Publication Date:
2013-04-09
Description:
Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3651993/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3651993/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bhatt, Samir -- Gething, Peter W -- Brady, Oliver J -- Messina, Jane P -- Farlow, Andrew W -- Moyes, Catherine L -- Drake, John M -- Brownstein, John S -- Hoen, Anne G -- Sankoh, Osman -- Myers, Monica F -- George, Dylan B -- Jaenisch, Thomas -- Wint, G R William -- Simmons, Cameron P -- Scott, Thomas W -- Farrar, Jeremy J -- Hay, Simon I -- 084368/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom -- 089276/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom -- 095066/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom -- 097318/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom -- R01 AI069341/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- R01 AI091980/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- R01 GM083224/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom -- England -- Nature. 2013 Apr 25;496(7446):504-7. doi: 10.1038/nature12060. Epub 2013 Apr 7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23563266" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Cohort Studies
;
Databases, Factual/standards
;
Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission/virology
;
Dengue Virus/physiology
;
Global Health/*statistics & numerical data
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Public Health/statistics & numerical data
;
Quality Control
;
Rain
;
Risk Factors
;
Temperature
;
Tropical Climate
;
Urbanization
;
World Health Organization
Print ISSN:
0028-0836
Electronic ISSN:
1476-4687
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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