ALBERT

Description: We have developed an improved version of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional chemical transport model (TM) designed for accurate tracer transport simulations in the stratosphere, using a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ-θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain-following and isentropic parts switched smoothly around the tropopause. The air-ascending rate was derived from the effective heating rate and was used to simulate vertical motion in the isentropic part of the grid (above level 350 K), which was adjusted to fit to the observed age of the air in the stratosphere. Multi-annual simulations were conducted using the NIES TM to evaluate vertical profiles and dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4. Comparisons with balloon-borne observations over Sanriku (Japan) in 2000–2007 revealed that the tracer transport simulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are performed with accuracies of ~5% for CH4 and SF6, and ~1% for CO2 compared with the observed volume-mixing ratios. The simulated column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) were evaluated against daily ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) observations measured at twelve sites of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) (Bialystok, Bremen, Darwin, Garmisch, Izaña, Lamont, Lauder, Orleans, Park Falls, Sodankylä, Tsukuba, and Wollongong) between January 2009 and January 2011. The comparison shows the model's ability to reproduce the site-dependent seasonal cycles as observed by TCCON, with correlation coefficients typically on the order 0.8–0.9 and 0.4–0.8 for XCO2 and XCH4, respectively, and mean model biases of ±0.2% and ±0.5%, excluding Sodankylä, where strong biases are found. The ability of the model to capture the tracer total column mole fractions is strongly dependent on the model's ability to reproduce seasonal variations in tracer concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We found a marked difference in the model's ability to reproduce near-surface concentrations at sites located some distance from multiple emission sources and where high emissions play a notable role in the tracer's budget. Comparisons with aircraft observations over Surgut (West Siberia), in an area with high emissions of methane from wetlands, show contrasting model performance in the PBL and in the free troposphere. Thus, the PBL is another critical region for simulating the tracer total column mole fractions.

Description: A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer 222Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of 222Rn are evaluated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme in general is consistent with observed and modeled results.

Description: We present the application of a global carbon cycle modeling system to the estimation of monthly regional CO2 fluxes from the column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved from spectral observations made by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The regional flux estimates are to be publicly disseminated as the GOSAT Level 4 data product. The forward modeling components of the system include an atmospheric tracer transport model, an anthropogenic emissions inventory, a terrestrial biosphere exchange model, and an oceanic flux model. The atmospheric tracer transport was simulated using isentropic coordinates in the stratosphere and was tuned to reproduce the age of air. We used a fossil fuel emission inventory based on large point source data and observations of nighttime lights. The terrestrial biospheric model was optimized by fitting model parameters to observed atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle, net primary production data, and a biomass distribution map. The oceanic surface pCO2 distribution was estimated with a 4-D variational data assimilation system based on reanalyzed ocean currents. Monthly CO2 fluxes of 64 sub-continental regions, between June 2009 and May 2010, were estimated from GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 XCO2 retrievals (ver. 02.00) gridded to 5° × 5° cells and averaged on a monthly basis and monthly-mean GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data. Our result indicated that adding the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals to the GLOBALVIEW data in the flux estimation brings changes to fluxes of tropics and other remote regions where the surface-based data are sparse. The uncertainties of these remote fluxes were reduced by as much as 60% through such addition. Optimized fluxes estimated for many of these regions, were brought closer to the prior fluxes by the addition of the GOSAT retrievals. In most of the regions and seasons considered here, the estimated fluxes fell within the range of natural flux variabilities estimated with the component models.

Description: We present the application of an integrated global carbon cycle modeling system to the estimation of monthly regional CO2 fluxes from the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved from the spectral observations made by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The regional flux estimates are to be publicly disseminated as the GOSAT Level 4 data product. The forward modeling components of the system include an atmospheric tracer transport model, an anthropogenic emissions inventory, a terrestrial biosphere exchange model, and an oceanic flux model. The atmospheric tracer transport was simulated using isentropic coordinates in the stratosphere and was tuned to reproduce the age of air. We used a fossil fuel emission inventory based on large point source data and observations of nighttime lights. The terrestrial biospheric model was optimized by fitting model parameters to match observed atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle, net primary production data, and a biomass distribution map. The oceanic surface pCO2 distribution was estimated with a 4-D variational data assimilation system based on reanalyzed ocean currents. Monthly CO2 fluxes of 64 sub-continental regions, between June 2009 and May 2010, were estimated from the GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 XCO2 retrievals (ver. 02.00) gridded to 5° × 5° cells and averaged on a monthly basis and monthly-mean GLOBALVIEW-CO2 surface-based observations. Our result indicated that adding the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals to the GLOBALVIEW observations in the flux estimation would bring changes to fluxes of tropics and other remote regions where the surface-based observations are sparse. The uncertainty of these remote fluxes was reduced by as much as 60% through such addition. For many of these regions, optimized fluxes are brought closer to the prior fluxes by the addition of GOSAT data. For the most of the regions and seasons considered here, the estimated fluxes fell within the range of natural flux variability estimated with the component models.

Description: The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated, simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993-2012). The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes.Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA’s long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements - including high altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model-measurement correlation (r ≥ 0.7) and a low sensitivity to the choice of emission inventory, at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model-measurement agreement is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions and inter-model differences are also apparent, even when using the same inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve optimal agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2 Br2). In general, the models are able to reproduce well observations of CHBr3 and CH2 Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2 Br2) most elevated over the tropical West Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian Monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2 Br2 of 2.0 (1.2-2.5) ppt, ≫ 57% larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. However, transport-driven inter-annual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of a ±5%, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with ENSO in the East Pacific.

Description: We have developed an improved version of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional chemical transport model (TM) designed for accurate tracer transport simulations in the stratosphere, given the use of a hybrid sigma-isentropic (σ−θ) vertical coordinate that employs both terrain following and isentropic parts switched smoothly around the tropopause. The air-ascending rate was derived from the effective heating rate and was used to simulate vertical motion in the isentropic part of the grid (above level 350 K), which was adjusted to fit to the observed age of the air in the stratosphere. Multi-annual simulations were conducted using NIES TM to evaluate vertical profiles and dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4. Comparisons with balloon-borne observations over Sanriku (Japan) in 2000–2007 revealed that the tracer transport simulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are performed with accuracies of ~5% for CH4 and SF6, and ~1% for CO2 compared with the observed volume-mixing ratios. The simulated XCO2 and XCH4 were evaluated against daily ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) observations measured at twelve sites of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) (Bialystok, Bremen, Darwin, Garmisch, Izaña, Lamont, Lauder, Orleans, Park Falls, Sodankylä, Tsukuba, and Wollongong) between January 2009 and January 2011. The comparison shows the model's ability to reproduce the site-dependent seasonal cycles as observed by TCCON, with correlation coefficients typically on the order 0.8–0.9 and 0.4–0.8 for XCO2 and XCH4, respectively, and mean model biases of ±0.2% and ±0.5%, excluding Sodankylä, where strong biases are found. The capturing of tracer total column mole fractions is strongly dependent on the model's ability to reproduce seasonal variations in tracer concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). We found a marked difference in the model's ability to reproduce near-surface concentrations at sites located some distance from multiple emission sources and where high emissions play a notable role in the tracer's budget. Comparisons with aircraft observations over Surgut (West Siberia), in an area with high emissions of methane from wetlands, show contrasting model performance in the PBL and in the free troposphere. This is another instance where the representation of the PBL is critical in simulating the tracer total columns.

Description: The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is a network of ground-based Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) that record near-infrared (NIR) spectra of the Sun. From these spectra, accurate and precise observations of CO2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (denoted XCO2) are retrieved. TCCON FTS observations have previously been used to validate satellite estimations of XCO2; however, our knowledge of the short-term spatial and temporal variations in XCO2 surrounding the TCCON sites is limited. In this work, we use the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Eulerian three-dimensional transport model and the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) to determine the footprints of short-term variations in XCO2 observed by operational, past, future, and possible TCCON sites. We propose a footprint-based method for the colocation of satellite and TCCON XCO2 observations, and estimate the performance of the method using the NIES model and five GOSAT XCO2 product datasets. Comparison of the proposed approach with a standard geographic method shows higher number of colocation points and average bias reduction up to 0.15 ppm for a subset of 16 stations for the period from January 2010 to January 2014. Case studies of the Darwin and La Réunion sites reveal that when the footprint area is rather curved, non-uniform and significantly different from a geographical rectangular area, the differences between these approaches are more noticeable. This emphasizes that the colocation is sensitive to local meteorological conditions and flux distributions.

Description: A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer 222Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of 222Rn are validated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme can successfully reproduce deep cloud convection.

Description: We present the development of the Adjoint of the Global Eulerian–Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric (A-GELCA) model that consists of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) model as an Eulerian three-dimensional transport model (TM), and FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) as the Lagrangian plume diffusion model (LPDM). The tangent and adjoint components of the Eulerian model were constructed directly from the original NIES TM code using an automatic differentiation tool known as TAF (Transformation of Algorithms in Fortran; http://www.FastOpt.com), with additional manual pre- and post-processing aimed at improving the performance of the computing, including MPI (Message Passing Interface). As results, the adjoint of Eulerian model is discrete. Construction of the adjoint of the Lagrangian component did not require any code modification, as LPDMs are able to track a significant number of particles back in time and thereby calculate the sensitivity of observations to the neighboring emissions areas. Eulerian and Lagrangian adjoint components were coupled at the time boundary in the global domain.The results are verified using a series of test experiments. The forward simulation shown the coupled model is effective in reproducing the seasonal cycle and short-term variability of CO2 even in the case of multiple limiting factors, such as high uncertainty of fluxes and the low resolution of the Eulerian model. The adjoint model demonstrates the high accuracy compared to direct forward sensitivity calculations and fast performance. The developed adjoint of the coupled model combines the flux conservation and stability of an Eulerian discrete adjoint formulation with the flexibility, accuracy, and high resolution of a Lagrangian backward trajectory formulation.

Description: The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r  ≥  0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt,  ∼  57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.