Publication Date:
2021-10-25
Description:
A physics-based cloud identification scheme, originally developed for a machine learning forecast system, was applied to verify cloud location and coverage bias errors from two years of 6-hour forecasts. The routine identifies stable and unstable environments based on the potential for buoyant versus stable cloud formation. The efficacy of the scheme is documented by investigating its ability to identify cloud patterns and systematic forecast errors. Results showed stable cloud forecasts contained widespread, persistent negative cloud cover biases most likely associated with turbulent, radiative and microphysical feedback processes. In contrast, unstable clouds were better predicted despite being poorly resolved. This suggests that scale aliasing, while energetically problematic, results in less severe short-term cloud cover errors.This study also evaluated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) cloud base retrievals for their effectiveness at identifying regions of lower tropospheric cloud cover. Retrieved cloud base heights were sometimes too high with respect to their actual values in regions of deep-layered clouds, resulting in underestimates of the extent of low cloud cover in these areas. Sensitivity experiments indicate the most accurate cloud base estimates existed in regions with cloud tops at or below 8 km.
Print ISSN:
0027-0644
Electronic ISSN:
1520-0493
Topics:
Geography
,
Geosciences
,
Physics
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