Publication Date:
2021-06-21
Description:
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction
of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in re-
ducing vulnerability and/or exposure of buildings and lifelines. Indeed,
seismologists have recently developed efficient methods for real-time es-
timation of an event’s magnitude and location based on limited informa-
tion of the P-waves. Therefore, when an event occurs, estimates of magni-
tude and source-to-site distance are available, and the prediction of the
structural demand at the site may be performed by Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and then by Probabilistic Seismic Demand
Analysis (PSDA) depending upon EEWS measures. Such an approach
contains a higher level of information with respect to traditional seismic
risk analysis and may be used for real-time risk management. However,
this kind of prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which
may affect the effectiveness of the system and therefore have to be taken
into due account. In the present study the performance of the EWWS under
development in the Campania region (southern Italy) is assessed by simu-
lation. The earthquake localization is formulated in a Voronoi cells ap-
proach, while a Bayesian method is used for magnitude estimation. Simu-
lation has an empirical basis but requires no recorded signals. Our results,
in terms of hazard analysis and false/missed alarm probabilities, lead us to
conclude that the PSHA depending upon the EEWS significantly improves
seismic risk prediction at the site and is close to what could be produced if
magnitude and distance were deterministically known.
Description:
Published
Description:
211-232
Description:
4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
Earthquake Early
;
Campania Region
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
book chapter
