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  • Other Sources  (19)
  • English  (19)
  • 2020-2024  (17)
  • 2020-2022  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: Strain energy from tectonic loading can be partly released through aseismic creep. Earthquake repeaters, repeatedly activated brittle fault patches surrounded by creep, indicate steady‐state creep that affects the amount of seismic energy available for the next large earthquake along a plate contact. The offshore Main Marmara Fault (MMF) of the North Anatolian Fault Zone represents a seismic gap capable of generating a M 〉 7 earthquake in direct vicinity to the mega‐city Istanbul. Based on a newly compiled seismicity catalog, we identify repeating earthquakes to resolve the spatial creep variability along the MMF during a 15‐year period. We observe a maximum of seismic repeaters indicating creep along the central and western MMF segments tapering off toward the locked onshore Ganos fault in the west, and the locked offshore Princes Islands segment immediately south of Istanbul in the east. This indicates a high degree of spatial creep variability along the Istanbul‐Marmara seismic gap.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The relative motion of tectonic plates deforms these plates along their contact zone until the plate contact ruptures in an earthquake. However, some of this deformation can be released without earthquakes by so‐called aseismic creep in which the plates creep past each other. Within this creep zone, sometimes some brittle patches exist that interlock during the plate creep and rupture repeatedly in smaller earthquakes that are very similar. They are called earthquake repeaters. In the Sea of Marmara south of Istanbul lies the contact between the Eurasian and the Anatolian plates, the so‐called Main Marmara Fault (MMF). This plate contact did not rupture for a long time and thus a large magnitude event is expected here. We observe a large number of earthquake repeaters in the western offshore part of the MMF while no earthquake repeaters are found toward the east south of Istanbul or onshore toward the west. These areas seem to be locked and might accumulate deformation for a future large earthquake. The zones in between show an intermediate behavior with fewer earthquake repeaters indicating less creep. These results are important for the seismic risk and hazard assessment for the mega‐city of Istanbul.
    Description: Key Points: Earthquake repeaters along the Main Marmara Fault are identified based on a newly derived homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 15 years. Seismic creep estimated from these repeaters is highly variable along‐strike with higher creep values along the western part. A repeating earthquake sequence showing accelerated activity after a nearby Mw 5.2 earthquake is observed.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.2.2023.002
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TU
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/KO
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/PZ
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TB
    Description: http://alomax.free.fr/nlloc/
    Description: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7Efelixw/hypoDD.html
    Description: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3407866
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gc008515
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; repeating earthquakes ; Marmara Sea ; fault creep ; seismic cyle ; seismic gap
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In the Penninic nappe stack of the Western Alps, high‐ to ultrahigh‐pressure metamorphic ophiolites of the Zermatt‐Saas Zone are associated with slivers of continental crust. In one of these slivers, Monte Emilius, the overprinting of pre‐Alpine granulite‐facies rocks by subduction‐related, Alpine eclogite‐facies metamorphism can be studied. Mafic granulites were initially transformed into blueschists. In a second step, shear zones were developed in which the blueschists recrystallized to fine‐grained, foliated glaucophane eclogites, and eclogite veins. The combination of petrographic and field observations as well as whole‐rock compositions suggests that the eclogite assemblage formed only in shear zones where Ca‐metasomatism induced a change in major element composition. These substantial differences in bulk rock composition demonstrate how spatially limited eclogitization may be controlled by chemical redistribution, the degree of fabric development, and associated metamorphic reactions along fluid pathways. Thermodynamic modelling of selected bulk rock compositions yielded only slightly different conditions of 1.8 ± 0.1 GPa/550 ± 50°C for blueschist and 1.9–2.3 GPa/550 ± 50°C for eclogite, constraining Ca‐rich fluid infiltration and transformation to a depth of ~60–70 km. Eclogitization occurred in the Early Eocene at 52.96 ± 0.91 Ma, as indicated by a well‐defined Lu–Hf garnet isochron.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; eclogite ; Lu–Hf garnet geochronology ; Monte Emilius ; subduction ; thermodynamic modelling ; Zermatt–Saas zone
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Aseismic slip may occur during a long preparatory phase preceding earthquakes, and what controls it remains poorly understood. In this study, we explored the role of load point velocity and surface roughness on slow slip during the preparatory stage prior to stick‐slip events. To that end, we conducted displacement‐rate controlled friction experiments by imposing varying load point velocities on sawcut granite samples with different surface roughness at a confining pressure of 35 MPa. We measured the average slip along the fault with the recorded far‐field displacements and strain changes, while acoustic emission sensors and local strain gages were used to capture local slip variations. We found that the average amount of aseismic slip during the preparatory stage increases with roughness, whereas precursory slip duration decreases with increased load point velocity. These results reveal a complex slip pattern on rough faults which leads to dynamic ruptures at high load point velocities.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Earthquakes occur mostly along preexisting faults in the earth crust. These faults exhibit various geometrical complexities and are subjected to different strain rates. In the laboratory, we produce earthquake analogs by sliding sawcut granite blocks. We vary the geometrical complexity of the faults by roughening their surfaces and modify the strain rate by displacing the blocks at varying velocities. Under these different conditions, we measure how the forces accumulated by friction are released, by measuring stresses and displacements applied on the block's edges, using local strain deformation sensors, and by recording very small earthquakes occurring during sliding along the sawcut faults. We find that smooth sawcut faults tend to release all the energy accumulated very abruptly, after a very small amount of slip, regardless of the load point velocity applied. The processes leading to failure in the case of a rough fault are much more complex, involving a large amount of slip, and numerous small earthquakes which are distributed heterogeneously in space and time.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Acoustic emissions highlight the complex preparatory phase prior stick‐slips on rough faults〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Preparatory slip increases with roughness and the duration of the preparatory phase decreases with increasing load point velocity〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Rough and heterogeneous faults are more stable than smooth faults, but can become unstable with a small increase of load point velocity〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: SAIDAN
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6411819
    Keywords: ddc:550.78 ; rock friction ; roughness ; dynamic rupture ; acoustic emissions
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-11-23
    Description: There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE -Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and bioEnergy- Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g. the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: This paper analyzes the influence of the interannual variability of climatic drought on ecological and hydrological droughts for a basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees using variables derived from observations and hydro-ecological simulation in order to determine the possible connection between meteorological, ecological and hydrological drought considering a cascading approach and encompassing different variables that give insights into water availability in the basin (e.g., soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir storages and releases). Using different climatic, ecological and hydrological standardized drought indices, we show the greater role of meteorological droughts in hydrological systems than in ecological systems, and the small influence of vegetation activity and growth in explaining the interannual variability of water resources in the basin. By contrast,hydrological droughts are strongly affected by precipitation variability with relationships characterized by seasonal differences and the role of different time-scales in the standardized drought metrics.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: This chapter focuses on the methods used to predict the movement of parts of the Earth system towards tipping points. It begins by introducing the theory of critical slowing down (CSD), a general phenomenon of slowing recovery from perturbations that happens in many systems being forced slowly towards a tipping point. Then, it describes the various methods that can be used to estimate the occurrence of CSD and the approach of a tipping point, beginning with methods based on changes over time in the system, spatial changes, or changes in network structure, up to more advanced modelling techniques, including AI. These ‘early warning signals’ (EWS) can be used on data from a number of different sources, be these models, field experiments or remotely sensed data from satellites. The chapter considers various case studies that use real-world observations, to show how these methods are being used to predict losses in resilience in these systems. Finally, it explores limitations and potential solutions in the field of EWS, looking ahead to advances in data availability and what this could mean for predicting the movement towards tipping in these Earth systems in the future.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: Climate change has been labelled the human rights challenge of the twenty-first century. Loss and damage resulting from climate change, in particular, poses a severe threat to the human rights of affected communities. However, the international response to climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has thus far insufficiently taken human rights into account, contributing to policy outcomes inadequate to protecting communities affected by loss and damage. This article proposes the adoption of a human rights-based approach as a strategic tool for policymakers to strengthen the international response to loss and damage. The approach builds on the existing obligations of Parties under international and regional human rights treaties and provides a method for systematically integrating human rights that goes beyond mere mainstreaming of human rights. Specifically, the article identifies opportunities for anchoring such an approach under the Warsaw International Mechanism and key mechanisms for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Conversely, it considers the integration of loss and damage in the work of relevant human rights bodies, specifically the United Nations Human Rights Council and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Delft University of Technology
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: This deliverable 5.2 is a compilation of novel research of 16 coal-and-carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs). These case studies were carried under the umbrella of the Tipping Plus project from 2020 until 2023. This collection presents empirical data and their analysis on the diverse transition processes in CCIRs. This report helps define the boundaries of the CCIR and to develop the narratives for each case study considering perspectives from different disciplines across the work packages: WP1 (geography including demography), WP2 (culture & social psychology), WP3 (policy, politics & governance) and WP4 (economics). Empirical findings help to critically study the concept of socio-ecological tipping points. Additionally, each case study presents key trends, and factors that either enable or hinder low-carbon transitions. This novel collection was a collective work of more than fourty-five partners from the Tipping Plus consortium.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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