ALBERT

Description: Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

Description: Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, approx. 2900 observations of aerosol NO3- and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995-2012, are used to assess the performance of modeled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes, however these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here the available observational data were averaged over a 5deg x 5deg grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the TM4-ECPL (TM4) model: ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3- and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3- and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3- and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model observation ratios, weighted by grid-cell area and numbers of observations, (RA,n) were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 over-estimates NO3- concentrations (RA,n = 1.4-2.9) and under-estimates NH4+ concentrations (RA,n = 0.5- 0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA,n = 0.6- 2.6 for NO3-, 0.6-3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA,n for NHx CalDep - ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep - ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas- phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. (abstract is longer than the allotted space).

Description: We present C I(21) and multi-transition C-12 O observations of a dusty star-forming galaxy, ACT J2029+0120,which we spectroscopically confirm to lie at zeta = 2.64. We detect CO(3-2), CO(5-4), CO(7-6), CO(8-7), and C I(2-1) at high significance, tentatively detect HCO+(4-3), and place strong upper limits on the integrated strength of dense gas tracers (HCN(4-3) and CS(7-6)). Multi-transition CO observations and dense gas tracers can provide valuable constraints on the molecular gas content and excitation conditions in high-redshift galaxies. We therefore use this unique data set to construct a CO spectral line energy distribution (SLED) of the source, which is most consistent with that of a ULIRG Seyfert or QSO host object in the taxonomy of the Herschel Comprehensive ULIRG Emission Survey. We employ RADEX models to fit the peak of the CO SLED, inferring a temperature of T approximately 117 K and n(sub H2) approximately 10(exp5) cm(exp -3), most consistent with a ULIRGQSO object and the presence of high-density tracers. We also find that the velocity width of the C I line is potentially larger than seen in all CO transitions forth is object, and that the L'(sub Ci(2-1))/L'(sub CO(3-2))ratio is also larger than seen in other lensed and unlensed submillimeter galaxies and QSO hosts; if confirmed, this anomaly could be an effect of differential lensing of a shocked molecular outflow.

Description: A full understanding of LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna)'s science capability will require accurate models of incident waveform signals and the instrumental response. While Fisher matrix analysis is useful for some estimates, a full Bayesian treatment is needed for important cases at the limit of LISA's capability. We will apply fast analysis algorithms enabling accurate treatment with EOB (effective-one-body) waveforms and the full-featured LISA response to study the significance of higher spherical harmonics and mergers in LISA analysis.

Description: Binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a prime source for current and future interferometric gravitational wave observatories. Massive BBH mergers may often take place in plasma-rich environments, leading to the exciting possibility of a concurrent electromagnetic (EM) signal observable by traditional astronomical facilities. However, many critical questions about the generation of such counterparts remain unanswered. We explore mechanisms that may drive EM counterparts with magnetohydrodynamic simulations treating a range of scenarios involving equal-mass black-hole binaries immersed in an initially homogeneous fluid with uniform, orbitally aligned magnetic fields. We find that the time development of Poynting luminosity, which may drive jetlike emissions, is relatively insensitive to aspects of the initial configuration. In particular, over a significant range of initial values, the central magnetic field strength is effectively regulated by the gas flow to yield a Poynting luminosity of 1 0 Exp 45) 10(exp 46) (sub 13) M(sub 8)(exp 2) erg s(exp 1), with BBH mass scaled to M(sub 8) M / ( 10 8 M ) and ambient density 13 / ( 10(exp 13) g cm(sub 3)). We also calculate the direct plasma synchrotron emissions processed through geodesic ray-tracing. Despite lensing effects and dynamics, we find the observed synchrotron flux varies little leading up to merger.

Description: Binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a prime source for current and future interferometric GW observatories. Massive BBH mergers may often take place in plasma-rich environments, leading to the exciting possibility of a concurrent electromagnetic (EM) signal observable by traditional astronomical facilities. However, many critical questions about the generation of such counterparts remain unanswered. We explore mechanisms that may drive EM counterparts with magnetohydrodynamic simulations treating a range of scenarios involving equal-mass black-hole binaries immersed in an initially homogeneous fluid with uniform, orbitally aligned magnetic fields. We find that the time development of Poynting luminosity, which may drive jet-like emissions, is relatively insensitive to aspects of the initial configuration. In particular, over a significant range of initial values, the central magnetic field strength is effectively regulated by the gas flow to yield a Poynting luminosity of 10(exp 45) - 10(exp 46) (p-13) M(sub 8)(exp 2) erg/s, with BBH mass scaled to M(sub 8) defined to be equal to M=(10(exp 8) solar mass) and ambient density p -13 defined to be equal to p/(10(exp -13) g/cu.cm). We also calculate the direct plasma synchrotron emissions processed through geodesic ray-tracing. Despite lensing effects and dynamics, we find the observed synchrotron flux varies little leading up to merger.