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  • 2020-2024  (20)
  • 1960-1964
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  • 1
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    Technical and Economic Irrigation Potentials within land and water boundaries (2023)
    In:  Water Resources Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: To satisfy the increasing global demand for agricultural products, the expansion of irrigation is an important intensification measure. At the same time, unsustainable water abstractions and cropland expansion pose a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Irrigation potentials are influenced by local biophysical irrigation water availability and competition of different water users. Using a novel hydro-economic data processing routine that considers economic criteria of water allocation via a productivity ranking of grid cells and both land and water sustainability criteria, we estimate global irrigation potentials at a 0.5 ° spatial resolution. We show that there is considerable technical potential to expand irrigation within local water and land boundaries. In terms of potentially irrigated areas on all global land suitable for crop production, 2144 Mha could be irrigated within land and water environmental boundaries when only considering biophysical criteria. However, not all of these areas would actually be irrigated under consideration of irrigation costs. Of these, only 698 Mha (330 Mha) have a yield gain of more than 300 (600) USD ha-1 under the current crop mix valued at their current commodity price (economic irrigation potential).
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Data for Beringer et al.: CO2 fertilization effect may balance climate change impacts on oil palm cultivation (2023)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: This repository contains the data used to produce all figures in Beringer et al. "CO2 fertilization effect may balance climate change impacts on oil palm cultivation".
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 3
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    AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations on climate change impact and adaptation for global wheat (2023)
    In:  Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-06
    Description: The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management (2023)
    In:  Nature Communications
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Drought-tolerant succulent plants as an alternative crop under future global warming scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa (2023)
    In:  Global Change Biology Bioenergy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-20
    Description: Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO2 emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO2. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    LPJmL4 and LPJmL5 source code for FSEC Food Systems Transformation assessment (2023)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Source code of LPJmL version 4 (Schaphoff et al. 2018a,b) and version 5 (von Bloh et al. 2018, Lutz et al. 2019, Herzfeld et al. 2021) as used to generate input data for MAgPIE (Dietrich et al. 2019), making use of the ISIMIP3b future climate scenarios (Lange and Büchner 2020) and the GGCMI Phase3 LPJmL setup (Jägermeyr et al. 2021).
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 7
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    Climate change impacts on European arable crop yields: sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management (2023)
    In:  European Journal of Agronomy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual reinitialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model reinitialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040-2065 relative to a baseline from 1980-2005 using the SIMPLACE1modelling framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 3% and 10% depending on the residue management strategy.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
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    Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming (2023)
    In:  Communications Earth and Environment
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-26
    Description: Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Start and plotting scripts: Climate change-driven global land-use system adaptation under CMIP6-based crop model projections (2023)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-04
    Description: Starting and plotting scripts to replicate Figures and runs for the Climate change-driven global land-use system adaptation under CMIP6-based crop model projections. Updated Version that includes color-blind friendly palettes and additional scripts compared to Version 1.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 10
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    Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two decades (2023)
    In:  Nature Food
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-13
    Description: Extreme climate events constitute a major risk to global food production. Among these, extreme rainfall is often dismissed from historical analyses and future projections, the impacts and mechanisms of which remain poorly understood. Here we used long-term nationwide observations and multi-level rainfall manipulative experiments to explore the magnitude and mechanisms of extreme rainfall impacts on rice yield in China. We find that rice yield reductions due to extreme rainfall were comparable to those induced by extreme heat over the last two decades, reaching 7.6 ± 0.9% (one standard error) according to nationwide observations and 8.1 ± 1.1% according to the crop model incorporating the mechanisms revealed from manipulative experiments. Extreme rainfall reduces rice yield mainly by limiting nitrogen availability for tillering that lowers per-area effective panicles and by exerting physical disturbance on pollination that declines per-panicle filled grains. Considering these mechanisms, we projected ~8% additional yield reduction due to extreme rainfall under warmer climate by the end of the century. These findings demonstrate that it is critical to account for extreme rainfall in food security assessments.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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