ALBERT

Description: Capsular polysaccharides are the primary antigenic components involved in protective immunity against encapsulated bacterial pathogens. Although immunization of adolescents and adults with polysaccharide antigens has reduced pathogen disease burden, pure polysaccharide vaccines have proved ineffective at conferring protective immunity to infants and the elderly, age cohorts that are deficient in...

Description: Amazonian rain forest-savanna boundaries are highly sensitive to climatic change and may also play an important role in rain forest speciation. However, their dynamics over millennial time scales are poorly understood. Here, we present late Quaternary pollen records from the southern margin of Amazonia, which show that the humid evergreen rain forests of eastern Bolivia have been expanding southward over the past 3000 years and that their present-day limit represents the southernmost extent of Amazonian rain forest over at least the past 50,000 years. This rain forest expansion is attributed to increased seasonal latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which can in turn be explained by Milankovitch astronomic forcing.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Mayle, F E -- Burbridge, R -- Killeen, T J -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2000 Dec 22;290(5500):2291-4.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK. fem1@leicester.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11125139" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Phillips, Oliver L -- Aragao, Luiz E O C -- Lewis, Simon L -- Fisher, Joshua B -- Lloyd, Jon -- Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela -- Malhi, Yadvinder -- Monteagudo, Abel -- Peacock, Julie -- Quesada, Carlos A -- van der Heijden, Geertje -- Almeida, Samuel -- Amaral, Ieda -- Arroyo, Luzmila -- Aymard, Gerardo -- Baker, Tim R -- Banki, Olaf -- Blanc, Lilian -- Bonal, Damien -- Brando, Paulo -- Chave, Jerome -- de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves -- Cardozo, Nallaret Davila -- Czimczik, Claudia I -- Feldpausch, Ted R -- Freitas, Maria Aparecida -- Gloor, Emanuel -- Higuchi, Niro -- Jimenez, Eliana -- Lloyd, Gareth -- Meir, Patrick -- Mendoza, Casimiro -- Morel, Alexandra -- Neill, David A -- Nepstad, Daniel -- Patino, Sandra -- Penuela, Maria Cristina -- Prieto, Adriana -- Ramirez, Fredy -- Schwarz, Michael -- Silva, Javier -- Silveira, Marcos -- Thomas, Anne Sota -- Steege, Hans Ter -- Stropp, Juliana -- Vasquez, Rodolfo -- Zelazowski, Przemyslaw -- Alvarez Davila, Esteban -- Andelman, Sandy -- Andrade, Ana -- Chao, Kuo-Jung -- Erwin, Terry -- Di Fiore, Anthony -- Honorio C, Euridice -- Keeling, Helen -- Killeen, Tim J -- Laurance, William F -- Pena Cruz, Antonio -- Pitman, Nigel C A -- Nunez Vargas, Percy -- Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma -- Rudas, Agustin -- Salamao, Rafael -- Silva, Natalino -- Terborgh, John -- Torres-Lezama, Armando -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2009 Mar 6;323(5919):1344-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1164033.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Ecology and Global Change, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. o.phillips@leeds.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19265020" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: The vast extent of the Amazon Basin has historically restricted the study of its tree communities to the local and regional scales. Here, we provide empirical data on the commonness, rarity, and richness of lowland tree species across the entire Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield (Amazonia), collected in 1170 tree plots in all major forest types. Extrapolations suggest that Amazonia harbors roughly 16,000 tree species, of which just 227 (1.4%) account for half of all trees. Most of these are habitat specialists and only dominant in one or two regions of the basin. We discuss some implications of the finding that a small group of species--less diverse than the North American tree flora--accounts for half of the world's most diverse tree community.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉ter Steege, Hans -- Pitman, Nigel C A -- Sabatier, Daniel -- Baraloto, Christopher -- Salomao, Rafael P -- Guevara, Juan Ernesto -- Phillips, Oliver L -- Castilho, Carolina V -- Magnusson, William E -- Molino, Jean-Francois -- Monteagudo, Abel -- Nunez Vargas, Percy -- Montero, Juan Carlos -- Feldpausch, Ted R -- Coronado, Euridice N Honorio -- Killeen, Tim J -- Mostacedo, Bonifacio -- Vasquez, Rodolfo -- Assis, Rafael L -- Terborgh, John -- Wittmann, Florian -- Andrade, Ana -- Laurance, William F -- Laurance, Susan G W -- Marimon, Beatriz S -- Marimon, Ben-Hur Jr -- Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia -- Amaral, Ieda Leao -- Brienen, Roel -- Castellanos, Hernan -- Cardenas Lopez, Dairon -- Duivenvoorden, Joost F -- Mogollon, Hugo F -- Matos, Francisca Dionizia de Almeida -- Davila, Nallarett -- Garcia-Villacorta, Roosevelt -- Stevenson Diaz, Pablo Roberto -- Costa, Flavia -- Emilio, Thaise -- Levis, Carolina -- Schietti, Juliana -- Souza, Priscila -- Alonso, Alfonso -- Dallmeier, Francisco -- Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque -- Fernandez Piedade, Maria Teresa -- Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro -- Arroyo, Luzmila -- Gribel, Rogerio -- Fine, Paul V A -- Peres, Carlos A -- Toledo, Marisol -- Aymard C, Gerardo A -- Baker, Tim R -- Ceron, Carlos -- Engel, Julien -- Henkel, Terry W -- Maas, Paul -- Petronelli, Pascal -- Stropp, Juliana -- Zartman, Charles Eugene -- Daly, Doug -- Neill, David -- Silveira, Marcos -- Paredes, Marcos Rios -- Chave, Jerome -- Lima Filho, Diogenes de Andrade -- Jorgensen, Peter Moller -- Fuentes, Alfredo -- Schongart, Jochen -- Cornejo Valverde, Fernando -- Di Fiore, Anthony -- Jimenez, Eliana M -- Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina -- Phillips, Juan Fernando -- Rivas, Gonzalo -- van Andel, Tinde R -- von Hildebrand, Patricio -- Hoffman, Bruce -- Zent, Eglee L -- Malhi, Yadvinder -- Prieto, Adriana -- Rudas, Agustin -- Ruschell, Ademir R -- Silva, Natalino -- Vos, Vincent -- Zent, Stanford -- Oliveira, Alexandre A -- Schutz, Angela Cano -- Gonzales, Therany -- Trindade Nascimento, Marcelo -- Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma -- Sierra, Rodrigo -- Tirado, Milton -- Umana Medina, Maria Natalia -- van der Heijden, Geertje -- Vela, Cesar I A -- Vilanova Torre, Emilio -- Vriesendorp, Corine -- Wang, Ophelia -- Young, Kenneth R -- Baider, Claudia -- Balslev, Henrik -- Ferreira, Cid -- Mesones, Italo -- Torres-Lezama, Armando -- Urrego Giraldo, Ligia Estela -- Zagt, Roderick -- Alexiades, Miguel N -- Hernandez, Lionel -- Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau -- Milliken, William -- Palacios Cuenca, Walter -- Pauletto, Daniela -- Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis -- Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis -- Dexter, Kyle G -- Feeley, Ken -- Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela -- Silman, Miles R -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2013 Oct 18;342(6156):1243092. doi: 10.1126/science.1243092.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24136971" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: Understanding the processes that determine aboveground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity (woody NPP) and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size-structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influence AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates, and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP, and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Malhi, Yadvinder -- Roberts, J Timmons -- Betts, Richard A -- Killeen, Timothy J -- Li, Wenhong -- Nobre, Carlos A -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2008 Jan 11;319(5860):169-72. Epub 2007 Nov 29.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18048654" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Brienen, R J W -- Phillips, O L -- Feldpausch, T R -- Gloor, E -- Baker, T R -- Lloyd, J -- Lopez-Gonzalez, G -- Monteagudo-Mendoza, A -- Malhi, Y -- Lewis, S L -- Vasquez Martinez, R -- Alexiades, M -- Alvarez Davila, E -- Alvarez-Loayza, P -- Andrade, A -- Aragao, L E O C -- Araujo-Murakami, A -- Arets, E J M M -- Arroyo, L -- Aymard C, G A -- Banki, O S -- Baraloto, C -- Barroso, J -- Bonal, D -- Boot, R G A -- Camargo, J L C -- Castilho, C V -- Chama, V -- Chao, K J -- Chave, J -- Comiskey, J A -- Cornejo Valverde, F -- da Costa, L -- de Oliveira, E A -- Di Fiore, A -- Erwin, T L -- Fauset, S -- Forsthofer, M -- Galbraith, D R -- Grahame, E S -- Groot, N -- Herault, B -- Higuchi, N -- Honorio Coronado, E N -- Keeling, H -- Killeen, T J -- Laurance, W F -- Laurance, S -- Licona, J -- Magnussen, W E -- Marimon, B S -- Marimon-Junior, B H -- Mendoza, C -- Neill, D A -- Nogueira, E M -- Nunez, P -- Pallqui Camacho, N C -- Parada, A -- Pardo-Molina, G -- Peacock, J -- Pena-Claros, M -- Pickavance, G C -- Pitman, N C A -- Poorter, L -- Prieto, A -- Quesada, C A -- Ramirez, F -- Ramirez-Angulo, H -- Restrepo, Z -- Roopsind, A -- Rudas, A -- Salomao, R P -- Schwarz, M -- Silva, N -- Silva-Espejo, J E -- Silveira, M -- Stropp, J -- Talbot, J -- ter Steege, H -- Teran-Aguilar, J -- Terborgh, J -- Thomas-Caesar, R -- Toledo, M -- Torello-Raventos, M -- Umetsu, R K -- van der Heijden, G M F -- van der Hout, P -- Guimaraes Vieira, I C -- Vieira, S A -- Vilanova, E -- Vos, V A -- Zagt, R J -- England -- Nature. 2015 Mar 19;519(7543):344-8. doi: 10.1038/nature14283.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. ; 1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK. ; 1] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK. [2] School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, 4870 Queenland, Australia. ; Jardin Botanico de Missouri, Prolongacion Bolognesi Mz.e, Lote 6, Oxapampa, Pasco, Peru. ; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QK, UK. ; 1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Department of Geography, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK. ; School of Anthropology and Conservation, Marlowe Building, University of Kent, Canterbury CT1 3EH, UK. ; Servicios Ecosistemicos y Cambio Climatico, Jardin Botanico de Medellin, Calle 73 no. 51 D-14, C.P. 050010, Medellin, Colombia. ; Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Box 90381, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA. ; Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragment Project (INPA &STRI), C.P. 478, Manaus AM 69011-970, Brazil. ; 1] Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK. [2] National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. Dos Astronautas, 1758, Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo 12227-010, Brazil. ; Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Casilla 2489, Av. Irala 565, Santa Cruz, Bolivia. ; Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. ; UNELLEZ-Guanare, Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario (PORT), Mesa de Cavacas, Estado Portuguesa, 3350 Venezuela. ; Biodiversiteit en Ecosysteem Dynamica, University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94248, 1090 GE Amsterdam, The Netherlands. ; 1] Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UMR EcoFoG, Campus Agronomique, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana. [2] International Center for Tropical Botany, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, Florida 33199, USA. ; Universidade Federal do Acre, Campus de Cruzeiro do Sul, Rio Branco, Brazil. ; INRA, UMR 1137 ''Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestiere'' 54280 Champenoux, France. ; Embrapa Roraima, Caixa Postal 133, Boa Vista, RR, CEP 69301-970, Brazil. ; Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Av. de la Cultura N degrees 733, Cusco, Peru. ; 1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] International Master Program of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan. ; Universite Paul Sabatier CNRS, UMR 5174 Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Batiment 4R1, 31062 Toulouse, France. ; Northeast Region Inventory and Monitoring Program, National Park Service, 120 Chatham Lane, Fredericksburg, Virginia 22405, USA. ; Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program, Puerto Maldonado, Madre de Dios, Peru. ; Universidade Federal do Para, Centro de Geociencias, Belem, CEP 66017-970 Para, Brazil. ; Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil. ; Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at Austin, SAC Room 5.150, 2201 Speedway Stop C3200, Austin, Texas 78712, USA. ; Department of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution, PO Box 37012, MRC 187, Washington DC 20013-7012, USA. ; Cirad, UMR Ecologie des Forets de Guyane, Campus Agronomique, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana. ; 1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonia Peruana, Av. A. Jose Quinones km 2.5, Iquitos, Peru. ; World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street NW, Washington DC 20037, USA. ; Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia. ; Instituto Boliviano de Investigacion Forestal, C.P. 6201, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. ; National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), C.P. 478, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69011-970, Brazil. ; 1] FOMABO, Manejo Forestal en las Tierras Tropicales de Bolivia, Sacta, Bolivia. [2] Escuela de Ciencias Forestales (ESFOR), Universidad Mayor de San Simon (UMSS), Sacta, Bolivia. ; Universidad Estatal Amazonica, Facultad de Ingenieria Ambiental, Paso lateral km 2 1/2 via Napo, Puyo, Pastaza, Ecuador. ; National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), C.P. 2223, 69080-971, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. ; Universidad Autonoma del Beni, Campus Universitario, Av. Ejercito Nacional, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia. ; 1] Instituto Boliviano de Investigacion Forestal, C.P. 6201, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. [2] Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. ; 1] Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Box 90381, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA. [2] The Field Museum, 1400 South Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60605-2496, USA. ; Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. ; Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peruana, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru. ; Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal (INDEFOR), Universidad de Los Andes, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Conjunto Forestal, C.P. 5101, Merida, Venezuela. ; Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, 77 High Street Kingston, Georgetown, Guyana. ; Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Av. Magalhaes Barata, 376 - Sao Braz, CEP 66040-170, Belem PA, Brazil. ; UFRA, Av. Presidente Tancredo Neves 2501, CEP 66.077-901, Belem, Para, Brazil. ; Museu Universitario, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco AC 69910-900, Brazil. ; European Commission - DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Via Enrico Fermi 274, 21010 Ispra, Italy. ; 1] Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands. [2] Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Utrecht University, PO Box 80084, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands. ; Museo de Historia Natural Alcide D'Orbigny, Av. Potosi no 1458, Cochabamba, Bolivia. ; 1] School of Earth and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4870, Australia. [2] Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia. ; 1] Northumbria University, School of Geography, Ellison Place, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle NE1 8ST, UK. [2] University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202, USA. [3] Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado Postal 0843-03092, Panama, Republic of Panama. ; Van der Hout Forestry Consulting, Jan Trooststraat 6, 3078 HP Rotterdam, The Netherlands. ; Universidade Estadual de Campinas, NEPAM, Rua dos Flamboyants, 155- Cidade Universitaria Zeferino Vaz, Campinas, CEP 13083-867, Sao Paulo, Brazil. ; 1] Universidad Autonoma del Beni, Campus Universitario, Av. Ejercito Nacional, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia. [2] Centro de Investigacion y Promocion del Campesinado, regional Norte Amazonico, C/ Nicanor Gonzalo Salvatierra N degrees 362, Casilla 16, Riberalta, Bolivia. ; Tropenbos International, PO Box 232, 6700 AE Wageningen, The Netherlands.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25788097" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s 〉40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.

Description: Leaves in tropical forests come in an enormous variety of sizes and shapes, each of which can be ultimately viewed as an adaptation to the complex problem of optimising the capture of light for photosynthesis. However, the fact that many different shape "strategies" coexist within a habitat demonstrate that there are many other intrinsic and extrinsic factors involved, such as the differential investment in support tissues required for different leaf lamina shapes. Here, we take a macrogeographic approach to understanding the function of different lamina shape categories. Specifically, we use 106 permanent plots spread across the Amazon rainforest basin to: 1) describe the geographic distribution of some simple metrics of lamina shape in plots from across Amazonia, and; 2) identify and quantify relationships between key environmental parameters and lamina shape in tropical forests. Because the plots are not randomly distributed across the study area, achieving this latter objective requires the use of statistics that can account for spatial auto-correlation. We found that between 60–70% of the 2791 species and 83 908 individual trees in the dataset could be classified as having elliptic leaves (= the widest part of the leaf is on an axis in the middle fifth of the long axis of the leaf). Furthermore, the average Amazonian tree leaf is 2.5 times longer than it is wide and has an entire margin. Contrary to theoretical expectations we found little support for the hypothesis that narrow leaves are an adaptation to dry conditions. However, we did find strong regional patterns in leaf lamina length-width ratios and several significant correlations with precipitation variables suggesting that water availability may be exerting an as yet unrecognised selective pressure on leaf shape of rainforest trees. Some support was found for the hypothesis that narrow leaves are an adaptation to low nutrient soils. Furthermore, we found a strong correlation between the proportion of trees with non-entire laminas (dissected, toothed, etc.) and mean annual temperature once again supporting the well documented association that provides a basis for reconstructing past temperature regimes.