Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
In this study, we compute the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighboring faults.
Following a methodology developed in the last decade, we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures, based on a time-dependent renewal model. Then a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. We apply this method to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Central and Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. This study provides the opportunity of reviewing the problems connected with the estimate of the parameters of a renewal model in case of characteristic earthquakes characterized by return times longer than the time spanned by the available catalogues and the applicability of the concept of characteristic earthquake itself. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.
Description:
Published
Description:
B08313
Description:
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Description:
3.2. Tettonica attiva
Description:
4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
Stress interaction, occurrence probability, characteristic earthquakes
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01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts
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04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
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04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones
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04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
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04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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