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  • 2020-2023  (5)
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  • 1
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    The impact of non-breaking surface waves in upper-ocean temperature simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (2021)
    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 16 (3). Art.Nr. 034008.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-07
    Description: Widespread mismatches between proxy-based and modelling studies of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has limited better understanding about interglacial-glacial climate change. In this study, we incorporate non-breaking surface waves (NBW) induced mixing into an ocean model to assess the potential role of waves in changing a simulation of LGM upper oceans. Our results show a substantial 40 m subsurface warming introduced by surface waves in LGM summer, with larger magnitudes relative to the present-day ocean. At the ocean surface, according to the comparison between the proxy data and our simulations, the incorporation of the surface wave process into models can potentially decrease the model-data discrepancy for the LGM ocean. Therefore, our findings suggest that the inclusion of NBW is helpful in simulating glacial oceans.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
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    Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability (2022)
    In:  EPIC3EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 2022Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability 
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: The Arctic sea ice cover and thickness have significantly declined since the 1970s, while exhibiting large interannual variability. Snow cover on sea ice, acting as an insulating barrier, was shown to be instrumental in driving the variability and trends in sea-ice thickness. Yet, the Arctic snow depth remains scarcely measured and overlooked in climate models, which translates to “very limited predictive skill” according to the IPCC (Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate). Moreover, sea-ice thickness initialization has been shown to be an important element for skilful sea-ice forecasts, and it appears plausible that the same holds for the snow layer on top. Here, we investigate the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping the Arctic snow-cover and sea-ice thickness anomalies. In this preparatory work, spectral nudging of the large-scale atmospheric circulation towards ERA5 reanalysis data is applied to the fully coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM-3). We examine the variability and trends of Arctic snowfall, snow depth, sea ice cover and thickness over a 42-year period (1979-2021), and in particular the reproduction of observed anomalies. Two nudging configurations are used, differing in strength by their relaxation timescale τ and spectral truncation wavenumber T (namely τ=24 h, T20 and τ=1 h, T159). We demonstrate the importance of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping variations of snow and ice thickness at sub-seasonal to interannual scales, and discuss the potential of spectral nudging as a tool to improve the initialization of sea ice forecasts.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 3
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    Response of Northern Hemisphere Weather and Climate to Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Resolution Independence in Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) Simulations (2021)
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 34(20), pp. 8445-8457, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-29
    Description: The impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the weather and climate in midlatitudes is still much debated, with observations suggesting a strong link and models a much weaker link. In this study, we use the atmospheric model OpenIFS in a set of model experiments following the protocol outlined in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to investigate whether the simulated atmospheric response to future changes in Arctic sea ice fundamentally depends on model resolution. More specifically, we increase the horizontal resolution of the model from 125 to 39 km with 91 vertical levels; in a second step, resolution is further increased to 16 km with 137 levels in the vertical. The model does produce a response to sea ice decline with a weaker midlatitude Atlantic jet and increased blocking in the high-latitude Atlantic, but no sensitivity to resolution can be detected with 100 members. Furthermore, we find that the ensemble convergence toward the mean is not impacted by the model resolutions considered here.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss (2022)
    Nature Research
    In:  EPIC3Nature Communications, Nature Research, 13, pp. 727, ISSN: 2041-1723
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-29
    Description: The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
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    AWI-CM3 coupled climate model: Description and evaluation experiments for a prototype post-CMIP6 model (2022)
    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3EGUsphere, Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-29
    Description: We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 has the multi-resolution functionality typical for unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of latest developments in the numerical weather prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable resolution (25–125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other on-going research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution, the development of a full Earth System Model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above CMIP6-average skills in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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