Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
In this paper we present a new statistical approach able to provide tephra deposit load and ash concentration
using PUFF, a lagrangian model widely used to forecast volcanic ash dispersal during volcanic crisis. We
perform a parametric study in order to analyze the influence of each input parameter on model outputs. For
this test, we simulate two eruptive scenarios like to the 2001 (Scenario 1) and 1998 (Scenario 2) Etna
eruptions using high resolution weather data and a domain of 170 x 170 km. Results show that for both
scenarios, we are able to calculate the tephra deposit load and ash concentration but the use of millions of
particles is required. Specifically, up to 33 and 220 millions of particles were necessary to accurately
predict the tephra deposit and ash concentration in air, respectively. This is approximately two orders of
magnitude larger than values typically considered running PUFF. The parametric study shows that the
horizontal diffusion coefficient, the time step of the simulations, the topography and the standard deviation
of the particle distribution greatly affect the model outputs. We also validate the model by best fit
procedures. Results show a good comparison between field data of the 2001 Etna eruption and PUFF
simulations, being inside 5 and 1/5 times the observed data, comparable with results of Eulerian models.
This work will allow to reliably outlining the areas of contaminated airspace using PUFF or any other
lagrangian model in order to define the No Fly Zone and ensure the safety to aviation operations as required
after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption.
Description:
In press
Description:
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
ash dispersal
;
PUFF model;
;
01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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