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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Mid-Holocene climate in Europe: what can we infer from PMIP model-data comparisons? (1999)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 15 (1999), S. 163-182 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Within the framework of the PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project), we have compared mid-Holocene climate simulations from 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with new pollen-based reconstructions of the European bioclimatic variables for winter and growing season temperatures as well as annual water budget changes. In winter, some models are able to simulate the reconstructed northeastern warming, due to an increased heat transport from the ocean, associated with a larger north-south pressure gradient over the northern Atlantic. Whereas most models are only able to simulate a strong summer warming, data indicate a shorter and/ or colder growing season in southern Europe and a longer and/or warmer growing season in northwestern Europe. The reconstructed change in annual water budget indicates drier conditions in northwestern Europe and wetter conditions in southern Europe. Some models simulate such moisture changes, due to more summer evaporation over Scandinavia during summer, and more autumn-winter-spring precipitation over southern Europe. To address the PMIP approximation of no change in ocean and land boundary conditions, we have performed short sensitivity experiments to surface boundary conditions (sea-surface-temperatures, vegetation) using one single model. The model-data disagreements over Europe are probably due to the local influence of the surrounding oceans which are not taken into account in the first PMIP simulations. We therefore stress the need for more mid-Holocene SST reconstructions and further analysis of pollen data in the Mediterranean region.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050275
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The climate of Europe 6000 years ago (1996)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1996), S. 1-9 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but 〉400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050148
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a quantitative reconstruction from pollen data (1998)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 14 (1998), S. 883-890 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Annual precipitation, July and January temperatures were reconstructed from a continuous Holocene pollen sequence from the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using the best modern analogues method. The reconstructions show a clear difference between the early and late Holocene: from ∼10 ka to ∼6.5 ka the climate was drier and warmer than during the period since 6.5 ka. The average value of annual precipitation was ∼870 mm until 6.5 ka, then rose to ∼940 mm. Between 10 ka and 6.5 ka January and July temperatures were about 4 °C higher than the present. Both temperatures show a marked decrease between 7 ka and 6 ka. After 6.5 ka July and January temperatures fluctuated between 21 and 23 °C, and 2.5 and 5 °C respectively. January temperatures show a period of intermediate values (∼3.5 °C) between 4 ka and 5.5 ka. The reconstructed climate values generally match palaeolimnological data from the same core, which show five intervals of low lake level during the Holocene. They are also consistent with regional-scale COHMAP simulated palaeoclimate that shows contrasting patterns of rainfall variation between the northwesternmost part of Africa and the intertropical band.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050262
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka (1996)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1996), S. 185-194 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Biome models allow the results of experiments with atmospheric general circulation models to be translated into global maps of potential natural vegetation. The use of biome models as a diagnostic tool for palaeoclimate simulations can yield maps that are directly comparable with palaeoecological (pollen and plant macrofossil) records provided these records are “biomized”, i.e. assigned to biomes in a consistent way. This article describes a method for the objective biomization of pollen samples based on fuzzy logic. Pollen types (taxa) are assigned to one or more plant functional types (PFTs), then affinity scores are calculated for each biome in turn based on its list of characteristic PFTs. The pollen sample is assigned to the biome to which it has the highest affinity, subject to a tie-breaking rule. Modern pollen data from surface samples, reflecting present vegetation across Europe, are used to validate the method. Pollen data from dated sediment cores are then used to reconstruct European vegetation patterns for 6 ka. The reconstruction shows systematic differences from present that are consistent with previous interpretations. The method has proved robust with respect to human impacts on vegetation, and provides a rational way to interpret combinations of pollen types that do not have present-day analogs. The method demands minimal prior information and is therefore equally suitable for use in other regions with richer floras, and/or lower densities of available modern and fossil pollen samples, than Europe.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00211617
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka (1996)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1996), S. 185-194 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Biome models allow the results of experiments with atmospheric general circulation models to be translated into global maps of potential natural vegetation. The use of biome models as a diagnostic tool for palaeoclimate simulations can yield maps that are directly comparable with palaeoecological (pollen and plant macrofossil) records provided these records are "biomized", i.e. assigned to biomes in a consistent way. This article describes a method for the objective biomization of pollen samples based on fuzzy logic. Pollen types (taxa) are assigned to one or more plant functional types (PFTs), then affinity scores are calculated for each biome in turn based on its list of characteristic PFTs. The pollen sample is assigned to the biome to which it has the highest affinity, subject to a tie-breaking rule. Modern pollen data from surface samples, reflecting present vegetation across Europe, are used to validate the method. Pollen data from dated sediment cores are then used to reconstruct European vegetation patterns for 6 ka. The reconstruction shows systematic differences from present that are consistent with previous interpretations. The method has proved robust with respect to human impacts on vegetation, and provides a rational way to interpret combinations of pollen types that do not have present-day analogs. The method demands minimal prior information and is therefore equally suitable for use in other regions with richer floras, and/or lower densities of available modern and fossil pollen samples, than Europe.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050102
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Temporal and spatial variations of terrestrial biomes and carbon storage since 13 000 yr BP in Europe: Reconstruction from pollen data and statistical models (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 375-390 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: BIOME ; pollen data ; carbon storage ; statistical model ; Europe
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Statistical models calibrated from field measurement data are used to reconstruct the past terrestrial carbon (C) storage from pollen data for the last 13 000 yr BP in Europe. The pollen-based climatic and biome reconstructions provide the input data for these statistical models, i.e., annual mean temperature, total annual precipitation, annual actual evapotranspiration, annual potential evapotranspiration and biome type with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° longitude/latitude. Our reconstructions indicate that the last 13 000 yr BP were characterized in Europe by variations of terrestrial biome and net primary productivity (NPP) at various temporal and spatial scales. For the considered region, our results also suggest that changes in climate have significantly altered the distribution of terrestrial biomes and affected the uptake of CO2 for NPP. However, these changes did not translate into significant C storage change in potential terrestrial biosphere during the Holocene. The largest decrease of terrestrial C storage (compared to modern levels) is found during the late-Glacial period mainly due to the persistence of ice sheets and the small extension of forest.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01182848
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  • 7
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    Similarity of vegetation dynamics during interglacial periods (2005)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2005-09-14
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 8
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    Cold and dry outbreaks in the eastern Mediterranean 3200 years ago (2019)
    Geological Society of America (GSA)
    In: Geology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈span〉Can climate affect societies? This question, of both past and present importance, is encapsulated by the major socioeconomic crisis that affected the Mediterranean 3200 yr ago. The demise of the core civilizations of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean during the Late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (Dark Ages) is still controversial because it raises the question of climate-change impacts on ancient societies. Although evidence for this climate shift has gradually gained currency, recent attempts to quantify its magnitude remain equivocal. Here we focus on the northern Levant (coastal Syria) where the economic, political, and cultural changes were particularly acute. We quantify past climate changes and find that mean annual temperatures attained anomalies of –2.3 ± 0.3 °C to –4.8 ± 0.4 °C compared to present-day conditions. Rainfall regimes displayed an important shift in seasonality, with a 40% decrease in winter precipitation. A 300 yr period of dry and cool climate started ~3200 yr ago and was coeval with deep social changes in the eastern Mediterranean. These “Little Ice Age”–type conditions affected harvests, leading to severe food shortages that probably aggravated the sociopolitical tensions. This crisis highlights the fragility of societies, both past and present, to major climate-change episodes and their broader consequences.〈/span〉
    Print ISSN: 0091-7613
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-2682
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society of America (GSA)
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  • 9
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    Cold and dry outbreaks in the eastern Mediterranean 3200 years ago (2019)
    Geological Society of America (GSA)
    In: Geology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Abstract〈/div〉Can climate affect societies? This question, of both past and present importance, is encapsulated by the major socioeconomic crisis that affected the Mediterranean 3200 yr ago. The demise of the core civilizations of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean during the Late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (Dark Ages) is still controversial because it raises the question of climate-change impacts on ancient societies. Although evidence for this climate shift has gradually gained currency, recent attempts to quantify its magnitude remain equivocal. Here we focus on the northern Levant (coastal Syria) where the economic, political, and cultural changes were particularly acute. We quantify past climate changes and find that mean annual temperatures attained anomalies of − 2.3 ± 0.3 °C to − 4.8 ± 0.4 °C compared to present-day conditions. Rainfall regimes displayed an important shift in seasonality, with a 40% decrease in winter precipitation. A 300 yr period of dry and cool climate started ∼3200 yr ago and was coeval with deep social changes in the eastern Mediterranean. These “Little Ice Age”–type conditions affected harvests, leading to severe food shortages that probably aggravated the sociopolitical tensions. This crisis highlights the fragility of societies, both past and present, to major climate-change episodes and their broader consequences.〈/span〉
    Print ISSN: 0091-7613
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-2682
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society of America (GSA)
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  • 10
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    Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-08-31
    Description: Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
    Keywords: Atmospheric Science, Ecology
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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