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  • English  (12)
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  • English  (12)
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  • 1
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    Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios (2022)
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-18
    Description: Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Safe and just Earth system boundaries (2023)
    In:  Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked[1,2,3], yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently[4,5]. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)[4]. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
    Description: Abstract Main Quantifying ESBs Toward a safe and just future Methods Data availability Code availability References Acknowledgements Funding Author information Ethics declarations Peer review Additional information Extended data figures and tables
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory (2023)
    In:  BioScience
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-02
    Description: Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in an uncharted territory. For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions because of escalating global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities that release harmful greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up. We are seeing the manifestation of those predictions as an alarming and unprecedented succession of climate records are broken, causing profoundly distressing scenes of suffering to unfold. We are entering an unfamiliar domain regarding our climate crisis, a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity. In the present report, we display a diverse set of vital signs of the planet and the potential drivers of climate change and climate-related responses first presented by Ripple and Wolf and colleagues (2020), who declared a climate emergency, now with more than 15,000 scientist signatories. The trends reveal new all-time climate-related records and deeply concerning patterns of climate-related disasters. At the same time, we report minimal progress by humanity in combating climate change. Given these distressing developments, our goal is to communicate climate facts and policy recommendations to scientists, policymakers, and the public. It is the moral duty of us scientists and our institutions to clearly alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action. This report is part of our series of concise and easily accessible yearly updates on the state of the climate crisis.
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Quantifying the human cost of global warming (2023)
    In:  Nature Sustainability
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (〉600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Focal mechanism inversion of the 2018 MW7.1 Anchorage earthquake based on high-rate GPS observation (2021)
    In:  Geodesy and Geodynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-08
    Description: The MW7.1 Anchorage earthquake is the most destructive earthquake since the 1964 MW9.2 great Alaska earthquake in the United States. In this study, high-rate GPS data and near-field broadband seismograms are used in separate and joint inversions by the generalized Cut-and-Paste (gCAP) method to estimate the focal mechanism. In order to investigate the influence of crustal velocity structure on the focal mechanism inversion results, two velocity models (Crust1.0 and Alaska Earthquake Center (AEC)) are used for detailed comparison and analysis. The results show that: (1) The two nodal planes of the optimal double-couple solution are nearly north-south striking, with dip angles of about 30° and 60°respectively, and the centroid focal depth is 54–55 km, which is an intraplate normal fault event. (2) The inversion results for the two types of data and the two velocity models are consistent with some previous studies, which indicates that the results are stable and reliable. The more accurate velocity structure model is helpful for focal mechanism inversion of the complex earthquake. (3) The inclusion of high-rate GPS data in joint inversion provides a more effective constraint on centroid depth. © 2021 The Authors
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    Fault Slip Model of the 2018 Mw 6.6 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, Japan, Earthquake Estimated from Satellite Radar and GPS Measurements (2019)
    In:  Remote Sensing
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-03
    Description: In this study, Sentinel-1 and Advanced Land Observation Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and global positioning system (GPS) data were used to jointly determine the source parameters and fault slip distribution of the Mw 6.6 Hokkaido eastern Iburi, Japan, earthquake that occurred on 5 September 2018. The coseismic deformation map obtained from the ascending and descending Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 InSAR data and GPS data is consistent with a thrust faulting event. A comparison between the InSAR-observed and GPS-projected line-of-sight (LOS) deformation suggests that descending Sentinel-1 track T046D, descending ALOS-2 track P018D, and ascending ALOS-2 track P112A and GPS data can be used to invert for the source parameters. The results of a nonlinear inversion show that the seismogenic fault is a blind NNW-trending (strike angle ~347.2°), east-dipping (dip angle ~79.6°) thrust fault. On the basis of the optimal fault geometry model, the fault slip distribution jointly inverted from the three datasets reveals that a significant slip area extends 30 km along the strike and 25 km in the downdip direction, and the peak slip magnitude can approach 0.53 m at a depth of 15.5 km. The estimated geodetic moment magnitude released by the distributed slip model is 6.16 ×1018 N⋅m , equivalent to an event magnitude of Mw 6.50, which is slightly smaller than the estimates of focal mechanism solutions. According to the Coulomb stress change at the surrounding faults, more attention should be paid to potential earthquake disasters in this region in the near future. In consideration of the possibility of multi-fault rupture and complexity of regional geologic framework, the refined distributed slip and seismogenic mechanism of this deep reverse faulting should be investigated with multi-disciplinary (e.g., geodetic, seismic, and geological) data in further studies.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Isotopic Compositions (Li‐B‐Si‐O‐Mg‐Sr‐Nd‐Hf‐Pb) and Fe2+/ΣFe Ratios of Three Synthetic Andesite Glass Reference Materials (ARM‐1, ARM‐2, ARM‐3) (2021)
    In:  Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-26
    Description: To expand the newly developed ARM glasses as reference materials for in situ microanalysis of isotope ratios and iron oxidation state by a variety of techniques such as SIMS, LA-MC-ICP-MS and EPMA, we report Li-B-Si-O-Mg-Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotope data and Fe2+/ΣFe ratios for these glasses. The data were mainly obtained by TIMS, MC-ICP-MS, IR-MS and wet-chemistry colorimetric techniques. The quality of these data was cross-checked by comparing different techniques or by comparing the results from different laboratories using the same technique. All three glasses appear to be homogeneous with respect to the investigated isotope ratios (except for B in ARM-3) and Fe2+/ΣFe ratios at the scale of sampling volume and level of the analytical precision of each technique. The homogeneity of Li-B-O-Nd-Pb isotope ratios at the microscale (30–120 μm) was estimated using LA-MC-ICP-MS and SIMS techniques. We also present new EPMA major element data obtained using three different instruments for the glasses. The determination of reference values for the major elements and their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level closely followed ISO guidelines and the Certification Protocol of the International Association of Geoanalysts. The ARM glasses may be particularly useful as reference materials for in situ isotope ratio analysis.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Runoff Response to Climate Change in Urumqi Glacier No. 1 Catchment over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-01
    Description: Glaciers are vital to water resources in the arid land of central Asia. Long-term runoff records in the glacierized area are particularly valuable in terms of evaluating glacier recession and water resource change on both a regional and global scale. The runoff records of streams draining basins with 46% current glacier cover, located at the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the source area of the Urumqi River in eastern Tianshan, central Asia, were examined for the purpose of assessing climatic and glacial influences on temporal patterns of streamflow for the period 1959–2019. This study has introduced a glacio-hydrologic degree-day model to separate the different hydrologic components in glacier-fed streamflow. Results suggest that runoff from the catchment correlates well with temperature and associated precipitation data. The different ways that the glacier melts in response to temperature versus precipitation in a diurnal scale by changing glacier mass balance can effectively stabilize streamflow, showing a strong capacity of the glacier to naturally adjust streamflow in a beneficial manner to water utilization by those downstream. Based on long-term in-situ observation, we found that the “peak water” of ice melt appeared during the period 1996~2019, which verified the modelling results from previous studies.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Match schemes of the modeled geophysical excitation functions for the Earth's polar motion prediction (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-29
    Description: The modeled geophysical angular momentum excitation functions (including the contributions of atmosphere, ocean, and hydrology) differ from the geodetic angular momentum excitation function (GAM). The former can simulate historical or forecast data based on the dynamic meteorological models with geodetic observations, while the latter can only get historical data through geodetic techniques such as global navigation satellite system (GNSS), very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), and satellite laser ranging (SLR). Because of potential observational errors and model deficiencies, gaps still exist between the two types of excitation functions in various timescale components. Thus, we must consider the effect of such gaps on the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) prediction. The key to further improving the prediction accuracy of EOP may rest in exploiting specific data processing approaches to address these gaps, so we conduct a detailed study on this issue. We analyze the differences and relations between the two types of excitation functions based on the Earth's rotation equation and its various timescale variational mechanisms. On this basis, we attempt to establish various matching schemes to reduce the gaps between the two types of excitation functions, exploit these schemes in the Earth's polar motion prediction, and compare the prediction results.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    On the sub-decadal LOD variations and signatures of core waves (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-28
    Description: The periodic (i.e., ~6-yr, 7-yrs, 8.6-yr) signals in LOD variation were confirmed recently, but their physical mechanisms are still uncertain. Sub-decadal waves inside the fluid outer core (FOC) are also inferred from modern geomagnetic observations. Is there any correlation between these sub-decadal LOD variations and the fast dynamics of Earth’s cores? In this presentation, we will first briefly review the recent findings of the sub-decadal signals in LOD variation, as well as the related geomagnetic observations; Second, we will discuss the potential mechanisms of the ~6-yr and 8.6-yr signals in LOD variation separately. As to the ~6-yr signal, inner core gravitational oscillation plays a key role in its excitation. For the ~8.6-yr LOD signal, it is found to be of very close correspondence with the geomagnetic jerks. To study this interesting phenomenon, we calculated the electromagnetic (EM) torque exerting on the mantle from the azimuthal core surface flow data during 1999-2021, and demonstrate the same ~8.6yr periodic components as those in LOD and good correspondence with the geomagnetic jerks. Next, the LOD change induced by these waves is also estimated in the geostrophic framework and is compared with the LOD observation. All these findings and discussion on their possible relationship and mechanism will be presented.
    Language: English
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