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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: China has made substantial investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) to promote technological change (TC). Although the role of TC in enhancing agricultural production and mitigating environmental impacts is widely recognized in separate contexts, knowledge about its’ effects on food security and the environment, especially with a focus on China, is still lacking. This study uses an agro-economic optimization model to assess the impact of TC on food security and climate change mitigation. Our results indicate that TC plays an important role in improving agricultural productivity, which, in turn, contributes to a comparative advantage in agricultural trade. It also strengthens food security through lowering food prices. By contrast, a higher TC level increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, albeit marginally, due to higher agricultural production for exports. This indicates a rebound effect of agricultural productivity on GHG emissions. Therefore, additional efforts are required in China to improve food security without compromising GHG mitigation.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of daily and maximum annual discharge based on ISIMIP3a simulations from nine GHMs by comparing the simulations to observational data from 644 river gauge stations. We also assess low flows and the effects of different river routing schemes. We find that models can reproduce variability in daily and maximum annual discharge, but tend to overestimate both quantities, as well as low flows. Models perform better at stations in wetter areas and at lower elevations. Discharge routed with the river routing model CaMa-Flood can improve the performance of some models, but for others, variability is overestimated, leading to reduced model performance. This study indicates that areas for future model development include improving the simulation of processes in arid regions and cold dynamics at high elevations. We further suggest that studies attributing observed changes in discharge to historical climate change using the current model ensemble will be most meaningful in humid areas, at low elevations, and in places with a regular seasonal discharge as these are the regions where the underlying dynamics seem to be best represented.
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Quantitative climate mobility research has, so far, focused primarily on climate change impacts on migration outcomes. This focus has led to a separation between quantitative climate migration research and the broader field of migration studies. In this paper ways are proposed for quantitative research to better address the complexity in the relationship between climate change and mobility. First technical suggestions are presented to improve upon migration model setups and designs and highlight promising developments. Then it is argued that quantitative methodologies can broaden the scope of research inquiries by examining how climate mitigation and adaptation efforts influence mobility, as well as assessing how mobility itself impacts vulnerability.
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: This paper aims to improve the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performance across the Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM), specifically for SWAT simulation in the Manambolo, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins. A multi-gauge calibration was carried out to compare the performance of SWAT+ Toolbox, and R-SWAT, SWAT+ Editor Hard calibration on a monthly time step for the periods 1982–1999. We found that the SWAT+ model generated greater surface runoff, while the SWAT model resulted in higher groundwater flow in both CSFR and CHIRPS datasets. It has been demonstrated that the SWAT+ Toolbox had more potential in calibrating runoff across the MRBM compared to R-SWAT. Calibration in both methods led to a reduction in surface runoff, percolation, water yield, and curve number but increased the lateral flow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The results showed that the multi-gauge calibrations did not significantly enhance simulation performance in the MRBM compared to single-site calibration. The performance of the SWAT+ model for runoff simulation within the SWAT+ Toolbox and R-SWAT was unsatisfactory for most basins (NSE 〈 0) except for Betsiboka, Mahavavy, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, and Mangoky basins (NSE = 0.40–0.70; R2 = 0.45–0.80, PBIAS≤ ±25), whether considering the CHIRPS or CSFR datasets. Further study is still required to address this issue.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Central Asia (CA) is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs) are the primary forcing of the current and future climate system for the time scale of a century. By analysing observation datasets, we show that a warming of 1.2°C led to a decrease of 20% in snow-depth CA during the last 70 years, especially over the mountains. In recent decades, longer summer times and fewer icing days (more than 20 days·year−1) have exposed unprecedented shock to CA's climate system's components. Furthermore, we analyse 442 model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) and show that CMIP6 simulations are generally warmer and wetter than the CMIP5 ones in CA. For instance, under the highest emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5), CMIP6 projects a 6.1°C increase, while CMIP5 projects a 5.3°C increase, suggesting CMIP6 anticipates greater warming with high emissions. In contrast to CMIP6, the CMIP5 precipitation trends suggest a potential nonlinear relationship between increased greenhouse gas emissions and changes in precipitation, though the impact is much less pronounced than the temperature changes. Our analysis shows that CMIP6 models are more sensitive to temperature rise than CMIP5 ones. Both simulation sets' ensemble means capture well the observed warming trend. The imposed snow-melting leads to an increase in the run-off in the vicinity of glaciers. Such climatic shifts lead to more flooding events in CA. Given the projected warming range of 2–6°C in CA at the end of the century in various scenarios and models, such warming trends might be catastrophic in this region. The seasonal cycle of the temperature change indicates an extension of the glacier's melting period under future scenarios with fossil-fueled development. The models' uncertainty increases for the far-future time-slice, and warming larger than 4°C in CA is very likely among all the models and during all the seasons if no sustainable action is taken. This study also incorporates a detailed Köppen climate classification analysis, revealing significant shifts towards warmer climate categories in Central Asia, which may have profound implications for regional hydrological cycles and water resource management, particularly in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins under warmer scenario by the end of the century. The Tundra and ice cap climate categories will lose more than 60% of their coverage at the end of the century compared to the historical period in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: In response to the climate and biodiversity crisis, the number of transdisciplinary research projects in which researchers partner with sustainability initiatives to foster transformative change is increasing globally. To enable and catalyze substantial transformative change, transformative transdisciplinary research (TTDR) is urgently needed to provide knowledge and guidance for actions. We review prominent discussions on TTDR and draw on our experiences from research projects in the Global South and North. Drawing on this, we identify key gaps and stimulate debate on how sustainability researchers can enable and catalyze transformative change by advancing five priority areas: clarify what TTDR is, conduct meaningful people-centric research, unpack how to act at deep leverage points, improve engagement with diverse knowledge systems, and explore potentials and risks of global digitalization for transformative change.
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: This article explores the role of energy in regionalization processes, assessing the case of natural gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean (East Med). It makes three observations. First, we show that energy resources are a defining factor in shaping a region by rearranging the interactions and networks of actors involved in regionalization processes. Second, we demonstrate that such “energization” processes are not only—and not even primarily—attributable to security practices pursued by state actors. Regionalization underpinned by energy as the key governance object is characterized by a variety of actors, including governments, but also international energy companies, investors, consumers, and regulators. Third, we posit that regionalization processes cannot be fully understood without appreciating the importance of existing global and regional governance frameworks and the values ascribed to the physical resource by international market forces. The findings call on International Relations to go beyond analyzing the East Med energy region through the prism of security studies, which arguably is a function of both theoretical path dependence and a lack of attention to the insights from energy studies. Instead, a multidisciplinary research agenda promises to strengthen academic inquiry into regionalization dynamics in the East Med and the role of regions in world politics more broadly.
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: As climate targets tighten, all countries must transition toward a renewable electricity system, but conflicts about generation and infrastructure deployment impede transition progress. Although the triggers of opposition are well studied, what people want remains understudied. We survey citizen preferences for a renewable electricity future through a conjoint analysis among 4,103 individuals in Denmark, Portugal, Poland, and Germany. With our study we go beyond the Likert scale survey approach specifically seeking trade-offs and contextualized preferences for regional electricity system designs. We show the importance of identifying both the ‘‘least preferred’’ and ‘‘most preferred’’ solutions and highlighting the possibility of identifying very different systems with identical utility. Lastly, our research actively bridges the divide between social aspects and techno-economic modeling, promoting their integration. We show that the most preferred system design in all four countries is a predominantly regional one, based on rooftop solar, communally owned, and not relying on transmission expansion.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Various analyses show that right-wing populist parties (RWP) tend to be sceptical of climate science and policy. This points to a blank space in the dominant analyses of populism: their blindness towards society-nature relations. This paper aims to develop an approach grounded in Cultural Political Economy (CPE) that can be used to decipher the mediation of RWP within the context of economic, political, and cultural developments as well as society–nature relations. Against this background, the argument is developed that RWP is concerned not only with countering migration and processes of societal liberalisation, but also with defending an existing way of life that is firmly rooted in the destructive appropriation of nature. As a current of right-wing politics, RWP defends the imperial mode of living by expressing scepticism towards the existence of anthropogenic climate change. The paper contributes to a better understanding of the political economy of RWP by linking the dimensions of social domination with the appropriation of nature.
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Governments and international organizations are increasingly using public funds to mobilize and leverage private finance for climate projects in the Global South. An important international organization in the effort to mobilize the private sector for financing climate mitigation and adaptation in the Global South is the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The GCF was established under the UNFCCC in 2010 and is the world’s largest dedicated multilateral climate fund. The GCF differs from other intergovernmental institutions through its fund-wide inclusion of the private sector, ranging from project design and financing to project implementation. In this paper, we investigate private sector involvement in the GCF through a qualitative exploratory research approach. We ask two main questions: Do private sector projects deliver on their ambitious goals? What are the tensions, if any, between private sector engagement and other principles of the GCF (most importantly the principles of country ownership, mitigation/adaptation balance, transparency, and civil society participation)? This paper argues that private sector involvement does not provide an easy way out of the financial constraints of public climate financing. We show that the GCF fails to deliver on its ambitious goals in private sector engagement for a number of reasons. First, private sector interest in GCF projects is thus far underwhelming. Second, there are strong tradeoffs between private sector projects and the Global Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation (GPEDC) principles of country ownership, transparency, and civil society participation. Third, private sector involvement is creating a mitigation bias within the GCF portfolio. Fourth, while the private sector portfolio is good at channeling funds to particularly vulnerable countries, it does so mostly through large multi-country projects with weak country ownership. Fifth, there is a danger that private climate financing based on loans and equity might add to the debt burden of developing countries, destabilize financial markets, and further increase dependency on the Global North.
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Real-world labs are witnessing continued growth and institutionalization in the field of transformation-oriented sustainability research, as well as in adjacent disciplines. With their experimental research agendas, these labs aim at sustainability transformations, however, there is still a need to improve the understanding of their impacts. Drawing from this Special Issue’s contributions, we offer a broad overview of the impacts achieved by various real-world labs, highlight the diverse areas and forms of impact, and elucidate strategies as well as mechanisms for achieving impact. We present methodological advances, and address common challenges along with potential solutions for understanding and realizing impact.
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Policymakers and governments increasingly frame climate protection in terms of green growth, arguing that continued economic growth and climate protection are complementary and mutually beneficial. With such framing, governments hope to overcome the global common goods problem associated with climate change and to enable higher ambition on climate action within and across states. Yet, no empirical evidence to date has been provided on how widespread the support for green growth is in international climate politics. This paper, therefore, investigates which countries employ green growth framings at UNFCCC negotiations, and whether this relates to domestic factors, in particular economic structure, level of development and climate impacts. We conduct panel-data analysis on green growth positions derived from hand-coding a unique dataset of High-level Segment statements at the Convention of the Parties (COPs) from 2010 to 2019 for 151 countries. The results reveal that, to date, green growth proponents are those countries with the most advanced national clean energy technology (CET) capacities–as measured by the Green Complexity Index. The findings highlight that green growth is not promoted by all countries at international climate negotiations. Key policy insights In international climate negotiations, climate protection is increasingly framed as a green growth opportunity to motivate global ambition. Clean Energy Technology (CET) leading countries are more likely to use green growth framings than other less-technologically advanced peers and those with high exposure to climate risks. Mechanisms to support green growth pathways for all countries should be scaled up, including technology transfer and finance to foster local capacities and human capital. Given that green growth framings are not universally endorsed, further emphasis should be placed on additional co-benefits of climate action beyond economic growth, such as food and energy security, adaptation and resilience-building.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Real-world laboratories (RwLs) are gaining further traction as a means to achieve systemic impacts towards sustainability transformation. To guide the analysis of intended impacts, we introduce the concept of leverage points, discerning where, how, and to what end RwLs intervene in systems. Building on conceptual reasoning, we further develop our argument by exploring two RwL cases. Examining RwLs through the lens of the leverage points opens the way for a balanced and comprehensive approach to systemic experimentation. We invite RwL researchers and practitioners to further advance RwLs’ transformative capacity by targeting the design and emerging direction of a system, contributing to a culture of sustainability.
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2024-06-04
    Description: Observed climate changes in Pacific island countries (PICs) are causing detrimental effects on the health of communities. Increased frequency and intensity of cyclones, more extremely hot days, and changes in rainfall patterns can change the geographic distribution of vector-borne diseases, decrease food and water security and safety, and strain health service capacity. These impacts are projected to worsen with additional climate change in the absence of strong and effective mitigation and adaptation measures. Health vulnerability and adaptation assessments conducted in twelve PICs in 2014 highlighted significant knowledge gaps on the national health risks of climate change and on adaptation implementation and policy translation. We synthesize recent research to identify approaches to support evidence-based policymaking to increase resilience of health systems in the Pacific. Broad areas where further and substantial investment and support are needed include: (i) health workforce capacity development; (ii) enhanced surveillance and monitoring systems, and (iii) research to enhance understanding of risks and effective interventions and their subsequent translation into practice and policy. Finally, health facilities need urgent upgrades; many are old and located in coastal areas, and are heavy users of coal-fired electricity.
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  • 16
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    Universität Göttingen,Abteilung Bodenphysik
    In:  Universität Göttingen
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: conference
    Keywords: Konferenzschrift
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: We study the impact of California’s cap-and-trade system on carbon emissions in the electricity and industrial sectors. We use US state-level panel data covering the period 2005–2019 and apply the synthetic control method to construct an optimal counterfactual for per capita emissions in each sector. In our experiment, emissions in the power sector fall below counterfactual emissions by 48%. In the industrial sector, the state’s emissions are 6% higher than those of the synthetic control unit by the end of the observation period. Thus, cap-and-trade failed to deliver decarbonization across both sectors. While the abatement in the power sector was facilitated by complementary policies and driven by a switch from natural gas to renewables, California’s policy mix has disincentivized emission reductions in the industrial sector.
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  • 18
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    In:  Maintenance and Philosophy of Technology : Keeping Things Going
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: This chapter focuses on the maintenance of waste infrastructures in urban areas, arguing that waste infrastructures and their maintenance should be made more visible to allow for a more extensive, ethical engagement with waste. This contribution claims that cities need to approach the (re)design of municipal waste infrastructures through dynamic maintenance and reflexive repair, wherein waste, repair and maintenance are understood as discursive processes. Waste infrastructures and their maintenance are mostly invisible in daily interactions in cities in High-Income Countries, despite the diversities in waste practices, such as collection and processing. Invisibility is an intended outcome of the design and operation of these infrastructures, stemming from a nineteenth-century waste imaginary called ‘the tidy city’. Current municipal waste infrastructures are kept invisible, upholding beliefs and practices that disvalue waste. While visions have been proposed that challenge this disvalue, few of them have been able to materialise in stratified municipal waste management systems. This engagement is seen as a first step in challenging modern notions of dirt and waste. Visibility is a (new) design criterion for municipal waste infrastructures, a criterion that the authors relate to waste-affirming beliefs and practices, elaborating on anthropological perspectives on dirt and waste.
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Little consideration has been given to the process of technological change in political theory. Given that ideas about this process play an important role in many strands of normative political thought, and are especially crucial to climate change politics, this is a remarkable oversight. It risks political theory being irrelevant to climate change mitigation. The implications of this oversight for political theory are explored here through an analysis of the liberalism-ecologism debate. The article argues that attempts to green liberalism – to move it beyond environmentalism – cannot succeed while liberalism is silent about technological change. More broadly, given that most political theory traditions make claims about technological change, claims crucial to their worldviews and normative goals, it argues that much more theorisation of the concept is necessary. Especially now that they shape how the world understands climate change mitigation, contests over the meaning of technological change are intensely political contests. Political theory needs to get much more involved.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Deep-sea mining (DSM) will be highly energy-intensive and produce myriad emissions, including greenhouse gases (GHG). By and large, the emissions arising from DSM activities in areas beyond national jurisdiction (‘The Area’) do not yet fall within the remit of any international agreement and are thus unregulated. To close this gap, two incisive steps need to be taken. First, States must decide under which international regime(s) they want to regulate GHG-emissions from DSM operations (forum choice). Second, they must select the means to mitigate emissions (instrument choice). Forum and instrument choice should be decided in tandem as forum choice tends to influence instrument choice and vice versa. We explore the various possibilities and argue that the International Seabed Authority (ISA) is the most suitable forum, as it could implement a harmonized and targeted approach for this unique sector. We recommend that the ISA commission a technical study to assess the amount of GHG emissions expected to arise from DSM activities in the Area and evaluate the costs and benefits of implementing and enforcing various policy instruments. Such an exercise is both urgently needed and timely, particularly as the ISA is currently formulating the rules for mineral exploitation.
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  • 21
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    In:  Systemic practice and action research
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: This paper addresses the need for effective and fair codes of conduct for public-good-oriented transdisciplinary processes. These processes are characterized by the production of socially robust orientations (SoROs) through mutual learning and developing better action strategies by merging knowledge from practice and science. We argue that transdisciplinary processes should be governed by an appropriate social rule system that comprises codes of conduct for collaboration (CCC) in transdisciplinary discourses. In our view, participants in a transdisciplinary process must (1) follow rules of mutuality between science and practice (accepting the otherness of the other) and (2) enable the use and integration of knowledge from science and practice (e.g., through responsibility and/or co-leadership at all levels of a project). This requires (3) a protected discourse arena similar to an expanded Chatham House Rule that facilitates the generation of groundbreaking, novel ideas for sustainable transition. In transdisciplinary processes, CCC are based on these three perspectives and can be explicitly introduced yet require cultural and situational adaptations. Many aspects of transdisciplinary processes, such as legal status (e.g., who owns the data generated, whether it is a group or formal organization), are often unclear and need further investigation.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Sustainability research emphasizes the importance of intervening with both individual and organizational behaviours as well as the systems that shape them to create sustainability transformations. However, to date there is a lack of studies that bridge the divide between small case-based interventions and global systems at broader scales, and the complex interactions across scales and processes. This paper works with a leverage points framework to consider systems transformation. It focuses on four individual sustainability interventions in the textile sector and explores how they are embedded within a complex set of nested systems, and how these connected systems shape the transformative potential of the interventions. By using an onion metaphor for systems with several onion layers representing the current textile sector and its multiple connected and nested systems, we integrate and reflect across four in-depth case studies, conducted over a period of 3 years, using a range of empirical research approaches. The findings show that the studied interventions all target multiple deep leverage points within their target systems of production and consumption. All are limited in fulfilling their transformative potential by a range of barriers that we trace back to the economic and policy and regulation systems that they are embedded within. The economic system enforces a paradigm of consumption-based growth, and the policy and regulation system fails to either support change, or restrict unsustainable behaviours. Our findings demonstrate the need to think across systems scales to understand leverage points and transformative change; our nested systems approach is one way to do so. We outline two promising pathways for sustainability transformations: (1) focussing on how to create spillover effects of favourable interventions in sub-systems to push outwards against the constraints of the current policy and regulation, and economic systems; and (2) by targeting actors and interventions within the policy and regulation and economic systems to create change in the paradigms and design they embody and enforce on the systems nested within them.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Social-ecological transformation has become an important concept in the face of profound planetary crises (loss of biodiversity, climate crisis). Recently, the needs for social scientific transformation research have become more clearly defined. We reflect on the role of the social sciences and the humanities in democratically shaping social transformation in interaction with other sectors of society. Finally, we sketch three examples that illustrate the kind of new methodological and institutional approaches to be pursued.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Superconducting cables have been proven in a variety of pilot projects and utility installations, demonstrating several of their advantages, including compact size and low energy losses, which can make the technology economically attractive for certain applications. It is clear though that different applications impose different requirements and challenges, but also opportunities for the cables. An interesting application is high-power DC transfer at medium voltage (MVDC). The high-current capability of the superconductor allows for a reduction in voltage while maintaining or increasing the power transfer level. In this way, one MVDC superconducting cable can replace one or more conventional high-voltage DC cables. In the European project Superconducting cables for sustainable energy transition (SCARLET), two types of MVDC cables will be developed, one based on HTS and one on MgB2 materials. Additionally, protection requirements will be considered, including the development of a modular DC fault current limiter for 10 kA. A main motivation for the development is the elimination of costly high-voltage converter stations when going from high to medium voltage, e.g., for offshore wind power plants. Another feature is the combined hydrogen and electricity transmission from generation sites to industry or mobility end users. This paper describes the superconducting MVDC cable concept as well as the main challenges and research needed to develop and type test the cables.
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  • 26
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    In:  Polity : the journal of the Northeastern Political Science Association
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Today, populism is widely understood to entail an exclusionary conception of “the people” that threatens climate change action. While this threat is real, I argue that populism itself can be understood as a response to perceived exclusion and marginalization, making it possible to conceptualize a more heterogeneous conception of populism’s “people.” Examining two approaches to climate change action rooted in contrasting conceptions of the people and the elite, I argue that climate justice organizing offers a promising effort to construct a heterogeneous people and offers a powerful critique of the elite representation of climate change action in which “we are all in this together.” Yet along with this promise, climate justice organizing must navigate tensions that are inescapable within any populist formation. One neglected thread of populist history and theory offers resources for doing so; in the final section of this paper, I explore its relevance to climate justice today.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: The combination of liquid hydrogen and superconducting cables presents a unique opportunity to distribute both hydrogen and bulk electricity in the same infrastructure. In particular, liquid hydrogen around 20 K is ideally suited for cooling the MgB2 superconductor, resulting in a compact power cable that also leaves sufficient place for the hydrogen flow. Such a hybrid system operating in the MVDC range at 25 kV and 20 kA constitutes one of the main goals of the European project SCARLET. After a description of the rationale and benefits of the electricity - hydrogen system, various possible applications and a first distribution system are presented. Furthermore, the different cable components already designed are discussed along with the research challenges and general strategy for the development.
    Language: English
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-06-03
    Description: Mainstream Online Social Networks (OSNs) face extensive criticism for their revenue model and its negative consequences for users and societies. While experts often discuss alternative OSN models, little is known about potential users’ evaluations of different OSN models. To close this research gap, the present study investigates how non-expert individuals, i.e., potential users, evaluate mainstream OSNs and expert-proposed alternative models. Next to the general evaluations of different models, individual differences among users open to various OSN models were explored. Three OSN scenarios were created based on interviews with experts from academia and industry and presented to samples of German adolescents (N = 1166) and adults (N = 878): one describing the “status quo”, one “option” model similar to the model currently considered by Meta, and one describing a “public-service” broadcasting OSN. Participants rated each characteristic of the “status quo” scenario, indicated their willingness to pay for each of the three OSN models, and specified their preferred OSN model next to providing sociodemographic information. Replicated across both samples was that the “status quo” scenario received predominantly negative evaluations. Further replicated across both samples was that most participants were willing to pay for a “public-service” OSN and chose this model as the preferred one. Only a few significant relations of sociodemographic variables were observed. Consistently replicated across both samples, men rated various characteristics of the “status quo” scenario more positively, and women were more likely to prefer the “public-service” OSN. Some differences between the two samples also emerged. In summary, both adolescents and adults demonstrated receptivity to alternative OSN models, especially a public-service broadcasting OSN. Most sociodemographic factors had limited influence indicating potential widespread adoption if such an alternative was implemented – at least in Germany. Consequences arising from such a model for platform design, policy, regulation, and governance are discussed.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Urban heat island (UHI) not only reflects the environmental thermal comfort and energy consumption, but also affects the urban meso‑scale climate. There are many researches related with UHI mainly focusing on urban and rural area, while neglecting dynamic rural–urban transition especially in a rapid urbanization in China. Beijing and Zhengzhou are studied by using city clustering algorithm (CCA) and boundary generation algorithm (BGA) to delineate the urban, peri‑urban and rural boundaries from 2000 to 2023 within three stages. Fourier transform model was used to identify the UHI patterns. Results show: 1) Two cities have undergone obvious expansions in 20 years, with a consistent mean LST decrease from urban to peri‑urban and rural areas in three stages. 2) The distribution of UHII was more consistent in Beijing, while it varied more in Zhengzhou across seasons. 3) The UHI patterns notably differ, with Zhengzhou experiencing variable patterns and Beijing consistently showing oblate patterns. 4) The profiles of UHII and NDVI in two cities varied seasonally and reflected urban expansions in terms of longitude and latitude. Understanding the long-term changes and patterns of urban heat islands in different cities will provide information for formulating adaptive policies for urban sustainability.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Transportation and mobility patterns contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the drivers of these emissions, particularly for high emitters, is key to designing appropriate climate and mobility policies. In this article, we study the distribution of emissions from mobility in Germany and their drivers. We use a 2017 nation-wide mobility survey to calculate the carbon footprint of individuals associated with day-to-day and long-distance travels. We use quantile regression to investigate both socio-economic and attitudinal drivers of emissions across different categories of emitters, and for different mobility types. We discuss our results with respect to previous findings in the literature. Overall, we find that the top 10% of emitters are responsible for 51% of total emissions, and for 80% of emissions from long-distance travel. The statistical analysis reveals strong differences regarding the contribution of socio-economic drivers such as income or location at different levels of emissions. Attitudes towards different transportation modes also strongly correlate with differences in mobility behaviors.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Climate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Background: Inherited blood disorders affect 7% of the population worldwide, with higher prevalences in countries in the “thalassemia belt,” which includes Bangladesh. Clinical management options for severely affected individuals are expensive; thus, targeted government policies are needed to support prevention and treatment programs. In Bangladesh, there is a lack of data, in particular community-based estimates, to determine population prevalence. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of a wide range of hemoglobinopathies and their associations with anemia in a community-based sample of women and young children in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh. - Methods: Capillary blood samples from 900 reproductive-aged women and 395 children (aged 6–37 months) participating in the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) trial in two sub-districts of Habiganj, Sylhet Division, Bangladesh were analyzed for alpha thalassemia, beta thalassemia, and other hemoglobinopathies. We examined the association of each inherited blood disorder with hemoglobin concentration and anemia using linear and logistic regression. - Results: We identified at least one inherited blood disorder in 11% of women and 10% of children. Alpha thalassemia was most prevalent, identified in 7% of women and 5% of children, followed by beta thalassemia and hemoglobin E in 2–3%. We also identified cases of hemoglobin S and hemoglobin D in this population. Having any of the identified inherited blood disorders was associated with lower hemoglobin values among non-pregnant women, largely driven by alpha and beta thalassemia. Pregnant women with beta thalassemia were also more likely to have lower hemoglobin concentrations. Among children, we found weak evidence for a relationship between hemoglobinopathy and lower hemoglobin concentrations. - Conclusions: We found a high prevalence of alpha thalassemia among both women and children in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh–higher than all other identified hemoglobinopathies combined. Community-based estimates of alpha thalassemia prevalence in Bangladesh are scarce, yet our findings suggest that alpha thalassemia may comprise the majority of inherited blood disorders in some regions of the country. We recommend that future research on inherited blood disorders in Bangladesh include estimates of alpha thalassemia in their reporting for public health awareness and to facilitate couples counseling.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Oil palm cultivation has become one of the world's most important drivers of land use change in the tropics causing biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. The impact of climate change and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere on oil palm productivity is not well understood. If environmental change leads to declining palm oil yields in existing cultivation areas, cultivation areas may expand or shift to other regions. Here we assess climate change impacts on palm oil production using an extended version of the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, and a range of climate scenarios from the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project. We find increasing average yields under all future climate scenarios. This contradicts earlier studies, which did not consider the potential positive effect of CO2 fertilization. If we do not account for CO2 fertilization, future yields also decrease in our simulations. Our results indicate the potentially large role of rising CO2 levels on oil palm cultivation. This highlights the importance of further applied plant science to better understand the impact of climate change and elevated CO2 levels on oil palm growth and productivity.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Many physical, biological, and social systems exhibit emergent properties arising from their components’ interactions (cells). In this study, we systematically treat every-pair interactions (a) that exhibit power-law dependence on the Euclidean distance and (b) act in structures that can be characterized using fractal geometry. It can represent the two-body interaction potential, the heat flux between two parts of a structure, friendship strength between two people, etc.. We analytically derive the average intensity of influence that one cell has on the others or, conversely, receives from them. This quantity is referred to as the mean interaction field of the cells, and we find that (i) in a long-range interaction regime, the mean interaction field increases following a power-law with the size of the system, (ii) in a short-range interaction regime, the field saturates, and (iii) in the intermediate range it follows a logarithmic behavior. To validate our analytical solution, we perform numerical simulations. For long-range interactions, the theoretical calculations align closely with the numerical results. However, for short-range interactions, we observe that discreteness significantly impacts the continuum approximation used in the derivation, leading to incorrect asymptotic behavior in this regime. To address this issue, we propose an expansion that substantially improves the accuracy of the analytical expression. We discuss applications of the every-pair interactions system proposed, and one of them is to explore a framework for estimating the fractal dimension of unknown structures. This approach offers an alternative to established methods such as box-counting or sandbox methods. Overall, we believe that our analytical work will have broad applicability in systems where every-pair interactions play a role.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes 〉30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes 〈30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Mountain glaciers are sensitive recorders of natural and human-induced climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate and glacier response on both short and long timescales. Here we present an analysis of oxygen and carbon isotope data from speleothems formed mainly below a glacier-covered catchment in the Alps 300,000 to 200,000 years ago. Isotope-enabled climate model simulations reveal that δ18O of precipitation in the Alps was higher by approximately 1 ‰ during interstadials compared to stadials. This agrees with interstadial-stadial amplitudes of our new speleothem-based estimate after correcting for cave-internal effects. We propose that the variability of these cave-internal effects offers a unique tool for reconstructing long-term dynamics of warm-based Alpine palaeoglaciers. Our data thereby suggests a close link between North Atlantic interstadial-stadial variability and the meltwater dynamics of Alpine glaciers during Marine Isotope Stage 8 and 7d.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective but also constitutes an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes, as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with very simple climate models for Earth's entire history or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons and the identification of secular changes difficult. Here, we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth's history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO2 concentration decreased more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago but dropped faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there was a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the critical state about 1.2 billion years ago (unrelated to the downturn in critical CO2 values), driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance: for critical states at low solar luminosities, the ice line lies in the Ferrel cell, stabilised by the poleward winds despite moderate meridional temperature gradients under strong greenhouse warming. For critical states at high solar luminosities, on the other hand, the ice line rests at the Hadley cell boundary, stabilised against the equatorward winds by steep meridional temperature gradients resulting from the increased solar energy input at lower latitudes and stronger Ekman transport in the ocean.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: To represent the impact of grazing livestock on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in grasslands, we implement a livestock module into LPJmL5.0-tillage, a global vegetation and crop model with explicit representation of managed grasslands and pastures, forming LPJmL5.0-grazing. The livestock module uses lactating dairy cows as a generic representation of grazing livestock. The new module explicitly accounts for forage quality in terms of dry-matter intake and digestibility using relationships derived from compositional analyses for different forages. Partitioning of N into milk, feces, and urine as simulated by the new livestock module shows very good agreement with observation-based relationships reported in the literature. Modelled C and N dynamics depend on forage quality (C:N ratios in grazed biomass), forage quantity, livestock densities, manure or fertilizer inputs, soil, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate conditions. Due to the many interacting relationships, C sequestration, GHG emissions, N losses, and livestock productivity show substantial variation in space and across livestock densities. The improved LPJmL5.0-grazing model can now assess the effects of livestock grazing on C and N stocks and fluxes in grasslands. It can also provide insights about the spatio-temporal variability of grassland productivity and about the trade-offs between livestock production and environmental impacts.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios which only take gradual changes in the climate into account. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the changes in ice flow, invoked by the altered surface topography. As a first constraint, this study estimates the overall effect of extreme melt events on the cumulative mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the sea level contribution from Greenland might increase by 2 to 45 cm (0.2 % to 14 %) by the year 2300 if extreme events occur more frequently in the future under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, and the ice sheet area might be reduced by an additional 6000 to 26 000 km2 by 2300 in comparison to future warming scenarios without extremes. In conclusion, projecting the future sea level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet requires consideration of the changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events. It is crucial to individually address these extremes at a monthly resolution as temperature forcing with the same excess temperature but evenly distributed over longer timescales (e.g., seasonal) leads to less sea level rise than for the simulations of the resolved extremes. Extremes lead to additional mass loss and thinning. This, in turn, reduces the driving stress and surface velocities, ultimately dampening the ice loss attributed to ice flow and discharge. Overall, we find that the surface elevation feedback largely amplifies melting for scenarios with and without extremes, with additional mass loss attributed to this feedback having the greatest impact on projected sea level.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The timescales of the flow and retreat of Greenland’s and Antarctica’s outlet glaciers and their potential instabilities are arguably the largest uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Here we derive a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of observed complex ice flow fields with geometric similarity. The scaling relation is derived under the assumption of fast, laterally confined, geometrically similar outlet-glacier flow over a slippery bed, i.e., with negligible basal friction. According to the relation, the time scaling of the outlet flow is determined by the product of the inverse of 1) the fourth power of the width-to-length ratio of its confinement, 2) the third power of the confinement depth and 3) the temperature- dependent ice softness. For the outflow at the grounding line of streams with negligible basal friction this means that the volume flux is proportional to the ice softness and the bed depth, but goes with the fourth power of the gradient of the bed and with the fifth power of the width of the stream. We show that the theoretically derived scaling relation is supported by the observed velocity scaling of outlet glaciers across Greenland as well as by idealized numerical simulations of marine ice-sheet instabilities (MISIs) as found in Antarctica. Assuming that changes in the ice-flow velocity due to ice-dynamic imbalance are proportional to the equilibrium velocity, we combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 MISI-prone Antarctic outlets. Under these assumptions the timescales in response to a potential destabilization are fastest for Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and Mellor, Ninnis and Cook Glaciers in East Antarctica; between 16 and 67 times faster than for Pine Island Glacier. While the applicability of our results is limited by several strong assumptions, the utilization and potential further development of the presented scaling approach may help to constrain time-scale estimates of outlet glacier- flow, augmenting the commonly exploited and comparatively computationally expensive approach of numerical modeling.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: We present a new open source dataset FLODIS that links estimates of flood-induced human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages to flooded areas observed through remote sensing. The dataset connects displacement data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), as well as data on fatalities and damages from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), with the Global Flood Database (GFD), a satellite-based inventory of historic flood footprints. It thereby provides a spatially explicit estimate of the flood hazard underlying each individual disaster event. FLODIS contains two datasets with event-specific information for 335 human displacement events and 695 mortality/damage events that occurred around the world between 2000 and 2018. Additionally, we provide estimates of affected population, GDP, and critical infrastructure, as well as socio-economic indicators; and we provide geocoding for displacement events ascribed to other types of disasters, such as tropical cyclones, so that they may be linked to corresponding hazard estimates in future work. FLODIS facilitates integrated flood risk analysis, allowing, for example, for detailed assessments of local flood-damage and displacement vulnerability.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Many phenomena of high relevance for economic development such as human capital, geography and climate vary considerably within countries as well as between them. Yet, global data sets of economic output are typically available at the national level only, thereby limiting the accuracy and precision of insights gained through empirical analyses. Recent work has used interpolation and downscaling to yield estimates of sub-national economic output at a global scale, but respective data sets based on official, reported values only are lacking. We here present DOSE — the MCC-PIK Database Of Sub-national Economic Output. DOSE contains harmonised data on reported economic output from 1,661 sub-national regions across 83 countries from 1960 to 2020. To avoid interpolation, values are assembled from numerous statistical agencies, yearbooks and the literature and harmonised for both aggregate and sectoral output. Moreover, we provide temporally- and spatially-consistent data for regional boundaries, enabling matching with geo-spatial data such as climate observations. DOSE provides the opportunity for detailed analyses of economic development at the subnational level, consistent with reported values.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia by mid-July, shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double jet structure and a tripolar sea-surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were identified already in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid- and upper-levels were often of remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses had primarily a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as this of 2018 is expected to occur every two out of three years in Europe under a 1.5 °C warmer world and virtually every single year under 2 °C of global warming. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of effects and provide valuable information as basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Background: Heat exposure, which can negatively affect human health and wellbeing, is heterogeneous within US cities. However, little is known about who can avoid heat stress by adjusting their everyday behaviour. We aimed to analyse the effect of ambient temperature on mobility, specifically subway (ie, the underground railway system) use, in New York City, NY, USA, during 2014–19. - Methods: For this empirical study, subway use across New York City was measured with turnstile data from the New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Passenger numbers were then aggregated to the zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) level. Daily observational climate data were obtained from the US National Weather Service between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Socioeconomic data at the ZCTA level originated from the American Community Survey 2019. We extracted data on population age, ethnicity, commuting, employment, median household income, rent, and health-insurance coverage. We used a fixed-effects panel-regression model to assess the influence of temperature on subway use in New York City, which was the main outcome of our study. - Findings: We obtained data for 438 subway stations across New York City. After data cleaning and preprocessing, the final aggregated data sample consisted of 238 508 instances of subway use in 1955 days across 6 years for 122 ZCTAs, with 168 days missing in the raw data and 67 days removed as outliers. The results of the fixed-effects panel-regression analysis showed a strong, non-linear effect of daily maximum temperature on subway use. Subway use was highest at 11·5°C and substantially decreased for temperatures that were colder and warmer than that, with reductions reaching 6·5% (95% CI 2·5–10·5) for the coldest temperature (ie, –6·5°C) and 10·5% (6·0–14·0) for the hottest temperature (ie, 34·5°C). Reductions differed between weekdays and weekends, when residents generally had more freedom to adjust their behaviour. Neighbourhoods that were at a socioeconomic disadvantage experienced smaller or no reductions in mobility in heat; mobility increased in neighbourhoods with beach access. - Interpretation: Our study showed that temperature had a strong, non-linear effect on subway use, but the magnitude of the effect on subway use was heterogeneous across areas of the city on warm days. Weaker avoidance of heat stress correlated with less privilege, indicating compounding health risks. Everyday behavioural adaptation to heat is therefore an effect pathway that contributes to unequal heat effects and should be explored in future research.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Vine phenology modelling is increasingly important for winegrowers and viticulturists. Model calibration is often required before practical applications. However, when multiple models and optimization methods are applied for different varieties, it is rarely known which factor tends to mostly affect the calibration results. We mainly aim to investigate the main source of the variability in the modelling errors for the flowering timings of two important varieties of vine in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) of Portugal; this is based on five phenology model simulations that use optimal parameters and that are estimated by three optimization algorithms (MLE, SA and SCE-UA). Our results indicate that the main source of the variability in calibration can be affected by the initially assumed parameter boundary. Restricting the initial parameter distribution to a narrow range impedes the algorithm from exploring the full parameter space and searching for optimal parameters. This can lead to the largest variation in different models. At an identified appropriate boundary, the difference between the two varieties represents the largest source of uncertainty, while the choice of algorithm for calibration contributes least to the overall uncertainty. The smaller variability among different models or algorithms (tools for analysis) compared to between different varieties could indicate the overall reliability of the calibration. All optimization algorithms show similar results in terms of the obtained goodness-of-fit: the RMSE (MAE) is 5–6 (4–5) days with a negligible mean bias and moderately good R2 (0.5–0.6) for the ensemble median predictor. Nevertheless, a similar predictive performance can result from differently estimated parameter values, due to the equifinality or multi-modal issue in which different parameter combinations give similar results. This mainly occurs for models with a non-linear structure compared to those with a near-linear one. Yet, the former models are found to outperform the latter ones in predicting the flowering timing of the two varieties in the DDR. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of carefully defining the initial parameter boundary and decomposing the total variance of prediction errors. This study is expected to bring new insights that will help to better inform users about the importance of choice when these factors are involved in calibration. Nonetheless, the importance of each factor can change depending on the specific situation. Details of how the optimization methods are applied and of the continuous model improvement are important.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Data on women’s living conditions and socio-economic development are important for understanding and addressing the pronounced challenges and inequalities faced by women worldwide. While such information is increasingly available at the national level, comparable data at the sub-national level are missing. We here present the LivWell global longitudinal dataset, which includes a set of key indicators on women’s socio-economic status, health and well-being, access to basic services and demographic outcomes. It covers 447 regions in 52 countries and includes a total of 265 different indicators. The majority of these are based on 199 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for the period 1990–2019 and are complemented by extensive information on socio-economic and climatic conditions in the respective regions. The resulting dataset offers various opportunities for policy-relevant research on gender inequality, inclusive development and demographic trends at the sub-national level.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: Classic Maya populations living in peri-urban states were highly dependent on seasonally distributed rainfall for reliable surplus crop yields. Despite intense study of the potential impact of decadal to centennial-scale climatic changes on the demise of Classic Maya sociopolitical institutions (750-950 CE), its direct importance remains debated. We provide a detailed analysis of a precisely dated speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize, that reflects local hydroclimatic changes at seasonal scale over the past 1600 years. We find that the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline occurred in the context of a pronounced decrease in the predictability of seasonal rainfall and severe drought between 700 and 800 CE. The failure of Classic Maya societies to successfully adapt to volatile seasonal rainfall dynamics likely contributed to gradual but widespread processes of sociopolitical disintegration. We propose that the complex abandonment of Classic Maya population centres was not solely driven by protracted drought but also aggravated by year-to-year decreases in rainfall predictability, potentially caused by a regional reduction in coherent Intertropical Convergence Zone-driven rainfall.
    Language: English
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2024-05-31
    Description: We present the Land Input Generator (LandInG) version 1.0, a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. While LandInG 1.0 is applicable to process data for any TEM, it is developed specifically for the open-source dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena with managed Land). The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data to model inputs and allows for easy changes to the spatial resolution. It is designed to make inconsistencies between different sources of data transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with the default assumptions made here. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at 5 and 30 arcmin spatial resolution covering land, country, and region masks, soil, river networks, freshwater reservoirs, irrigation water distribution networks, crop-specific annual land use, fertilizer, and manure application. We focus on the toolbox describing the data processing rather than only publishing the datasets as users may want to make different choices for reconciling inconsistencies, aggregation, spatial extent, or similar. Also, new data sources or new versions of existing data become available continuously, and the toolbox approach allows for incorporating new data to stay up to date.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Past vegetation, fire, and climate dynamics, as well as human impact, have been reconstructed for the first time in the highlands of the Gilan province in the Alborz mountains (above the Hyrcanian forest) for the last 4,300 cal yrs bp. Multi-proxy analysis, including pollen, spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, and geochemical analysis, has been applied to investigate the environmental changes at 2,280 m a.s.l., above the Hyrcanian forest. Dominant steppe vegetation occurred in the study area throughout the recorded period. The formation of the studied mire deposits, as well as vegetation composition, suggest a change to wetter climatic conditions after 4,300 until 1,700 cal yrs bp. Fires were frequent, which may imply long-lasting anthropogenic activities in the area. Less vegetation cover with a marked decrease of the Moisture Index (MI) suggests drier conditions between 1,700 and 1,000 cal yrs bp. A high proportion of Cichorioideae and Amaranthaceae, as well as the reduction of trees, in particular Fagus and Quercus, at lower elevations, indicate human activities such as intense livestock grazing and deforestation. Soil erosion as the result of less vegetation due to dry conditions and/or human activities can be reconstructed from a marked increase of Glomus spores and high values of K and Ti. Since 1,000 cal yrs bp, the increasing MI, as well as the rise of Poaceae and Cyperaceae together with forest recovery, suggest a change to wetter conditions. The occurrence of still frequent Cichorioideae and Plantago lanceolata along with Sordaria reflect continued intense grazing of livestock by humans.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DE)
    Description: Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (1018)
    Keywords: ddc:561 ; Late Holocene ; Northern Iran ; Multi-proxy studies ; Hyrcanian mountain vegetation ; Climate change ; Human impact
    Language: English
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a central component of the atmospheric general circulation, but remarkably little is known about the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the convergence zone itself. This is true even for the structure of the low‐level convergence that gives the ITCZ its name. Following on from the major international field campaigns in the 1960s and 1970s, we performed extensive atmospheric profiling of the Atlantic ITCZ during a ship‐based measurement campaign aboard the research vessel 〈italic toggle="no"〉SONNE〈/italic〉 in summer 2021. Combining data collected during our north–south crossing of the ITCZ with reanalysis data shows the ITCZ to be a meridionally extended region of intense precipitation, with enhanced surface convergence at its edges rather than in the center. Based on the location of these edges, we construct a composite view of the structure of the Atlantic ITCZ. The ITCZ, far from being simply a region of enhanced deep convection, has a rich inner life, that is, a rich dynamical and thermodynamic structure that changes throughout the course of the year, and has a northern edge that differs systematically from the southern edge.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme CONSTRAIN http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.7051674
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; ITCZ ; Atlantic ; convergence ; observations ; reanalysis
    Language: English
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Mass transfer across the crust‐mantle boundary is a fundamental process governing planetary differentiation, the evolution of geochemical reservoirs and ore formation, controlled by physicochemical conditions at the crust‐mantle interface. In situ trace‐element, clinopyroxene 〈sup〉87〈/sup〉Sr/〈sup〉86〈/sup〉Sr and garnet Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉/ΣFe of kimberlite‐borne eclogite xenoliths from the deep (∼50 km) crust‐mantle transition below the ca. 1.2–1.0 Ga Namaqua‐Natal Fold Belt (southwestern Kaapvaal craton margin) were determined to elucidate their origin and evolution, and to constrain the oxygen fugacity of this pivotal but largely inaccessible environment. Based on a garnet source signature (NMORB‐normalized Er/Lu > 1) in pristine “gabbroic” eclogites with pronounced positive Eu, Sr, and Pb anomalies, the suite is interpreted as originating as plagioclase‐rich cumulates in oceanic crust from melts generated beneath mature oceanic lithosphere, subsequently subducted during the Namaqua‐Natal orogeny. Enriched eclogites have higher measured 〈sup〉87〈/sup〉Sr/〈sup〉86〈/sup〉Sr in clinopyroxene (up to 0.7054) than gabbroic ones (up to 0.7036), and show increasing bulk‐rock Li, Be and Pb abundances with increasing δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O in clinopyroxene, and muted Eu‐Sr‐Pb anomalies. These systematics suggest interaction with a siliceous fluid sourced from seawater‐altered oceanic sediment in a subduction mélange setting. Garnet Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉/ΣFe in deep crustal eclogites is extremely low (0.01–0.04, ±0.01 1〈italic〉σ〈/italic〉), as inherited from the plagioclase‐rich cumulate protolith, and owing to preferred partitioning into clinopyroxene at low temperatures (∼815–1000°C). Average maximum oxygen fugacities (∆logƒO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉(FMQ) = −3.1 ± 1.0 to −0.5 ± 0.7 relative to the Fayalite‐Magnetite‐Quartz buffer) are higher than in deeper‐seated on‐craton eclogite xenoliths, but mostly below sulfate stability, limiting the role of S〈sup〉6+〈/sup〉 species in oxidizing the mantle wedge.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Subduction zones represent the main interface between Earth's surface and its deep interior. Metamorphic reactions during subduction cause fluid or melt loss from seawater‐altered oceanic crust and sediment, which enriches the overlying mantle, and possibly oxidizes it. This would explain why the mantle sources of subduction zone magmas appear to be more oxidized than in other tectonic settings. However, the details of the mass transfer in this deep environment are difficult to constrain because it is inaccessible. Using rare deep‐seated magmas (kimberlites) as probes of a ca. 1.2 billion year old southern African subduction zone, we investigated eclogite fragments that originated as subducted oceanic crust and were much later plucked from the wallrocks by the ascending magma. These eclogites show elemental and isotopic signatures of interaction with subducted sediments, pointing to mingling processes similar to those observed in modern subduction zones. We also estimated their oxygen fugacity, a measure of the chemical potential of oxygen. We find that sulfur, which has been implicated in mantle oxidation, would have only been stable in these rocks in its reduced form, making even seawater‐altered eclogites sinks rather than sources of oxygen, with implications for the transfer of sulfur‐loving metals across the mantle‐to‐crust‐boundary.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Eclogite xenoliths sampling deep crust‐mantle transition below Namaqua‐Natal Fold Belt have plagioclase‐rich oceanic protoliths〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Enriched xenoliths show signatures of interaction with siliceous, subducted sediment‐derived fluids under shallow fore‐arc conditions〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Fe〈sup〉3+〈/sup〉‐based eclogite oxybarometry with oxygen fugacities below sulfate stability limits the role of S〈sup〉6+〈/sup〉 species in mantle wedge oxidation〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: https://doi.org/10.60520/IEDA/113077
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; kimberlite‐borne eclogite xenoliths ; crust‐mantle transition ; subduction zone processes ; redox budget ; metallogeny ; mantle wedge oxidation
    Language: English
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The interaction of the northern Nazca and southwestern Caribbean oceanic plates with northwestern South America (NWSA) and the collision of the Panama‐Choco arc (PCA) have significant implications on the evolution of the northern Andes. Based on a quantitative kinematic reconstruction of the Caribbean and Farallon/Farallon‐derived plates, we reconstructed the subducting geometries beneath NWSA and the PCA accretion to the continent. The persistent northeastward migration of the Caribbean plate relative to NWSA in Cenozoic time caused the continuous northward advance of the Farallon‐Caribbean plate boundary, which in turn resulted in its progressive concave trench bending against NWSA. The increasing complexity during the Paleogene included the onset of Caribbean shallow subduction, the PCA approaching the continent, and the forced shallow Farallon subduction that ended in the fragmentation of the Farallon Plate into the Nazca and Cocos plates and the Coiba and Malpelo microplates by the late Oligocene. The convergence tectonics after late Oligocene comprised the accretional process of the PCA to NWSA, which evolved from subduction erosion of the forearc to collisional tectonics by the middle Miocene, as well as changes of convergence angle and slab dip of the Farallon‐derived plates, and the attachment of the Coiba and Malpelo microplates to the Nazca plate around 9 Ma, resulting in a change of convergence directions. During the Pliocene, the Nazca slab broke at 5.5°N, shaping the modern configuration. Overall, the proposed reconstruction is supported by geophysical data and is well correlated with the magmatic and deformation history of the northern Andes.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The tectonic reconstruction in convergent triple junctions is a particularly challenging task as the relative motion between plates could define highly changing boundaries. Indeed, the resulting interaction between these convergent plates may induce important changes in the disposition of the trenches, and in turn in the three‐dimensional geometry of the subducting plates. Therefore, these highly dynamic conditions throughout geological time may be accommodated by different phases of plate fragmentation and reorganization. These factors could explain the complex spatial‐temporal distribution of subduction‐related magmatism and the different episodes of deformation in the upper plates. This reasoning is validated in the northwestern corner of South America (SA), where the continent has been converging against the Caribbean and Farallon‐derived oceanic plates since Cretaceous time. Additionally, we study the effects of the collision and accretion of the Panama‐Choco arc with SA. To accomplish that, we review the kinematic history of the Farallon/Nazca and Caribbean oceanic plates relative to stable Guiana Craton (SA) and integrate these results with the magmatic and deformation evolution of the northern Andes, which allow us to propose a model of the geometrical evolution of the subducting slabs. The obtained model is additionally constrained by seismological data and published velocity anomalies.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The tectonics of convergent triple junctions is complicated by the relative plate motion and interaction of the involved plates〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We propose a model for the kinematic and geometric evolution of the Farallon/Nazca and Caribbean plates throughout the Cenozoic〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The interaction between the Caribbean, Nazca and South American plates is closely related to the deformation history in the Northern Andes〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Potsdam‐Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010956
    Description: Ecopetrol
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7411340
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8129751
    Keywords: ddc:551.8 ; plate kinematics ; convergent margins ; slab geometry ; Northern Andean deformation episodes
    Language: English
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Deep‐ploughing far beyond the common depth of 30 cm was used more than 50 years ago in Northern Germany with the aim to break root‐restricting layers and thereby improve access to subsoil water and nutrient resources. We hypothesized that effects of this earlier intervention on soil properties and yields prevailed after 50 years. Hence, we sampled two sandy soils and one silty soil (Cambisols and a Luvisol) of which half of the field had been deep‐ploughed 50 years ago (soils then re‐classified as Treposols). The adjacent other half was not deep‐ploughed and thus served as the control. At all the three sites, both deep‐ploughed and control parts were then conventionally managed over the last 50 years. We assessed yields during the dry year 2019 and additionally in 2020, and rooting intensity at the year of sampling (2019), as well as changes in soil structure, carbon and nutrient stocks in that year. We found that deep‐ploughing improved yields in the dry spell of 2019 at the sandy sites, which was supported by a more general pattern of higher NDVI indices in deep‐ploughed parts for the period from 2016 to 2021 across varying weather conditions. Subsoil stocks of soil organic carbon and total plant‐available phosphorus were enhanced by 21%–199% in the different sites. Root biomass in the subsoil was reduced due to deep‐ploughing at the silty site and was increased or unaffected at the sandy sites. Overall, the effects of deep‐ploughing were site‐specific, with reduced bulk density in the buried topsoil stripes in the subsoil of the sandy sites, but with elevated subsoil density in the silty site. Hence, even 50 years after deep‐ploughing, changes in soil properties are still detectable, although effect size differed among sites.〈/p〉
    Description: BonaRes http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100022576
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; aggregates ; carbon sequestration ; deep‐ploughing ; macronutrients ; subsoil ; Treposol
    Language: English
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The interpretation of stalagmite δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O in terms of reflecting Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is still elusive. Here, we present high‐resolution stalagmite trace element ratios (X/Ca, X = Mg, Sr, Ba) records from southwest China covering 116.09 to 4.07 ka BP. δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O, δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C, and X/Ca values exhibit clear precessional cycles, with δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O values reflecting ASM circulation/intensity, while X/Ca ratios capture local precipitation or evapotranspiration variations. Our results show that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) is the main driver of ASM intensity and precipitation phase variation, but global ice volume modulates the response magnitude of summer precipitation to insolation. During the Last Glacial Maximum, high ice volumes caused significant monsoon precipitation to decrease. In contrast to modern observations of the tripolar distribution of precipitation in China, our record is consistent with paleo‐precipitation records in southern and northern China.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: While it is well known that global changes have led to variations in the intensity and spatial distribution of Asian monsoon precipitation, the mechanisms behind this are not well understood. Paleoclimate records are essential for revealing the drivers behind monsoon variation. However, speleothem records from the Asian monsoon region rarely provide direct information on the amount of rainfall. Here we report on multiple indicator data sets from a stalagmite in southwestern China. It could help explore the variation of monsoon precipitation over the last ∼100,000 years. We find that the increase/decrease of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation controls the increase/decrease of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, global ice volume moderates the magnitude of rainfall response to insolation, and precipitation decreases significantly during high ice volume periods. Based on the present paleo‐precipitation records evidence, the existence of the spatial pattern of increasing/decreasing rainfall in central China corresponding to decreasing/increasing rainfall in northern and southern China remains ambiguous on the orbital scales, although the feature has been captured by some of the model simulations.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Stalagmite trace elements are indicators of regional hydrological environmental variations in Southwestern China〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and global ice volume modulate the phase and amplitude variations of regional hydrological environment〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The meridional tripolar spatial pattern of precipitation in monsoon region in China on the orbital scale remains ambiguous〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: German Science Grant
    Description: Structure and Innovation Fund of the Region of Baden Württemberg
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: National Nature Science Foundation of China
    Description: Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects
    Description: Young and Middle‐age Academic and Technical Leader in Yunnan Province
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10072475
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; stalagmite ; trace elements ; Asian summer monsoon ; Northern Hemisphere summer insolation ; global ice volume ; regional hydrological environment
    Language: English
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  • 58
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  An interdisciplinary discourse on regulation. Biotic Self-Regulation: Model for Man-made Systems?
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: English
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: The potential for renewable energy to encourage sustainable development raises high hopes for the future among countries in the Global South. However, there has been less research on how energy transitions are perceived outside of the Global North and democratic contexts. This paper explores attitudes towards the energy transition in Jordan, where expert interviews reveal that a strong renewable energy industry has emerged from top-down government efforts to reduce energy dependency and costs. We perform an in-person household survey with 320 respondents in areas with different transition risks and benefits, and then test a series of hypotheses using regression analysis. In the four communities surveyed, income stress and climate concern influence attitudes, as well as perceptions of community benefits. National-level concerns also matter, including energy dependency and energy costs for all Jordanians. Our results highlight the importance of context: findings from the North are not universal and understanding transitions in the Global South requires studying them in their own right. Policy insights Jordanian policymakers should reverse their policy of blocking renewables to avoid public backlash. Jordanian policymakers and funders should promote projects in communities with high economic dependence on the fossil fuel industry to ensure local support in areas facing transition risks. Policymakers should highlight collective, not just individual benefits of transitions, as perceptions of community and country benefits increase support. Policymakers in highly energy-dependent countries like Jordan should frame renewables as an answer to local and national challenges such as high energy prices. Actors wishing to promote clean energy support in different contexts should investigate local dynamics to build communication strategies that frame transitions appropriately. Jordanian policymakers should reverse their policy of blocking renewables to avoid public backlash. Jordanian policymakers and funders should promote projects in communities with high economic dependence on the fossil fuel industry to ensure local support in areas facing transition risks. Policymakers should highlight collective, not just individual benefits of transitions, as perceptions of community and country benefits increase support. Policymakers in highly energy-dependent countries like Jordan should frame renewables as an answer to local and national challenges such as high energy prices. Actors wishing to promote clean energy support in different contexts should investigate local dynamics to build communication strategies that frame transitions appropriately.
    Language: English
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  • 60
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Ein interdisziplinärer Diskurs zum Thema regulation. Botische Selbst-Regulation: Model für anthropogene Systeme?
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 61
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS)
    In:  RIFS Policy Brief
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: Technologies for Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) only represent climate solutions in as much as they go hand in hand with deep emissions reductions. The (future) availability of CCUS and CDR technologies does not mean we can delay or avoid phasing out fossil fuels if we are to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. Likewise, the expansion of renewable energy technologies will be nowhere near adequate for meeting agreed-upon climate targets unless fossil fuels are simultaneously ramped down. Up until now, renewables have been largely in addition to, rather than substituting for fossil fuels. Achieving our climate and broader sustainable development goals will require transformations that go beyond energy systems and reevaluate the structures and institutions behind our patterns of consumption, mobility, and food production, among others.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.
    Language: English
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.
    Language: English
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.
    Language: English
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Media inform the public, thereby influencing societal debates and political decisions. Despite climate change’s importance, drivers of media attention to climate change remain differently understood. Here we assess how different sociopolitical and extreme weather events affect climate change media coverage, both immediately and in the weeks following the event. To this end, we construct a data set of over 90,000 climate change articles published in nine major German newspapers over the past three decades and apply fixed effects panel regressions to control for confounders. We find that United Nations Climate Change Conferences affect coverage most strongly and most persistently. Climate protests incite climate coverage that extends well beyond the reporting on the event itself, whereas many articles on weather extremes do not mention climate change. The influence of all events has risen over time, increasing the media prominence of climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive-negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net-cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive-negative tipping feedback loop in a process-based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate-induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.
    Language: English
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The recurrence plot and the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are well-established methods for the analysis of data from complex systems. They provide important insights into the nature of the dynamics, periodicity, regime changes, and many more. These methods are used in different fields of research, such as finance, engineering, life, and earth science. To use them, the data have usually to be uniformly sampled, posing difficulties in investigations that provide non-uniformly sampled data, as typical in medical data (e.g., heart-beat based measurements), paleoclimate archives (such as sediment cores or stalagmites), or astrophysics (supernova or pulsar observations). One frequently used solution is interpolation to generate uniform time series. However, this preprocessing step can introduce bias to the RQA measures, particularly those that rely on the diagonal or vertical line structure in the recurrence plot. Using prototypical model systems, we systematically analyze differences in the RQA measure average diagonal line length for data with different sampling and interpolation. For real data, we show that the course of this measure strongly depends on the choice of the sampling rate for interpolation. Furthermore, we suggest a correction scheme, which is capable of correcting the bias introduced by the prepossessing step if the interpolation ratio is an integer.
    Language: English
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: We present a modular framework for generating synthetic power grids that consider the heterogeneity of real power grid dynamics but remain simple and tractable. This enables the generation of large sets of synthetic grids for a wide range of applications. For the first time, our synthetic model also includes the major drivers of fluctuations on short-time scales and a set of validators that ensure the resulting system dynamics are plausible. The synthetic grids generated are robust and show good synchronization under all evaluated scenarios, as should be expected for realistic power grids. A software package that includes an efficient Julia implementation of the framework is released as a companion to the paper.
    Language: English
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: To mitigate climate change, the share of renewable energies in power production needs to be increased. Renewables introduce new challenges to power grids regarding the dynamic stability due to decentralization, reduced inertia, and volatility in production. Since dynamic stability simulations are intractable and exceedingly expensive for large grids, graph neural networks (GNNs) are a promising method to reduce the computational effort of analyzing the dynamic stability of power grids. As a testbed for GNN models, we generate new, large datasets of dynamic stability of synthetic power grids and provide them as an open-source resource to the research community. We find that GNNs are surprisingly effective at predicting the highly non-linear targets from topological information only. For the first time, performance that is suitable for practical use cases is achieved. Furthermore, we demonstrate the ability of these models to accurately identify particular vulnerable nodes in power grids, so-called troublemakers. Last, we find that GNNs trained on small grids generate accurate predictions on a large synthetic model of the Texan power grid, which illustrates the potential for real-world applications.
    Language: English
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  • 70
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    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Language: English
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The global steel sector is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for significant changes in production practices and the adoption of low-carbon breakthrough technologies to achieve net-zero emissions. This study was conducted to explore positive tipping points at the company level, taking into account socio-political, economic and industry pressures that initiate the tipping process. The study operationalizes tipping points using the Triple Embededdness Framework, which incorporates indicators from the socio-political and economic environment, as well as the industry regime of companies. An analysis is performed of secondary data from four steel companies: BlueScope (Australia), POSCO (South Korea), voestalpine (Austria), and U.S. Steel (USA). The findings indicate that voestalpine is on the verge of reaching a positive tipping point, and POSCO is also on a promising track. In contrast, both BlueScope and U.S. Steel are lagging behind. In the tipping process, national policies play a critical role in expediting the transition to low-carbon steel production for frontrunners, while global climate policy has a greater leverage by influencing producers who operate in a less stringent national policy context. Additionally, the customer demand for low-carbon steel serves as a driving force for innovation and can incentivize steelmakers to produce low-carbon products.
    Language: English
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: Increasing interconnectedness, along with the effects of climate change and other global risk drivers, has led to mounting systemic risks in the complex systems that characterize our world. Systemic risks, with their cascading impacts and long-term sustainability concerns, necessitate transformative approaches to manage their effects across system scales and dimensions. To date, however, an “operationalization gap” impedes translating between propositions for transformative change and policy options for addressing systemic risk. Here, we propose combining systemic risk analyses with local approaches, prominently including knowledge co-production, to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of complex systems. This combined approach can support stakeholders in designing transformative risk management and adaptation interventions that balance individual and higher-order interactions, incorporate diverse viewpoints, and thus manage systemic risks and leverage transformation potential more effectively. Furthermore, we suggest that a risk-layering approach can help differentiate, prioritize, and orchestrate these options for incremental and transformative changes.
    Language: English
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Some forty years ago, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS) created an unusual regime for states to collectively manage common natural resources on the international seabed beyond national jurisdiction (known as the Area) through the International Seabed Authority (ISA). In the intervening years, scientists have increasingly been warning about the serious environmental risks of mining seabed minerals. At this pivotal point in time, when states are negotiating whether or not to allow seabed mining, this essay explores the risk of undermining by mining, that is, contravening international marine environmental law and the obligations and responsibilities of states thereunder by allowing commercial mining activities to commence. We argue that allowing seabed mining in the Area at this juncture, when so much about the deep ocean remains unknown, would risk frustrating a host of measures, achievements, and progress to enhance marine environmental protection, particularly in areas beyond national jurisdiction. We begin with an overview of the ISA and its work to date, before discussing potential interactions between seabed mining and marine environmental law and policies, with a particular focus on the new ocean biodiversity agreement. We conclude by urging states to take cognizance of their overarching duty to protect and preserve the marine environment and ensure that all decisions taken with respect to seabed mining are consistent with their obligations and responsibilities under international law.
    Language: English
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Real-world laboratories have become a recognised research format for addressing sustainability challenges. In these transdisciplinary settings, actors from civil society, local government, and academia work together using a transdisciplinary research approach to jointly experiment and learn about sustainability transformations. While these labs are considered to have potential, their impact has not yet been fully measured. Therefore, in our paper we explore the case of the Zukunftsstadt Lüneburg 2030+ process to uncover the impacts that this long-term effort has generated over the past eight years. By examining the process and its design features from three analytical perspectives, we identify emergent impacts in three dimensions: education, governance, and the lab as an actor for sustainability. Based on our case study, we suggest that real-world labs contribute to sustainability on a local level, beyond the intentional experiments, through impacts that emerge over the course of the joint operation of the lab.
    Language: English
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Numerous scientific reports have evidenced the transformation of the earth system due to human activities. These changes – captured under the term ‘Anthropocene’ – require a new perspective on global law and policy. The concept of ‘earth system law’ situates law in an earth system context and offers a new perspective to interrogate the role of law in governing planetary challenges such as climate change. The discourse on earth system law has not yet fully recognised courts as actors that could shape climate governance, while climate litigation discourse has insufficiently considered aspects of earth system law. We posit that courts play an increasingly influential climate governance role and that they need to be recognised as Anthropocene institutions within the earth system law paradigm. Drawing on a set of prominent climate cases, we discuss five inter-related domains that are relevant for earth system law and where the potential influence of courts can be discerned: establishing accountability, redefining power relations, remedying vulnerabilities and injustices, increasing the reach and impact of international climate law and applying climate science to adjudicate legal disputes. We suggest that their innovative work in these domains could provide a basis for positioning courts as planetary climate governance actors.
    Language: English
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Germany, the European Union member state with the largest fiscal space and its leading manufacturer of industrial goods, is pursuing an ambitious hydrogen strategy aiming at establishing itself as a major technology provider and importer of green hydrogen. The success of its hydrogen strategy represents not only a key element in realizing the European vision of climate neutrality but also a central driver of an emerging global hydrogen economy. This article provides a detailed review of German policy, highlighting its prominent international dimension and its implications for the development of a global renewable hydrogen economy. It provides an overview of the strategy's central goals and how these have evolved since the launch of the strategy in 2020. Next, it moves on to provide an overview of the strategy's main areas of intervention and highlights corresponding policy instruments. For this, we draw on a comprehensive assessment of hydrogen policy instruments, which have been systematically analyzed and coded. This was complemented by a detailed analysis of policy documents and information gathered in six interviews with government officials and staff of key implementing agencies. The article places particular emphasis on the strategy's international dimension. While less significant in financial terms than domestic hydrogen-related spending, it represents a defining feature of the German hydrogen strategy, setting it apart from strategies in other major economies. The article closes with a reflection on the key features of the strategy compared to other important countries, identifies gaps of the strategy and discusses important avenues for future research.
    Language: English
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  • 77
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    In:  Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: In two recent South African cases, Indigenous communities successfully challenged proposed fossil fuel exploration activities by the Shell petroleum company off South Africa's pristine West Coast. In contrast to earlier climate litigation cases in South Africa, the litigants relied specifically on their Indigenous rights and knowledge. In this case note, we highlight the ways in which the two courts engaged with the communities' cultural beliefs and practices as well as their knowledge related to sustainability and how this relates to protecting their livelihoods, cultural practices and identities that are threatened by the proposed activities. We highlight the important role played by Indigenous communities in the climate movement and argue that, in the future, Indigenous and related considerations could provide a strong basis for climate litigation in South Africa and potentially contribute to efforts to protect Indigenous communities against the activities of carbon majors.
    Language: English
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: This article presents an enhanced emission module for the PALM model system, which collects discrete emission sources from different emission sectors and assigns them dynamically to the prognostic equations for specific pollutant species as volumetric source terms. Bidirectional lookup between each source location and cell index are maintained through using a hash key approach, while allowing all emission source modules to be conceived, developed and operated in a homogeneous and mutually independent manner. An additional generic emission mode has also been implemented to allow the use of external emission data in simulation runs. Results from benchmark runs indicate a high level of performance and scalability. Subsequently, a module for modelling parametrized emissions from domestic heating is implemented under this framework, using the approach of building energy usage and temperature deficit as a generalized form of heating degree days. An model run has been executed under idealized conditions by considering solely dispersion of PM10 from domestic heating sources. The results demonstrate a strong overall dependence on the strength and clustering of individual sources, diurnal variation in domestic heat usage, as well as the temperature deficit between the ambient and the user-defined target temperature. Vertical transport contributes additionally to a rapid attenuation of daytime PM10. Although urban topology plays a minor role on the pollutant concentrations at ground level, it has a relevant contribution to the vertical pollutant distribution.
    Language: English
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Key message: A decolonial approach is needed to fulfil IASC’s commitment to recognizing that Traditional Knowledge, Indigenous Knowledge and academic scientific knowledge are co-equal and complementary knowledge systems that all can and should inform its work (website ICARP IV, retrieved October 2023). This document summarizes key recommendations for actions regarding five themes: 1. Indigenous Peoples’ right to self-determination as a prerequisite for high-quality Arctic research 2. Ethics, methods and methodology as key for decolonial research 3. Indigenous-led research in design and practice 4. Indigenous Peoples’ co-equal participation in Arctic research funding structures and decision-making for securing decolonial Arctic research in practice 5. Funding for Co-Creative and Indigenous-Led Arctic Research
    Language: English
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
    Language: English
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Are there group decision methods which (i) give everyone, including minorities, an equal share of effective decision power even when voters act strategically, (ii) promote consensus and equality, rather than polarization and inequality, and (iii) do not favour the status quo or rely too much on chance? We describe two non-deterministic group decision methods that meet these criteria, one based on automatic bargaining over lotteries, the other on conditional commitments to approve compromise options. Using theoretical analysis, agent-based simulations and a behavioral experiment, we show that these methods prevent majorities from consistently suppressing minorities, which can happen in deterministic methods, and keeps proponents of the status quo from blocking decisions, as in other consensus-based approaches. Our simulations show that these methods achieve aggregate welfare comparable to common voting methods, while employing chance judiciously, and that the welfare costs of fairness and consensus are small compared to the inequality costs of majoritarianism. In an incentivized experiment with naive participants, we find that a sizable fraction of participants prefers to use a non-deterministic voting method over Plurality Voting to allocate monetary resources. However, this depends critically on their position within the group. Those in the majority show a strong preference for majoritarian voting methods.
    Language: English
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉NASA's Juno mission delivered gravity data of exceptional quality. They indicate that the zonal winds, which rule the dynamics of Jupiter's cloud deck, must slow down significantly beyond a depth of about 3,000 km. Since the underlying inversion is highly non‐unique additional constraints on the flow properties at depth are required. These could potentially be provided by the magnetic field and its Secular Variation (SV) over time. However, the role of these zonal winds in Jupiter's magnetic field dynamics is little understood. Here we use numerical simulations to explore the impact of the zonal winds on the dynamo field produced at depth. We find that the main effect is an attenuation of the non‐axisymmetric field, which can be quantified by a modified magnetic Reynolds number Rm that combines flow amplitude and electrical conductivity profile. Values below Rm = 3 are required to retain a pronounced non‐axisymmetric feature like the Great Blue Spot (GBS), which seems characteristic for Jupiter's magnetic field. This allows for winds reaching as deep as 3,400 km. A SV pattern similar to the observation can only be found in some of our models. Its amplitude reflects the degree of cancellation between advection and diffusion rather than the zonal wind velocity at any depth. It is therefore not straightforward to make inferences on the deep structure of cloud‐level winds based on Jupiter's SV.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The dynamics in Jupiter's cloud layer is dominated by eastward and westward directed wind jets that circumvent the planet and reach velocities of up to 150 m per second. For the first time, NASA's Juno mission could measure the tiny gravity changes caused by these winds. The data show that the winds reach down to a depth of about 3,000 km, roughly 4% of Jupiter's radius. However, the interpretation is difficult and several alternative wind profiles have been suggested. In this paper we use numerical simulations to explore how these winds would affect Jupiter's magnetic field, which has also been measured with high precision by Juno. The field shows a strong inward‐directed local patch just south of the equator, called the GBS. The impact of the winds on the magnetic field rapidly increases with depth because of the increase in the electrical conductivity. Our simulations show that winds reaching deeper than about 3,400 km would practically wipe out the GBS. This confirms that they have to remain shallower. Juno also observed an east‐ward drift of the GBS. While some of our simulations also show an east‐ward drift it is typically much too slow.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We study the magnetic field variations caused by Jupiter's deep‐reaching surface winds for various flow and electrical conductivity models〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Zonal winds reaching deeper than 3,400 km would yield a very axisymmetric surface field and are thus unrealistic〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉It seems questionable that Jupiter's secular variation carries any useful information on the zonal winds〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17617/3.CNVRWD
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Jupiter ; magnetic field ; atmospheric dynamics ; zonal winds
    Language: English
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The microphysical structure of the lunar regolith provides information on the geologic history of the Moon. We used remote sensing measurements of thermal emission and a thermophysical model to determine the microphysical properties of the lunar regolith. We expand upon previous investigations by developing a microphysical thermal model, which more directly simulates regolith properties, such as grain size and volume filling factor. The modeled temperatures are matched with surface temperatures measured by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment on board the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. The maria and highlands are investigated separately and characterized in the model by a difference in albedo and grain density. We find similar regolith temperatures for both terrains, which can be well described by similar volume filling factor profiles and mean grain sizes obtained from returned Apollo samples. We also investigate a significantly lower thermal conductivity for highlands, which formally also gives a very good solution, but in a parameter range that is well outside the Apollo data. We then study the latitudinal dependence of regolith properties up to ±80° latitude. When assuming constant regolith properties, we find that a variation of the solar incidence‐dependent albedo can reduce the initially observed latitudinal gradient between model and Diviner measurements significantly. A better match between measurements and model can be achieved by a variation in intrinsic regolith properties with a decrease in bulk density with increasing latitude. We find that a variation in grain size alone cannot explain the Diviner measurements at higher latitudes.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The Moon is covered by a layer of fine grained material called regolith. To extract information about the regolith, such as grain size or stratification, we used data from the Diviner instrument on board the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Diviner measures the surface temperature of the regolith for each location on the Moon and all times during day and night. To derive regolith properties, we developed a model and varied its model parameters until the simulated surface temperatures matched the measured ones. We applied the model up to a latitude of 80° and find as the best solution a decrease in regolith packing density with increasing latitude. We also find that a variation of regolith grain size alone cannot explain the measurements. These predictions are valuable for planning future missions targeting higher latitudes and can be compared with future in situ measurements and returned samples. However, the fraction of sunlight that actually heats the regolith is quite unknown, especially at high latitudes. A variation of this fraction can explain the measured surface temperatures reasonably well even without a variation of the regolith properties with latitude.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We developed a microphysical thermal model accounting for regolith grain size and volume filling factor〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The best match between model and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter/Diviner data was achieved with a decrease in bulk density between 30° and 80° latitude〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We also found a reasonable agreement between observed and modeled surface temperatures when varying the solar incidence dependent albedo〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: LRO project
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/WJ0S-W188
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8433837
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10781188
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Moon ; regolith ; Diviner ; thermal modeling ; lunar
    Language: English
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Ries impact structure (Germany) contains well‐preserved ejecta deposits consisting of melt‐free lithic breccia (Bunte Breccia) overlain by suevite. To test their emplacement conditions, we investigated the magnetic properties and microstructures of 26 polymict breccia clasts and a stratigraphic profile from the clasts into the suevite at the Aumühle quarry. Remanent magnetization directions of the Bunte Breccia clasts fall into two groups: those whose directions mostly lie parallel to the reversed field during impact carried mostly by magnetite, and those whose directions vary widely among each clast carried by titanohematite. Basement clasts containing titanohematite acquired a chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) during the ejection process and then rotated during turbulent deposition. Clasts of sedimentary rocks grew magnetite after turbulent deposition, with CRM directions lying parallel to the paleofield. Suevite holds a thermal remanent magnetization carried by magnetite, except for ∼12 cm from the contact with the Bunte Breccia, where hematite concentrations increase due to hydrothermal alteration. These observations lead us to propose a three‐stage model of (a) turbulent deposition of the melt‐free breccia with clast rotation 〈580°C, (b) deposition of the overlying suevite, which acted as a semi‐permeable barrier that confined hot (〈300°C) oxidizing fluids to the permeable breccia zone, and (c) prolonged hydrothermal activity producing further alteration which ended before the next geomagnetic reversal. Basement outcrops have significantly different magnetic properties than the Bunte Breccia basement clasts with similar lithology. Two basement blocks situated near the inner ring may have been thermally overprinted up to 550°C.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The 26‐km‐diameter, ∼15‐million‐year‐old Ries meteorite impact structure in southern Germany is characterized by well‐preserved ejecta deposits expelled from the crater within seconds after the impact. These deposits consist of two main layers: melt‐free, lithic breccia (Bunte Breccia), overlain by melt‐bearing breccia (suevite). To understand the formation conditions of the ejecta deposits, we performed paleomagnetic and rock magnetic measurements and microstructural experiments on clasts within Bunte Breccia and on the overlying suevite at the Aumühle quarry. We found that clasts derived from crystalline basement materials experienced high pressures during the impact. These clasts had randomly oriented magnetization directions carried by titanohematite. In contrast, clasts derived from sedimentary rocks experienced only low pressures and had coherent magnetization directions oriented parallel to the reversed field during the impact that are carried by magnetite. Our findings can be interpreted by a three‐stage model that explains the thermal and structural formation of impact ejecta at the Ries impact structure.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Randomly oriented paleomagnetic directions in basement clasts in ejecta deposits suggest turbulent emplacement〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Bunte Breccia was chemically altered and locally heated by the overlying suevite, resulting in hydrothermal activity up to 300°C〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Basement rocks near the inner ring may have experienced temperatures up to 550°C from cratering〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://earthref.org/MagIC/19984
    Keywords: ddc:622.153 ; Paleomagnetism ; remanent magnetization ; chemical remanence ; impact crater ; impact ejecta ; hydrothermal activity
    Language: English
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Hydrochemical data of karst springs provide valuable insights into the internal hydrodynamical functioning of karst systems and support model structure identification. However, the collection of high‐frequency time series of major solute species is limited by analysis costs. In this study, we develop a method to retrieve the individual solute concentration time series and their uncertainty at high temporal resolution for karst springs by using continuous observations of electrical conductivity (EC) and low‐frequency ionic measurements. Due to the large ion content and non‐negligible concentrations of aqueous complexes in karst systems, the concentration of each solute species occurring as free ion and as part of aqueous complexes are computed separately. The concentration of species occurring as free ions are computed considering their contributions to the total EC, whereas the concentration of the species as part of complexes are obtained from speciation calculations. The pivotal role of the complexation processes for the reconstruction of solute concentration time series starting from the EC signal is investigated in two karstic catchments with different geologies and temporal resolution of the available hydrochemical datasets, that is the Kerschbaum dolostone system in Austria and the Baget limestone system in France. The results show that complexation processes are significant and should be considered for the estimation of the total solute concentration in case of SO〈sub〉4〈/sub〉, Ca, Mg and HCO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉. The EC signal of a karst spring can be used to interpolate and quantify the dynamics of those solutes characterized by large contribution (approximately >6%) to the total EC and low relative variability, that is HCO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉, Ca and Mg. Moreover, the presented method can be used to estimate concentrations of solutes when applied to karst systems with stationary and hydrogeochemical homogeneous contributing area. On the contrary, the method is affected by large uncertainty in case of dynamic systems characterized by varying contributions of water from different geological areas. This study aims to contribute to the problem of hydrogeochemical data availability and to support future works on karst systems conceptualization.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001703
    Description: European Regional Development Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
    Description: http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/fb92daaffced415fb7a991747e73adfa
    Keywords: ddc:551.9 ; electrical conductivity decomposition ; high‐resolution hydrochemical data ; hydrochemical modelling ; karst
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Bakreswar geothermal province represents a medium enthalpy geothermal system with its Bakreswar and Tantloie hot springs. It lies within the Chotanagpur Granite Gneissic Complex in the eastern part of the Indian Peninsula. The province has a high heat flow and a high geothermal gradient of 90°C/km. Magnetotelluric data from 95 sites in a frequency range of 10 kHz–10 Hz were acquired over the Bakreswar geothermal province to obtain an electrical conductivity model and map the geothermal reservoir with its fluid pathways and related geological structures. Subsurface conductivity models obtained from three‐dimensional inversions of the Magnetotelluric data exhibit several prominent anomalies, which are supplemented by gravity results. The conductivity model maps three features which act as a conduit (a) a northwest–southeast trending feature, (b) an east–west trending feature to the south of the northwest–southeast trending feature (which lies 1 km north of the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation fault marked by previous studies) and (c) shallow conducting features close to Bakreswar hot spring. The northwest–southeast trending feature coincides with the boundary of the high‐density intrusive block. This northwest–southeast trending feature provides the pathway for the meteoric water to reach a maximum depth of 2.7 km, where it gets heated by interacting with deep‐seated structures and then it rises towards the surface. The radiogenic process occurring within the granites of Chotanagpur Granite Gneissic Complex provides the heat responsible for heating the meteoric water. The northwest–southeast and east–west trending features are responsible for the transport of meteoric water to deeper depths and then towards the shallow regions of the Earth. The near surface features close to the Bakreswar hot spring are responsible for carrying the water further towards the hot spring. The resistivity of these structures plotted as a function of salinity and temperatures for saline crustal fluids suggests the involvement of meteoric water. Further, applying Archie's law to this resistivity suggests that the conduit path has a porosity greater than 10%. This study successfully maps the anomalous structures which might foster the migration of geothermal fluid in Bakreswar geothermal province.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD)
    Keywords: ddc:622.15 ; electromagnetics ; geothermal ; gravity ; inversion ; magnetotellurics ; modelling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Despite extensive investigation, the tectono‐thermal evolution of the Archean crust in the Lewisian Gneiss Complex in NW Scotland (LGC) is debated. Most U–Pb zircon geochronological and metamorphic studies have focused on rocks from the central region of the mainland LGC, where granulite facies assemblages associated with the oldest (Badcallian) tectono‐metamorphic event at c. 2.75 Ga are overprinted by younger amphibolite facies assemblages related to the Inverian (c. 2.5 Ga) and subsequent Laxfordian (c. 1.9–1.65 Ga) tectono‐thermal events. In the southern and northern regions of the mainland LGC, deformation and metamorphism associated with the Laxfordian event are pervasive, although the timing and conditions are poorly constrained. Here, we present new field, petrographic and structural data, U–Pb zircon and titanite geochronology and phase equilibrium modelling of amphibolite samples from the northern and southern regions. Our field observations show that in both regions, pre‐Laxfordian structures are significantly reworked by steep NW‐striking fabrics that are themselves pervasively overprinted by co‐axial deformation and amphibolite facies metamorphism related to the Laxfordian event. In situ U–Pb titanite geochronology yields Laxfordian ages of 1853 ± 20 Ma in the southern region (P = 6–8 kbar and T = 640–690°C) and 1750 ± 20 Ma and 1776 ± 10 Ma in the northern region (P = 6–7.5 kbar and T = 740–760°C). While U–Pb dating of zircon rims from felsic gneisses in the central region shows a dominant Inverian metamorphic overprint at c. 2500 Ma, zircon rims in felsic gneisses from the northern and southern regions commonly yield Laxfordian dates as young as c. 1800 Ma. Combined, the results support the idea that, during the Palaeoproterozoic, the central region of the LGC acted as low‐strain domain, in which intense deformation and metamorphism were restricted to crustal‐scale shear zones. By contrast, in the southern and northern regions, early (c. 1.85 Ga) and late (c. 1.75 Ga) Laxfordian deformation and fluid‐mediated metamorphism were much more pervasive and at higher P–T conditions than previously proposed. The diachronous Laxfordian evolution of the southern and northern regions indicate that they reflect early and late snapshots of collisional to transpressional tectonics in the mainland LGC. The long‐lasting Laxfordian evolution documents the collision of the Rae and North Atlantic cratons during the Palaeoproterozoic amalgamation of the supercontinent Nuna, with implications for the palaeogeographic configuration of NW Scotland during Palaeoproterozoic Nuna.〈/p〉
    Description: Australian Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; in situ titanite petrochronology ; Laxfordian metamorphism ; North Atlantic Craton ; strain partitioning ; supercontinent assembly
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The 6 February 2023, 〈italic〉M〈/italic〉〈sub〉〈italic〉w〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake in the Turkey‐Syria border region raises the question of whether such a large earthquake could have been foreseen, as well as what is the maximum possible magnitude (〈italic〉M〈/italic〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉) of earthquakes on the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system and on continental transform faults in general. To answer such questions, knowledge of past earthquakes and of their causative faults is necessary. Here, we integrate data from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the likely source faults of fourteen 〈italic〉M〈/italic〉〈sub〉〈italic〉w〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 ≥ 7 earthquakes between 1000 CE and the present in the region. We find that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake could have been foreseen in terms of location (the EAF) and timing (an earthquake along this fault was if anything overdue), but not magnitude. We hypothesize that the maximum earthquake magnitude for the EAF is in fact 8.2, that is, a single end‐to‐end rupture of the entire fault, and that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake did not reach 〈italic〉M〈/italic〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 by a fortuitous combination of circumstances. We conclude that such unusually large events are hard to model in terms of recurrence intervals, and that seismic hazard assessment along continental transforms cannot be done on individual fault systems but must include neighboring systems as well, because they are not kinematically independent at any time scale.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: On 6 February 2023, there was a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in the Turkey‐Syria border region. It surprised many people, including many Earth scientists, because of where it happened (on the East Anatolian fault [EAF]) and because of how large it was. People wondered whether it could have been foreseen, and how large an earthquake on this fault can really be. To figure this out, we looked at the history of earthquakes in the region in the last 1,000 years. We used information from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the faults that caused 14 earthquakes with magnitude 7 or greater in this region. We found that the location (EAF) and timing (it was due any time) of the 2023 earthquake were foreseeable, but not the magnitude. In fact, we believe that the maximum magnitude for the EAF is 8.2, and that the 2023 earthquake was below this maximum just by accident. It is hard to say how often such large events can happen, because many different things need to align. We also believe that it is necessary to look at neighboring fault systems when estimating seismic hazards, because they interact.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We identified the source faults of 14 large earthquakes along the East Anatolian and northern Dead Sea fault systems〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Maximum magnitude for the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) zone is approximately 8.2〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Continental transforms may be described as having a collective memory〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5270/ESA-c5d3d65
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000658
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4489-2022
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25577/EWT8-KY06
    Description: https://dx.doi.org/10.5285/df93e92a3adc46b9a5c4bd3a547cd242
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5066/P985I7U2
    Description: https://app.box.com/v/textureshading
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; East Anatolian fault ; Dead Sea fault ; seismic gap ; seismic hazards ; source fault ; maximum earthquake magnitude
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Teleseismic back‐projection imaging has emerged as a powerful tool for understanding the rupture propagation of large earthquakes. However, its application often suffers from artifacts related to the receiver array geometry. We developed a teleseismic back‐projection technique that can accommodate data from multiple arrays. Combined processing of P and pP waveforms may further improve the resolution. The method is suitable for defining arrays ad‐hoc to achieve a good azimuthal distribution for most earthquakes. We present a catalog of short‐period rupture histories (0.5–2.0 Hz) for all earthquakes from 2010 to 2022 with 〈italic〉M〈/italic〉〈sub〉〈italic〉W〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 ≥ 7.5 and depth less than 200 km (56 events). The method provides automatic estimates of rupture length, directivity, speed, and aspect ratio, a proxy for rupture complexity. We obtained short‐period rupture length scaling relations that are in good agreement with previously published relations based on estimates of total slip. Rupture speeds were consistently in the sub‐Rayleigh regime for thrust and normal earthquakes, whereas a tenth of strike‐slip events propagated at supershear speeds. Many rupture histories exhibited complex behaviors, for example, rupture on conjugate faults, bilateral propagation, and dynamic triggering by a P wave. For megathrust earthquakes, ruptures encircling asperities were frequently observed, with downdip, updip, and balanced patterns. Although there is a preference for short‐period emissions to emanate from central and downdip parts of the megathrust, emissions updip of the main asperity are more frequent than suggested by earlier results.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Back‐projection is an earthquake imaging method based on seismic waveforms recorded remotely at a group of seismometers (seismic array). Here, we develop a new approach to combine backprojections from multiple arrays and seismic waveforms and use it to derive a catalog of large earthquake rupture histories from 2010 to 2022, providing a map view of the high‐frequency radiation emitted along the fault. The method automatically estimates the earthquake rupture length, speed, directivity, and aspect ratio. Based on these estimates, we obtained scaling relations between the earthquake magnitude and rupture length that agree with classical relationships. We identified strike‐slip earthquakes propagating at supershear, that is, faster than the shear wave speed, the usual limit for self‐sustaining rupture propagation. We observed complex rupture behaviors, for example, multiple faults activated, bilateral ruptures, and triggering of the main phase of a rupture by a primary (P) wave from the earliest part of the rupture. For subduction earthquakes, high‐frequency emissions were often observed, forming a ring around the fault interface patches (asperities) where the main slip occurs. There was a preference for high‐frequency radiation to emanate from central and deeper parts of the subducting plate interface, but shallower emissions were more frequent than expected from previous literature.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We provide a complete catalog of high‐frequency rupture histories for 〈italic〉M〈/italic〉 ≥ 7.5 events 2010–2022〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We develop a semi‐automatic method for estimating rupture length, speed, directivity, and aspect ratio〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Both encircling ruptures and emissions updip of slip asperities common in megathrust earthquakes〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: National Agency for Research and Development (ANID)
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.4.2024.001
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; back‐projection ; megathrust earthquakes ; complex ruptures ; supershear ruptures ; scaling relations ; earthquake rupture catalog
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Craters on the lunar surface can provide valuable information about the timing and sequence of surface‐forming processes on the Moon. A commonly used method for age determination is the analysis of the crater size‐frequency distribution (CSFD) to which a production function (PF) is fitted that represents the size‐frequency distribution of the impactors. However, the commonly used PF of Neukum (1983) is valid for crater diameters between 10 m and 300 km. Neukum et al. (2001, 〈ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1035-0_3"〉https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1035-0_3〈/ext-link〉) revised the PF for crater diameters of 100 m–200 km. However, it is suggested to also be valid for the diameter range of 10 m–300 km as well. To assess whether we can extend a PF to craters ≤10 m in diameter, we investigated the slopes of the CSFDs of small craters formed on ejecta of young Copernican‐aged craters Giordano Bruno, Moore F, North Ray, and South Ray. A PF for smaller diameters would allow dating of young geological units, which are typically small, and would reduce the statistical error in age determinations, since smaller craters are more abundant. However, small craters are strongly influenced by geological factors, such as target properties, crater degradation, and secondary craters. For craters between 10 and 20 m we obtain a steeper CSFD slope than Neukum's proposed −3 slope (cumulative), whereas for craters ≤10 m the slope is about −3. We conclude that the PF of Neukum (1983) provides a reasonable CSFD slope for smaller craters, although it was not developed for this crater diameter range.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Since the formation of the Moon, impactors have randomly hit the lunar surface. Older areas have larger and more abundant craters compared to younger areas. This relationship allows the determination of relative ages for different surfaces. A mathematical function can be fitted to the number and size of craters. This function has a specific shape and can be used to date a surface. Frequently used functions are valid between crater diameters of 10 m and 300 km. Dating young geological units is only possible if the observed craters are 〈bold〉≥〈/bold〉10 m in diameter. Therefore, an extension of these functions to crater diameters ≤10 m would be beneficial. However, small craters are strongly influenced by geological factors, such as target properties, crater degradation, and secondary craters. We consider these influences in our investigation. To compare our results with previous findings, we look more closely at the slope of the function that results from the number and size of the craters. Generally, we find that one function fits well for craters ≤10 m, even though it was not designed for this diameter range. This allows a more robust age determination because small craters are more abundant, reducing the statistical error.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We studied small craters on young ejecta blankets to evaluate if the lunar production function (PF) is viable for craters ≤10 m〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The crater size‐frequency distributions (CSFDs) indicate that the PF can indeed be extended to crater diameters ≤10 m〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Our observed slopes of CSFDs at the studied Copernican‐aged craters are consistent with previous findings〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002946
    Description: https://doi.org/10.35003/V9AFAZ
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520341
    Description: https://ode.rsl.wustl.edu/moon/
    Description: https://wms.lroc.asu.edu/lroc/rdr_product_select
    Description: https://astrogeology.usgs.gov/search/map/Moon/Clementine/UVVIS/Lunar_Clementine_UVVIS_Warp_ClrRatio_Global_200m
    Description: https://aaronclauset.github.io/powerlaws/
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; crater size‐frequency distribution ; production function ; slope ; small craters ; Moon
    Language: English
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉To understand the global response of thermospheric‐ionospheric (TI) parameters to variations in solar irradiance measurements from the Global‐Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) ultraviolet imaging spectrograph, solar radio flux F10.7, predictions from the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model, and International Global Navigation Satellite System Service total electron content maps (TEC) have been used. Various parameters such as GOLD 〈italic〉O〈/italic〉/〈italic〉N〈/italic〉〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, 〈italic〉O〈/italic〉〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, and the nighttime peak electron density (Nmax) have been compared with the CTIPe model simulations. The GOLD observed Nmax shows a number of significant features including a winter anomaly and an equatorial ionization anomaly. The comparison with solar proxies showed that the GOLD 〈italic〉Q〈/italic〉〈sub〉〈italic〉EUV〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 correlates very well with the EUV observations compared to the F10.7 index. The study also examined the relationship between the solar proxies and Nmax on different time scales and found that Nmax responded significantly to 〈italic〉Q〈/italic〉〈sub〉〈italic〉EUV〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 at both medium‐ and long‐term timescales. Furthermore, a low correlation between Nmax in the equatorial region and solar proxies was found. A delayed ionospheric TEC response against solar flux variations within the 27‐day solar rotation was investigated. This ionospheric delay of TEC with respect to solar flux was observed to be less than 1 day, which was reproduced in model simulations. The current study has shown that the GOLD observations can be used to investigate the delayed ionospheric response and to gain a better understanding of the influence of solar activity on the TI system.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Ionospheric‐thermospheric parameters observed by Global‐Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) ultraviolet imaging spectrograph are compared with Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics model simulations〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The delayed ionospheric response against the solar flux is less than 1 day at the time scale of the 27 days solar rotation period〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The integrated 1–45 nm solar energy flux values observed by GOLD correlate well with the F10.7 and EUV〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: http://cddis.nasa.gov/Data_and_Derived_Products/GNSS/atmospheric_products.html
    Description: http://gold.cs.ucf.edu/search/
    Description: https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/form/dx1.html
    Description: https://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/
    Description: http://guvitimed.jhuapl.edu/data/products
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8145356
    Keywords: ddc:538.7 ; CTIPe model ; O/N2 ratio ; ionospheric delay ; solar activity ; thermosphere‐ionosphere ; GOLD
    Language: English
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Mineral dust is one of the most abundant atmospheric aerosol species and has various far‐reaching effects on the climate system and adverse impacts on air quality. Satellite observations can provide spatio‐temporal information on dust emission and transport pathways. However, satellite observations of dust plumes are frequently obscured by clouds. We use a method based on established, machine‐learning‐based image in‐painting techniques to restore the spatial extent of dust plumes for the first time. We train an artificial neural net (ANN) on modern reanalysis data paired with satellite‐derived cloud masks. The trained ANN is applied to cloud‐masked, gray‐scaled images, which were derived from false color images indicating elevated dust plumes in bright magenta. The images were obtained from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager instrument onboard the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. We find up to 15% of summertime observations in West Africa and 10% of summertime observations in Nubia by satellite images miss dust plumes due to cloud cover. We use the new dust‐plume data to demonstrate a novel approach for validating spatial patterns of the operational forecasts provided by the World Meteorological Organization Dust Regional Center in Barcelona. The comparison elucidates often similar dust plume patterns in the forecasts and the satellite‐based reconstruction, but once trained, the reconstruction is computationally inexpensive. Our proposed reconstruction provides a new opportunity for validating dust aerosol transport in numerical weather models and Earth system models. It can be adapted to other aerosol species and trace gases.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Most dust and sand particles in the atmosphere originate from North Africa. Since ground‐based observations of dust plumes in North Africa are sparse, investigations often rely on satellite observations. Dust plumes are frequently obscured by clouds, making it difficult to study the full extent. We use machine‐learning methods to restore information about the extent of dust plumes beneath clouds in 2021 and 2022 at 9, 12, and 15 UTC. We use the reconstructed dust patterns to demonstrate a new way to validate the dust forecast ensemble provided by the World Meteorological Organization Dust Regional Center in Barcelona, Spain. Our proposed method is computationally inexpensive and provides new opportunities for assessing the quality of dust transport simulations. The method can be transferred to reconstruct other aerosol and trace gas plumes.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We present the first fast reconstruction of cloud‐obscured Saharan dust plumes through novel machine learning applied to satellite images〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The reconstruction algorithm utilizes partial convolutions to restore cloud‐induced gaps in gray‐scaled Meteosat Second Generation‐Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager Dust RGB images〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉World Meteorological Organization dust forecasts for North Africa mostly agree with the satellite‐based reconstruction of the dust plume extent〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
    Description: University of Cologne
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6475858
    Description: https://github.com/tobihose/Masterarbeit
    Description: https://dust.aemet.es/
    Description: https://ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/cams-global-reanalysis-eac4?tab=overview
    Description: https://navigator.eumetsat.int/product/EO:EUM:DAT:MSG:DUST
    Description: https://navigator.eumetsat.int/product/EO:EUM:DAT:MSG:CLM
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/KLICLTZ8EM9D
    Description: https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD08_D3.061
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD08_D3.061
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8278518
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; mineral dust ; North Africa ; MSG SEVIRI ; machine learning ; cloud removal ; satellite remote sensing
    Language: English
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉ABSTRACT〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉During the Middle Devonian, reef growth reached an acme, and corals and stromatoporoids colonized depositional niches commonly considered unfavourable for reefal organisms. This paper documents the detailed facies architecture and palaeoecology of a stratigraphically thin (〈italic toggle="no"〉ca〈/italic〉 12 m, ‘carpet reef’), lower Givetian reefal body exposed along the walls and ceilings of the labyrinthine passages in the Klutert Cave in western Germany. The cave exposures (〈italic toggle="no"〉ca〈/italic〉 26 000 m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 of rock surface) and data from short cores, neighbouring caves and outcrops document the growth and demise of an autoparabiostrome. The reef forms part of a parasequence with a lower carbonate and an upper clastic unit, bounded by flooding surfaces. Despite the comparatively small study area (〈italic toggle="no"〉ca〈/italic〉 1 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉), the exceptional exposure quality reveals facies changes over relatively short distances both vertical and lateral. The sedimentary matrix of the reefal build‐up contains between 20 to 95 wt.‐% of clay and quartz of silt to sand fraction. Based on this observation, the corals and stromatoporoids thrived in murky waters and under sediment‐stressed conditions. Stromatoporoids, for example, display irregular ragged flanks, a feature that is in agreement with a sediment‐stressed environment. No evidence of reduced growth rates, decreased calcification rates, or lower numbers of species is found. In fact, coral diversity and density are highest within one of the two biostromal units that show peak clastic matrix values, indicating a remarkable adaptation of reef builders to sediment‐stressed conditions. The initial settlement of rugose phaceloid corals took place on a mixed clastic–carbonate substrate (the basal flooding surface). Up‐section, a succession of coral–stromatoporoids is present that is here described in great detail. Reef collapse occurred when much of the accommodation space was filled, and argillaceous sediments suffocated stromatoporoids and corals in a protected, low‐energy environment.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:560 ; Biostrome ; corals ; Givetian ; mixed clastic–carbonate system ; reef model ; stromatoporoids
    Language: English
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The movement of active dunes is tightly linked to climatic conditions (e.g., wind regime, temperature and precipitation) as well as human influence (e.g., grazing, dune fixation and greening). Dune migration rates can be studied to draw conclusions of changing wind conditions over time. The Gonghe Basin (GB), located on the north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), offers a good testing ground for these assumptions. The intramontane basin is highly influenced by two major wind regimes: the mid‐latitude Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon. To investigate environmental changes, this study combines optical remote sensing techniques with climatic datasets. High‐resolution satellite images of the last five decades, such as CORONA KH‐4B, are used to map dunes and calculate their respective migration rates. Further, height information was extracted as well. Climatic changes from the ERA‐5 reanalysis dataset and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were processed alongside. Relating the dunes' surface processes to climate model data shows an accordance between slowing migration, expanding vegetation and a decrease in sand drift potential. From 1968 to present time, an average dune migration rate of 7.3 m a〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 was extracted from the satellite images, with an overall reduction of −1.81 m a〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. The resultant drift potential (RDP) values for the GB are calculated to be below 10 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 s〈sup〉−3〈/sup〉 with a spatial decrease, following a direction from the NW to the SE, fitting well with a corresponding decrease in the migration rates. Our results indicate a good agreement between the development of aeolian landforms and the ERA‐5 climate reanalysis model data, even in a high‐altitude setting with complex topography, which is known to influence such datasets.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉We investigate climatic changes of the past 5 decades in the Gonghe Basin by using a wide range of remote sensing data. Era‐5 data is compared with dune migration rates. The dunes' behaviour is very well represented within the ERA‐5 data and shows a slowing migration over the past five decades. This fits well to climatic developments, like increasing precipitation and temperature. Sand drift potential was calculated and interpolated to pinpoint resultant drift potential (RDP) values to individual barchans. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="esp5651-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:01979337:media:esp5651:esp5651-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany (BMBF)
    Description: National Key Research and Development Program of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100012166
    Keywords: ddc:551.3 ; climate change ; CORONA KH‐4B ; dunes ; ERA‐5 ; satellite remote sensing ; Tibetan Plateau
    Language: English
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Erzgebirge ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) garnet peridotite includes scarce layers of garnet pyroxenite, nodules of garnetite and, very rarely, of eclogite. Peridotite‐hosted eclogite shows the same subalkali‐basaltic bulk rock composition, mineral assemblage and peak conditions as gneiss‐hosted eclogite present in the same UHP unit. Garnetite has considerably more Mg, moderately enhanced Ca and Fe and significantly lower contents of Na, Ti, P, K and Si than eclogite, whereas Al is very similar. In addition, the compatible trace elements (Ni, Co, Cr, V) are elevated and most incompatible elements (Zr, Hf, Y, Sr, Rb and rare Earth elements [REE]) are depleted in garnetite relative to eclogite. In contrast to other large ion lithophile elements (LILEs), Pb (+121%) and Ba (+83%) are strongly enriched. The REE patterns of garnetite are characterized by depletion of light and heavy REE and a medium REE hump indicative of metasomatism, features being absent in eclogite. An exceptional garnetite sample shows an REE distribution similar to that of eclogite. Garnetite is interpreted to have formed from the same, but metasomatically altered, igneous protolith as eclogite. Except for Ba and Pb, the chemical signature of garnetite is explained best by metasomatic changes of its basaltic protolith caused by serpentinization of the host peridotite. Garnetite is chemically similar to basaltic rodingite/metarodingite. Although rodingite is commonly more enriched in Ca, there are also examples with moderately enhanced Ca matching the composition of Erzgebirge garnetite. Limited Ca metasomatism is attributed to the preservation of Ca in peridotite during hydrous alteration. This can be explained by incomplete serpentinization favouring metastable survival of the original clinopyroxene. In this case, most Ca is retained in peridotite and not available for infiltration and metasomatism of the garnetite protolith. This inescapable consequence is supported by the fact that clinopyroxene is part of the garnet peridotite UHP assemblage, which would not be the case if Ca had been removed from the protolith prior to high‐pressure metamorphism. The enrichment of compatible elements in garnetite is attributed to decomposition of peridotitic olivine (Ni, Co) and spinel (Cr, V) during serpentinization. Enrichment of Ba and Pb contrasts the behaviour of other LILEs and is ascribed to dehydration of the serpentinized peridotite (deserpentinization). This requires two separate stages of metasomatism: (1) intense chemical alteration of the basaltic garnetite precursor, together with serpentinization of peridotite at the ocean floor or during incipient subduction; and (2) prograde metamorphism and dehydration of serpentinite during continued subduction, thereby releasing Pb–Ba‐rich fluids that reacted with associated metabasalt. Finally, subduction to >100 km and UHP metamorphism of all lithologies led to formation of garnetite, eclogite and garnet pyroxenite hosted by co‐facial garnet peridotite as observed in the Erzgebirge.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; Erzgebirge ; garnetite ; rodingitization ; serpentinization ; UHP metamorphism
    Language: English
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Due to the inherently fluid‐mobile nature of W, the 〈sup〉182〈/sup〉W record of the early Earth may have been obscured by fluid‐induced mobilization of W. To investigate W mobilization in Archean greenstone sequences, we analyzed 〈sup〉182〈/sup〉W isotope systematics and major and trace element concentrations in samples from the 3.53 Ga old Onverwacht Group of the Kaapvaal Craton (South Africa) and the >3.51 Ga old Badampahar Group of the Singhbhum Craton (India). Our results for mafic and ultramafic metavolcanic rocks show W/Th ratios significantly higher than primary magmatic values, which suggests fluid‐induced W enrichment. Samples least affected by secondary W enrichment (W/Th 〈 0.26) show no resolvable W isotope anomalies from modern mantle values in both cratons. Samples from the Kaapvaal Craton with elevated W/Th exhibit deficits in 〈sup〉182〈/sup〉W as low as −8.1 ± 4.3 ppm compared to the modern mantle. Covariations of μ〈sup〉182〈/sup〉W with W/Th, and Ce/Pb suggest that negative isotope signatures were introduced during secondary fluid‐mediated processes. The enrichment of W is most evident in altered ultramafic rocks comprising serpentine, resulting in additional covariations between MgO, LOI, and W/Th. The W isotope composition of serpentinized komatiites reflects the composition of younger intruding granitoids. We therefore infer the latter as a possible source of W‐rich fluids. The Badampahar Group samples exhibit little W isotope variability. A well‐resolved 〈sup〉182〈/sup〉W deficit of −6.2 ± 2.9 ppm was determined in a single komatiite sample, which indicates an unknown fluid source, currently not represented in any other unit of the Singhbhum Craton.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The tungsten (W) isotope composition of ancient rocks can be used to trace processes that occurred during Earth's early evolution. However, interactions between rocks and fluids may alter the W concentration and therefore influence the interpretation of W isotope data. To identify the source of such fluids and the processes by which they affect the W isotope composition of rocks, we analyzed ancient rock samples from South Africa and India. The isotope composition of rocks with a low W concentration reflects that of the modern Earth. Therefore, they do not trace the processes that occurred during Earth's early evolution. Samples from South Africa with untypically high W concentrations show a different isotopic composition. The variation in the W isotope signature correlates with other chemical indices that are susceptible to modification by fluid‐related processes. This shows that the W within the rocks is derived from an external fluid source and not from their original magmatic source. Samples with the highest W enrichment have a similar isotope composition as spatially associated intrusive rocks. By inference, the latter likely represent the source of W‐rich fluids. The samples from India show similar enrichment in W, indicating similar fluid‐related processes and W sources at both localities.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The magmatic sources of metavolcanic rocks from the Onverwacht Group and the Badampahar Group do not exhibit W isotope anomalies〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Negative W isotope signatures in the Onverwacht Group are likely derived from fluids sourced from younger intrusive granitoids〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Felsic intrusive rocks are a major source of W‐rich fluids in Paleoarchean greenstone units〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/digis.2023.005
    Keywords: ddc:551.9 ; fluid‐mobility ; Kaapvaal ; Singhbhum ; 182W ; tungsten isotopes
    Language: English
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Coastal protection in the form of dike constructions has a long history at the German North Frisian coast dating back to the High Middle Ages. As the vast majority of the dikes built prior to the devastating storm surges of the Middle Ages have been irretrievably destroyed, mostly sparse remains and only a few well preserved of these medieval dikes are found along the German North Frisian coast and within the Wadden Sea. Not all details of their construction and dimensions are yet understood. In the present case study, we investigate the historical Schardeich on the island of Pellworm in the German North Sea in a noninvasive way using shear waves (SH‐waves). For the data interpretation, we applied a combination of seismic full waveform inversion and classical seismic reflection imaging to determine the interior structure of the dike and its underlying layers at the highest possible resolution. The results obtained on land are compared with dike remains found in the tidal flats. These remains show up in marine seismic sections as characteristic reflections, which probably represent a compaction layer caused by the load of the former dike. For ground truthing, we compare the seismic results with internal dike structures found in nearby excavations. The comparison highlights that FWI is a reliable tool for near‐surface archaeological prospecting. We find that SH‐wave FWI provides decimetre‐scale velocity and density models that allow, together with the seismic reflection section, to determine distinct construction phases of the dike. The investigated dike further shows a depression at base level of about 0.75 m, which is of the same order as observed for the dike base reflections in the tidal flats. Transferring these findings to the dike remains mapped in the tidal flats, we derive a height of the former dike from 2.2 to 4.4 m.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:622.1592 ; archaeogeophysics ; high‐resolution seismic reflection imaging ; seismic full waveform inversion ; shear‐wave seismic
    Language: English
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Regardless of the steady increase of computing power during the last decades, numerical models in a 3D spherical shell are only used in specific setups to investigate the thermochemical convection in planetary interiors, while 2D geometries are typically favored in most exploratory studies involving a broad range of parameters. The 2D cylindrical and the more recent 2D spherical annulus geometries are predominantly used in this context, but the extent to how well they reproduce the 3D spherical shell results in comparison to each other and in which setup has not yet been extensively investigated. Here we performed a thorough and systematic study in order to assess which 2D geometry reproduces best the 3D spherical shell. In a first set of models, we investigated the effects of the geometry on thermal convection in steady‐state setups while varying a broad range of parameters. Additional thermal evolution models of three terrestrial bodies, namely Mercury, the Moon, and Mars, which have different interior structures, were used to compare the 2D and 3D geometries. Our investigations show that the 2D spherical annulus geometry provides results closer to models in a 3D spherical shell compared to the 2D cylindrical geometry. Our study indicates where acceptable differences can be expected when using a 2D instead of a 3D geometry and where to be cautious when interpreting the results.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In geodynamic modeling, numerical models are used in order to investigate how the interior of a terrestrial planet evolves from the earliest stage, after the planetary formation, up to present day. Often, the mathematical equations that are used to model the physical processes in the interior of rocky planets are discretized and solved using geometric meshes. The most commonly applied geometries are the 3D spherical shell, the 2D cylinder, and the 2D spherical annulus. While being the most accurate and realistic, the 3D geometry is expensive in terms of computing power and time of execution. On the other hand, 2D geometries provide a reduced accuracy but are computationally faster. Here we perform an extensive comparison between 2D and 3D geometries in scenarios of increasing complexity. The 2D spherical annulus geometry shows much closer results to the 3D spherical shell when compared to the 2D cylinder and should be given preference in 2D modeling studies.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Interior dynamics models using the 2D spherical annulus geometry match the results of a 3D spherical shell better than the 2D cylinder〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The difference between 2D and 3D geometries decreases when models are heated from below by the core and from within by radioactive elements〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The 2D spherical annulus shows negligible differences to 3D for the thermal evolution of Mercury and the Moon, and acceptable values for Mars〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts Baden‐Württemberg
    Description: Federal Ministry of Education and Research
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8047757
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; mantle convection ; thermal evolution ; spherical annulus ; Mars ; Moon ; Mercury
    Language: English
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉As projected by multiple climate models, short‐duration heavy precipitation events (SDHPEs) are expected to intensify particularly quickly under the changing climate posing substantial risk to natural and human systems. Yet over the years, SDHPEs have received less scientific attention than long‐duration heavy precipitation events (LDHPEs), mainly due to the limitations of measurement systems. Our aim is to provide insight into spatial and temporal variability of SDHPEs detected by the radar network of the 〈italic toggle="no"〉Deutscher Wetterdienst〈/italic〉 (DWD) in Germany from 2001 to 2020 as well as to explore their links to circulation patterns (CPs). The study is based on the Catalogue of Radar‐based heavy Rainfall Events (CatRaRE) generated using reprocessed gauge‐adjusted data of the DWD radar network as well as a new numerical method for classifying CPs over Central Europe called “〈italic toggle="no"〉Großwetterlagen〈/italic〉 for Reanalyses” (GWL‐REA). The results have demonstrated that SDHPEs, which are defined based on either locally valid precipitation values with a return period of 5 years (CatRaRE T5) or absolute precipitation values equal to DWD Warning Level 3 (CatRaRE W3), are common phenomena occurring most frequently in the afternoon hours of the summer season. They constitute up to 90% of all heavy precipitation events included in the catalogues covering relatively small areas—the median area of SDHPEs ranges from 22 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5) to 24 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3), while the median area of LDHPEs ranges from 175 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3) to 184 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5). As compared to LDHPEs, SDHPEs are generated by a wider spectrum of circulation conditions, including not only cyclonic but also anticyclonic CPs. In the warm season, the anticyclonic CPs, often accompanied by air mass advection from the south, can induce high thermal instability leading to the development of relatively small, isolated convective cells, which often cannot be captured by rain gauge stations.〈/p〉
    Description: Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV)
    Description: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/catrare/catrare.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; CatRaRE ; circulation patterns ; GWL‐REA ; heavy precipitation events ; long‐duration precipitation ; radar data ; short‐duration precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: This paper applies a mental model approach to study the role of tenure security in farmers’ decisionmaking on agricultural investment in Uganda. We investigate the role that both perceived tenure security and formal land rights, measured by the possession of land certificates, play. Our focus is on investment in improved seeds, a widely applied strategy in agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The study design leverages the roll-out of a large land demarcation and registration project, which creates exogenous variation in farmers’ tenure security. Results show that, in contrast to expectations derived from economic theory, tenure security plays only a minor role in farmers’ decision-making process to invest in improved seeds. Out of 15 potential factors determining a farmer’s investment decision, both perceived tenure security and possession of a land certificate are among the least chosen factors, regardless of whether or not households participated in the land registration project. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that female-headed households value formalized land rights more than male-headed households.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
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