ALBERT

Description: L’importanza di un terremoto non dipende solo dalla sua intensità epicentrale. Quello del 26 maggio 1798 (Io VII MCS secondo CPTI04) non si può dire una catastrofe ma è di certo un evento «strategico». Si tratta, infatti, del massimo terremoto storico conosciuto per Siena, che è una delle maggiori attrazioni turistiche e quindi uno dei luoghi più frequentati di questo paese. Nell’ultimo ventennio il terremoto del 1798 è stato più volte studiato, sia da sismologi storici nell’ambito delle attività di revisione del catalogo PFG promosse dal GNDT e dall’ING/INGV (Castelli e Camassi, 1995; Castelli et al., 1996; Boschi et al., 1997; Boschi et al., 2000), sia da storici dell’architettura (Gennari, 2005). Siamo ancora lontani dall’aver completamente esplorato la copiosissima documentazione storica potenzialmente utile per una ricostruzione degli effetti di questo terremoto nel centro urbano senese. Tuttavia il campione reso disponibile dagli studi fatti finora è abbastanza significativo da rendere possibile l’avvio di un progetto di microzonazione del centro storico senese e di una serie di indagini miranti a comprendere cosa realmente successe a Siena il 26 maggio 1798 e, per conseguenza, quali effetti ci si possa attendere in occasione di un futuro terremoto di analoga portata. Il centro storico senese ha infatti conservato, almeno nelle grandi linee, una fisionomia molto simile a quella che aveva del 1798 e questa circostanza offre l’opportunità di attualizzare l’esperienza del terremoto del 1798 contribuendo alla identificazione delle eventuali criticità attese in caso di terremoti futuri. Si è perciò creato un gruppo di studio interdisciplinare (geofisica, architettura, sismologia storica, ingegneria sismica, geologia, ecc.) che ha cominciato a predisporre gli elementi necessari per questa ricostruzione. La base di dati storici di cui si dispone comprende descrizioni di danno più o meno dettagliate per circa seicento edifici senesi, su un migliaio da cui era composto il centro urbano nel 1798. Questo campione comprende sia edifici monumentali o comunque di vaste proporzioni (palazzi gentilizi e case di abitazione multipla, chiese, conventi, opifici) sia edifici non monumentali. Il nostro primo scopo è una ricostruzione dettagliata della distribuzione del danno del terremoto del 1798 nell’area urbana. Utilizzando cartografia storica pressoché coeva al terremoto (cfr. Gennari, 2005) e grazie all’impiego di un GIS, è stato possibile trasporre le informazioni storiche sottoforma di carte tematiche (Danno, Vulnerabilità, Interventi richiesti, eccetera). Le Figg. 1 e 2 presentano due esempi di tematismi derivati da dati archivistici. In parallelo a questa analisi verrà svolta una indagine a campione su una ventina di edifici rappresentativi per i quali si eseguiranno stime di comportamento dinamico con la tecnica del tremore sismico ambientale. A completamento della caratterizzazione della risposta sismica dei terreni nell’area del centro storico saranno svolte analisi geologiche e sismiche per definire le aree in cui l’assetto del sottosuolo rende ipotizzabili fenomeni di amplificazione del moto sismico del suolo. Tutti i risultati verranno raccolti in una base dati comune e implementati nel GIS (Figura 2) L’analisi congiunta dei dati di danno (opportunamente interpretati in termini di risposta sismica locale utilizzando il metodo proposto da Goretti e Dolce, 2004; Goretti, 2006) e delle analisi geofisiche e geologiche permetterà di individuare quelle parti del patrimonio edilizio storico più esposte a danno in caso di futuri eventi sismici.

Description: Published

Description: Roma

Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: open

Description: Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in re- ducing vulnerability and/or exposure of buildings and lifelines. Indeed, seismologists have recently developed efficient methods for real-time es- timation of an event’s magnitude and location based on limited informa- tion of the P-waves. Therefore, when an event occurs, estimates of magni- tude and source-to-site distance are available, and the prediction of the structural demand at the site may be performed by Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and then by Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) depending upon EEWS measures. Such an approach contains a higher level of information with respect to traditional seismic risk analysis and may be used for real-time risk management. However, this kind of prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which may affect the effectiveness of the system and therefore have to be taken into due account. In the present study the performance of the EWWS under development in the Campania region (southern Italy) is assessed by simu- lation. The earthquake localization is formulated in a Voronoi cells ap- proach, while a Bayesian method is used for magnitude estimation. Simu- lation has an empirical basis but requires no recorded signals. Our results, in terms of hazard analysis and false/missed alarm probabilities, lead us to conclude that the PSHA depending upon the EEWS significantly improves seismic risk prediction at the site and is close to what could be produced if magnitude and distance were deterministically known.

Description: Published

Description: 211-232

Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: reserved

Description: The city of Palermo (southern Italy) was severely damaged in the past by moderate-magnitude earthquakes located tens of kilometres offshore. The historical monumental heritage and the high density of population motivated large efforts for the seismic risk assessment. We present the geological and seismological studies performed in downtown Palermo as a study case to show how the complexity of an urban environment can be approached with multidisciplinary investigations. Downtown Palermo is characterized by sea deposits in the coastal zone and the alluvial deposits of two rivers (Papireto and Kemonia) of about 150 m width, which were buried and filled during the XVII century. The difficulty of surface geological surveys was compensated through an analysis of aerial photos and more than 2000 borehole data organized in the City-GIS of the Department of Geology and Geodesy of the University of Palermo. A previous study on the well-documented historical damage indicated the major role played by the two river valleys and the sea deposits in controlling the damage distribution, above the assumption of a fairly homogeneous vulnerability of the existing buildings in downtown. To test the feasibility of using ambient noise for recognizing the presence of alluvial deposits in a densely urbanized environment, a large microtremor measurement campaign was performed in Palermo across several profiles. The frequency peaks inferred from the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio were compared with numerical simulations to assess the seismic velocity profile and the soil stratigraphy. Moreover, noise data were analyzed through a statistical approach to establish a possible correlation between damage, resonance frequency and amplitude, and geology. After the moderate earthquake of September 6, 2002 (Mw=5.9, 50 km far away), the analysis of the aftershock sequence provided a well documented estimate of the variation of ground motion within the city in the case of linear soil response. Using these aftershocks we computed also synthetic accelerograms of the main shock through Empirical Green’s Functions that provided ground accelerations as large as 50 gals, consistently with the documented EMS-98 intensity. Synthetic accelerograms showed a large variability of horizontal ground motion within the city (a factor of 3 – 4) that confirms the role of local geology in causing an increase of the seismic hazard on sea and alluvial deposits. Finally, we discuss the comparison between the acceleration response spectra calculated for different soil categories and the design elastic spectra provided by EC8.

Description: Unpublished

Description: Lisbon, Portugal

Description: open

Description: The West side of lake of Garda, in Northern Italy, was struck by a ML=5.2 earthquake on November 24, 2004. The felt area is rather large (from Venice to Milan) and the damaged area consists of 66 municipalities, with a number of homeless of about 2200 and estimated direct damages of 215 millions of euros. Most of the damaged structures are old masonry buildings and churches, while there were almost no damage to reinforced concrete structures. The observed distribution of macroseismic intensity shows a strong azimuthal dependence, with high intensity level in a 10x10 km2 area located SW to the epicentre and rather large dispersion of values (ranging from V to VII-VIII) in the first 10 km epicentral distance. Taking into account the vulnerability level of the damaged structures and the features of the geological formations, we tried to explain the observed damage distribution in terms of finite fault properties of the source, despite the moderate magnitude of the event. Thus we hypothesised a fault geometry from seismotectonic considerations and we simulated the event by a high frequency simulation technique (Deterministic Stochastic Method, DSM). The synthetic ground motion parameters were converted into intensity values by empirical relationships and local geological conditions were considered to explain some discrepancies between simulated and observed intensities. It was possible to adequately reproduce both the observed distribution of macroseismic intensity and the ground motion recorded by an accelerometric station located at about 13 km epicentral distance.

Description: Unpublished

Description: Geneva, Switzerland

Description: open

Description: For early-warning applications in particular, the reliability and efficiency of rapid scenario generation strongly depend on the availability of reliable strong ground-motion prediction tools. If shake maps are used to represent patterns of potential damage as a consequence of large earthquakes, attenuation relations are used as a tool for predicting peak ground-motion parameters and intensities. One of the limitations in the use of attenuation relations is that these have only rarely been retrieved from data collected in the same tectonic environment in which the prediction has to be performed. As a consequence, strong ground motion can result in underestimations or overestimations with respect to the recorded data. This also holds for Italy, and in particular for the Southern Apennines, due to limitations in the available databases, both in terms of distances and magnitude. Moreover, for “real-time” early-warning applications, it is important to have attenuation models for which the parameters can be easily upgraded when new data are collected, whether this has to be done during the earthquake rupture occurrence or in the post-event, when all the strong motion waveforms are available. Here we present a strong-motion attenuation relation for early-warning applications in the Campania region (Southern Apennines), Italy. The model has a classical analytical formulation, and its coefficients were retrieved from a synthetic strong-motion database created by using a stochastic approach. The input parameters for the simulation technique were obtained through the spectral analysis of waveforms of earthquakes recorded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) network for a magnitude range Md (1.5,5.0) in the last fifteen years, and they have been extrapolated to cover a larger range. To validate the inferred relation, comparisons with two existing attenuation relations are presented. The results show that the calibration of the attenuation parameters, i.e., geometric spreading, quality factor Q, static stress drop values along with their uncertainties, are the main concern.

Description: Published

Description: 133-152

Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: reserved

Description: In the framework of an ongoing project financed by the Campania Region, a prototype system for seismic early and post-event warning is being developed and tested, based on a dense, wide dynamic seismic network (ISNet) and under installation in the Apennine belt region. This paper reports the characteristics of the seismic network, focussing on the required technological innovation of the different seismic network components (data-logger, sensors and data communication). To ensure a highly dynamic recording range, each station is equipped with two types of sensors: a strong-motion accelerometer and a velocimeter. Data acquisition at the seismic stations is performed using Osiris-6 model data-loggers made by Agecodagis. Each station is supplied with two (120 W) solar panels and two 130 Ah gel cell batteries, ensuring 72-h autonomy for the seismic and radio communication equipment. The site is also equipped with a GSM/GPRS programmable control/alarm system connected to several environmental sensors (door forcing, solar panel controller, battery, fire, etc) and through which the site status is known in real time. The data are stored locally on the hard-disk and, at the same time, continuously transmitted by the SeedLink protocol to local acquisition/analysis nodes (Local Control Center) via Wireless LAN bridge. At each LCC site runs a linux Earthworm system which stores and manages the acquired data stream. The real-time analysis system will perform event detection and localization based on triggers coming from data-loggers and parametric information coming from the other LCCs. Once an event is detected, the system will performs automatic magnitude and focal mechanism estimations. In the immediate post-event period, the RISSC performs shaking map calculations using parameters from the LCCs and/or data from the event database. The recorded earthquake data are stored into an event database, to be available for distribution and visualization for further off-line analyses. The seismic network will be completed in two stages: • Deployment of 30 seismic stations along the southern Apennine chain (to date almost completed) • Setting up a carrier-class radio communication system for fast and reliable data transmission, and installation of 10 additional seismic stations.

Description: Published

Description: 325 - 341

Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: reserved

Description: Progetto INGV-DPC S3 “Scenari di scuotimento in aree di interesse prioritario e/o strategico”

Description: Published

Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica

Description: open

Description: A predominantly deterministic viewpoint has been adopted for computing seismic ground motion both for urban areas (SP10) and infrastructures loss modeling (SP11) at three selected areas: the cities of Lisbon (Portugal) and Thessaloniki (Greece), and the metropolis of Istanbul (Turkey). The generation of earthquake ground motion scenarios involves both the particular choice of earthquake sources with associated fault rupture parameters, and the ensuing ground motion field calculated by an appropriate numerical tool, or empirically estimated, at a set of selected points within the urban area of interest. Ground shaking values are predicted for rock conditions and for two distinct frequency bands, i.e. the high frequency range (from 1.0 Hz to 4-5 Hz) in the case of damage evaluation for the vast majority of ordinary building, and the low frequency (≤ 2 Hz) more appropriate for lifeline system damage assessment. The advanced simulation techniques allowed to properly consider the finite fault effects and directivity, which imply extreme expected values, and they are capable of quantifying the spatial variability of the ground motion near the extended fault.

Description: Published

Description: Hotel Villa Carlotta, Belgirate (VB)– Italy

Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica

Description: open

Description: Vengono presentate nuove relazioni empiriche, definite per il territorio italiano, per la stima dell’intensità in un dato sito a partire da informazioni epicentrali o relative a località vicine. Queste relazioni, espresse in forma probabilistica e quindi direttamente utilizzabili per la stima della pericolosità sismica, condividono la stessa formalizzazione e la medesima base informativa. In particolare, sono state seguite tre diverse strategie: le prime due hanno portato alla definizione di una relazione di attenuazione per la stima dell’intensità al sito da dati epicentrali utilizzando una forma parametrica rispettivamente Gaussiana e Binomiale; la terza analisi è stata invece mirata a definire le modalità di “correzione” del valore locale di intensità, dedotto dalle informazioni epicentrali, con dati di risentimenti osservati in località vicine al sito in esame.

Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Description: Published

Description: 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici

Description: open

Description: Within the Italian Project S3 (DPC-INGV) “Shaking seismic scenarios in area of strategic and/or priority interest” the urban area of Gubbio has been chosen as a test site for the calculation of ground shaking scenarios for forecasting purposes. The area has been selected because the urban and / or geomorphologic characteristics of the town of Gubbio and its surrounding are good representatives of many areas in Central Italy: an historical centre of high cultural and artistic value founded on a rocky hillside with new residential and industrial areas developed on the alluvial plain. A great deal of effort has been put in the seismic characterisation of the Gubbio basin, since the general purpose of this work has been the quantification of site effects in intra-mountain basins. Recent studies have shown in fact that significant site effects take place in the Eugubina plain, as evidenced by the generation of surface waves. In particular, the strong motions recorded at the accelerometric station GPB, belonging to the RAN (Rete accelerometrica italiana), installed within the alluvial basin, shows strong amplification and lengthening of significant duration respect to rock sites (Pacor et al; 2007). Several investigations with active and passive seismic survey techniques have been planned and carried out in the plain, also favoured by the intense seismic activity typical of the area (see PS3-Deliverable 21). All data are collected in a GIS herewith enclosed (section 7). The estimates of the empirical transfer functions in the basin have been related to the monitoring activities of 4 temporary transects of seismometric stations (Figure 1.1), operating between June 2005 and May 2006 and described in this Deliverable. The velocemetric records are collected in PS3-Deliverable D26 The amplitude transfer functions for sites corresponding to the stations installed in the basin have been determined by applying three different methods, namely the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (H/V), the standard spectral ratio (SSR) and the generalized inversion technique (GIT).

Description: Progetto INGV-DPC S3 “Scenari di scuotimento in aree di interesse prioritario e/o strategico” (coord. F.Pacor e M. Mucciarelli).

Description: Published

Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica

Description: open