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  • American Geophysical Union  (35,953)
  • Copernicus
  • PANGAEA
  • 2020-2022  (19,962)
  • 1995-1999  (29,452)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-09-21
    Description: We compare differences and similarities in the annual stratospheric HNO3 cycle derived from ground‐based measurements at the South Pole during 1993 and 1995, after correcting an error in earlier published profile retrievals for 1993 which led to under estimation of mixing ratios. The data series presented here provide profiling over the range ∼16–48 km, and cover the fall‐winter‐spring cycle in the behavior of HNO3 in the extreme Antarctic with a large degree of temporal overlap. With the exception of one gap of 20 days, the combined data sets cover a full annual cycle. The record shows an increase in HNO3 above 30 km occurring about 20 days before sunset, which appears to be the result of higher altitude heterogeneous conversion of NOx as photolysis diminishes. Both years show a strong increase in HNO3 beginning about polar sunset, in a layer peaking at about 25 km, as additional NOx is heterogeneously converted to nitric acid. When temperatures drop to the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation range near the end of May, gas phase HNO3 is rapidly reduced in the lower stratosphere, although at least 2–3 weeks of temperatures ≤192 K appear to be required to complete most of the gas‐phase removal at the upper end of the depletion range (22–25 km). Despite a significant difference in residual sulfate loading from the explosion of Mount Pinatubo, there appears to be little gross difference in the timing and effects of PSC formation in removing gas phase HNO3 in these 2 years, though removal may be more rapid in 1995. Incorporation of gas phase HNO3 into PSCs appears to be nearly complete up to ∼25 km by midwinter. We also see a repeat of the formation of gas phase HNO3 in the middle stratosphere in early midwinter of 1995 with about the same timing as in 1993, suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by a repetition of dynamical transport and appropriate temperatures and pressures in the polar night, and not (as has been suggested) by ion‐based heterogeneous chemistry that requires triggering by large relativistic electron fluxes. High‐altitude HNO3 production peaks during a period of ∼20 days, but appears to persist for up to ∼40 days in the 40–45 km range, ceasing well before sunrise. This HNO3 descends rapidly throughout the production period, at a rate in good agreement with theoretically determined midwinter subsidence rates. As noted in earlier studies, later warming of this region above PSC evaporation temperatures does not cause reappearance of large amounts of HNO3, indicating that most PSCs gravitationally sink out of the stratosphere before early spring. We present evidence that smaller PSCs do evaporate to ∼1 to 3.5 ppbv of HNO3 in the lower stratosphere, however, working downward from ∼25 km as temperatures rise during the late winter. There is a delay of ∼15 days after sunrise before photolysis causes significant depletion in the altitude range below ∼30 km, where subsidence has carried virtually all higher‐altitude HNO3 by polar sunrise. Some continued subsidence and photolysis combine to keep mixing ratios less than ∼5 ppbv below 30 km until the final breakdown of the vortex in November brings larger amounts of HNO3 with air from lower latitudes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 17739-17750
    Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: ozone depletion ; HNO3 ; Antarctic stratosphere ; 01.01. Atmosphere
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time‐independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science‐driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.
    Description: Published
    Description: e2019RG000653
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2016) American Geophysical Union.
    Description: The accuracy of earthquake locations and their correspondence with subsurface geology depends strongly on the accuracy of the available seismic velocity model. Most modern methods to construct a velocity model for earthquake location are based on the inversion of passive source seismological data. Another approach is the integration of high-resolution geological and geophysical data to construct deterministic velocity models in which earthquake locations can be directly correlated to the geological structures. Such models have to be kinematically consistent with independent seismological data in order to provide precise hypocenter solutions. We present the Altotiberina (AT) seismic model, a three-dimensional velocity model for the Upper Tiber Valley region (Northern Apennines, Italy), constructed by combining 300 km of seismic reflection profiles, 6 deep boreholes (down to 5 km depth), detailed data from geological surveys and direct measurements of P- and S-wave velocities performed in situ and in laboratory. We assess the robustness of the AT seismic model by locating 11,713 earthquakes with a non-linear, global-search inversion method and comparing the probabilistic hypocenter solutions to those calculated in three previously published velocity models, constructed by inverting passive seismological data only. Our results demonstrate that the AT seismic model is able to provide higher-quality hypocenter locations than the previous velocity models. Earthquake locations are consistent with the subsurface geological structures and show a high degree of spatial correlation with specific lithostratigraphic units, suggesting a lithological control on the seismic activity evolution.
    Description: Published
    Description: 8113-8135
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: deterministic velocity model ; earthquakes ; nonlinear hypocenter location ; lithological control on seismicity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-09-07
    Description: This study presents and discusses horizontal and vertical geodetic velocities for a low strain rate region of the south Alpine thrust front in northeastern Italy obtained by integrating GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and leveling data. The area is characterized by the presence of subparallel, south-verging thrusts whose seismogenic potential is still poorly known. Horizontal GPS velocities show that this sector of the eastern Southern Alps is undergoing ∼1 mm a−1 of NW–SE shortening associated with the Adria–Eurasia plate convergence, but the horizontal GPS velocity gradient across the mountain front provides limited constraints on the geometry and slip rate of the several subparallel thrusts. In terms of vertical velocities, the three geodetic methods provide consistent results showing a positive velocity gradient, of ∼ 1.5 mm a−1, across the mountain front, which can hardly be explained solely by isostatic processes. We developed an interseismic dislocation model whose geometry is constrained by available subsurface geological reconstructions and instrumental seismicity. While a fraction of the measured uplift can be attributed to glacial and erosional isostatic processes, our results suggest that interseismic strain accumulation at the Montello and the Bassano–Valdobbiadene thrusts it significantly contributing to the measured uplift. The seismogenic potential of the Montello thrust turns out to be smaller than that of the Bassano–Valdobbiadene fault, whose estimated parameters (locking depth equals 9.1 km and slip rate equals 2.1 mm a−1) indicate a structure capable of potentially generating a Mw〉6.5 earthquake. These results demonstrate the importance of precise vertical ground velocity data for modeling interseismic strain accumulation in slowly deforming regions where seismological and geomorphological evidence of active tectonics is often scarce or not conclusive.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1698
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Southern Alps ; Vertical Velocities ; GPS and InSAR integration ; Interseismic Deformation ; Dislocation Model ; Seismic Potential ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.07. Tectonophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-09-21
    Description: [1] We present the first intercomparison between the two most comprehensive records of gas‐phase HNO3 profiles in the Antarctic stratosphere, covering the greater part of 1993 and 1995. We compare measurements by the Stony Brook Ground‐Based Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer (GBMS) at the South Pole with Version 5 HNO3 data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite. Trajectory tracing was used to select MLS measurements in the 70°–80°S latitude band that sampled air observed by the GBMS during passage over the Pole. When temperatures were near the HNO3 condensation range, additional screening was performed to select MLS measurements that sampled air parcels within 1.5 K of the temperature they experienced over the Pole. Quantitative comparisons are given at 7 different potential temperature levels spanning the range ∼19–30 km. Agreement between the data sets is quite good between 465 and 655 K (∼20–25 km) during a large fraction of the year. Agreement is best during winter and spring, when seasonally averaged differences are generally within 1 ppbv below ∼25 km. At higher altitudes, and during summer and fall, the agreement becomes worse, and GBMS measurements can exceed MLS values by more than 3 ppbv. We provide evidence that differences occurring in the lower stratosphere during fall are due to lack of colocation between the two data sets during a period of strong poleward gradients in HNO3. Remaining discrepancies between GBMS and MLS V5 HNO3 measurements are thought to be due to instrumental or retrieval biases.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 4809
    Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: MLS ; Nitric acid ; polar stratosphere ; 01.01. Atmosphere
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: The diagnosis of the conservation state of monumental structures from constraints to the spatial distribution of their physical properties on shallow and inner materials represents one of the key objectives in the application of non-invasive techniques. In situ, CRP and 3D ultrasonic tomography can provide an effective coverage of stone materials in space and time. The intrinsic characteristics of the materials that make up a monumental structure and affect the two properties (i.e., reflectivity, longitudinal velocity) through the above methods substantially differ. Consequently, the content of their information is mainly complementary rather than redundant. In this study we present the integrated application of different non-destructive techniques i.e., Close Range Photogrammetry (CRP), and low frequency (24 KHz) ultrasonic tomography complemented by petrographycal analysis based essentially on Optical Microscopy (OM). This integrated methodology has been applied to a Carrara marble column of the Basilica of San Saturnino, in Byzantine-Proto-Romanesque style, which is part of the Paleo Christian complex of the V-VI century. This complex also includes the adjacent Christian necropolis in the square of San Cosimo in the city of Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy. The column under study is made of bare material dating back probably to the first century A.D., it was subjected to various traumas due to disassembly and transport to the site, including damage caused by the close blast of a WWII fragmentation bomb. High resolution 3D modelling of the studied artifact was computed starting from the integration of proximal sensing techniques such as CRP based on Structure from Motion (SfM), with which information about the geometrical anomalies and reflectivity of the investigated marble column surface was obtained. On the other hand, the inner parts of the studied body were successfully inspected in a non-invasive way by computing the velocity pattern of the ultrasonic signal through the investigated materials using 3D ultrasonic tomography. This technique gives information on the elastic properties of the material related with mechanical properties and a number of factors, such as presence of fractures, voids, and flaws. Extracting information on such factors from the elastic wave velocity using 3D tomography provides a non-invasive approach to analyse the property changes of the inner material of the ancient column. The integrated application of in situ CRP and ultrasonic techniques provides a full 3D high resolution model of the investigated artifact. This model enhanced by the knowledge of the petrographic characteristics of the materials, improves the diagnostic process and affords reliable information on the state of conservation of the materials used in the construction processes of the studied monumental structure. The integrated use of the non-destructive techniques described above also provides suitable data for a possible restoration and future preservation.
    Description: Copernicus
    Description: Published
    Description: On line
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Cultural Heritage ; Monumental Structures ; Non-Destructive Testing ; Close Range Photogrammetry ; 3D Ultrasonic Tomography ; High resolution 3D modelling ; Restoration ; Conservation ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Abstract
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-05-13
    Description: Mineral dust plays an important role in the atmospheric radiation budget as well as in the ocean carbon cycle through fertilization and by ballasting of settling organic matter. However, observational records of open‐ocean dust deposition are sparse. Here, we present the spatial and temporal evolution of Saharan dust deposition over 2 years from marine sediment traps across the North Atlantic, directly below the core of the Saharan dust plume, with highest dust fluxes observed in summer. We combined the observed deposition fluxes with model simulations and satellite observations and argue that dust deposition in the Atlantic is predominantly controlled by summer rains. The dominant depositional pathway changes from wet deposition in summer to dry deposition in winter. Wet deposition has previously been suggested to increase the release of dust‐derived nutrients and their bioavailability, which may be a key contributor to surface‐ocean productivity in remote and oligotrophic parts of the oceans.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3°C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4°C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-09-02
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2020-09-28
    Description: Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Originating from the boreal forest and often transported over large distances, driftwood characterises many Arctic coastlines. Here we present a combined assessment of radiocarbon (14C) and dendrochronological (ring width) age estimates of driftwood samples to constrain the progradation of two Holocene beach-ridge systems near the Lena Delta in the Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea). Our data show that the 14C ages obtained on syndepositional driftwood from beach deposits yield surprisingly coherent chronologies for the coastal evolution of the field sites. The dendrochronological analysis of wood from modern driftlines revealed the origin and recent delivery of the wood from the Lena River catchments. This finding suggests that the duration transport lies within the uncertainty of state-of-the-art 14C dating and thus substantiates the validity of age indication obtained from driftwood. This observation will help to better understand changes in similar coastal environments, and to improve our knowledge about the response of coastal systems to past climate and sea-level changes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography of interior Greenland exist, but their accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep-drilling site. A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers an area of 35 km by 40 km, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a^−1 within a central flow band with longitudinal and transverse strain rates on the order of 10−4 a^−1 and increasing by an order of magnitude in the shear margins. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model and a list of satellite-derived surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias in and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and a precision of ∼0.5 m a^−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-derived products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in NEGIS when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 14
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(6), pp. 2275-2323, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: We present the Alfred Wegener Institute's contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) wherein we employ the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) that include a dynamic vegetation scheme. This work builds on our contribution to Phase 1 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP1) wherein we employed the same model without dynamic vegetation. Our input to the PlioMIP2 special issue of Climate of the Past is twofold. In an accompanying paper we compare results derived with COSMOS in the framework of PlioMIP2 and PlioMIP1. With this paper we present details of our contribution with COSMOS to PlioMIP2. We provide a description of the model and of methods employed to transfer reconstructed mid-Pliocene geography, as provided by the Pliocene Reconstruction and Synoptic Mapping Initiative Phase 4 (PRISM4), to model boundary conditions. We describe the spin-up procedure for creating the COSMOS PlioMIP2 simulation ensemble and present large-scale climate patterns of the COSMOS PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene core simulation. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of individual components of PRISM4 boundary conditions to characteristics of simulated mid-Pliocene climate and discuss implications for anthropogenic warming. When exposed to PRISM4 boundary conditions, COSMOS provides insight into a mid-Pliocene climate that is characterised by increased rainfall (+0.17 mm d−1) and elevated surface temperature (+3.37 ∘C) in comparison to the pre-industrial (PI). About two-thirds of the mid-Pliocene core temperature anomaly can be directly attributed to carbon dioxide that is elevated with respect to PI. The contribution of topography and ice sheets to mid-Pliocene warmth is much smaller in contrast – about one-quarter and one-eighth, respectively, and nonlinearities are negligible. The simulated mid-Pliocene climate comprises pronounced polar amplification, a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a northwards-shifted tropical rain belt, an Arctic Ocean that is nearly free of sea ice during boreal summer, and muted seasonality at Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Simulated mid-Pliocene precipitation patterns are defined by both carbon dioxide and PRISM4 paleogeography. Our COSMOS simulations confirm long-standing characteristics of the mid-Pliocene Earth system, among these increased meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Ocean, an extended and intensified equatorial warm pool, and pronounced poleward expansion of vegetation cover. By means of a comparison of our results to a reconstruction of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the mid-Pliocene we find that COSMOS reproduces reconstructed SST best if exposed to a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppmv. In the Atlantic to Arctic Ocean the simulated mid-Pliocene core climate state is too cold in comparison to the SST reconstruction. The discord can be mitigated to some extent by increasing carbon dioxide that causes increased mismatch between the model and reconstruction in other regions.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 16
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2021-05-09
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , notRev
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: Earth system and climate modelling involves the simulation of processes on a wide range of scales and within and across various compartments of the Earth system. In practice, component models are often developed independently by different research groups, adapted by others to their special interests and then combined using a dedicated coupling software. This procedure not only leads to a strongly growing number of available versions of model components and coupled setups but also to model- and high-performance computing (HPC)-system-dependent ways of obtaining, configuring, building and operating them. Therefore, implementing these Earth system models (ESMs) can be challenging and extremely time consuming, especially for less experienced modellers or scientists aiming to use different ESMs as in the case of intercomparison projects. To assist researchers and modellers by reducing avoidable complexity, we developed the ESM-Tools software, which provides a standard way for downloading, configuring, compiling, running and monitoring different models on a variety of HPC systems. It should be noted that ESM-Tools is not a coupling software itself but a workflow and infrastructure management tool to provide access to increase usability of already existing components and coupled setups. As coupled ESMs are technically the more challenging tasks, we will focus on coupled setups, always implying that stand-alone models can benefit in the same way. With ESM-Tools, the user is only required to provide a short script consisting of only the experiment-specific definitions, while the software executes all the phases of a simulation in the correct order. The software, which is well documented and easy to install and use, currently supports four ocean models, three atmosphere models, two biogeochemistry models, an ice sheet model, an isostatic adjustment model, a hydrology model and a land-surface model. Compared to previous versions, ESM-Tools has lately been entirely recoded in a high-level programming language (Python) and provides researchers with an even more user-friendly interface for Earth system modelling. ESM-Tools was developed within the framework of the Advanced Earth System Model Capacity project, supported by the Helmholtz Association.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 18
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(4), pp. 1643-1665, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: We compare results obtained from modeling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modeling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2020). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model–model and model–data comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 and present further simulations in which we test model sensitivity to variations in paleogeography, orbit, and the concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29°C colder in PlioMIP2 if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82°C in PlioMIP1, 17.53°C in PlioMIP2; values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On the one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), and the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated paleogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than those derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 0.5°C of temperature difference in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differs from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e., corresponding to pre-industrial conditions) but falls into the mid-Pliocene time period targeted in PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations. Our result identifies the changes in mid-Pliocene paleogeography from PRISM3 to PRISM4 as the major driver of the mid-Pliocene warmth within PlioMIP and not the minor differences in forcings.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90 °N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
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  • 20
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 14(11), pp. 3843-3873, ISSN: 1994-0424
    Publication Date: 2020-11-11
    Description: Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the temperature of the ice sheet, determining its ability to slide and internally deform, as well as the behaviour of the continental crust. However, GHF remains poorly constrained, with few and sparse local, borehole-derived estimates and large discrepancies in the magnitude and distribution of existing continent-scale estimates from geophysical models. We review the methods to estimate GHF, discussing the strengths and limitations of each approach; compile borehole and probe-derived estimates from measured temperature profiles; and recommend the following future directions. (1) Obtain more borehole-derived estimates from the subglacial bedrock and englacial temperature profiles. (2) Estimate GHF from inverse glaciological modelling, constrained by evidence for basal melting and englacial temperatures (e.g. using microwave emissivity). (3) Revise geophysically derived GHF estimates using a combination of Curie depth, seismic, and thermal isostasy models. (4) Integrate in these geophysical approaches a more accurate model of the structure and distribution of heat production elements within the crust and considering heterogeneities in the underlying mantle. (5) Continue international interdisciplinary communication and data access.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2020-12-07
    Description: Northwestern Alaska has been highly affected by changing climatic patterns with new temperature and precipitation maxima over the recent years. In particular, the Baldwin and northern Seward peninsulas are characterized by an abundance of thermokarst lakes that are highly dynamic and prone to lake drainage like many other regions at the southern margins of continuous permafrost. We used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Planet CubeSat optical remote sensing data to analyze recently observed widespread lake drainage. We then used synoptic weather data, climate model outputs and lake ice growth simulations to analyze potential drivers and future pathways of lake drainage in this region. Following the warmest and wettest winter on record in 2017/2018, 192 lakes were identified as having completely or partially drained by early summer 2018, which exceeded the average drainage rate by a factor of ∼ 10 and doubled the rates of the previous extreme lake drainage years of 2005 and 2006. The combination of abundant rain- and snowfall and extremely warm mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), close to 0 ∘C, may have led to the destabilization of permafrost around the lake margins. Rapid snow melt and high amounts of excess meltwater further promoted rapid lateral breaching at lake shores and consequently sudden drainage of some of the largest lakes of the study region that have likely persisted for millennia. We hypothesize that permafrost destabilization and lake drainage will accelerate and become the dominant drivers of landscape change in this region. Recent MAATs are already within the range of the predictions by the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (UAF SNAP) ensemble climate predictions in scenario RCP6.0 for 2100. With MAAT in 2019 just below 0 ∘C at the nearby Kotzebue, Alaska, climate station, permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins will become less likely after drainage, strongly decreasing the potential for freeze-locking carbon sequestered in lake sediments, signifying a prominent regime shift in ice-rich permafrost lowland regions.
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  • 22
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    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3AGU Fall Meeting 2020 - Online Everywhere, Online, 2020-12-01-2020-12-17American Geophysical Union
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is an important dynamic component contributing to the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, as it reaches up to the central divide and drains 12% of the ice sheet. The ice stream geometry and surface velocities in the onset region of the NEGIS are not yet sufficiently well reproduced by ice sheet models. We present an assessment of the basal conditions of the onset region in a systematic analysis of airborne ultra-wideband radar data. Our data yield a new detailed model of ice-thickness distribution and basal topography in the upstream part of the ice stream. We observe a change from a smooth to a rougher bed where the ice stream widens from 10 to 60 km, and a distinct roughness anisotropy, indicating a preferred orientation of subglacial structures. The observation of off-nadir reflections that are symmetrical to the bed reflection in the radargrams suggests that these structures are elongated subglacial landforms, which in turn indicate potential streamlining of the bed. Together with basal water routing pathways, our observations hint to two different zones in this part of the NEGIS: an accelerating and smooth upstream region, which is collecting water, with reduced basal traction, and in the further downstream part, where the ice stream is slowing down and is widening, with a distribution of basal water towards the shear margins. Our findings support the hypothesis that the NEGIS is strongly interconnected to the subglacial water system in its onset region, but also to the subglacial substrate and morphology.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: The ESA Earth Explorer CryoSat-2 was launched on 8 April 2010 to monitor the precise changes in the thickness of terrestrial ice sheets and marine floating ice. To do that, CryoSat orbits the planet at an altitude of around 720 km with a retrograde orbit inclination of 92∘ and a quasi repeat cycle of 369 d (30 d subcycle). To reach the mission goals, the CryoSat products have to meet the highest quality standards to date, achieved through continual improvements of the operational processing chains. The new CryoSat Ice Baseline-D, in operation since 27 May 2019, represents a major processor upgrade with respect to the previous Ice Baseline-C. Over land ice the new Baseline-D provides better results with respect to the previous baseline when comparing the data to a reference elevation model over the Austfonna ice cap region, improving the ascending and descending crossover statistics from 1.9 to 0.1 m. The improved processing of the star tracker measurements implemented in Baseline-D has led to a reduction in the standard deviation of the point-to-point comparison with the previous star tracker processing method implemented in Baseline-C from 3.8 to 3.7 m. Over sea ice, Baseline-D improves the quality of the retrieved heights inside and at the boundaries of the synthetic aperture radar interferometric (SARIn or SIN) acquisition mask, removing the negative freeboard pattern which is beneficial not only for freeboard retrieval but also for any application that exploits the phase information from SARIn Level 1B (L1B) products. In addition, scatter comparisons with the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP; https://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre, last access: October 2019) and Operation IceBridge (OIB; Kurtz et al., 2013) in situ measurements confirm the improvements in the Baseline-D freeboard product quality. Relative to OIB, the Baseline-D freeboard mean bias is reduced by about 8 cm, which roughly corresponds to a 60 % decrease with respect to Baseline-C. The BGEP data indicate a similar tendency with a mean draft bias lowered from 0.85 to −0.14 m. For the two in situ datasets, the root mean square deviation (RMSD) is also well reduced from 14 to 11 cm for OIB and by a factor of 2 for the BGEP. Observations over inland waters show a slight increase in the percentage of good observations in Baseline-D, generally around 5 %–10 % for most lakes. This paper provides an overview of the new Level 1 and Level 2 (L2) CryoSat Ice Baseline-D evolutions and related data quality assessment, based on results obtained from analyzing the 6-month Baseline-D test dataset released to CryoSat expert users prior to the final transfer to operations.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of water samples. GLODAPv2.2020 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2019. The major changes are: data from 106 more cruises added, extension of time coverage until 2019, and the inclusion of available discrete fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) values in the merged product files. GLODAPv2.2020 includes measurements from more than 1.2 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 946 cruises. The data for the 12 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and CCl4) have undergone extensive quality control, especially systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but updated to WOCE exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. These adjustments were derived by comparing the data from the 106 new cruises with the data from the 840 quality-controlled cruises of the GLODAPv2.2019 data product. They correct for errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices, while taking into account any known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 μmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 μmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02, depending on region, in pH, and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete fCO2 were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation and doi codes are available at the Ocean Carbon Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2020/, last access: 22 June 2020). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/2c8h-sa89 (Olsen et al., 2020). The bias corrected product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data. These were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This living data update documents the GLODAPv2.2020 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results.
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  • 25
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    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, American Geophysical Union, 35, ISSN: 2572-4525
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: Changes in ocean gateway configuration can induce basin‐scale rearrangements in ocean current characteristics. However, there is large uncertainty in the relative timing of the Oligocene/Miocene subsidence histories of the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge (GSR) and the Fram Strait (FS). By using a climate model, we investigate the temperature and salinity changes in response to the subsidence of these two key ocean gateways during early to middle Miocene. For a singular subsidence of the GSR, we detect warming and a salinity increase in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. As convection sites shift to the north of Iceland, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is formed at cooler temperatures. The associated deep ocean cooling and upwelling of deep waters to the Southern Ocean surface can cause a cooling in the southern high latitudes. These characteristic responses to the GSR deepening are independent of the FS being shallow or deep. An isolated subsidence of the FS gateway for a deep GSR shows less pronounced warming and salinity increase in the Nordic Seas. Arctic temperatures remain unaltered, but a stronger salinity increase is detected, which further increases the density of NADW. The increase in salinity enhances the contribution of NADW to the abyssal ocean at the expense of the colder southern source water component. These relative changes largely counteract each other and cause a negligible warming in the upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean.
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  • 26
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2021-05-09
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 27
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Geochemical evidence of a floating Arctic ice sheet and underlying freshwater in the Arctic Mediterranean in glacial periods, EGU General Assembly 2021, Copernicus, pp. EGU21-12910
    Publication Date: 2021-05-01
    Description: Numerous studies have addressed the possible existence of large floating ice sheets in the glacial Arctic Ocean from theoretical, modelling, or seafloor morphology perspectives. Here, we add evidence from the sediment record that support the existence of such freshwater ice caps in certain intervals, and we discuss their implications for possible non-linear and rapid behaviour of such a system in the high latitudes. We present sedimentary activities of 230Th together with 234U/238U ratios, the concentrations of manganese, sulphur and calcium in the context of lithological information and records of microfossils and their isotope composition. New analyses (PS51/038, PS72/396) and a re-analysis of existing marine sediment records (PS1533, PS1235, PS2185, PS2200, amongst others) in view of the naturally occurring radionuclide 230Thex and, where available, 10Be from the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas reveal the widespread occurrence of intervals with a specific geochemical signature. The pattern of these parameters in a pan-Arctic view can best be explained when assuming the repeated presence of freshwater in frozen and liquid form across large parts of the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. Based on the sedimentary evidence and known environmental constraints at the time, we develop a glacial scenario that explains how these ice sheets, together with eustatic sea-level changes, may have affected the past oceanography of the Arctic Ocean in a fundamental way that must have led to a drastic and non-linear response to external forcing. This concept offers a possibility to explain and to some extent reconcile contrasting age models for the Late Pleistocene in the Arctic Ocean. Our view, if adopted, offers a coherent dating approach across the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, linked to events outside the Arctic.
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  • 28
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    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020, 2020-02-16-2020-02-21American Geophysical Union
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2020-02-17
    Description: Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major source of uncertainty for ice and ocean mass balance estimates derived from satellite gravimetry. In Antarctica the gravimetric effect of cryospheric mass change and GIA are of the same order of magnitude. Inverse estimates from geodetic observations hold some promise for mass signal separation. Here, we investigate the combination of satellite gravimetry and altimetry and demonstrate that the choice of input data sets and processing methods will influence the resultant GIA inverse estimate. This includes the combination that spans the full GRACE record (April 2002–August 2016). Additionally, we show the variations that arise from combining the actual time series of the differing data sets. Using the inferred trends, we assess the spread of GIA solutions owing to (1) the choice of different degree-1 and C20 products, (2) viable candidate surface-elevation-change products derived from different altimetry missions corresponding to different time intervals, and (3) the uncertainties associated with firn process models. Decomposing the total-mass signal into the ice mass and the GIA components is strongly dependent on properly correcting for an apparent bias in regions of small signal. Here our ab initio solutions force the mean GIA and GRACE trend over the low precipitation zone of East Antarctica to be zero. Without applying this bias correction, the overall spread of total-mass change and GIA-related mass change using differing degree-1 and C20 products is 68 and 72 Gt a−1, respectively, for the same time period (March 2003–October 2009). The bias correction method collapses this spread to 6 and 5 Gt a−1, respectively. We characterize the firn process model uncertainty empirically by analysing differences between two alternative surface mass balance products. The differences propagate to a 10 Gt a−1 spread in debiased GIA-related mass change estimates. The choice of the altimetry product poses the largest uncertainty on debiased mass change estimates. The spread of debiased GIA-related mass change amounts to 15 Gt a−1 for the period from March 2003 to October 2009. We found a spread of 49 Gt a−1 comparing results for the periods April 2002–August 2016 and July 2010–August 2016. Our findings point out limitations associated with data quality, data processing, and correction for apparent biases.
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  • 30
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    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, American Geophysical Union, 35(7), pp. e2019PA003773, ISSN: 2572-4525
    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's largest current system connecting all three major basins of the global ocean. Our knowledge of glacial‐interglacial changes in ACC dynamics in the southeast Pacific is not well constrained and presently only based on reconstructions covering the last glacial cycle. Here we use a combination of mean sortable silt grain size of the terrigenous sediment fraction (10–63 μm, "Sortable Silt") and X‐ray fluorescence scanner‐derived Zr/Rb ratios as flow strength proxies to examine ACC variations at the Pacific entrance to the Drake Passage (DP) in the vicinity of the Subantarctic Front. Our results indicate that at the DP entrance, ACC strength varied by ~6–16% on glacial‐interglacial time scales, yielding higher current speeds during interglacial times and reduced current speeds during glacials. We provide evidence that previous observations of a reduction in DP throughflow during the last glacial period are part of a consistent pattern extending for at least the last 1.3 Ma. The orbital‐scale cyclicity follows well‐known global climate changes from prevailing ca. 41‐kyr cycles in the early part of the record (1.3 Ma to 850 ka; marine isotope stage 21) across the mid‐Pleistocene transition into the middle and late Pleistocene 100‐kyr world. A comparison to a bottom water flow record from the deep western boundary current off New Zealand (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123) reveals anti‐phased changes between the two sites. The enhanced supply of deep water along the DP and into the Atlantic Ocean during interglacials corresponds to a weakened flow of the SW Pacific deep western boundary current.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2021-03-25
    Description: Landfast sea ice (fast ice) attached to Antarctic (near-)coastal elements is a critical component of the local physical and ecological systems. Through its direct coupling with the atmosphere and ocean, fast-ice properties are also a potential indicator of processes related to a changing climate. However, in situ fast-ice observations in Antarctica are extremely sparse because of logistical challenges and harsh environmental conditions. Since 2010, a monitoring program observing the seasonal evolution of fast ice in Atka Bay has been conducted as part of the Antarctic Fast Ice Network (AFIN). The bay is located on the northeastern edge of Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the German wintering station Neumayer III. A number of sampling sites have been regularly revisited each year between annual ice formation and breakup to obtain a continuous record of sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness, as well as snow depth and freeboard across the bay. Here, we present the time series of these measurements over the last 9 years. Combining them with observations from the nearby Neumayer III meteorological observatory as well as auxiliary satellite images enables us to relate the seasonal and interannual fast-ice cycle to the factors that influence their evolution. On average, the annual consolidated fast-ice thickness at the end of the growth season is about 2 m, with a loose platelet layer of 4 m thickness beneath and 0.70 m thick snow on top. Results highlight the predominately seasonal character of the fast-ice regime in Atka Bay without a significant interannual trend in any of the observed variables over the 9-year observation period. Also, no changes are evident when comparing with sporadic measurements in the 1980s and 1990s. It is shown that strong easterly winds in the area govern the year-round snow distribution and also trigger the breakup of fast ice in the bay during summer months. Due to the substantial snow accumulation on the fast ice, a characteristic feature is frequent negative freeboard, associated flooding of the snow–ice interface, and a likely subsequent snow ice formation. The buoyant platelet layer beneath negates the snow weight to some extent, but snow thermodynamics is identified as the main driver of the energy and mass budgets for the fast-ice cover in Atka Bay. The new knowledge of the seasonal and interannual variability of fast-ice properties from the present study helps to improve our understanding of interactions between atmosphere, fast ice, ocean, and ice shelves in one of the key regions of Antarctica and calls for intensified multidisciplinary studies in this region.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: In the last decades, changing climate conditions have had a severe impact on sea ice at the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), an area rapidly transforming under global warming. To study the development of spring sea ice and environmental conditions in the pre-satellite era we investigated three short marine sediment cores for their biomarker inventory with a particular focus on the sea ice proxy IPSO25 and micropaleontological proxies. The core sites are located in the Bransfield Strait in shelf to deep basin areas characterized by a complex oceanographic frontal system, coastal influence and sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We analyzed geochemical bulk parameters, biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, sterols), and diatom abundances and diversity over the past 240 years and compared them to observational data, sedimentary and ice core climate archives, and results from numerical models. Based on biomarker results we identified four different environmental units characterized by (A) low sea ice cover and high ocean temperatures, (B) moderate sea ice cover with decreasing ocean temperatures, (C) high but variable sea ice cover during intervals of lower ocean temperatures, and (D) extended sea ice cover coincident with a rapid ocean warming. While IPSO25 concentrations correspond quite well to satellite sea ice observations for the past 40 years, we note discrepancies between the biomarker-based sea ice estimates, the long-term model output for the past 240 years, ice core records, and reconstructed atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We propose that the sea ice biomarker proxies IPSO25 and PIPSO25 are not linearly related to sea ice cover, and, additionally, each core site reflects specific local environmental conditions. High IPSO25 and PIPSO25 values may not be directly interpreted as referring to high spring sea ice cover because variable sea ice conditions and enhanced nutrient supply may affect the production of both the sea-ice-associated and phytoplankton-derived (open marine, pelagic) biomarker lipids. For future interpretations we recommend carefully considering individual biomarker records to distinguish between cold sea-ice-favoring and warm sea-ice-diminishing environmental conditions.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2016-08-24
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 36
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    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, American Geophysical Union, 80(19), 223 p., pp. 223-223
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 37
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 39
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Revue Paleobiol., Geneve (1997) 16 (2):, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 433-480
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    In:  EPIC3Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2018-08-10
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    In:  EPIC3Les rapports de campagnes a la mer. Institut Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV), Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 217 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii & National Oceanographic Data Center., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3Smetacek, Victor; de Baar, Hein JW; Bathmann, Ulrich; Lochte, Karin; Rutgers van der Loeff, Michiel M (1997): Ecology and biogeochemistry of the Antarctic circumpolar current during austral spring: Southern Ocean JGOFS Cruise ANT X/6 of R.V. Polarstern. D, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 00100-2
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    In:  EPIC3Smetacek, Victor; de Baar, Hein JW; Bathmann, Ulrich; Lochte, Karin; Rutgers van der Loeff, Michiel M (1997): Ecology and biogeochemistry of the Antarctic circumpolar current during austral spring: Southern Ocean JGOFS Cruise ANT X/6 of R.V. Polarstern. D, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 00100-2
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    In:  EPIC3Berichte aus dem Institut für Meereskunde an der Christian-Albrechts Universität Kiel, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 309, 154 p.
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Freshwater Contamination (Proceedings of Rabat Symposium S4, Aprii-May 1997) IAHS Publ. no. 243,., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven; copied from hdl:10013/epic.10253.d001., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Ojaveer, E. (ed) Proceedings of the 14th Baltic Marine Biologists Symposium. Estonian Academy Publishers, Talinn., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Berichte aus dem Intitut für Meereskunde an der Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 302, 97 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Smetacek, Victor; de Baar, Hein JW; Bathmann, Ulrich; Lochte, Karin; Rutgers van der Loeff, Michiel M (1997): Ecology and biogeochemistry of the Antarctic circumpolar current during austral spring: Southern Ocean JGOFS Cruise ANT X/6 of R.V. Polarstern. D, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 00100-2
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    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Prähistorische Landschaften im Lößgebiet bei Regensburg - Kolluvien, Auenlehme und Böden als Archive der Paläoumwelt, Regensburger Geographische Schriften, Institut für Geographie an der Universität Regensburg, ISBN 3-88246-204-3 (31)., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Surface Meteorological Data Assembly Center, Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 6 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Mitt. AG Geobot. Schleswig-Holstein u. Hamburg 57, 17-27, Kiel., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Link to the source code of SIMMAX28 software, developed by Uwe Pflaumann for paleotemperature calculations from planktonic foraminifera assemblages. Related to Pflaumann, Uwe; Duprat, Josette; Pujol, Claude; Labeyrie, Laurent D (1996): SIMMAX: A modern analog technique to deduce Atlantic sea surface temperatures from planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments. Paleoceanography, 11(1), 15-36, doi:10.1029/95PA01743
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    In:  EPIC3Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Marine Environmental Data Service, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 6 p.
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Mitt. AG Geobot. Schleswig-Holstein u. Hamburg 57,44-52, Kiel., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3S.W. Jeffrey, R.F.C. Mantoura and S.W. Wright: Phytoplankton pigments in oceanography: guidelines to modern methods., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3S.W. Jeffrey, R.F.C. Mantoura and S.W. Wright: Phytoplankton pigments in oceanography: guidelines to modern methods., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Antrag/BMBF., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3GERMANIA, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 77, pp. 637-659
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    In:  EPIC3Gleditschia 27(1-2), Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 45-56
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    In:  EPIC3International Workshop on Carbon cycling and coral reef metabolism, Miyakojima, Japan, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, pp. 76-81
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    In:  EPIC3JGOFS-DMTT (1999): JGOFS International Collection, CTD, XBT and SeaSoar Data, Arabian Sea Process Study 1990-1997, JGOFS International Project Office (IPO) Centre for Studies of Environment and Resources, University of Bergen, Norway, CD-ROM., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Hemleben, Christoph; Roether, Wolfgang; Stoffers, Peter (1996): Östliches Mittelmeer, Rotes Meer, Arabisches Meer, Cruise No. 31, 30 December 1994 - 22 March 1995, Meteor-Berichte, Institut für Meereskunde der Universität Hamburg, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 96, 282 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Hemleben, Christoph; Roether, Wolfgang; Stoffers, Peter (1996): Östliches Mittelmeer, Rotes Meer, Arabisches Meer, Cruise No. 31, 30 December 1994 - 22 March 1995, Meteor-Berichte, Institut für Meereskunde der Universität Hamburg, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 96, 282 p.
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    In:  EPIC3JGOFS-DMTT (1999): JGOFS International Collection, CTD, XBT and SeaSoar Data, Arabian Sea Process Study 1990-1997, JGOFS International Project Office (IPO) Centre for Studies of Environment and Resources, University of Bergen, Norway, CD-ROM., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3WOCE., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3TSI Incorporated, www.tsi.com, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 4 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Dissertationes Botanicae, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 318, 98 p.
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    In:  EPIC3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
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    In:  EPIC3IDRONAUT S.r.l, www.idronaut.it, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 1 p.
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3Terra Antartica, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 5(3), pp. 327-335
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    In:  EPIC3Terra Antartica, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 5(3), pp. 473-478
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    In:  EPIC3Terra Antartica, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 5(3), pp. 485-491
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    In:  EPIC3Terra Antartica, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 5(3), pp. 579-587
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    In:  EPIC3Terra Antartica, Bremerhaven, PANGAEA, 5(3), pp. 553-570
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