation is observed and even weekly averaged transport values were consistently uni-directional from the Atlantic into the Nordic Seas. Combining transport time-series with sea level height from satellite altimetry and wind stress reveals that the force driving the IF-inflow across the topographic barrier of the Ridge is mainly generated by a pressure gradient that is due to a continuously maintained low sea level in the Southern Nordic Seas. This implies that the relative stability of the IF-inflow derives from the processes that lower the sea level by generating outflow from the Nordic Seas, especially the thermohaline processes that generate overflow. The IF-inflow is an important component of the system coupling the Arctic region to the North Atlantic through the thermohaline circulation, which has been predicted to weaken in the 21st century. Our observations show no indication of weakening.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0784
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0792
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
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    Biased thermohaline exchanges with the Arctic across the Iceland–Faroe Ridge in ocean climate models (2016)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-04-13
    Description: The northern limb of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its transport of heat and salt towards the Arctic strongly modulate the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The presence of warm surface waters prevents ice formation in parts of the Arctic Mediterranean, and ocean heat is directly available for sea-ice melt, while salt transport may be critical for the stability of the exchanges. Through these mechanisms, ocean heat and salt transports play a disproportionally strong role in the climate system, and realistic simulation is a requisite for reliable climate projections. Across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) this occurs in three well-defined branches where anomalies in the warm and saline Atlantic inflow across the shallow Iceland–Faroe Ridge (IFR) have been shown to be particularly difficult to simulate in global ocean models. This branch (IF-inflow) carries about 40 % of the total ocean heat transport into the Arctic Mediterranean and is well constrained by observation during the last 2 decades but associated with significant inter-annual fluctuations. The inconsistency between model results and observational data is here explained by the inability of coarse-resolution models to simulate the overflow across the IFR (IF-overflow), which feeds back onto the simulated IF-inflow. In effect, this is reduced in the model to reflect only the net exchange across the IFR. Observational evidence is presented for a substantial and persistent IF-overflow and mechanisms that qualitatively control its intensity. Through this, we explain the main discrepancies between observed and simulated exchange. Our findings rebuild confidence in modelled net exchange across the IFR, but reveal that compensation of model deficiencies here through other exchange branches is not effective. This implies that simulated ocean heat transport to the Arctic is biased low by more than 10 % and associated with a reduced level of variability, while the quality of the simulated salt transport becomes critically dependent on the link between IF-inflow and IF-overflow. These features likely affect sensitivity and stability of climate models to climate change and limit the predictive skill.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0784
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0792
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
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    Biased thermohaline exchanges with the arctic across the Iceland-Faroe Ridge in ocean climate models (2015)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-14
    Description: The northern limb of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its transport of heat and salt towards the Arctic strongly modulates the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Presence of warm surface waters prevents ice formation in parts of the Arctic Mediterranean and ocean heat is in critical regions directly available for sea-ice melt, while salt transport may be critical for the stability of the exchanges. Hereby, ocean heat and salt transports play a disproportionally strong role in the climate system and realistic simulation is a requisite for reliable climate projections. Across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) this occurs in three well defined branches where anomalies in the warm and saline Atlantic inflow across the shallow Iceland-Faroe Ridge (IFR) have shown particularly difficult to simulate in global ocean models. This branch (IF-inflow) carries about 40 % of the total ocean heat transport into the Arctic Mediterranean and is well constrained by observation during the last two decades but is associated with significant inter-annual fluctuations. The inconsistency between model results and observational data is here explained by the inability of coarse resolution models to simulate the overflow across the IFR (IF-overflow), which feeds back on the simulated IF-inflow. In effect, this is reduced in the model to reflect only the net exchange across the IFR. Observational evidence is presented for a substantial and persistent IF-overflow and mechanisms that qualitatively control its intensity. Through this, we explain the main discrepancies between observed and simulated exchange. Our findings rebuild confidence in modeled net exchange across the IFR, but reveal that compensation of model deficiencies here through other exchange branches is not effective. This implies that simulated ocean heat transport to the Arctic is biased low by more than 10 % and associated with a reduced level of variability while the quality of the simulated salt transport becomes critically dependent on the link between IF-inflow and IF-overflow. These features likely affect sensitivity and stability of climate models to climate change and limit the predictive skill.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0806
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0822
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 10
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    Stability and forcing of the Iceland-Faroe inflow of water, heat, and salt to the Arctic (2010)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-07-09
    Description: The flow of Atlantic water across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) is critical for conditions in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean by importing heat and salt. Here, we present a decade-long series of measurements from the Iceland-Faroe inflow branch (IF-inflow), which carries almost half the total Atlantic inflow. The observations show no significant trend in volume transport of Atlantic water, but temperature and salinity increased during the observational period. On shorter time scales, the observations show considerable variations but no statistically significant seasonal variation is observed and even weekly averaged transport values were consistently uni-directional from the Atlantic into the Nordic Seas. Combining transport time-series with sea level height from satellite altimetry and wind stress reveals that the force driving the IF-inflow across the topographic barrier of the Ridge is mainly generated by a pressure gradient that is due to a continuously maintained low sea level in the Southern Nordic Seas. This links the IF-inflow to the estuarine and thermohaline processes that generate outflow from the Nordic Seas and lower its sea level. The IF-inflow is an important component of the system coupling the Arctic region to the North Atlantic through the thermohaline circulation, which has been predicted to weaken in the 21st century. Our observations show no indication of weakening, as yet.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0806
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0822
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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