ALBERT

Description: Computer simulations of large ( M  ≥ 7.8) earthquakes rupturing the southern San Andreas fault from SE to NW (e.g., ShakeOut, widely used for earthquake drills) have predicted strong long-period ground motions in the densely populated Los Angeles basin due to channeling of waves through a series of interconnected sedimentary basins. Recently, the importance of this waveguide amplification effect for seismic shaking in the Los Angeles basin has also been confirmed from observations of the ambient seismic field in the SAVELA experiment. By simulating the ShakeOut earthquake scenario (based on a kinematic source description) for a medium governed by Drucker-Prager plasticity, we show that nonlinear material behavior could reduce the earlier predictions of large long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles basin by up to 70% as compared to viscoelastic solutions. These reductions are primarily due to yielding near the fault, although yielding may also occur in the shallow low-velocity deposits of the Los Angeles basin if cohesions are close to zero. Fault zone plasticity remains important even for conservative values of cohesions, suggesting that current simulations assuming a linear response of rocks are overpredicting ground motions during future large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault.

Description: Kinematic source inversions of major ( M ≥ 7) strike-slip earthquakes show that the slip at depth exceeds surface displacements measured in the field, and it has been suggested that this shallow slip deficit (SSD) is caused by distributed plastic deformation near the surface. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of M 7.2–7.4 earthquakes in elastoplastic media and analyze the sensitivity of SSD and off-fault deformation (OFD) to rock quality parameters. While linear simulations clearly underpredict observed SSD and OFDs, nonlinear simulations for a moderately fractured fault damage zone predict a SSD of 44–53% and OFDs of 39–48%, consistent with the 30–60% SSD and 46±10% (1 σ ) OFD reported for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake. Both SSD and OFDs are sensitive to the quality of the fractured rock mass inside the fault damage zone, and surface rupture is almost entirely suppressed in poor quality material.

Description: The flow of Atlantic water across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) is critical for conditions in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean by importing heat and salt. Here, we present a decade-long series of measurements from the Iceland-Faroe inflow branch (IF-inflow), which carries almost half the total Atlantic inflow. The observations show no significant trend in volume transport of Atlantic water, but temperature and salinity increased during the observational period. On shorter time scales, the observations show considerable variations but no statistically significant seasonal variation is observed and even weekly averaged transport values were consistently uni-directional from the Atlantic into the Nordic Seas. Combining transport time-series with sea level height from satellite altimetry and wind stress reveals that the force driving the IF-inflow across the topographic barrier of the Ridge is mainly generated by a pressure gradient that is due to a continuously maintained low sea level in the Southern Nordic Seas. This implies that the relative stability of the IF-inflow derives from the processes that lower the sea level by generating outflow from the Nordic Seas, especially the thermohaline processes that generate overflow. The IF-inflow is an important component of the system coupling the Arctic region to the North Atlantic through the thermohaline circulation, which has been predicted to weaken in the 21st century. Our observations show no indication of weakening.

Description: The northern limb of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its transport of heat and salt towards the Arctic strongly modulate the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The presence of warm surface waters prevents ice formation in parts of the Arctic Mediterranean, and ocean heat is directly available for sea-ice melt, while salt transport may be critical for the stability of the exchanges. Through these mechanisms, ocean heat and salt transports play a disproportionally strong role in the climate system, and realistic simulation is a requisite for reliable climate projections. Across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) this occurs in three well-defined branches where anomalies in the warm and saline Atlantic inflow across the shallow Iceland–Faroe Ridge (IFR) have been shown to be particularly difficult to simulate in global ocean models. This branch (IF-inflow) carries about 40 % of the total ocean heat transport into the Arctic Mediterranean and is well constrained by observation during the last 2 decades but associated with significant inter-annual fluctuations. The inconsistency between model results and observational data is here explained by the inability of coarse-resolution models to simulate the overflow across the IFR (IF-overflow), which feeds back onto the simulated IF-inflow. In effect, this is reduced in the model to reflect only the net exchange across the IFR. Observational evidence is presented for a substantial and persistent IF-overflow and mechanisms that qualitatively control its intensity. Through this, we explain the main discrepancies between observed and simulated exchange. Our findings rebuild confidence in modelled net exchange across the IFR, but reveal that compensation of model deficiencies here through other exchange branches is not effective. This implies that simulated ocean heat transport to the Arctic is biased low by more than 10 % and associated with a reduced level of variability, while the quality of the simulated salt transport becomes critically dependent on the link between IF-inflow and IF-overflow. These features likely affect sensitivity and stability of climate models to climate change and limit the predictive skill.

Description: The northern limb of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its transport of heat and salt towards the Arctic strongly modulates the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Presence of warm surface waters prevents ice formation in parts of the Arctic Mediterranean and ocean heat is in critical regions directly available for sea-ice melt, while salt transport may be critical for the stability of the exchanges. Hereby, ocean heat and salt transports play a disproportionally strong role in the climate system and realistic simulation is a requisite for reliable climate projections. Across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) this occurs in three well defined branches where anomalies in the warm and saline Atlantic inflow across the shallow Iceland-Faroe Ridge (IFR) have shown particularly difficult to simulate in global ocean models. This branch (IF-inflow) carries about 40 % of the total ocean heat transport into the Arctic Mediterranean and is well constrained by observation during the last two decades but is associated with significant inter-annual fluctuations. The inconsistency between model results and observational data is here explained by the inability of coarse resolution models to simulate the overflow across the IFR (IF-overflow), which feeds back on the simulated IF-inflow. In effect, this is reduced in the model to reflect only the net exchange across the IFR. Observational evidence is presented for a substantial and persistent IF-overflow and mechanisms that qualitatively control its intensity. Through this, we explain the main discrepancies between observed and simulated exchange. Our findings rebuild confidence in modeled net exchange across the IFR, but reveal that compensation of model deficiencies here through other exchange branches is not effective. This implies that simulated ocean heat transport to the Arctic is biased low by more than 10 % and associated with a reduced level of variability while the quality of the simulated salt transport becomes critically dependent on the link between IF-inflow and IF-overflow. These features likely affect sensitivity and stability of climate models to climate change and limit the predictive skill.

Description: The flow of Atlantic water across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) is critical for conditions in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean by importing heat and salt. Here, we present a decade-long series of measurements from the Iceland-Faroe inflow branch (IF-inflow), which carries almost half the total Atlantic inflow. The observations show no significant trend in volume transport of Atlantic water, but temperature and salinity increased during the observational period. On shorter time scales, the observations show considerable variations but no statistically significant seasonal variation is observed and even weekly averaged transport values were consistently uni-directional from the Atlantic into the Nordic Seas. Combining transport time-series with sea level height from satellite altimetry and wind stress reveals that the force driving the IF-inflow across the topographic barrier of the Ridge is mainly generated by a pressure gradient that is due to a continuously maintained low sea level in the Southern Nordic Seas. This links the IF-inflow to the estuarine and thermohaline processes that generate outflow from the Nordic Seas and lower its sea level. The IF-inflow is an important component of the system coupling the Arctic region to the North Atlantic through the thermohaline circulation, which has been predicted to weaken in the 21st century. Our observations show no indication of weakening, as yet.

Description: Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Description: Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes seem to be underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate-carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2x and 4x CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate-carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by General Circulation Models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows considerable synergy between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from paleoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of errors in the reconstructions of volcanic and/or solar radiative forcing used to drive the models or the incomplete representation of certain processes or variability within the models. Given the datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate-carbon feedbacks from paleoclimate reconstructions.