ALBERT

Description: Immersion freezing is the most relevant heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanism through which ice crystals are formed in mixed-phase clouds. In recent years, an increasing number of laboratory experiments utilizing a variety of instruments have examined immersion freezing activity of atmospherically relevant ice nucleating particles (INPs). However, an inter-comparison of these laboratory results is a difficult task because investigators have used different ice nucleation (IN) measurement methods to produce these results. A remaining challenge is to explore the sensitivity and accuracy of these techniques and to understand how the IN results are potentially influenced or biased by experimental parameters associated with these techniques. Within the framework of INUIT (Ice Nucleation research UnIT), we distributed an illite rich sample (illite NX) as a representative surrogate for atmospheric mineral dust particles to investigators to perform immersion freezing experiments using different IN measurement methods and to obtain IN data as a function of particle concentration, temperature (T), cooling rate and nucleation time. Seventeen measurement methods were involved in the data inter-comparison. Experiments with seven instruments started with the test sample pre-suspended in water before cooling, while ten other instruments employed water vapor condensation onto dry-dispersed particles followed by immersion freezing. The resulting comprehensive immersion freezing dataset was evaluated using the ice nucleation active surface-site density (ns) to develop a representative ns(T) spectrum that spans a wide temperature range (−37 °C 〈 T 〈 −11 °C) and covers nine orders of magnitude in ns. Our inter-comparison results revealed a discrepancy between suspension and dry-dispersed particle measurements for this mineral dust. While the agreement was good below ~ −26 °C, the ice nucleation activity, expressed in ns, was smaller for the wet suspended samples and higher for the dry-dispersed aerosol samples between about −26 and −18 °C. Only instruments making measurement techniques with wet suspended samples were able to measure ice nucleation above −18 °C. A possible explanation for the deviation between −26 and −18 °C is discussed. In general, the seventeen immersion freezing measurement techniques deviate, within the range of about 7 °C in terms of temperature, by three orders of magnitude with respect to ns. In addition, we show evidence that the immersion freezing efficiency (i.e., ns) of illite NX particles is relatively independent on droplet size, particle mass in suspension, particle size and cooling rate during freezing. A strong temperature-dependence and weak time- and size-dependence of immersion freezing efficiency of illite-rich clay mineral particles enabled the ns parameterization solely as a function of temperature. We also characterized the ns (T) spectra, and identified a section with a steep slope between −20 and −27 °C, where a large fraction of active sites of our test dust may trigger immersion freezing. This slope was followed by a region with a gentler slope at temperatures below −27 °C. A multiple exponential distribution fit is expressed as ns(T) = exp(23.82 × exp(−exp(0.16 × (T + 17.49))) + 1.39) based on the specific surface area and ns(T) = exp(25.75 × exp(−exp(0.13 × (T + 17.17))) + 3.34) based on the geometric area (ns and T in m−2 and °C, respectively). These new fits, constrained by using an identical reference samples, will help to compare IN measurement methods that are not included in the present study and, thereby, IN data from future IN instruments.

Description: Advances in forest carbon mapping have the potential to greatly reduce uncertainties in the global carbon budget and to facilitate effective emissions mitigation strategies such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). Though broad-scale mapping is based primarily on remote sensing data, the accuracy of resulting forest carbon stock estimates depends critically on the quality of field measurements and calibration procedures. The mismatch in spatial scales between field inventory plots and larger pixels of current and planned remote sensing products for forest biomass mapping is of particular concern, as it has the potential to introduce errors, especially if forest biomass shows strong local spatial variation. Here, we used 30 large (8–50 ha) globally distributed permanent forest plots to quantify the spatial variability in aboveground biomass density (AGBD in Mg ha–1) at spatial scales ranging from 5 to 250 m (0.025–6.25 ha), and to evaluate the implications of this variability for calibrating remote sensing products using simulated remote sensing footprints. We found that local spatial variability in AGBD is large for standard plot sizes, averaging 46.3% for replicate 0.1 ha subplots within a single large plot, and 16.6% for 1 ha subplots. AGBD showed weak spatial autocorrelation at distances of 20–400 m, with autocorrelation higher in sites with higher topographic variability and statistically significant in half of the sites. We further show that when field calibration plots are smaller than the remote sensing pixels, the high local spatial variability in AGBD leads to a substantial "dilution" bias in calibration parameters, a bias that cannot be removed with standard statistical methods. Our results suggest that topography should be explicitly accounted for in future sampling strategies and that much care must be taken in designing calibration schemes if remote sensing of forest carbon is to achieve its promise.

Description: We present lower/middle tropospheric column-averaged CH4 mole fraction time series measured by nine globally distributed ground-based FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) remote sensing experiments of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We show that these data are well representative of the tropospheric regional-scale CH4 signal, largely independent of the local surface small-scale signals, and only weakly dependent on upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UTLS) CH4 variations. In order to achieve the weak dependency on the UTLS, we use an a posteriori correction method. We estimate a typical precision for daily mean values of about 0.5% and a systematic error of about 2.5%. The theoretical assessments are complemented by an extensive empirical study. For this purpose, we use surface in situ CH4 measurements made within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network and compare them to the remote sensing data. We briefly discuss different filter methods for removing the local small-scale signals from the surface in situ data sets in order to obtain the in situ regional-scale signals. We find good agreement between the filtered in situ and the remote sensing data. The agreement is consistent for a variety of timescales that are interesting for CH4 source/sink research: day-to-day, monthly, and inter-annual. The comparison study confirms our theoretical estimations and proves that the NDACC FTIR measurements can provide valuable data for investigating the cycle of CH4.

Description: We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

Description: We present lower/middle tropospheric column-averaged CH4 mole fraction time series measured by nine globally distributed ground-based FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) remote sensing experiments of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We show that these data are well representative of the tropospheric regional-scale CH4 signal, largely independent of the local small-scale signals of the boundary layer, and only weakly dependent on upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UTLS) CH4 variations. In order to achieve the weak dependency on the UTLS, we use an a posteriori correction method. We estimate a typical precision for daily mean values of about 0.5% and a systematic error of about 2.5%. The theoretical assessments are complemented by an extensive empirical study. For this purpose, we use surface in-situ CH4 measurements made within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network and compare them to the remote sensing data. We briefly discuss different filter methods for removing the local small-scale signals from the surface in-situ datasets in order to obtain the in-situ regional-scale signals. We find good agreement between the filtered in-situ and the remote sensing data. The agreement is consistent for a variety of time scales that are interesting for CH4 source/sink research: day-to-day, monthly, and inter-annual. The comparison study confirms our theoretical estimations and proves that the NDACC FTIR measurements can provide valuable data for investigating the cycle of CH4.

Description: Black carbon aerosols (BC) at a London urban site were characterised in both winter- and summertime 2012 during the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) project. Positive matrix factorisation (PMF) factors of organic aerosol mass spectra measured by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) showed traffic-dominant sources in summer but in winter the influence of additional non-traffic sources became more important, mainly from solid fuel sources (SF). Measurements using a single particle soot photometer (SP2, DMT), showed the traffic-dominant BC exhibited an almost uniform BC core size (Dc) distribution with very thin coating thickness throughout the detectable range of Dc. However, the size distribution of Dc (project average mass median Dc = 149 ± 22 nm in winter, and 120 ± 6 nm in summer) and BC coating thickness varied significantly in winter. A novel methodology was developed to attribute the BC number concentrations and mass abundances from traffic (BCtr) and from SF (BCsf), by using a 2-D histogram of the particle optical properties as a function of BC core size, as measured by the SP2. The BCtr and BCsf showed distinctly different Dc distributions and coating thicknesses, with BCsf displaying larger Dc and larger coating thickness compared to BCtr. BC particles from different sources were also apportioned by applying a multiple linear regression between the total BC mass and each AMS-PMF factor (BC–AMS–PMF method), and also attributed by applying the absorption spectral dependence of carbonaceous aerosols to 7-wavelength Aethalometer measurements (Aethalometer method). Air masses that originated from westerly (W), southeasterly (SE), and easterly (E) sectors showed BCsf fractions that ranged from low to high, and whose mass median Dc values were 137 ± 10 nm, 143 ± 11 nm and 169 ± 29 nm, respectively. The corresponding bulk relative coating thickness of BC (coated particle size/BC core – Dp/Dc) for these same sectors was 1.28 ± 0.07, 1.45 ± 0.16 and 1.65 ± 0.19. For W, SE and E air masses, the number fraction of BCsf ranged from 6 ± 2% to 11 ± 5% to 18 ± 10%, respectively, but importantly the larger BC core sizes lead to an increased fraction of BCsf in terms of mass than number (for W, SE and E air masses, the BCsf mass fractions ranged from 16 ± 6%, 24 ± 10% and 39 ± 14%, respectively). An increased fraction of non-BC particles (particles that did not contain a BC core) was also observed when SF sources were more significant. The BC mass attribution by the SP2 method agreed well with the BC–AMS–PMF multiple linear regression method (BC–AMS–PMF : SP2 ratio = 1.05, r2 = 0.80) over the entire experimental period. Good agreement was found between BCsf attributed with the Aethalometer model and the SP2. However, the assumed absorption Ångström exponent (αwb) had to be changed according to the different air mass sectors to yield the best comparison with the SP2. This could be due to influences of fuel type or burn phase.

Description: The grounding line is a key element of coastal outlet glaciers, acting on their dynamics. Accurately knowing its position is fundamental for both modelling the glacier dynamics and establishing a benchmark for later change detection. Here we map the grounding line of the Astrolabe Glacier in East Antarctica (66°41' S, 140°05' E), using both hydrostatic and tidal methods. The first method is based on new surface and ice thickness data from which the line of buoyant floatation is found. The second method uses kinematic GPS measurements of the tidal response of the ice surface. By detecting the transitions where the ice starts to move vertically in response to the tidal forcing we determine control points for the grounding line position along GPS profiles. Employing a two-dimensional elastic plate model, we compute the rigid short-term behaviour of the ice plate and estimate the correction required to compare the kinematic GPS control points with the previously determined line of floatation. These two approaches show consistency and lead us to propose a grounding line for the Astrolabe Glacier that significantly deviates from the lines obtained so far from satellite imagery.

Description: Extreme events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes have potentially devastating impacts on natural and engineered systems, and human communities, worldwide. Stakeholder decisions about critical infrastructures, natural resources, emergency preparedness and humanitarian aid typically need to be made at local to regional scales over seasonal to decadal planning horizons. However, credible climate change attribution and reliable projections at more localized and shorter time scales remain grand challenges. Long-standing gaps include inadequate understanding of processes such as cloud physics and ocean-land-atmosphere interactions, limitations of physics-based computer models, and the importance of intrinsic climate system variability at decadal horizons. Meanwhile, the growing size and complexity of climate data from model simulations and remote sensors increases opportunities to address these scientific gaps. This perspectives article explores the possibility that physically cognizant mining of massive climate data may lead to significant advances in generating credible predictive insights about climate extremes and in turn translating them to actionable metrics and information for adaptation and policy. Specifically, we propose that data mining techniques geared towards extremes can help tackle the grand challenges in the development of interpretable climate projections, predictability, and uncertainty assessments. To be successful, scalable methods will need to handle what has been called "Big Data" to tease out elusive but robust statistics of extremes and change from what is ultimately small data. Physically-based relationships (where available) and conceptual understanding (where appropriate) are needed to guide methods development and interpretation of results. Such approaches may be especially relevant in situations where computer models may not be able to fully encapsulate current process understanding, yet the wealth of data may offer additional insights. Large-scale interdisciplinary team efforts, involving domain experts and individual researchers who span disciplines, will be necessary to address the challenge.

Description: Extreme events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes have potentially devastating impacts on natural and engineered systems and human communities worldwide. Stakeholder decisions about critical infrastructures, natural resources, emergency preparedness and humanitarian aid typically need to be made at local to regional scales over seasonal to decadal planning horizons. However, credible climate change attribution and reliable projections at more localized and shorter time scales remain grand challenges. Long-standing gaps include inadequate understanding of processes such as cloud physics and ocean–land–atmosphere interactions, limitations of physics-based computer models, and the importance of intrinsic climate system variability at decadal horizons. Meanwhile, the growing size and complexity of climate data from model simulations and remote sensors increases opportunities to address these scientific gaps. This perspectives article explores the possibility that physically cognizant mining of massive climate data may lead to significant advances in generating credible predictive insights about climate extremes and in turn translating them to actionable metrics and information for adaptation and policy. Specifically, we propose that data mining techniques geared towards extremes can help tackle the grand challenges in the development of interpretable climate projections, predictability, and uncertainty assessments. To be successful, scalable methods will need to handle what has been called "big data" to tease out elusive but robust statistics of extremes and change from what is ultimately small data. Physically based relationships (where available) and conceptual understanding (where appropriate) are needed to guide methods development and interpretation of results. Such approaches may be especially relevant in situations where computer models may not be able to fully encapsulate current process understanding, yet the wealth of data may offer additional insights. Large-scale interdisciplinary team efforts, involving domain experts and individual researchers who span disciplines, will be necessary to address the challenge.

Description: In order to achieve climate change mitigation, long-term decisions are required that must be reconciled with other societal goals that draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of crop land, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. Here, we show that current impact-model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and propose a new risk-assessment and decision framework that accounts for competing interests. Based on cross-sectorally consistent simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we discuss potential gains and limitations of additional irrigation and trade-offs of the expansion of agricultural land as two possible response measures to climate change and growing food demand. We describe an illustrative example in which the combination of both measures may close the supply demand gap while leading to a loss of approximately half of all natural carbon sinks. We highlight current limitations of available simulations and additional steps required for a comprehensive risk assessment.