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  • Campi Flegrei caldera  (3)
  • Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration  (3)
  • *Biodiversity  (2)
  • *Droughts
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2009-03-07
    Description: Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Phillips, Oliver L -- Aragao, Luiz E O C -- Lewis, Simon L -- Fisher, Joshua B -- Lloyd, Jon -- Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela -- Malhi, Yadvinder -- Monteagudo, Abel -- Peacock, Julie -- Quesada, Carlos A -- van der Heijden, Geertje -- Almeida, Samuel -- Amaral, Ieda -- Arroyo, Luzmila -- Aymard, Gerardo -- Baker, Tim R -- Banki, Olaf -- Blanc, Lilian -- Bonal, Damien -- Brando, Paulo -- Chave, Jerome -- de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves -- Cardozo, Nallaret Davila -- Czimczik, Claudia I -- Feldpausch, Ted R -- Freitas, Maria Aparecida -- Gloor, Emanuel -- Higuchi, Niro -- Jimenez, Eliana -- Lloyd, Gareth -- Meir, Patrick -- Mendoza, Casimiro -- Morel, Alexandra -- Neill, David A -- Nepstad, Daniel -- Patino, Sandra -- Penuela, Maria Cristina -- Prieto, Adriana -- Ramirez, Fredy -- Schwarz, Michael -- Silva, Javier -- Silveira, Marcos -- Thomas, Anne Sota -- Steege, Hans Ter -- Stropp, Juliana -- Vasquez, Rodolfo -- Zelazowski, Przemyslaw -- Alvarez Davila, Esteban -- Andelman, Sandy -- Andrade, Ana -- Chao, Kuo-Jung -- Erwin, Terry -- Di Fiore, Anthony -- Honorio C, Euridice -- Keeling, Helen -- Killeen, Tim J -- Laurance, William F -- Pena Cruz, Antonio -- Pitman, Nigel C A -- Nunez Vargas, Percy -- Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma -- Rudas, Agustin -- Salamao, Rafael -- Silva, Natalino -- Terborgh, John -- Torres-Lezama, Armando -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2009 Mar 6;323(5919):1344-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1164033.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. o.phillips@leeds.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19265020" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atmosphere ; *Biomass ; Brazil ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; South America ; *Trees/growth & development ; Tropical Climate
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-10-19
    Description: The vast extent of the Amazon Basin has historically restricted the study of its tree communities to the local and regional scales. Here, we provide empirical data on the commonness, rarity, and richness of lowland tree species across the entire Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield (Amazonia), collected in 1170 tree plots in all major forest types. Extrapolations suggest that Amazonia harbors roughly 16,000 tree species, of which just 227 (1.4%) account for half of all trees. Most of these are habitat specialists and only dominant in one or two regions of the basin. We discuss some implications of the finding that a small group of species--less diverse than the North American tree flora--accounts for half of the world's most diverse tree community.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉ter Steege, Hans -- Pitman, Nigel C A -- Sabatier, Daniel -- Baraloto, Christopher -- Salomao, Rafael P -- Guevara, Juan Ernesto -- Phillips, Oliver L -- Castilho, Carolina V -- Magnusson, William E -- Molino, Jean-Francois -- Monteagudo, Abel -- Nunez Vargas, Percy -- Montero, Juan Carlos -- Feldpausch, Ted R -- Coronado, Euridice N Honorio -- Killeen, Tim J -- Mostacedo, Bonifacio -- Vasquez, Rodolfo -- Assis, Rafael L -- Terborgh, John -- Wittmann, Florian -- Andrade, Ana -- Laurance, William F -- Laurance, Susan G W -- Marimon, Beatriz S -- Marimon, Ben-Hur Jr -- Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia -- Amaral, Ieda Leao -- Brienen, Roel -- Castellanos, Hernan -- Cardenas Lopez, Dairon -- Duivenvoorden, Joost F -- Mogollon, Hugo F -- Matos, Francisca Dionizia de Almeida -- Davila, Nallarett -- Garcia-Villacorta, Roosevelt -- Stevenson Diaz, Pablo Roberto -- Costa, Flavia -- Emilio, Thaise -- Levis, Carolina -- Schietti, Juliana -- Souza, Priscila -- Alonso, Alfonso -- Dallmeier, Francisco -- Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque -- Fernandez Piedade, Maria Teresa -- Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro -- Arroyo, Luzmila -- Gribel, Rogerio -- Fine, Paul V A -- Peres, Carlos A -- Toledo, Marisol -- Aymard C, Gerardo A -- Baker, Tim R -- Ceron, Carlos -- Engel, Julien -- Henkel, Terry W -- Maas, Paul -- Petronelli, Pascal -- Stropp, Juliana -- Zartman, Charles Eugene -- Daly, Doug -- Neill, David -- Silveira, Marcos -- Paredes, Marcos Rios -- Chave, Jerome -- Lima Filho, Diogenes de Andrade -- Jorgensen, Peter Moller -- Fuentes, Alfredo -- Schongart, Jochen -- Cornejo Valverde, Fernando -- Di Fiore, Anthony -- Jimenez, Eliana M -- Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina -- Phillips, Juan Fernando -- Rivas, Gonzalo -- van Andel, Tinde R -- von Hildebrand, Patricio -- Hoffman, Bruce -- Zent, Eglee L -- Malhi, Yadvinder -- Prieto, Adriana -- Rudas, Agustin -- Ruschell, Ademir R -- Silva, Natalino -- Vos, Vincent -- Zent, Stanford -- Oliveira, Alexandre A -- Schutz, Angela Cano -- Gonzales, Therany -- Trindade Nascimento, Marcelo -- Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma -- Sierra, Rodrigo -- Tirado, Milton -- Umana Medina, Maria Natalia -- van der Heijden, Geertje -- Vela, Cesar I A -- Vilanova Torre, Emilio -- Vriesendorp, Corine -- Wang, Ophelia -- Young, Kenneth R -- Baider, Claudia -- Balslev, Henrik -- Ferreira, Cid -- Mesones, Italo -- Torres-Lezama, Armando -- Urrego Giraldo, Ligia Estela -- Zagt, Roderick -- Alexiades, Miguel N -- Hernandez, Lionel -- Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau -- Milliken, William -- Palacios Cuenca, Walter -- Pauletto, Daniela -- Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis -- Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis -- Dexter, Kyle G -- Feeley, Ken -- Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela -- Silman, Miles R -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2013 Oct 18;342(6156):1243092. doi: 10.1126/science.1243092.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24136971" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: *Biodiversity ; Models, Biological ; Population ; *Rivers ; South America ; Trees/*classification/*physiology
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2012-07-27
    Description: The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve 'health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Laurance, William F -- Useche, D Carolina -- Rendeiro, Julio -- Kalka, Margareta -- Bradshaw, Corey J A -- Sloan, Sean P -- Laurance, Susan G -- Campbell, Mason -- Abernethy, Kate -- Alvarez, Patricia -- Arroyo-Rodriguez, Victor -- Ashton, Peter -- Benitez-Malvido, Julieta -- Blom, Allard -- Bobo, Kadiri S -- Cannon, Charles H -- Cao, Min -- Carroll, Richard -- Chapman, Colin -- Coates, Rosamond -- Cords, Marina -- Danielsen, Finn -- De Dijn, Bart -- Dinerstein, Eric -- Donnelly, Maureen A -- Edwards, David -- Edwards, Felicity -- Farwig, Nina -- Fashing, Peter -- Forget, Pierre-Michel -- Foster, Mercedes -- Gale, George -- Harris, David -- Harrison, Rhett -- Hart, John -- Karpanty, Sarah -- Kress, W John -- Krishnaswamy, Jagdish -- Logsdon, Willis -- Lovett, Jon -- Magnusson, William -- Maisels, Fiona -- Marshall, Andrew R -- McClearn, Deedra -- Mudappa, Divya -- Nielsen, Martin R -- Pearson, Richard -- Pitman, Nigel -- van der Ploeg, Jan -- Plumptre, Andrew -- Poulsen, John -- Quesada, Mauricio -- Rainey, Hugo -- Robinson, Douglas -- Roetgers, Christiane -- Rovero, Francesco -- Scatena, Frederick -- Schulze, Christian -- Sheil, Douglas -- Struhsaker, Thomas -- Terborgh, John -- Thomas, Duncan -- Timm, Robert -- Urbina-Cardona, J Nicolas -- Vasudevan, Karthikeyan -- Wright, S Joseph -- Arias-G, Juan Carlos -- Arroyo, Luzmila -- Ashton, Mark -- Auzel, Philippe -- Babaasa, Dennis -- Babweteera, Fred -- Baker, Patrick -- Banki, Olaf -- Bass, Margot -- Bila-Isia, Inogwabini -- Blake, Stephen -- Brockelman, Warren -- Brokaw, Nicholas -- Bruhl, Carsten A -- Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh -- Chao, Jung-Tai -- Chave, Jerome -- Chellam, Ravi -- Clark, Connie J -- Clavijo, Jose -- Congdon, Robert -- Corlett, Richard -- Dattaraja, H S -- Dave, Chittaranjan -- Davies, Glyn -- Beisiegel, Beatriz de Mello -- da Silva, Rosa de Nazare Paes -- Di Fiore, Anthony -- Diesmos, Arvin -- Dirzo, Rodolfo -- Doran-Sheehy, Diane -- Eaton, Mitchell -- Emmons, Louise -- Estrada, Alejandro -- Ewango, Corneille -- Fedigan, Linda -- Feer, Francois -- Fruth, Barbara -- Willis, Jacalyn Giacalone -- Goodale, Uromi -- Goodman, Steven -- Guix, Juan C -- Guthiga, Paul -- Haber, William -- Hamer, Keith -- Herbinger, Ilka -- Hill, Jane -- Huang, Zhongliang -- Sun, I Fang -- Ickes, Kalan -- Itoh, Akira -- Ivanauskas, Natalia -- Jackes, Betsy -- Janovec, John -- Janzen, Daniel -- Jiangming, Mo -- Jin, Chen -- Jones, Trevor -- Justiniano, Hermes -- Kalko, Elisabeth -- Kasangaki, Aventino -- Killeen, Timothy -- King, Hen-biau -- Klop, Erik -- Knott, Cheryl -- Kone, Inza -- Kudavidanage, Enoka -- Ribeiro, Jose Lahoz da Silva -- Lattke, John -- Laval, Richard -- Lawton, Robert -- Leal, Miguel -- Leighton, Mark -- Lentino, Miguel -- Leonel, Cristiane -- Lindsell, Jeremy -- Ling-Ling, Lee -- Linsenmair, K Eduard -- Losos, Elizabeth -- Lugo, Ariel -- Lwanga, Jeremiah -- Mack, Andrew L -- Martins, Marlucia -- McGraw, W Scott -- McNab, Roan -- Montag, Luciano -- Thompson, Jo Myers -- Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob -- Nakagawa, Michiko -- Nepal, Sanjay -- Norconk, Marilyn -- Novotny, Vojtech -- O'Donnell, Sean -- Opiang, Muse -- Ouboter, Paul -- Parker, Kenneth -- Parthasarathy, N -- Pisciotta, Katia -- Prawiradilaga, Dewi -- Pringle, Catherine -- Rajathurai, Subaraj -- Reichard, Ulrich -- Reinartz, Gay -- Renton, Katherine -- Reynolds, Glen -- Reynolds, Vernon -- Riley, Erin -- Rodel, Mark-Oliver -- Rothman, Jessica -- Round, Philip -- Sakai, Shoko -- Sanaiotti, Tania -- Savini, Tommaso -- Schaab, Gertrud -- Seidensticker, John -- Siaka, Alhaji -- Silman, Miles R -- Smith, Thomas B -- de Almeida, Samuel Soares -- Sodhi, Navjot -- Stanford, Craig -- Stewart, Kristine -- Stokes, Emma -- Stoner, Kathryn E -- Sukumar, Raman -- Surbeck, Martin -- Tobler, Mathias -- Tscharntke, Teja -- Turkalo, Andrea -- Umapathy, Govindaswamy -- van Weerd, Merlijn -- Rivera, Jorge Vega -- Venkataraman, Meena -- Venn, Linda -- Verea, Carlos -- de Castilho, Carolina Volkmer -- Waltert, Matthias -- Wang, Benjamin -- Watts, David -- Weber, William -- West, Paige -- Whitacre, David -- Whitney, Ken -- Wilkie, David -- Williams, Stephen -- Wright, Debra D -- Wright, Patricia -- Xiankai, Lu -- Yonzon, Pralad -- Zamzani, Franky -- England -- Nature. 2012 Sep 13;489(7415):290-4. doi: 10.1038/nature11318.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia. bill.laurance@jcu.edu.au〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22832582" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Agriculture/statistics & numerical data ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*statistics & numerical data ; Data Collection ; Ecology/statistics & numerical data ; Endangered Species/*statistics & numerical data ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/statistics & numerical data ; Fires/statistics & numerical data ; Forestry/statistics & numerical data ; Interviews as Topic ; Mining/statistics & numerical data ; Population Growth ; Rain ; Reproducibility of Results ; Research Personnel ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; *Tropical Climate
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-06-11
    Description: The science capabilities and features of an innovative and revolutionary approach to remote sensing imaging systems, aimed at increasing the return on future space science missions many fold, are described. Our concept, called Multiple Instrument Distributed Aperture Sensor (MIDAS), provides a large-aperture, wide-field, diffraction-limited telescope at a fraction of the cost, mass and volume of conventional telescopes, by integrating optical interferometry technologies into a mature multiple aperture array concept that addresses one of the highest needs for advancing future planetary science remote sensing.
    Keywords: Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
    Type: Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Outer Solar System; LPI-Contrib-1197
    Format: text
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Cassini and Huygens have made exciting discoveries at Titan and Enceladus, and at the same time made us aware of how little we understand about these bodies. For example, the source, and/or recycling mechanism, of methane in Titan's atmosphere is still puzzling. Indeed, river beds (mostly dry) and lakes have been spotted, and occasional clouds have been seen, but the physics to explain the observations is still mostly lacking, since our "image" of Titan is still sketchy and quite incomplete. Enceladus, only -500 km in extent, is even more puzzling, with its fiery plumes of vapor, dust and ice emanating from its south polar region, "feeding" Saturn's E ring. Long term variability of magnetospheric plasma, neutral gas, E-ring ice grain density, radio emissions, and corotation of Saturn's planetary magnetic field in response to Enceladus plume activity are of great interest for Saturn system science. Both Titan and Enceladus are bodies of considerable astrobiological interest in view of high organic abundances at Titan and potential subsurface liquid water at Enceladus. We propose to develop a new mission to Titan and Enceladus, the Titan Orbiter Aerorover Mission with Enceladus Science (TOAMES), to address these questions using novel new technologies. TOAMES is a multi-faceted mission that starts with orbit insertion around Saturn using aerobraking with Titan's extended atmosphere. We then have an orbital tour around Saturn (for 1-2 years) and close encounters with Enceladus, before it goes into orbit around Titan (via aerocapture). During the early reconnaissance phase around Titan, perhaps 6 months long, the orbiter will use altimetry, radio science and remote sensing instruments to measure Titan's global topography, subsurface structure and atmospheric winds. This information will be used to determine where and when to release the Aerorover, so that it can navigate safely around Titan and identify prime sites for surface sampling and analysis. In situ instruments will sample the upper atmosphere which may provide the seed population for the complex organic chemistry on the surface. The Aerorover will probably use a "hot air" Montgolfier balloon concept using the waste heat from the MMRTG 1-2 kwatts. New technologies will need to be developed and miniaturization will be required to maintain functionality while controlling mass, power and cost. Duty cycling will be used. The Aerorover will have all the instruments needed to sample Titan's atmosphere and surface with possible methane lakes-rivers. It will e.g., use multi-spectral imagers and for last 6 months of mission, balloon payload will land on surface at predetermined site to take core samples of the surface and use seismometers to help probe the interior. All remote (and active) sensors on the orbiter will share a - 1 meter telescope, called MIDAS (Multiple Instrument Distributed Aperture Sensor). MIDAS observations in stable orbit at Titan can provide full global maps of Titan's surface and could additionally provide long term observations of the Saturn system including Enceladus for extended mission phases over many years, potentially for decades. Experience from the Hubble Space Telescope has shown strong public interest and commitment to exciting generational missions.
    Keywords: Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
    Type: EPSC2007-A-00429 , European Planetary (Europlanet) Science Congress 2007; Aug 20, 2007 - Aug 24, 2007; Potsdam; Germany
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-08-17
    Description: The shergottite basalts, meteorites of Martian origin, contain rare small grains (approx. 10-100 microns diam.) of kaersutite, a Ca-amphibole rich in Al and Ti. Kaersutites have been used to estimate the water content of shergottites and the Martian mantle; however, questions remain about the original water content of the amphiboles and if they formed from magma. We investigated the petrographic settings of amphiboles in two shergottites and confirm that these amphiboles occur only in multiphase inclusions in pyroxene. In fact, kaersutite is found only in pigeonite. This suggests that the occurrence of amphibole is controlled in part by the composition of its host phase. Crystallization of host (cognate) pigeonite from a magmatic inclusion will enrich the remaining melt in Ca, Al, and Ti, supporting formation of kaersutite.
    Keywords: Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
    Type: Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Martian Meteorites: Petrology; LPI-Contrib-1197
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-10-21
    Description: In this study, we use a doubly stochastic model to develop a short-term eruption forecasting method based on precursory signals. The method enhances the Failure Forecast Method (FFM) equation, which represents the potential cascading of signals leading to failure. The reliability of such forecasts is affected by uncertainty in data and volcanic system behavior and, sometimes, a classical approach poorly predicts the time of failure. To address this, we introduce stochastic noise into the original ordinary differential equation, converting it into a stochastic differential equation, and systematically characterize the uncertainty. Embedding noise in the model can enable us to have greater forecasting skill by focusing on averages and moments. In our model, the prediction is thus perturbed inside a range that can be tuned, producing probabilistic forecasts. Furthermore, our doubly stochastic formulation is particularly powerful in that it provides a complete posterior probability distribution, allowing users to determine a worst-case scenario with a specified level of confidence. We verify the new method on simple historical datasets of precursory signals already studied with the classical FFM. The results show the increased forecasting skill of our doubly stochastic formulation. We then present a preliminary application of the method to more recent and complex monitoring signals.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco (CA)
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: failure forecast method ; Campi Flegrei caldera
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-10-21
    Description: We present two models using monitoring data in the production of volcanic eruption forecasts. The first model enhances the well-established failure forecast method introducing an SDE in its formulation. In particular, we developed new method for performing short-term eruption timing probability forecasts, when the eruption onset is well represented by a model of a significant rupture of materials. The method enhances the well-known failure forecast method equation. We allow random excursions from the classical solutions. This provides probabilistic forecasts instead of deterministic predictions, giving the user critical insight into a range of failure or eruption dates. Using the new method, we describe an assessment of failure time on present-day unrest signals at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) using either seismic count and ground deformation data. The new formulation enables the estimation on decade-long time windows of data, locally including the effects of variable dynamics. The second model establishes a simple method to update prior vent opening spatial maps. The prior reproduces the two-dimensional distribution of past vent distribution with a Gaussian Field. The likelihood relies on a one-dimensional variable characterizing the chance of material failure locally, based, for instance, on the horizontal ground deformation. In other terms, we introduce a new framework for performing short-term eruption spatial forecasts by assimilating monitoring signals into a prior (“background”) vent opening map. To describe the new approach, first we summarize the uncertainty affecting a vent opening map pdf of Campi Flegrei by defining an appropriate Gaussian random field that replicates it. Then we define a new interpolation method based on multiple points of central symmetry, and we apply it on discrete GPS data. Finally, we describe an application of the Bayes’ theorem that combines the prior vent opening map and the data-based likelihood product-wise. We provide examples based on either seismic count and interpolated ground deformation data collected in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: failure forecast method ; Campi Flegrei caldera
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-11-09
    Description: We present two models using precursory information in the production of volcanic eruption forecasts. The first model enhances the well-established failure forecast method introducing an SDE in its formulation. The second model establishes a simple method to update prior spatial maps. The prior reproduce the two-dimensional distribution of past activity with a Gaussian Field. The likelihood relies on a one-dimensional variable characterizing the chance of material failure locally, based on the horizontal ground deformation.
    Description: Published
    Description: Valencia
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: Campi Flegrei caldera ; eruption forecating
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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