ALBERT

Description: CUACE/Dust, an operational sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system for East Asia, was developed at CMA (China Meteorological Administration) by integrating a meso-scale dust aerosol model with a 3DVar data assimilation system that uses both surface network observation data and dust intensity data retrieved from the Chinese Geostationary Satellite FY-2C. For spring 2006, CUACE/Dust successfully forecasted most of the 31 SDS episodes in East Asia. A detailed comparison of the modeling predictions for the 8–12 March episode with surface network observations and lidar measurements revealed a robust forecasting ability of the system. The time series of the forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 were also evaluated against surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a very good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes near source regions where dust aerosols dominate. For the entire domain forecasts in spring 2006 (1 March–31 May), a TS (thread score) system evaluated the performance of the system against all available observations and rendered an averaged TS value of 0.31 for 24 h forecasts, 0.23 for 48 h and 0.21 for 72 h forecasts.

Description: The spatial-temporal distributions and sources of sand and dust storm (SDS) in East Asia from 2001 to 2006 were investigated on the basis of visibility and PM10 data from the routine SDS and weather monitoring networks run by CMA (China Meteorological Administration). A power functional relationships between PM10 and visibility was found among various regions generally with a good correlation (r2=0.90), especially in Asian SDS source regions. In addition, three SDS occurrence centers, i.e. western China, Mongolia and northern China, were identified with the Mongolia source contributing more dust to the downwind areas including Korea and Japan than other two sources. Generally, high PM10 concentrations were observed in most areas of northern China. The highest value was obtained in the center of western China with a spring daily mean value of 876 μgm−3, and the value in other source regions exceeds 200 μgm−3. These data sets together with the satellite observations in China form the main observation database for the evaluation and data assimilation of CUACE/Dust system – an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia.

Description: We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003–2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS + BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom-3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS + BB + OC CO2 fluxes over 2004–2006 for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology are −4.4 ± 0.9 (−4.2 ± 0.9), −3.9 ± 0.9 (−4.5 ± 0.9), and −5.2 ± 0.9 (−4.9 ± 0.9) PgC yr−1, respectively. After taking into account anthropogenic fossil fuel and bio-fuel emissions, the global annual net CO2 emissions for 2004–2006 are estimated to be 4.0 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), 4.8 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), and 3.8 ± 0.9 (4.1 ± 0.9) PgC yr−1, respectively. The estimated 3-yr total net emission for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology is equal to 12.5 (12.4) PgC, agreeing with other recent top-down estimates (12–13 PgC). The regional a posteriori fluxes are broadly consistent in the sign and magnitude of the TransCom-3 study for 1992–1996, but we find larger net sinks over northern and southern continents. We find large departures from our a priori over Europe during summer 2003, over temperate Eurasia during 2004, and over North America during 2005, reflecting an incomplete description of terrestrial carbon dynamics. We find GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) a posteriori CO2 concentrations reproduce the observed surface trend of 1.91–2.43 ppm yr−1 (parts per million per year), depending on latitude, within 0.15 ppm yr−1 (0.2 ppm yr−1) and the seasonal cycle within 0.2 ppm (0.2 ppm) at all latitudes. We find the a posteriori model reproduces the aircraft vertical profile measurements of CO2 over North America and Siberia generally within 1.5 ppm in the free and upper troposphere but can be biased by up to 4–5 ppm in the boundary layer at the start and end of the growing season. The model has a small negative bias in the free troposphere CO2 trend (1.95–2.19 ppm yr−1) compared to AIRS data which has a trend of 2.21–2.63 ppm yr−1 during 2004–2006, consistent with surface data. Model CO2 concentrations in the upper troposphere, evaluated using CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) aircraft measurements, reproduce the magnitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in both hemispheres. We generally find that the GEOS meteorology reproduces much of the observed tropospheric CO2 variability, suggesting that these meteorological fields will help make significant progress in understanding carbon fluxes as more data become available.

Description: CUACE/Dust, an operational mesoscale sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system for East Asia, has been developed by online coupling a dust aerosol emission scheme and dust aerosol microphysics onto a regional meteorological model with improved advection and diffusion schemes and a detailed Northeast Asia soil erosion database. With improved initial dust aerosol conditions through a 3-DVar data assimilation system, CUACE/Dust successfully forecasted most of the 31 SDS processes in East Asia. A detailed comparison of the model predictions for the 8–12 March SDS process with surface network observations and lidar measurements revealed a robust forecasting ability of the system. The time series of the operationally forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 (1 March–31 May) were evaluated against surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes at and near the source regions where dust aerosols dominate. For the operational forecasts of spring 2006 in East Asia, a TS (threat score) system evaluated the performance of CUACE/Dust against all available observations and rendered a spring averaged TS value of 0.31 for FT1 (24 h forecasts), 0.23 for FT2 (48 h forecasts) and 0.21 for FT3 (72 h forecasts).

Description: This paper introduces a definition of sand/dust storm process as a new standard and idea of sand/dust storm (SDS) groups a number of SDS-events in Northeast Asia. Based on the meteorological data from WMO/GOS network, 2456 Chinese surface stations and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the sand/dust storm processes in Northeast Asia in spring 2000–2006 are investigated. And the evolutions of anomalies of general circulation in the troposphere are analyzed by comparing the spring having most and least occurrences of SDS in year 2006 and 2003. Associated with the noticeably increased occurrence of SDS processes in spring 2006, the anomalies in 3-D structure of general circulation especially in the mid-and high latitudes of the Northen Hemisphere (NH) are revealed. The transition period from the winter of 2005 to spring 2006 has witnessed a fast-developed high center over the circumpolar vortex area in the upper troposphere, which pushes the polar vortex more southwards to mid-latitudes with a more extensive area over the east NH. In spring 2006, there are the significant circulation anomalies in the middle troposphere from the Baikal Lake to northern China with a stronger southward wind anomaly over Northeast Asia. Compared with a normal year, stronger meridional wind with a southward wind anomaly also in the lower troposphere prevail over the arid and semiarid regions in Mongolia and northern China during spring 2006. The positive anomalies of surface high pressure registered an abnormal high of 4–10 hPa in the Tamil Peninsular make a stronger cold air source for the repeated cold air outbreak across the desert areas in spring 2006 resulting in the most frequent SDS seasons in the last 10 years in Northeast Asia.

Description: In 2003, strong energetic particle precipitation (EPP) events occurred producing massive amounts of ionization which affected the polar region significantly perturbing its chemical state down to the middle stratosphere. These events and their effects are generally left unaccounted for in current models of stratospheric chemistry and large differences between observations and models are then noted. In this study, we use a coupled 3-D stratospheric dynamical-chemical model and assimilation system to ingest MIPAS temperature and chemical observations. The goal is to gain further understanding of assimilation and monitoring processes during EPP events and their impacts on the stratospheric polar chemistry. Moreover, we investigate the feasibility of assimilating valid "outlier" observations associated with such events. We use OmF (Observation minus Forecast) residuals as they filter out phenomena well reproduced by the model (such as gas phase chemistry, transport, diurnal and seasonal cycles) thus revealing a clear trace of the EPP. Inspection of OmF statistics in both passive (without chemical assimilation) and active (with chemical assimilation) cases altogether provides a powerful diagnostic tool to assess the model and assimilation system. We also show that passive OmF can permit a satisfactory evaluation of the ozone partial column loss due to EPP effects. Results suggest a small but significant loss of 5–6 DU (Dobson Units) during an EPP-IE (EPP Indirect Effects) event in the Antarctic winter of 2003, and about only 1 DU for the SPE (Solar Proton Event) of October/November 2003. Despite large differences between the model and MIPAS chemical observations (NO2, HNO3, CH4 and O3), we demonstrate that a careful assimilation with only gas phase chemistry included in the model (i.e. no provision for EPP) and with relaxed quality control nearly eliminated the short-term bias and significantly reduced the standard deviation error of the constituents below 1 hPa.

Description: The main objective of this study is to investigate the formation and evolution mechanism of the regional haze in megacity Beijing by analyzing the process of a severe haze that occurred 20–27 September 2011. Mass concentration and size distribution of aerosol particles as well as aerosol optical properties were concurrently measured at the Beijing urban atmospheric environment monitoring station. Gaseous pollutants (SO2, NO-NO2-NOx, O3, CO) and meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, and relative humidity) were simultaneously monitored. Meanwhile, aerosol spatial distribution and the height of planetary boundary layer (PBL) were retrieved from the signal of satellite and LIDAR (light detection and ranging). Concentrations of NO, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO observed during 23–27 September had exceeded the national ambient air quality standards for residents. The mass concentration of PM2.5 gradually accumulated during the measurement and reached at 220 μg m−3 on 26 September, and the corresponding atmospheric visibility was only 1.1 km. The daily averaged AOD in Beijing increased from ~ 0.16 at λ = 500 nm on 22 September and reached ~ 3.5 on 26 September. The key factors that affected the formation and evolution of this haze episode were stable anti-cyclone synoptic conditions at the surface, decreasing of the height of PBL, heavy pollution emissions from urban area, number and size evolution of aerosols, and hygroscopic growth for aerosol scattering. This case study may provide valuable information for the public to recognize the formation mechanism of the regional haze event over the megacity, which is also useful for the government to adopt scientific approach to forecast and eliminate the occurrence of regional haze in China.

Description: Vertical patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) and C:N stoichiometry are crucial for understanding biogeochemical cycles in high-altitude ecosystems, but remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated vertical distributions of SOC and TN as well as their stoichiometric relationships in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau using data of 405 profiles surveyed from 135 sites across the plateau during 2001–2004. Our results showed that, both SOC and TN in alpine grasslands decreased with soil depth, while C:N ratio did not exhibit significant change along soil profile. The associations of SOC and TN content (amount per area) with environmental factors diminished with soil depth. Soil carbon content was nearly proportional to nitrogen content with a slope of 1.04 across various various grassland types. The slope did not differ significantly between alpine steppe and alpine meadow or between alpine grasslands and global ecosystems, and also did not reveal significant differences among various soil depth intervals, suggesting that soil carbon-nitrogen coupling is irrespective of ecosystem types and soil depths.

Description: An experimental field study of wind-induced bias in precipitation measurements was conducted from September 2010 to April 2015 at a grassland site (99°52.9´ E, 38°16.1´ N; 2980 m) in the Hulu watershed in the Qilian Mountains, on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau, in China. The experiment included (1) an unshielded Chinese standard precipitation gauge (CSPGUN; orifice diameter = 20 cm, height = 70 cm), (2) a single Alter shield around a CSPG (CSPGSA), (3) a CSPG in a pit (CSPGPIT) and (4) a Double-Fence International Reference (DFIR) with a Tretyakov-shielded CSPG (CSPGDFIR). The catch ratio (CR) used the CSPGDFIR as a reference (CR = CSPGX/CSPGDFIR, %; X denotes UN, SA or PIT). The results show that the CSPGSA, CSPGPIT and CSPGDIFR caught 0.9, 4.5 and 3.4 % more rainfall; 7.7, 15.6 and 14.2 % more mixed precipitation (snow with rain, rain with snow); 11.1, 16.0 and 20.6 % more snowfall and 2.0, 6.0 and 5.3 % more precipitation (of all types), respectively, than the CSPGUN from September 2012 to April 2015. The CSPGPIT and CSPGDFIR caught 3.6 and 2.5 % more rainfall; 7.3 and 6.0 % more mixed precipitation; 4.4 and 8.5 % more snowfall; and 3.9 and 3.2 % more total precipitation, respectively, than the CSPGSA. However, the CSPGDFIR caught 1.0 % less rainfall; 1.2 % less mixed precipitation; 3.9 % more snowfall and 0.6 % less total precipitation than the CSPGPIT. From most to least precipitation measured, the instruments ranked as follows: for rain and mixed precipitation, CSPGPIT 〉 CSPGDFIR 〉 CSPGSA 〉 CSPGUN; for snowfall, CSPGDFIR 〉 CSPGPIT 〉 CSPGSA 〉 CSPGUN. The CR vs. 10 m wind speed for the period of precipitation indicated that with increasing wind speed from 0 to 8.0 m s−1, the CRUN/DFIR and CRSA/DFIR for rainfall decreased slightly. For mixed precipitation, the wind speed showed no significant effect on CRUN/DFIR and CRSA/DFIR below 3.5 m s−1. For snowfall, the CRUN/DFIR and CRSA/DFIR vs. wind speed showed that CR decreased with increasing wind speed. The precipitation measured by the shielded gauges increased linearly relative to that of the unshielded gauges. However, the increase in the ratio of the linear correlation should depend on specific environmental conditions. A comparison of the wind-induced bias indicates that the CSPGPIT could be used as a reference gauge for rain, mixed and snow precipitation events at the experimental site. As both the PIT and DFIR effectively prevented wind from influencing the catch of the precipitation gauge, the CRPIT/DFIR had no relationship with wind speed. Cubic polynomials and exponential functions were used to quantify the relationship between catch ratio and wind speed. For snow, for both event and daily scales, the CRUN/DFIR and CRSA/DFIR were significantly related to wind speed; while for rain and mixed precipitation, only the event scale showed a significant relationship.

Description: The Beijing plain area has suffered from severe land subsidence owing to groundwater overdraft. A major example is the Wenyu River alluvial fan in the Beijing plain area. This area has experienced as much as 10 m of land subsidence through 2000s. An integrated subsidence-monitoring program, including borehole extensometer and multilayer monitoring of groundwater, has been designed to meet the needs of monitoring land subsidence in this region. This work has allowed us to characterize land subsidence and understand the mechanical properties of the strata. The analysis results show the development of the land subsidence in this area is consistent with water-level change. The major strata contributing to compression deformation are Mid-Pleistocene stratum which contributed around 70 % of total subsidence. The shallow stratum and deep stratum show elastic mechanical behavior the intermediate stratum exhibit elastic-plastic mechanical behavior.