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  • 1
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, (2020), ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-07-13
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2016-10-04
    Beschreibung: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is planned for mid-2017 to mid-2019, centred on 2018. Its goal is to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities. With a focus on time scales from hours to a season, YOPP is a major initiative of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP is being planned and coordinated by the PPP Steering Group together with representatives from partners and other initiatives, including the World Climate Research Programme’s Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (enhanced coverage, higher-quality observations). 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes. 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in (un)coupled models used for prediction. 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data. 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from hours to a season. 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes, assess skill of models representing these linkages, and determine the impact of improved polar prediction on forecast skill in lower latitudes. 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user- relevant parameters. 8. Identify various stakeholders and establish their decisionmaking needs with respect to weather, climate, ice, and related environmental services. 9. Assess the costs and benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of users and services. 10. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. YOPP is implemented in three distinct phases. During the YOPP Preparation Phase (2013 through to mid-2017) this Implementation Plan was developed, which includes key outcomes of consultations with partners at the YOPP Summit in July 2015. Plans will be further developed and refined through focused international workshops. There will be engagement with stakeholders and arrangement of funding, coordination of observations and modelling activities, and preparatory research. During the YOPP Core Phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019), four elements will be staged: intensive observing periods for both hemispheres, a complementary intensive modelling and prediction period, a period of enhanced monitoring of forecast use in decisionmaking including verification, and a special educational effort. Finally, during the YOPP Consolidation Phase (mid-2019 to 2022) the legacy of data, science and publications will be organized. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group provides endorsement throughout the YOPP phases for projects that contribute to YOPP. This process facilitates coordination and enhances visibility, communication, and networking.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Miscellaneous , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2015-04-28
    Beschreibung: In response to a growing interest in the Arctic in recent years, the number of real-time short-medium range sea ice prediction systems has been increasing, and now includes several systems covering the full Arctic Ocean, for example: the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS; Posey et al., 2010), Towards an Operational Prediction system for the North Atlantic European coastal Zones (TOPAZ; Bertino and Lisæter, 2008), and the Canadian Centre for Marine and Environmental Prediction’s Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS; Smith et al., 2015) and Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS; Lemieux et al., 2015; Buehner et al., 2013). In addition, numerous ice-ocean hindcasts1 and reanalyses have been made and intercompared through the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP; Johnson et al., 2007) and the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP; Balmaseda et al., 2015). Despite this significant effort, it is difficult to ascertain the true skill of these prediction systems and their primary sources of error, as reliable observations are limited and verification techniques tend to vary from one group to another. As a result, the potential benefits of sea ice prediction for various user groups (e.g. national ice services, marine transportation and resource exploitation, coupling with numerical weather prediction) have been hindered by uncertainty regarding the skillfulness of predictions and how best to use them. An intercomparison of sea ice fields from existing systems by the GODAE Oceanview Intercomparison and Validation Task Team (www.godae.org) has been initiated, although a larger coordinated international effort is needed. The upcoming Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) aims to address these challenges in the context of a broader initiative toward improved polar environmental predictions for both hemispheres.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , notRev
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-05-15
    Beschreibung: There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The reduced reliability of polar predictions may affect the quality of various applications including search and rescue, coupling with numerical weather and seasonal predictions, historical reconstructions (reanalysis), aquaculture and environmental management including environmental emergency response. Here, we outline the status of existing near-real time ocean observational efforts in polar regions, discuss gaps, and explore perspectives for the future. Specific recommendations include a renewed call for open access to data, especially real-time data, as a critical capability for improved sea ice and weather forecasting and other environmental prediction needs. Dedicated efforts are also needed to make use of additional observations made as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP; 2017–2019) to inform optimal observing system design. To provide a polar extension to the Argo network, it is recommended that a network of ice-borne sea ice and upper-ocean observing buoys be deployed and supported operationally in ice-covered areas together with autonomous profiling floats and gliders (potentially with ice detection capability) in seasonally ice covered seas. Finally, additional efforts to better measure and parameterize surface exchanges in polar regions are much needed to improve coupled environmental prediction.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-05-08
    Beschreibung: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , peerRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Investigational new drugs 17 (1999), S. 271-284 
    ISSN: 1573-0646
    Schlagwort(e): antiandrogens ; androgen receptor ; prostate cancer ; hormonal therapy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Medizin
    Notizen: Abstract Antiandrogens competitively inhibit ligand binding to the androgen receptor (AR), and are used therapeutically in prostate cancer patients. The AR functions as a ligand dependent transcription factor that transduces androgen binding into increased transcription of androgen dependent genes. AR blockade induces programmed cell death in the vast majority of malignant and benign prostate cancer cells that have not previously been exposed to androgen ablation. The antiandrogens are divided structurally into the steroidal and non steroidal agents. The biological effects of the steroidal versus nonsteroidal agents are distinguished by differences in their effects on serum testosterone levels, and by their activity at receptors other than the androgen receptor. There is extensive clinical experience in the palliative and curative therapy of prostate cancer using antiandrogens as monotherapy or antiandrogens in combination with luteinizing hormone agonists or surgical castration. Prolonged therapy with antiandrogens selects for mutations in the AR that change the AR ligand specificity and permits stimulation by ligands that are usually inhibitory. These mutations give insight into one of the means by which prostate cancer progresses despite antiandrogen therapy, and also helps to explain the antiandrogen withdrawal syndrome. Areas of active research that may affect the future use of antiandrogens include the ongoing evaluation of antiandrogens in combination with 5 alpha reductase inhibitors to achieve AR blockade without inducing castrate testosterone levels. There is also interest in developing selective androgen receptor modulators (SARM) that can achieve AR blockade without causing the increased testosterone levels produced by the nonsteroidal antiandrogens currently in use.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-06-12
    Beschreibung: Capulse Summary The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere had a Special Observing Period (SOP) during the 2018-2019 austral summer. Activities during and resulting from the Antarctic SOP are described.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-11-01
    Print ISSN: 0921-8181
    Digitale ISSN: 1872-6364
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von Elsevier
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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