Publication Date:
2015-09-17
Description:
Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542-753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bhatt, S -- Weiss, D J -- Cameron, E -- Bisanzio, D -- Mappin, B -- Dalrymple, U -- Battle, K E -- Moyes, C L -- Henry, A -- Eckhoff, P A -- Wenger, E A -- Briet, O -- Penny, M A -- Smith, T A -- Bennett, A -- Yukich, J -- Eisele, T P -- Griffin, J T -- Fergus, C A -- Lynch, M -- Lindgren, F -- Cohen, J M -- Murray, C L J -- Smith, D L -- Hay, S I -- Cibulskis, R E -- Gething, P W -- 095066/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom -- G1002284/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom -- England -- Nature. 2015 Oct 8;526(7572):207-11. doi: 10.1038/nature15535. Epub 2015 Sep 16.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. ; Institute for Disease Modeling, Intellectual Ventures, 1555 132nd Avenue NE, Bellevue, Washington 98005, USA. ; Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4002 Basel, Switzerland. ; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4001 Basel, Switzerland. ; Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California San Francisco, 500 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, California 94143, USA. ; Center for Applied Malaria Research and Evaluation, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1440 Canal Street, Suite 2200 New Orleans, Louisiana 70112, USA. ; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. ; Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. ; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK. ; Clinton Health Access Initiative, Boston, Massachusetts 02127, USA. ; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98121, USA. ; Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, Maryland 20850, USA. ; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-2220, USA. ; Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26375008" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Print ISSN:
0028-0836
Electronic ISSN:
1476-4687
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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