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  • Articles  (231)
  • climate change
  • Springer  (231)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: The long-term warming of the ocean is a critical indicator of both the past and present state of the climate system. It also provides insights about the changes to come, owing to the persistence of both decadal variations and secular trends, which the ocean records extremely well (Hansen et al., 2011; IPCC, 2013; Rhein et al., 2013; Trenberth et al., 2016; Abram et al., 2019). It is well established that the emission of greenhouse gasses by human activities is mainly responsible for global warming since the industrial revolution (IPCC, 2013; Abram et al., 2019). The increased concentration of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has interfered with natural energy flows. Currently there is an energy imbalance in the Earth’s climate system of almost 1 W m−2 (Trenberth et al., 2014; von Schuckmann et al., 2016, 2020a; Wijffels et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2018; Cheng et al., 2019a; von Schuckmann et al., 2020a). Over 90% of this excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, leading to an increase of ocean heat content (OHC) and sea level rise, mainly through thermal expansion and melting of ice over land. These processes provide a useful means to quantify climate change. The first global OHC time series by Levitus et al. (2000) identified a robust long-term 0−3000 m ocean warming from 1948−98. Since then, many other analyses of global and regional OHC data have been performed. Here, we provide the first analysis of recent ocean heating, incorporating 2020 measurements through 2020 into our analysis.
    Description: Published
    Description: 523–530
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: ocean temperature ; climate change ; climate change
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-11-26
    Description: Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.
    Description: Published
    Description: 25
    Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Precipitation ; Roman Empire ; miracles ; Social feedbacks ; Cultural change ; climate change
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Borehole temperature ; climate change ; inversion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) inferred from borehole temperaturedepth (T-z) data are often degraded, to a various extent, by random or systematic noise in theT-z data and in the measurements of thermophysical properties of the earth. To minimize the effects of noise, and hence improve the fidelity of the inferred GSTH, a plausible approach is to perform a simultaneous inversion, of theT-z logs in a region, or alternatively, to invert the individualT-z logs and then average the resulting GSTHs. Averaging and simultaneous inversion are conceptually different: whereas an averaging can always be peformed, a simultaneous inversion is predicated on the assumption of a common transient component of the GSTH in all theT-z logs. In this work we examine and compare the two approaches, using a time domain inverse formulation based on the method of least squares. We consider a set of scenarios: (a) multipleT-z logs from a single borehole, (b) multiple boreholes from a single site, (c) multiple boreholes in similar climatological settings, and (d) multiple boreholes in different climatological settings. We show that for (a), (b) and (c), averaging and simultaneous inversion yield nearly identical results. For boreholes in different settings, the assumption of a common transient GSTH may be invalid and averaging and simultaneous inversion give divergent results.
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: rice ; GIS ; climate change ; model ; Asia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A cooperative project between the International Rice Research Institute in Los Baños, Philippines, and the U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, was initiated to estimate how rice yield in Asia might be affected by future climate change and enhanced UV-B irradiance following stratospheric ozone depletion. A radiative transfer model was used to estimate daily UV-B irradiance levels using remotely sensed ozone and cloud cover data for 1274 meteorological stations. A rice yield model using daily climatic data and cultivar-specific coefficients was used to predict changes in yield under given climate change scenarios. This paper gives an overview of the data required to run these two models and describes how a geographical information system (GIS) was used as a data pre- or postprocessor. Problems in finding reliable datasets such as cloud cover data needed for the UV-B radiation model and radiation data needed for the rice yield model are discussed. Issues of spatial and temporal scales are also addressed. Using simulation models at large spatial scales helped identify weaknesses of GIS data overlay and interpolation capabilities. Even though we focussed our efforts on paddy rice, the database is not intended to be system specific and could also be used to analyze the response of other natural systems to climatic change.
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Late Quaternary ; diatoms ; pollen ; climate change ; tephra ; shallow alpine and sub-alpine Iakes ; British Columbia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The late Quaternary diatom records from alpine Opabin Lake (altitude 2285 m a.s.l.) and sub-alpine Mary Lake (altitude 2054 m a.s.l.), located in Yoho National Park, British Columbia (lat. 51 ° 21′N; long. 116 ° 20′), have been analyzed, and changes in these records have been used to reconstruct lake histories. The results have also been related to independently inferred vegetation and climate changes. Following deglaciation, when both lakes were receiving high inputs of clastic materials, benthic diatom taxa dominate the records of these two shallow lakes with small species ofFragilaria being particularly prominent. During the early to mid-Holocene period, when treeline was at a higher elevation than today, the diatom flora of both lakes became more diverse with previously minor species becoming more prominent.Cyclotella radiosa occurs in cores from both Mary Lake, and much deeper, neighbouring Lake O'Hara during the warm early Holocene, and may reflect this warmer climate, a longer ice-free season than presently, and perhaps less turbid water, or its presence may reflect a subtly higher nutrient status of the lake water during this period. The Neoglacial is marked by increased amounts of sediments originating from glacial sources in Opabin Lake, which undoubtedly led to very turbid water, and by the presence ofEllerbeckia arenaria f.teres andCampylodiscus noricus v.hibernica in Opabin Lake; however, these species are absent from Mary Lake which has not been influenced by either glacial activity since the recession of the glaciers prior toc. 10 000 years BP or water originating from Opabin Lake. The impact of the two tephras during the Holocene was dramatic in terms of increased diatom production, as exemplified by the increases in diatom numbers, but there was little effect upon species composition. The diatom records and changes in the diatom:cyst ratio suggest that the chemical status of these two small, shallow lakes has changed little during the Holocene, other than after deposition of the two tephras. These results provide evidence that shallow alpine and high sub-alpine lakes are sensitive recorders of past environmental changes.
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  • 8
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    Journal of paleolimnology 12 (1994), S. 65-74 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: forest dynamics ; peatland development ; mountain environments ; Castanea ; Sphagnum ; Quaternary ; pollen analysis ; human impact ; climate change ; USSR
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A pollen sequence spanning over 4000 years was recovered from a small (0.1 ha)Sphagnum-dominated peatland in the mountains near Sukhumi, Abkhasia, West Georgia. The peatland lies atc. 1650 m a.s.l. in denseFagus-Abies forest. The pollen record reveals totally forested surroundings throughout since at least 4000 years BP (90–95% AP). It begins with a complex forest dominated byFagus with large proportions ofCastanea, Acer andUlmus. ThenCastanea became dominant whileFagus was still prominent. This might indicate a warmer climate. Later development shows a dramatic decline ofCastanea. Its pollen drops down to 3–5%. RecentlyAbies has been experiencing an exponential growth. Now it comprises over 50% of the forest composition around the peatland. These changes have possibly been caused by human influence together with climatic change. The basin started as aPotamogeton-dominated shallow lake with ferns andAlisma along the margins. Later it developed into a sedge fen and finally aSphagnum andMenyanthes poor fen with scatteredCarex limosa. The record indicates a progression towards oligotrophy.
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  • 9
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: carbon cycling ; climate change ; organic matter ; peat ; peatland ; Sphagnum
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Using210Pb-dating of peat cores, corroborated by pollen and acid-insoluble ash approaches, rates of vertical height growth, dry mass accumulation, and organic matter accumulation were determined for fiveSphagnum-dominated peatland sites (one in Minnesota, one in Pennsylvania, one on the Maryland/West Virginia border, two in West Virginia), spanning a mean annual temperature range of 4.5 °C and differing in total annual precipitation by a factor of almost 2. Site differences in rates of vertical height growth and dry mass accumulation were documented, but both within-core and between-site differences in bulk density and ash concentrations of peat confound efforts to relate vertical height growth and dry mass accumulation to net organic matter accumulation. Taking bulk densities and ash concentrations into account, rates of net organic matter accumulation over the past 150–200 years were strikingly similar at four of the five sites, an unexpected result given the general trend that with decreasing latitude, peat deposits become older, thinner, and more highly decomposed. More comprehensive studies are needed in which net organic matter accumulation is determined at several locations within a single peatland, at several peatlands within a particular geographic/climatic region, and at peatland sites in different geographic/climatic regions. If additional studies confirm that recent (past 200 years) net organic matter accumulation is relatively insensitive to broad-scale regional climatic differences, boreal and subarctic peatlands may continue to function as a net sink for atmospheric CO2 and a net source of atmospheric CH4 with no change in rates of net organic matter accumulation, even under predicted scenarios of global climate change.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Lake Baikal ; Russia ; paleolimnology ; diatoms ; chrysophyte cysts ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in a 100 m sediment core from Lake Baikal, Siberia. The core was recovered from the lake's central basin at a water depth of 365 m. Microfossil abundance varied greatly within the intervals sampled, ranging from samples devoid of siliceous microfossils to samples with up to 3.49 × 1011 microfossils g-1 sediment. Fluctuations in abundance appear to reflect trends in the marine δ18O record, with peak microfossil levels generally representing climate optima. Microfossil taxa present in sampled intervals changed considerably with core depth. Within each sample a small number of endemic diatom species dominated the assemblage. Changes in dominant endemic taxa between sampled intervals ranged from extirpation of some taxa, to shifts in quantitative abundance. Differences in microfossil composition and the association of variations in abundance with climate fluctuations suggest rapid speciation in response to major climatic excursions.
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  • 11
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Antarctica ; saline lakes ; weightedaveraging ; transfer function ; diatom analysis ; palaeolimnology ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The relationship between surface sediment diatom assemblages and measured limnological variables in thirty-three coastal Antarctic lakes from the Vestfold Hills was examined by constructing a diatom-water chemistry dataset. Previous analysis of this dataset by canonical correspondence analysis revealed that salinity accounted for a significant amount of the variation in the distribution of the diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration of this diatom-salinity relationship was used to establish a transfer function for the reconstruction of past lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration with classical deshrinking provided the best model for salinity reconstructions and this was applied to the fossil diatom assemblages from one of the saline lakes in the Vestfold Hills in order to assess its potential for palaeosalinity and palaeoclimate reconstruction.
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  • 12
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    Journal of paleolimnology 20 (1998), S. 253-265 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Late Quaternary ; diatoms ; climate change ; vegetation change ; shallow ; subalpine ; Crowfoot Lake ; Alberta ; paleolimnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The late Quaternary diatom record from subalpine Crowfoot Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta (lat. 51° 61′N; long. 116° 31′W) has been analyzed. Results are related to independently inferred vegetation and climate changes. No diatoms were found in the basal diamict that predates 11330 14C yr BP. Very few occur until ca. 10 10014 C yr BP probably due to the short time between de-glaciation and an advance of the Crowfoot Glacier during the ‘Younger Dryas Chron’. Initial pioneering species were characteristic of alkaline water and calcareous organic sediments. They appeared as sediments became organic and laminated suggesting increasing water clarity, and as the Pinus-dominated forest expanded and the climate warmed. After ca. 9060 14C yr BP diatom numbers increased rapidly, reaching a maximum prior to the Mazama tephra; they remained high until ca. 3500 14C yr BP. The period between ca. 9060 and 3500 14C yr saw timberline elevation increase and the dominance of xerophytic taxa. These are consistent with early to mid-Holocene warmth and aridity. Diatom productivity reflects the warm climate and presumably longer ice-free season, a stable catchment and transparent water. Decreases in diatom productivity coincide with a vegetation change with reduction of xerophytic taxa and the appearance of a closed Picea-Abies forest, hence a cooler, wetter climate at ca. 4100 to 3500 14C yr BP. The diatom numbers during the Neoglacial were of the same magnitude as prior to ca. 9060 14C yr BP. Small species of Fragilaria (overwhelmingly Fragilaria construens v. venter) became extremely dominant during the period of high diatom productivity, and remained so thereafter. Recovery of the lake appears to have been rapid after deposition of the Mazama tephra. Maximum occurrence of Cyclotella radiosa occurred ca. 8000 14C yr BP during the warm early Holocene and may reflect this warmer climate, a longer ice-free season than presently, perhaps less turbid water, or it may reflect a subtly higher nutrient status of the lake water. The diatom record of Crowfoot Lake has responded with sensitivity, particularly in terms of productivity, to the Holocene vegetation and climate changes.
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  • 13
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    Journal of paleolimnology 5 (1991), S. 115-126 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Lake Lahontan ; lake-level change ; climate change ; paleolimnology ; paleohydrology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Radiocarbon and uranium-series ages of a variety of materials from the Lahontan basin indicate that the last highstand lake occurred between 14 500 and 13 000 yr B.P. Although few in number, existing radiocarbon and uranium-series age data also indicate that lakes in the western Lahontan subbasins were small or moderate in size between 30 000 and 25 000 yr B.P. Existing data do not support the conclusions of Bradbury et al. (1989) who did not find evidence of a 14 000±yr B.P. highstand lake in the sediments of the Walker Lake subbasin. These data also do not support the existence of a highstand lake in the Walker Lake subbasin between 30 000 and 25 000 yr B.P.
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  • 14
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 249-267 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; river diversion ; climate change ; pollen ; diatoms ; ostracodes ; brine shrimp
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology.
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  • 15
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: diatoms ; paleolimnology ; palynology ; Holocene ; climate change ; Lake Baikal
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The biostratigraphy of fossil diatoms contributes important chronologic, paleolimnologic, and paleoclimatic information from Lake Baikal in southeastern Siberia. Diatoms are the dominant and best preserved microfossils in the sediments, and distinctive assemblages and species provide inter-core correlations throughout the basin at millennial to centennial scales, in both high and low sedimentation-rate environments. Distributions of unique species, once dated by radiocarbon, allow diatoms to be used as dating tools for the Holocene history of the lake. Diatom, pollen, and organic geochemical records from site 305, at the foot of the Selenga Delta, provide a history of paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic changes from the late glacial (15 ka) through the Holocene. Before 14 ka diatoms were very rare, probably because excessive turbidity from glacial meltwater entering the lake impeded productivity. Between 14 and 12 ka, lake productivity increased, perhaps as strong winds promoted deep mixing and nutrient regeneration. Pollen evidence suggests a cold shrub — steppe landscape dominated the central Baikal depression at this time. As summer insolation increased, conifers replaced steppe taxa, but diatom productivity declined between 11 and 9 ka perhaps as a result of increased summer turbidity resulting from violent storm runoff entering the lake via short, steep drainages. After 8 ka, drier, but more continental climates prevailed, and the modern diatom flora of Lake Baikal came to prominence. On Academician Ridge, a site of slow sedimentation rates, Holocene diatom assemblages at the top of 10-m cores reappear at deeper levels suggesting that such cores record at least two previous interglacial (or interstadial?) periods. Nevertheless, distinctive species that developed prior to the last glacial period indicate that the dynamics of nutrient cycling in Baikal and the responsible regional climatic environments were not entirely analogous to Holocene conditions. During glacial periods, the deep basin sediments of Lake Baikal are dominated by rapidly deposited clastics entering from large rivers with possibly glaciated headwaters. On the sublacustrine Academician Ridge (depth = 300 m), however, detailed analysis of the diatom biostratigraphy indicates that diastems (hiatuses of minor duration) and (or) highly variable rates of accumulation complicate paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic reconstructions from these records.
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  • 16
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: maritime Antarctic ; Signy Island ; lakes ; sediments ; Pb-210 ; Cs-137 ; radionuclide fluxes ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Sediment cores from three lakes (Moss, Sombre and Heywood) in the maritime Antarctic (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands) have been successfully dated radiometrically by210Pb and137Cs. The core inventories of both fallout radionuclides are an order of magnitude higher than that which can be supported by the direct atmospheric flux at this latitude. The elevated values may be explained by fallout onto the catchment during the winter being delivered directly to the lakes during the annual thaw. Two of the lakes (Sombre and Heywood) show marked increases in sediment accumulation afterc. 1950. This appears to be associated with a documented rise in temperature in the South Orkney Islands, which has caused extensive deglaciation at Signy Island.
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  • 17
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    Journal of paleolimnology 20 (1998), S. 205-215 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: subarctic lakes ; diatoms ; paleolimnology ; climate change ; Cyclotella ; Finnish Lapland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Diatoms were analysed from a 30-cm long sediment core obtained from remote subarctic Lake Saanaärvi (69°03′N, 20°52′E) in order to trace possible changes in the lake. Diatom assemblages were relatively constant throughout the core, except in the top 4–5 cm (approx 1850 A.D.) where relative frequencies of Aulacoseira italica subsp. subarctica, A. lirata var. biseriata, Cyclotella comensis and C. glomerata increased markedly. No significant trends were observed in the weighted averaging (WA) reconstructed pH values. Several hypotheses, including (i) airborne pollution, (ii) climatic change, and (iii) catchment disturbances have been put forth to explain the recent changes in diatom assemblages. The diatom change coincides with a marked increase in mean annual temperature that has been documented in the area since the termination of the Little Ice Age. Our evidence favours climate change as the main causative mechanism for the observed diatom compositional changes, although other explanations cannot be ruled out.
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  • 18
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: environmental magnetism ; lacustrine marl ; late Glacial ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We present the results of mineral magnetic measurements and geochemical analyses of late Glacial sediments from two marl-precipitating lakes in the Northwest of England. Mineral magnetic assemblages dominated by detrital and/or authigenic ferrimagnetic minerals, and enhanced delivery of metal elements, characterise a lower (Oldest Dryas) and an upper (Younger Dryas) phase of catchment instability, with detrital clay and silt sedimentation. Magnetic mineral assemblages with lower concentrations of finer ferrimagnetic grains characterise the authigenic carbonate sediments (marls). The marls indicate both enhanced lake productivity and catchment stability in response to prevailing warm conditions during the Bølling - Allerød Interstadial. The Bølling - Allerød marl phase contains two short-term, low amplitude shifts characterised by changes in the concentration and the size of ferrimagnetic grains. These shifts may represent the Older Dryas and the Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation, short-lived Northern hemisphere climatic deteriorations. Overall, the results suggest that marl lakes are sensitive indicators of Lateglacial climatic change, and that these changes are readily identifiable through the use of mineral magnetic measurements.
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  • 19
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    Journal of paleolimnology 23 (2000), S. 49-56 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Trichoptera ; caddisflies ; late glacial ; Allerød ; Younger Dryas ; early Holocene ; Kråkenes ; palaeolimnology ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Fossil Trichoptera (caddisfly) remains have been identified and quantitatively recorded in the late-glacial and early-Holocene sediments from Kråkenes Lake, western Norway. The sediment sequence was deposited between 12,300 and 8850 14C BP, covering the Allerød, Younger Dryas, and early-Holocene periods. The first Trichoptera were recorded at 12,000 14C BP, and during the Allerod a diverse assemblage of Limnephilidae taxa developed in the lake. By about 11,400 14C BP the relatively thermophilous Polycentropus flavomaculatus and Limnephilus rhombicus were present, suggesting that the summer water temperature was at least 17 °C. This temperature fell by 5-8 °C at the start of the Younger Dryas, and the thermophilous taxa were replaced within 20-40 14C yrs by Apatania spp., including the arctic-alpine A. zonella, suggesting a maximum summer water temperature of 10-12 °C. The Trichoptera assemblage was impoverished in numbers and in diversity over the next 200 yrs as the severe conditions of the Younger Dryas developed. As soon as temperatures rose and glacial meltwater and silt input ended about 700 14C yrs later, the resident Apatania assemblage expanded immediately, within 10 yrs. About 130 yrs later, thermophilous taxa replaced Apatania, and a much more diverse assemblage than in the Allerod occupied the varied habitats made available by the development of the Holocene lake ecosystem. The 130 yr delay may have been caused by a gradual temperature increase crossing a critical threshold, or by the time taken for thermophilous taxa to migrate from their Younger Dryas refugia.
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  • 20
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Lake Baikal ; diatoms ; biogenic silica ; Eemian ; climate change ; Siberia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The discussion on climatic instability observed in Greenland ice cores during the Eemian period (substage 5e) resulted in discovery of a pronounced mid-Eemian cooling event. We report that the mid-Eemian cooling is found for the first time in the biogenic silica climatic record and microfossil abundance record of Lake Baikal. Timing of this event in Lake Baikal correlates well with timing of the European pollen records and marine sedimentary records. The presence of the mid-Eemian cooling signal in the Lake Baikal record suggests a much closer link between Asian climate influenced by strong pressure fields over the vast land masses and the climate-controlling processes in the North Atlantic during interglacial periods, than what was generally believed. Furthermore, the Lake Baikal record suggests that after the mid-Eemian cooling, the climatic conditions returned close to the warmth of the 5e optimum and thus argues that the warm conditions of the last interglacial persisted in Siberia throughout 5e, and did not end with the mid-Eemian cooling as suggested by several published marine records.
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    Journal of paleolimnology 24 (2000), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Arctic ; Holocene ; paleohydrology ; paleolimnology ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.
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  • 22
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: diatoms ; climate change ; temperature ; pH ; transfer functions ; lake sediments
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R2 jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R2 and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R2 jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R2 jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed.
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  • 23
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Africa ; climate change ; conductivity ; diatoms ; Ethiopia ; Holocene ; lake levels ; palaeolimnology ; Rift Valley
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A 6,500-year diatom stratigraphy has been used to infer hydrochemical changes in Lake Awassa, a topographically closed oligosaline lake in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. Conductivity was high from ~6400-6200 BP, and from 5200-4000 BP, with two brief episodes of lower conductivity during the latter period. Although the timing of the conductivity changes is similar to the timing of lake-level change in the nearby Zwai-Shalla basin, their directions are the reverse of that expected from a climatic cause. Dissolution of the tephras which precede both phases of high conductivity cannot explain the increases in salinity, because rhyolitic tephras are only sparingly soluble. Instead, the pulsed input of groundwater made saline by the reaction of silicate minerals and volcanic glass with carbonic acid, formed from the solution of carbon dioxide degassed from magma under the Awassa Caldera, is suggested as a plausible mechanism for the observed change in lake chemistry. Diatom-inferred hydrochemistry cannot therefore be used to reconstruct climate change in Lake Awassa.
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  • 24
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: stable isotopes ; ostracods ; climate change ; late glacial ; holocene ; seasonal effects
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract High-resolution oxygen-isotope records of benthic ostracods and molluscs from Ammersee, southern Germany, show high-frequency climatic changes during the last deglaciation and parallel in great detail published faunal and floral variations reconstructed from Norwegian Sea sediments and isotope variations in Greenland ice cores. The marine and the terrestrial records give evidence of a synchronous late glacial climatic development in Greenland, NW- and Mid-Europe. However,14C-ages of the supraregional climatic events and of two tephra layers in the marine sediments of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean are significantly older than the14C-ages of the corresponding horizons on land. These differences strongly suggest that major short-term events have affected the exchangeable carbon on earth during the dramatic environmental changes related to the deglaciation and in particular have affected the CO2-distribution within the ocean and between ocean and atmosphere. Dating methods independent of climatic variations and of the global carbon budget should be given priority to refine the timescales of the marine and atmospheric processes during the last deglaciation.
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    Journal of paleolimnology 14 (1995), S. 165-184 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Lake Baikal ; Russia ; paleolimnology ; diatoms ; chrysophyte cysts ; Little Ice Age ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract As part of the international cooperative Baikal Drilling Project, siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in two short (∼ 30-cm) sediment cores from Lake Baikal. One core was recovered from the north basin (Core 324, 55°15′N, 109°30′E), a second from between the central and southern basins (Core 316, 52°28′N, 106°5′E). The northern core had higher amounts of biogenic silica (40 g SiO2 per 100 g dry weight sediment) compared to the southern core, and increased deposition in the more recent sediments. Weight percent biogenic silica was lower in the southern core, ranging from approximately 20–30 g SiO2 per 100 g dry weight sediment throughout the entire core. Trends in absolute microfossil abundance mirror those of biogenic silica, with generally greater abundance in the northern core (86–275×106 microfossils g−1 dry sediment) compared to the southern core (94–163×106 microfossils g−1 dry sediment). Cluster analyses using relative abundance of the dominant diatom and chrysophyte taxa revealed four zones of microfossil succession in each core. Microfossil assemblage succession in the north basin may be reflecting shifts in nutrient supply and cycling driven by climatic changes. The most recent sediments in the northern basin (Zone 1,c. 1890's–1991 A.D.) were characterized by an increased abundance ofAulacoseira baicalensis andAulacoseira ‘spore’. Zone 3 (c. 1630's–1830's A.D.) was dominated by the endemicCyclotella spp. and reduced abundance of theAulacoseira spp. Zone 3 corresponds approximately to the Little Ice Age, a cooler climatic period. The microfossil assemblages between Zones 1 and 3 (Zone 2,c. 1830's–1890's A.D.) and below Zone 3 (Zone 4,c. 830's–1430's A.D.) are similar to one another suggesting they represent transitional intervals between warm and cold periods. Southern basin sediments record similar changes in the endemic taxa. However, the increased abundance of non-endemic planktonic taxa (e.g.Stephanodiscus binderanus, Synedra acus, Cyclostephanos dubius) during two periods in recent history (post World War II and late 1700's) suggests evidence for anthropogenic induced changes in southern Lake Baikal.
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    Journal of paleolimnology 15 (1996), S. 133-145 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Bahamas ; Holocene ; fire history ; climate change ; human disturbance ; charcoal stratigraphy ; pollen analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A 2 m sediment core from Church's Blue Hole on Andros Island, Bahamas provides the first paleoecological record from the Bahama Archipelago. The timing of events in the lower portion of the core is uncertain due to inconsistencies in the radiocarbon chronology, but there is evidence that a late Holocene dry period altered the limnology of Church's Blue Hole and supported only dry shrubland around the site. The dry period on Andros may correlate with a widespread dry period in the Caribbean from 3200 to 1500 yr BP. After the dry period ended, a more mesic climate supported tropical hardwood thicket around Church's Blue Hole. At c. 740 radiocarbon yr BP there is a sudden rise in charcoal concentration and a rapid transition to pinewoods vegetation, while at c. 430 radiocarbon yr BP charcoal concentration drops, but is higher again near the top of the core. Although climatic shifts could have caused these changes in vegetation and charcoal concentration, the changes post-date human colonization of the Bahamas and may reflect human arrival, followed by the removal of humans c. 1530 AD and the recolonization of Andros Island c. 200 years later.
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  • 27
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: carbon storage ; lake sediment ; Holocene ; Canada ; climate change ; organic matter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports a first estimate of the Holocene lake sediment carbon pool in Alberta, Canada. The organic matter content of lake sediment does not appear to depend strongly on lake size or other limnological parameters, allowing a simple first estimate in which we assume all Alberta lake sediment to have the same organic matter content. Alberta lake sediments sequester about 15 g C m-2 yr-1, for a provincial total of 0.23 Tg C yr-1, or 2.3 Pg C over the Holocene. Alberta lakes may represent as much as 1/1700 of total global, annual permanent carbon sequestration.
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    Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems 37 (1994), S. 213-225 
    ISSN: 1573-0867
    Keywords: Methane ; nitrous oxide ; emission inventories ; climate change ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Methane and nitrous oxide are important greenhouse gases. They contribute to global warming. To a large extent, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are connected with the intensification of food production. Therefore, feeding a growing world population and at the same time controlling these emissions is a great challenge. Important anthropogenic sources of biogenic methane are wet rice fields, cattle, animal waste, landfills and biomass burning. Important anthropogenic sources of biogenic nitrous oxide are land-use change, fertilizer production and use and manure application. The ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change implies a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. As a small first step towards achieving this objective, the Convention requires the industrialized countries to bring their anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases by 2000 back to 1990 levels. It was also agreed that all parties would make national inventories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and programmes for control (UN, 1992). In this context, in February 1993 an international workshop was held in Amersfoort in the Netherlands to discuss methods in national emission inventories for methane and nitrous oxide, and options for control (Van Amstel, 1993). A selection of the papers presented in Amersfoort that focus on agricultural sources is published in this volume. This introductory chapter gives background information on biogenic sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide and options for their control. The goal of the Climate Convention is described as well as the IPCC effort to develop an internationally accepted methodology for the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. Finally, some preliminary results from country inventories are given. It is concluded that a common reporting framework and transparency of the inventories are important to obtain comparable results that can be used for complying with the requirements of the Climate Convention and for facilitating the international debate about appropriate response strategies.
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  • 29
    ISSN: 1573-0867
    Keywords: climate change ; methane ; nitrous oxide
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Increasing concentrations of methane (CH4) in the atmosphere are projected to account for about 25% of the net radiative forcing. Biospheric emissions of CH4 to the atmosphere total approximately 400 Tg C y-1. An estimated 300 Tg of CH4-C y-1 is oxidized in the atmosphere by hydroxyl radicals while about 40 Tg y-1 remains in the atmosphere. Approximately 40 Tg y-1 of the atmospheric burden is oxidized in aerobic soils. Research efforts during the past several years have focused on quantifying CH4 sources while relatively less effort has been directed toward quantifying and understanding the soil sink for atmospheric CH4. Recent research has demonstrated that land use change, including agricultural use of native forest and grassland systems has decreased the soil sink for atmospheric methane. Some agricultural systems consume atmospheric CH4 at rates less than 10% of those found in comparable undisturbed soils. While it has been necessary to change land use practices over the past centuries to meet the required production of food and fiber, we need to recognize and account for impacts of land use change on the biogeochemical nutrient cycles in the biosphere. Changes that have ensued in these cycles have and will impact the atmospheric concentrations of CH4 and N2O. Since CH4 and N2O production and consumption are accomplished by a variety of soil microorganisms, the influence of changing agricultural, forest, and, demographic patterns has been large. Existing management and technological practices may already exist to limit the effect of land use change and agriculture on trace gas fluxes. It is therefore important to understand how management and land use affect trace gas fluxes and to observe the effect of new technology on them. This paper describes the role of aerobic soils in the global CH4 budget and the impact of agriculture on this soil CH4 sink. Examples from field studies made across subarctic, temperate and tropical climate gradients in grasslands are used to demonstrate the influence of nutrient cycle perturbations on the soil consumption of atmospheric CH4 and in increased N2O emissions.
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    Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems 58 (2000), S. 179-199 
    ISSN: 1573-0867
    Keywords: climate change ; databases ; GIS ; methane ; rice ; soils ; weather
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract As part of a series of papers describing the use of a simulation model to extrapolate experimental measurements of methane (CH4) emissions from rice fields in Asia and to evaluate the large-scale effect of various mitigation strategies, the collation and derivation of the spatial databases used are described. Daily weather data, including solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperatures, and rainfall were collated from 46 weather stations from the five countries in the study, namely China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand. Quantitative soil data relevant to the input requirements of the model were derived by combining data from the World Inventory of Soil Emissions (WISE) database, the ISIS database, and the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World (FAO-DSMW). These data included soil pH; organic carbon content; sand, silt, and clay fractions; and iron content for top and subsoil layers, and average values of bulk density and available water capacity for the whole profile. Data on the areas allocated to irrigated, rainfed, upland, and deepwater rice at the province or district level were derived from the Huke & Huke (1997) database developed at IRRI. Using a geographical information system (GIS), a series of georeferenced data sets on climate, soils, and land use were derived for each country, at the province or district level. A summary of the soil-related derived databases is presented and their applicationn for use in global change modeling discussed.
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    Landscape ecology 4 (1990), S. 133-155 
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: land use ; climate ; climate change ; land use alteration ; landscape patterns ; weather
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the physical linkage between the surface and the atmosphere, and demonstrates how even slight changes in surface conditions can have a pronounced effect on weather and climate. Observational and modeling evidence are presented to demonstrate the influence of landscape type on the overlying atmospheric conditions. The albedo, and the fractional partitioning of atmospheric turbulent heat flux into sensible and latent fluxes is shown to be particularly important in directly affecting local and regional weather and climate. It is concluded that adequate assessment of global climate and climate change cannot be achieved unless mesoscale landscape characteristics and their changes over time can be accurately determined.
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  • 32
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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    Landscape ecology 10 (1995), S. 349-362 
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: climate change ; FAO ; geographic information system ; global carbon cycle ; Kansas ; Montana ; soil maps ; soil organic matter ; soil taxonomy ; soil texture ; STATSGO
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Several factors affecting stocks of soil organic-C have been identified, including climate, soil texture, and drainage, but how these factors and their influence vary spatially is not well documented. The State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) was used to estimate soil organic-C stocks of Montana and Kansas and to map spatial variation of soil properties. Regressions across map units of area-weighted estimates of soil organic-C, clay content, and drainage class show that clay content is positively correlated with organic-C in Kansas, but that drainage class is a better indicator of soil with high and low organic-C stocks in Montana. About 85% of Kansas is covered by Mollisols. These grasslands of the North American Great Plains are where the paradigm relating clay content to stabilization of soil organic-C was developed. In contrast, clay content does not covary with soil organic-C across Montana. Only 30% of Montana is covered by Mollisols; the remainder includes rangeland, covered primarily by Aridisols and Entisols, and forests, covered by Inceptisols, Spodosols, and Histosols. Although other unidentified factors contribute to spatial variation in soil organic-C stocks in Montana, drainage class distinguishes the C-rich and the C-poor soils. When taken with similar results correlating soil C stocks with drainage class in a separate study of Maine, soil wetness emerges as an important controller of soil organic-C in northern states of the USA. Another objective was to compare STATSGO estimates (1:250,000 scale) of area covered by soil orders with estimates from the FAO/UNESCO Soils Map of the World (1:5,000,000). Agreement was excellent in Kansas and reasonably good in Montana. When used with regionally specific estimates for soil-C, the FAO map holds promise for regional and global extrapolation of soil C stocks.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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    Climatic change 40 (1998), S. 277-284 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Keywords: ombrotrophic bogs ; microbial ecology ; methane ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Gases are produced from wetlands when plant biomass is degraded by microbial consortia, producing carbon dioxide aerobically and methane when oxygen is lacking. In anaerobic waterlogged situations, such as the catotelm of ombrotrophic bogs, this methane forms minute gas bubbles that severely reduce the hydraulic conductivity and hence the degradation of biomass due to the lack of nutrients. The bogs thus become carbon sinks, formed from the partially degraded biomass that accumulates as peat. The results of an investigation of an ombrotrophic bog, Mer Bleue, Ontario, Canada are summarized here, and the effects that climate change may have on such bogs are discussed. Any change of the water table in wetlands will have a substantial effect upon their ecology. If the water table should fall allowing bogs to become aerobic, most of the accumulated biomass carbon could be returned to the atmosphere by degradation to carbon dioxide, and as well, methane entrapped within the matrix would be released directly to the atmosphere. If on the other hand, the bogs are flooded, then the entrapped bubbles will coalesce allowing the gas to escape to the atmosphere, while at the same time the degradation of the peat will be enhanced.
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 37
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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  • 40
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 41
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 46
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 47
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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  • 51
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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  • 59
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Journal of forest research 2 (1997), S. 147-152 
    ISSN: 1610-7403
    Keywords: climate change ; GNVM system ; modified Kira scheme ; potential natural vegetation distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Change in potential natural vegetation (PNV) distribution associated with climate change due to the doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (2×CO2) was estimated with a global natural vegetation mapping system based on the modified Kira scheme to the globe and the continents. With an input of widely-distributed global climate data, the system interpolates data onto a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid over the globe, generates estimates of vegetation type, and produces a composite PNV map. The input climate data corresponding to the 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 consists of observations prior to AD 1958 at 2,001 weather stations worldwide and the 2×CO2 simulation output from the Japan Meteorological Research Institue's General Circulation Model, respectively. As a result of the simulated global warming, the vegetation zones expanded mostly from the tropics toward the poles. PNV area changed by 6.98 billion (G) ha of the total land area (15.04 Gha) and potential forest area corresponding to the closed forest and open forest (woodland) reached 9.74 Gha with the increase of 1.29 Gha. The potential forest area in Europe had obvious advantages to the climate change accompanied with the increase of actual forest area. Although the actual forest area has decreased in North America and Asia, the potential forest area in these continents also benefitted from the climate change. In the end, the remaining continents tended to bear the brunt of the climate change.
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    Biodiversity and conservation 9 (2000), S. 379-392 
    ISSN: 1572-9710
    Keywords: climate change ; cyanobacteria ; ectoenzymes ; Mediterranean ; nutrient limitation ; photosynthesis ; stromatolite
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A stromatolitic microbial mat extensively covers La Solana streambed, a calcareous Mediterranean stream. This stromatolite shows remarkable biological and physiological diversity. It is mainly composed by cyanobacteria, with Rivularia and Schizothrix as the most abundant taxa. The stromatolite is photosynthetically adaptated to the high irradiances reaching the streambed. Photosynthetically active chlorophyll is present even in the lowest layers of the stromatolite, indicating the presence of well-preserved cyanobacteria in that part. Diffusion of gases and nutrients within the stromatolite can be possible because of the high porosity of the crust. It has been experimentally established that the stromatolite recovers heterotrophic and autotrophic activities in a few hours, after being desiccated for long periods. Recovery after desiccation is indicative of the high resilience of this community to environmental extremes, which are common in Mediterranean climatic regimes. The stromatolitic community is adapted to nutrient limitation, both to low availability of inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen (that constrain growth of primary producers), and to low dissolved organic carbon (mainly affecting heterotrophs). Stromatolitic heterotrophs mainly rely on the organic carbon stored in the crust as the main organic carbon source. These strategies are the direct response of the stromatolite to oligotrophy, and justify the restricted occurrence in stream systems affected by organic pollution.
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  • 62
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Calluna vulgaris ; demography ; nitrogen cycle ; climate change ; modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Three Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull heathlands (1100, 1500 and 1780 m altitude) are studied in order to establish and estimate parameters which will be integrated in a discrete event simulation of heathland functioning in the case of a 2 °C climate warming. The sites, situated in the Chaîne des Puys and the Massif du Sancy (France), present similar conditions for Calluna growth: bedrock (trachyt), exposure and slope, so that they can be compared on a climatic basis. Main parameters sampled are: age distributions, life expectancies, layering probabilities, annual growths, biomasses (standing crop), C/N rates and potential respiratory of soils. In addition, experiments were carried out on germination, hypocotyle elongation and growth of mycorrhizal fungi in order to estimate the inhibitory-to-growth action against the substitution process. On one stand (exhibiting gaps) the patch structure of Calluna plants was recorded and mapped. The rising of biomass expected is calculated according to the Aerts's model, as a function of nitrogen availability which would increase under a scenario of climate warming. From a similar point of view, layering probabilities, life expectancies and inhibition of seedlings survival modelling – under a linear model assumption – are proposed.
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    European journal of plant pathology 102 (1996), S. 193-199 
    ISSN: 1573-8469
    Keywords: climate change ; Longidorus ; nematodes ; Trichodorus ; virus-vector
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Data extracted from surveys of plant-parasitic nematodes in Great Britain allowed relatively detailed maps of the geographical distribution of various longidorid and trichodorid virus-vector nematode species to be produced. These distributions are related to long-term monthly mean temperature. Recently published figures for climate change were applied to the distribution data. A potential increase in nematode associated problems due to climate change using examples of existing published data are examined and discussed.
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    Journal of oceanography 55 (1999), S. 197-205 
    ISSN: 1573-868X
    Keywords: Japan Sea ; Japan Sea Proper Water ; climate change ; long-term variation ; one-dimensional model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades.
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  • 65
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    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 17-34 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: rainfall regime ; Ganga basin ; weighted regression ; climate change ; trend
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Data from three stations Agra, Dehradun and Dehli, were analyzed for evaluation of changes in rainfall and temperature regimes in the upper and middle parts of the Ganga basin in northern India. Long-term data on monsoon rainfall, the number of rainy days during the monsoon season, and the annual maximum temperature at these stations were included in the analysis. Nonparametric methods were employed to identify trends, if any, in these data. The analysis shows that the total monsoon rainfall and the number of rainy days during the monsoon season are on the decline, whereas the annual maximum temperature is on the rise. These changes are observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960's. The results point towards a possible change in the climatic regime of the Ganga basin that has far-reaching implications for the Indian economy.
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  • 66
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    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 407-435 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; hydrology ; water management ; water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems. The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.
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  • 67
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
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  • 68
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    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
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  • 69
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    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
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  • 70
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    Hydrobiologia 295 (1995), S. 75-81 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: climate change ; mangrove ; ecosystems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hundred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones in tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicators of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing the future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dramatically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availability of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The predicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that the presence of mangroves will move further north and south, though this will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time but that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climate on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding, increased erosion of coast lines, saline intrusion and increased storm surges.
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  • 71
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    Hydrobiologia 295 (1995), S. 343-351 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: mangrove ; ecology ; conservation ; management ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Despite the recent better understanding and awareness of the role of mangroves, these coastal forest communities continue to be destroyed or degraded (or euphemistically reclaimed) at an alarming rate. The figure of 1% per year given by Ong (1982) for Malaysia can be taken as a conservative estimate of destruction of mangroves in the Asia-Pacific region. Whilst the Japanese-based mangrove wood-chips industry continues in its destructive path through the larger mangrove ecosystems of the region, the focus of mangrove destruction has shifted to the conversion of mangrove areas into aquaculture ponds and the consequences of the unprecedented massive addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by post industrial man. Mangroves are non-homogeneous; characterised by distinct vegetative zones that occupy the interface between land and sea and dynamically interacting with the atmosphere above as well as with the influences of the adjacent land and sea. The conservation of mangroves should thus include not only the various vegetation and tidal inundation zones but also the adjacent marine and terrestrial areas (including the water catchment area). On the current concern with global climate change, it is pointed out that relative sea level change is very much site dependent. For effective planning and management, it is vital to know if a particular site is stable, rising or sinking so efforts should be directed to find suitable methods for determining this. However, should rapid relative sea level rise take place, there is very little likelihood of saving mangroves whose landward margins have been developed by man, a fact to bear in mind when selecting sites for conservation. The Matang mangroves of Malaysia is rare case of successful sustainable management of a tropical rain forest. Although the tools of management are available they are not widely applied. We particularly urge the Japanese mangrove wood-chips industry to look to long term sustainable use rather than short term gains. A suggestion is made to appeal to the new Government of Japan to take the lead in environmental friendliness especially to the rain forests of the Asia-Pacific region.
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  • 72
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    Hydrobiologia 295 (1995), S. 43-49 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: climate change ; mangroves ; peat ; precipitation ; roots ; sealevel rise ; seawater sulfate ; ultraviolet radiation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The principal scenario concerning the potential effects of climate change on mangrove forest communities revolves around sealevel rise with emphases on coastal abandonment and inland retreat attributable to flooding and saline intrusion. However, at the decade to century scale, changes in precipitation and catchment runoff may be a more significant factor at the regional level. Specifically, for any given sealevel elevation it is hypothesized that reduced rainfall and runoff would necessarily result in higher salinity and greater seawater-sulfate exposure. This would likely be associated with decreased production and increased sediment organic matter decomposition leading to subsidence. In contrast, higher rainfall and runoff would result in reduced salinity and exposure to sulfate, and also increase the delivery of terrigenous nutrients. Consequently, mangrove production would increase and sediment elevations would be maintained. Support for this scenario derives from studies of the high production in saline mangrove impoundments which are depleted in seawater sulfate. This paper also examines other components of climate change, such as UVb, temperature, and storm frequency, and presents a suite of hypotheses and analytical protocols to encourage scientific discussion and testing.
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  • 73
    ISSN: 1573-8590
    Keywords: Chironanidae ; diatoms ; palaeoclimate ; palaeolimnology ; palaeoecology ; palaeosalinity ; salinity ; postglacial ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Salinity fluctuations in lakes of semi-arid regions have long been recognised as indicators of palaeoclimatic change, and have provided a valuable line of evidence in palaeo-climatic reconstruction. In the present study, fossil remains of diatoms and midges were used to reconstruct salinity changes at Mahoney Lake from the early postglacial, through the early, mid and late Holocene. A transition from midges typical of a freshwater community (Protanypus, Sergentia, Heterotrissocladius, Cladopelma, Dicrotendipes) during the early postglacial, to those indicative of saline environments (Cricotopus/Orthocladius, Tanypus) occurred in the early Holocene. The midge-inferred salinity values reflected the shift from freshwater (0.031 g/L) immediately after deglaciation, to saline water (2.4 to 55.2 g/L) in subsequent periods. A less saline period was found to have occurred after 1000 yr BP, suggesting a cooler or wetter period. The diatom record indicates similar trends, with freshwater taxa (e.g.,Cyclotella bodanica var. aff.lemanica) dominating near the bottom of the core. Diatom-inferred salinities indicate that saline conditions (about 30 g/L) prevailed throughout subsequent Holocene time, although relatively fresh conditions are indicated following deposition of the Mazama Ash, and from about 1500 yr BP until the present day. Midge and diatom-inferred salinity reconstructions for Mahoney Lake compare favorably with each other, and with climate trends inferred from earlier palynological evidence. The palaeosalinity record thus contributes new data relevant to past climatic conditions, in a region where little data have previously been collected.
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  • 74
    ISSN: 1573-8590
    Keywords: Chironanidae ; diatoms ; palaeoclimate ; palaeolimnology ; palaeoecology ; palaeosalinity ; salinity ; postglacial ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Salinity fluctuations in lakes of semi-arid regions have long beenrecognised as indicators of palaeoclimatic change, and have provided avaluable line of evidence in palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In the presentstudy, fossil remains of diatoms and midges were used to reconstructsalinity changes at Mahoney Lake from the early postglacial, through theearly, mid and late Holocene. A transition from midges typical of afreshwater community (Protanypus, Sergentia, Heterotrissocladius,Cladopelma, Dicrotendipes) during the early postglacial, to those indicativeof saline environments (Cricotopus/Orthocladius, Tanypus) occurred in theearly Holocene. The midge-inferred salinity values reflected the shift fromfreshwater (0.031 g/L) immediately after deglaciation, to saline water (2.4to 55.2 g/L) in subsequent periods. A less saline period was found to haveoccurred after 1000 yr BP, suggesting a cooler or wetter period. The diatomrecord indicates similar trends, with freshwater taxa (e.g., Cyclotellabodanica var. aff. lemanica) dominating near the bottom of the core.Diatom-inferred salinities indicate that saline conditions (about 30 g/L)prevailed throughout subsequent Holocene time, although relatively freshconditions are indicated following deposition of the Mazama Ash, and fromabout 1500 yr BP until the present day. Midge and diatom-inferred salinityreconstructions for Mahoney Lake compare favorably with each other, and withclimate trends inferred from earlier palynological evidence. Thepalaeosalinity record thus contributes new data relevant to past climaticconditions, in a region where little data have previously been collected.
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  • 75
    ISSN: 1573-8477
    Keywords: biodiversity ; chromosomal polymorphism ; climate change ; Drosophila subobscura ; micro-evolution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Concern regarding the ecological impact of rapid global warming has encouraged research on climate-induced changes in biological systems. Critical problems, still poorly understood, are the potential for rapid adaptive responses and their genetic costs to populations. The O chromosomal polymorphisms of Drosophila subobscura have been monitored at a southern Palearctic locality experiencing sustained climate warming since the mid-1970s. Observations suggest that the population is rapidly evolving in response to the new environmental conditions, and has lost a significant amount of chromosomal diversity (18.3% in 16 years). These findings are consistent with results from another population of D. subobscura, which is also undergoing climate warming, and are in accord with what would be expected from latitudinal and seasonal patterns of the various inversions. In addition, data on the O chromosomal polymorphisms from other localities throughout t he range of this species suggest that other populations vary similarly.
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  • 76
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    Speculations in science and technology 21 (1998), S. 187-197 
    ISSN: 1573-9309
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; climate change ; radiant energy production
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General , Technology
    Notes: Abstract The present mechanism of radiant energy production in the atmosphere is considered and it is shown that it is not compatible with accepted principles of physics. An alternative mechanism whereby the temperature of the atmosphere and surface of the Earth is regulated by a chemical reaction in the stratosphere is described. It is shown that this mechanism can account for the changes in climate which occurred during the past ten thousand years. The effect on this mechanism of changes in the composition of atmospheric gases, including changes resulting from human activities, is described and the consequences of the changes recorded.
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  • 77
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: C cycling ; climate change ; elevated CO2 ; microbial biomass ; N mineralization ; soil respiration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Effects of elevated CO2 (700 μL L−1) and a control (350 μL L−1 CO2) on the productivity of a 3-year-old ryegrass/white clover pasture, and on soil biochemical properties, were investigated with turves of a Typic Endoaquept soil in growth chambers. Temperature treatments corresponding to average winter, spring, and summer conditions in the field were applied consecutively to all of the turves. An additional treatment, at 700 μL L−1 CO2 and a temperature 6°C higher throughout than in the other treatments, was included. Under the same temperature conditions, overall herbage yields in the ‘700 μL L−1 CO2’ treatment were ca. 7% greater than in the control at the end of the ‘summer’ period. Root mass (to ca 25 cm depth) in the ‘700 μL L−1 CO2’ treatment was then about 50% greater than in the control, but in the ‘700 μL L−1 CO2+6°C’ treatment it was 6% lower than in the control. Based on decomposition results, herbage from the ‘700 μL L−1+6°C’ treatment probably contained the highest proportion of readily decomposable components. Elevated CO2 had no consistent effect on soil total C and N, microbial C and N, or extractable C concentrations in any of the treatments. Under the same temperature conditions, it did, however, enhance soil respiration (CO2-C production) and invertase activity. The effects of elevated CO2 on rates of net N mineralization were less distinct, and the apparent availability of N for the sward was not affected. Under elevated CO2, soil in the higher-temperature treatment had a higher microbial C:N ratio; it also had a greater potential to degrade plant materials. Data interpretation was complicated by soil spatial variability and the moderately high background levels of organic matter and biochemical properties that are typical of New Zealand pasture soils. More rapid cycling of C under CO2 enrichment is, nevertheless, indicated. Futher long-term experiments are required to determine the overall effect of elevated CO2 on the soil C balance.
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  • 78
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    Plant and soil 182 (1996), S. 83-99 
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; drainage ; evapotranspiration ; grassland ; Lolium perenne ; water deficit ; yield
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Perennial ryegrass swards were grown in large containers on a soil, at two N fertilizer supplies, and were exposed over two years in highly ventilated plastic tunnels to elevated (700 μL L-1 [CO2]) or ambient atmospheric CO2 concentration at outdoor temperature and to a 3°C increase in air temperature in elevated CO2. These swards were either fully irrigated (kept at field capacity) in each climatic condition (W+), or received the same amount of water in the three climate treatments (W-). In the latter case, the irrigation was adjusted to obtain a soil water deficit during summer and drainage in winter. Using a lysimeter approach, the evapotranspiration, the soil water balance, the productivity (dry-matter yield) and the water use efficiency of the grass swards were measured. During both years, elevated CO2 increased the annual above-ground drymatter yield of the W- swards, by 19% at N- and by 14% at N+. Elevated CO2 modified yield to a variable extent during the growing season: a small, and sometime not significant effect (+6%, on average) was obtained in spring and in autumn, while the summer growth response was stronger (+48%, on average). In elevated CO2, the temperature increase effect on the annual above-ground dry-matter yield was not significant, due to a gain in dry-matter yield in spring and in autumn which was compensated for by a lower summer productivity. Elevated CO2 slightly reduced the evapotranspiration during the growing season and increased drainage by 9% during winter. A supplemental 3°C in elevated CO2 reduced the drainage by 29–34%, whereas the evapotranspiration was increased by 8 and 63% during the growing season and in winter, respectively. During the growing season, the soil moisture content at W- and at the high N supply declined gradually in the control climate, down to 20–30% of the water holding capacity at the last cut (September) before rewatering. This decline was partly alleviated under elevated CO2 in 1993, but not in 1994, and was enhanced at +3°C in elevated CO2. The water use efficiency of the grass sward increased in elevated CO2, on average, by 17 to 30% with no significant interaction with N supply or with the soil water deficit. The temperature increase effect on the annual mean of the water use efficiency was not significant. Highly significant multiple regression models show that elevated CO2 effect on the dry-matter yield increased with air temperatures above 14.5°C and was promoted by a larger soil moisture in elevated compared to ambient CO2. The rate of change in relative dry-matter yield at +3°C in elevated CO2 became negative for air temperatures above 18.5°C and was reduced by a lower soil moisture at the increased air temperature. Therefore, the altered climatic conditions acted both directly on the productivity and on the water use of the grass swards and, indirectly, through changes in the soil moisture content.
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  • 79
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: carbon balance ; carbon sink ; climate change ; grassland ; legume ; nitrogen fixation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The response of plants to elevated CO2 is dependent on the availability of nutrients, especially nitrogen. It is generally accepted that an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the C:N ratio of plant residues and exudates. This promotes temporary N-immobilization which might, in turn, reduce the availability of soil nitrogen. In addition, both a CO2 stimulated increase in plant growth (thus requiring more nitrogen) and an increased N demand for the decomposition of soil residues with a large C:N will result under elevated CO2 in a larger N-sink of the whole grassland ecosystem. One way to maintain the balance between the C and N cycles in elevated CO2 would be to increase N-import to the grassland ecosystem through symbiotic N2 fixation. Whether this might happen in the context of temperate ecosystems is discussed, by assessing the following hypothesis: i) symbiotic N2 fixation in legumes will be enhanced under elevated CO2, ii) this enhancement of N2 fixation will result in a larger N-input to the grassland ecosystem, and iii) a larger N-input will allow the sequestration of additional carbon, either above or below-ground, into the ecosystem. Data from long-term experiments with model grassland ecosystems, consisting of monocultures or mixtures of perennial ryegrass and white clover, grown under elevated CO2 under free-air or field-like conditions, supports the first two hypothesis, since: i) both the percentage and the amount of fixed N increases in white clover grown under elevated CO2, ii) the contribution of fixed N to the nitrogen nutrition of the mixed grass also increases in elevated CO2. Concerning the third hypothesis, an increased nitrogen input to the grassland ecosystem from N2 fixation usually promotes shoot growth (above-ground C storage) in elevated CO2. However, the consequences of this larger N input under elevated CO2 on the below-ground carbon fluxes are not fully understood. On one hand, the positive effect of elevated CO2 on the quantity of plant residues might be overwhelming and lead to an increased long-term below-ground C storage; on the other hand, the enhancement of the decomposition process by the N-rich legume material might favour carbon turn-over and, hence, limit the storage of below-ground carbon.
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    Plant and soil 224 (2000), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; decomposition ; leaf ; root ; litter ; nutrient concentration ; nutrient cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The influence of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) during plant growth on the carbon:nutrient ratios of tissues depends in part on the time and space scales considered. Most evidence relates to individual plants examined over weeks to just a few years. The C:N ratio of live tissues is found to increase, decrease or remain the same under elevated [CO2]. On average it increases by about 15% under a doubled [CO2]. A testable hypothesis is proposed to explain why it increases in some situations and decreases in others. It includes the notion that only in the intermediate range of N-availability will C:N of live tissues increase under elevated [CO2]. Five hypotheses to explain the mechanism of such increase in C:N are discussed; none of these options explains all the published results. Where elevated [CO2] did increase the C:N of green leaves, that response was not necessarily expressed as a higher C:N of senesced leaves. An hypothesis is explored to explain the observed range in the degree of propogation of a CO2 effect on live tissues through to the litter derived from them. Data on C:P ratios under elevated [CO2] are sparse and also variable. They do not yet suggest a generalising-hypothesis of responses. Although, unlike for C:N, there is no theoretical expectation that C:P of plants would increase under elevated [CO2], the average trend in the data is of such an increase. The processes determining the C:P response to elevated [CO2] seem to be largely independent of those for C:N. Research to advance the topic should be structured to examine the components of the hypotheses to explain effects on C:N. This involves experiments in which plants are grown over the full range of N and of P availability from extreme limitation to beyond saturation. Measurements need to: distinguish structural from non-structural dry matter; organic from inorganic forms of the nutrient in the tissues; involve all parts of the plant to evaluate nutrient and C allocation changes with treatments; determine resorption factors during tissue senescence; and be made with cognisance of the temporal and spatial aspects of the phenomena involved.
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  • 81
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; roots ; soil organic matter ; carbon cycle ; Lolium perenne L
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The effects of elevated [CO2] (700 μl l−1 [CO2]) and temperature increase (+3 °C) on carbon accumulation in a grassland soil were studied at two N-fertiliser supplies (160 and 530 kgN ha−1 year−1) in a long-term experiment (2.5 years) on well established ryegrass swards (Lolium perenne L.,) supplied with the same amounts of irrigation water. For all experimental treatments, the C:N ratio of the top soil organic matter fractions increased with their particle size. Elevated CO2 concentration increased the C:N ratios of the below-ground phytomass and of the macro-organic matter. A supplemental fertiliser N or a 3 °C increase in elevated [CO2] reduced it. At the last sampling date, elevated [CO2] did not affect the C:N ratio of the soil organic matter fractions, but increased significantly the accumulation of roots and of macro-organic matter above 200 μm (MOM). An increased N-fertiliser supply stimulated the accumulation of the non harvested plant phytomass and of the OM between 2 and 50 μm, without positive effect on the macro-organic matter 〉200 μm. Elevated [CO22] increased C accumulation in the OM fractions above 50 μm by +2.1 tC ha−1, on average, whereas increasing the fertiliser N supply led to an average supplemental accumulation of +0.8 tC ha−1. There was no significant effect of a 3 °C temperature increase under elevated [CO2] on C accumulation in the OM fractions above 50 μm.
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  • 82
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: Bouteloua gracilis ; climate change ; elevated CO2 ; Pascopyrum smithii ; VA mycorrhiza
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Large intact soil cores of nearly pure stands of Pascopyrum smithii (western wheatgrass, C3) and Bouteloua gracilis (blue grama, C4) were extracted from the Central Plains Experimental Range in northeastern Colorado, USA and transferred to controlled environment chambers. Cores were exposed to a variety of water, temperature and CO2 regimes for a total of four annual growth cycles. Root subsamples were harvested after the completion of the second and fourth growth cycles at a time corresponding to late winter, and were examined microscopically for the presence of mycorrhizae. After two growth cycles in the growth chambers, 54% of the root length was colonized in P. smithii, compared to 35% in blue grama. Field control plants had significantly lower colonization. Elevation of CO2 increased mycorrhizal colonization in B. gracilis by 46% but had no effect in P. smithii. Temperatures 4° C higher than normal decreased colonization in P. smithii by 15%. Increased annual precipitation decreased colonization in both species. Simulated climate change conditions of elevated CO2, elevated temperature and lowered precipitation decreased colonization in P. smithii but had less effect on B. gracilis. After four growth cycles in P. smithii, trends of treatments remained similar, but overall colonization rate decreased.
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  • 83
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 enrichment ; modeling ; root biology ; soil biota
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract As atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase, so too will the emphasis placed on understanding the belowground response of plants to edaphic and climatic change. Controlled-exposure studies that address the significance of an increased supply of carbon to roots and soil biota, and the consequences of this to nutrient cycling will play a prominent role in this process. Models will also contribute to understanding the response of plants and ecosystems to changes in the earth's climate by incorporating experimental results into conceptual or quantitative frameworks from which potential feedbacks within the plant-soil system can be identified. Here we present five examples of how models can be used in this analysis and how they can contribute to the development of new hypotheses in the areas of root biology, soil biota, and ecosystem processes. Two examples illustrate the role of coarse and fine roots in nitrogen and phosphorus uptake from soils, the respiratory costs associated with this acquisition of nutrients, and the significance of root architecture in these relationships. Another example focuses on a conceptual model that has helped raise new ideas about the effects of elevated CO2 on root and microbial biomass, and on nutrient dynamics in the rhizosphere. Difficulties associated with modeling the contribution of mycorrhizal fungi to whole-plant growth are also discussed. Finally, several broad-scale models are used to illustrate the importance of root turnover, litter decomposition, and nitrogen mineralization in determining an ecosystem's response to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. We conclude that models are appropriate tools for use both in guiding existing studies and in identifying new hypotheses for future research. Development of models that address the complexities of belowground processes and their role in determining plant and ecosystem function within the context of rising CO2 concentrations and associated climate change should be encouraged.
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  • 84
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: biogeochemistry ; climate change ; enzyme ; microbial activity ; peat ; water table ; wetland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Microbial activity and enzymic decomposition processes were followed during a field-based experimental lowering of the water table in a Welsh peatland. Respiration was not significantly affected by the treatment. However, the enzymes sulphatase, β-glucosidase and phosphatase were stimulated by between 31 and 67% upon water table drawdown. A further enzyme, phenol oxidase, was not significantly affected. The observation of elevated enzyme activities without an associated increase in microbial respiratory activity suggests that drought conditions influence peatland mineralisation rates through a direct stimulation of existing enzymes, rather than through a generalised stimulation of microbial metabolism (with associated de-novo enzyme synthesis). Hydrochemical data suggest that the stimulation may have been caused by a reduction in the inhibitory action of iron and phenolics in the peat pore waters. Overall, the findings support the recent hypothesis that drier conditions associated with climate change could stimulate mineralisation within wetlands. ei]R Merckx
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  • 85
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; Ecotron ; microbial biomass ; microbial community structure ; soil enzymes ; temperature
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract We investigate the response of soil microorganisms to atmospheric CO2 and temperature change within model terrestrial ecosystems in the Ecotron. The model communities consisted of four plant species (Cardamine hirsuta, Poa annua, Senecio vulgaris, Spergula arvensis), four herbivorous insect species (two aphids, a leaf-miner, and a whitefly) and their parasitoids, snails, earthworms, woodlice, soil-dwelling Collembola (springtails), nematodes and soil microorganisms (bacteria, fungi, mycorrhizae and Protista). In two successive experiments, the effects of elevated temperature (ambient plus 2 °C) at both ambient and elevated CO2 conditions (ambient plus 200 ppm) were investigated. A 40:60 sand:Surrey loam mixture with relatively low nutrient levels was used. Each experiment ran for 9 months and soil microbial biomass (Cmic and Nmic), soil microbial community (fungal and bacterial phospholipid fatty acids), basal respiration, and enzymes involved in the carbon cycling (xylanase, trehalase) were measured at depths of 0–2, 0–10 and 10–20 cm. In addition, root biomass and tissue C:N ratio were determined to provide information on the amount and quality of substrates for microbial growth. Elevated temperature under both ambient and elevated CO2 did not show consistent treatment effects. Elevation of air temperature at ambient CO2 induced an increase in Cmic of the 0–10 cm layer, while at elevated CO2 total phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) increased after the third generation. The metabolic quotient qCO2 decreased at elevated temperature in the ambient CO2 run. Xylanase and trehalase showed no changes in both runs. Root biomass and C:N ratio were not influenced by elevated temperature in ambient CO2. In elevated CO2, however, elevated temperature reduced root biomass in the 0–10 cm and 30–40 cm layers and increased N content of roots in the deeper layers. The different response of root biomass and C:N ratio to elevated temperature may be caused by differences in the dynamics of root decomposition and/or in allocation patterns to coarse or fine roots (i.e. storage vs. resource capture functions). Overall, our data suggests that in soils of low nutrient availability, the effects of climate change on the soil microbial community and processes are likely to be minimal and largely unpredicatable.
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  • 86
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    Plant and soil 182 (1996), S. 101-114 
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; grassland ; Lolium perenne ; nitrogen yield ; nitrogen cycle ; root
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Perennial ryegrass swards were grown in large containers on a soil and were exposed during two years to elevated (700 μL L-1) or ambient atmospheric CO2 concentration at outdoor temperature and to a 3 °C increase in air temperature in elevated CO2. The nitrogen nutrition of the grass sward was studied at two sub-optimal (160 and 530 kg N ha-1 y-1) and one non-limiting (1000 kg N ha-1 y-1) N fertilizer supplies. At cutting date, elevated CO2 reduced by 25 to 33%, on average, the leaf N concentration per unit mass. Due to an increase in the leaf blade weight per unit area in elevated CO2, this decline did not translate for all cuts in a lower N concentration per unit leaf blade area. With the non-limiting N fertilizer supply, the leaf N concentration (% N) declined with the shoot dry-matter (DM) according to highly significant power models in ambient (% N=4.9 DM-0.38) and in elevated (%N=5.3 DM-0.52) CO2. The difference between both regressions was significant and indicated a lower critical leaf N concentration in elevated than in ambient CO2 for high, but not for low values of shoot biomass. With the sub-optimal N fertilizer supplies, the nitrogen nutrition index of the grass sward, calculated as the ratio of the actual to the critical leaf N concentration, was significantly lowered in elevated CO2. This indicated a lower inorganic N availability for the grass plants in elevated CO2, which was also apparent from the significant declines in the annual nitrogen yield of the grass sward and in the nitrate leaching during winter. For most cuts, the harvested fraction of the plant dry-matter decreased in elevated CO2 due, on average, to a 45–52% increase in the root phytomass. In the same way, a smaller share of the plant total nitrogen was harvested by cutting, due, on average, to a 25–41% increase in the N content of roots. The annual means of the DM and N harvest indices were highly correlated to the annual means of the nitrogen nutrition index. Changes in the harvest index and in the nitrogen nutrition index between ambient and elevated CO2 were also positively correlated. The possible implication of changes in the soil introgen cycle and of a limitation in the shoot growth potential of the grass in elevated. CO2 is discussed.
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  • 87
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; corn ; Great Plains ; soil organic matter (SOM) ; wheat
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In agroecosystems, there is likely to be a strong interaction between global change and management that will determine whether soil will be a source or sink for atmospheric C. We conducted a simulation study of changes in soil C as a function of climate and CO2 change, for a suite of different management systems, at four locations representing a climate sequence in the central Great Plains of the US. Climate, CO2 and management interactions were analyzed for three agroecosystems: a conventional winter wheat-summer fallow rotation, a wheat-corn-fallow rotation and continuous cropping with wheat. Model analyses included soil C responses to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation and responses to changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 as projected by a general circulation model for a 2 × CO2 scenario. Overall, differences between management systems at all the sites were greater than those induced by perturbations of climate and/or CO2. Crop residue production was increased by CO2 enrichment and by a changed climate. Where the frequency of summer fallowing was reduced (wheat-corn-fallow) or eliminated (continuous wheat), soil C increased under all conditions, particularly with increased (640 μL L−1) CO2. For wheat-fallow management, the model predicted declines in soil C under both ambient conditions and with climate change alone. Increased CO2 with wheat-fallow management yielded small gains in soil C at three of the sites and reduced losses at the fourth site. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the role of management in determining potential responses of agroecosystems to global change. Changes in climate will determine changes in management as farmers strive to maximize profitability. Therefore, changes in soil C may be a complex function of climate driving management and management driving soil C levels and not be a simple direct effect of either climate or management.
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  • 88
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: carbon cycle ; climate change ; 13C ; CO2 ; litter ; Lolium perenne ; roots
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The effects of elevated [CO2] (700 μl l-1 CO2) and temperature increase (+3 °C) on carbon turnover in grassland soils were studied during 2.5 years at two N fertiliser supplies (160 and 530 kg N ha-1 y-1) in an experiment with well-established ryegrass swards (Lolium perenne) supplied with the same amounts of irrigation water. During the growing season, swards from the control climate (350 μl l-1 [CO2] at outdoor air temperature) were pulse labelled by the addition of 13CO2. The elevated [CO2] treatments were continuously labelled by the addition of fossil-fuel derived CO2 (13 C of -40 to -50 ‰). Prior to the start of the experimental treatments, the carbon accumulated in the plant parts and in the soil macro-organic matter (‘old’ C) was at −32‰. During the experiment, the carbon fixed in the plant material (‘new’ C) was at −14 and −54‰ in the ambient and elevated [CO2] treatments, respectively. During the experiment, the 13C isotopic mass balance method was used to calculate, for the top soil (0–15 cm), the carbon turnover in the stubble and roots and in the soil macro-organic matter above 200 μ (MOM). Elevated [CO2] stimulated the turnover of organic carbon in the roots and stubble and in the MOM at N+, but not at N−. At the high N supply, the mean replacement time of ‘old’ C by ‘new’ C declined in elevated, compared to ambient [CO2], from 18 to 7 months for the roots and stubble and from 25 to 17 months for the MOM. This resulted from increased rates of ‘new’ C accumulation and of ‘old’ C decay. By contrast, at the low N supply, despite an increase in the rate of accumulation of ‘new’ C, the soil C pools did not turnover faster in elevated [CO2], as the rate of ‘old’ C decomposition was reduced. A 3 °C temperature increase in elevated [CO2] decreased the input of fresh C to the roots and stubble and enhanced significantly the exponential rate for the ‘old’ C decomposition in the roots and stubble. An increased fertiliser N supply reduced the carbon turnover in the roots and stubble and in the MOM, in ambient but not in elevated [CO2]. The respective roles for carbon turnover in the coarse soil OM fractions, of the C:N ratio of the litter, of the inorganic N availability and of a possible priming effect between C-substrates are discussed.
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  • 89
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: climate change ; immobilisation ; mineralisation ; N-turnover ; nitrogen ; soil organic matter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The following arguments are outlined and then illustrated by the response of the Hurley Pasture Model to [CO2] doubling in the climate of southern Britain. 1. The growth of N-limited vegetation is determined by the concentration of N in the soil mineral N pools and high turnover rates of these pools (i.e., large input and output fluxes) contribute positively to growth. 2. The size and turnover rates of the soil mineral N pools are determined overwhelmingly by N cycling into all forms of organic matter (plants, animals, soil biomass and soil organic matter — `immobilisation' in a broad sense) and back again by mineralisation. Annual system N gains (by N2 fixation and atmospheric deposition) and losses (by leaching, volatilisation, nitrification and denitrification) are small by comparison. 3. Elevated [CO2] enriches the organic matter in plants and soils with C, which leads directly to increased removal of N from the soil mineral N pools into plant biomass, soil biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). ‘Immobilisation’ in the broad sense then exceeds mineralisation. This is a transient state and as long as it exists the soil mineral N pools are depleted, N gaseous and leaching losses are reduced and the ecosystem gains N. Thus, net immobilisation gradually increases the N status of the ecosystem. 4. At the same time, elevated [CO2] increases symbiotic and non-symbiotic N2 fixation. Thus, more N is gained each year as well as less lost. Effectively, the extra C fixed in elevated [CO2] is used to capture and retain more N and so the N cycle tracks the C cycle. 5. However, the amount of extra N fixed and retained by the ecosystem each year will always be small (ca. 5–10 kg N ha-1 yr-1) compared with amount of N in the immobilisation-mineralisation cycle (ca. 1000 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Consequently, the ecosystem can take decades to centuries to gear up to a new equilibrium higher-N state. 6. The extent and timescale of the depletion of the mineral N pools in elevated [CO2] depends on the N status of the system and the magnitude of the overall system N gains and losses. Small changes in the large immobilisation—mineralisation cycle have large effects on the small mineral N pools. Consequently, it is possible to obtain a variety of growth responses within 1–10 year experiments. Ironically, ecosystem models — artificial constructs — may be the best or only way of determining what is happening in the real world.
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  • 90
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    Euphytica 92 (1996), S. 45-54 
    ISSN: 1573-5060
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; provenance research ; phenotypic stability ; natural selection ; genetic ; diversity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Summary Common garden testing of populations of different origin started with forest trees more than two hundred years ago. Since then, so-called provenance tests have been established with most commercially important species. Beyond the strictly silvicultural goals, the tests offer excellent opportunities to study intraspecific genetic variation patterns and represent probably the most powerful available tool for testing hypotheses of climatic adaptation in trees. Analysis of adaptive traits (mostly juvenile height growth) in provenance experiments indicate the existence of very effective constraints on adaptedness. The performance of populations plotted against an ecological-climatic factor exhibits a characteristic pattern and can be described by response functions. The population average of a fitness-related trait for a locally adapted population is often significantly lower than that of populations from other environments; usually the ones from milder climate perform better. The phenomenon is interpreted as adaptation lag. Suboptimal adaptation is compensated by a high level of genetic diversity. Molecular genetic studies confirm the high level of allelic and individual genetic diversity in forest trees. A consequence of individual homeostasis, phenotypic stability of populations is usually also high; the sensitivity to environmental changes is generally moderate. Phenotypically stable populations are valuable not only because of a wider range of potential cultivation but specifically because of a greater ability to adjust to unexpected changes. This trait should receive more attention in the future for obvious reasons. The maintenance of a high within-population genetic variance is favored by the genetic system of the investigated species (effective gene flow, outbreeding, high genetic load, etc.). Random events and long-lasting biotic interactions are further effects impairing the efficiency of natural selection. In view of expected climate instability, genetic adaptability of forest trees causes serious concern due to their long lifespan compared to the rapidity of expected changes in environmental conditions. The potential of provenance tests to interpret long-term adaptational processes should be utilized to analyze, model and predict response of trees to climate change. Although seldomly appreciated, provenance research might be among the most important contributions of forestry to biological sciences.
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  • 91
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    Hydrobiologia 113 (1984), S. 313-325 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: tropical zooplankton ; Cladocera ; Calanoida ; Cyclopoida ; Limnomedusa ; Sahel ; Pleistocene ; climate change ; biogeography
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The zooplankton of the major Sahel river basins Nile, Shari (Chad), Niger, and Senegal, is different from that found in the Sahara and in Equatorial Africa. Similarities and differences between the individual basins are numerous as well. Many species are shared by the Nile and Lake Chad, by Lake Chad and the Niger (plus Senegal), or occur in all four basins, or are restricted (endemic) to only one basin. These patterns are identical to patterns found in fish, molluscs, and macrophytes and show that crustacean zooplankton obeys the same laws of dispersal as these groups, in spite of its apparent preadaptation to passive dispersal. The patterns can be explained by the climatic fluctuations of the Upper Pleistocene and,Holocene. Following a general dry period over Africa between 20 000 and 13 000 BP, high river and lake levels prevailed between 12 500 and 8 400 BP. This was the period of maximum faunal interchange between all basins, and even with the Zaire basin. After a regression (8 000–7 000 BP), wetter conditions returned around 6 000 BP, but the Sahel itself remained dry, although its rivers and lakes, fed by waters of southern origin, showed higher levels than today. They flooded large areas of the southern Sahara, permitting aquatic animals and plants to reach the Adrar of Mauretania, the Tibesti, and the Ennedi mountains. Since 3 000 BP, present day conditions developed. This last period is characterized by species extinctions, as exemplified by the droughts in Lake Chad in historical times, and in spite of the tremendous diversity still extant here today. Between 6 000 BP and the present, however, very little speciation took place, and faunal exchange between basins was very limited.
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  • 92
    ISSN: 1573-5079
    Keywords: acclimation ; climate change ; CO2 ; down-regulation ; global change ; photosynthesis ; stomatal conductance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to rise. It is important, therefore, to determine what acclimatory changes will occur within the photosynthetic apparatus of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in a future high-CO2 world at ample and limited soil N contents. Wheat was grown in an open field exposed to the CO2 concentration of ambient air [370 μmol (CO2) mol−1; Control] and air enriched to ∼200 μmol (CO2) mol−1 above ambient using a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) apparatus (main plot). A High (35 g m−2) or Low (7 and 1.5 g m−2 for 1996 and 1997, respectfully) level of N was applied to each half of the main CO2 treatment plots (split-plot). Under High-N, FACE reduced stomatal conductance (g s) by 30% at mid-morning (2 h prior to solar noon), 36% at midday (solar noon) and 27% at mid-afternoon (2.5 h after solar noon), whereas under Low-N, g s was reduced by as much as 31% at mid-morning, 44% at midday and 28% at mid-afternoon compared with Control. But, no significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred. Across seasons and growth stages, daily accumulation of carbon (A′) was 27% greater in FACE than Control. High-N increased A′ by 18% compared with Low-N. In contrast to results for g s, however, significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred because FACE increased A′ by 30% at High-N, but by only 23% at Low-N. FACE enhanced the seasonal accumulation of carbon (A′′) by 29% during 1996 (moderate N-stress), but by only 21% during 1997 (severe N-stress). These results support the premise that in a future high-CO2 world an acclimatory (down-regulation) response in the photosynthetic apparatus of field-grown wheat is anticipated. They also demonstrate, however, that the stimulatory effect of a rise in atmospheric CO2 on carbon gain in wheat can be maintained if nutrients such as nitrogen are in ample supply.
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  • 93
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: humic headwater lake ; water chemistry ; acidification ; reducing acidic deposition ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract During the hydrological years 1989 and 1990, water analyses of the dystrophic mountain cirque Lake Huzenbach and the precipitation within its watershed were performed. Periods of droughts which are supposed to be induced by climate change as well as acidic pulses modify the chemical composition of lake water. Snow melt and heavy rains cause flash floods in lake inflows which are controlled by subsurface-flow. One of the inflows exhibits extremely low pH values [pHmin = 3.66], high concentrations for aluminium [Almax = 1.10 mg l-1], dissolved organic carbon [DOCmax = 30.7 mg l-1], and sulfate [SO4max = 9.08 mg l-1]. Organic and inorganic acids are both likely to contribute to the acidity of these surface waters. During baseflow conditions, groundwater springs still show slightly positive alkalinity values as well as increased pH values up to about 6.0. Since 1985 lake surface samples demonstrate an increasing tendency towards pH values higher than 5.0 during dry summer periods. Positive alkalinity values occur in the hypolimnion during anoxic conditions.
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    Hydrobiologia 210 (1991), S. 183-189 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: water temperature ; rivers ; regression ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The water temperatures of four English chalk streams which have a large groundwater component in their discharge were studied. Simple linear regression models were used to described mean monthly water temperature as a function of mean monthly air temperature. There were no significant between-year differences within rivers, in the case of the Lambourn, Winterbourne and Tadnoll. For the Frome, only one year out of the eight studied was significantly different from the others. Further analysis revealed that there were no significant differences between the Tadnoll, Winterbourne and Lambourn, and that the relationship between maximum monthly water temperature and air temperature was best described by the equation y = 4.29 + 0.55x. Using this pooled equation to predict river temperatures for the three rivers studied gave mean deviations of less than 1 °C from the observed temperatures. It was concluded that linear regressions of the type presented are sufficiently accurate to predict the thermal regimes of rivers for a variety of limnological purposes. They can also be used to predict the temperature response of chalk streams to increased air temperatures that may be produced by climate change. The results predict that chalk streams would show less increase in temperature than other running waters under these circumstances.
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  • 95
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: climate change ; dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ; forested catchments ; nutrient export ; Precambrian Shield streams ; storm runoff
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DOC export arestudied during storms to examine the relationship between DOCconcentration and stream discharge and to assess the importance of stormson DOC export. Storms were monitored in seven subcatchments within twosmall watersheds (Harp 4--21 and Harp 3A) on the Precambrian Shield inCentral Ontario, Canada. Stream DOC concentrations increase during stormsby as much as 100% and 410% in Harp3A and Harp 4--21 respectively. The seasonal regression between DOC andstream discharge is significant in subcatchments without wetlands(r2 〉 0.7) but is not significant in thetwo subcatchments with small wetland areas (r2 〈0.06). On average, regressions based on weekly data yield accurate estimatesof DOC export but the variation in regressions among individual storms andthe small number of high DOC samples result in uncertainties of more than30% in DOC export. The period-weighted calculation ofDOC export from weekly data underestimates export by 14%and 22% in Harp 3A and Harp 4--21 respectively. Stormswere responsible for 57% to 68% of theDOC export in the autumn and 29% to 40%of the DOC export in the spring. A single large storm accounted for31% of the autumn DOC export in Harp 3A. The importanceof individual storms for DOC export and the variation in the relationshipbetween DOC and stream discharge among storms make it difficult to predictthe effects of climate change on DOC export and DOC concentrations.
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  • 96
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    Hydrobiologia 441 (2000), S. 55-62 
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: climate change ; temperature ; mayflies ; Cloeon dipterum
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Populations of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum from 48 ponds (3000 l fibre-glass tanks of 1 m depth) were monitored over the course of 1 year. To simulate possible patterns of climatic change, the ponds were subject to three temperature treatments: continuous heating to 3 °C above ambient; heating to 3 °C above ambient during the summer only; and no heating. Further experimental complexity included enhanced nutrient input into the ponds and the presence or absence of fish, giving a factorial combination of 3 temperature regimes × 2 nutrient levels × presence/absence of fish predation. Few nymphs were found in the presence of fish. Where fish were absent, the temperature treatments did not significantly affect nymph abundances, and only marginally influenced mean nymph body-lengths. In contrast, the nutrient treatment had significant effects on both nymph abundance and size, with greater numbers of generally larger nymphs occurring in those fish-free ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult emergence began earlier in the year from the heated ponds, particularly those ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult body-length differed between temperature treatments, but consistent patterns were difficult to ascertain because of interactions with nutrient treatment and seasonal effects. Our results show that during the short term at least, elevated temperature as a simulation of climate change does not have an overwhelming influence on either mayfly abundance or size. The influence of temperature is subtle and subject to complex interaction with other habitat variables. We therefore suggest that the direct consequences of small changes in temperature will likely be of little significance to C. dipterum, relative to indirect effects operating through interactions with predation and nutrient input.
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    International tax and public finance 2 (1995), S. 207-219 
    ISSN: 1573-6970
    Keywords: tax reform ; general equilibrium ; environment ; double dividend ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The introduction of the European Community's carbon-energy tax in a small open economy is analyzed by comparing two kinds of revenue recycling. We use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with different regimes for the labor market, several income groups, and a crude valuation of environmental benefits. This allows for a more comprehensive empirical test of the double-dividend hypothesis, including equity aspects. It is shown that the weak double-dividend hypothesis can fail when equity aspects are taken into account.
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  • 98
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Keywords: effects of global warming ; drought ; climate change ; Prairie Pothole Region ; waterfowl ; waterfowl breeding ecology ; wetlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2 = 0.72, p 〈 0.0001) and breeding duck populations (R2 = 0.69, p 〈 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, +1.5°C, +2.5°C, and +4.0°C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, and +15%, changes spanning the range of typically-projected values for this region from human-induced climatic change. Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long-term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects.
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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