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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    an analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations (1999)
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK N 456-07-0015
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 22 S.
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
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    Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene (2015)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: Considering the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change drivers on plant physiology leads to a modest increase in simulated European forest transpiration in spite of the effects of CO2-induced stomatal closure. Nature Climate Change 5 579 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2614
    Print ISSN: 1758-678X
    Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 3
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    Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow (2014)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-10-31
    Description: Nature Geoscience 7, 796 (2014). doi:10.1038/ngeo2263 Authors: N. Gedney, C. Huntingford, G. P. Weedon, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher & P. M. Cox Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology as input data for a detailed land surface model, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.
    Print ISSN: 1752-0894
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-0908
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 4
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    Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution (2008)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2008-05-10
    Description: The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global, net primary productivity. The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern, especially as some general circulation models (GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty-first century. Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia, which was associated with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season (July-October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north-south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic (the 'Atlantic N-S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N-S gradient, provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model. Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Cox, Peter M -- Harris, Phil P -- Huntingford, Chris -- Betts, Richard A -- Collins, Matthew -- Jones, Chris D -- Jupp, Tim E -- Marengo, Jose A -- Nobre, Carlos A -- England -- Nature. 2008 May 8;453(7192):212-5. doi: 10.1038/nature06960.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18464740" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Aerosols/*analysis ; Atlantic Ocean ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Disasters/history/*statistics & numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/*statistics & numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Probability ; Rain ; Seasons ; South America ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 5
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    Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink (2009)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-04-28
    Description: Plant photosynthesis tends to increase with irradiance. However, recent theoretical and observational studies have demonstrated that photosynthesis is also more efficient under diffuse light conditions. Changes in cloud cover or atmospheric aerosol loadings, arising from either volcanic or anthropogenic emissions, alter both the total photosynthetically active radiation reaching the surface and the fraction of this radiation that is diffuse, with uncertain overall effects on global plant productivity and the land carbon sink. Here we estimate the impact of variations in diffuse fraction on the land carbon sink using a global model modified to account for the effects of variations in both direct and diffuse radiation on canopy photosynthesis. We estimate that variations in diffuse fraction, associated largely with the 'global dimming' period, enhanced the land carbon sink by approximately one-quarter between 1960 and 1999. However, under a climate mitigation scenario for the twenty-first century in which sulphate aerosols decline before atmospheric CO(2) is stabilized, this 'diffuse-radiation' fertilization effect declines rapidly to near zero by the end of the twenty-first century.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Mercado, Lina M -- Bellouin, Nicolas -- Sitch, Stephen -- Boucher, Olivier -- Huntingford, Chris -- Wild, Martin -- Cox, Peter M -- England -- Nature. 2009 Apr 23;458(7241):1014-7. doi: 10.1038/nature07949.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK. lmme@ceh.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19396143" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Aerosols/analysis/chemistry ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Darkness ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Photosynthesis/*radiation effects ; Plants/metabolism/*radiation effects ; Sulfates/metabolism ; *Sunlight ; Volcanic Eruptions
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 6
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    Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne (2009)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2009-05-02
    Description: Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Allen, Myles R -- Frame, David J -- Huntingford, Chris -- Jones, Chris D -- Lowe, Jason A -- Meinshausen, Malte -- Meinshausen, Nicolai -- England -- Nature. 2009 Apr 30;458(7242):1163-6. doi: 10.1038/nature08019.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19407800" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Benchmarking ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Human Activities/history ; Industry/history ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 7
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    Climate equity for all (2005)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2005-09-17
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Huntingford, Chris -- Gash, John -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2005 Sep 16;309(5742):1789.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16166480" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: *Climate ; *Developed Countries ; *Developing Countries ; Food ; Humans ; Hunger ; *International Cooperation ; *Research
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 8
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    No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2013-07-26
    Description: Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods, but there is considerable interest in determining whether global warming is increasing climate variability at present. This interest is motivated by an understanding that increased variability and resulting extreme weather conditions may be more difficult for society to adapt to than altered mean conditions. So far, however, in spite of suggestions of increased variability, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether it is occurring. Here we show that although fluctuations in annual temperature have indeed shown substantial geographical variation over the past few decades, the time-evolving standard deviation of globally averaged temperature anomalies has been stable. A feature of the changes has been a tendency for many regions of low variability to experience increases, which might contribute to the perception of increased climate volatility. The normalization of temperature anomalies creates the impression of larger relative overall increases, but our use of absolute values, which we argue is a more appropriate approach, reveals little change. Regionally, greater year-to-year changes recently occurred in much of North America and Europe. Many climate models predict that total variability will ultimately decrease under high greenhouse gas concentrations, possibly associated with reductions in sea-ice cover. Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Huntingford, Chris -- Jones, Philip D -- Livina, Valerie N -- Lenton, Timothy M -- Cox, Peter M -- England -- Nature. 2013 Aug 15;500(7462):327-30. doi: 10.1038/nature12310. Epub 2013 Jul 24.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK. chg@ceh.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23883935" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Global Warming ; Ice Cover ; Seasons ; *Temperature
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 9
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    Earth science: The timing of climate change (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2013-10-11
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Huntingford, Chris -- Mercado, Lina -- Post, Eric -- England -- Nature. 2013 Oct 10;502(7470):174-5. doi: 10.1038/502174a.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24108046" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Animals ; *Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 10
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    Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2013-02-08
    Description: The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30 degrees north to 30 degrees south, warming alone will release 53 +/- 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Cox, Peter M -- Pearson, David -- Booth, Ben B -- Friedlingstein, Pierre -- Huntingford, Chris -- Jones, Chris D -- Luke, Catherine M -- England -- Nature. 2013 Feb 21;494(7437):341-4. doi: 10.1038/nature11882. Epub 2013 Feb 6.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23389447" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; Uncertainty
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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