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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This paper presents an approach for a quantitative analysis of movement patterns of nomadic households based on GPS trajectories. We distributed GPS loggers to 400 Mongolian herder households who carried them over a 9-month period, continuously recording position data every 30 minutes. A total of 142 of the resulting trajectories fulfilled our data quality criteria and were considered during the analysis. Based on this data, we derive summary indicators describing key parameters of the households' mobility including measures of distance and number of movements as well as shape characteristics of the trajectories. We conduct an explorative statistical analysis of these summary indicators to investigate patterns in the nomadic mobility. We identify three movement strategies based on the number of dierent campsite locations and the distances traveled between campsites. We also compare the results to the existing literature on the mobility of Mongolian herders. Our findings show that GPS-based studies present a suitable framework to quantitatively analyze different movement strategies of nomadic herders.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    In:  Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This article examines the effects of extreme weather events on internal migration in Mongolia. Our focus is on dzuds , extremely harsh winters characterized by very cold temperature, snowfall anomalies, and/or storms causing very high livestock mortality. We exploit exogenous variation in the intensity of extreme winter events across time and space to identify their causal impacts on permanent domestic migration. Our database is a time series of migration and population data at provincial and district level from official population registries, spanning the 1992-2018 period. Results obtained with a two-way fixed effects panel estimator show that extreme winter events cause significant and sizeable permanent out-migration from affected provinces for up to two years after an event. These effects are confirmed when considering net change rates in the overall population at the district level. The occurrence of extreme winter events is also a strong predictor for declines in the local population of pastoralist households, the socio-economic group most affected by those events. This suggests that the abandonment of pastoralist livelihoods is an important channel through which climate affects within-country migration.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Our study analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We study the effects of violence on both the duration time to the first birth in the early post-genocide period and on the total number of post-genocide births per woman up to 15 years following the conflict. We use individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys, estimating survival and count data models. This article contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences fertility: (1) the type of violence exposure as measured by the death of a child or sibling, and (2) the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the district-level sex ratio. Results indicate the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a child replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short-run and the long-run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, especially for older women.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Extreme weather events increasingly threaten the economic situation of households and enterprises around the world. Insurance against extreme weather events is among the climate change adaptation instruments that are currently discussed by the policy community. This overview paper provides a synopsis of the state of research on insurance against extreme weather events, outlining advantages and limitations inherent in three main types of insurance: indemnity-based insurance, index-based insurance, and insurance-linked securities. The paper discusses issues related to insurance uptake, distributional effects, misleading incentives and potentially negative side effects, as well as the role of the state.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: Extreme weather conditions in the face of due to climate change often disproportionately affects the weakest members of society. Agricultural insurance programs that are specifically designed specifically for smallholders in developing countries are valuable tools that can help farmers to cope with the resulting risks. A broad range of methods including household surveys, experimental games, and agent-based models have been used to assess and improve the effectiveness of such climate insurance products. In addition Furthermore, process-based crop models have been used to derive suitable insurance indices. However, climate change raises specific socioeconomic andas well as environmental challenges that need to be considered when designing insurance schemes. We argue that, in light of these pressing challenges, some of the methodological approaches currently applied to study climate insurance reach their limits when applied independently. This has fundamental implications. On the one hand, not all undesired side effects of insurance can be detected and, on the other hand, insurance indices cannot be derived sufficiently well. We therefore advocate a sound combination of different methods, especially by linking empirical analyses and modelling, and underline the resulting potential with the help of stylized examples. Our study highlights how methodological synergies can make climate insurance products more effective in supporting the most vulnerable households, especially under changing climatic conditions.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: How does subjective well-being depend on the fate of others when a covariate shock strikes? We address this question by providing novel evidence on the impact of shock-induced damages experienced by individuals and their reference group on life satisfaction. We do so by examining the case of pastoralists in Mongolia, who faced a once-in-50-years winter disaster. Our identification strategy exploits the quasi-experimental nature of the extreme event. The empirical analysis builds on a detailed household panel survey, complemented with aggregated climate data and historic livestock census data. Results show that exposure to the extreme event significantly and strongly reduces subjective well-being even 4–5 years after the event occurred. The negative shock impact is amplified by observing peers doing economically worse. Similarly, exposure to the extreme event increases the perceived inequality among households with assets at risk. We argue that the event increased sectoral disparities between pastoralists and those households not engaged in agriculture.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-05-30
    Description: This paper tests whether need or political economy factors determine the allocation of humanitarian aid in the wake of the 2015/16 winter disaster in Mongolia. The identification strategy exploits the exogenous nature of the extremely cold, snowy winter and its spatial variation across Mongolia as well as the fact that the Government defined clear criteria of need across districts based on meteorological risk projections. Using rich district-level data, we distinguish between humanitarian aid delivered by the Mongolian Government and by international donors at the extensive margin (whether a district received any aid) and intensive margin (targeted households per district). Results show that projected need is the strongest predictor for the allocation of international humanitarian aid across districts. Projected need is less relevant for the allocation of governmental humanitarian aid. We do not find evidence that political alignment or core voter considerations matter for either governmental or international humanitarian aid in this young democracy.
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-02-02
    Description: This study examines how the expansion of mobile phone networks affects rural development in Mongolia. The database is a detailed household panel survey with four waves implemented in western Mongolia, spanning the 2012-2021 period, which we combine with data on mobile phone towers. Our identification strategy exploits the uneven roll-out of mobile phone networks across rural areas over time. Using a two-way fixed effects approach, we show that network expansion strongly and significantly increases total household income of pastoralist households. The effect is driven by increased income from agriculture, particularly by higher producer prices for animal byproducts, improved access to transfer income, and increased household mobility. The expansion of mobile phone networks decreases income diversification among pastoralists. Instead, households specialize in agriculture. While findings suggest that investments in telecommunication infrastructure can help rural households to sustain a livelihood in the agricultural sector, the specialization in agriculture may increase households’ vulnerability to climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    In:  Ruhr Economic Papers
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-03-26
    Description: This study examines the impact of drought on the land ownership rights of smallholder farmers in Uganda. Three waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey are combined with an indicator for drought, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Using a household fixed effects approach, we exploit spatial and temporal variation in drought conditions to identify its effect on households’ self-reported willingness to acquire land ownership rights, both at the extensive and intensive margins. Results show that exposure to drought lowers households’ intentions to purchase land and substantially reduces the price households are willing to pay for land. The effects persist over time and are robust to different specifications. Our findings suggest that drought exposure limits the operating space for farmers wishing to purchase land.
    Language: English
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