ISSN:
1662-8985
Source:
Scientific.Net: Materials Science & Technology / Trans Tech Publications Archiv 1984-2008
Topics:
Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
Notes:
Uncertainty in design and simulation affects the quality of product directly during theprocess of MDO, which should be considered to help designers to make the design decisions,especially at conceptual design stage. In traditional approaches, this uncertainty is ignored in the hopethat it is not significant to the decision making. In this investigation, firstly, three main uncertainties inMDO of conceptual design are pointed out and carefully analyzed. Then, an innovative methodologyintegrating extract knowledge and probabilistic method to manage these uncertainties is presented.Considering practical application and eliminating the uncertainty in configuration, we propose apromising method combining Fuzzy c-means algorithm (FCM) and Rough Sets theory (RST) todeduce the configuration rule. Furthermore, probabilistic kriging model is utilized as anapproximation model to reduce global computational expense of complex product. Sensitivityanalysis (SA) is used to reduce uncertainty of inputs of simulation, and mean square error (MSE) isemployed to assess model error to reduce model uncertainty. Finally, the validity and necessity of thismethodology are demonstrated through the conceptual design of bulk carrier
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://www.tib-hannover.de/fulltexts/2011/0528/01/40/transtech_doi~10.4028%252Fwww.scientific.net%252FAMR.44-46.225.pdf
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