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  • 1
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Probabilistic earthquake prediction ; Aegean area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation. A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria. The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 140 (1993), S. 593-612 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; seismicity models ; aegean area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Aegean and surrounding area (34°N–43°N, 18°E–30°E) is separated into 76 shallow and intermediate depth seismogenic sources. For 74 of these sources intervent times for strong mainshocks have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data. These times have been used to determine the following empirical relations: $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.24M_{\min } + 0.25M_p - 0.36\log \dot M_0 + 7.36 \hfill \\ M_f = 1.04M_{\min } - 0.31M_p + 0.28\log \dot M_0 - 4.85 \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ whereT 1 is the interevent time, measured in years,M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M f the magnitude of the following mainshock, $$\dot M_0 $$ the moment rate in each source per year. A multiple correlation coefficient equal to 0.74 and a standard deviation equal to 0.18 for the first of these relations were calculated. The corresponding quantities for the second of these relations are 0.91 and 0.22. On the basis of the first of these relations and taking into consideration the time of occurence and the magnitude of the last mainshock, the probabilities for the occurrence of mainshocks in each seismogenic source of this region during the decade 1993–2002 are determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; regionalization ; Greece ; attenuation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A semi-probabilistic approach to the seismic hazard assessment of Greece is presented. For this reason, a recent seismotectonic model for shallow and intermediate depth earthquake sources, based on historical as well as on instrumental data, was used. Different attenuation formulae were proposed for the macroseismic intensity and the strong ground motion parameters for the shallow and the intermediate focal depth shocks. The data were elaborated in terms of McGuire's computer program, which is based on the Cornell's method. A grid of equally spaced points at 20 km distance was made and the seismic hazard recurrence curves for various parameters of the seismic intensity was estimated for each point. Finally, seismic hazard maps for the area of Greece were compiled utilizing the entire range of recurrence curves. These maps depict areas of equal seismic hazard and for every area the analytical relations of the typeSI =f(Tm), whereSI is a seismic intensity parameter andTm is the mean return period, were determined.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of seismology 1 (1997), S. 181-201 
    ISSN: 1573-157X
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A catalogue of 356 macroseimic maps which are available for the Balkan area was compiled, including information on the source parameters of the corresponding earthquakes, the macroseismic parameters of their strength and their macroseismic field. The data analysis of this catalogue yields new empirical relations for attenuation, which can be applied for the calibration of historical events, modelling of isoseismals and seismic hazard assessment. An appropriate analysis allowed the separation and estimation of the average values of the geometrical spreading, n, and anelastic attenuation factor, c, for the examined area which were found equal to −3.227 ± 0.112 and −0.0033 ± 0.0010. Scaling relations for the focal macroseismic intensity, If, and the epicentral intensity I0, versus the earthquake moment magnitude were also determined for each Balkan country. A gradual decrease of the order of 0.5 to 1 intensity unit is demonstrated for recent (after 1970) earthquakes in Greece. Finally the depths of the examined earthquakes as they robustly determined (error 〈5 km) on the basis of macroseismic data were found to have small values (∼ 10 km). However large magnitude earthquakes show higher focal depths (∼ 25 km), in accordance with an increase of the seismic fault dimensions for such events.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of seismology 2 (1998), S. 363-375 
    ISSN: 1573-157X
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Papazachos and Papaioannou (1997) (called PP97 hereinafter) studied the macroseismic field in the Balkan area (Greece, Albania, former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and western Turkey) with the purpose of deriving attenuation and scaling relations useful for seismic hazard assessment and study of historical earthquakes. In his comment, Trifunac suggests that our analysis might exhibit certain bias for all countries except Greece due to problems mainly associated with the database (completeness, etc.), conversion of local intensity scales used in the Balkan countries, as well as to the local variations of the attenuation relation due to the variation of the geotectonic environment in this area. Specifically, his most important comments can be summarized as follows: a) The large participation of Greek data probably biased the scaling relations proposed in the study. b) The conversion relations used between local macroseismic scales are less accurate than their proposed such relations. c) The variation of attenuation (geometrical and anelastic) in different regions of the study area is important and local relations (instead of the proposed single relation) should be determined for seismic hazard assessment. In the following, we study in detail each of these possible bias sources. Additional work on the macroseismic field of the Balkan area shows that none of the previously described factors, suggested by Trifunac, introduces bias in the results presented by PP97. Specifically, it is shown that the database used by PP97 fulfills the basic requirements for a reliable determinations of attenuation and scaling relations proper for seismic hazard assessment in all five countries of this area. Evidence is presented that no strong geographical variation of the attenuation of macroseismic intensities of shallow earthquakes is observed. Relations between local version of intensity scales suggested by Shebalin et al. (1974) are shown to be reliable. Finally, it is demonstrated that national practices for estimation of macroseismic intensities may affect the results of seismic hazard assessment but proper formulation can be applied (PP97) which allows to take into account such differences in national practices. This formulation allows also to introduce and correct for anisotropic radiation at the seismic source as well as the incorporation of site effects.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2000-02-01
    Description: An improved procedure is followed to assess time-independent and time-dependent hazard for 144 broad sites (cities, towns, villages) of Greece in terms of expected macroseismic intensities at each one of these sites. In this procedure several new results are taken into account: source parameters based on new research work on seismicity and on other relative information (new regionalization and improved seismicity data parameters and anisotropic radiation at the seismic source), a new relation for the attenuation of macroseismic intensities, and the effect of local conditions (site effects) on the strong-ground motion. Analytic relations and tables, determined by this procedure, permit the reliable assessment of time-independent hazard, in terms of macroseismic intensity (in MM scale), peak-horizontal-ground acceleration, and velocity at each one of these 144 sites and at any probability level. Time-dependent hazard has been also assessed for these 144 broad sites in Greece, in terms of the probability for the occurrence of strong ground-motion with macroseismic intensity I〉 or =VII (in MM scale) at each one of these sites during the period 1996-2010. Comparison of the assessed time dependent hazard with observed macroseismic intensities of the period 1950-1995 indicates that the time-dependent model gives very reasonable results.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2004-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-01-18
    Description: In the present work we propose a new seismic zonation model of area type sources for the broader Aegean area, which can be readily used for seismic hazard assessment. The definition of this model is based not only on seismicity information but incorporates all available seismotectonic and neotectonic information for the study area, in an attempt to define zones which show not only a rather homogeneous seismicity release but also exhibit similar active faulting characteristics. For this reason, all available seismological information such as fault plane solutions and the corresponding kinematic axes have been incorporated in the analysis, as well as information about active tectonics, such as seismic and active faults. Moreover, various morphotectonic features (e.g. relief, coastline) were also considered. Finally, a revised seismic catalogue is employed and earthquake epicentres since historical times (550 BC–2008) are employed, in order to define areas of common seismotectonic characteristics, that could constitute a discrete seismic zone. A new revised model of 113 earthquake seismic zones of shallow earthquakes for the broader Aegean area is finally proposed. Using the proposed zonation model, a detailed study is performed for the catalogue completeness for the recent instrumental period.Using the defined completeness information, seismicity parameters (such as G–R values) for the 113 new seismic zones have been calculated, and their spatial distribution was also examined. The spatial variation of the obtained b values shows an excellent correlation with the geotectonic setting in the area, in good agreement with previous studies. Moreover, a quantitative estimation of seismicity is performed in terms of the mean return period, Tm, of large (M  ≥  6.0) earthquakes, as well as the most frequent maximum magnitude, Mt, for a typical time period (T  =  50 yr), revealing significant spatial variations of seismicity levels within the study area. The new proposed seismic zonation model and its parameters can be readily employed for seismic hazard assessment for the broader Aegean area.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2009-04-01
    Description: On 8 January 2006, an intermediate-depth earthquake occurred at the western part of the Hellenic trench close to the island of Kythera (southern Greece). This is the first intermediate-depth earthquake in the broader Aegean area that has produced such an extensive set of useful recordings, as it was recorded by the main permanent seismological networks and numerous acceleration sensors operating in Greece, as well as by EGELADOS, a large-scale temporary amphibian broadband seismological network deployed in the southern Aegean area. An effort to combine all the available data (broadband velocity and acceleration sensor) was made to study the properties of ground-motion attenuation of this earthquake. The combination of both types of data revealed interesting properties of the earthquake wave field, which would remain hidden if only one type of data was used. Moreover, the data have been used for a validation of existing peak ground-motion empirical prediction relations and the preliminary study of the very inhomogeneous attenuation pattern of the southern Aegean intermediate-depth events at both near- and far-source distances.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
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